农业气候变化脆弱性评价研究进展

阐述了农业气候脆弱性的概念和研究对象,回顾了农业气候脆弱性理论的发展,在该基础上详细地介绍了目前农业气候脆弱性的评价方法,讨论了评价方法的优缺点,指出了当前该领域研究中存在的不足,探讨了该研究以后的发展方向,并对农业气候脆弱性评价作了简单的总结。     

河北省农业旱灾脆弱性评价

旱灾是河北省农业特别是粮食生产可持续发展的严重制约因素。灾害脆弱性程度影响着灾情,因此农业旱灾脆弱性的研究对河北省减灾和农业可持续发展具有特别重要的意义。分析了导致和影响农业旱灾脆弱性的主要因素,选择降水量、土地质量、人均纯收入等9个指标综合评价了68个县市的旱灾脆弱性。结果表明,全省1/3以上的县市属于强度旱灾脆弱区,脆弱度的高值区集中在冀北高原地区。     

全球气候变化背景下农业脆弱性评估方法研究进展

在阐明农业气候变化脆弱性概念的基础上,归纳了农业气候变化脆弱性评价研究的3种主要方法——模型模拟研究、指标评价研究和统计函数分析研究,指出农业气候变化脆弱性的评估研究中存在的问题和发展方向。     

东北黑土区农业干旱脆弱性及其应对策略研究——以黑龙江省为例

为揭示东北黑土区农业干旱脆弱性的时空演化过程与特征,本研究以黑龙江省为例,从暴露水平、敏感程度和适应能力的视角,构建了农业干旱脆弱性评价模型,解析了2000—2020年黑龙江省水稻、玉米、大豆的干旱脆弱性的时空演进过程与特征。结果显示：2000—2011年农业干旱事件频发,其中有8个敏感事件和11个韧性事件,2011年以后再无农业干旱事件发生,2011—2020年水稻、玉米和大豆的干旱脆弱性较2000—2010年分别下降了46.14%、51.50%和38.53%;受作物生育需水量与地区降水不匹配的影响,大豆、水稻的干旱脆弱性相对较高。研究表明,黑龙江省农业干旱脆弱性总体呈先增强后减弱的演进趋势,呈北高南低和东西高、中部低的空间分布格局。基于该结果,本研究提出了旨在提升东北黑土区农业适应气候变化韧性的政策及措施建议。     

农业生产在气候变化中的脆弱性分析——以邯郸市为例

本文选取邯郸主要农作物小麦、玉米、棉花为代表,通过分析三种农作物产量与温度和降水的关系,对农业生产的脆弱性进行了评价,针对全球变暖趋势下小麦、玉米、棉花生产存在的脆弱性问题,提出了合理调整农作物的种植制度和时间,以充分利用热量资源,提高农作物的产量;加强农业基础设施的建设,积极抵御气象灾害;建立完善的应对气象灾害的预警机制;选择适应性强的新的农作物的品种的适应对策,加强农作物对气象灾害的抵御能力,提高农业抵抗自然灾害的能力,稳定农业生产。     

宁夏农业综合开发项目区农业系统气候脆弱性研究——以典型村为例

为明确宁夏不同生态类型区各农业综合开发项目村的农业脆弱性,选取4类共19项指标,构建各典型村的农业系统气候脆弱性评价指标体系,通过AHP层次分析法确定各指标权重,采用分类综合指标分析法从敏感性和适应性两方面对各典型村农业系统气候脆弱性现状进行定量评价,并分析影响各村气候脆弱性的主要因素,最后提出针对性措施。结果表明,影响各村敏感性和适应性的指标各不相同,二者基本呈负相关。5个村的敏感性指数除北马坊(17.61)外均在47.64～53.45,表明北马坊村敏感性较低而其余4个村敏感性较高;适应能力在53.23～76.79,表明5个村的适应能力居中等偏上;5个村的脆弱度均不低于2级,表明各村的气候脆弱度较高,排列顺序为五里墩村>观音村>孙家河村>小店子村>北马坊村。     

草原生态系统气候变化脆弱性评价研究进展(英文)

[目的]综述草原生态系统气候变化脆弱性评价的研究进展。[方法]通过综述国内外生态系统气候变化脆弱性评价方法,以及国内关于主要生态系统的气候变化脆弱性评价案例和研究进展,探讨了目前国内草原生态系统气候变化脆弱性评价存在的问题,并对其评价研究进行了展望。[结果]气候脆弱性问题是气候变化影响研究的重要内容,为最大限度减少气候变化的不利影响、利用气候变化的有利方面,未来生态系统脆弱性评价亟需改善评价方法、减少不确定性、提高气候变化脆弱性评价的全面性和客观性,并加强人类活动对自然生态系统脆弱性影响的评价研究。[结论]该研究为建立应对气候适应性管理新模式,实现我国北方草原区的生态-社会-经济的可持续发展提供了理论支撑。     

我国气候与农业的可持续发展

在气候变化的大背景下,全球范围异常气候出现的概率将大大增加,这种气候变化对农业可持续发展具有重要影响,尤其是极端天气现象的增多,导致世界粮食生产的不稳定.     

