淮河流域气候变化及其对农业的影响

对安徽省淮河流域地区近百年来的温度、降水变化特征、变化趋势进行了分析,同时评估了气候变化对该区种植制度、气候生产潜力、农作物产量的影响,分析了气候变化与农业气候灾害之间的关系,对农业气候灾害损失进行了评估.     

世界棉花主产国近50年气候变化特征的分析

根据世界4个棉花主产国(区)美国、印度、巴基斯坦和前苏联中亚国家棉花分布及种植概况,选取相应的代表气象站,对各产棉国或其主要棉区1951～2000年的年平均气温、年降水量进行年代际和近10年气候变化的分析.以期对新疆科学、合理地布局棉花生产区和指导棉花种植生产提供一定的参考.分析结果表明:(1)年平均气温世界4个主产棉国(区)均表现出1990年代最高,1960年代是一个冷期;(2)1990年代印度棉区、美国东部棉区降水正常偏多,而巴基斯坦棉区和美国西部棉区则表现出降水显著偏少;(3)世界4个主产棉国(区)近10年年平均气温均有增暖的趋势,尤其1998年以后,这种趋势表现得更为显著;(4)各国和不同的植棉区近10年降水量的变化趋势表现不一致气候变化特征.     

Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent

Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.     

张家口地区气候特征及其对玉米生产的影响

基于张家口地区近50年(1965-2014)的气温和降水等气象资料,以及近34年(1981-2014)玉米产量资料,研究了张家口地区气候变化特征,并分析了气候变化对张家口玉米生产的影响。结果表明,近50年平均气温呈上升趋势,并在1986/1987年发生突变,降水量变化表现为年际间波动性大,存在稳定的9年左右变化周期。干旱具有明显变化特征,自气温发生突变后,夏季干旱的空间范围、持续时间和干旱程度均有所增加。各县玉米产量变化与气候要素变化具有很强的相关性,其中降水是影响产量变化的主要因素,玉米产量与降水量呈正相关关系。     

蔓越莓栽培历史、现状及发展趋势

介绍了蔓越莓果树的栽培意义、科、属、生长习性、用途、近400a来的发展历史、国内外发展现状（包括栽培面积、产量、产值、主要生产国、中国的生产现状）。并通过详细的数据和表格分析了我国各大城市蔓越莓果酱、蔓越莓罐头的市场需求量、消费额，以及在中国、亚洲、世界所占的市场份额，分析了世界及中国蔓越莓市场2001—2011年10a间的市场需求和发展趋势。     

Detection of a human influence on North American climate

Several indices of large-scale patterns of surface temperature variation were used to investigate climate change in North America over the 20th century. The observed variability of these indices was simulated well by a number of climate models. Comparison of index trends in observations and model simulations shows that North American temperature changes from 1950 to 1999 were unlikely to be due to natural climate variation alone. Observed trends over this period are consistent with simulations that include anthropogenic forcing from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. However, most of the observed warming from 1900 to 1949 was likely due to natural climate variation.     

河南省商丘市气候变化对玉米产量的影响

为探明气候变化对豫东玉米(Zea mays L.)产量的影响,以河南省商丘市为研究区域,根据1991～2010年河南省商丘市气候变化和玉米产量资料,利用数学统计与Thomthwaite memoriae模型,结合未来气候预测结果定量分析了气候变化对玉米产量的影响.结果表明,在全球气候变暖的背景下,玉米产量整体上呈波动上升趋势;主成分分析表明,气温、降水量与极端温度为影响玉米产量的主要气候因子,降水过多及低温对玉米生产不利.河南省商丘市“暖温型”气候有利于玉米生产力的提高,“冷干型”气候对玉米生产最为不利.     

Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere

Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14 degrees C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1 degrees C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.     

