Determinants of entry: Evidence from new manufacturing firms in the U.S

The objective of this paper is to estimate the relationship between agglomeration economies and the birth of new firms in U.S. manufacturing sectors during 2004–2012. I examine the variations in Marshallian factors across MSAs and across counties within MSAs. My findings support the existence of Marshallian agglomeration forces: input sharing, labor market pooling, and knowledge spillovers, with input–output linkages particularly important. I then examine the variations in Marshallian factors across regions and find regional differences are not very strong. In addition, large-sized firms appear to be more responsive to a supplier-customer relationship. Moreover, my empirical results provide evidence that firms in highly concentrated industries react more to input linkage and labor pooling.     

Innovation in suburban development zones: Evidence from Nanjing,China

While suburban areas have been typically related with urban sprawl, low density, cheap land price and low‐end manufacturing industries, relatively little attention has been paid to the spatial organization of innovation in suburban areas. In some Chinese cities, development zones (kai fa qu) in their suburban areas which are generally regarded as major spaces for traditional manufacturing industries have been transforming into spaces for innovation. This paper provides a case study of Nanjing, the capital of Jiangsu province in Eastern China by investigating and explaining the learning and innovation processes in suburban development zones. Drawing upon a unique database on 733 state‐certified high‐tech firms in Nanjing from 2008 to 2012 which contains detailed information on their addresses and number of patents, we observe strong spatial disparity in the distribution of innovation. Suburban districts of Nanjing where its three national‐level development zones and many provincial‐level development zones are located have become major spaces for innovation of the city. The planning of industrial clusters in development zones, the place‐based investment in the suburbs, and the suburbanization of universities are three major mechanisms behind the learning and innovation processes in Nanjing’s suburban development zones.     

Towards the Spatial Patterns of Sectoral Adjustments to Trade Liberalisation: The Case of NAFTA in Mexico

ABSTRACT A recent string of “new economic geography” (NEG) models has set focus on the impacts of trade liberalisation on the intra‐national distribution of economic activity. What the existing contributions have in common is a basic two‐sector assumption (agriculture/manufacturing) and a resulting focus on the question of whether liberalisation leads to a greater concentration of aggregate manufacturing activity. Reconsidering these models from a multi‐sectoral perspective, the aim is to allow for sectoral differences in the spatial adjustments to liberalisation. This introduces a conceptual nexus between comparative advantage (CA)‐type sectoral recomposition effects of trade and NEG‐type spatial adjustments. In the analysis of Mexican manufacturing location 1993–2003, incipient empirical evidence is found in favour of the hypothesis that sectors characterised by a revealed comparative advantage and/or cross‐border intermediate supplies grow faster in regions with good foreign market access, whereas import competing ones gain in relative terms in regions with higher “natural protection” from poor market access. The relevancy of the proposed NEG/CA framework concerns both efficiency and equity objectives of trade adjustment policies, and opens a new perspective on the long‐run effects of trade on spatial inequality.     

Sources of Output Change in the U.S. Economy

Output changes in the U.S. economy from 1972 to 1977 are analyzed using a 477-sector input-output framework. The empirical model is based on benchmark data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Commodity output changes are attributed to technical change, import substitution, changes in domestic final demand, and changes in export demand. Special attention is given to the importance of international trade and the patterns of change observed in rapidly growing and declining sectors. The results indicate that 71 percent of the sectors lost domestic market share to imports, but on balance international trade contributed to positive output change through increased exports. Technology changes became increasingly important in sectors of the economy experiencing either rapid growth or decline. Conversely, final demand, exports, and import substitution generally appeared to be most important in the slowly changing sectors. These findings confirm and expand on earlier work that indicated a dominant role for technology changes in explaining output changes in emerging and declining industries.     

