茶叶主产区订单农业有效性及契约稳定性研究——以西南地区茶叶生产为例

订单农业是促进产业融合、提高农业产业化水平的重要方式,但订单农业的效果却参差不齐。同时,违约率高、稳定性差是中国订单农业实践中的客观现实。利用西南地区茶叶主产县茶叶种植户调查数据,基于心理契约理论,分析订单农业模式的有效性、稳定性,探讨订单农业稳定性的影响因素。结果表明,尽管订单农业参与率低,只有33.79%茶农参加了订单农业,但无论是农民增收还是技术及服务普及方面,订单农业模式都有效,不过就其效果而言,生产合同模式效果优于销售合同模式。农户对高的相对收益、技术及服务可得性、交易公平合理性、满意度、风险共担关系的感知越强烈,越把交易伙伴视为朋友,农户履行协议可能性越高。在是否履约方面,农户是理性的。只有在不损害自己经济利益时,交易伙伴对农户的人情投资才对农户履行协议起促进作用。因此,应鼓励茶叶加工企业通过生产合同模式与农户展开互利合作;茶叶加工企业应通过推广普及现代茶叶生产技术及服务来提高茶业整体经济效益,并与农户分享,还应加强与农户的沟通、交流,争取得到农户的理解,让农户感受到交易的公平性,提高对交易的满意度,把茶叶加工企业当作帮助自己发家致富的朋友。     

Risk preferences and the low-carbon agricultural technology adoption: Evidence from rice production in China

Climate change which is mainly caused by carbon emissions is a global problem affecting the economic development and well-being of human society. Low-carbon agriculture is of particular significance in slowing down global warming and reaching the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”. Therefore, taking straw incorporation as an example, this paper aims to investigate the impact of risk preferences on farmers’ low-carbon agricultural technology (LCAT) adoption. Based on a two-phase micro-survey data of 1 038 rice farmers in Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Hunan provinces, this paper uses experimental economics methods to measure farmers’ risk aversion and loss aversion to obtain the real risk preferences information of the farmers. We also explore the data to examine the actual LCAT adoption behavior of farmers. The results revealed that both risk aversion and loss aversion significantly inhibit farmers’ LCAT adoption: more risk-averse or more loss-averse farmers are less likely to adopt LCAT. It is further found that crop insurance, farm scale and governmental regulations can alleviate the negative impact of risk aversion and loss aversion on farmers’ LCAT adoption. Therefore, we propose that local governments need to promote low-carbon agricultural development by propagating the benefits of LCAT, extending crop insurance, promoting appropriate scale operations, and strengthening governmental regulations to promote farmers’ LCAT adoption.     

服务外包、契约选择对小麦生产技术效率的影响——基于河南省100个村3 305个农户的实证分析

为探究服务外包和契约选择对小麦生产技术效率的影响,基于河南省3 305份农户调查数据,以服务外包为研究视角,采用柯布道格拉斯生产函数对河南省小麦生产技术效率进行测算,并运用Tobit模型进行实证研究。结果表明:1)河南样本农户小麦生产平均技术效率为0.7,土地的产出弹性最大,劳动力的产出弹性最小;2)服务外包程度越高,小麦生产技术效率越高;3)服务外包中,农户签订空合约、口头合约等非正式契约比书面合约更能提高其生产技术效率,农户与服务提供方关系的远近对小麦生产技术效率有显著影响。因此,鼓励农户参与服务外包;鼓励农业服务组织提高服务质量,甚至通过纵向合作实现服务规模化;当前不应强推生产的合约化,以提高农业生产技术效率。     

农村土地承包经营权确权对土地流转的影响研究——来自湖北省土地确权的实证

农村进入全面深化改革攻坚时期,研究农村土地承包经营权确权对土地流转的影响,对完善当前土地确权政策、促进农村土地流转、发展现代农业有重要的意义。基于湖北省6个地区土地确权和土地流转情况的实地调查,运用Probit模型和Logistic模型,分析是否确权和确权满意度对农户转入和转出的影响,探讨农村土地承包经营权确权对土地流转的影响。结果表明,在确权比例为75.56%的样本数据中,农户土地确权使农户参与土地流转的边际效应提高14.0%,农村承包土地确权登记颁证能够显著促进农地转出,而对农地转入影响不显著。土地确权的满意度高使农户参与土地流转的边际效应提高16.4%,农村承包土地确权登记颁证满意度对农地转出和转入均影响显著。农村土地承包经营权确权对土地流转的影响受到调查村所处地形条件等社会经济特征、承包耕地面积等家庭特征和主要工作等个人特征的影响,但影响程度存在一定差异。因此,可以采取加强宣传引导、提升土地确权颁证的满意度、加强农民的技能培训、完善农村基础设施建设等措施更好地促进农村土地有序流转。     

