Recent sea-level contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

After a century of polar exploration, the past decade of satellite measurements has painted an altogether new picture of how Earth's ice sheets are changing. As global temperatures have risen, so have rates of snowfall, ice melting, and glacier flow. Although the balance between these opposing processes has varied considerably on a regional scale, data show that Antarctica and Greenland are each losing mass overall. Our best estimate of their combined imbalance is about 125 gigatons per year of ice, enough to raise sea level by 0.35 millimeters per year. This is only a modest contribution to the present rate of sea-level rise of 3.0 millimeters per year. However, much of the loss from Antarctica and Greenland is the result of the flow of ice to the ocean from ice streams and glaciers, which has accelerated over the past decade. In both continents, there are suspected triggers for the accelerated ice discharge-surface and ocean warming, respectively-and, over the course of the 21st century, these processes could rapidly counteract the snowfall gains predicted by present coupled climate models.     

Elevation change of the southern greenland ice sheet

Seasat and Geosat satellite altimeter measurements for the Greenland ice sheet (south of 72 degreesN latitude) show that surface elevations above 2000 meters increased at an average rate of only 1. 5 +/- 0.5 centimeters per year from 1978 to 1988. In contrast, elevation changes varied regionally from -15 to +18 centimeters per year, seasonally by +/-15 centimeters, and interannually by +/-8 centimeters. The average growth rate is too small to determine if the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing a long-term change due to a warmer polar climate.     

Recent Greenland ice mass loss by drainage system from satellite gravity observations

Mass changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet resolved by drainage system regions were derived from a local mass concentration analysis of NASA-Deutsches Zentrum für Luftund Raumfahrt Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE mission) observations. From 2003 to 2005, the ice sheet lost 101 +/- 16 gigaton/year, with a gain of 54 gigaton/year above 2000 meters and a loss of 155 gigaton/year at lower elevations. The lower elevations show a large seasonal cycle, with mass losses during summer melting followed by gains from fall through spring. The overall rate of loss reflects a considerable change in trend (-113 +/- 17 gigaton/year) from a near balance during the 1990s but is smaller than some other recent estimates.     

Greenland Ice Sheet: High-Elevation Balance and Peripheral Thinning

Aircraft laser-altimeter surveys over northern Greenland in 1994 and 1999 have been coupled with previously reported data from southern Greenland to analyze the recent mass-balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Above 2000 meters elevation, the ice sheet is in balance on average but has some regions of local thickening or thinning. Thinning predominates at lower elevations, with rates exceeding 1 meter per year close to the coast. Interpolation of our results between flight lines indicates a net loss of about 51 cubic kilometers of ice per year from the entire ice sheet, sufficient to raise sea level by 0.13 millimeter per year-approximately 7% of the observed rise.     

Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Using satellite radar interferometry observations of Greenland, we detected widespread glacier acceleration below 66 degrees north between 1996 and 2000, which rapidly expanded to 70 degrees north in 2005. Accelerated ice discharge in the west and particularly in the east doubled the ice sheet mass deficit in the last decade from 90 to 220 cubic kilometers per year. As more glaciers accelerate farther north, the contribution of Greenland to sea-level rise will continue to increase.     

Measurements of time-variable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica

Using measurements of time-variable gravity from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites, we determined mass variations of the Antarctic ice sheet during 2002-2005. We found that the mass of the ice sheet decreased significantly, at a rate of 152 +/- 80 cubic kilometers of ice per year, which is equivalent to 0.4 +/- 0.2 millimeters of global sea-level rise per year. Most of this mass loss came from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.     

Accelerated sea-level rise from West Antarctica

Recent aircraft and satellite laser altimeter surveys of the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica show that local glaciers are discharging about 250 cubic kilometers of ice per year to the ocean, almost 60% more than is accumulated within their catchment basins. This discharge is sufficient to raise sea level by more than 0.2 millimeters per year. Glacier thinning rates near the coast during 2002-2003 are much larger than those observed during the 1990s. Most of these glaciers flow into floating ice shelves over bedrock up to hundreds of meters deeper than previous estimates, providing exit routes for ice from further inland if ice-sheet collapse is under way.     

Growth of greenland ice sheet: measurement

Measurements of ice-sheet elevation change by satellite altimetry show that the Greenland surface elevation south of 72 degrees north latitude is increasing. The vertical velocity of the surface is 0.20 +/- 0.06 meters per year from measured changes in surface elevations at 5906 intersections between Geosat paths in 1985 and Seasat in 1978, and 0.28 +/- 0.02 meters per year from 256,694 intersections of Geosat paths during a 548-day period of 1985 to 1986.     