Geographical Spillovers and University Research: A Spatial EconometricPerspective

Using data for U.S. metropolitan statistical areas, an earlier study of aggregate local geographic research spillovers generated by universities (Anselin et al.1997) was extended to a sectorally disaggregated level. These findings suggest the existence of significant sectoral variation with respect to local university effects on innovation. Apparent differences were found across sectors with respect to the “mix” of applied local knowledge inputs in general, and the extent to which university research plays a role in innovation in particular. The main conclusion is that local university spillovers seem to be specific to certain industries, such that at the two‐digit SIC level, no university spillover effects are at work in the Drugs and Chemicals (SIC28) and in the Machinery (SIC35) sectors. On the contrary, very strong and significant university research spillovers are evidenced in the Electronics (SIC36) and the Instruments (SIC38) industries. These spillovers extend beyond the boundary of the MSA within a 75‐mile range from the central city.     

Regional Growth Dynamics in the Service Sector: The Determinants of Employment Change in UK Regions, 1971–2005

There is a need to better understand the dynamics relating to the evolving economic structure of regions, in particular factors concerning deindustrialisation and the growth of services. In order to unpick the dynamics relating to contemporary regional evolution, this paper examines regional employment in the UK's services sectors from 1971 to 2005. The analysis utilises the statistical technique of multi‐factor partitioning to examine the evolutionary dynamics of employment change in the UK service sector. Overall, differing growth trajectories in services employment across regions appear to be the result of the different underlying industrial structures observed within the regions themselves. The findings indicate that the industrial structure of a region has a significant influence on employment change in services, with related variety being of greater consequence than specialisation. This suggests that diversity, or urbanisation, effects have a greater influence than specialisation effects on “lighter” industries than “heavier” industries. Spatio‐temporal variations within the development of services are evident in the analysis, and there is evidence of convergence across the regions for all sub‐sectors examined. It concludes that in an increasingly services‐dominated economy, diversity and related variety have some weight in explaining regional development paths.     

The Impact of Output and Productivity Changes on Manufacturing Employment

Traditional univariate shift-share studies of employment provide an unreliable indicator of the relative performance of a region or an industry for they fail to separate the effects of output and productivity change on the demand for labor. An extended shift-share model is proposed that overcomes this weakness and permits identification of different processes of regional development. This model is used to investigate annual employment change in twenty (two-digit SIC) manufacturing industries in nine census regions of the U.S. between 1950 and 1986. The timing and depth of the exodus of manufacturing jobs from the snowbelt to the sunbelt is illustrated along with the business cycle performance of industries and regions. Productivity growth in the sunbelt is positively associated with rapid output expansion, whereas in the snowbelt it is associated with the loss of market share and economic rationalization.     

Role of Services in Regional Economy Growth

ABSTRACT Although the final demand‐oriented export base paradigm dominates economic development theory and practice, its usefulness is increasingly questioned because of the changing structure of modern economies, empirical critiques of export‐led growth strategies, and studies that decompose the actual sources of growth. The importance of service industries, especially local services and their role in inducing economic growth, requires a measure that includes both forward and backward linkages to empirically account for the complete role of an industry. Using data for New York State, we demonstrate how the input‐output‐based method of hypothetical extraction can more appropriately measure the economic linkage of a broader range of contemporary economic sectors (including services) than traditional, final demand‐induced, backward‐linkage multipliers. Our analysis provides empirical support for greater economic development attention to be directed toward local services.     

Income Divergence between Mexican States in the 1990s: The Role of Skill Premium

ABSTRACT During the period 1940–1985 the variance of average incomes across Mexican states fell by 60 percent. Beginning in 1985, however, and coinciding with the adoption of trade liberalization policies and other market‐oriented reforms, state incomes began to diverge. Using microdata from the 1990 and 2000 Mexican Population Censuses, this study decomposes the recent divergence into components due to economy‐wide changes in skill prices and components due to state‐specific changes in the composition of workers. The study finds that the rise in the education premium hindered the progress of poor states and raised the variance of average state wages and labor earnings. However, educational attainment mostly compensated for this income‐widening effect. State‐level regressions reveal that the initial level of education, size of the agricultural sector, and distance from the U.S. border were important factors, while public infrastructure was not. While the border states clearly benefited from increased trade and opening of the economy, I find no evidence that skill demand or the immigration of highly educated workers particularly favored these states.     

