Using indicators of deforestation and land-use dynamics to support conservation strategies: A case study of central Rondônia,Brazil

In Rondônia State, Brazil, settlement processes have cleared 68,000 km² of tropical forests since the 1970s. The intensity of deforestation has differed by region depending on driving factors like roads and economic activities. Different histories of land-use activities and rates of change have resulted in mosaics of forest patches embedded in an agricultural matrix. Yet, most assessments of deforestation and its effects on vegetation, soil and water typically focus on landscape patterns of current conditions, yet historical deforestation dynamics can influence current conditions strongly. Here, we develop and describe the use of four land-use dynamic indicators to capture historical land-use changes of catchments and to measure the rate of deforestation (annual deforestation rate), forest regeneration level (secondary forest mean proportion), time since disturbance (mean time since deforestation) and deforestation profile (deforestation profile curvature). We used the proposed indices to analyze a watershed located in central Rondônia. Landsat TM and ETM+ images were used to produce historical land-use maps of the last 18 years, each even year from 1984 to 2002 for 20 catchments. We found that the land-use dynamics indicators are able to distinguish catchments with different land-use change profiles. Four categories of historical land-use were identified: old and dominant pasture cover on small properties, recent deforestation and dominance of secondary growth, old extensive pastures and large forest remnants and, recent deforestation, pasture and large forest remnants. Knowing historical deforestation processes is important to develop appropriate conservation strategies and define priorities and actions for conserving forests currently under deforestation.     

岷江上游景观格局变化研究(英文)

岷江上游地区位于青藏高原向四川盆地的过渡地段,其源头到都江堰市,包括汶川县、茂县、理县、黑水县和松潘县五个县。它是四川省乃至全国的一个重要的林区。在过去的几十年里,其景观结构发生了重要的变化。本文应用3S 技术研究了该区在1986 年到2000 年之间的景观变化情况。该区的景观被划分为10 个景观生态类型,即耕地、有林地、灌木林地、经济林、草地、居民用地、河流、湖泊、沼泽和未利用地。研究结果表明,在岷江上游地区林地和草地是该区主要的景观类型,约占全区面积的91%,景观类型之间的变化主要发生在有林地、灌木林地、草地、耕地、居民用地和经济林之间,并且有林地面积从51.17%下降到47.56%。分析结果表明,岷江上游地区在过去的几十年里其景观的破碎化在加剧。图1表2 参20。     

Deforestation in a Complex Landscape

Abstract

Deforestation is often the primary threat to conservation goals in tropical countries. However, accessing the remote locations in which most remaining forests of conservation value occur makes it difficult to quantify deforestation trends and to galvanize preventive action. Using remotely sensed images we were able to quantify rates of forest loss in La Amistad Biosphere Reserve, Panama. Annual deforestation rates were low between 1987 and 1998 at 0.05% but increased nearly 12-fold between 1998 and 2001 to 0.6%. Net forest loss was 0.56% between 1987 and 1998 and 2.34% between 1998 and 2001. Deforestation rates differed significantly between protected areas. Protected areas on the Caribbean side of the Biosphere Reserve experienced greater levels of deforestation than those on the Pacific, even though both absolute and percent forest cover are higher on the Caribbean. Most forest conversion was for cattle pasture and an area of industrial cattle ranching was identified within the Palo Seco and PILA protected areas as a priority for enforcement activities. Forest conversion to pasture was highly correlated with proximity to roads, rivers, and villages (p < 0.001). The spatial scale of correlation varied between feature types, suggesting a greater area of impact from roads and towns versus rivers. The acceleration of forest conversion from 1998 to 2001 confirms the negative ecological impact of the recent increase in population and development pressure in this previously isolated region.     

