The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems

Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.     

Poleward Migration of Early Angiosperm Flora: Angiosperms only displaced the relict Jurassic-type flora at high latitudes in Late Cretaceous time

1) During the opening phase of the Early Cretaceous (Neocomian), angiosperms commenced to invade lowland basins of deposition at generally lower latitudes. They reached high northern and middle southern latitudes at the close of the epoch (Albian) and only replaced the relict Jurassic-type vegetation at high latitudes during the early part of Late Cretaceous time. 2) This poleward migration of angiosperms is consistent with the theory that the phylum had its center of origin and dispersal at tropical latitudes, which ranged between 45 degrees N and 45 degrees S in pre-Cretaceous time. 3) Recognition of the time-space factor involved in the Early Cretaceous poleward migration of angiosperms removes most of the conflicts in the testimony on age supplied by fossil plants and by marine invertebrates-conflicts which have persisted for nearly a century (17).     

Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming

The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate. Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometers per decade. These rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported. The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes. However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change. Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species.     

The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate

A general circulation model that simulated changes in solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone was used to investigate the response of the atmosphere to the 11-year solar activity cycle. At solar maximum, a warming of the summer stratosphere was found to strengthen easterly winds, which penetrated into the equatorial upper troposphere, causing poleward shifts in the positions of the subtropical westerly jets, broadening of the tropical Hadley circulations, and poleward shifts of the storm tracks. These effects are similar to, although generally smaller in magnitude than, those observed in nature. A simulation in which only solar irradiance was changed showed a much weaker response.     

Pleistocene changes in the fauna and flora of South america

In recent years, the view that Pleistocene climatic events played a major role in the evolution of the biotas of southern, primarily tropical continents has begun to displace the previously held conviction that these areas remained relatively stable during the Quaternary. Studies of speciation patterns of high Andean plant and avian taxa (7-14) have led to the conclusion that Pleistocene climatic events were the factors that ultimately shaped the patterns now observed in the paramo-puna and the related Patagonian flora and fauna. The final uplift of the Andes at the end of the Tertiary automatically limits the age of the high Andean habitats and their biotas to the Quaternary. Within this period, the number of ecological fluctuations caused by the glaciations could easily have provided the mechanism behind the patterns now present in these habitats (Appendix, 1; Figs. 1 and 2; Table 1). In glacial periods, when vegetation belts, were lowered, organisms in the paramo-puna habitat were allowed to expand their ranges. In interglacial periods, these taxa were isolated on disjunct peaks, where differentiation could occur. At times of ice expansion, glacial tongues and lakes provided local barriers to gene exchange, whereas in warm, interglacial times, dry river valleys were a major deterrent to the interbreeding of populations on different mountains (Fig. 2; Table 2). A preliminary analysis of about 10 to 12 percent of the total South American avifauna (14), subsequent to the study of the high Andean biota, suggested that the birds of all the major habitats of the continent possess, with about equal frequency, similar stages of speciation. This correspondence in levels of evolution indicated that the avifauna of vegetation zones which were thought to have been more stable (for example, tropical rainforests) are as actively speciating as are those of the more recent paramo-puna habitats. More intensive work on lowland tropical taxa (16, 19-21) and recent work on montane forest elements (40) now justify the conclusion that the floras and faunas of these areas were also greatly affected by Pleistocene climatic shifts. In the broad region of South America that lies within the tropics, a series of humid-arid cycles (Appendix, 6, 8-10) drastically and repeatedly altered vegetation patterns during the Quaternary. Both montane and lowland rainforests were fragmented during dry periods and were able to reexpand during humid phases. Speciation of forest elements was initiated-and sometimes completed-in isolated patches of the fragmented forest. Secondary contact, with hybridization or reunition of populations that did not become reproductively isolated, occurred in periods of reexpansion. These biological data, combined with supportive geological evidence (Appendix, 1-11), show that climatic events during the last million or so years have affected the biota of South America as much as the Pleistocene glacial changes affected the biotas of Eurasia and North America. Since most of South America lies within tropical latitudes, it is suggested here that part of the diversity of species in the tropical areas of this continent is due to two historical factors: the lack of wholesale elimination of species (compared with northern and high latitudes), and ample opportunity for speciation in successive periods of ecological isolation. The apparent paradox of the wealth of species in the "stable tropics" is partially explained by the fact that the tropics have probably been quite unstable, from the point of view of their biotas, during the Pleistocene and perhaps part of the Tertiary.     

Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA

We provide a century-scale view of small-mammal responses to global warming, without confounding effects of land-use change, by repeating Grinnell's early-20th century survey across a 3000-meter-elevation gradient that spans Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Using occupancy modeling to control for variation in detectability, we show substantial ( approximately 500 meters on average) upward changes in elevational limits for half of 28 species monitored, consistent with the observed approximately 3 degrees C increase in minimum temperatures. Formerly low-elevation species expanded their ranges and high-elevation species contracted theirs, leading to changed community composition at mid- and high elevations. Elevational replacement among congeners changed because species' responses were idiosyncratic. Though some high-elevation species are threatened, protection of elevation gradients allows other species to respond via migration.     

Recent plant diversity changes on Europe's mountain summits

In mountainous regions, climate warming is expected to shift species' ranges to higher altitudes. Evidence for such shifts is still mostly from revisitations of historical sites. We present recent (2001 to 2008) changes in vascular plant species richness observed in a standardized monitoring network across Europe's major mountain ranges. Species have moved upslope on average. However, these shifts had opposite effects on the summit floras' species richness in boreal-temperate mountain regions (+3.9 species on average) and Mediterranean mountain regions (-1.4 species), probably because recent climatic trends have decreased the availability of water in the European south. Because Mediterranean mountains are particularly rich in endemic species, a continuation of these trends might shrink the European mountain flora, despite an average increase in summit species richness across the region.     

Scatterers in Triton's Atmosphere: Implications for the Seasonal Volatile Cycle

Nitrogen and methane ices on the surface of Triton, Neptune's largest satellite, are exchanged between the summer and winter hemispheres on a seasonal time scale. Images of the satellite's sky obtained by the Voyager 2 spacecraft show the presence of several types of scattering materials that provide insights into this seasonal cycle of volatiles. Discrete clouds, probably composed of N(2) ice particles, arise in regions of active sublimation. They are found chiefly poleward of 30 degrees S in the southern, summer hemisphere. Haze particles, probably made of hydrocarbon ices, are present above most, but not all places. Recent snowfall may have occurred at low southern latitudes in places where they are absent. The latent heat released in the formation of the discrete clouds may have a major impact on the thermal balance of the lower atmosphere. Triton may have been less red at the time of the Voyager flyby than 12 years earlier due to recent N(2) snowfall at a wide range of latitudes.     

Super ENSO and global climate oscillations at millennial time scales

The late Pleistocene history of seawater temperature and salinity variability in the western tropical Pacific warm pool is reconstructed from oxygen isotope (delta18O) and magnesium/calcium composition of planktonic foraminifera. Differentiating the calcite delta18O record into components of temperature and local water delta18O reveals a dominant salinity signal that varied in accord with Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles over Greenland. Salinities were higher at times of high-latitude cooling and were lower during interstadials. The pattern and magnitude of the salinity variations imply shifts in the tropical Pacific ocean/atmosphere system analogous to modern El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Ni?o conditions correlate with stadials at high latitudes, whereas La Ni?a conditions correlate with interstadials. Millennial-scale shifts in atmospheric convection away from the western tropical Pacific may explain many paleo-observations, including lower atmospheric CO2, N2O, and CH4 during stadials and patterns of extratropical ocean variability that have tropical source functions that are negatively correlated with El Ni?o.     

Early warming of tropical South America at the last glacial-interglacial transition

Glaciation in the humid tropical Andes is a sensitive indicator of mean annual temperature. Here, we present sedimentological data from lakes beyond the glacial limit in the tropical Andes indicating that deglaciation from the Last Glacial Maximum led substantial warming at high northern latitudes. Deglaciation from glacial maximum positions at Lake Titicaca, Peru/Bolivia (16 degrees S), and Lake Junin, Peru (11 degrees S), occurred 22,000 to 19,500 calendar years before the present, several thousand years before the B?lling-Aller?d warming of the Northern Hemisphere and deglaciation of the Sierra Nevada, United States (36.5 degrees to 38 degrees N). The tropical Andes deglaciated while climatic conditions remained regionally wet, which reflects the dominant control of mean annual temperature on tropical glaciation.     