耕地经营规模与化肥减施效应——来自江西省水稻种植户的证据

在当前农业面源污染日益严重的背景下研究耕地经营规模对化肥减施的影响,对实现我国农业绿色可持续发展有着重大的理论和现实意义。本文以江西省8县(市)769份水稻种植农户为研究对象,利用引入工具变量的两阶段最小二乘法(IV-2SLS)探讨耕地经营规模与化肥减施效应之间的内在机理。结果表明：耕地经营规模对化肥施用强度产生了显著的影响,两者呈“U”型关系,适度规模为4.60 hm²,即化肥施用强度随着经营规模的扩大首先下降,达到适度规模后发生增长。耕地流入和耕地质量在经营规模对化肥减施效应中都产生了显著的增强性调节作用。进一步研究发现,新、老一代农户的耕地经营规模对化肥减施效应都产生了显著影响;丘陵山区的耕地经营规模对化肥减施效应产生了显著影响,平原地区不显著;二兼户的耕地经营规模对化肥减施效应产生了显著影响,一兼户不显著。因此,政府应进一步积极推动耕地适度流转。改造农业基础设施,建设高标准农田,提高耕地质量和规模化经营水平。同时对不同类型的农户和不同自然条件的地区,采取有差别的耕地保护措施。     

The role of culture in farmer learning and technology adoption: A case study of farmer field schools among rice farmers in central Luzon, Philippines

The goal of this paper is to show how culture – shared norms and values – is challenged and used to facilitate cooperative behavior within the context of farmer field schools (FFS) in central Luzon, Philippines. The success of the FFS is primarily associated with cultural norms that encourage experiential and collective learning and eventually lead to the adoption of integrated pest management (IPM) methods among the farmers. The study was conducted in central Luzon, the rice granary region of the Philippines, from 1992 to 1995 and again in 1999. Both qualitative and quantitative research methods were employed. Results indicate that a keen understanding of Filipino culture and values is essential if FFS is to be successful and if farmers are to successfully learn and practice IPM. Florencia Palis has a PhD in anthropology and is working as a post-doctoral fellow at the Crop and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) of the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines. She is also an adjunct faculty member at the Department of Agricultural Systems of Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen, Thailand.     

耕地经营规模及其质量禀赋对农户生产环节外包行为的影响——基于中国广西水稻种植农户的调研数据

为了解耕地经营规模及耕地质量禀赋对农户生产环节外包行为的影响,以广西2014年典型地区的水稻种植为例,利用Poisson模型和Logit模型,以耕地经营规模及其质量禀赋作为核心解释变量,分析其对农户水稻生产环节外包决策的影响。结果表明:耕地经营规模扩大会使农户更倾向于生产环节中采用外包,尤其是在整地、收获这些劳动密集型环节;耕地肥沃程度会显著提高农户在生产环节采用外包服务的可能性和频率;出于外包成本的考虑,随着耕地经营规模的扩大,农户会减少在诸如灌溉等作业频繁的生产环节的外包可能性,也会减少整个生产环节外包的次数。     

