Landscape changes over time: comparison of land uses, boundaries and mosaics

Changes in the landscape from 1946 to 1999 were studied according to changes in the land uses, boundaries and mosaics therein. The abundances of the different categories of these three landscape elements were calculated using land use maps. Their frequency profiles were compared based on their richness, evenness and diversity. Richness of land uses does not noticeably change. However, these slight changes are spatially perceptible in the landscape when changes in the boundaries and mosaics are considered. For the three landscape elements the least diverse landscapes are obtained in the initial year. The highest landscape diversity is reached, however, in the intermediate years when boundaries or mosaics are considered, whereas the highest value based on land uses occurs in the final period studied. Considering that land uses, boundaries and mosaics provide different information on landscape characteristics and qualities, conditional entropy analyses were conducted in order to ascertain which of the types of landscape elements is most related to landscape change. Boundaries are the element most related to landscape change. Mosaics, however, are the element that best describe each of the years because they integrate the information on land uses and boundaries. From an ecological and management point of view, the three elements should be considered as opposed to just land uses. They compliment each other in the information provided by each one in relation to changes occurring and the effects thereof on landscape structure and functioning.     

Spatial pattern of coniferous and deciduous forest patches in an Eastern North America agricultural landscape: the influence of land use and physical attributes

In agricultural landscapes, most studies have investigated the influence of the spatial pattern of forest patches on other ecological phenomena and processes, such as animal movement and biodiversity. However, few have focused on explaining the spatial pattern of the forest patches themselves. Understanding how these patterns relate to the processes that generate them is fundamental in developing a sound theory of landscape ecology, and in devising rational management strategies. In this paper, the pattern of the overall forest patches, as well as the pattern of deciduous and coniferous patches in an agricultural landscape of Southern Quebec, Canada, were analyzed and related to landscape physical attributes and land use, using remote sensing, geographic information systems and statistical methods. Results show that the role of landscape physical attributes on forest patch pattern has been modified by land use. In the study area, coniferous or deciduous patches are not associated with a specific surface deposit. In addition, physical attributes explain only a small proportion of the abundance of conifers on past abandoned land compared with land-use factors. Physical attributes only indirectly influence the forest pattern because they strongly influence the land-use practices. Our results reveal a conifer recovery process with the abandonment of agricultural land. On past abandoned land, conifers expand with increasing stand age, mostly by invasion from neighboring coniferous patches. Spatially, coniferous patches are usually located on the margins of the overall forest patches, and they are connected to non-forest land-use types such as crop and pasture, the latter being the most important. By showing the importance of some coniferous forest types that did not exist in the precolonial forest, a new perspective emerges when landscape, especially, land-use dynamics are taken into account.     

Temporal and spatial changes in an area of the New Jersey Pine Barrens landscape

In order to document the extent of landscape fragmentation for a section of the New Jersey Pine Barrens region, we have used satellite image and spatial analysis to monitor landscape change between 1972 and 1988. Land-cover patterns were quantified by mean, number, and size of patches; and amount of edges between land cover types. During the intervening sixteen year period, fractal dimension, diversity, and contagion generally decreased while dominance, disturbance and edges increased, indicating a trend to a more dissected and disturbed landscape. There was an increase in the number of forest patches and a significant decrease in the average size of forest patches. In contrast, the mean patch size for the non-forest category has increased as a result of a coalescence of patches. The landscape fragmentation is shown by a downward shift in the distribution of forest patches by size class. These changes in landscape pattern have implications for many ecological processes and resources. Management practices need to consider landscape fragmentation in the Pinelands National Reserve in order to preserve the essential character of the Pine Barrens landscape.     

Relating tradable credits for biodiversity to sustainability criteria in a dynamic landscape

Tradable biodiversity credit systems provide flexible means to resolve conflicts between development and conservation land-use options for habitats occupied by threatened or endangered species. We describe an approach to incorporate the influence of habitat fragmentation into the conservation value of tradable credits. Habitat fragmentation decreases gene flow, increases rates of genetic drift and inbreeding, and increases probabilities of patch extinction. Importantly, tradable credit systems will change the level of fragmentation over time for small and/or declining populations. We apply landscape equivalency analysis (LEA), a generalizable, landscape-scale accounting system that assigns conservation value to habitat patches based on patch contributions to abundance and genetic variance at landscape scales. By evaluating habitat trades using two models that vary the relationship between dispersal behaviors and landscape patterns, we show that LEA provides a novel method for limiting access to habitat at the landscape-scale, recognizing that the appropriate amount of migration needed to supplement patch recruitment and to offset drift and inbreeding will vary as landscape pattern changes over time. We also found that decisions based on probabilities of persistence alone would ignore changes in migration, genetic drift, and patch extinction that result from habitat trades. The general principle of LEA is that habitat patches traded should make at least equivalent contributions to rates of recruitment and migration estimated at a landscape scale. Traditional approaches for assessing the “take” and “jeopardy” standards under the Endangered Species Act based on changes in abundance and probability of persistence may be inadequate to prevent trades that increase fragmentation.     

