Control of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Argentina

A major epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease affected Argentina during 2001. The epidemic was controlled by mass-vaccination of the national herd and movement restrictions. The median herd disease reproduction ratio (R_H) decreased significantly from 2.4 (before the epidemic was officially recognized) to 1.2 during the mass-vaccination campaign and <1 following the mass-vaccination campaign. The largest distance between two outbreaks was similar during (1905 km) and after (1890 km) the mass-vaccination. However, after mass-vaccination was completed, the proportion of herd outbreaks clustered decreased from 70.4% to 66.8%, respectively. Although a combination of vaccination and livestock-movement restrictions was effective in controlling the epidemic, 112 herd outbreaks occurred up to 6 months after the end of the mass-vaccination campaign. Mass-vaccination and movement restrictions might be an effective strategy to control FMD; however, the time taken to end large, national epidemics might be >1 year.     

Bartonella spp. associated with rodents in an urban protected area,Buenos Aires (Argentina)

At least 15 of the 30 Bartonella species are involved in human pathologies, and several of them are associated with rodents and their fleas. The aims of this study were detect and molecularly characterize the Bartonella infections in rodents from an urban protected area of ​Buenos Aires City (Argentina). A total of 186 rodents were captured and identified. For PCR of the 16S rRNA fragment, 23.7 % of the samples tested positive, and two groups (GrA and GrB) were identified. Likewise, the comparison between the sequences obtained for the gltA gene determined the presence of three genotypes, closely related to Bartonella spp. detected in sigmodontine rodents and their fleas in the Americas, which form a well-separated clade. The high prevalence of Bartonella in rodents from an urban protected area of ​Buenos Aires city is relevant from a public health perspective.     

Experimental studies with foot-and-mouth disease virus type Asia-1, responsible for the 2005 epidemic in China

This study was carried out to investigate the biological characteristics of the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus strain Asia-1 China/2005, which is responsible for the 2005 epidemic in China. The result showed that this strain is not host restricted, and could not only cause FMD in cattle and sheep but also in pigs by either inoculation or direct contact.     

Spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Pakistan estimated using imperfect data

We estimated the spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Pakistan; we used a probability co-kriging model and the number of FMD outbreaks reported between 1996 and 2000 by Pakistan to the Office International des Epizooties. We used a k-Bessel model and small-ruminant and human densities as surrogate covariates for the population at risk and for livestock markets and movements, respectively. Compared to no or only one covariate, the co-kriging model with both densities provided the best fit to independently obtained data on the spatial distribution of virus isolations (P = 0.57). The estimated probability of an FMD outbreak per 25 km² cell ranged from 0.017 to 0.812, with the maximum relative probability of 47.8 (0.812/0.017). Areas with the highest relative probability of having an FMD outbreak were located in the Punjab region; this is a major animal-production area located along a traditional international animal-trade route.     

The role of spatial mixing in the spread of foot-and-mouth disease

A model of epidemic dispersal (based on the assumption that susceptible cattle were homogeneously mixed over space, or non-spatial model) was compared to a partially spatially explicit and discrete model (the spatial model), which was composed of differential equations and used geo-coded data (Euclidean distances between county centroids). While the spatial model accounted for intra- and inter-county epidemic spread, the non-spatial model did not assess regional differences. A geo-coded dataset that resembled conditions favouring homogeneous mixing assumptions (based on the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease epidemic), was used for testing. Significant differences between models were observed in the average transmission rate between farms, both before and after a control policy (animal movement ban) was imposed. They also differed in terms of daily number of infected farms: the non-spatial model revealed a single epidemic peak (at, approximately, 25 epidemic days); while the spatial model revealed two epidemic peaks (at, approximately, 12 and 28 days, respectively). While the spatial model fitted well with the observed cumulative number of infected farms, the non-spatial model did not (P<0.01). In addition, the spatial model: (a) indicated an early intra-county reproductive number R of approximately 87 (falling to <1 within 25 days), and an inter-county R<1; (b) predicted that, if animal movement restrictions had begun 3 days before/after the estimated initiation of such policy, cases would have decreased/increased by 23 or 26%, respectively. Spatial factors (such as inter-farm distance and coverage of vaccination campaigns, absent in non-spatial models) may explain why partially explicit spatial models describe epidemic spread more accurately than non-spatial models even at early epidemic phases. Integration of geo-coded data into mathematical models is recommended.     