健康视角下我国南亚热带水田粮食产能关键限制因子识别——以广州市从化区为例

在国际粮食供需环境剧变及国内耕地非农化压力下，保障国家粮食安全，保证健康状态下耕地的粮食产能是全社会的重中之重。但是现有的耕地质量认知仍偏重于“自然环境本底”与“投入-产出”作用的耦合效应，缺乏从健康视角对耕地粮食产能关键限制因子的多维度考量。以广州市从化区为研究区，在大量样本采样检测和实地调研测产的基础上，采用地理探测器识别了健康视角下我国南亚热带水田粮食产能关键限制因子。结果表明：我国南亚热带水田粮食产能受地理环境健康背景、土壤健康状况和农田健康人工环境3个健康维度协同影响，三者贡献力分别为2.702、2.025和1.200，13个影响因素贡献力（q值）介于0.012~0.865之间，36个影响因子贡献力介于0.004~0.537之间。健康视角下我国南亚热带水田粮食产能关键限制因子主要为农田水文条件、土壤物理与微量元素健康状况、土壤侵蚀状况、生产保障措施和人为管理强度中的7个因子，其贡献力介于0.299~0.537之间，贡献力大小依次为：表土质地 > 平均水位变化 > 农作活动频率 > 土壤侵蚀程度 > 灌溉保障能力 > 有效硅含量 > 灌溉方法。受现代农业种植策略影响，我国南亚热带水田中土壤肥力、酸碱度和生物健康水平普遍较高，但土壤有效硅含量严重不足，基于灌溉保障和灌溉方法的农田精准水环境管理措施也亟需重视。可见，农田粮食产能的“木桶效应”仍严重威胁粮食安全，导致粮食产能的不稳定性与空间差异性，建议高度重视不同土壤类型中的微量元素健康状况及农作物生长过程中水环境的精准管理。     

Impacts of formal credit on rural household income: Evidence from deprived areas in western China

Financial support is a crucial part of China's poverty alleviation effort. Thus, it is vital to understand how formal credit impacts income growth in rural households. In 2012, 2015, and 2018, a survey was conducted to obtain a panel dataset of 592 rural households from 6 poverty-stricken counties in western China, including counties in Guizhou, Yunnan, and Shaanxi provinces. We use the data to examine the effect of formal credit on rural household income and the mechanism that underlies this effect. We find that formal credit can significantly increase rural households' income in deprived areas in western China. Furthermore, formal credit promotes the reallocation of household labor from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector and changes rural households' decisions about investment-consumption behavior. These are the drivers of changes in the amount and structure of household income. Further analyses show that formal credit may widen income inequality among rural households in western China's deprived areas. The individual characteristics of rural households, such as different levels of material capital, human capital, and social capital, bring about differences in the effects of formal credit on income growth. This study emphasizes that the implementation of formal credit is an essential strategy for poverty alleviation in underdeveloped areas, but policymakers should not excessively interfere with the financial market.     

The Evolution of Organic Carbon in Chinese Mollisol Under Different Farming Systems: Validation and Prediction by Using Century Model

Soil organic carbon （SOC） is an important indicator of soil degradation process. In this study, the long-term SOC evolution in Chinese mollisol farmland was simulated and predicted by validating, analyzing, processing and assorting concerning data, based on clarifying parameters of Century model need, combined with best use of recorded data of field management, observed data of long-term experiments, climate, soil, and biology, and achieved results from Hailun Agro-Ecological Experimental Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results were showed as follows： Before reclamation, SOC content was around 58.00 g kg^-1, SOC content dropped quickly in early years, and then decreased slowly after reclamation. SOC content was around 34.00 g kg^-1 with a yearly average rate of 8.91‰ decrease before long-term experiments was established. After a long-term experiment, SOC would change under different farming systems. Shift farming system changed as follows： By 20-year model simulation, SOC content decreased from 34.03 to 30.19 g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 5.97‰; by 100-year model simulation, SOC content decreased to 24.31 g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 3.36‰. Organic farming system changed as follows： By 20-year model simulation, SOC content decreased slowly from 34.03 to 33.39 g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 0.95‰, 5‰ less than that of shift farming system; by 100-year model simulation, SOC content decreased to 32.21 g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 0.55‰. ＂Petroleum＂ farming system changed as follows： By 20-year model simulation, SOC content decreased from 34.03 to 32.88 g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 1.72‰, much more than that of organic farming system; by 100-year model simulation, SOC content decreased to 30.89 g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 0.96‰. Combined ＂petroleum＂-organic farming system changed as follows： By 20-year model simulation, SOC content was increased slightly; by 100-year model simulation, SOC content increased from 3     