气候智慧型农业及其对我国农业发展的启示

每一种农业类型均有其特定的时代意义,并诠释了其所处发展阶段面临的主要挑战与机遇。在全球气候变化大环境下,如何协调温室气体排放与农业生产力之间的关系,以实现减缓气候变化、保障粮食安全、提高农民收入,是本世纪全世界面临的理论与技术难题。在联合国粮食及农业组织的倡导下,气候智慧型农业正成为全球农业发展应对气候变化的新方法。在简述世界气候智慧型农业发展现状和实践的基础上,提出了我国气候智慧型农业健康发展的方向和对策,以期为我国农业应对气候变化,尤其是农业温室气体减排与气候变化公约履约等工作提供参考和借鉴。     

陕西省清涧县农业对生态脆弱性的适应性行为研究

农业是国民经济发展的基础,加强农业对生态脆弱性的适应性行为研究对区域发展生态农业、制定农业可持续发展政策具有重要的现实意义。利用熵值法,以陕西省清涧县为研究对象,从农业环境敏感性、生产投入稳定性和社会经济适应性3个方面探讨分析了2001-2014年农业对生态脆弱性的适应性行为。结果表明:陕西省清涧县农业环境敏感性整体上呈现出波动上升的趋势;生产投入稳定性呈现钟摆震荡并逐渐下降的趋势;社会经济对农业生产的投入使其不断适应区域农业生产环境的变化过程;陕西省清涧县农业对生态脆弱性的适应性行为主要表现在农业环境敏感性、生产投入稳定性和社会经济适应性3个子系统变化而引发适应性行为发生相应变化的过程。     

Overview of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in China's Agriculture

The purpose of this paper is to document the likely impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers.The review of literature shows that climate change will have a significant impact on agriculture,primarily through its effect on crop yields.The extent of predicted impacts highly depends on the crop,the CO2 fertilization effect assumption and adaptation abilities.Market response to the production shocks resulting from climate change will lessen the impacts on agricultural production predicted by natural scientists.On adaptation,the government’s major efforts have been in the developing new technologies,reforming extension system and enhancing institutional capacity.Farmers do adapt to climate change,but their adaptation measures cannot fully offset the negative impacts of climate change.The paper concludes and makes implications for future studies.     

气候变化对中国农业的影响

从种植制度、作物生产潜力、作物产量、气象灾害以及病虫害等方面阐述了气候变化对中国农业的影响．分析了应对气候变化的对策,并对未来研究作出展望。     

Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptive Strategies in China

China is the world’s most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, China’s role in climate change has received a great deal of attention, whereas the impact of climate change on China has been largely ignored. Studies on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation strategies are increasingly becoming major areas of scientific concern. However, the clear warming that has been sounded in China in recent decades has not been matched with a clear assessment of the impact of climate change on China’s water resources and agriculture. In the present study, we review observations on climate change, hydrology, and agriculture in China and relate these observations to likely future changes. We also analyse the adaptive strategies in China’s agriculture.     

Financing Sustainable Agriculture Under Climate Change

Agriculture is facing great challenge in meeting global food security and is expected to face even greater challenge under climate change. The overall goal of this paper is to examine how finance can be used to achieve the joint objectives of development, mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in agriculture in developing world based on literature review. The results show that agriculture is much under invested and foreign aid also has not increased appropriately to assist developing countries to maintain sustainable agriculture under climate change. There are a wide range of areas in mitigation of and adaptation to climate change that need substantial investment. Major areas and successful cases mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in agriculture that have worked in developing countries are examined. A list of areas that have worked, could work and be scaled up or transferred is identified and discussed. This study concludes that mainstreaming agricultural mitigation and adaptation into agricultural development programs, enhancing local capacity, and considering different stakeholders＇ needs are major experiences for successfully financing sustainable agriculture under climate change.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia

Asian agriculture is responsible for two thirds of global agricultural GDP. There have been numerous studies exploring the impact of climate change on crops in specific locations in Asia but no study has yet analyzed crops across the entire continent. This study relies on a Ricardian study of China that estimated climate coefficients for Chinese crops. These coefficients are then used to interpolate potential climate damages across the continent. With carbon fertilization, the model predicts small aggregate effects with a 1.5℃ warming but damages of about USS84 billion with 3℃ warming. India is predicted to be especially vulnerable.     

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture

Mitigation and adaptation are two principle strategies for managing human-induced climate change. Agriculture plays a duet role in climate change. It has been a major source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. It is also one of the sectors most vulnerable to the risks and impacts of global climate change. This paper first indentified the mitigative and adaptative options and potential in agriculture, then addressed the integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation and its benefits for agriculture. Finally, it discussed the implications to Chinese agriculture in dealing with the global climate change.     

作物需水量与灌溉农业、气候变化的关系

本文论述发展灌溉农业的重要性和发展途径,把作物需水量的规律作为灌溉农业的科学依据,而作物需水量又受控于气候条件,特别是受人为气候变化的影响,需要引起重视。     

吉尔吉斯斯坦农业应对气候变化的发展研究

[目的]进一步了解吉尔吉斯斯坦的自然环境、气候变化、农业生产等发展现状.[方法]对吉尔吉斯斯坦的气候、土地、土壤、农业等状况进行全面的实地调研和各州农业大学的考察学习,并与吉尔吉斯斯坦气候、土壤、土地利用、农业等方面的专家进行深入交流.[结果]对吉尔吉斯斯坦在气候变化趋势下,农业发展过程中遇到问题提出指导意见.[结论]为吉尔吉斯斯坦需重点开展的农业合作领域和发展提出建议.     

吉林市冬季气候变化对设施农业的影响

利用吉林市气象台的气象观测资料建立时间序列,采用数理统计、趋势相关分析和MannKendall突变检验,对吉林的气温、降水和日照年序列进行了分析,以揭示吉林气候变化特征及其突变事实。结果表明,近57年来因气候变暖,吉林市冬季温度升高,气候要素变化稳定性较差。冬季气温升高、日照减少、降水量增加、连续阴雨天数增多等气象要素不稳定变化是吉林冬季气候特点,这种气候特点对设施农业影响较大。