Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China

Global climate change may impact grain production as atmospheric conditions and water supply change, particularly intensive cropping, such as double wheat-maize systems. The effects of climate change on grain production of a winter wheat-summer maize cropping system were investigated, corresponding to the temperature rising 2 and 5 °C, precipitation increasing and decreasing by 15% and 30%, and atmospheric CO₂ enriching to 500 and 700 ppmv. The study focused on two typical counties in the Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) Plain (covering most of the North China Plain), Botou in the north and Huaiyuan in the south, considering irrigated and rain-fed conditions, respectively. Climate change scenarios, derived from available ensemble outputs from general circulation models and the historical trend from 1996 to 2004, were used as atmospheric forcing to a bio-geo-physically process-based dynamic crop model, Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP). VIP simulates full coupling between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, and other energy and water transfer processes. The projected crop yields are significantly different from the baseline yield, with the minimum, mean (±standardized deviation, SD) and maximum changes being −46%, −10.3 ± 20.3%, and 49%, respectively. The overall yield reduction of −18.5 ± 22.8% for a 5 °C increase is significantly greater than −2.3 ± 13.2% for a 2 °C increase. The negative effect of temperature rise on crop yield is partially mitigated by CO₂ fertilization. The response of a C3 crop (wheat) to the temperature rise is significantly more sensitive to CO₂ fertilization and less negative than the response of C4 (maize), implying a challenge to the present double wheat-maize systems. Increased precipitation significantly mitigated the loss and increased the projected gain of crop yield. Conversely, decreased precipitation significantly exacerbated the loss and reduced the projected gain of crop yield. Irrigation helps to mitigate the decreased crop yield, but CO₂ enrichment blurs the role of irrigation. The crops in the wetter southern 3H Plain (Huaiyuan) are significantly more sensitive to climate change than crops in the drier north (Botou). Thus CO₂ fertilization effects might be greater under drier conditions. The study provides suggestions for climate change adaptation and sound water resources management in the 3H Plain.     

A preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland

The spatial and temporal impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirements and yield for sugarcane grown in Swaziland have been assessed, by combining the outputs from a general circulation model (HadCM3), a sugarcane crop growth model and a GIS. The CANEGRO model (embedded with the DSSAT program) was used to simulate the baseline and future cane net annual irrigation water requirements (IR_net) and yield (t ha⁻¹) using a reference site and selected emissions scenario (SRES A2 and B2) for the 2050s (including CO₂-fertilisation effects). The simulated baseline yields were validated against field data from 1980 to 1997. An aridity index was defined and used to correlate agroclimate variability against irrigation need to estimate the baseline and future irrigation water demand (volumetric). To produce a unit weight of sucrose equivalent to current optimum levels of production, future irrigation needs were predicted to increase by 20-22%. With CO₂-fertilisation, the impacts of climate change are offset by higher crop yields, such that IR_net is predicted to increase by 9%. The study showed that with climate change, the current peak capacity of existing irrigation schemes could fail to meet the predicted increases in irrigation demand in nearly 50% of years assuming unconstrained water availability.     

气候变化条件下旱作玉米用水效率与单产变化趋势分析

以渭北旱塬合阳和长武2个试验站点为研究区域,通过多年的玉米田间试验数据评估CERES-Maize模型的适用性,再利用区域气候模式Reg CM4.0输出的气象数据对2050年前玉米单产及生产水足迹进行预测。结果表明:CERES-Maize模型可以很好地模拟雨养玉米产量和物候期,多数年份二者的绝对相对误差(Absolute relative error,ARE)在10%以内,CERES-Maize模型在渭北旱塬旱作农业区有很好的适用性。应用CERES-Maize模型模拟玉米生产水足迹,较传统水足迹计算方法得到的结果更为精确可靠。在RCP2.6气候情景下,随着温度升高和生育期有效降水量的增加,玉米产量呈上升趋势;在RCP8.5气候情景下,随着温度升高和生育期有效降水的减少,玉米产量呈下降趋势。气温上升幅度过大对玉米单产有明显的负面影响,降水与玉米用水效率呈正相关。为有效应对气候变化对旱作作物产量造成的负面影响,应采取减少温室气体排放量、增强土壤蓄水保墒能力、发展集雨补灌、筛选和培育节水抗旱新品种等措施。     

