Modelling the impact of interventions on the dynamics in village poultry systems

There are many technical possibilities to improve free-range and backyard poultry keeping. Rural households, however, are not adopting these technologies widely. This paper presents a model approach for ex ante evaluation of interventions in village poultry systems. The dynamic deterministic computer model considers mortality, egg production, reproduction, offtake, and their interrelationships. In the base situation, the model reflects the behaviour of a relatively stable village poultry flock. The model was used to explore how interventions influence the dynamics of a village poultry flock. Over the simulated period of three years, NCD (Newcastle Disease) vaccination, daytime housing, supplementary feeding, and control of broodiness each had a positive effect on bird offtake, egg production, egg offtake, and flock size. Crossbreeding had a highly negative effect on these key variables. The impact of interventions is also related to the use of the available resources. Cost–benefit calculations for the Tigray region in Ethiopia and village poultry research sites in Kenya indicated that NCD vaccinations were economically most effective. Housing and crossbreeding had a highly negative impact on net returns. When applied with situation-specific input data, the model can be used in the first stages of research and development approaches to support decisions on priorities of projects in village poultry production.     

The effects of wealth on livestock dynamics among the Datoga pastoralists of Tanzania

Data on the dynamics of the cattle and small stock herds belonging to the Datoga are presented. Overall the Datoga are struggling to survive. They have been alienated from more fertile areas, and consequently they are poor and herd productivity is low. This is due to the low reproduction rate of cattle, and the high commercial offtake rate of both cattle and small stock. The high commercial offtake rate is driven by subsistence needs and most income is used to buy grain and veterinary products. However, there is considerable variation between households, and compared to poor households, wealthy households have a comparatively low offtake rate of livestock, in terms of both mortality and sales. Consequently, they are managing to retain their livestock holdings, or in a few cases to increase the size of their herds. However, wealthy households are in the minority, and the majority of households are caught in a declining cycle of poverty, and will eventually be forced to drop out of the pastoral system. ©     

A bio-economic model of small-ruminant production in the semi-arid tropics of the Northeast region of Brazil: Part 2—Linear programming applications and results

Survey data covering production systems for mixed farms in the Northeast region of Brazil has been synthesized within a linear programming (LP) framework. The resulting model contains activities covering the production of cattle, sheep and goats, and a vector of alternative cropping activities. Farm resources include two categories of grazing land, planted forages, family labour, two categories of hired labour, and working capital. The major livestock activities represented in the region were included as production options.Initial results did not discriminate between categories of available grazing resources. Therefore, cattle, by virtue of their higher dressing percentages and higher price per kilogram, were the optimal livestock species. A series of adjustments was then carried out to reflect types of feed resources and patterns of animal species selectivity. Optimal farm solutions for a representative traditional-production unit found objective function levels close to those found by farm surveys, but discrepancies between model results and the actual farm situations for sheep and goat activities. Model results excluded small-ruminant breeding activities because of the low net offtake at weaning levels assumed in the model. Data that became available after these initial model runs showed a higher net offtake level, and these revised coefficients resulted in optimal LP results very close to those actually found on farms.The model was then used to simulate the response of activities and farm economic performance to ‘good’ and ‘bad’ years defined by ± half standard deviation from mean annual levels of precipitation. Model results indicated much higher variability of farm income in response to weather than that found with changes in levels of technical efficiency of sheep and goat production.     

Simulated comparisons of breeding plans for beef production—Part 1: A dynamic model to evaluate the effect of mating plan on herd age structure and productivity

A computer program to simulate beef production is described. The model is based on the principles of industrial dynamics and constructed in the simulation language DYNAMO. This dynamic model is composed of subroutines that simulate herd structure for a cow herd and a production herd composed of calves from the cow herd. Additional subroutines model pre-weaning and post-weaning growth of the calves.The portion of the model that simulates the herd structure includes ten age classes of cow. The subroutine which models the portion of the herd between 2 and 9 years of age utilises twelve variables to describe the events that occur in the herd during the passage of a year. The age structure of the herd is influenced by the breeding system and the way in which the herd is managed.The production herd is modelled by sequential subroutines. These subroutines follow the number and growth of calves weaned from the cow herd until they are sold at 32, 52, 67 or 85 weeks of age. Mating plans utilising different breeds can be simulated in combination with various management options.     

