Long-term monitoring of tropical bats for anthropogenic impact assessment: Gauging the statistical power to detect population change

Bats are ecologically important mammals in tropical ecosystems; however, their populations face numerous environmental threats related to climate change, habitat loss, fragmentation, hunting, and emerging diseases. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop and implement large-scale networks to monitor trends in bat populations over extended time periods. Using data from a range of Neotropical and Paleotropical bat assemblages, we assessed the ability for long-term monitoring programs to reliably detect temporal trends in species abundance. We explored the magnitude of within-site temporal variation in abundance and evaluated the statistical power of a suite of different sampling designs for several different bat species and ensembles. Despite pronounced temporal variation in abundance of most tropical bat species, power simulations suggest that long-term monitoring programs (?20 years) can detect population trends of 5% per year or more with adequate statistical power (?0.9). However, shorter monitoring programs (?10 years) have insufficient power for trend detection. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that a monitoring program extending over 20 years with four surveys conducted biennially on five plots per monitoring site would have the potential for detecting a 5% annual change in abundance for a suite of bat species from different ensembles. The likelihood of reaching adequate statistical power was sensitive to initial species abundance and the magnitude of count variation, stressing that only the most abundant species in an assemblage and those with generally low variation in abundance should be considered for detailed population monitoring.     

Patterns of fish invasions in the Great Plains of North America

A basic step toward controlling invasive species outbreaks is to predict which assemblages or habitats are most susceptible to invasion and effects of invading species on native communities. However, because predictive models may not work across a wide range of conditions it is important to examine processes associated with fish invasions across different regions. In this study, we use data from 949 sites in Oklahoma and Kansas to examine spatial patterns of species invasions in the Great Plains region of the US. Of these sites, 16 were intensively sampled between 1977 and 1994 and used to evaluate temporal patterns of species introductions. We found a trend of increasing introduced species richness without a decline in native species richness over 18 years. However, total abundance and community structure of native assemblages has changed at several of these sites during this time period. Because some of these changes occurred at sites with few or no introduced species, factors other than interactions with introduced fishes may have been responsible for this pattern. A stepwise multiple regression model that included human population size, native species richness, mean annual precipitation and drainage area explained 43% of the variation in the number of non-native species across all sites. Most introduced species in this region have native ranges within the Mississippi River basin and therefore are presumably adapted to regional environmental conditions. Great Plains streams have, to some extent, resisted invasion by introduced species; however, our analysis shows that proximity to dense human populations and importance to humans has largely structured species introductions and can partly explain spatial patterns of species invasions in this region.     

An Integrated Population Model From Constant Effort Bird-Ringing Data

Data from annual bird-ringing programs, in which catch effort is standardized, are routinely used to index abundance, productivity, and adult survival. Efficient models have been developed for each. Such monitoring schemes, based on ringing across a number of sites, are perhaps unique in providing this combination of demographic information and make the data particularly amenable to an integrated approach to population modeling. We develop a Bayesian approach and a deterministic population model uniting abundance, productivity, and survival. The method is applied to sedge warbler Acrocephalus schoenobaenus data from the British Trust for Ornithology’s Constant Effort Sites scheme. The possibility of “transient” birds needs to be incorporated within this analysis. We demonstrate how current methodology can efficiently be extended to use additional data from multiple within year recaptures when controlling for transience. Supplemental materials for this article are available online.     