Sensitivity of groundwater recharge under irrigated agriculture to changes in climate, CO2 concentrations and canopy structure

Estimating groundwater recharge in response to increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change is critical for future management of agricultural water resources in arid or semi-arid regions. Based on climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study quantified groundwater recharge under irrigated agriculture in response to variations of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (550 and 970 ppm) and average daily temperature (+1.1 and +6.4 °C compared to current conditions). HYDRUS 1D, a model used to simulate water movement in unsaturated, partially saturated, or fully saturated porous media, was used to simulate the impact of climate change on vadose zone hydrologic processes and groundwater recharge for three typical crop sites (alfalfa, almonds and tomatoes) in the San Joaquin watershed in California. Plant growth with the consideration of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration was simulated using the heat unit theory. A modified version of the Penman-Monteith equation was used to account for the effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Irrigation amount and timing was based on crop potential evapotranspiration. The results of this study suggest that increases in atmospheric CO₂ and average daily temperature may have significant effects on groundwater recharge. Increasing temperature caused a temporal shift in plant growth patterns and redistributed evapotranspiration and irrigation water use earlier in the growing season resulting in a decrease in groundwater recharge under alfalfa and almonds and an increase under tomatoes. Elevating atmospheric CO₂ concentrations generally decreased groundwater recharge for all crops due to decreased evapotranspiration resulting in decreased irrigation water use. Increasing average daily temperature by 1.1 and 6.4 °C and atmospheric CO₂ concentration to 550 and 970 ppm led to a decrease in cumulative groundwater recharge for most scenarios. Overall, the results indicate that groundwater recharge may be very sensitive to potential future climate changes.     

Bio-economic assessment of climate change impacts on managed grassland production

In order to analyze impacts of climate change on managed grassland systems and to project potential changes in farmers’ management practices in response to altered climatic conditions, we develop a modeling approach that integrates a process-based grassland model into an economic model. This economic model describes farmers’ decision making with respect to input use and accounts for production levels, production risks, fodder quality as determined by the grassland composition, and environmental protection. We apply the bio-economic model to an intensively managed grassland system with a geographic focus on the Swiss Plateau. Our results show an increase of future production risks in grassland production due to climate change. Projected changes in yield levels, grassland composition and optimal responses of risk-averse farmers are dependent on the assumptions concerning cross-compliance obligations, forage quality and particularly on the assumed effect of elevated CO₂ concentrations: Grasslands yields will increase under future climatic conditions only if the benefits of rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are taken into account. Without this potential benefit, climate change will lead to less intensive input use and lower grassland yields.     

Climate change affects farm nitrogen loss – A Swiss case study with a dynamic farm model

The response of arable crops and grasslands to climatic changes and increasing CO₂ concentration has implications for the operation of farms, in particular for the management of resources such as nitrogen. A simple dynamic farm model (Stella^© model ‘CH-Farm’) was used to analyze the shift in the ratio of N lost via leaching, denitrification and volatilization to N exported with products from dairy or arable production (here defined as relative N loss). The model was run for two types of farms typical of Swiss conditions. Growth parameters for two sequentially grown crops (winter wheat and maize) and grass were determined with the process-oriented models Pasture Simulation Model (PaSim) and CropSyst, respectively. CH-Farm was forced with two assumptions about the transient change in temperature and precipitation, and with or without CO₂ effects. Relative N loss for the baseline was around 1.33 for the dairy-type farm and around 1.05 for the arable-type farm and increased progressively over the 100-year simulation period, with the largest shift in response to the dry/hot scenario. Soil N pools decreased with all scenarios, but at different rates. CO₂ fertilization alleviated the effect of climate change due to increased productivity and N fixation in plants. Adjustment of the growth parameters to progressively increasing temperatures reduced the difference between farm types and positively affected relative N losses mainly through increased productivity and reduced fallow periods between crops. The results suggest that the impact of climate change on relative farm-level N loss depends on physiological adjustments to climatic scenarios, whereas the distribution of land between dairy and arable crop production is less important, and that simple cultivar adjustments can help to mitigate negative effects of climate change on farm-level N use.     

