Adopting robust decision-making to forest management under climate change

Key message

Multi-objective robust decision making is a promising decision-making method in forest management under climate change as it adequately considers deep uncertainties and handles the long-term, inflexible, and multi-objective character of decisions. This paper provides guidance for application and recommendation on the design.

Context

Recent studies have promoted the application of robust decision-making approaches to adequately consider deep uncertainties in natural resource management. Yet, applications have until now hardly addressed the forest management context.

Aims

This paper seeks to (i) assemble different definitions of uncertainty and draw recommendation to deal with the different levels in decision making, (ii) outline those applications that adequately deal with deep uncertainty, and (iii) systematically review the applications to natural resources management in order to (iv) propose adoption in forest management.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review of robust decision-making approaches and their applications in natural resource management. Different levels of uncertainty were categorized depending on available knowledge in order to provide recommendations on dealing with deep uncertainty. Robust decision-making approaches and their applications to natural resources management were evaluated based on different analysis steps. A simplified application to a hypothetical tree species selection problem illustrates that distinct robustness formulations may lead to different conclusions. Finally, robust decision-making applications to forest management under climate change uncertainty were evaluated and recommendations drawn.

Results

Deep uncertainty is not adequately considered in the forest management literature. Yet, the comparison of robust decision-making approaches and their applications to natural resource management provide guidance on applying robust decision making in forest management regarding decision contexts, decision variables, robustness metrics, and how uncertainty is depicted.

Conclusion

As forest management is characterized by long decision horizons, inflexible systems, and multiple objectives, and is subject to deeply uncertain climate change, the application of a robust decision-making framework using a global, so-called satisficing robustness metric is recommended. Further recommendations are distinguished depending on the decision context.

     

A web-based ToolBox approach to support adaptive forest management under climate change

The design and implementation of the adaptive forest management (AFM) ToolBox is presented. Design principles derived from previous experiences in decision support system (DSS) development include support for (1) modularity, (2) accessibility via the Internet, (3) inclusion of different types of knowledge and information, (4) the use of different data sources, and (5) specific problem types. As major components of the AFM ToolBox DataBase, Vulnerability Assessment Tools (single user version, group mode) and an optimization tool to generate optimized management plans at the level of management units or landscapes are highlighted. A key feature is the distinction of two archetypical user profiles (manager, analyst). The AFM ToolBox is evaluated against eight criteria for the assessment of DSS. It is concluded that the ToolBox approach setting focus on modularity while avoiding to over-emphasis technical integration provides the right frame to secure the flexibility regarding tools and decision-making processes which is mandatory if a DSS should be taken up by practice.     

Knowledge update in adaptive management of forest resources under climate change: a Bayesian simulation approach

Context

We develop a modelling concept that updates knowledge and beliefs about future climate changes, to model a decision-maker’s choice of forest management alternatives, the outcomes of which depend on the climate condition.

Aims

Applying Bayes’ updating, we show that while the true climate trajectory is initially unknown, it will eventually be revealed as novel information become available. How fast the decision-maker will form firm beliefs about future climate depends on the divergence among climate trajectories, the long-term speed of change, and the short-term climate variability.

Methods

We simplify climate change outcomes to three possible trajectories of low, medium and high changes. We solve a hypothetical decision-making problem of tree species choice aiming at maximising the land expectation value (LEV) and based on the updated beliefs at each time step.

Results

The economic value of an adaptive approach would be positive and higher than a non-adaptive approach if a large change in climate state occurs and may influence forest decisions.

Conclusion

Updating knowledge to handle climate change uncertainty is a valuable addition to the study of adaptive forest management in general and the analysis of forest decision-making, in particular for irreversible or costly decisions of long-term impact.     

Evaluating multifunctionality and adaptive capacity of mountain forest management alternatives under climate change in the Eastern Alps

European Journal of Forest Research - Future provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) from mountain forests is uncertain due to potential impacts of climate change. For a case study catchment in the...     