中国东北地区气候变暖的粮食生产适应及公众参与

为了认识和应对气候变化问题,本研究以1978—2008年东北地区小麦、玉米、稻谷的种植面积和单位面积产量数据为基础,分析了粮食作物播种面积比重、粮食作物种植结构的变化,应用线性回归分析方法对比分析气候变化对小麦、玉米、稻谷单产的影响差异。结果表明,在全球变暖驱动下,东北地区农业种植正在发生适应性变化,种植面积的扩大是人类主动应对气候变化的表现。研究发现,这种农业适应是公众自我实行而非政府有计划推行的。借助这个经验,笔者认为针对东北地区农业适应气候变化现象,提出了以公众参与气候变化为核心,作为公众的组成部分农业企业和农村居民应该更有计划地参与行列里面来,其中包括改造农业设施、推广新型品种,以更有效地应对和适应气候变化。     

娄底市农业气候资源与油菜产量的特征研究

利用娄底市常规气象观测资料和娄底市油菜产量统计资料,对1981～2010年娄底市油菜不同生育期的气温、降水量和日照时数进行主分量分析定义出气候综合指标,再通过Morlet小波变换对气候综合指标和油菜产量进行多时间尺度特征分析。结果表明:娄底市油菜不同生育期气候综合指标均由前两个主分量贡献产生,并存在明显的多时间尺度特征;娄底市油菜全生育期气候综合指标和油菜产量各自所反映的多时间尺度特征具有相似性。     

Simulation of recent southern hemisphere climate change

Recent observations indicate that climate change over the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by a strengthening of the circumpolar westerly flow that extends from the surface to the stratosphere. Here we demonstrate that the seasonality, structure, and amplitude of the observed climate trends are simulated in a state-of-the-art atmospheric model run with high vertical resolution that is forced solely by prescribed stratospheric ozone depletion. The results provide evidence that anthropogenic emissions of ozonedepleting gases have had a distinct impact on climate not only at stratospheric levels but at Earth's surface as well.     

Modelling of maize production in Croatia: present and future climate

Maize is one of the most important agricultural crops in Croatia, and was selected for research of the effect of climate warming on yields. The Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer model (DSSAT) is one of the most utilized crop-weather models in the world, and was used in this paper for the investigation of maize growth and production in the present and future climate. The impact of present climate on maize yield was studied using DSSAT 4.0 with meteorological data from the Zagreb-Maksimir station covering the period 1949-2004. Pedological, physiological and genetic data from a 1999 field maize experiment at the same location were added. The location is representative of the continental climate in central Croatia. The linear trends of model outputs and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test indicate that the beginning of silking has advanced significantly by 1·4 days/decade since the mid-1990s, and maturity by 4·5 days/decade. It also shows a decrease in biomass by 122 kg/ha and in maize yield by 216 kg/ha in 10 years.Estimates of the sensitivity of maize growth and yield in future climates were made by changing the initial weather and CO(2) conditions of the DSSAT 4.0 model according to the different climatic scenarios for Croatia at the end of the 21st century. Changed climate suggests increases in global solar radiation, minimal temperature and maximal temperature (×1·07, 2 and 4°C, respectively), but a decrease in the amount of precipitation (×0·92), compared with weather data from the period 1949-2004. The reduction of maize yield was caused by the increase in minimal and maximal temperature and the decrease in precipitation amount, related to the present climate, is 6, 12 and 3%, respectively. A doubling of CO(2) concentration stimulates leaf assimilation, but maize yield is only 1% higher, while global solar radiation growth by 7% increases evapotranspiration by 3%. Simultaneous application of all these climate changes suggested that the maize growth period would shorten by c. 1 month and maize yield would decrease by 9%, with the main reason for maize yield reduction in Croatia being due to extremely warm conditions in the future climate.     

Detecting climatic change signals: are there any "fingerprints"?

Projected changes in the Earth's climate can be driven from a combined set of forcing factors consisting of regionally heterogeneous anthropogenic and natural aerosols and land use changes, as well as global-scale influences from solar variability and transient increases in human-produced greenhouse gases. Thus, validation of climate model projections that are driven only by increases in greenhouse gases can be inconsistent when one attempts the validation by looking for a regional or time-evolving "fingerprint" of such projected changes in real climatic data. Until climate models are driven by time-evolving, combined, multiple, and heterogeneous forcing factors, the best global climatic change "fingerprint" will probably remain a many-decades average of hemi-spheric- to global-scale trends in surface air temperatures. Century-long global warming (or cooling) trends of 0.5 degrees C appear to have occurred infrequently over the past several thousand years-perhaps only once or twice a millennium, as proxy records suggest. This implies an 80 to 90 percent heuristic likelihood that the 20th-century 0.5 +/- 0.2 degrees C warming trend is not a wholly natural climatic fluctuation.     

