基于碳承载力对河南省能源消费碳排放及其驱动因素的研究

实现碳达峰、碳中和对我国经济社会系统的变革具有深远的影响,定期开展区域性碳排放量研究对生态系统的保护具有重要的意义。本文基于河南省近20年的能源消费碳排放数据和陆地生态系统碳承载力数据,对近年来碳排放量情况进行了分析,并采用LMDI（logarithmic mean divisia index）因素分解模型和Tapio脱钩模型,对碳排放驱动因素以及与经济耦合情况进行了探讨。结果表明：（1）从2000年至2020年,河南省碳排放量呈现“先急后缓”的增长状态,在2012年后增加量开始减少并逐渐趋于稳定。（2）整体上,经济产出效应和人口规模效应对碳排放起促进作用;与之相反,能源消费强度效应和能源消费结构效应抑制了碳排放,经济产出效应的影响在减少,能源消费强度效应的影响在增加。（3）由Tapio脱钩模型分析得出,河南省碳排放与经济增长之间以弱脱钩为主,脱钩指数逐年减小,逐步向强脱钩状态迈进。总的来说,从2000年至2020年河南省碳排放情况得到了很好的控制,合理规划土地利用、提高新能源的消费比重、降低能源消费强度对该地区节能减排具有重要意义。     

基于LMDI方法的恩施州化肥施用驱动因素分析

近年来由化肥过量施用造成的农业面源污染问题日益突出,加大农业污染治理力度,探究化肥施用强度的变化特征及其驱动因素,可以为减肥增效、推进农业绿色发展提供科学依据.研究以湖北省恩施州为实证对象,在研究其时空变化特征的基础上,通过综合考虑化肥施用效率、区域施肥结构、农业技术发展、复种指数、耕地面积等因素,构建对数平均迪氏指数...     

驱动因素视角的我国农业旅游发展模式与策略研究*

近年来,农业旅游在我国各地悄然兴起,逐渐成为农业经营的新形态和旅游发展的生力军.农业旅游的发展对丰富农业产业形态、增加农民收入、促进农村产业结构优化升级、拓展旅游产业领域具有重要意义.本文评述了国内外农业旅游发展与研究现状,从市场需求、城市化和农村经济结构转型等角度分析了我国农业旅游发展背景,总结了我国农业旅游发展的驱动力类型:区位交通驱动、城市带动、旅游地拉动、自身垄断资源驱动等,基于驱动类型提出了我国农业旅游的对应开发策略:区位交通驱动型——产品开发特色化策略、城市带动型——主题深入化发展策略、旅游地拉动型——联动化发展策略、资源驱动型——品牌化发展策略、综合驱动型——优先发展,以期对我国农业旅游的健康、可持续发展具有借鉴和指导意义.     

中国农业碳排放绩效评价及随机性收敛研究——基于SBM-Undesirable模型与面板单位根检验

当前,全局层面及工业视角下的碳排放绩效评价和收敛性分析已趋于成熟,但农业碳排放方面的研究尚十分薄弱。为补充相关研究,对区域农业碳排放总量、绩效及两者的收敛趋势有更清晰的认识,本文在测算2000—2014年我国30个省市农业碳排放总量的基础上,运用SBM-Undesirable模型计算农业碳排放绩效,并通过面板单位根检验方法对全国和各区域的农业碳排放总量及绩效进行了随机性收敛检验。结果显示:1)2000—2014年间,全国农业碳排放量整体呈递增趋势,但各区域排放量差异明显。比较中部与全国、东部和西部各年总量均值,发现2000年的差值分别为3.357 4?106 t,3.965 0?106 t和5.904 7?106 t,到2014年,差距扩大至5.244 8?106 t,7.351 2?106 t和7.681 0?106 t,对应增长比例分别为56.2%、85.4%和30.0%。2)各区域农业碳排放绩效存在显著差异。绩效均值折线图显示,东部平均绩效较高,15年来基本稳定在0.8左右;西部和中部绩效均值较低,绝大多数年份处于0.3~0.5,但西部不断改善,中部则持续下降。3)对总量进行收敛性检验,发现全国、西部、中部呈现明显的随机性分异,仅东部出现随机性趋同;在绩效的收敛性检验中,全国范围内不存在随机性收敛,但东部、中部、西部各自呈俱乐部式随机性收敛态势。随机性收敛检验结果表明,中国农业碳排放总量和绩效不会自动降低到稳态水平,有必要进行相关政策干预,以缩小各省市间的差距。本研究为制定区域间差异化和区域内统一性农业减排政策奠定了基础。     