Marine biodiversity hotspots and conservation priorities for tropical reefs

Coral reefs are the most biologically diverse of shallow water marine ecosystems but are being degraded worldwide by human activities and climate warming. Analyses of the geographic ranges of 3235 species of reef fish, corals, snails, and lobsters revealed that between 7.2% and 53.6% of each taxon have highly restricted ranges, rendering them vulnerable to extinction. Restricted-range species are clustered into centers of endemism, like those described for terrestrial taxa. The 10 richest centers of endemism cover 15.8% of the world's coral reefs (0.012% of the oceans) but include between 44.8 and 54.2% of the restricted-range species. Many occur in regions where reefs are being severely affected by people, potentially leading to numerous extinctions. Threatened centers of endemism are major biodiversity hotspots, and conservation efforts targeted toward them could help avert the loss of tropical reef biodiversity.     

Migratory flight of insect pests within a year-round distribution: European corn borer as a case study

Insect migratory flight differs fundamentally from most other kinds of flight behavior, in that it is non-appetitive. The adult is not searching for anything, and migratory flight is not terminated by encounters with potential resources. Many insect pests of agricultural crops are long-distance migrants, moving from lower latitudes where they overwinter to higher latitudes in the spring to exploit superabundant, but seasonally ephemeral, host crops. The migratory nature of these pests is somewhat easy to recognize because of their sudden appearance in areas where they had been absent only a day or two earlier. Many other serious pests survive hostile winter conditions by diapausing, and therefore do not require migration to move between overwintering and breeding ranges. Yet there is evidence of migratory behavior engaged in by several pest species that inhabit high latitudes year-round. In these cases, the consequences of migratory flight are not immediately noticeable at the population level, because migration takes place for the most part within their larger year-round distribution. Nevertheless, the potential population-level consequences can be quite important in the contexts of pest management and insect resistance management. As a case study, I review the evidence for migratory flight behavior by individual European corn borer adults, and discuss the importance of understanding it. The kind of migratory behavior posited for pest species inhabiting a permanent distribution may be more common than we realize.     

The latitudinal gradient in recent speciation and extinction rates of birds and mammals

Although the tropics harbor greater numbers of species than do temperate zones, it is not known whether the rates of speciation and extinction also follow a latitudinal gradient. By sampling birds and mammals, we found that the distribution of the evolutionary ages of sister species-pairs of species in which each is the other's closest relative-adheres to a latitudinal gradient. The time to divergence for sister species is shorter at high latitudes and longer in the tropics. Birth-death models fitting these data estimate that the highest recent speciation and extinction rates occur at high latitudes and decline toward the tropics. These results conflict with the prevailing view that links high tropical diversity to elevated tropical speciation rates. Instead, our findings suggest that faster turnover at high latitudes contributes to the latitudinal diversity gradient.     

Weather variability, climatic change, and grain production

A cooling trend in the world's climate would have serious effects in the monsoon belts depending on whether or not the recent changes in snow and ice cover in the polar regions were responsible for the droughts in Africa and the failure of the monsoons over South Asia. The cooling and shrinking of the atmosphere at the higher latitudes is believed to have brought the subtropical anticyclones nearer to the tropical rainbelt and have caused a shifting of the monsoon belt. The regions that would be most severely affected by a continuation of the cooling trend to the year 2000 would be the higher latitudes (above 50 degrees) where spring wheat is grown and the warm band below 30 degrees latitude where rice is the principal grain crop. Weather variability is a much more important consideration in grain production than a cooling trend. Our highest yields are made when weather is near normal or slightly cooler than normal. It is when weather variables deviate greatly from normal that yields are lowest. Even if the weather does trend toward the coolness of a century ago yields will not be reduced significantly unless the weather becomes more varible.     