Disparities and Divided Growth: Ethnic Entrepreneurship in the Greater Los Angeles Area, 1980–2015

This study employs a multilevel research design to examine business ownership across ethnic groups in the greater Los Angeles area. It finds significant divide between white and non‐white businesses along the labor market hierarchy. The entrepreneurial environment, ethnic residential communities, ethnic business spatial clustering, ethnic concentration in particular niche sectors, and ethnic diversity in local areas are all related to business ownership and disparities across ethnic groups. The results suggest that ethnically diverse neighborhoods and co‐ethnic business communities could provide a conducive institutional environment and resources for minority businesses to start. However, in contrast to white owned businesses, ethnic minority businesses' concentration in the low‐end and easy‐entry sectors may reinforce their disadvantages and hinder upward economic mobility. This study provides policy implications for community regional development through entrepreneurship especially when race and ethnicity are concerned.     

Exporting,Foreign Direct Investment,and Wages: Evidence from the Canadian Manufacturing Sector

Do exporters and foreign‐controlled establishments pay their workers higher wages than non‐exporters and domestic‐controlled establishments? This paper draws on an employer–employee data set to explore the existence of exporter and foreign‐owned wage premiums in the Canadian manufacturing sector. Results from wage regression models reveal that, on the whole, exporters and foreign‐controlled plants do pay higher wages than non‐exporters and domestic‐controlled plants. These results hold even after controlling for other plant and worker characteristics, although the wage differentials are substantially smaller. Furthermore, while the impact of foreign ownership on wages is found to be widespread across industries and regions, that of exporting is not. At the industry level, the wage effects of export‐market participation are strongest for workers in plants belonging to scale‐based industries; regionally, they are strongest in Quebec and British Columbia.     

Productivity Change in Manufacturing Regions: A Multifactor/Shift-Share Approach

ABSTRACT The traditional shift-share model measures the combined effects of output growth and productivity change on employment. A region with above average employment growth either has a favorable industry mix or enjoys a competitive advantage over other regions. To separate the effects of output and productivity, the shift-share model is extended to decompose the effects of changes in output and productivity on employment. This paper modifies the Rigby-Anderson extension by separating the contribution of labor and capital to productivity growth in the analysis of regional economic performance, and investigates twenty (two-digit SIC) manufacturing sectors in twelve states (six snowbelt, six sunbelt states) to assess whether observed changes in employment were due to changes in output or to productivity.     

Comparative Analysis of the Total Factor Productivity of Manufacturing in Northeast Asian Metropolitan Areas

We compare and analyze the total factor productivity of the manufacturing industries in the major metropolitan areas of South Korea, China, and Japan. This study can contribute to the economic cooperation among these countries by analyzing their productivity growth and evaluating their relative competitiveness. Statistical data from manufacturing industries are used to analyze five metropolitan areas. The manufacturing industries are classified into 10 sectors, and two different time periods (before and after 1997, when the foreign currency crisis began in Korea) are examined. The results in terms of the development and competitiveness of the manufacturing industries in Korea, China, and Japan will be useful in establishing promotional strategies.     

Technology and the Convergence of U.S. Urban Migration Patterns: 1970–2000

ABSTRACT The theoretical premise of this study is twofold. First, that industrial and occupational restructuring within three industries in the U.S.—manufacturing, finance, and high technology—occurred because of technological developments and these, in turn, influenced the settlement patterns of working‐age individuals. Second, that quality‐of‐life factors are increasingly important for the migration decisions of workers as the importance of proximity to ports and raw materials declines. As expected, the results show that high concentrations of high‐technology and finance occupations generally have a positive pull for migrants, with younger migrants most attracted to technology jobs. High concentrations of manufacturing jobs have a negative effect. Most surprisingly, the explanatory power of the model declines substantially across the three decades. Both employment variables and proxies for quality‐of‐life variables lost explanatory power for modeling age‐specific in‐migration to metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Overall, the results support the industrial restructuring hypothesis, but do not find support for the idea that quality‐of‐life factors have grown in importance.     