Adapting sustainable forest management to climate policy uncertainty: A conceptual framework

Sustainable forest management delivers ecological benefits critical to mitigating climate change impacts and can produce carbon offset credits tradable at the market price, generating additional income to forest landowners. However, due to high uncertainty in the climate policy of the United States, the economic potential of sustainably managing forests for offset credits is uncertain, discouraging landowners from participating in such practices. Also uncertain are the ecological consequences, especially in terms of forest carbon stocks. Here a conceptual framework was proposed which, with a regime-switching process, modeled the price of carbon credits as a proxy of the climate policy. Uncertainty in policy was translated into a limited number of scenarios regarding the timing and magnitude of policy regime switches. This model was then incorporated into a Markov decision process model of forest management, which accounted for multiple forms of risk and uncertainty affecting forest functioning and management. Using linear programming, this framework quantified the economic and ecological potentials of forest carbon management in various policy scenarios and determined optimal harvesting rules adaptive to policy shifts. A simple numerical example was provided to demonstrate the application of this framework.     

Monitoring forest structure to guide adaptive management of forest restoration: a review of remote sensing approaches

New Forests - With the demand for, and scale of, ecological restoration increasing globally, effectiveness monitoring remains a significant challenge. For forest restoration, structural complexity...     

Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

Background: Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we(1) characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios,(2) analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and(3) quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress.Methods: In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs(minimum, median, maximum) based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development.Results: The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker's risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive.Conclusions: Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario,but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate counter-measures such as species conversion, species mixture or reduction of target diameter can be taken. This simulation study of three silvicultural scenarios and three climate runs spans a decision space of potential forest development to be used for decision making. Which adaptation measures to counteract climate induced risks and uncertainty are to be taken is,however, a matter of individual risk attitude.     

Mapping forest dynamics under climate change: A matrix model

Global climate change may be affecting forests around the world. However, the impact of climate change on forest population dynamics, especially at the landscape or regional level, has hardly been addressed before. A new methodology was proposed to enable matrix transition models to account for climate impact on forest population dynamics. The first climate-sensitive matrix (CSMatrix) model was developed for the Alaska boreal forest based on observations from over 15 years of forest inventory. The spatially explicit model was used to map climate-induced forest population dynamics across the region. The model predicted that the basal area increment in the region under natural succession would be hindered by global warming, more so for dry upland areas than for moist wetlands. It was suggested that temperature-induced drought stress could more than offset a predicted increase of future precipitation in the region to lower overall forest productivity. At the same time, stand diversity would increase across the region through transient species redistribution. Accounting for climate conditions made the CSMatrix model more accurate than conventional matrix models.     

Pertinence of reactive,active, and robust adaptation strategies in forest management under climate change

Key message

Pertinence of alternative adaptation strategies to business as usual, namely reactive, active, and robust adaptation strategies, can be evaluated by incorporating the expected costs and benefits of adaptation, climate change uncertainty, and the risk attitudes of decision-makers.

Context

Forest management is used to coping with risky and uncertain projections and estimates. However, climate change adds a major challenge and necessitates adaptation in many ways.

Aims

This paper highlights the dependency of the decisions on adaptation strategies to four aspects of forest management: (i) the costs of mitigating undesirable climate change impacts on forests, (ii) the value of ecosystem goods and services to be sustained, (iii) uncertainties about future climate trajectories, and (iv) the attitude of decision-makers towards risk (risk aversion level).

Methods

We develop a framework to evaluate the pertinence of reactive, active, and robust adaptation strategies in forest management in response to climate change.

Results

Business as usual may still be retained if the value of the forest and cost of climate impacts are low. Otherwise, it is crucial to react and facilitate the resilience of affected forest resources or actively adapt in advance and improve forest resistance. Adaptation should be robust under any future climate conditions, if the value of the ecosystem, the impacts from climatic changes, and the uncertainty about climate scenarios are very high.