Use of the scan statistic on disaggregated province-based data: foot-and-mouth disease in Iran

The spatial scan statistic was applied to density-smoothed data that approximated the spatial distribution within the area and reduced the potential bias produced when location data have been aggregated for large areas. The method is illustrated, using data on the location of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Iran. Data examined were 4477 FMD outbreaks reported on a per province basis between June 1996 and September 2003. A kernel density of the outbreak locations was estimated, using a fixed radius and the centroid of each province as the designated location of all cases reported for the province. The radius that produced a density map with the highest correlation with expert opinion was 4° (latitude/longitude). Livestock density was used as a proxy for the underlying population at risk of acquiring FMD. Livestock and outbreak density maps were overlain to obtain the number of outbreaks and livestock in each of 15,599 cells covering the mapped surface of the country. A spatial scan statistic was applied to the density-smoothed data assuming that the outbreaks had a Poisson distribution. Results were compared with those obtained using a spatial scan statistic on provincially aggregated data. Application of the spatial scan statistic on the density-smoothed data allowed identification of clusters (P < 0.01) related more to the actual geographic distribution of cases (expert opinion) and of animals at risk, than to the distribution of the provinces. Significant clusters of FMD were identified that coincided with roads, neighboring countries, and high-density population areas, suggesting that the region may represent a route for cross-continent transmission of FMD.     

Predictions for the timing and use of culling or vaccination during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

First-fortnight incidence (FFI) is a modelling parameter that can be used to predict both the prevalence and duration of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic at regional and national levels. With an indication of how long an epidemic may last by the end of week two, it becomes possible to estimate whether vaccination would be economically viable from the start of an epidemic. Where FFI indicates that an epidemic is unlikely to last for as long as an export ban on agricultural produce, it may be inappropriate to implement a policy of 'vaccination to live'. Alternatively where FFI indicates that an epidemic will equal or exceed the ban length, then the benefits of vaccination should be considered at an early stage, during or after the first fortnight. Since blanket vaccination of the national or regional herds and flocks would be both costly and heighten the risk of producing carrier animals, targetting vaccination through risk assessment becomes useful.     

A decision-tree to optimise control measures during the early stage of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

A decision-tree was developed to support decision making on control measures during the first days after the declaration of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). The objective of the tree was to minimise direct costs and export losses of FMD epidemics under several scenarios based on livestock and herd density in the outbreak region, the possibility of airborne spread, and the time between first infection and first detection. The starting point of the tree was an epidemiological model based on a deterministic susceptible–infectious–recovered approach. The effect of four control strategies on FMD dynamics was modelled. In addition to the standard control strategy of stamping out and culling of high-risk contact herds, strategies involving ring culling within 1 km of an infected herd, ring-vaccination within 1 km of an infected herd, and ring-vaccination within 3 km of an infected herd were assessed. An economic model converted outbreak and control effects of farming and processing operations into estimates of direct costs and export losses. Ring-vaccination is the economically optimal control strategy for densely populated livestock areas whereas ring culling is the economically optimal control strategy for sparsely populated livestock areas.     

A survey to investigate movements off sheep and cattle farms in New Zealand,with reference to the potential transmission of foot-and-mouth disease

AIM: To quantify the numbers and extent of movements off sheep and cattle farms in New Zealand, in order to construct more realistic simulation models to investigate how infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) might spread.