Adaptive cluster sampling for estimation of deforestation rates

National estimates of deforestation rates may be based on a survey. Precise estimation requires an efficient design. When deforestation rates are low (<1%) large sample sizes are required with traditional sampling designs to meet a precision target. This study explores the efficiency of adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) for this estimation problem. The efficiency is assessed by simulated ACS sampling from 18,200 × 200 km populations with 78–10,742 deforestation polygons (DFP) of different shape and size and average 10-year deforestation rates between 0.2% and 1.0%. Each population is composed of four million square 1 ha population units (PU) in a regular grid. Relative root mean square errors (RMSE) of ACS were, depending on sample size, 30–50% lower than comparable errors with simple random sampling (SRS) designs. ACS achieves this advantage by adaptively adding PUs to an initial SRS sample of size n. Realized ACS sample sizes were, on average, twice the nominal size (n). Three measures of ACS efficiency indicated that the costs of adaptively increasing the sample size are critical for the effectiveness of ACS. Population effects were manifest in all estimators. Estimates of the abundance, size, and shape of DFPs will allow a prediction of these effects. Populations dominated by a few large DFPs were clearly unsuited for ACS. The performance of ACS relative to that of SRS was similar across plot sizes of 1, 10, and 40 ha. The general conclusion of this study is that the lower RMSE of ACS remains attractive when the average cost of adaptively adding a PU to the initial sample is low relative to the average cost of sampling a PU at random.     

Factors influencing the loss of forest cover in bangladesh: An analysis from socioeconomic and demographic perspectives

Some studies have attributed forest shrinkage to population growth, economic development, conversion of forest land to agricultural use and harvesting of trees for timber and fuelwood. But the statistical support for these hypotheses is not strong. This paper attempts to test the above hypotheses statistically in the case of Bangladesh. Factor analysis extracted 4 important factors—(a) exploitation of forests for timber, fuelwood, tea, and shrimp production, (b) demographic pressure in agriculture, (c) economic development, and (d) expansion of crop lands—as causes of deforestation. The statistical test supports the hypotheses that the exploitation of forests for timber, fuelwood, tea and shrimp production, and conversion of forests to crop lands have a negative influence on forest cover. Economic development and demographic pressure in agriculture are also negatively correlated with forest cover. Results of regression analysis show the conversion of forests to agricultural land is the most important cause of deforestation. Other important causes, in order of their relative importance, are the relative price of forest products, population growth, economic development, demographic pressure in agriculture, increasing production of shrimps, export of tea and shrimps, increasing production of timber and fuelwood, and expansion of tea lands. The statistical tests support the above relationships.     

Spatial Modeling of Tropical Deforestation Using Socioeconomic and Biophysical Data

Tropical forests are disappearing at an alarming rate. In Central America, a hectare of forest is cleared for agriculture every 5 min. This study was conducted in a forested 4,000 ha watershed of central Honduras to find deforestation causes based on socio-economic characteristics of population. First, a multitemporal analysis of Landsat TM imagery was conducted to determine deforestation rates and agricultural–forest boundaries. A GIS buffer procedure allowed determining which households were at the deforestation front and which households were located at the rest of the area (control). GIS techniques were used to extract biophysical information such as slope, elevation, land cover, temperature, precipitation, etc. Then, we set up a data base with more than 50 socioeconomic variables (level of education, income, children per family, major economic activity, use of conservation practices, etc.). Around 500 households, distributed all over the watershed, were visited, interviewed and GPS-located. A multivariate statistical analysis allowed an exploratory analysis to eliminate non useful and redundant variables and then to determine what variables appear to be important predictors of deforestation behavior among rural families. A resulting logistic regression model showed that household with lower annual income heads and with less use of conservation practices were more statistically prone to clear the forest (α = 0.001). The study uncovered the complexity of this problem and confirmed the need of using GIS–remote sensing techniques to combine socioeconomic and environmental data in several time–space dimensions to find the causes and trends of tropical deforestation.     