The Growing Economic Specialization of Cities: Disentangling Industrial and Functional Dimensions in the Canadian Urban System, 1971–2006

Decreasing spatial transaction and trade costs have given rise to growing economic specialization of cities. While most studies focus on industries as the primary manifestation of urban specialization, a growing body of literature examines occupational functions, i.e., activities and tasks performed within a given industry or firm. This paper explores how the two dimensions (industries and functions) interact across the urban system and their relative importance over time. Is there a trend toward increasing functional specialization in the Canadian urban system? How much of this phenomenon is attributable to spatial shifts in regional industrial structures as opposed to spatial divisions within industries? The paper uses a unique data set drawn from Statistics Canada Census microdata files between 1971 and 2006. Based on the employed population, the data are spatially organized and cross‐tabulated over industries and occupational groups. A decomposition methodology is used to compare the relative weights of industry and regional (functional) effects in accounting for the changing spatial division of functions across Canadian urban areas. Clear patterns of increasing functional specialization are found within the Canadian urban system. Regional effects are generally greater than industry effects, suggesting that spatial divisions of functions (spatial shifts within industries) are progressing more rapidly than regional shifts in industrial structure.     

How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with the Initial Local Unemployment Rate

This article estimates how effects of local labor demand shocks on labor market outcomes vary with the initial local unemployment rate, which has not been previously studied. The data are on 23 large U.S. metro areas from 1979 to 2011. The article finds that demand shocks to local job growth have greater effects in increasing real wages if the local economy initially has low unemployment. However, demand shocks have greater effects in reducing unemployment, and increasing labor force participation, if the local economy initially has high unemployment, although these differences are only of modest statistical significance. The estimates are based on a new econometric approach to determining the correct dynamic structure for how local labor markets respond to demand shocks. This new approach finds that demand shocks have persistent effects on labor force participation and real wages, but not on unemployment, which contradicts some previous research.     

The Influence of Agglomeration Externalities on Manufacturing Growth Within Indonesian Locations

Differences in agglomeration externalities and industrial regimes between locations generate performance differentials for their localized economic activities. For more than two decades, scholars have debated which externality is dominant for growth and under which regime. This study aims to resolve this debate by analyzing the influence of agglomeration economies on the growth of five‐digit manufacturing sectors and firms for Indonesian cities and regencies between 2000 and 2009. This is investigated employing the recent reconceptualization of variety based on sectoral linkages distinguishing related and unrelated varieties, which allow assessing their idiosyncratic economic roles. The findings support that economic relatedness is the dominant source for expansion of sectors and firms within Indonesian locations. Specialized clusters and competition are inversely related to manufacturing growth, although the latter fosters sectoral employment within Indonesian regencies. Population density and human capital show antithetic effects between cities and regencies due to their distinctive urbanization trajectories and industrial compositions.     

An Analysis on China Neutral Technological Progress by Embodied Spillovers from North America

This paper empirically discusses the mechanism of China Neutral Technology by Embodied Spillovers from North America, and the effect on China economic growth. The simulations show that the effects of technology spillovers on both the innovating and the receiving economies depend on SS and AC. The three sectors spillovers of North America can improve China's Hicks-neutral technological progress, but only the third industry can increase the output of same industry of China, and decrease the output of other two industries. Based on the simulations, some advices are given on China trade policy.     

The State‐by‐State Economic Impacts of the 2002 Shutdown of the Los Angeles–Long Beach Ports

In previous research, the economic impacts of temporary shutdowns of the Los Angeles–Long Beach harbors were simulated after a hypothetical terrorist attack, applying the National Interstate Economic Model to estimate state‐by‐state as well as interindustry impacts. However, the unpredictable characteristic of terrorist attacks might not be applicable to the case of a ports shutdown such as the one caused by the lockout of September–October 2002. Market participants can be expected to have contingency plans based on anticipations of a strike or shutdown. Can we identify any of these in terms of the use of alternate ports, in terms of alternate modes or even alternate time periods? The purpose of this study is to examine these questions. The approach is elaborated by testing for the possible effects of trade diversion to other West Coast ports, transportation modes, and intertemporal substitutions. We use data from WISERTrade describing commodity‐specific trade for the major West Coast ports before, during, and after the 11‐day shutdown of the fall of 2002. Shippers’ ability to divert trade is a key ingredient in the economy's ability to withstand attacks and disruptions. The work estimates the impacts on 47 industrial sectors across 50 states (and the District of Columbia).