Amalthea's density is less than that of water

Radio Doppler data from the Galileo spacecraft's encounter with Amalthea, one of Jupiter's small inner moons, on 5 November 2002 yield a mass of (2.08 +/- 0.15) x 10(18) kilograms. Images of Amalthea from two Voyager spacecraft in 1979 and Galileo imaging between November 1996 and June 1997 yield a volume of (2.43 +/- 0.22) x 10(6) cubic kilometers. The satellite thus has a density of 857 +/- 99 kilograms per cubic meter. We suggest that Amalthea is porous and composed of water ice, as well as rocky material, and thus formed in a cold region of the solar system, possibly not at its present location near Jupiter.     

Amorphous ice: density and reflectivity

Amorphous ice prepared under a wide range of conditions has a density, determined from its buoyancy in liquid oxygen, of 0.94+/-0.02 gram per cubic centimeter, the same as that of ordinary hexagonal ice, with no indication of the glassy superdense ice (2.32 grams per cubic centimeter) reported recently. The diffuse reflectivity shows a small increase as the ice crystallizes at 153 degrees K. This increase is followed by a much larger increase (probably associated with crystal growth) as the sample warms, and the reflectivity reaches a maximum well below the melting temperature. Although the ice deposits appear translucent, the specular reflectivity is low, thus indicating a dull rather than a glassy surface.     

Larsen ice shelf has progressively thinned

The retreat and collapse of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves in tandem with a regional atmospheric warming has fueled speculation as to how these events may be related. Satellite radar altimeter measurements show that between 1992 and 2001 the Larsen Ice Shelf lowered by up to 0.27 +/- 0.11 meters per year. The lowering is explained by increased summer melt-water and the loss of basal ice through melting. Enhanced ocean-driven melting may provide a simple link between regional climate warming and the successive disintegration of sections of the Larsen Ice Shelf.     

Rapid thinning of parts of the southern greenland ice sheet

Aircraft laser-altimeter surveys over southern Greenland in 1993 and 1998 show three areas of thickening by more than 10 centimeters per year in the southern part of the region and large areas of thinning, particularly in the east. Above 2000 meters elevation the ice sheet is in balance but thinning predominates at lower elevations, with rates exceeding 1 meter per year on east coast outlet glaciers. These high thinning rates occur at different latitudes and at elevations up to 1500 meters, which suggests that they are caused by increased rates of creep thinning rather than by excessive melting. Taken as a whole, the surveyed region is in negative balance.     

Aluminum-26 and beryllium-10 in greenland ice

Activities of beryllium-10 and aluminum-26 dissolved in 200-year-old Greenland ice were found to be 18.4 (+ 8.4, - 4.8) x 10(-6) and 3.2 +/- 0.9 x 10(-7) disintegration per minute per liter, respectively. From these values and the precipitation rate (30 milliliters of water per square centimeter per year), the production rates of these isotopes are calculated to be 3.6 (+ 1.6, - 0.9) x 10(-2) and 1.7 +/- 0.5 x 10(-4) atom per second * square centimeter. These rates agree with the rates calculated for the production of these isotopes by cosmic rays in the atmosphere. Probably all the Al(26) in the ice is accounted for by such atmospheric production; however, an upper limit for the influx of cosmic dust bearing aluminum-26 is calculated at 3.2 x 10(5) tons per year for Earth. Only upper limits could be found for Al(26) and Be(10) in the undissolved particulate matter in the ice; their addition to the activities in the dissolved material leaves our conclusions unchanged.     

Recent ice-sheet growth in the interior of Greenland

A continuous data set of Greenland Ice Sheet altimeter height from European Remote Sensing satellites (ERS-1 and ERS-2), 1992 to 2003, has been analyzed. An increase of 6.4 +/- 0.2 centimeters per year (cm/year) is found in the vast interior areas above 1500 meters, in contrast to previous reports of high-elevation balance. Below 1500 meters, the elevation-change rate is -2.0 +/- 0.9 cm/year, in qualitative agreement with reported thinning in the ice-sheet margins. Averaged over the study area, the increase is 5.4 +/- 0.2 cm/year, or approximately 60 cm over 11 years, or approximately 54 cm when corrected for isostatic uplift. Winter elevation changes are shown to be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation.     

Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet at High Elevations

Comparison of ice discharge from higher elevation areas of the entire Greenland Ice Sheet with total snow accumulation gives estimates of ice thickening rates over the past few decades. On average, the region has been in balance, but with thickening of 21 centimeters per year in the southwest and thinning of 30 centimeters per year in the southeast. The north of the ice sheet shows less variability, with average thickening of 2 centimeters per year in the northeast and thinning of about 5 centimeters per year in the northwest. These results agree well with those from repeated altimeter surveys, except in the extreme south, where we find substantially higher rates of both thickening and thinning.     

Rapid eruption of the siberian traps flood basalts at the permo-triassic boundary

The Siberian Traps represent one of the most voluminous flood basalt provinces on Earth. Laser-heating (40)Ar/(39)Ar data indicate that the bulk of these basalts was erupted over an extremely short time interval (900,000 +/- 800,000 years) beginning at about 248 million years ago at mean eruption rates of greater than 1.3 cubic kilometers per year. Such rates are consistent with a mantle plume origin. Magmatism was not associated with significant lithospheric rifting; thus, mantle decompression resulting from rifting was probably not the primary cause of widespread melting. Inception of Siberian Traps volcanism coincided (within uncertainty) with a profound faunal mass extinction at the Permo-Triassic boundary 249 +/- 4 million years ago; these data thus leave open the question of a genetic relation between the two events.     

Triton's Geyser-Like Plumes: Discovery and Basic Characterization

At least four active geyser-like eruptions were discovered in Voyager 2 images of Triton, Neptune's large satellite. The two best documented eruptions occur as columns of dark material rising to an altitude of about 8 kilometers where dark clouds of material are left suspended to drift downwind over 100 kilometers. The radii of the rising columns appear to be in the range of several tens of meters to a kilometer. One model for the mechanism to drive the plumes involves heating of nitrogen ice in a subsurface greenhouse environment; nitrogen gas pressurized by the solar heating explosively vents to the surface carrying clouds of ice and dark partides into the atmosphere. A temperature increase of less than 4 kelvins above the ambient surface value of 38 +/- 3 kelvins is more than adequate to drive the plumes to an 8-kilometer altitude. The mass flux in the trailing clouds is estimated to consist of up to 10 kilograms of fine dark particles per second or twice as much nitrogen ice and perhaps several hundred or more kilograms of nitrogen gas per second. Each eruption may last a year or more, during which on the order of a tenth of a cubic kilometer of ice is sublimed.     

Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean

Synthesis of river-monitoring data reveals that the average annual discharge of fresh water from the six largest Eurasian rivers to the Arctic Ocean increased by 7% from 1936 to 1999. The average annual rate of increase was 2.0 +/- 0.7 cubic kilometers per year. Consequently, average annual discharge from the six rivers is now about 128 cubic kilometers per year greater than it was when routine measurements of discharge began. Discharge was correlated with changes in both the North Atlantic Oscillation and global mean surface air temperature. The observed large-scale change in freshwater flux has potentially important implications for ocean circulation and climate.     

Heat flux anomalies in Antarctica revealed by satellite magnetic data

The geothermal heat flux is an important factor in the dynamics of ice sheets; it affects the occurrence of subglacial lakes, the onset of ice streams, and mass losses from the ice sheet base. Because direct heat flux measurements in ice-covered regions are difficult to obtain, we developed a method that uses satellite magnetic data to estimate the heat flux underneath the Antarctic ice sheet. We found that the heat flux underneath the ice sheet varies from 40 to 185 megawatts per square meter and that areas of high heat flux coincide with known current volcanism and some areas known to have ice streams.     

Contribution of the Patagonia Icefields of South America to sea level rise

Digital elevation models of the Northern and Southern Patagonia Icefields of South America generated from the 2000 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission were compared with earlier cartography to estimate the volume change of the largest 63 glaciers. During the period 1968/1975-2000, these glaciers lost ice at a rate equivalent to a sea level rise of 0.042 +/- 0.002 millimeters per year. In the more recent years 1995-2000, average ice thinning rates have more than doubled to an equivalent sea level rise of 0.105 +/- 0.011 millimeters per year. The glaciers are thinning more quickly than can be explained by warmer air temperatures and decreased precipitation, and their contribution to sea level per unit area is larger than that of Alaska glaciers.