Multilevel Latent Gaussian Process Model for Mixed Discrete and Continuous Multivariate Response Data

We propose a Bayesian model for mixed ordinal and continuous multivariate data to evaluate a latent spatial Gaussian process. Our proposed model can be used in many contexts where mixed continuous and discrete multivariate responses are observed in an effort to quantify an unobservable continuous measurement. In our example, the latent, or unobservable measurement is wetland condition. While predicted values of the latent wetland condition variable produced by the model at each location do not hold any intrinsic value, the relative magnitudes of the wetland condition values are of interest. In addition, by including point-referenced covariates in the model, we are able to make predictions at new locations for both the latent random variable and the multivariate response. Lastly, the model produces ranks of the multivariate responses in relation to the unobserved latent random field. This is an important result as it allows us to determine which response variables are most closely correlated with the latent variable. Our approach offers an alternative to traditional indices based on best professional judgment that are frequently used in ecology. We apply our model to assess wetland condition in the North Platte and Rio Grande River Basins in Colorado. The model facilitates a comparison of wetland condition at multiple locations and ranks the importance of in-field measurements.     

基于GIS的流域土壤侵蚀量估算指标模型方法——以嘉陵江上游西汉水流域为例

在分析土壤侵蚀形成的各主要影响因子的基础上 ,提出了基于栅格地理信息系统的流域土壤侵蚀量估算的指标模型。结合嘉陵江上游西汉水流域具体情况 ,以降雨、地形、沟谷密度、植被盖度、成土母质等为主要指标 ,对流域土壤侵蚀量进行了估算 ,计算结果与实测数据相符合     

A Nonlinear Mixed-Effects Model for Multivariate Longitudinal Data with Dropout with Application to HIV Disease Dynamics

The main challenge in biomedical and clinical studies which involve collection of longitudinal data is the premature withdrawal of the subjects from the study resulting in incomplete data. Standard statistical analysis approaches usually give biased estimates of the model parameters if the mechanisms that led to dropout are ignored. In this discussion, we consider nonlinear mixed-effects models for multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of subject dropout. We present techniques for estimation of model parameters. These procedures are applied to estimate the parameters in the HIV dynamic system using routine observational data from an HIV clinic.     

Co-clustering Spatial Data Using a Generalized Linear Mixed Model With Application to the Integrated Pest Management

Co-clustering has been broadly applied to many domains such as bioinformatics and text mining. However, model-based spatial co-clustering has not been studied. In this paper, we develop a co-clustering method using a generalized linear mixed model for spatial data. To avoid the high computational demands associated with global optimization, we propose a heuristic optimization algorithm to search for a near optimal co-clustering. For an application pertinent to Integrated Pest Management, we combine the spatial co-clustering technique with a statistical inference method to make assessment of pest densities more accurate. We demonstrate the utility and power of our proposed pest assessment procedure through simulation studies and apply the procedure to studies of the persea mite (Oligonychus perseae), a pest of avocado trees, and the citricola scale (Coccus pseudomagnoliarum), a pest of citrus trees.     

自动引导车辆(AGV)定位停车的控制

建立了后轮驱动、前轮转向自动引导车辆的定位停车运动学模型，基于这一模型提出了经过两步消除定位停车误差的控制策略。根据极小值原理探讨了Ｐｉｎｇ－Ｐｉｎｇ控制算法，车辆以最佳方式消除停车误差应切换控制的状态轨迹，以及消除停车误差车辆应行驶的最短距离。还分析了车辆当前位置到预定停车位置之间的距离对实施该控制策略的影响，提出了超前给出定位停车标志的必要性。     

自动引导车辆(AGV)定位停车的控制

建立了后轮驱动、前轮转向自动引导车辆的定位停车运动学模型，基于这一模型提出了经过两步消除定位停车误差的控制策略。根据极小值原理探讨了Ｐｉｎｇ－Ｐｉｎｇ控制算法，车辆以最佳方式消除停车误差应切换控制的状态轨迹，以及消除停车误差车辆应行驶的最短距离。还分析了车辆当前位置到预定停车位置之间的距离对实施该控制策略的影响，提出了超前给出定位停车标志的必要性。     