Rapid monitoring of species abundance for biodiversity conservation: Consistency and reliability of the MacKinnon lists technique

Effective monitoring of biodiversity for conservation requires information on spatial and temporal variation in species’ abundances. As conservation resources are limited, monitoring methods are required that enable rapid and cost effective data collection. There are many traditional methods of estimating absolute abundance, such as territory mapping and distance sampling. However, these typically require more time, expertise and finances than are available across much of the globe. This is especially so in the tropics, where high species richness, low densities of many species and structurally complex environments also make monitoring particularly challenging. The MacKinnon lists technique is a rapid assessment methodology designed for use in species rich environments. This method is typically used to estimate species richness, but it has also been suggested that it can generate consistent abundance indices, even when observer experience and environmental conditions vary. If this suggestion is correct, the MacKinnon lists method could be used to assess spatial or temporal changes in abundance using diverse survey data. Here, we provide the first detailed assessment of intra- and inter-observer consistency of the Mackinnon List method in generating species abundance indices that could be useful for conservation monitoring purposes. As a case study, we use one of the world’s most diverse avifaunas, that of the forested Bolivian Andes. We show that MacKinnon lists can provide species abundance indices that are consistent between observers of markedly different experience of the focal avifauna (zero to six years), and between assessments carried out in different stages of the breeding season, between which detectability of individuals differed significantly. We believe this is the first time that a biodiversity monitoring method has been demonstrated to produce consistent abundance indices for a highly diverse avian tropical assemblage. We also suggest that the MacKinnon lists methodology has the potential to be a very useful conservation monitoring tool for many taxa in species rich environments, such as the tropics.     

Climate warming and the rainforest birds of the Australian Wet Tropics: Using abundance data as a sensitive predictor of change in total population size

Global average surface temperatures have increased rapidly over the last 100 years and there is accumulating evidence that climate change is already causing shifts in species’ distributions. We use extensive abundance data and expected range shifts across altitudinal gradients to predict changes in total population size of rainforest birds of Australian tropical rainforests in response to climate warming. According to our most conservative model scenario, 74% of rainforest birds of north-eastern Australia are predicted to become threatened (including 26 critically endangered species) as a result of projected mid-range warming expected within the next 100 years. Extinction risk varies according to where along the altitudinal gradient a species is currently most abundant. Upland birds are most affected and are likely to be immediately threatened by even small increases in temperature. In contrast, there is a capacity for the population size of lowland species to increase, at least in the short term. We conclude that abundance data collected across climatic gradients will be fundamental to gaining an understanding of population size change associated with climate warming.     

Magnitude of Species Diversity Effect on Aboveground Plant Biomass Increases Through Successional Time of Abandoned Farmlands on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau of China

Recent empirical and theoretical studies have shown that magnitude and direction of biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning can shifts over time. Here, we used species richness and plant abundance (total individual plant stem density) as proxies for species diversity and aboveground biomass for productivity. We used an analytical approach combining both chronosequence and 6 year of vegetation monitoring in a subalpine ecosystem as a model system to assess temporal species richness–abundance–aboveground biomass relationships at different successional stages and spatial scales. We observed that both species richness and plant aboveground biomass increased rapidly early in succession after land abandonment, then after 10 years of abandonment reached a steady state. We found that the relationship between species richness and plant abundance with aboveground biomass was strengthening over successional time. In all successional stages, species richness had stronger positive effects as compared with plant abundance on plant aboveground biomass. Species richness was linearly correlated with aboveground biomass, whereas plant abundance showed a humped‐back relationship with aboveground biomass across all successional stages. Our results showed an increase in the effect of plant diversity over time, and a combination of both plant species richness and abundance is correlated with plant productivity throughout successional time, knowledge that maybe important to managing ecological restoration and conservation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Thirty-year recovery trend in the once depleted Hawaiian green sea turtle stock

The green sea turtle is one of the long-lived species that comprise the charismatic marine megafauna. The green turtle has a long history of human exploitation with some stocks extinct. Here we report on a 30-year study of the nesting abundance of the green turtle stock endemic to the Hawaiian Archipelago. We show that there has been a substantial long-term increase in abundance of this once seriously depleted stock following cessation of harvesting since the 1970s. This population increase has occurred in a far shorter period of time than previously thought possible. There was also a distinct 3-4 year periodicity in annual nesting abundance that might be a function of regional environmental stochasticity that synchronises breeding behaviour throughout the Archipelago. This is one of the few reliable long-term population abundance time series for a large long-lived marine species, which are needed for gaining insights into the recovery process of long-lived marine species and long-term ecological processes.     