气候变化与农业可持续发展对策研究

基于IPCC第四次评估报告和气象学家对我国气候变化的研究成果,从温度、降水、海平面上升等几方面分析了气候变化对我国农业生产的影响,提出了应对气候变化的具体措施,并根据气候变化趋势,制定出了防御对策,增强农业对气候变化的应对能力,趋利避害,实现可持续发展。     

Recent climate observations compared to projections

We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.     

近50年长春市农业气象条件变化特征分析

利用长春市1959～2008年的气温、降水、日照等气象资料,采用气候统计方法分析作物生长期内光资源、热量资源、水分条件及常见农业气象灾害的变化特征及气候趋势。结果表明：长春市作物生长期内日照时数呈下降趋势,但光照条件能满足作物生长需求;热量条件呈增加趋势,气温显著升高,初霜延后、终霜提前,无霜期延长,活动积温增加;水分条件呈下降趋势,降水减少,暖干化的趋势比较明显;洪涝、低温冷害、冰雹等农业气象灾害有减少的趋势,但干旱灾害趋于频繁而严重。     

中国农业社会人口密度对气候梯度的响应

为了解现代农业社会的人口对气候条件如何进行选择,基于公元2000年的中国人口调查数据,利用空间统计模型分析了农业社会人口密度对年均气温和年降水量梯度的响应曲线.结果表明,从事农业活动的人口在地势平坦区域较为稠密,呈现东多西少、南北单峰的格局.现代农业社会的人口密度与年均气温、年降水量之间存在正态分布关系,人口倾向聚集于气温、降雨均适中的地区.笔者认为虽然人类自身存在对气候的选择,但在农业社会,人类与气候的关系主要取决于农作物与气候的关系,气候利于农作物高产的区域易于形成人口的聚集.未来气候变化可能引发农业社会的人口流动,随之而来的潜在社会机遇和问题需要政府管理与决策部门预先做好相应的对策.     

1959～2008年辽宁省浅层地温变化趋势分析

利用1959～2008年辽宁省0、5、15、20cm各层逐月平均地温,采用气候倾向率和累积距平气候统计方法,分析辽宁省各浅层地温年、月变化趋势及气候异常等特征。结果表明：各层年平均地温以0.171～0.823℃/10a的升温率显著上升。年代变化趋势存在共同的特征：20世纪60年代前期至中期变化平稳,20世纪60年代末期至70年代初期处于50年以来的低温期。20世纪70年代中期至21世纪初,尤其80年代以后,各浅层地温增温显著,其中21世纪初期处于50年以来的高温期。辽宁省近50年浅层5、10、15、20cm月平均地温4～10月异常年份较多,且异常偏暖年份明显多于异常偏冷年份。就年平均温度而言：异常年份较少。     

Role of land-surface changes in arctic summer warming

A major challenge in predicting Earth's future climate state is to understand feedbacks that alter greenhouse-gas forcing. Here we synthesize field data from arctic Alaska, showing that terrestrial changes in summer albedo contribute substantially to recent high-latitude warming trends. Pronounced terrestrial summer warming in arctic Alaska correlates with a lengthening of the snow-free season that has increased atmospheric heating locally by about 3 watts per square meter per decade (similar in magnitude to the regional heating expected over multiple decades from a doubling of atmospheric CO2). The continuation of current trends in shrub and tree expansion could further amplify this atmospheric heating by two to seven times.     

Financing Sustainable Agriculture Under Climate Change

Agriculture is facing great challenge in meeting global food security and is expected to face even greater challenge under climate change. The overall goal of this paper is to examine how finance can be used to achieve the joint objectives of development, mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in agriculture in developing world based on literature review. The results show that agriculture is much under invested and foreign aid also has not increased appropriately to assist developing countries to maintain sustainable agriculture under climate change. There are a wide range of areas in mitigation of and adaptation to climate change that need substantial investment. Major areas and successful cases mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in agriculture that have worked in developing countries are examined. A list of areas that have worked, could work and be scaled up or transferred is identified and discussed. This study concludes that mainstreaming agricultural mitigation and adaptation into agricultural development programs, enhancing local capacity, and considering different stakeholders＇ needs are major experiences for successfully financing sustainable agriculture under climate change.