拟合谷粒干燥温度的数学模型

文中给出拟合降速干燥过程中谷物粒内温度的数学模型。把谷粒看作均质球体,假定粒表面的热扩散系数为一常数且干燥速度严格遵循指数模型。通过拉氏变换,求解基础导热方程,得出粒内温度分布及平均温度变化的解析式并实验验证模型的可靠性。     

基于InVEST模型的芜湖市固碳能力及影响因子研究

[目的] 研究安徽省芜湖市2011—2021年碳储量时空分布格局,同时探究生态环境因子、地形因子、气象因子和土地利用程度对其固碳能力的影响变化,为芜湖市土地资源管理及绿色农业发展提供参考依据。[方法] 以芜湖市2011,2015,2021年土地利用数据,利用InVEST模型Carbon storage模块定量评估研究碳储量空间分布,探究土地利用程度、地形、气象、土壤侵蚀等因子影响,并根据相关性分析叠加计算碳储量热点区域。[结果] ①近年,芜湖市因土地利用变化碳储量减少了4.14×10⁵ t,呈逐年减少趋势;固碳能力：草地＜耕地＜林地,林地为5 488.97 t/km²且耕地碳储量高达7.39×10⁶ t。②在自然因素中,用地类型、海拔、坡度及土地利用程度是影响碳储量空间分布主要原因,随海拔、坡度升高而逐级缓慢增加,碳储量整体呈“北低南高”分布情况。③在生态环境因素中,碳储量与土壤保持为显著正相关,相辅相成互为协同关系;相反,与土壤侵蚀互为权衡关系。④南部碳储量呈现“高—高集聚”占18.77%,北部为“低—低集聚”仅为2.73%;碳储量热点区域因资源开发利用影响呈逐年减少趋势,优良区域占11.95%,集中于南部山林地带,局部较弱需重点保护管理优化。[结论] 2011—2021年芜湖市固碳总量逐年减少,固碳速率呈现逐年减弱趋势,固碳能力较稳定。芜湖市北部固碳能力相对较弱,可通过土地管理优化以提升其固碳能力。     

有流量资料地区历史洪量估算的新方法探讨

有流量地区历史洪量，由于同期洪水资料的缺乏，采用单一峰量关系进行相关计算成为必然。以往的峰量序列选择有同序列，同场次，年最大值三种方法，文章结合实际算例详细介绍了新的方法－峰量比组相关法，使历史洪量的推求趋于合理。     

柔性非光滑减粘脱附的自卸车模型试验研究

在柔性非光滑典型生物体表的仿生研究基础上，提出了一种自卸车装卸粘性土时解决其减粘脱附问题的新方法—柔性仿生减粘技术，对其减粘脱附作用进行了模型试验研究，优选了柔性仿生减粘技术方案，为在自卸车上的应用试验奠定了基础。     

基于贡献率模型的崩塌易发性评价——以广州市白云区为例

[目的] 根据地质灾害野外普查空间数据库,分析花岗岩风化残积土发育地区崩塌形成机理和破坏模式,探究不同环境孕灾因子对崩塌发育的贡献率,评估崩塌灾害空间易发性与分布规律,为中国东南沿海地质灾害多发区的灾害防治工作提供科学支持。[方法] 在分析广州市白云区花岗岩风化残积土崩塌发育特征的基础上,选取高程、坡度、坡向、地形起伏度、距地表水体距离、降雨量、地层岩性、土地利用类型共8个与崩塌灾害发育密切关联的致灾因子构建崩塌灾害易发性评价指标体系,叠加研究区内404个历史崩塌数据,依据贡献率模型计算统计各指标因子崩塌灾害敏感性和空间分布特征。采用各二级指标因子贡献率的修正样本差确定因子权重。[结果] ①研究区内坡度、高程和地形起伏度对崩塌易发性贡献程度较高,坡向、地层岩性、降雨量在崩塌灾害易发性评价中贡献程度较低。②极高易发区主要集中在丘陵西麓,崩塌易发性由山地线范围外层边缘向中心逐级降低。③崩塌极高易发区和高易发区崩塌比率占总崩塌比率超过85%,模型易发性评价成功率和预测率分别达到91.3%和92.6%。[结论] 斜坡地形地貌因子对崩塌发育影响较显著,基于贡献率的崩塌灾害易发性评价模型能够客观量化指标因子权重,模型预测评价结果精度较高,易发性区划符合实际崩塌发育空间分布特征。     