A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century

Spatial fingerprints of climate change on biotic communities are usually associated with changes in the distribution of species at their latitudinal or altitudinal extremes. By comparing the altitudinal distribution of 171 forest plant species between 1905 and 1985 and 1986 and 2005 along the entire elevation range (0 to 2600 meters above sea level) in west Europe, we show that climate warming has resulted in a significant upward shift in species optimum elevation averaging 29 meters per decade. The shift is larger for species restricted to mountain habitats and for grassy species, which are characterized by faster population turnover. Our study shows that climate change affects the spatial core of the distributional range of plant species, in addition to their distributional margins, as previously reported.     

Topography of the northern hemisphere of Mercury from MESSENGER laser altimetry

Laser altimetry by the MESSENGER spacecraft has yielded a topographic model of the northern hemisphere of Mercury. The dynamic range of elevations is considerably smaller than those of Mars or the Moon. The most prominent feature is an extensive lowland at high northern latitudes that hosts the volcanic northern plains. Within this lowland is a broad topographic rise that experienced uplift after plains emplacement. The interior of the 1500-km-diameter Caloris impact basin has been modified so that part of the basin floor now stands higher than the rim. The elevated portion of the floor of Caloris appears to be part of a quasi-linear rise that extends for approximately half the planetary circumference at mid-latitudes. Collectively, these features imply that long-wavelength changes to Mercury's topography occurred after the earliest phases of the planet's geological history.     

Elimination of two reef-building hydrocorals following the 1982-83 el nino warming event

One probable extinction and one range reduction of eastern Pacific reef-building hydrocoral (Millepora) species mark the first documented cases of species eliminations resulting from the worldwide 1980s coral reef bleaching events. Two of 12 Panamanian coral species were eliminated suddenly from their former ranges by prolonged high sea temperatures during the 1982-83 El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation event. Three conditions contributed to their demise: high sensitivity to sea warming, populations confined to a small geographic area, and bathymetric restriction to the euphotic zone (相似文献   

Aquatic productivity and the evolution of diadromous fish migration

Diadromous migration, in which some fish species migrate from freshwater and feed in the ocean (anadromous species) and others migrate from the ocean and feed in freshwater (catadromous), has long been perplexing. However, when the distribution of diadromous species is examined with respect to global patterns in aquatic productivity, this apparent paradox is resolved. The contrasting directions of migration can largely be explained by the relative availability of food resources in ocean and freshwater habitats. Oceans are more productive than freshwaters in temperate latitudes, and anadromous species predominate. In contrast, catadromous species generally occur in tropical latitudes where freshwater productivity exceeds that of the ocean.     

Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations

Uphill shifts of species' distributions in response to historical warming are well documented, which leads to widespread expectations of continued uphill shifts under future warming. Conversely, downhill shifts are often considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. By comparing the altitudinal distributions of 64 plant species between the 1930s and the present day within California, we show that climate changes have resulted in a significant downward shift in species' optimum elevations. This downhill shift is counter to what would be expected given 20th-century warming but is readily explained by species' niche tracking of regional changes in climatic water balance rather than temperature. Similar downhill shifts can be expected to occur where future climate change scenarios project increases in water availability that outpace evaporative demand.     

Cooling of Tropical Brazil (5{degrees}C) During the Last Glacial Maximum

A 30,000-year paleotemperature record derived from noble gases dissolved in carbon-14-dated ground water indicates that the climate in lowland Brazil (Piaui Province, 7 degrees S, 41.5 degrees W; altitude, 400 meters) was 5.4 degrees +/- 0.6 degrees C cooler during the last glacial maximum than today. This result suggests a rather uniform cooling of the Americas between 40 degrees S and 40 degrees N. A 5.4 degrees C cooling of tropical South America is consistent with pollen records, snow line reconstructions, and strontium/calcium ratios and delta(18)O coral records but is inconsistent with the sea-surface temperature reconstruction of CLIMAP (Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction). On the basis of these results, it appears that the tropical Americas are characterized by a temperature sensitivity comparable to that found in higher latitudes.