Natural disasters and economic development drive forest dynamics and transition in China

China has been implementing the world's most ambitious afforestation and forest conservation programs and undergoing rapid forest expansion since 1990s, thus, understanding the forest dynamics in China has global implications for sustainable forest management. Through analyzing forest area, biomass dynamics, and factors influencing deforestation and forest restoration, we found that the natural disasters and economic development drove forest dynamics and transition in China. The growth of the economy and population drove up demand for forest products, facilitating deforestation. The booming economy also boosted government's investment in forest restoration and conservation programs. Natural disasters damaged and frequently destroyed forests, but they also served as stimuli for the authorities to adopt remedy forestry policies and programs that ultimately led to forest increase. Nationwide, increasing peaks of annual afforestation were observed in the late 1950s, early 1980s, and early 2000s, and the newly increased area closed for forest restoration reached the peak in 1998. All these peaks were closely associated with peaks of natural disasters (i.e., floods, drought, and dust storm events). Based on the dynamics of forest area, biomass and forest consumption over the past 40 years, forest transition occurred during the late 1980s to the early 1990s, and it also strengthened the carbon (C) sink function of forests in China (with an increasing rate of 0.137 Pg C yr.⁻¹ during 1994–2008). Overall, our study highlighted the influences of natural disasters and economic development on the forestry policies and forest C dynamics in the newly industrialized country.     

Analyzing Deforestation

Abstract

Deforestation is a complex and a dynamic process. Conventionally, deforestation has been analyzed on a factor by factor level, using linear and static approaches that ignored the feedback mechanisms. This paper investigated the problem of deforestation at a systems level and analyzed the process through a systems dynamic language to overcome these limitations. A case study of deforestation in India is discussed to illustrate the use of a simple systems dynamic model. The model highlights the fact that current policies have narrowly focused on the legally mapped area of forest land while overlooking the rapid erosion of biomass from these same forest lands. The model forecasts the scenario for India under optimistic assumptions where population, the fraction of forest encroached, the forest productivity, and the total forest biomass removal all remain at current levels. Despite these optimistic assumptions, the model forecasts that over the next ten to fifteen years both the total forest area and the forest biomass in India will rapidly decline.     

Regeneration ecology and population status of a critically endangered and endemic tree species （Ilex khasiana Purk.） in north-eastern India

Detailed studies on population structure and regeneration ecology of Ilex khasiana were carried out at five representative natural populations i.e. Mylliem (Population - I), Upper Shillong (Population - II), Shillong Peak (Population - III), Laitkor (Population - IV) and Nongpiyur (Population - V) to probe into the responsible affecting factors for its population structure and regeneration ability in these populations. Experimental observation under three controlled light conditions (full sunlight (100%), intermediate sunlight (50%) and low sunlight (30%)) showed that the growth status and survival rates of seedlings under intermediate and low light were better than those under the high light condition. The density-diameter distribution in population of adult trees (≥5cm dbh) exhibited a typical character of a regenerating population. A higher seedling mortality rate in natural populations of I. khasiana was most probably due to increase in light intensity following vegetation destruction and other anthropogenic disturbances that cause opening of forest canopy. The findings of the present study would be of immense value in formulating appropriate conservation measures for the species.     

Generational growth rate estimates of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Diabrotica virgifera virgifera</Emphasis> populations (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Modelling population dynamics of the maize pest Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte (western corn rootworm; Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) requires knowledge on the growth rate (=net reproductive rate) of the species. We investigated the generational (=annual) growth rate of D. v. virgifera in isolated maize fields in southern Hungary and eastern Croatia over several years. The population densities of D. v. virgifera were assessed by absolute counts of emerging adults in 90 gauze cages per study field. Emergence ranged from 1.3 to 30.7 adults per m² in continuous maize field sections, and from 0.3 to 5.1 adults per m² in adjacent first-year maize sections. The annual growth rates of D. v. virgifera ranged from 0.5 to 13, and averaged in close to 4. These experimentally assessed growth rates could complement growth estimates in population dynamic models, particularly those for forecasting the population growth to economic thresholds or for estimating population build-ups after new introductions of this alien species in Europe. As an example, the determined growth rate was used to estimate that the first documented successful introduction of this species into Europe occurred between 1979 and 1984, which is 8–13 years before the detection of this species and its larval damage in maize fields near Belgrade, Serbia, in 1992.     