Quantifying conservation concern - Bayesian statistics, birds and the red lists

For species that are still widespread, obtaining accurate and precise measures of population change inevitably means gathering representative sample data rather than undertaking a complete census. In the UK, a system of raising ‘alerts’ utilises stochastic models for such data to identify species in rapid (>50%) or moderate (25-50%) decline across various temporal and spatial scales. Considerable improvements in interpretation can be made by explaining annual fluctuations in terms of explicit population models (rather than trends of an arbitrary mathematical form); through the simultaneous modelling of data from a complete or partial census with those providing information on the demographic rates employed in these models; and through adopting a Bayesian rather than a frequentist statistical approach. A Bayesian approach is natural for quantifying, in the form of a probability, the support provided by the data for assigning a species to each of the categories. Based on territory mapping and ringing data for the lapwing Vanellus vanellus, we describe such an approach. Trends are estimated more precisely than those under models previously employed in the alerts context. Some smoothing is induced, but realistic responses to years of severe weather are retained, and these are expressed also via model-averaged trends in key demographic parameters. We discuss the conservation implications for this declining species, and the wider potential arising from the ability to quantify confidence that population change has exceeded a threshold either generating conservation concern or justifying a subsequent programme of action for recovery.     

Annual population dynamics and production ecology of Testacea (Protozoa,Rhizopoda) in an aspen woodland soil

The population studies of Testacea in an aspen woodland soil revealed 28 taxa of living Testacea, 14 of which were considered constant. The 14 species, while comprising 98 and 96% of the mean annual density and total annual production numbers respectively, accounted for only 80% of the mean annual biomass and 86% of the total annual production biomass. All 14 species had a peak in abundance in autumn, immediately or soon after leaf litter fall. While most species maintained small, active and reproducing populations over the winter period, some maintained higher than normal densities, had seasonal peaks in abundance and biomass, or higher than normal rates of production and turnover. All species had an increase in reproduction and usually in abundance also during the late winter-early spring period before spring thaw. The annual mean weekly density and biomass and the annual production totals tor numbers and biomass were highest in the H layer and lowest in the L. The F layer produced the highest numbers of generations per year and the highest annual mean weekly biomass turnover rate for most of the species. The majority of the periods of high intrinsic rate of natural increase, biomass production and turnover occurred during or after an increase, a decrease or a stabilization in soil moisture content. Mean annual biomass and total annual production were estimated as 0.72 and 206 g wet weight m^?2 respectively. The aspen woodland soil Testacea (in a mor humus) had a much higher production and number of generations per year than Testacea from mull and moder humus forms.Total annual ingestion, respiration losses and egestion losses for testate amoebae in an aspen woodland soil were calculated as 1377, 344 and 826 g wet weight of biomass m^?2, respectively. The annual secondary production of Testacea was about 250–300 times the standing crop of Testacea in all the soil layers. The dry weight of carbon respired per year by the Testacea was estimated as 16.2 g m^?2, which amounted to about 6% of the total carbon input.     

Habitat selection by the common wombat (Vombatus ursinus) in disturbed environments: Implications for the conservation of a ‘common’ species

The construction of habitat models is a repeatable technique for describing and mapping species distributions, the utility of which lies in enabling management to predict where a species is likely to occur within a landscape. Typically, habitat models have been used to establish habitat requirements for threatened species; however they have equal applicability for modelling local populations of common species. Often, few data exist on local populations of common species, and issues of abundance and habitat selection at varying scales are rarely addressed. We provide a habitat suitability model for the common wombat (Vombatus ursinus) in southern New South Wales. This species is currently perceived as abundant throughout its extensive range across temperate regions of eastern Australia, yet little factual survey data exist and populations appear under threat. We use wombat burrows to reflect habitat selection and as our basis for ecological modelling. We found that environmental variables representing proximity to cover, measures of vegetation and proximity to watercourses are important predictors of burrow presence. Extrapolation of habitat models identified an abundance of habitat suitable for burrows. However, burrows in many suitable areas were abandoned. Our estimate of the population size was similar to the total annual mortality associated with road-kill. Theoretically, given the availability of suitable habitat, common wombat populations in the region should be thriving. It seems likely that this area once supported a much higher number of wombats; however limiting factors such as road mortality and disease have reduced the populations. The persistence of wombats in the study region must be supported by migration from other populations. Our findings challenge the perception that wombats are currently common and not in need of monitoring, suggesting that perceptions of abundance are often clouded by socio-political motives rather than informed by biological and ecological factors.     