The influence of forest harvesting on landscape spatial patterns and old-growth-forest fragmentation in southeast British Columbia

Habitat fragmentation is considered one of the major conservation issues of recent decades. We tested predictions of landscape patterns in a 352,253-ha managed forest area in southeast British Columbia. We did this by focussing on forest fragmentation concerns among old-growth, harvest, and wildfire patches in 44 delineated landscapes using patch indices as measures of landscape pattern. We found no significant association between amount of harvesting and 15 old-growth patch indices. Comparisons among patch types revealed that amounts and spatial patterns of harvest patches differed little from amounts and spatial patterns of old-growth patches in control landscapes. Variability indices revealed similar variability between harvest patches and old-growth patches, and more variability between harvest patches and wildfire patches. Little of the evidence gathered in this study supported predictions of fragmentation of old-growth spatial patterns, or predicted differences between harvest spatial patterns and more naturally occurring spatial patterns. We suggest these results could be due to the relatively small amounts of harvesting and old-growth forest in these landscapes, and therefore habitat amount may be a more important factor than spatial configuration of patches in these landscapes.     

Dwindling resources and fragmentation of landscapes around parks: wetlands and forest patches around Kibale National Park,Uganda

Landscapes surrounding parks in most of the developing world, while still containing considerable biodiversity, also have rapidly growing human populations and associated agricultural development. Since the establishment of Kibale National Park first as a Crown Forest Reserve in 1932 and later as a park in 1993 in western Uganda, most access and resource extraction has been prohibited. The park has become nearly a complete island of forested land cover surrounded by intensive small-scale agriculture and some large-scale tea plantations, along with a network of wetland and forest patches. As the population grows outside the park and land becomes more scarce, remaining forests and wetlands are being used more intensively for material resources (e.g., fuelwood, building poles) and converted to other land uses (e.g., pasture, agriculture). This study uses both discrete and continuous data analyses of satellite imagery to examine these diminishing resource bases at the landscape level placing the results within the social context of conservation and parks. Findings reveal that the park boundaries have remained fairly intact whereas, the landscape surrounding the park has become increasingly fragmented. From a landscape perspective, while the park has indeed maintained its forest cover, it has become increasingly islandized with wetland and forest patches in the surrounding landscape becoming smaller in number and size. Those that have survived are now more isolated and even lower productivity than in 1984, which may be a precursor to their eventual loss in this landscape.     

Spatio-temporal variation in the demographic attributes of a generalist mesopredator

Human land-use practices have dramatically altered the composition and configuration of native habitats throughout many ecosystems. Within heterogeneous landscapes generalist predators often thrive, causing cascading effects on local biological communities, yet there are few data to suggest how attributes of fragmentation influence local population dynamics of these species. We monitored 25 raccoon (Procyon lotor) populations from 2004 to 2009 in a fragmented agricultural landscape to evaluate the influence of local and landscape habitat attributes on spatial and temporal variation in demography. Our results indicate that agricultural ecosystems support increased densities of raccoons relative to many other rural landscapes, but that spatial and temporal variation in demography exists that is driven by non-agricultural habitat attributes rather than the availability of crops. At the landscape scale, both density and population stability were positively associated with the size and contiguity of forest patches, while at the local scale density was positively correlated with plant diversity and the density of tree cavities. In addition, populations occupying forest patches with greater levels of plant diversity and stable water resources exhibited less temporal variability than populations with limited plant species complexity or water availability. The proportion of populations comprised of females was most strongly influenced by the availability of tree cavities and soft mast. Despite the abundance of mesopredators in heterogeneous landscapes, our results indicate that all patches do not contribute equally to the regional abundance and persistence of these species. Thus, a clear understanding of how landscape attributes contribute to variation in demography is critical to the optimization of management strategies.     