Regional Comparative Advantage,Location of Agriculture,and Deforestation in Brazil

ABSTRACT

This article highlights how deforestation is not only linked to economic processes within the Amazon, but also to economic forces in the rest of Brazil. In light of recent trends in Brazil's agricultural production inside and outside the Amazon, this article maintains that the growing importance of beef production in the Amazon relative to the rest of Brazil is likely to lead to further increases in deforestation. From 1991 to 2001 the Amazon's share of the Brazilian bovine herd increased from 15% to 25%—an average change of 1% per year. With the Brazilian herd size in 2003 estimated at 196 million head of cattle, the current rate of increase implies an increase of 1.96 million cattle per year in the Amazon. At Brazil's average stocking rate of 1.1 head of cattle per hectare, it means that an additional 18,000 km² of land are needed each year in the Amazon to account for this expansion. However, Brazil has abundant agricultural land outside the Amazon to meet increases in demand for beef. The difficulty lies in the comparative advantage of these other areas in producing soy and grains as opposed to livestock. I conclude that targeting resources toward specific agricultural development opportunities outside the Amazon—especially grain-fed beef— would be an effective way to reduce incentives to clear land in the Amazon.     

Individual growth, reproduction and population dynamics of Dioon merolae (Zamiaceae) under different leaf harvest histories in Central Chiapas, Mexico

Leaves of the long-lived Dioon merolae have been harvested intensively for decades (possibly for centuries) for ceremonial purposes by Zoque and mestizo groups inhabiting the Central Depression of Chiapas, Mexico. Over a period of four years, we evaluated vital rates (stem growth, leaf production, reproductive performance, and survival) and projected population growth rates in three populations (250 plants each, divided into eight size classes: new germinants, seedlings, saplings (S1, S2), and adults, A1-A4) with different leaf harvesting histories: non-defoliated by humans for at least 55 years (or very old harvest), defoliated annually until 15 years ago (recovering from harvest), and defoliated annually for at least the past 25 years (currently being harvested intensely). Population structure was affected by leaf harvest history. Stem growth was negatively affected by the annual harvest of leaves in size classes from seedlings up to A4 (ANOVA, P < 0.003); fewer leaves were produced by seedlings, saplings and adults at the annually harvested site (ANOVA, P < 0.027). Survival was high at all sites across all size classes; in the annually harvested site, A4 plants showed a decrease in survival (one dead out of four plants). Sex ratio of adults that produced cones during the four years of study was 61% males to 39% females. At the non-defoliated site, adult classes A2 and A4 produced >80% of the cones; no cones were produced by the A3 and A4 adult size classes at the annually harvested site. Asymptotic estimates of population growth indicated growing populations (λ ≥ 1); the highest mean values of finite population growth rate were obtained in the non-harvested site (λ = 1.0202). Elasticity analysis with population projection matrices indicated that stasis (L, 9-38%) was the component that most contributed to λ, followed by growth (G, 1.2-2.9%), and fecundity (F, 0.2-1.1%). We observed detrimental effects on several vital rates due to continued long-term defoliation, although population growth parameters do not currently suggest a decreased trend as a result of the annual harvest of leaves. The duration of this study of a very long-lived plant species suggests caution when setting levels and frequency of leaf harvest. The results help pinpoint practical recommendations that could be implemented in a sustainable management plan for this species, particularly to increase seed production in the annually harvested site, and recruitment of new germinants and seedlings at all sites. However, sound practices will need to consider the interests of involved stakeholders (landowners, pilgrims, conservation organizations and authorities) to effectively reduce anthropogenic pressure on this endangered species.     

Host resistance and influence of tuber surface on larval performance of potato tuberworm (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)