Effective non-invasive genetic monitoring of multiple wild western gorilla groups

Obtaining reliable population size or abundance estimates of endangered species is critical for their conservation and management. Genotyping non-invasively collected samples is an effective way to gain insights into the number and grouping patterns of rare or elusive animals. In this study we used genetic capture-recapture estimators to obtain a precise estimate of the size of a western gorilla population inhabiting an intensely sampled 101 km² area in Loango National Park, Gabon. Using 394 putative gorilla samples collected opportunistically over a 3 year period, we identified 83 unique genotypes. We used a rarefaction curve, Bayesian estimator and two maximum-likelihood methods to estimate that between 87 and 107 individuals used the study area between February 2005 and September 2007. The confidence interval surrounding the genetic estimate was smaller than that obtained using traditional ape survey methods. In addition, genetic analysis showed that gorilla and chimpanzee faeces were identified with 98% and 95% accuracy in the field, respectively. Patterns of co-occurrence of individual gorillas suggest that at least 11 gorilla social groups and five lone silverback males lived in the study area and that several individuals transferred between groups during the 3-year study period. When properly designed and implemented as part of a long-term biomonitoring program, genetic capture-recapture should prove an invaluable tool for evaluating, even on a large-scale, the population size and dynamics of apes and other elusive species.     

Usefulness of volunteer data to measure the large scale decline of “common” toad populations

Measuring a species decline is pivotal to evaluate their conservation status, but an accurate assessment of demographic trends requires observations collected across broad spatial and temporal scales. Volunteers can help to collect information over large scales, but their data may be affected by heterogeneity for sampling efforts and protocols, which may influence detection probability. Ignoring this issue may conduct to misleading conclusions. Here we show that data collected by different volunteer groups can be integrated with measures of sampling efforts, to obtain information on large scale demographic trends. We collected data on 33 common toad (Bufo bufo) populations across Italy for the period 1993–2010. We used two approaches (meta-analysis; analysis of average change in population size) to evaluate the overall demographic trend. We incorporated measures of volunteer sampling efforts into analyses, to take into account changes in detection probability. Toad abundance significantly declined in the last decade. From 2000 to 2010, 70% of populations showed a strong decline, and only 10% increased. Trends were heterogeneous among populations, but taking into account sampling effort reduced heterogeneity by 40%. We detected a 76% cumulative average decline of toad populations, despite an increasing mean sampling effort. The widespread toad decline rises concern for its future, also because the causes remain unclear. Volunteer data can be extremely useful to identify large scale population trends, if information on sampling effort are recorded and used to adjust counts.     

新疆参考作物蒸散量时空变化分析

参考作物蒸散量是表征大气蒸散能力,评价气候干旱程度、植被耗水量的重要指标。利用新疆101个气象站1961－2008年的逐月气候资料,采用联合国粮农组织推荐的Penman-Monteith公式计算出各站逐月参考作物蒸散量,使用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检测以及基于GIS的宏观地理因子三维二次趋势面模拟与反距离加权残差订正相结合的空间插值技术,对新疆近48 a参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征进行了分析。新疆参考作物蒸散量的空间分布总体为南疆大于北疆、东部大于西部、盆（谷）地大于山区。受气温上升、日照时数减少、风速减小、相对湿度增大的影响,近48 a新疆参考作物蒸散量呈显著减小趋势,并于1981年发生了突变性减小,但各地具有明显的区域性差异, 参考作物蒸散越强烈的区域,其递减倾向率和减小幅度也越大。参考作物蒸散量减小对降低作物需水量和农田灌溉量、减小地表干燥度、改善新疆脆弱的生态环境具有重要意义。     