Landscape cover type and pattern dynamics in fragmented southern Great Plains grasslands,USA

We documented land cover and landscape pattern changes in an area of northwestern Oklahoma, USA using aerial photography from 1965, 1981, and 1995. This region of the southern Great Plains is fragmented by agricultural activity, and in recent years many remnant native grasslands have experienced extensive invasion by woody juniper (Juniperus virginiana L.). Concurrently, many cropland areas are being planted into perennial forage grasses and converted to intensively managed introduced grasslands as part of the U.S. Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Our objectives were to document land cover and landscape pattern changes in the region relative to the expansion of juniper and CRP activity. We then examined how local landscape dominance by either anthropogenic or woody vegetation patches affected landscape pattern indices. Land cover changes from 1965 to 1995 included substantial increases in juniper woodlands and mixed woodlands that resulted from juniper encroachment into deciduous woodlands. Introduced grasslands also increased in many areas as a result of CRP implementation. Changes in landscape pattern generally reflected the influx of juniper into many areas. Landscapes dominated by woody vegetation had significantly more patches, smaller patches and patch core areas, more total edge, and higher patch diversity than landscapes dominated by anthropogenic cover types. Results indicate that expanding juniper is exacerbating the fragmentation process initiated by previous human activity, and represents a serious threat to the continued integrity and conservation of remaining southern Great Plains grasslands.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Thresholds in landscape structure for three common deforestation patterns in the Brazilian Amazon

Although abrupt changes (i.e. thresholds) have been precisely defined in simulated landscapes, such changes in the structure of real landscapes are not well understood. We tested for threshold occurrence in three common deforestation patterns in the Brazilian Amazon: small properties regularly distributed along roads (fishbone), irregularly distributed small properties (independent settlements), and large properties. We analyzed differences between real deforestation patterns, and tested the capacity of simulated landscape with different aggregation degrees to predict threshold occurrence. Three 8×8 km sites (replicates) with more than 90% of forest in 1984 and less than 30% in 1998 were selected/simulated for each deforestation pattern. Thresholds were observed for fishbone and large property patterns, especially when considering the connectivity index, although threshold incidences were more frequently observed in simulated landscapes. The capacity of simulated landscapes to predict the exact threshold point in real landscapes was limited, even when considering highly aggregate simulations. However, the general trend in landscape structural changes was similar in real and simulated landscapes. Thresholds occurred at the beginning of the deforestation for mean patch size and at an intermediate stage, corresponding to the percolation threshold, for connectivity, isolation and fragmentation. Threshold behavior for connectivity index might suggest that the survival of strictly forest species will sharply decrease when the proportion of forest reach values <0.60, indicating that conservation efforts should be done to maintain forest cover above this limit. Significant differences observed among the real deforestation patterns, especially in patch isolation and number of fragments, can have significant consequences for conservation. The independent settlement pattern is, without a doubt, the least favorable of them, resulting in a higher level of fragmentation, whereas the large property and fishbone patterns may be less detrimental if connectivity among the remnant forest patches is preserved.     

Landscape fragmentation,land-use legacy and propagule pressure promote plant invasion on coastal dunes: a patch-based approach

Coastal dunes and sand areas are reported to be among the habitats most invaded by alien species in Europe. Landscape pattern could be a significant driver in invasion processes in parallel with land-use legacy. Fragmentation of natural habitats combined with the availability of propagules from the surrounding matrix may enhance the invisibility of ecological communities. Based on multitemporal land cover maps (1954–2008) and a floristic database, we analyzed how habitat fragmentation, propagule pressure and land-use legacy have affected alien plants’ presence and richness on natural dune patches along the Lazio Coast (Central Italy). Floristic data were derived from an existing geo-database of random vegetation plots (64 m²). A set of landscape patch-based metrics, considered to be adequate proxies of the main processes affecting alien invasion and richness, was calculated. First, we fit a generalized linear model (GLM) with binomial errors to assess which landscape metrics are influencing patch invasion. Second, we extracted invaded patches and, with GLMs, we investigated how landscape metrics affect average alien species richness. Alien invasion and alien richness seem to be affected by different processes: although alien invasion of each patch is strongly associated with its land-use legacy, the richness of aliens is more affected by landscape fragmentation and by the propagule pressure to which patch is exposed. By integrating spatial and temporal landscape metrics with floristic data, we were able to disentangle the relations of landscape fragmentation, propagule pressure and land-use legacy with the presence and richness of alien plants. The methodological approach here adopted could be easily extended to other alien species and ecosystems, offering scientifically sound support to prevent the high economic costs derived from both the control and the eradication of aliens.     