Potato tuberworm (PTW), Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), is one of the most important pests of potatoes in tropic and subtropic regions. Previous studies suggested that tuber periderm may limit larval penetration and establishment of PTW. Short term influence of parental host plant acclimatization, influence of tuber dormancy and influence of tuber periderm (the outer cork layer of tubers) on aspects of PTW biology were investigated on tubers of a susceptible commercial potato cultivar, cv. Allegany (Solanum tuberosum L.), and a resistant hybrid potato clone, Q174-2 (S. tuberosum × S. berthaultii Hawkes). Short-term parental host plant acclimatization did not affect numbers of PTW larvae on resistant and susceptible tubers. Numbers of larvae produced on tubers of Q174-2, and Allegany, were similar although larval weight was less on Q174-2 than on Allegany. Larval production increased with tuber age on both susceptible and resistant potato clones, suggesting that bud sprouts may enhance fitness by providing food and shelter for first instars prior to tuber entry. Removal of tuber periderm led to a significant increase in larval survival on Allegany and Q174-2, although proportional survival on Allegany and Q174-2 was similar to that on intact tubers, suggesting the involvement of internal rather than external periderm factors in tuber resistance of Q174-2. Weights of larvae reared on Q174-2 were consistently less than those of larvae reared on susceptible potato tubers in both intact and peeled tuber assays. Although the expression of periderm-mediated tuber resistance declines with tuber age, such resistance could significantly reduce preharvest field infestations by PTW and constitute an important component of sustainable PTW management, particularly for fresh market crops and for those potato crops stored for several months or less in the absence of refrigeration.     

利用土地生产模型模拟尼泊尔的森林破坏(英文)

本文利用土地生产模型基于人口增长率、国民生产总值增长率和农业生产率的增长率来 预测尼泊尔国家,Chitwan地区,Jutpani村的森林破坏的面积与趋势。在研究中如果上述各项 增长率保持目前水平不变，通过土地生产模型的模拟，研究区域的所有林业用地将以每年24 %的速率在2038年全部变为农业用地；假设自给作物生产率每年按1%增长，经济作物按2%增 长，则每年林业用地转换为农业用地的速率降低为17%，但到2038年可能只留有124公顷的森 林。因此农业生产率是影响森林破坏的主要因素，加强农业管理极为重要。     

不同光质对三叶崖爬藤生长及有效成分含量的影响

[目的]研究不同光质处理下三叶崖爬藤生长及有效成分含量变化,以确定适宜三叶崖爬藤生长的最适光质条件。[方法]以2年生三叶崖爬藤为材料,用不同颜色的滤光膜(红色、黄色、绿色、蓝色和白色)进行光质处理,测定三叶崖爬藤叶片的叶形指标、生理指标、生物量及块茎中总黄酮含量。[结果]表明:红光处理下的三叶崖爬藤在叶形指标、生理指标、生物量和总黄酮含量上均得到改善,而其余光质处理结果仅对其中某一指标有所改善。[结论]红光处理下的三叶崖爬藤块茎的产量和质量均较佳,在三叶崖爬藤人工栽培中可以利用红光提高其产量及有效成分含量。     

生长抑制剂对大叶黄杨形态及光合作用的影响

目的]探究抑制剂对大叶黄杨生长的抑制作用以及对其叶片形态和光合作用的影响,为灌木绿篱的化学修剪提供技术指导。[方法]在北京林业大学林场苗圃采用3种生长抑制剂(多效唑(PP_(333))、三碘苯甲酸(TIBA)以及脱落酸(ABA))对密植成绿篱状的1年生大叶黄杨扦插苗进行叶面喷施,对其生长、叶片形态及光合作用等指标进行测定。[结果]3种抑制剂均有矮化植株、抑制新梢生长的作用,矮化效果最佳、抑制作用最强的为PP_(333),且高浓度PP_(333)对于高生长的抑制作用持效性较长。叶宽、叶厚以及叶面积在短期PP_(333)处理下高于对照。PP_(333)能提高大叶黄杨净光合速率,主要通过增加叶厚、气孔导度、叶肉导度及叶绿素含量来实现,并且PP_(333)使蒸腾速率提高的同时降低了水分利用效率。TIBA有显著减小叶长、叶宽的作用,但能使叶厚增加,且随浓度的增加作用效果增强,主要通过减小叶面积,降低叶肉导度、气孔导度、胞间CO_2浓度及叶绿素含量来降低净光合速率。ABA能增加叶面积(10 mg·L~(-1)处理除外)、叶长以及减小叶片厚度,通过抑制气孔导度、叶肉导度、叶绿素含量降低净光合速率。TI-BA及ABA均通过降低蒸腾速率,使水分利用效率提高。[结论]3种抑制剂均有矮化植株、抑制新梢生长的作用,并且影响叶片发育,进而影响叶片光合作用,且800 mg·L~(-1)的多效唑对大叶黄杨具有较好的正向作用。     