气候变化对区域农业灌溉用水影响分析

从气候变化对区域灌溉用水影响机理入手,利用区域经济发展、灌溉用水、种植结构等因素之间动态反馈关系,采用系统动力学建模方法,构建了气候变化背景下灌溉用水响应模型,分析了未来不同气候情景下宝鸡峡灌区灌溉用水的变化过程。结果表明,随着未来气温升高趋势的增加,灌溉用水亦呈明显升高趋势,不同情景稍有差异,但差别不大,而不同作物间差异较大。以B1情景为例,温度升高1℃,灌区内灌溉净需水量约增加12050×104m3,毛需水量约增加20080×104m3,灌区内小麦单位面积约增加需水量28m3/亩;玉米约增加8m3/亩,这可能与冬小麦和夏玉米生育期的变化有关,应进一步加强研究。     

Designing crop technology for a future climate: An example using response surface methodology and the CERES-Wheat model

Future crop production will be adapted to climate change by implementing alternative management practices and developing new genotypes that are adapted to future climatic conditions. It is difficult to predict what new agronomic technologies will be necessary for crop production under future climatic conditions. The purpose of this work was to develop an approach useful in identifying crop technologies for future climatic conditions. As an example of the approach, we used response surface methodology (RSM) in connection with the CERES-Wheat model and the HADCM2 climate simulation model to identify optimal configurations of plant traits and management practices that maximize yield of winter wheat in high CO₂ environments. The simulations were conducted for three Nebraska locations differing in altitude and rainfall (Lincoln, Dickens and Alliance), which were considered representative of winter wheat growing areas in the central Great Plains. At all locations, the identified optimal winter wheat cultivar under high CO₂ conditions had a larger number of tillers, larger kernel size, fewer days to flower, grew faster and had more kernels m⁻² than the check cultivar under normal CO₂ conditions. In addition, optimal sowing dates were later and optimal plant densities were smaller than under normal conditions. We concluded that RSM used in conjunction with crop and climate simulation models was useful in understanding the complex relationship between wheat genotypes, climate and management practices.     

Regional crop modelling in Europe: The impact of climatic conditions and farm characteristics on maize yields

Impacts of climate variability and climate change on regional crop yields are commonly assessed using process-based crop models. These models, however, simulate potential and water limited yields, which do not always relate to observed yields. The latter are largely influenced by crop management, which varies by farm and region. Data on specific management strategies may be obtained at the field level, but at the regional level information about the diversity in management strategies is rarely available and difficult to be considered adequately in process-based crop models. Alternatively, understanding the factors influencing management may provide helpful information to improve simulations at the regional level.In this study, we aim to identify factors at the regional level that explain differences between observed and simulated yields. Observed yield data were provided by the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) and Eurostat. The Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS), based on the WOFOST model, was used to simulate potential and water limited maize yields in the EU15 (i.e., the old member states of the European Union). Differences between observed and simulated maize yields were analysed using regression models including: (i) climatic factors (temperature and precipitation), (ii) farm size, (iii) farm intensity, (iv) land use, (v) income and (vi) subsidies. We assumed that the highest yields observed in a region were close to the yield potential as determined by climate and considered the average regional yields as also influenced by management. Model performance was analysed with respect to spatial and temporal yield variability.Results indicate that for potential yield, the model performed unsatisfactory in southern regions, where high temperatures increased observed yields which was in contrast to model simulations. When considering management effects, we find that especially irrigation and the maize area explain much of the differences between observed and simulated yields across regions. Simulations of temporal yield variability also diverted from observed data of which about 80% could be explained by the climatic factors (35%) and farm characteristics (50%) considered in the analysis. However, effects of specific factors differed depending on the regions. Accordingly, we propose different groups of regions with factors related to management which should be considered to improve regional yield simulations with CGMS.     