Matrix Matters: Effects of Surrounding Land Uses on Forest Birds Near Ottawa,Canada

Matrix quality affects probability of persistence in habitat patches in landscape simulation models while empirical studies show that both urban and agricultural land uses affect forest birds. However, due to the fact that forest bird abundance and species richness can be strongly influenced by local habitat factors, it is difficult to analyze matrix effects without confounding effects from such factors. Given this, our objectives were to (1) relate human-dominated land uses to forest bird abundance and species richness without confounding effects from other factors; (2) determine the scale at which forest birds respond to the matrix; and (3) identify whether certain bird migratory strategies or habitat associations vary in richness or abundance as a function of urban and agriculture land uses. Birds were surveyed at a single point count site 100 m from the edge of 23 deciduous forest patches near Ottawa, Ontario. Land uses surrounding each patch were measured within increasingly large circles from 200 to 5000 m radius around the bird survey site. Regression results suggest that effects of urban and agricultural land uses on forest birds (1) are not uniformly positive or negative, (2) can occur at different spatial scales, and (3) differentially affect certain groups of species. In general, agriculture appeared to affect species at a broad spatial scale (within 5 km), while urban land use had an impact at both a narrower spatial scale (within 1.8 km) and at the broad scale. Neotropical and short distance migrant birds seemed to be the most sensitive to land use intensification within the matrix. Limiting urban land use within approximately 200–1800 m of forest patches would be beneficial for Neotropical migrant birds, which are species of growing conservation concern in temperate North America.     

Scaling properties in landscape patterns: New Zealand experience

In this paper we present a case study of spatial structure in landscape patterns for the North and South Islands of New Zealand. The aim was to characterise quantitatively landscape heterogeneity and investigate its possible scaling properties. The study examines spatial heterogeneity, in particular patchiness, at a range of spatial scales, to help build understanding on the effects of landscape heterogeneity on water movement in particular, and landscape ecology in general.We used spatial information on various landscape properties (soils, hydrogeology, vegetation, topography) generated from the New Zealand Land Resource Inventory. To analyse this data set we applied various methods of fractal analyses following the hypothesis that patchiness in selected landscape properties demonstrates fractal scaling behaviour at two structural levels: (1) individual patches; and (2) mosaics (sets) of patches.Individual patches revealed scaling behaviour for both patch shape and boundary. We found self-affinity in patch shape with Hurst exponent H from 0.75 to 0.95. We also showed that patch boundaries in most cases were self-similar and in a few cases of large patches were self-affine. The degree of self-affinity was lower for finer patches. Similarly, when patch scale decreases the orientation of patches tends to be uniformly distributed, though patch orientation on average is clearly correlated with broad scale geological structures. These results reflect a tendency to isotropic behaviour of individual patches from broad to finer scales. Mosaics of patches also revealed fractal scaling in the total patch boundaries, patch centers of mass, and in patch area distribution. All these reflect a special organisation in patchiness represented in fractal patch clustering. General relationships which interconnect fractal scaling exponents were derived and tested. These relationships show how scaling properties of individual patches affect those for mosaics of patches and vice-versa. To explain similarity in scaling behaviour in patchiness of different types we suggest that the Self-Organised Criticality concept should be used. Also, potential applications of our results in landscape ecology are discussed, especially in relation to improved neutral landscape models.     

Biodiversity and ecological value of conservation lands in agricultural landscapes of southern Ontario,Canada

In eastern North America, large forest patches have been the primary target of biodiversity conservation. This conservation strategy ignores land units that combine to form the complex emergent rural landscapes typical of this region. In addition, many studies have focussed on one wildlife group at a single spatial scale. In this paper, studies of avian and anuran populations at regional and landscape scales have been integrated to assess the ecological value of agricultural mosaics in southern Ontario on the basis of the maintenance of faunal biodiversity. Field surveys of avian and anuran populations were conducted between 2001 and 2004 at the watershed and sub-watershed levels. The ecological values of land units were based on a combination of several components including species richness, species of conservation concern (rarity), abundance, and landscape parameters (patch size and connectivity). It was determined that habitats such as thicket swamps, coniferous plantations and cultural savannas can play an important role in the overall biodiversity and ecological value of the agricultural landscape. Thicket swamps at the edge of agricultural fields or roads provided excellent breeding habitat for anurans. Coniferous plantations and cultural savannas attracted many birds of conservation concern. In many cases, the land units that provided high ecological value for birds did not score well for frogs. Higher scores for avian and anuran populations were recorded along the Niagara Escarpment and other protected areas as expected. However, some private land areas scored high, some spatially connected to the protected areas and therefore providing an opportunity for private land owners to enter into a management arrangement with the local agencies.     