基于N-SPECT模型的胶东半岛土壤侵蚀及泥沙入海通量研究

[目的]探讨土壤侵蚀与土地利用的关系,为胶东半岛海岸带水环境保护和治理以及流域综合管理提供必要的技术支持和参考依据。[方法]在RS-GIS技术支持下,基于N-SPECT模型,对胶东半岛2006—2010年土壤侵蚀量及泥沙入海通量进行模拟。[结果]土壤侵蚀高值区集中于半岛东部和南部,低值区主要分布于半岛中部和中南部。大沽河流域、五龙河流域和大沽夹河流域3大流域对整个胶东半岛的土壤侵蚀贡献最大。针对3大流域之外的其他半岛区域,按照汇水区划分岸段,各岸段单位长度泥沙入海通量的空间差异显著,青岛市城阳区海岸、青岛南端(胶南)海岸、莱州湾东部海岸和威海西南端海岸泥沙通量最大。[结论]土壤侵蚀和产沙与源区土地利用结构密切相关。总体而言,耕地主导型区域是土壤侵蚀严重的区域,而林地和草地具有减轻土壤侵蚀的作用。     

Morphological and molecular diversity at a regional scale: A step closer to understanding Antarctic nematode biogeography

Antarctica is one of the harshest environments on earth and yet life has managed to persist on the continent for millions of years. While most of the continent is covered by snow and ice, in some coastal and mountain regions that do not have permanent cover terrestrial invertebrate fauna dominate. Nematodes are one of the most common taxa present in these environments, but despite their abundance very little work on diversity and distribution has been performed for the Phylum across the Antarctic continent. We examined nematodes from 123 limno-terrestrial samples from the vicinity of the Australian Antarctic Stations (62.8°E–110.5°E) using the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene, and morphological analyses. We identified the nematodes Plectus murrayi, Pl.cf. frigophilus, Scottnema cf. lindsayae, Halomonhystera cf. halophila, H. cf. continentalis and Eudorylaimus spp. The distribution of these species appears to be determined by habitat type and salinity. We also made comparisons using the COI gene with nematodes from localised sampling from Dronning Maud Land, Francis Island (Antarctic Peninsula), and Tierra del Fuego (TF), and also with COI sequences from other worldwide locations. Contrasting levels of COI sequence divergence were identified among genera and species, ranging from low levels for Pl. murrayi (≤0.5%), medium levels for S. cf. lindsayae (≤2.1%) and Halomonhystera (≤4.3%), and high within Pl.cf. frigophilus (≤8.4%). Distribution ranges varied according to the species, with widespread ranges within Antarctica for Pl. murrayi and Scottnema cf. lindsayae (a range of over 2000 km); and distribution beyond Antarctica to TF for Pl.cf. frigophilus. Our results reveal the presence of cryptic species even when conservative approaches are applied in species delimitation.     

Corn Responses to Phosphorus Application at Different Soil Phosphorus Levels on a Calcareous Soil

Phosphorus (P) in an high-pH soil may not be readily available to a crop, even though soil-testing procedures indicate high levels are present. A 2-year field study was conducted to determine corn yield responses to different rates of P fertilization as a function of soil-test P levels determined using the Mehlich-3 extractant. In 1 of the 2 years of this study, corn yields responded to P application across all soil P levels in a linear plateau fashion, indicating that P availability was limiting regardless of soil P levels. Where soil-test P was less than 40 mg kg^?1, corn yields showed a quadratic response to rate of P applied both years, and when soil-test P was between 40 and 60 mg kg^?1, corn yields showed a response only in the second year, when better growing conditions occurred. Soil-test P levels based on the Mehlich-3 extractant identified deficiencies in soil P availability to the crop, which could be corrected by P fertilization on a high-pH soil. Uptake efficiency of applied P was low, indicating that much of the P applied was not available to the crop.     