基于Logistic-Markov方法的土地利用结构变化多因素驱动预测模型研究与应用

[目的]探索土地利用结构变化的驱动规律及其预测方法,为在社会经济快速发展背景下抑制建设用地扩张、优化城乡土地利用等提供决策参考。[方法]利用主成分分析,Logistic,Markov等方法研究土地利用结构变化的驱动力,分析土地利用结构状态转移矩阵与驱动因素的数量关系,构建基于多因素驱动的土地利用结构变化预测模型。[结果]以地处"长三角"经济区的江苏省泰兴市为例,测算了城镇发展、经济发展和管理政策等土地利用结构变化驱动力,其中城镇工矿用地扩张的驱动力增加了25.85%,耕地减少的驱动力则降低了22.21%,并预测分析了2010—2020年的土地利用结构变化特征,预测精度相对提高了0.52%。[结论]多因素驱动的土地利用结构变化预测方法,能够科学地诠释土地利用结构变化及其驱动力的作用机理,可以提高预测精度,为分析区域土地利用变化规律提供一种新方法。     

我国能源消费与CO2排放的系统动力学预测

目前我国正处在全面建设小康社会的重要发展阶段。在人口总量增加、经济持续发展、居民生活能源消费不断提高的情况下,对能源供需状况进行科学、合理的预测对保障我国能源供给、促进经济可持续发展和CO₂减排,实现社会可持续发展具有重要意义。本文在研究我国现阶段能源消费和人口、经济发展现状的基础上,运用系统动力学模型预测了我国能源需求和CO₂排放量,提出能源发展和削减CO₂排放量的设想和对策。     

中国农村户用沼气工程建设对减排CO2、SO2的贡献——分析与预测

农村户用沼气工程是中国可再生能源建设的重点项目，可为农村居民生活提供清洁的可再生能源，该工程的建设能减轻农村环境污染，有助于部分缓解全球气候变暖的趋势。该文根据国际通用的减排量计算方法，对中国农村户用沼气替代传统生物质能和煤炭所产生的CO₂和SO₂的减排量进行了计算分析，为制定农村能源发展战略和农村环境发展规划提供参考。研究结果表明，在1996～2003年间，每年可减少CO₂排放39.76～419.39万t，减少SO₂排放2.13～6.20万t。通过对2010、2020和2050年沼气替代农村传统能源减排CO₂和SO₂量的预测，证明农村户用沼气工程的建设可以有效减少CO₂和SO₂的排放。     

A new technique to measure soil CO2 efflux at constant CO2 concentration

A new principle for measuring soil CO₂ efflux at constant ambient concentration is introduced. The measuring principle relies on the continuous absorption of CO₂ within the system to achieve a constant CO₂ concentration inside the soil chamber at ambient level, thus balancing the amount of CO₂ entering the soil chamber by diffusion from the soil. We report results that show reliable soil CO₂ efflux measurements with the new system. The novel measuring principle does not disturb the natural gradient of CO₂ within the soil, while allowing for continuous capture of the CO₂ released from the soil. It therefore holds great potential for application in simultaneous measurements of soil CO₂ efflux and its δ¹³C, since both variables show sensitivity to a distortion of the soil CO₂ profile commonly found in conventional chamber techniques.     