METHODS: Farmers from 500 randomly selected farms, comprising 100 from each of the following sectors, viz beef, dairy, grazing/dairy heifer rearing, sheep, and mixed sheep and beef, were asked to fill in diaries in which they recorded the movements of all animals, products, people, vehicles and equipment coming on to or leaving their farms during two separate 3-week periods, representing relatively ‘busy’ and ‘quiet’ times of the year with respect to livestock movements. Where possible, the destination of each movement was identified and geo-coded, to allow the distance travelled to be calculated. Each movement was then classified according to the risk of transfer of FMD virus (FMDV), should the disease have been present on the study farm at the time of the movement. The data were then analysed to establish movement frequencies and distributions of distances travelled, by the different pastoral livestock sectors.

RESULTS: Two hundred and seventeen farmers returned one or more diaries. One hundred and ninety-three farmers completed a Busy-period diary, recording a total of 12,052 movements off their farms, a crude average of 62.4 per 3-week period, or 2.97 per day. Of these, 4.0% involved the transport of livestock, equating to 0.12 livestock consignments per day. In contrast, 186 Quiet-period diaries were returned, recording a total of 10,885 movements off, representing a crude average of 58.5 during the 3-week period, or 2.78 per day. Of these, 2.1% involved livestock, equating to 0.06 livestock consignments per day. The mean and median distances travelled during the Busy periods were 30.9 km and 13.1 km, respectively (range 0–1,167 km). In comparison, the mean and median distances travelled during Quiet periods were 41.3 and 14 km, respectively (range 0.4–1,203 km).

CONCLUSIONS: People, vehicles, livestock and other items can travel off pastoral livestock farms in New Zealand to other farms either directly or via saleyards over extensive distances. This has implications for the potential spread of infectious diseases such as FMD. Movement parameters intended for use in the InterSpread Plus inter-farm simulation model of FMD were established, which will facilitate the prediction of likely spread and efficacy of controls in the unlikely event of a real-life outbreak.     

Simulation of foot-and-mouth disease spread within an integrated livestock system in Texas, USA

We used a simulation study to assess the impact of an incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus on the livestock industries in an 8-county area of the Panhandle region of Texas, USA. The study was conducted in a high-density livestock area, with an estimated number of cattle on-feed of approximately 1.8 million. We modified an existing stochastic, spatial simulation model to simulate 64 scenarios for planning and decision-making. Our scenarios simulated four different herd types for the index herd (company feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef, backyard) and variations in three mitigation strategies (time-of-detection, vaccine availability, and surveillance during disease control). Under our assumptions about availability of resources to manage an outbreak, median epidemic lengths in the scenarios with commercial feedlot, backgrounder feedlot, large beef and backyard index herd types ranged from 28 to 52, 19 to 39, 18 to 32, and 18 to 36 days, respectively, and the average number of herds depopulated ranged from 4 to 101, 2 to 29, 1 to 15 and 1 to 18, respectively. Early detection of FMD in the index herd had the largest impact on reducing (13–21 days) the length of epidemics and the number of herds (5–34) depopulated. Although most predicted epidemics lasted only 1–2 months, and <100 herds needed to be depopulated, large outbreaks lasting 8–9 months with up to 230 herds depopulated might occur.     

Risk factors for herdsman-reported foot-and-mouth disease in the Adamawa Province of Cameroon

We analysed responses from 147 Fulani herdsmen to a questionnaire about cattle herd-level risk factors for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the previous year. The study used a cross-sectional design with a stratified, two-stage random sample of cattle herds in the Adamawa Province of Cameroon. The questionnaire was pre-tested at a local cattle market before a final version was translated into Foulfoulde (the local Fulani dialect). Variables were screened using a univariable analysis and logistic multiple-regression models were developed in a forward-selection process.