Conclusion

The decision framework for adaptation should take into account multiple aspects of forest management under climate change towards an active and robust strategy.

     

Integrated methodology to assess windthrow impacts on forest stands under climate change

Storms have a high potential to cause severe ecological and economic losses in forests. We performed a logistic regression analysis to create a storm damage sensitivity index for North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, based on damage data of the storm event “Kyrill”. Future storm conditions were derived from two regional climate models. We combined these measures to an impact metric, which is embedded in a broader vulnerability framework and quantifies the impacts of winter storms under climate change until 2060. Sensitivity of forest stands to windthrow was mainly driven by a high proportion of coniferous trees, a complex orography and poor quality soils. Both climate models simulated an increase in the frequency of severe storms, whereby differences between regions and models were substantial. Potential impacts will increase although they will vary among regions with the highest impacts in the mountainous regions. Our results emphasise the need for combining storm damage sensitivity with climate change signals in order to develop forest protection measures.     

Adaptive economic and ecological forest management under risk

Background: Forest managers must deal with inherently stochastic ecological and economic processes. The future growth of trees is uncertain, and so is their value. The randomness of low-impact, high frequency or rare catastrophic shocks in forest growth has significant implications in shaping the mix of tree species and the forest landscape. In addition, the fluctuations of wood prices influence greatly forest revenues.Methods: Markov decision process models(MDPs) offer a rigorous and practical way of developing optimum management strategies, given these multiple sources of risk.Results: Examples illustrate how such management guidelines are obtained with MDPs for combined ecological and economic objectives, including diversity of tree species and size, landscape diversity, old growth preservation, and carbon sequestration.Conclusions: The findings illustrate the power of the MDP approach to deal with risk in forest resource management.They recognize that the future is best viewed in terms of probabilities. Given these probabilities, MDPs tie optimum adaptive actions strictly to the state of the forest and timber prices at decision time. The methods are theoretically rigorous, numerically efficient, and practical for field implementation.     

Study of landscape change under forest harvesting and climate warming-induced fire disturbance

We examined tree species responses under forest harvesting and an increased fire disturbance scenario due to climate warming in northern Wisconsin where northern hardwood and boreal forests are currently predominant. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was simulated with a gap model, which integrates soil, climate and species data, stratified by ecoregions. Such responses were quantified as species establishment coefficients. These coefficients were used to parameterize a spatially explicit landscape model, LANDIS. Species response to climate warming at the landscape scale was simulated with LANDIS, which integrates ecosystem dynamics with spatial processes including seed dispersal, fire disturbance, and forest harvesting. Under a 5 °C annual temperature increase predicted by global climate models (GCM), our simulation results suggest that significant change in species composition and abundance could occur in the two ecoregions in the study area. In the glacial lake plain (lakeshore) ecoregion under warming conditions, boreal and northern hardwood species such as red oak, sugar maple, white pine, balsam fir, paper birch, yellow birch, and aspen decline gradually during and after climate warming. Southern species such as white ash, hickory, bur oak, black oak, and white oak, which are present in minor amounts before the warming, increase in abundance on the landscape. The transition of the northern hardwood and boreal forest to one dominated by southern species occurs around year 200. In the sand barrens ecoregion under warming conditions, red pine initially benefits from the decline of other northern hardwood species, and its abundance quickly increases. However, red pine and jack pine as well as new southern species are unable to reproduce, and the ecoregion could transform into a region with only grass and shrub species around 250 years under warming climate. Increased fire frequency can accelerate the decline of shade-tolerant species such as balsam fir and sugar maple and accelerate the northward migration of southern species. Forest harvesting accelerated the decline of northern hardwood and boreal tree species. This is especially obvious on the barrens ecoregion, where the intensive cutting regime contributed to the decline of red pine and jack pine already under stressed environments. Forest managers may instead consider a conservative cutting plan or protective management scenarios with limited forest harvesting. This could prolong the transformation of the barrens into prairie from one-half to one tree life cycle.     