Forest fragmentation and regrowth in an institutional mosaic of community, government and private ownership in Nepal

This study analyzes forest change in an area of Nepal that signifies a delicate balance between sustaining the needs and livelihood of a sizable human population dependent on forest products, and an effort to protect important wildlife and other natural resources. The study area, a portion of the Chitwan valley district of Nepal, represents what may be becoming a common institutional mosaic in many countries of the world who have a population reliant on forest products for their livelihood: (1) a national park; (2) a designated park buffer involving participatory forest management programs; (3) scattered patches of designated community forest; and (4) large areas of adjacent landscape made up of mostly private landholdings under agricultural practices. Utilizing Landsat images from 1989 and 2000, we analyze land cover change in each of these management zones using landscape ecology metrics and quantifying proportional distributions of land cover categories. Our results show significant differences in terms of land cover dynamics and landscape spatial pattern between these land ownership classes. These findings indicate that community-based institutions (participatory management programs in the park buffer and the designated community forests) are capable of halting or even reversing trends in deforestation and forest fragmentation.     

Genetic consequences of forest fragmentation by agricultural land in an arboreal marsupial

Context

Increasing demands on land for agriculture have resulted in large-scale clearance and fragmentation of forests globally. In fragmented landscapes, species that tolerate or exploit the matrix will persist, while those that do not, frequently decline. Knowledge of matrix use is therefore critical to predicting extinction proneness of species in modified landscapes and defining the value of land for conservation management.

Objectives

In a fragmented landscape consisting of seven remnant patches surrounded by agricultural land and a large Eucalyptus forest, we explored (i) population connectivity of common ringtail possums, Pseudocheirus peregrinus, to determine the permeability of the agricultural matrix, and (ii) genetic consequences of forest fragmentation.

Methods

238 common ringtail possums were screened at 14 microsatellite markers and analysed using a range of genetic techniques.

Results

We observed significant genetic differentiation among all patches and limited dispersal through the agricultural matrix, even between neighbouring patches. Consequences of this were a six- to ten-fold increase in genetic dissimilarity over an equivalent geographic distance across patches compared with sites in the continuous forest and a significant reduction in genetic diversity, particularly in patches that were geographically more isolated from their neighbours.

Conclusions

We conclude that the agricultural matrix has a number of characteristics that make it unsuitable for facilitating movement of possums through this landscape, and recommend several management strategies to mitigate the impacts of fragmentation on this and other arboreal species for their conservation.

     

Forest conservation and land development in Puerto Rico

In the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico, rapid land-use changes over the past century have included recent land-cover conversion to urban/built-up lands. Observations of this land development adjacent to reserves or replacing dense forest call into question how the changes relate to forests or reserved lands. Using existing maps, this study first summarizes island-wide land-cover change between 1977-78 and 1991-92. Then, using binomial logit modeling, it seeks evidence that simple forest cover attributes, reserve locations, or existing land cover influence land development locations. Finally, this study quantifies land development, reserve protection and forest cover by ecological zone. Results indicate that 1) pasture is more likely to undergo land development than shrubland plus forest with low canopy density, 2) forest condition and conservation status appear unimportant in that development locations neither distinguish between classes of forest canopy development nor relate to forest patch size or reserve proximity, and 3) most land development occurs in the least-protected ecological zones. Outside the boundaries of strictly protected forest and other reserves, accessibility, proximity to existing urban areas, and perhaps desirable natural settings, serve to increase land development. Over the coming century, opportunities to address ecological zone gaps in the islands forest reserve system could be lost more rapidly in lowland ecological zones, which are relatively unprotected.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatial simulation of landscape changes in Georgia: A comparison of 3 transition models