Fifty-eight percent (50–65; 90% CIs) of herdsmen reported FMD in their herd in the previous 12 months. Important risk factors for FMD in the previous 12 months included going on transhumance (OR = 2.6), buying cattle from markets (OR = 2.2), mixing of herds at watering points (OR = 2.4), feeding cotton-seed cake (OR = 3.3), buffalo near the herd (OR = 2.2) and administrative division. For the subset of herds that went on transhumance, coming in contact with an FMDV-diseased herd while on transhumance was the strongest factor (OR = 16).     

Factors associated with infection by Campylobacter fetus in beef herds in the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina

Campylobacter fetus is a major venereal pathogen of cattle that is considered to be widespread among the livestock population of Argentina. The disease accounts for a 10% reduction in the weaning rate of Argentine infected herds and annual losses of $165 million. A case-control, questionnaire-based study was developed with the objective of quantifying the association between C. fetus infection and demographic, husbandry, and sanitary factors in 196 herds located in the province of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Abortions observed in the herd (OR=3.08, 95% CI=1.52, 6.23), and trespassing of bulls from neighboring herds (OR=2.03, 95% CI=0.98, 4.20), were positively associated with the risk of finding C. fetus-infected bulls, whereas buying bulls was a protective factor for the disease (OR=0.53, 95% CI=0.26, 1.08). Results presented here will help to develop and implement actions aimed at preventing the spread and reducing the incidence of C. fetus infection in the beef cattle population of Argentina.     

Risk factors associated with Tritrichomonas foetus infection in beef herds in the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina

Bovine trichomonosis (BT) is a contagious disease, characterized by reproductive failure, embryonic losses, infertility, and abortions, which directly impacts the reproductive performance of cattle. In this cross-sectional questionnaire-based study, 56 veterinarians provided information on the geographic location and on the demographic, husbandry, and sanitary characteristics of 173 beef herds located in 26 (21%) counties of the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Herds rearing beef cattle (OR=2.5, 95% CI=1.0, 6.3), with low pregnancy rate in cows (相似文献   

RT-PCR evaluation for identification and sequence analysis of foot-and-mouth disease serotype O from 2006 to 2007 in Punjab, Pakistan

FMD clinically positive 250 tissue samples (mouth and hoof epithelium and vesicle swabs, tongue tissue) and 175 secretion samples (milk, saliva, serum, plasma) were evaluated by RT-PCR for the diagnosis of FMD with different pair of universal and serotype-specific primers from 2006 to 2007 in Punjab, Pakistan. Universal primer pair P1/P2 from VP1 gene detected FMD in 182 out of 250 (72.8%) tissues and 92 out of 175 (52.6%) secretion samples, while universal primer 1F/1R from 5′UTR region detected FMD in 218 out of 250 (87.2%) tissues and 142 out of 175 (81.1%) secretion samples. 1F/1R proved better than the P1/P2 primer pair for primary diagnosis of FMD, direct from the clinical positive samples. Direct sequencing of the universal primer pair P1/P2 revealed that O serotype of FMD was circulating in this region. O serotype of FMD was detected with O-1C(ARS4)/PNK 61, AU(O)/AU(rev), AU(O)/PNK61 primer pairs, these primer pairs also compared with each other. AU(O)/AU(rev) and AU(O)/PNK61 detected O serotype of FMD in 88.9% tissue and swab (mouth and hoof vesicle swabs) samples and 71.9% different secretion (milk, saliva, serum, plasma) samples, while O-1C(ARS4)/PNK 61 detected 48.1% tissue and swab (mouth and hoof vesicle swabs) samples and 37.5% different secretion (milk, saliva, serum, plasma) samples. AU(O)/AU(rev), AU(O)/PNK61 primer pairs detected 40.8% more tissue and swab samples, while these pairs detected 34.4% more secretion samples. Cloning of PCR product of AU(O)/AU(rev) VP1 gene and sequencing for phylogenetic studies revealed that O serotype of FMD circulating in Punjab, Pakistan was genetically very diverse from the ‘O’ serotype in Middle East and Europe. The dendrogram showed that Pakistan ‘O’ serotype was very much similar genetically to its neighbor countries (Sri Lanka, India, Iran, Iraq, and China) and PanAsia 1 lineage which caused 2001-outbreak in UK and 1994-outbreak in Saudi Arabia, etc.     