Computer simulation of monitoring herd productivity under extensive conditions: Sampling error of herd size and offtake rate

Monitoring extensive pastorialist herds was simulated using a personal computer program designed to yield balance sheets for numbers and annual rates of births, mortalities, cullings and herd growth, as well as for herd structure in successive periods of weeks or months. Instead of calving rate, the program used frequency distributions of first parturition age and parturition interval, together with sterility rates, to generate individual reproduction. It took 15 years for herd size to become free from carry-over effects due to inherent herd history. Offtake rate seemed to be a convenient statistic for measuring productivity under the conditions of stable environment and herd policy. It was not auto-correlated and its sampling error followed binomial expectation. The standard error of annual offtake rate was large and, even with monitoring periods of as much as two years, some herds were three or four times as productive as others. A menu-driven program that can handle different animal species and various herd development policies without prior modification can be useful for testing hypotheses which would otherwise be difficult to treat mathematically. Practical monitoring schemes should maintain corresponding packages for routine purposes.     

A dynamic model for the simulation of cattle herd production systems: Part 1—General description and the effects of simulation techniques on model results

A computerised model to describe and predict cattle production for any herd size and time period and for a wide range of environments, was developed from a model published by Sanders & Cartwright (1979a, b).The dynamics of the model are based on the flow of energy from vegetative sources to animal products in a single-animal or cow-calf unit, so that the model is appropriate even for smallholder herds. A separate flow of numbers records the dynamically changing herd size and structure.Reproduction and mortality are linked to the nutritional and physiological status of each individual. Their occurrence is triggered stochastically to preserve the integer quality of the herd. In all other respects the model is deterministic.The simulated herd can be of any number, breed, sex and age composition. Breeds are distinguished by mature size, growth rate and milk production: they can be single, dual and/or triple purpose (dairy and/or beef and/or draught). Feeding management can be grazing, stall-feeding or a combination of the two. Routines are included which can simulate different types of management decisions and their repercussions. Functions for the quantification of the model were selected according to preset guidelines, generally following an investigation of conflicting hypotheses.There are eight different output options (tabular and graphical), representing various levels of model resolution.     

Simulation of swine herd population dynamics

A discrete stochastic simulation model of swine herd population dynamics is described. The model is homomorphic with the life cycle of hogs. Each animal is individually represented in the model and is tracked throughout its life in the production system. The example production system used was a 100-breeding sow, farrow-to-finish, high-investment, complete confinement system. The model was developed in a specialized discrete simulation language—GPSS. The model provides both the magnitude and the variability of annual production levels, feed consumption and other population statistics. The output of the herd dynamics model was used in a spread-sheet program for economic analysis. This program computes annual revenues, costs and rate of return to capital investment over the 10-year analysis period by using the discounted cash flow method. It provides both the average values and 95% confidence intervals of the annual income and the rate of return. The application of the model for analyzing the interrelationships of biological, physical, economic and management factors is demonstrated. Other applications for system design, management planning, facility scheduling and resource allocation are also described.     

Feed resources,livestock production and soil carbon dynamics in Teghane,Northern Highlands of Ethiopia

In the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia, integrated crop-livestock production within smallholder farms is the dominant form of agricultural production. Feed availability and quality are serious constraints to livestock production in Ethiopia in general, and in its Northern Highlands in particular. The objective of this study was to describe the relationship between feed availability and quality and live weight gain, milk and manure production and the soil C balance in Teghane, Northern Highlands of Ethiopia. The so-called JAVA model procedure, that essentially predicts metabolizable energy intake and animal production on the basis of feed quality and quantity, has been used and linked to a soil carbon balance. Forages were ranked according to their quality (on the basis of metabolizable energy intake by livestock) in descending order. Rations were formulated by stepwise including components of increasingly lower quality to calculate the trade-offs between feed quantity and quality. In the model, the soil C balance was described in relation to soil organic matter decomposition, C input from roots, grazing and/or harvesting losses, feed residues and manure. Moreover, an analysis of monetary values of live weight gain/loss, manure and draught power is included. The results of the model showed that mean daily live weight gain and milk production per TLU continuously increased with decreasing herd size, while total annual live weight gain reached a maximum (62 Mg) at the use of the 30% best feeds and a herd size of 630 TLU. Soil C balance at this level of feed use is negative and deteriorates with increasing feed use. The model estimated an optimum herd size of 926 TLU to attain the maximum combined monetary value of live weight gain, manure and draught power at 50% feed use. Actual herd size in the study area was 1506 TLU. Our results indicate that in areas where feeds of very different quality are available, maximum benefits from meat and/or milk production and soil C balance can be attained by selective utilization of the best quality feeds, through a storage and carry-over system.     