Spatial simulation models were developed to predict temporal changes in land use patterns in a piedmont county in Georgia (USA). Five land use categories were included: urban, cropland, abandoned cropland, pasture, and forest. Land use data were obtained from historical aerial photography and digitized into a matrix based on a 1 ha grid cell format. Three different types of spatial simulation were compared: (1) random simulations based solely on transition probabilities; (2) spatial simulations in which the four nearest neighbors (adjacent cells only) influence transitions; and (3) spatial simulations in which the eight nearest neighbors (adjacent and diagonal cells) influence transitions. Models and data were compared using the mean number and size of patches, fractal dimension of patches, and amount of edge between land uses. The random model simulated a highly fragmented landscape having numerous, small patches with relatively complex shapes. The two versions of the spatial model simulated cropland well, but simulated patches of forest and abandoned cropland were fewer, larger, and more simple than those in the real landscape. Several possible modifications of model structure are proposed. The modeling approach presented here is a potentially general one for simulating human-influenced landscapes.     

Ownership and soil quality as sources of agricultural land fragmentation in highly fragmented ownership patterns

The relation between landscape structure and its drivers is a central issue in studies of landscape ecology. However, agricultural land fragmentation is dealt with in only a few such studies. We have investigated the effects of ownership and soil quality on agricultural land fragmentation in the highly fragmented ownership patterns that characterize some of the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using patch-scale spatial data generated from GIS, Minimal Adequate Models, based on ANOVA, were performed to test for the effects of ownership and soil quality patterns on arable land and grassland fragmentation across 483 study areas. The results show that there are important differences in the predictors of fragmentation between arable land and grassland. Grassland fragmentation was found to be associated particularly with ownership fragmentation, whereas arable land fragmentation tended to be driven mainly by soil conditions. A higher proportion of public ownership supports the more frequent appearance of larger patches. We found a significantly positive relationship between natural soil fertility and arable land fragmentation, while there was a strongly negative relationship between natural soil fertility and grassland fragmentation. Soil quality diversity was observed to be the most important driver affecting arable land fragmentation, but only a non-significant driver of grassland fragmentation. The study provides arguments for intervention aimed at reducing the huge differences between the levels of land-ownership and the land-use fragmentation.     

Impact of land-use change on biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Chilean temperate forests

Context

Land-use change impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services, which are intrinsically related. There is a serious lack of knowledge concerning on how land-use change affects this relationship at landscape level, where the greatest impacts have been reported. A proper knowledge of that relationship would provide crucial information for planning conservation strategies. The forest landscape of southern Chile, which includes Valdivian Temperate Forest, has been designated as a hotspot for biodiversity conservation. However, this landscape has been transformed by land-use change.

Objective

We evaluated the impact of land-use change on the spatial patterns of the diversity of native forest habitat and the influence of these impacts on the provision of the ecosystem services water supply, erosion control, and organic matter accumulation from 1986 to 2011.

Methods

The evaluation, at the landscape level, was carried out using satellite images, landscape metrics, spatially explicit models and generalized linear models. Results: We found that the area loss of native forest habitat was 12%, the number patches of native forest habitat increased more than 150% and the Shannon diversity index decreased by 0.20. The largest decrease in the provision of services was recorded for erosion control (346%), and the smallest for water supply (11%).

Conclusions

The loss of provision of the ecosystem services can be explained by the interaction between the area loss, increase in the number patches and diversity loss. We recommend that the conservation planning strategies should consider the current landscape configuration, complemented with land-use planning.

     

How good are tropical forest patches for ecosystem services provisioning?

Native forests play an important role regarding ecosystem services related to biodiversity, water, and nutrient cycling, and the intensity of those services should be related to the amount, configuration and quality of the forest. However, in highly dynamic landscapes, such as some tropical regions, ecosystem services are potentially affected not only by the present landscape structure, but also by the historical land use. Here we propose a simple methodological framework to evaluate the contribution of past landscape dynamics and present landscape structure in the provision of ecosystem services. We applied this framework to a traditional agricultural landscape from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, where natural forests cover has increased from 8 to 16 % in the last 60 years (1962–2008), and where old forests are being reduced while young forests are being regenerated. Forests of different ages, in association with current landscape structure, reveal a mosaic of forest patches under different conditions, implying different abilities to deliver ecosystem services. With the replacement of old-growth forests by young-regenerating forests and a high level of forest fragmentation, less than 1/4 of the current forest cover is able to fully satisfy the ecosystem service demands. To avoid such tendency, government policies should not only focus on increasing forest cover, but also in conserving old-growth forest fragments or increasing forest quality. The proposed methodology allows integrating historical land use and current landscape structure to evaluate ecosystem services provision and can be useful to establish programs of payment for ecosystem services.