A cross‐sectional study of intestinal parasitoses in dogs and children of the periurban area of La Plata (Buenos Aires,Argentina): Zoonotic importance and implications in public health

A cross‐sectional study was performed between school term dates 2014 and 2015 to diagnose intestinal parasites in dogs and children living with them. The socio‐environmental characteristics and hygiene practices of the children were also evaluated in terms of risk factors for parasitic infection of periurban neighbourhoods of La Plata (Buenos Aires, Argentina). Serial coproparasitological samples of 78 dogs and 211 children were analysed by means of concentration and flotation techniques. Socio‐environmental variables and hygiene practices of children were evaluated through semi‐structured questionnaires which were answered by every family. The study showed that 82.1% of dogs were parasitized. The specific richness was of 11 species; Ancylostoma caninum (69.2%), Uncinaria stenocephala (41.0%), Trichuris vulpis (28.2%) and Toxocara canis (21.8%) were the most prevalent. The study also revealed that 67.8% of children were positive. Also, 11 species were identified and the most prevalent were Blastocystis sp. (36.0%), Enterobius vermicularis (27.5%) and Giardia lamblia (21.3%). The risk for parasitosis was higher in 6‐year‐old children and older (OR = 1.9, 95% IC: 1.0–3.7) and in those who did not wash their hands or did it occasionally after playing with their pets (OR = 2.8, 95% IC: 1.4–5.5). Blastocystis sp. and Entamoeba coli infection risks were greater in children whose parents had a basic level of education (OR = 3.4, 95% IC: 1.3–8.7 and OR = 3.6, 95% IC: 0.8–15.9, respectively). In addition, the risk of infection for E. coli was higher in children who lived in floodable houses (OR = 4.4, 95% IC: 0.9–16.6). Likewise, the risk of infection for E. vermicularis was greater in children with onychophagia (OR = 1.6, 95% IC: 0.7–3.7) and in 6 year olds and older whose parents completed only primary studies (OR = 3.6, 95% IC: 1.4–9.1). The results obtained show the existence of a worrying epidemiological scenario that stresses the importance of zoonotic parasitosis as a serious problem of public health.     

Assessing the importance of Molecular and Genetic perspectives in Prophesying the KFD transmission risk provinces in the Western Ghats,Kerala, INDIA in context with spatial distribution,Extensive genetic Diversity,and phylogeography

The deadly effects of KFD have been pointed in southern India; however, the infecting regions have been getting larger in recent epochs. People who live or work in regions where KFDV infected tick vectors are present are severely prone to procuring the infection. Being aware of tick vectors and infectious agents' geospatial location is vital to direct sustenance approaches to prevent and manage such infectious diseases as KFD. The present investigation has focussed on the spatial distribution, Extensive genetic Diversity, and phylogeography to forecast the probable KFD disease risk provinces in the Western Ghats. The statistical analysis for diversity indices and community comparison has been performed by using SPSS version 24.0.0 and R software version 3.4.2. The nucleotide sequences of the respective ticks and KFDV were retrieved from NCBI. The first strand of this investigation revealed that, around the world, the Indian province was found to exhibit a maximum range of diversity for tick vectors. The next strands prophesied the KFD transmission risk areas in the Western Ghats region, India, with computational spatial analysis and phylogeography. The final strand exposed the genetic diversity of the KFD virus and the tick vectors in terms of their spatial distribution worldwide.     

Effectiveness of movement-prevention regulations to reduce the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in The Netherlands

After the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in 2001 the Dutch government implemented movement-prevention regulations to reduce the number of contacts between farms and consequently the risk of spread of highly contagious animal infections in the future. We studied the efficacy of these regulations by comparing registered cattle-movement data from 2000 to those from 2002. We also used the spatial and stochastic simulation model InterFMD to evaluate the consequences of the observed alterations in cattle-contact structure on the spread and control of a FMD epidemic.