Development of a mathematical model to study the impacts of production and management policies on the herd dynamics and profitability of dairy goats

The reduction in goat milk production and the competitiveness of more profitable activities have increased the adoption of measures to enhance goat milk and meat around the world. A simulation model was built to evaluate the dynamics of a dairy goat herd under different scenarios of production. A System Dynamics approach was used to identify management policies that could affect the behaviour of the herd over 10 years of simulation using data from a dairy goat herd in Brazil. The impact of reproductive and mortality rates, one or two annual reproductive cycles on production, and economic health of dairy goats on changes in the herd dynamics were evaluated. Simulations indicated that small changes in reproduction and mortality rates and milk price can considerably affect the dynamics of the herd as well as the financial health of the production system. The interferences created to visualize the effects were not immediately realized because of intrinsic delays in the system. The comparison of models with one or two breeding seasons indicated that the latter was considerably more profitable and had a faster turnover. It was also found that the two breeding season had a greater capacity to support reduction in milk price that could generate financial instability in the production system. It was concluded that mathematical models can be used to predict impacts in management policies on herd dynamics and sensitivity to support the dairy goat activity showing its viability as an agricultural activity that can contribute to the production and incomes in small farms.     

Second-order cybernetics as a tool to understand why pastoralists do what they do

The notion that pastoralists are irrational managers due to strong adherence to tradition and culture is still common in livestock production sciences. Researchers and development practitioners tend to fall back on this notion when target groups do not adopt their proposed innovations without any obvious reason. It is however difficult to identify innovations that fit into resource-poor systems, and often this lack of fit is the reason why innovations are not taken up. Understanding why pastoralists do what they do, and learning about the constraints they face when regulating production processes, is a prerequisite for identifying viable improvement possibilities.This study focuses on understanding the reasoning behind pastoralists’ actions. The knowledge underlying pastoralists’ regulation of production processes is analysed with a method based on second-order cybernetics that offers insight in the system view of the actors in the system. It uses feedback and control principles of cybernetics to understand human control in human activity systems. For analysis purposes, a control loop model is proposed to systematically assess, for each management practice, the livestock keepers’ observations and the rules upon which they base their actions.This cybernetic knowledge analysis is illustrated using the example of milk offtake management in a pastoral camel production system in northern Kenya. The example is chosen because lack of knowledge on the complex milk offtake management led to the widespread preconception of poor pastoral management as the cause for high calf mortality.The cybernetic knowledge analysis reveals what livestock keepers consider as information in their production process, as well as the rules that inform their actions. The analysis enables to distinguish between management practices that serve as: (i) routine control; (ii) problem-solving control; or (iii) selection. This information is useful in transdisciplinary studies that involve local actors and other stakeholders in finding solutions to real-world problems. Through the proposed knowledge analysis methodology, scientists can learn about livestock keepers’ reasoning and problem-solving abilities, but also about aspects of the production processes where control is weak and new control possibilities are sought after. The analysis also yields information on how livestock keepers try to achieve their production goals despite restrictions and disturbances given by the production environment. This understanding is of high importance in low-external-input systems that have little scope to control production conditions but that do adapt to them.     

A bio-economic modelling project for small-scale milk production systems in South-East Brazil: Part 2—refinement and use of the model to analyse some short- and long-term management strategies

The further development and use of a bio-economic model to simulate small-scale dairy enterprises in South-East Brazil are reported.The account of animal nutrition has been refined to take account of protein requirements in addition to energy balance. A new version has been developed which allows for the inheritance of production traits.The model has been used to analyse the effects of short-term management decisions on feeding strategies and longer term breeding policies for herd development. It has been used, also, to examine the possibilities of culling for reproductive performance and the effects of a range of growth rates of replacement heifers on overall herd performance.     

A dairy herd cash flow model

A model that estimates milk production, revenue from milk sales and concentrate requirements for a diary herd is described. The model is designed for a programmable calculator for use by staff of the Agricultural Development and Advisory Service in their consultancy work on farms.     

Influence of cross-regulator settings on the offtake discharge in a modern irrigation network

The hydraulic performance of canals and related delivery structures is highly dependent on the management of cross-regulators. The HEC-RAS model was applied to Ordibehesht Canal at the Doroodzan irrigation network, northwest of Fars province in Iran for evaluation of water delivery performance due to operation of cross-regulators. Discharge deviations of offtakes due to cross-regulator gate position changes and deviations of water delivery equity were evaluated. Results showed that small changes in gate positions of check structures (cross-regulators) cause considerable changes in the offtake discharges and equity (spatial uniformity) of water delivery to the offtakes along the main canal. Results of the study led to the development of two sensitivity indicators. “Offtake sensitivity to check setting” that represents the changes in offtake discharges due to changes in cross-regulator setting, and “Sensitivity of the equity indicator to the gate position change” are the two developed indicators which can be used for better management of water delivery systems.     