云龙天池云南松自然种群分布格局分析

[目的]对云南松种群年龄结构和空间分布格局的变化以及不同生长阶段个体的空间分布格局及空间关联性进行了研究,从空间格局角度深入认识云南松林群落结构和分布格局及其形成的内在机制。[方法]基于云南省云龙县天池自然保护区云南松天然林的样地调查数据,基于云南松的种群径级结构,采用Ripley’s L函数点格局方法,对云南松自然种群的龄级结构、空间分布格局及其不同生长阶段空间关联性进行了系统分析。[结果]云南松自然种群径级和高度级结构完整,分布呈倒"J"型;云南松自然种群整体上在0 40 m的空间尺度上呈"聚集-随机"的分布格局;云南松自然种群个体在幼树和小树阶段,在较大的尺度上呈聚集分布,随着尺度的增加转变为随机分布,而在中树阶段完全呈聚集分布,随着龄级的递增,大树阶段的空间分布格局呈随机分布;云南松自然种群不同生长阶段个体间空间关联在所有尺度上基本都呈显著正相关。[结论]云南松自然种群结构属增长型种群;云南松自然种群不同生长阶段的个体呈现不同的分布格局,表现出强烈的空间动态特性;云南松种群各生长阶段间正向的关系,有利于种群的维持。     

Landscape pattern and fragmentation of natural secondary forests in the eastern mountainous region, northeast China: A case study of Mao'ershan forests in Heilongjiang Province

Mao'ershan region is a representative natural secondary forested region in the eastern mountainous region, northeast of China. Under the support of ARC/INFO and GIS technology, the landscape shape and fragment indices of Mao'ershan experimental plantation were studied by combining the forest type map (1∶10000), which was drawn from the aerial photographs (1999), field investigation (1999) and soil utilized map (1∶10000). The results showed that the shape index and shape fragment index of natural landscape were higher than those of artificial landscapes and landscape patch fragment index depended on the number of patches. The natural forest had complex shape, suffering little jamming, and its shape index was higher than that of artificial forest. The manual controlled landscape (e.g. nursery, cropland and cutting blank) had regular shape, and its shape index was smaller. The fragment index of patches in natural forest was higher than that of artificial forest. The soft broad-leaved had the highest fragment index of patch amount. Foundation item: This paper was supported by National Key Technologies P&D Program of China during the 10^th Five-Year Plan Period (2002BA515B040). Biography: LI Shu-juan (1977-), female, Lecturer in Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, P. R. China. Responsible editor: Zhu Hong     

全球气候变暖与热带林业的对策

本文介绍了全球热带林消失率、温室气体的释放量及它在整个环境污染中所占比例。作者在国际研讨会上提出,最合理的解决方案是控制人口、发展经济、合理而有效地利用森林资源。     

Barriers to Sustainable Forestry in Central America and Promising Initiatives to Overcome Them

Summary

Over the past decades, Central America has suffered some of the highest deforestation rates worldwide. Vast tracts of forest have been converted to agriculture and pasture, encouraged by ill-designed government policies and perverse incentives. Recently, however, progress has been made toward more sustainable use of forest resources by adjusting forest policies, decentralizing forest administration, and providing conducive incentives through environmental service payments and forest certification. Valuable forest management experiences have been gained by indigenous and peasant communities. Community forestry in Central America is being increasingly recognized by national governments. Examples include the community concessions in Peten, Guatemala, and community-based forest operations in Honduras and Nicaragua. Stakeholder networks have been established that strengthen horizontal and vertical alliances among wood producers and manufacturers and that help promote both community development and forest conservation. However, illegal logging, poor law enforcement, and lack of economic viability of forest management involving nontraditional species still provide barriers to the sustainable management of tropical broadleaved forests in the region. Future challenges include improved governance through decentralized forest administration, private sector involvement, and third-party certification. To improve traceability and value adding, development of integrated supply chains of forest and wood products is recommended.