Relationship between soil CO2 concentrations and forest-floor CO2 effluxes

To better understand the biotic and abiotic factors that control soil CO₂ efflux, we compared seasonal and diurnal variations in simultaneously measured forest-floor CO₂ effluxes and soil CO₂ concentration profiles in a 54-year-old Douglas fir forest on the east coast of Vancouver Island. We used small solid-state infrared CO₂ sensors for long-term continuous real-time measurement of CO₂ concentrations at different depths, and measured half-hourly soil CO₂ effluxes with an automated non-steady-state chamber. We describe a simple steady-state method to measure CO₂ diffusivity in undisturbed soil cores. The method accounts for the CO₂ production in the soil and uses an analytical solution to the diffusion equation. The diffusivity was related to air-filled porosity by a power law function, which was independent of soil depth. CO₂ concentration at all depths increased with increase in soil temperature, likely due to a rise in CO₂ production, and with increase in soil water content due to decreased diffusivity or increased CO₂ production or both. It also increased with soil depth reaching almost 10 mmol mol⁻¹ at the 50-cm depth. Annually, soil CO₂ efflux was best described by an exponential function of soil temperature at the 5-cm depth, with the reference efflux at 10 °C (F₁₀) of 2.6 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ and the Q₁₀ of 3.7. No evidence of displacement of CO₂-rich soil air with rain was observed.Effluxes calculated from soil CO₂ concentration gradients near the surface closely agreed with the measured effluxes. Calculations indicated that more than 75% of the soil CO₂ efflux originated in the top 20 cm soil. Calculated CO₂ production varied with soil temperature, soil water content and season, and when scaled to 10 °C also showed some diurnal variation. Soil CO₂ efflux and concentrations as well as soil temperature at the 5-cm depth varied in phase. Changes in CO₂ storage in the 0–50 cm soil layer were an order of magnitude smaller than measured effluxes. Soil CO₂ efflux was proportional to CO₂ concentration at the 50-cm depth with the slope determined by soil water content, which was consistent with a simple steady-state analytical model of diffusive transport of CO₂ in the soil. The latter proved successful in calculating effluxes during 2004.     

冬季施用鸡粪和生物炭对南方稻田土壤CO2与CH4排放的影响

生物炭的利用近年来是农田土壤固碳减排研究中的热点。本研究通过在冬季稻田养鸡,结合生物炭添加,采用箱式法结合温室气体分析仪定量测定冬季稻田和双季稻期间土壤CO_2和CH_4排放通量,分别估算冬季稻田和双季稻期间土壤CO_2和CH_4排放总量,评估生物炭和鸡粪添加对土壤碳排放的影响。结果表明,鸡粪还田处理显著提高了土壤CO_2的排放,冬季稻田和水稻生育期排放量分别达9 935.39 kg·hm~(-2)和27 756.34kg·hm~(-2),比对照增加58.7倍(P0.01)和56%(P0.05);生物炭添加处理冬季稻田和水稻生育期CO_2累积排放量比对照高12.3倍(P0.01)和41%(P0.05)。鸡粪还田处理下冬季稻田和水稻生育期稻田的CH_4排放量均显著高于其他处理;而生物碳添加对冬季稻田CH_4排放无显著影响,但显著降低了水稻生育期稻田的CH_4排放。鸡粪还田配施生物炭处理也显著提高了稻田土壤CO_2的排放。冬季稻田时,鸡粪还田配施生物炭土壤CO_2累积排放量显著高于鸡粪还田处理;而水稻生育期时,鸡粪还田配施生物炭处理下土壤CO_2累积排放量显著低于鸡粪还田处理。鸡粪还田下添加生物碳可以降低因鸡粪还田引起的CH_4排放增加的效应。总之,鸡粪原位还田显著增加了冬季稻田和水稻生育期稻田的CO_2和CH_4排放;无论是冬季稻田还是水稻生育期,生物炭的添加都降低了土壤CH_4的排放,且生物炭添加后期有抑制土壤CO_2排放的作用。因此,从更长的时间尺度来看,生物炭施入土壤有利于土壤固碳减排。     

Elevated CO2 does not favor a fungal decomposition pathway

We examined the effect of prolonged elevated CO₂ on the concentration of fungal- and bacterial-derived compounds by quantifying the soil contents of the amino sugars glucosamine, galactosamine and muramic acid. Soil samples were collected from three different terrestrial ecosystems (grassland, an aspen forest and a soybean/corn agroecosystem) that were exposed to elevated CO₂ under FACE conditions for 3-10 years. Amino sugars were extracted from bulk soil and analyzed by gas chromatography. Elevated CO₂ did not affect the size or composition of the amino sugar pool in any of the systems. However, high rates of fertilizer N applications decreased the amount of fungal-derived residues in the grassland system. We suggest that these results are caused by a decrease in saprophytic fungi following high N additions. Furthermore, our findings imply that the contribution of saprophytic fungi and bacteria to SOM in the studied ecosystems is largely unaffected by elevated CO₂.     