Multiple-use forest management in consideration of climate change and the interests of stakeholder groups

In this study, the overall utility of forest management alternatives at the forest management unit level is evaluated with regard to multi-purpose and multi-user settings by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. The MCA is based on an additive utility model. The relative importance of partial objectives of forest management (carbon sequestration, ground water recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) is defined in cooperation with stakeholders. The forest growth model 4C (Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) is used to simulate the impact of six forest management strategies and climate on forest functions. Two climate change scenarios represent uncertainties with regard to future climatic conditions. The study is based on actual forest conditions in the Kleinsee management unit in east Germany, which is dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and oak (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea Liebl.) stands. First, there is an analysis of the impact of climate and forest management on forest functions. Climate change increases carbon sequestration and income from timber production due to increased stand productivity. Secondly, the overall utility of the management strategies is compared under the priority settings of different stakeholder groups. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate due to high biodiversity and carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions.     

Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

We evaluated the economic effects of a predicted shift from Norway spruce (Picea abies (Karst) to European beech (Fagus sylvatica (L) for a forest area of 1.3 million ha in southwest Germany. The shift was modelled with a generalised linear model (GLM) by using presence/absence data from the National Forest Inventory in Baden-Württemberg, a digital elevation model, and regionalised climate parameters from the period 1970 to 2000. Two scenarios from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (B1, A2) for three different time scales (2030, 2065, and 2100) were investigated. The GLM predicted a decrease of the suitable area for growing Norway spruce between 21% (B1, 2030) and 93% (A2, 2100) in comparison to 2000. This corresponds to a reduction in the potential area of Norway spruce from between 190,000 and 860,000 ha. The financial effect of this reduction in area was then evaluated by using a classical Faustmann approach, namely the land expectation value (LEV) as an economic parameter for forests of Norway spruce versus European beech. Underlying cash flows were derived from a distance dependent, single-tree growth simulator (SILVA) based on data for prices and costs of the year 2004. With an interest rate of r = 2%, the predicted loss in the potential area of Norway spruce is related to a decrease of the LEV between 690 million and 3.1 billion Euro. We discuss the sensitivity of these results to changing interest rates, risk levels, and rotation lengths. Results suggest that managing forestland for profitability will be increasingly difficult under both climate scenarios.     

Forest responses to climate change in the northwestern United States: Ecophysiological foundations for adaptive management

Climate change resulting from increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO₂]) is expected to result in warmer temperatures and changed precipitation regimes during this century. In the northwestern U.S., these changes will likely decrease snowpack, cause earlier snowmelt, increase summer evapotranspiration, and increase the frequency and severity of droughts. Elevated [CO₂] and warmer temperatures may have positive effects on growth and productivity where there is adequate moisture or growth is currently limited by cold. However, the effects of climate change are generally expected to reduce growth and survival, predispose forests to disturbance by wildfire, insects, and disease; and ultimately change forest structure and composition at the landscape scale. Substantial warming will likely decrease winter chilling resulting in delayed bud burst, and adversely affect flowering and seed germination for some species. The extent of these effects will depend on the magnitude of climate change, the abilities of individual trees to acclimate, and for tree populations to adapt in situ, or to migrate to suitable habitats. These coping mechanisms may be insufficient to maintain optimal fitness of tree populations to rapidly changing climate. Physiological responses to climatic stresses are relatively well-understood at the organ or whole-plant scale but not at the stand or landscape scale. In particular, the interactive effects of multiple stressors is not well known. Genetic and silvicultural approaches to increase adaptive capacities and to decrease climate-related vulnerabilities of forests can be based on ecophysiological knowledge. Effective approaches to climate adaptation will likely include assisted migration of species and populations, and density management. Use of these approaches to increase forest resistance and resilience at the landscape scale requires a better understanding of species adaptations, within-species genetic variation, and the mitigating effects of silvicultural treatments.