Estimating the potential role of commercial over‐harvesting in resource viability: a case study of five useful tree species in South Africa

There is a growing commercialization of non‐timber forest products (NTFPs) as a means of livelihood by rural communities throughout the developing world. This often occurs in the absence of any clear understanding of or guidelines regarding sustainable yields and ecological impacts, which may undermine the success of NTFP enterprises, especially from arid regions. This paper reports on the use of size class profiles and three quantitative indices to examine population profiles of five potentially useful tree species used as NTFPs in the semiarid lowveld of South Africa. We also contrast the population densities of the five tree species in 2003 with data from 1992. Low stem densities and population profiles indicated that three of the five species would preclude the establishment of NTFP enterprises based on their products. The other two species seem to have sufficient densities for some harvesting to take place, within an adaptive management framework. However, the longitudinal data indicated that the density of both these species had significantly declined over an eleven‐year period, highlighting the need for appropriate management institutions. Additionally, the proportion of mature stems cut, and the degree of cutting per stem, had increased for all five species over the eleven years. The three quantitative indices of population stability were not correlated with one another, and hence provided a useful suite of measures sensitive to different aspects of size class profiles and their interpretation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reproductive success of the black-backed woodpecker (Picoides arcticus) in burned boreal forests: Are burns source habitats?

The black-backed woodpecker (Picoides arcticus) is considered a fire specialist throughout its breeding range. Given its high abundance in recent burns, it has been hypothesized that post-fire forests are source habitats for this species. We conducted a 3-year post-fire study to evaluate the temporal occupancy and reproductive success of black-backed woodpeckers in high-severity burned black spruce forests of central Quebec, Canada. We examined how reproductive success varied temporally and spatially within a burned landscape and investigated the potential source or sink status of this woodpecker population over time. Woodpecker nest density was high in the year after fire but declined significantly over the 3-year period. Based on 106 nests, nest success declined from 84% the first year after fire to 73% and 25%, respectively, for the second and third years after fire. Nest density and reproductive success were higher in areas with high proportions of burned mature forests than in areas dominated by burned young forests. Reproductive success was also higher in proximity to unburned forests. Comparison of annual productivity with a range of survival estimates indicated that these burned forests likely functioned as source habitats for the first 2 years following fire, although this status varied as a function of pre-fire forest age. Our results suggest that post-fire forests may contribute significantly to population levels in fire-prone ecosystems. Forest management practices that reduce the amount of mature and over-mature forests can affect the quality of post-fire habitats important to the black-backed woodpecker and other fire-associated species.     

Population trends of birds across the iron curtain: Brain matters

One approach to assess human impact on species’ population dynamics is to correlate ecological traits of species with their long-term population trends. Yet, few studies investigated population trends in multiple regions that differ in human impact to reveal which traits explain population trends over larger geographic areas and which only regionally. We examined the relationship between various species traits and long-term population trends of 57 common passerine bird species from 1991 to 2007 in three adjacent regions in central Europe that experienced differences in socioeconomic history: North-Western Germany, Eastern Germany and the Czech Republic. We tested effects of habitat, dietary and climatic niche, migratory strategy and cognitive ability, measured as relative brain size. We predicted that traits reflecting socioeconomic and land-use change had stronger effects in former communist countries than in North-Western Germany due to marked changes in these countries after 1990. We found that climatic niche and migratory strategy affected bird abundances similarly in all regions suggesting their influence is invariant across central Europe. In contrast, brain size showed regionally varying effects. The effects were negligible in North-Western Germany, slightly positive in Eastern Germany and strongly positive in the Czech Republic. Increases of species with large brains suggest that species with good cognitive abilities might have been better able to adapt to rapid socioeconomic change and make use of novel opportunities after the end of communism. Regional differences in population trends among species thus appear to be driven by an interaction between cognitive abilities and socioeconomic change.     