Effects of rising atmospheric CO2 on crop evapotranspiration in a Mediterranean area

In the assessment of plant response to the climate changes, the effects of CO₂ increase in the atmosphere and the subsequent rise of temperatures must be taken into account for their effects on crop physiology. In Mediterranean areas, a decrease of water availability and a more frequent occurrence of drought periods are expected. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of elevated CO₂ concentration and high temperature on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and crop evapotranspiration (ETc) in the Mediterranean areas. The Penman-Monteith equation was used to simulate the future changes of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) by the recalibration of the canopy resistance parameter. Besides, crop coefficients (Kc) were adjusted according to the future climate trend. Then the modified empirical model (ETc = ETo × Kc) was applied providing an effective quantification of the climate change impact on water use of irrigated crops grown in Mediterranean areas. In the studied area, water use assessment was carried out for the period from 1961 to 2006 (measured data) and for a period from 2071 until 2100 (simulated data), showing a future climatic scenario. Water and irrigation use of crops will change as a function of climate changes, thermal needs of single crops and time of the year when they grow. Climate simulation model foresees the tendency for a significant increase of temperatures and a decrease of total year rainfall with a change of their distribution. The temperature increase and the concomitant expected rainfall decrease lead to a rise of year potential water deficit. About the autumn-spring crops, as wheat, a further increase of water deficit, is not expected. On the contrary, for spring-summer crops as tomato, a significant increase of water deficit and thus of irrigation need, is foreseen. Actually, for crops growing in that period of the year, the substantial rise of evapotranspiration demand cannot be compensated by crop cycle reduction and partial stomatal closure.     

Effects of elevated CO2 concentration,irrigation and nitrogenous fertilizer application on the growth and yield of spring wheat in semi-arid areas

In this paper, we discuss the effect of elevated CO₂ concentration, irrigation and nitrogenous fertilizer application on the growth and yield of spring wheat in semi-arid areas. A field experiment was conducted at the Dingxi Agricultural Experiment Station during 2000–2002. According to the experimental design, the CO₂ concentration increased to 14.5, 40 and 54.5 μmol mol⁻¹, respectively, by NH₄HCO₃ (involving CO₂) application, direct application of CO₂ gas and combination of fertilizer NH₄HCO₃ plus CO₂ application, which are equal to CO₂ concentration of the Earth's atmosphere in the next 5, 15 and 20 years. The fertilizer application was divided into three levels: application of NH₃NO₃ (250 kg h m⁻²), NH₄HCO₃ (500 kg h m⁻²) and no fertilizer. Irrigation was divided into two levels: with 90 mm irrigation in the growth period and without irrigation. They can be combined as eight treatments. Each treatment was replicated three times. The results showed that elevated CO₂ concentration owing to CO₂ application leads to remarkable increase in leaf area index (LAI) and shoot biomass, and also generates the higher value of leaf area duration (LAD) that can benefit the photosynthesis in the growth stage and yield increase in crop compared than the no CO₂ application treatment. When CO₂ concentration elevated by 14.5, 40 and 54.5 μmol mol⁻¹ with irrigation and fertilization, correspondingly, the grain yield increased by 6.3, 13.1 and 19.8%, respectively, whereas without irrigation and fertilization, the grain yield increased by only 4.2% when CO₂ concentration increased to 40 μmol mol⁻¹. Meanwhile, irrigation and fertilization can result in larger and deeper root system and have significantly positive influences on higher value of root/shoot (R/S) and water use efficiency. The grain yields in irrigation, irrigation plus NH₃NO₃ application and irrigation plus application of NH₄HCO₃ treatments are 73.4, 148.0 and 163.6% higher than that of no-irrigated and no-fertilized treatment, suggesting that both irrigation and fertilizer application contribute to remarkable increase of crop yield. In all treatments, the highest water use efficiency (WUE, 7.24 kg h m⁻² mm⁻¹) and grain yield (3286 kg h m⁻²) consistently occurred in the treatment with 90 mm irrigation plus fertilizer NH₄HCO₃ and elevated CO₂ concentration (54.5 μmol mol⁻¹), suggesting that this combination has an integrated beneficial effect on improving WUE and grain yield of spring wheat. These results may offer help to maintain and increase the crop yields in semi-arid areas.     