现代化视域下清末民初中国茶叶贸易的式微——以《东方杂志》为中心的考察

《东方杂志》作为中国近代史上最为悠久的大型综合性杂志、影响最大的百科全景式老期刊之一,对清末民初中国茶叶贸易的情况给予了持续的密切关注,也进行了精到的分析,提出了自己的改革主张。以《东方杂志》为中心的考察,可以清晰地看到,清末甲午战争之后在现代化转型中,中国的茶叶贸易日渐衰落,在对欧美贸易上表现得尤其明显,不复从前的繁荣局面。民初基本延续这一颓势,下滑之势无可阻挡。     

外出务工对农民成为合作社负责人的影响 ——基于全国粮食种植业职业农民的分析

外出务工返乡农民被认为是解决中国“谁来种地”、提高中国农业组织化程度的重要希望,政府也在大力宣传、引导外出务工返乡农民投身农业并引领合作社等新型经营主体发展。本文基于新迁移经济学等理论,利用具有全国代表性的粮食种植业职业农民的大样本数据,运用二元模型、双重稳健模型、匹配模型和多元定序模型等计量方法,分析了外出务工对农民成为合作社负责人的影响。结果表明,在粮食种植业职业农民中,外出务工返乡农民占比为23.66%,合作社负责人占比为24.59%。外出务工返乡农民中合作社负责人的占比为34.65%,没有外出务工的农民中合作社负责人的占比为21.47%,两者相差约13个百分点。计量分析结果表明,相比没有外出务工的农民,外出务工返乡农民成为合作社负责人的概率要显著高出约6个百分点,即调查样本中外出务工返乡农民要比其他农民成为合作社负责人的概率高出近1/4,这证实了外出务工对农民成为合作社负责人的正向促进作用。外出务工通过人力资本提升、农业生产投入和政府政策支持三个方面促使返乡农民工更可能成为合作社负责人。因此,在当前农业转型阶段,政府一方面应鼓励人力资本水平较低的青年农民外出就业,通过务工积累个人资本;另一方面,应大力吸引并帮助优秀的返乡农民工投身农业和乡村振兴事业,发挥他们更多的引领带动作用。     

畜牧业纵向协作特征及其影响因素分析——来自内蒙古养羊户的经验证据

为了解畜牧业纵向协作的基本特征与制约因素,采用内蒙古巴彦淖尔市肉羊生产的调研数据,对养羊户精饲料采购和活羊出售环节纵向协作的影响因素进行计量分析。结果表明:养羊户外购精饲料主要为满足数量需求,同时受到资金、配比饲料能力、生产惯性和外部服务环境的影响;养羊户选择大型饲料企业合作社购买精饲料,一定程度上为满足质量需求,并受到交易费用和家庭特征的影响;养羊户活羊销售渠道选择受家庭特征、生产经营特征和交易费用的影响,且加入合作社对不同种类活羊的纵向协作影响不同。因此,可以通过加大贴息贷款与服务水平,对养殖户饲料使用进行技术培训,饲料企业提高和改善服务水平,鼓励规模经营等路径以提高畜牧业纵向协作效率。     

中国农田表土有机碳含量变化探讨——基于中文期刊网论文资料的统计分析

检索获取了中国期刊网收录的1980—2009年间土壤研究文献,提取了其中研究样品的有机质含量信息并形成数据库,统计评价了我国农田表土有机碳含量变化情况。结果表明:1985年以前文献土壤样品有机碳含量平均为(12.88±7.86)g·kg-1,1985—1992年则为(11.26±6.30)g·kg-1,1993—2002年为(11.67±5.11)g·kg-1,而2003—2009年为(11.72±7.15)g·kg-1;显示,1985年以来农田表土有机碳含量呈现总体上升趋势,支持了我们对土壤监测资料的分析结果。土地利用方式显著影响土壤样品的有机碳含量水平,水田总是高于旱地(P<0.05),不随时间变化而改变;旱地土壤样品的有机碳含量以1985年前为最高,而水田样品2003—2009年期间含量高于1985年前水平。同时分析表明,旱地农田表土有机碳含量区域差异明显,近30年来,旱地农田表土有机碳含量在华北、华东、西北增加显著(P<0.05);而在东北显著降低(P<0.05);华南、西南有机碳含量变化不明显(P>0.05)。这些结果支持了已有的土壤监测资料和调查资料研究中中国土壤固碳趋势及其地理区域分异的认识。     