禾本科植物微卫星序列的特征分析和比较

微卫星或简单序列重复（simple sequence repeats,SSRs）广泛存在于真核生物的基因组中,是目前最有用的分子标记之一。本研究首次利用全基因序列对4个禾本科植物种,包括二穗短柄草（Brachypodium distachyon）、水稻（Oryza sativa）、高粱（Sorghum bicolor）和玉米（Zea mays）的SSR的类型、丰度（数量）、相对丰度、频率、长度和偏好性等进行了分析和比较。结果表明,禾本科植物中SSR的丰度与基因组大小成正比,而相对丰度与基因组大小相关不显著;三核苷酸和六核苷酸基序类型比其它类型更为丰富;不同物种皆呈现出明显的基序偏好性。总的来讲,除个别例外,禾本科植物的基因组中更倾向于富含A/T的基序。本研究结果为研究禾本科植物的基因组进化和SSR标记的开发提供了有价值的信息。     

Population sizes, site fidelity and residence patterns of Australian snubfin and Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins: Implications for conservation

Very little is known about the ecology of snubfin Orcaella heinsohni and Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins Sousa chinensis in Australian waters. We used photo-identification data collected between 1999 and 2002 in Cleveland Bay, northeast Queensland, to estimate abundance, site fidelity and residence patterns of these species in order to make recommendations for their effective conservation and management. Our abundance estimates indicate that less than a hundred individuals of each species inhabit this coastal area. Even with relatively unbiased and precise abundance estimates population trends will be extremely difficult to detect in less than three years unless changes in population size are very high (>20% p.a.). Though both species are not permanent residents in Cleveland Bay, they both used the area regularly from year to year following a model of emigration and reimmigration. Individuals of both species spend periods of days to a month or more in coastal waters of Cleveland Bay before leaving, and periods of over a month outside the study area before entering the bay again. Because of their small population sizes and movement patterns, snubfin and humpback dolphins are particularly vulnerable to local extinction. Our results illustrate that: (1) detection of population trends should not be a necessary criterion for enacting conservation measures of both species in this region, and (2) efforts to maintain viable populations of both species in Cleveland Bay must include management strategies that integrate anthropogenic activities in surrounding areas.     

Reducing tillage in cultivated fields increases earthworm functional diversity

Alternative cropping systems such as conservation agriculture have been implemented to limit the harmful effects of intensive conventional cropping systems. Conservation agriculture is known to modify the structural diversity of earthworm communities, but no data have been reported so far on their functional diversity. Structural and functional indices of community were used to study the effects of different soil tillage intensity on earthworm diversity in arable soils.Field data were collected in four agricultural trials across France representing different soiland climatic conditions. Three types of soil tillage were assessed: plowing, superficial tillage and direct seeding. Earthworm abundance, species richness and ecomorphological group abundance were investigated. Seven functional traits, i.e. body length, body mass/length ratio, epithelium type, cocoon diameter, typhlosolis type, carbon preferences and vertical distribution, were selected according to their hypothesized link with mechanisms of tillage impact. Functional diversity indices were then computed. Soil tillage intensity decreased functional diversity and modified the functional trait profile within the earthworm community whereas neither structural diversity (species number) nor abundance changed with tillage intensity. Differences between plowing and direct seeding were significant in each trial, and superficial tillage often showed intermediate trait values. Regarding ecomorphological groups, anecic abundance was positively influenced by a decrease in soil tillage, contrary to epigeic and endogeic earthworms that showed no response. Tillage acts as an environmental filter, and decreasing its intensity caused a lesser convergence of traits and thus higher functional trait diversity. We demonstrated that a trait-based approach better permitted comparisons of community responses across sites than species number or abundance.