几种主要CO2施肥肥源性能的比较与评价

在空闲拱棚和黄瓜日光温室内，分别研究了化学反应法(H₂SO₄+NH₄HCO₃）、煤球燃烧法和颗粒CO₂气肥3种肥源的性能，并与液体CO₂进行成本比较，结果表明：化学反应法产气迅速，设备折旧成本较低；煤球燃烧法产气速度中等，原料成本最低；颗粒CO₂气肥产气速度较慢且不易调控，原料成本最高。考虑化学反应产物的再利用因素，化学反应法、煤球燃烧法和液体CO₂ 3种肥源总成本接近，但从生态、节能、成本和效果等方面综合评价，煤球燃烧法原料丰富、成本低廉，较符合我国目前的设施、经济、资源和技术条件。     

液面上部气体的置换对土壤厌氧培养下的N2O和CO2排放的影响

To study effect of C2H2 and change of headspace gas on N2O emission,denitrification,as well as CO2 emission,slurries of an agricultural soil were anaerobically incubated for 7 days at 25℃.Both N2O reduction and CO2 emissions were inhibited by the addition of 100 mL L^-1 of C2H2.However,the inhibition to CO2 emission was alleviated by the replacement of headspace gas,and the N2O emission was enhanced by the replacement.Acetylene disappeared evidently from the soil slurries during the incubation.Consequently results obtained from the traditional C2H2 blocking technique for determination of denitrifcation rate,especially in a long-time incubation,should be explained with care because of its side effect exsting in the incubation environments without change of headspace gas.To reduce the possible side effect on the processes other than denitrification ,it is suggested that headspace gas should be replaced several times during a long-time incubation.     

Elevated CO2 and plant species diversity interact to slow root decomposition

Changes in plant species diversity can result in synergistic increases in decomposition rates, while elevated atmospheric CO₂ can slow the decomposition rates; yet it remains unclear how diversity and changes in atmospheric CO₂ may interact to alter root decomposition. To investigate how elevated CO₂ interacts with changes in root-litter diversity to alter decomposition rates, we conducted a 120-day laboratory incubation. Roots from three species (Trifolium repens, Lespedeza cuneata, and Festuca pratense) grown under ambient or elevated CO₂ were incubated individually or in combination in soils that were exposed to ambient or elevated CO₂ for five years. Our experiment resulted in two main findings: (1) Roots from T. repens and L. cuneata, both nitrogen (N) fixers, grown under elevated CO₂ treatments had significantly slower decomposition rates than similar roots grown under ambient CO₂ treatments; but the decomposition rate of F. pratense roots (a non-N-fixing species) was similar regardless of CO₂ treatment. (2) Roots of the three species grown under ambient CO₂ and decomposed in combination with each other had faster decomposition rates than when they were decomposed as single species. However, roots of the three species grown under elevated CO₂ had similar decomposition rates when they were incubated alone or in combination with other species. These data suggest that if elevated CO₂ reduces the root decomposition rate of even a few species in the community, it may slow root decomposition of the entire plant community.     

农村土地整治项目CO2排放及减排政策下的情景模拟

[目的]揭示农村土地整治的CO_2排放效应,为土地整理的碳排放研究提供科学参考。[方法]在项目预算书编制的基础上,采用IPCC清单法,估算农村土地整治项目的 CO_2排放量,分析影响CO_2排放的关键因子,模拟不同政策情景下农村土地整治项目CO_2排放的变化情况。[结果]项目的 CO_2排放总量约5.50×105t,灌溉与排水工程所占比例最大;水泥是最主要的碳源,占总排放量的92.07%,碳源材料的CO_2排放量直接取决于该类材料的CO_2排放系数及消耗量,间接取决于各单项工程的工程量和工程结构;随着相关节能减排政策力度的加大,减排量也会随之增多。[结论]应在土地整治规划设计中贯彻绿色、低碳、环保的设计理念,重视土地整治的生态效应;加大对水泥、电力、钢铁等能源密集型行业的节能减排力度,严格执行国家减排政策。