There was a significant decrease in the number of cattle movements “for live use”, no difference in the number of group movements “for live use” and a distinct change in the overall contact structure. The most important structure changes were a decrease in the number of group movements from dairy farms to cattle-collection centres (−44%), and an increase in the number of group movements from dairy farms to beef farms (111%).

Our simulations demonstrated that the implemented regulations result in a concentration of the FMD-affected area and therefore in a reduction in size of the epidemics. Based on the intended Dutch strategy to control future FMD outbreaks, the decrease in extreme epidemics (95th percentiles) went from 31 infected farms in an epidemic-length of 65 days to 8 infected farms in an epidemic-length of 53 days in sparsely populated areas. In densely populated areas this decrease went from 135 infected farms to 103, while the duration reduced from 88 days to 81.     

Environmental determinants of the spatial distribution of Angiostrongylus vasorum,Crenosoma vulpis and Eucoleus aerophilus in Hungary

Angiostrongylus vasorum, Crenosoma vulpis and Eucoleus aerophilus (syn. Capillaria aerophila) are the most important lungworm species infecting wild and domesticated canids in Europe. To investigate the spatial distribution of these parasites and the factors influencing their circulation in the fox populations, 937 red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) were tested for lungworm infection in Hungary. The prevalence of A. vasorum, C. vulpis and E. aerophilus infection was high (17.9, 24.6 and 61.7%). The distribution pattern of infection in foxes and the relationship of this pattern with landscape and climate was analyzed by geographic information system. Based on the analysis, the annual precipitation was the major determinant of the spatial distribution of A. vasorum and C. vulpis and E. aerophilus. Nevertheless, the mean annual temperature also influenced the distribution of A. vasorum and E. aerophilus. The positive relationship with annual precipitation and the negative relationship with mean annual temperature can be attributed to the sensitivity of larvae, eggs and intermediate hosts (snails and slugs) of lungworms for desiccation. Based on the highly clumped distribution of A. vasorum and C. vulpis, the indirect life cycle (larvae, slugs and snails) of these parasites seems to be particularly sensitive for environmental effects. The distribution of E. aerophilus was considerably less clumped indicating a lower sensitivity of the direct life cycle (eggs) of this parasite for environmental factors. Based on these results, lungworm infections in canids including dogs can be expected mainly in relatively wet and cool areas.     

Predictive spatial modelling of alternative control strategies for the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001

A spatial simulation model of foot-and-mouth disease was used in March and early April 2001 to evaluate alternative control policies for the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Control policies were those in operation from March 20, 2001, and comprised a ban on all animal movements from February 23, 2001, and a stamping-out policy. Each simulation commenced with the known population of infected farms on April 10, 2001, and ran for 200 days. For the control policy which best approximated that actually implemented from late March, the model predicted an epidemic of approximately 1800 to 1900 affected farms, and estimated that the epidemic would be eradicated between July and October 2001, with a low probability of continuing beyond October 2001. This policy included the slaughter-out of infected farms within 24 hours, slaughter of about 1.3 of the surrounding farms per infected farm within a further 48 hours, and minimal interfarm movements of susceptible animals. Delays in the slaughter of animals on infected farms beyond 24 hours after diagnosis slightly increased the epidemic size, and failure to achieve pre-emptive slaughter on an adequate number of at-risk farms substantially increased the expected size of the epidemic. Vaccination of up to three of the most outbreak-dense areas carried out in conjunction with the adopted control policy reduced the predicted size of the epidemic by less than 100 farms. Vaccination of buffer zones (designed to apply available vaccine and manpower as effectively as possible) carried out in place of the adopted control policy allowed the disease to spread out of control, producing an epidemic involving over 6000 farms by October 2001, with no prospect of immediate eradication.