农田不同培肥措施的节水增产试验研究

针对华北平原水资源严重不足的实际情况 ,开展了不同培肥模式的节水增产试验研究 ,结果表明 ,玉米秸、麦秸全部还田与单独麦秸还田比较 ,全生育期冬小麦夏玉米共增产 4 77.72 kg/hm2 ,增产幅度为3.6 2 %。耗水量则是冬小麦季全还耗水量高于麦还 ,夏玉米季的耗水量全还低于麦还 ,二季总耗水量则表现为全还大于麦还 ,而且水分利用效率也是全还大于麦还。综合各种施氮水平与还田模式 ,适合当地的最佳培肥模式为 :全还 + N2 +有机肥 ,冬小麦夏玉米全生育期耗水总量为 778.34 mm,水分利用效率为 1 9.0 0kg/( hm2· mm)。     

The impact of climate change on maize yields in the United States and China

This study analyzes the impacts of climate change on maize yields using an econometric model that incorporates climate, economic, and technology variables. The major finding is climate change will not universally cause negative impacts of maize yields in the United States and China. The results of a simulation of climate change on maize yields over the period 2008-2030 show that a combination of changes in temperature and precipitation can either bring positive or negative effects on maize yields. Furthermore, variation in regional climatic and economic conditions makes the impacts of climatic change on maize yields substantially different in different regions. In this research, the impacts of climate change on maize yields are not simply examined by climate factors. Economic and technology adaptation effects on maize yields are also incorporated. Thus, even with significant changes in climate conditions that alter the maize crop’s growing environment and affect crop yields, a decrease in maize supply due to a decrease in maize yields would lead to an increase in the maize price, which in turn would induce farmers to add more investments in production inputs to raise yields. Thus, the decrease in actual yields may not be as dramatic as predicted in only climate factor considered cases. In this research, findings gained from the study can be used for early-staged policymaking decisions and advanced problem prevention programs. To ensure the continuous increase in maize yields in the future, further studies and research, as well as efficient environmental policies and actions are required.     

Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates

Developing crop cultivars with novel traits could help agriculture adapt to climate change. As introducing new traits into crops is expensive and time consuming, it is helpful to develop methods which can test whether a potential new plant trait increases or maintains production in future climates. We used a crop-soil simulation model (APSIM-Nwheat) to test whether changes in physiological traits, related to early vigor and flowering time, would result in increased yield when compared to traditional cultivars of wheat grown at higher temperatures, elevated atmospheric CO₂ and lower rainfall in a Mediterranean climate. Early vigor was simulated by changing four different plant traits. The impact of each trait on grain yield varied with climate scenario and soil type. Higher specific leaf area had minimal effect on yield for the historical climate, but it could increase production in future warmer climates. Increased rooting depth generally had a positive impact on yield, while lower radiation use efficiency and earlier flowering tended to reduce yield. The interaction between these traits was generally positive, and our results indicate that early vigor may improve yield for a range of future climate scenarios. However, in the low rainfall regions, early vigor is unlikely to compensate for rainfall reductions of ?30%. Yield gains for early vigor are likely to be larger on sandy loam than on heavier clay soil.The simulation of cultivars differing in flowering time showed that in drier climates earlier flowering cultivars increase potential yield while in warming climates later cultivars increase yield.In conclusion, our analyses suggest that there is great potential for adapting wheat systems to climate change by introducing cultivars with new traits. Our results also show how simulation analyses can assist plant breeders in determining which traits could be important for crop production in future climates.     

Effects of elevated CO2 concentration on growth and water use efficiency of winter wheat under two soil water regimes

Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Kenong9204) was grown in open top chambers with either ambient or elevated CO₂ concentrations (358 ± 19 μmol mol⁻¹ or 712 ± 22 μmol mol⁻¹, respectively) in well-watered or drought conditions. Although elevated CO₂ did not significantly affect the height of the plants at harvest, it significantly increased the aboveground biomass by 10.1% and the root/shoot ratio by 16.0%. Elevated CO₂ also significantly increased the grain yield (GY) by 6.7% when well-watered and by 10.4% when drought stressed. Specifically, in the well-watered condition, this increase was due to a greater number of ears (8.7% more) and kernels (8.6). In the drought condition, it was only due to a greater number of spikes (17.1% more). In addition, elevated CO₂ also significantly increased the water use efficiency (WUE) of the plants by 9.9% when well-watered and by 13.8% under drought conditions, even though the evapotranspiration (ET) of the plants did not change significantly. Elevated CO₂ also significantly increased the root length in the top half of the soil profile by 35.4% when well-watered and by 44.7% under drought conditions. Finally, elevated CO₂ significantly increased the root water uptake by 52.9% when well-watered and by 10.1% under drought conditions. These results suggest that (1) future increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentration may have a significant effect on wheat production in arid and semiarid areas where wheat cultivation requires upland cropping or deficit irrigation; (2) wheat cultivars can be developed to have more tillers and kernels through selective breeding and field management; and (3) fertilizer and water management in topsoil will become increasingly important as atmospheric CO₂ concentration rises.     