夏玉米不同生育阶段干湿变化的补偿效应研究

通过玉米单阶段和双阶段干旱及复水处理的小区试验研究证明，补偿效应是作物生长发育中存在的一种生存本能，其表现有产量、生长和生理等方面，苗期旱后的拔节期复水存在生长超补偿效应和较大产量补偿效应，其生理补偿效应可持续到抽雄期；抽雄期干旱的产量和水分利用效率明显降低，苗期、拔节期连续干旱则产量最低。     

滇东南石漠化山地不同退耕还林模式土壤地力变化初探

通过对滇东南西畴县石漠化山地12种不同退耕还林模式的土壤进行定点观测和地力变化分析,结果表明:土壤物理性状有很大改善,土壤抗蚀性和储水性增强,土壤养分提高,土壤吸收保存养分离子能力增强。对于提高地力而言,墨西哥柏+金银花、花椒+白枪杆、川滇桤木+红三叶、川滇桤木林、花椒+大白脉根和墨西哥柏+紫花苜蓿等6种模式较佳,值得在石漠化山地推广。     

A New Imitative Model to Predict the Impact of Air Pollutants on Scots Pine Health and Radial Increment

In order to address the problem of pollutant effects on trees against the background of environmental fluctuations a simulation model using radial increment as an indicator of tree productivity is proposed. Ring times series of large trees provide one of the most acceptable biological indicators for the assessment of pollutant impact. This research focused on the tallest severely damaged and healthy trees growing close to each other in the surroundings of Jonava Mineral Fertilizer plant, which primarily emits nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) compounds. The annual increment was found to be strongly correlated with mean September air temperature of the previous year and S load. The correlation coefficient (k=0.961) between modelled and observed tree ring times series of severely damaged trees proves the impact of S load on growth and vitality of a tree and enables fulfillment of tree condition prognosis.     

Seasonal Variation of NOx Loss Processes Coupled to the HNO3 Formation in a Daytime Urban Atmosphere: A Model Study

Heavy metal concentrations of the acid-soluble fraction in sediment core samples from Nagaike, a reservoir in Osaka City, Japan, were measured by ICP-MS following the microwave extraction method. Spiked peaks for several metals in the sediment core samples were observed around 1960. The results of correlation coefficient study and cluster analysis of heavy metal concentrations in the sediment core samples showed that some metals, such as Cr, Cd, Ni and Cu, in the period of the spiked peak were derived from the different emission sources from other periods. These metals are often used for metal plating, and it was concluded that the spiked peaks were caused by illegal effluent from the metal plating industry. The load amounts of heavy metals by illegal dumping were calculated and the magnitude of the pollution was estimated.     

Mercury Contamination Through Fish Consumption: A Model for Predicting and Preventing Hazardous Behaviour on a Community Level

The relationship between the consumption offish containing methylmercury (MeHg) and human MeHg levels has been studied for many years. Although this relationship has been demonstrated and some models have been developed to assess the risks associated with fish consumption, there is still a need for a simple and efficient predicting tool that can be applied to community settings. This paper provides such a practical model developed through empirical evidence using two sources of data. In ideal conditions, models used to identify hazardous behaviour in individuals would be derived from theoretical and clinical models, however, these conditions are often technically difficult to meet. To overcome this problem, a more empirically oriented model has been developed, based on the estimation of personal mercury intake and its comparison to the Tolerable Daily Intake. The theory and methodology of the model development, including technical limitations, are presented first. The methodology is then applied to the real data to create the final model and the results given. Finally, a discussion of the model's accuracy, limitations and usefulness as a community health assessment tool is presented.     

A Dynamic Mass-balance Model for Phosphorus in Lakes with a Focus on Criteria for Applicability and Boundary Conditions

This paper presents an improved version of a general, process-based mass-balance model (LakeMab/LEEDS) for phosphorus in entire lakes (the ecosystem scale). The focus in this work is set on the boundary conditions, i.e., the domain of the model, and critical tests to reveal those boundary conditions using data from a wide limnological range. The basic structure of the model, and many key equations have been presented and motivated before, but this work presents several new developments. The LakeMab-model is based on ordinary differential equations regulating inflow, outflow and internal fluxes and the temporal resolution is one month to reflect seasonal variations. The model consists of four compartments: surface water, deep water, sediment on accumulation areas and sediment on areas of erosion and transportation. The separation between the surface-water layer and the deep-water layer is not done from water temperature data, but from sedimentological criteria (from the theoretical wave base, which regulates where wind/wave-induced resuspension of fine sediments occurs). There are algorithms for processes regulating internal fluxes and internal loading, e.g., sedimentation, resuspension, diffusion, mixing and burial. Critical model tests were made using data from 41 lakes of very different character and the results show that the model could predict mean monthly TP-concentrations in water very well (generally within the uncertainty bands given by the empirical data). The model is even easier to apply than the well-known OECD and Vollenweider models due to more easily accessed driving variables.