Cattle are cash generating assets for mixed smallholder farms in the Eastern Amazon

The presence of cattle in the Amazon region is controversial in terms of their ecological suitability and profitability compared with crops. Nevertheless, they are widely distributed in the study area in north-eastern Pará and, contrary to the common image of cattle on large ranches, a high proportion of them are kept on smallholder farms. To explain their presence, cattle are assumed to have benefits beyond physical production, such as complementing resource use or representing capital. To test this hypothesis, the costs and benefits of the three main agricultural activities, cattle, cassava and black pepper production, in terms of land, labour and capital productivity, were recorded in 37 small farms over a period of 15 months. To provide a longer perspective, benefits and costs of these activities were calculated for their assumed lifetime, which in the case of cattle, assumed a stable herd, derived from a deterministic herd model. The resultant values for land, labour and capital productivity of cattle were much lower than the values derived from direct observations during the study period, and were not as high as those for cassava and black pepper. Furthermore, the analysis of resource use in the farms showed that cattle production was not usually integrated with cropping activities, did not improve the use of available labour, and competed for land. Therefore, there had to be a reason for keeping cattle beyond their physical productivity. It was deduced to be their functional quality. Cattle could be disposed of quickly and easily at any time, in order to acquire large sums of cash or the equivalent in kind. The liquidity derived from keeping living stock was not matched by other agricultural activities or by the financial market. Hence, cattle turned out to be the best instrument of finance for the smallholder. Farmers were not interested in the continuous development of their herds, or sustainable production practices, and favoured low input management. Consequently, development plans relying on long-term, continuous commitments to pasture and cattle management are inappropriate. Instead, research and extension work should focus on simple, flexible and low-cost improvements to cattle keeping on crop-livestock smallholder farms, until credit programmes are available that replace the financing function of cattle.     

A Markov decision sow model representing the productive lifespan of herd sows

A Markov decision sow model has been developed to represent the productive and reproductive lifespan of herd sows. This model precisely describes the herd structure at equilibrium based on actual farm data. Model outputs are the herd structure at equilibrium, and technical and economic indexes. Validation has been performed by comparing observed and simulated outputs from specific farm data. A complementary validation using a statistical χ² test based on Pearson's statistic is proposed to compare herd distributions at equilibrium. The model is intended to be used by farmers and runs on micro computers.     

A dynamic bio-economic model to simulate optimal adjustments of suckler cow farm management to production and market shocks in France

Tactical adjustments to seasonal weather conditions and beef price may generate additional income or avoid losses in French beef cattle farms. Due to the length of the suckler cow production cycle, adjustment decisions may impact not only on current production and profit but also on future farm outcomes. To better understand the consequences of shocks and subsequent production adjustments on the evolution of farm earnings and production over time, we built a dynamic recursive bio-economic farm model. Our model introduced simultaneously the possibility of adjusting herd size and herd composition, diet composition and diet energy content, as well as crop rotation, haymaking and feed stocks, taking into account both their short- and long-term consequences. An application is provided to test impacts of crop yield and beef price shocks of different intensities. Main simulated adjustments to face unfavourable weather shocks are (1) purchased feed in order to maintain animal production objectives, and (2) area of pasture harvested for haymaking. Very severe beef price shocks induce forced sales. Weather shocks affect farm net profit not only of the current year but also of the following years. Profit losses caused by unfavourable weather conditions are not compensated by gains in favourable ones and this differential is amplified when intensity of shocks rises.     

The CAMDAIRY model for formulating and analysing dairy cow rations

The paper describes a package of computer programs known as ‘CAMDAIRY’, which is written for CP/M80 and MS-DOS operating systems. The core program is a bio-mathematical model of a lactating cow, which incorporates functions to predict nutrient requirements, feed intake, substitution effects when feeding concentrates, tissue mobilisation and partition of nutrient utilisation between milk production and growth. Nutrient partitioning is described by a series of asymptotic curves relating energy intake to milk production, such that energy requirements per litre increase progressively with level of milk production. This model is incorporated into an econometric model, ‘Maximum Profit’, which uses linear programming procedures to formulate rations for up to two groups of cows in a herd in a way which maximises income above feed costs, whilst meeting nutrient requirements and satisfying constraints on feed supply and milk production requirements. Other programs in the CAMDAIRY package are ‘Least Cost’, a program which calculates a leastcost ration using fixed energy requirements for milk production, and ‘Analysis’, a program which predicts likely milk production given characteristics of the cows, feed intake and feed composition.     