Evaluating the Crop Water Stress Index and its correlation with latent heat and CO2 fluxes over winter wheat and maize in the North China plain

Plant water status is a key factor impacting crop growth and agricultural water management. Crop water stress may alter canopy temperature, the energy balance, transpiration, photosynthesis, canopy water use efficiency, and crop yield. The objective of this study was to calculate the Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI) from canopy temperature and energy balance measurements and evaluate the utility of CWSI to quantify water stress by comparing CWSI to latent heat and carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux measurements over canopies of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.). The experiment was conducted at the Yucheng Integrated Agricultural Experimental Station of the Chinese Academy of Sciences from 2003 to 2005. Latent heat and CO₂ fluxes (by eddy covariance), canopy and air temperature, relative humidity, net radiation, wind speed, and soil heat flux were averaged at half-hour intervals. Leaf area index and crop height were measured every 7 days. CWSI was calculated from measured canopy-air temperature differences using the Jackson method. Under high net radiation conditions (greater than 500 W m⁻²), calculated values of minimum canopy-air temperature differences were similar to previously published empirically determined non-water-stressed baselines. Valid measures of CWSI were only obtained when canopy closure minimized the influence of viewed soil on infrared canopy temperature measurements (leaf area index was greater than 2.5 m² m⁻²). Wheat and maize latent heat flux and canopy CO₂ flux generally decreased linearly with increases in CWSI when net radiation levels were greater than 300 W m⁻². The responses of latent heat flux and CO₂ flux to CWSI did not demonstrate a consistent relationship in wheat that would recommend it as a reliable water stress quantification tool. The responses of latent heat flux and CO₂ flux to CWSI were more consistent in maize, suggesting that CWSI could be useful in identifying and quantifying water stress conditions when net radiation was greater than 300 W m⁻². The results suggest that CWSI calculated by the Jackson method under varying solar radiation and wind speed conditions may be used for irrigation scheduling and agricultural water management of maize in irrigated agricultural regions, such as the North China Plain.     

水氮运筹对玉米产量及水氮利用效率的影响

[目的]确定适合豫北灌溉区玉米的高产高效和节水增效的水氮运筹模式.[方法]采用随机区组设计实施了为期3 a田间定位试验,试验设置3个灌水量:灌0水(A1),灌2水(A2)和灌3水(A3);2个氮肥运筹:B1:基肥(70％)+小喇叭口期(20％)+灌浆期(10％),B2:基肥(60％)+小喇叭口期(25％)+灌浆期(15...     

Simulation of yield decline as a result of water stress with a robust soil water balance model

The relative yield decline that is expected under specific levels of water stress at different moments in the growing period is estimated by integrating the FAO K_y approach [Doorenbos, J., Kassam, A.H., 1979. Yield response to water. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 33. Rome, Italy] in the soil water balance model BUDGET. The water stored in the root zone is determined in the soil water balance model on a daily basis by keeping track of incoming and outgoing water fluxes at its boundary. Given the simulated soil water content in the root zone, the corresponding crop water stress is determined. Subsequently, the yield decline is estimated with the K_y approach. In the K_y approach the relation between water stress in a particular growth stage and the corresponding expected yield is described by a linear function. To account for the effect of water stresses in the various growth stages, the multiplicative, seasonal and minimal approach are integrated in the model. To evaluate the model, the simulated yields for two crops under various levels of water stress in two different environments were compared with observed yields: winter wheat under three different water application levels in the North of Tunisia, and maize in three different farmers’ fields in different years in the South West of Burkina Faso. Simulated crop yields agreed well with observed yields for both locations using the multiplicative approach. The correlation value (R²) between observed and simulated yields ranged from 0.87 to 0.94 with very high modeling efficiencies. The root mean square error values are relatively small and ranged between 7 and 9%. The minimal and seasonal approaches performed significantly less accurately in both of the study areas. Estimation of yields on basis of relative transpiration performed significantly better than estimations on basis of relative evapotranspiration in Burkina Faso. A sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust and that good estimates can be obtained in both regions even by using indicative values for the required crop and soil parameters. The minimal input requirement, the robustness of the model and its ability to describe the effect on seasonal yield of water stress occurring at particular moments in the growing period, make the model very useful for the design of deficit irrigation strategies. BUDGET is public domain software and hence freely available. An installation disk and manual can be downloaded from the web.     