公平与安全对农民工社会融入的影响研究——基于生活满意和经济收入的作用

作为城市的新移民,农民工的社会融入问题日益受到社会各界的关注。基于社会比较理论、需求层次理论和社会阶层理论,以河北省秦皇岛、唐山、保定和石家庄4个城市的农民工为研究对象,应用结构方程模型,分析了公平感和安全感对农民工社会融入的影响,及其间生活满意的中介效应和经济收入的调节效应,探讨其整个过程的心理作用机制和边界条件。结果表明,生活满意在公平感对社会融入的影响过程中起着部分中介作用;生活满意在安全感对社会融入的影响过程中起到了完全中介的作用;经济收入负向调节公平感和安全感与生活满意的关系,即经济收入越高,上述关系越弱。可见,公平感和安全感会影响农民工的社会融入程度,其影响多是通过心理评价活动来间接产生的。因此,政府应着重关注社会公平和安全体系的建设,维护农民工合法权益,关注其心理健康,使之以一个积极的心态融入城市生活。     

A comparison of two IPM training strategies in China: The importance of concepts of the rice ecosystem for sustainable insect pest management

Our study in China of two Integrated Pest Management (IPM) training programs for farmers shows that one is more effective than the other in reducing pesticide applications as well as in imparting to farmers an understanding of the rice ecosystem. The two training programs are based upon two different paradigms of IPM. This article uses a triangulated method of measuring concept attainment among farmer trainees in China as one measure of the effectiveness of training. Concepts of insect ecology brought about by training, as well as persistence of concepts one year after training, are measured. This information is compared to farmer data on pesticide applications and yields in order to determine the comparative effectiveness of two models of IPM farmer training in Sichuan Province. Results indicate that the Farmer Field School (FFS) model of training, based upon a new Ecology-Based IPM paradigm, is more effective than the 3 Pests 3 Diseases (3P3D) model based upon an older Economic Threshold IPM paradigm. Crop yield results and pesticide applications by farmers after training are also used to indicate which of these paradigms of insect pest control is more effective, hence scientifically accurate.     

从保守主义的角色演变看中国近代文化的发展进路

在中国近代文化转型的过程中,保守主义在各个时期都充当了传统守护者的角色,只是随着历史的发展,它所扮演的角色也不断有所变换。这是因为他们所要保守和所能保守的东西变得越来越少,同时在精神上却又越来越被放大,有时甚至显得很玄妙。在洋务运动时期,保守主义者几乎排斥一切西方文化,要保守住整个的中国传统不变。到了维新变法时期,"师夷长技"已不成问题,保守主义者乃要求师夷当止于工艺,中国传统政教制度不可变。到了排满革命高潮时期,否定传统政教制度又几乎不成问题,保守主义者乃呼吁要珍惜和保存"国粹",而"国粹"到底是什么东     

江浙梅树蚧虫寄生蜂及三种中国新记录(膜翅目:小蜂总科)

从江浙梅区所采10种梅树蚧虫中育得寄生蜂4科18属25种,其中3种为中国新记录,并有10项寄主新记录,文中登录了各种寄生蜂的名称、寄主和采地,对3个中国新记录种——长角短索蚜小蜂Archenomus longicornis(Nik),蜡蚧阔柄跳小蜂Metaphycus tamakatakaigara Tachikawa和网室优盾金小蜂Eunotus arelatus(Ratzeburg)作了记述,并附特征图。     

场域理论视角下返乡精英帮扶乡村产业振兴的实践逻辑——以北京市延庆区K村为例

产业振兴是乡村振兴的重中之重,也是解决"三农"问题的前提。返乡精英能够有效对接外部市场并承接政府资源,在乡村产业振兴实践中处于特殊的地位。基于布尔迪厄的场域理论,从场域、资本和惯习的视角切入,以北京市延庆区K村为例,阐释返乡精英在乡村产业振兴过程中所发挥的精英帮扶作用,并剖析其形成机制、实践逻辑与影响模式。研究发现,在乡村振兴场域中,返乡精英利用政治势能、资本支持,通过对乡村内生惯习的激活,加强了基层治理水平,发挥了政群纽带、合作桥梁的作用,最终实现了对当地乡村产业振兴的推动。因此,实现乡村产业振兴,应重视返乡精英的正向影响,积极引导返乡精英将资源优势转化为治理效能,构建起返乡精英帮扶乡村产业的良性机制。