Simulation of the intake and partition of nutrients by the dairy cow: Part II— The yield and composition of milk

This paper is the second in a series describing a computer-based simulation model designed for use as a management control aid for the dairy herd and concerned with the intake and partition of nutrients by the cow. Milk production is represented in the model in two parts; the first estimates the potential milk yield for each 24 h simulation interval and the second is concerned with matching the available metabolites to the requirements associated with the potential yield. In each case, a conceptual scheme for inclusion in the model is outlined in relation to the relevant literature and the manner in which these schemes are represented in the model is described.     

Implications of on-farm segregation for valuable milk characteristics

Milk composition varies between herds and cows within herds, enabling its segregation on farm, rather than during processing, for the manufacture of specific dairy products. Benefits may include increased product yields, reduced processing costs and greater suitability of differentiated milk for the production of high value niche market products. However, costs are also likely to be greater. An integrated spreadsheet model was developed to determine the break-even premium required for a farmer with a seasonal calving herd to be economically no worse off producing segregated than conventional milk. The model incorporated breeding (quantitative and qualitative traits), cow requirements and feeding, transport, and economic sub-models. Cows were segregated within herd and milk composition was altered over time by genetic selection. Four quantitative trait (“white” milk colour) scenarios and two qualitative trait (BB β-lactoglobulin milk) scenarios were considered.The model suggested that “white” milkfat would need to earn 38.4% more at the farm gate than conventional milkfat for the two systems to break even. “White” milk cows produced less than their status quo counterparts due to the reduced selection pressure on production milk traits and this had a considerable impact on the premium, as did the low initial volumes of white milkfat. The difference in production between the B β-lactoglobulin cows and their status quo counterparts was less than for selection on white milkfat only. The high risk to farmers of discontinuing a differentiated milk policy could be moderated by changing the structure of premium payments over time. Hence, processing companies and farmers will need to work together to facilitate the uptake of milk segregation. This research model could be applied by dairy companies and farmers considering milk segregation policies.     

Maasai herd and flock structures in relation to livestock wealth,climate and development

Information was obtained on the structure of the herds and flocks of a sample of 41 households on the three Maasai Group Ranches in Kenya. The purpose of the survey was to contribute to an intensive study of the livestock production system, and also to assess the amount of information that could be obtained from a herd structure study on its own. Differences in herd structure were related to the livestock wealth of the household, the stage of development of the Group Ranch as well as to the variation in climate, and production alternatives.Data from more than 5100 cattle revealed that Maasai herds contained less steers in 1982 (18%) than in 1968 (22%). The proportion of mature steers had also dropped from 5% (1968) to 2% (1982), with maximum valves of 3·2% on the most developed ranch and 2% for the wealthiest stratum of households. A high percentage of females had been retained (56%) giving a herd structure characteristic of subsistence production with milk as a primary output. This structure also caters for a strong market in immature animals and gives the herd a high potential for recovery after a drought. There appeared to be a trend towards increased use of introduced bulls, notably Sahiwal on the Small East African Zebu, with increased Group Ranch Development. However, this trend was confounded by a decreasing aridity gradient with increased development.On two of the ranches for which 1968 counts were available, cattle numbers were 119% of their previous value whereas small stock were 470%. The reason appears to be that increased sedentarisation without adequate range management has resulted in a severe reduction in grasses, and their replacement by forbs. These plants are more palatable to small stock which are better able to exploit the degraded habitat.Information from more than 2730 sheep and 2300 goats revealed that poor households preferred goats and richer households, sheep. The Small East African Goat was ubiquitous, but the most developed ranch had crossed Dorper onto Maasai sheep whereas the least developed and most arid ranch had introduced Somali Blackhead sheep. The Dorper crossbred catered for a market for mutton whereas the Blackhead was primarily for home consumption of fat.The conclusion is that Group Ranch Development has not projected the Maasai into commercial beef ranching as originally planned, but their production system has not stood still. A study of herd structures was a good way of demonstrating the evolution of the system. The method was simple but was dependent for its success on fairly involved and time-consuming sampling and data collection procedures.