Integrated management of irrigation water and fertilizers for wheat crop using field experiments and simulation modeling

The reported study aimed at developing an integrated management strategy for irrigation water and fertilizers in case of wheat crop in a sub-tropical sub-humid region. Field experiments were conducted on wheat crop (cultivar Sonalika) during the years 2002–2003, 2003–2004 and 2004–2005. Each experiment included four fertilizer treatments and three irrigation treatments during the wheat growth period. During the experiment, the irrigation treatments considered were I₁ = 10% maximum allowable depletion (MAD) of available soil water (ASW); I₂ = 40% MAD of ASW; I₃ = 60% MAD of ASW. The fertilizer treatments considered in the experiments were F₁ = control treatment with N:P₂O₅:K₂O as 0:0:0 kg ha⁻¹, F₂ = fertilizer application of N:P₂O₅:K₂O as 80:40:40 kg ha⁻¹; F₃ = fertilizer application of N:P₂O₅:K₂O as 120:60:60 kg ha⁻¹ and F₄ = fertilizer application of N:P₂O₅:K₂O as 160:80:80 kg ha⁻¹. In this study CERES-wheat crop growth model of the DSSAT v4.0 was used to simulate the growth, development and yield of wheat crop using soil, daily weather and management inputs, to aid farmers and decision makers in developing strategies for effective management of inputs. The results of the investigation revealed that magnitudes of grain yield, straw yield and maximum LAI of wheat crop were higher in low volume high frequency irrigation (I₁) than the high volume low frequency irrigation (I₃). The grain yield, straw yield and maximum LAI increased with increase in fertilization rate for the wheat crop. The results also revealed that increase in level of fertilization increased water use efficiency (WUE) considerably. However, WUE of the I₂ irrigation schedule was comparatively higher than the I₁ and I₃ irrigation schedules due to higher grain yield per unit use of water. Therefore, irrigation schedule with 40% maximum allowable depletion of available soil water (I₂) could safely be maintained during the non-critical stages to save water without sacrificing the crop yield. Increase in level of fertilization increases the WUE but it will cause environmental problem beyond certain limit. The calibrated CERES-wheat model could predict the grain yield, straw yield and maximum LAI of wheat crop with considerable accuracy and therefore can be recommended for decision-making in similar regions.     

Soil texture, climate and management effects on plant growth, grain yield and water use by rainfed maize–wheat cropping system: Field and simulation study

In sub-mountain tract of Punjab state of India, maize (Zea mays, L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crops are grown as rainfed having low crop and water productivity. To enhance that, proper understanding of the factors (soil type, climate, management practices and their interactions) affecting it is a pre-requisite. The present study aims to assess the effects of tillage, date of sowing, and irrigation practices on the rainfed maize–wheat cropping system involving combined approach of field study and simulation. Field experiments comprising 18 treatments (three dates of sowing as main, three tillage systems as subplot and two irrigation regimes as the sub-subplot) were conducted for two years (2004–2006) and simulations were made for 15 years using CropSyst model. Field and simulated results showed that grain yields of maize and wheat crops were more in early July planted maize and early November planted wheat on silt loam soil. Different statistical parameters (root mean square error, coefficient of residual mass, model efficiency, coefficient of correlation and paired t-test) indicated that CropSyst model did fair job to simulate biomass production and grain yield for maize–wheat cropping system under varying soil texture, date of planting and irrigation regimes.