东海鲐鱼资源合理利用的研究

利用1970~2006年每年取样鲐鱼所得叉长体重组构成资料,重点分析了70、80、90年代的鲐鱼生物学表征;并结合我国围网捕捞的发展变化情况,应用体长结构实际种群分析法(LVPA)对各个年代的鲐鱼捕捞死亡系数(F)做了分析对比,研究显示,东海区日本鲭F由70年代的0.68上升为90年代的1.60,开发利用程度在不断地加大中。根据1990年以来的日本鲭渔获量资料,估算了1990~2001年东海区日本鲭资源量,结果表明,东海区日本鲭年平均资源量在(73.34~116.88)×104t之间波动。以LVPA法估算所得的90年代鲐鱼F值和最小开捕叉长的数据,利用B-H动态综合模型估算了不同渔业条件下的单位补充量渔获量(Y/R)的变化,结果显示,以目前的捕捞强度,日本鲭的开捕年龄从0.25龄提高为1.22龄,即最小开捕叉长由185 mm调整为247.61 mm,Y/R可提高15.1%,具有一定增产潜力。建议在实际渔业中,渔期适当推迟,禁止利用日本鲭幼鱼。     

1999—2011年东、黄海鲐资源丰度年间变化分析

根据1999—2011年我国鲐大型灯光围网渔业数据,使用广义线性模型(generalized linear model,GLM)和广义加性模型(generalized additive model,GAM)估算了影响CPUE的时间(年、月)、空间(经度、纬度)、捕捞性能和环境效应[海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、海表面高度、海表面叶绿素浓度],并以年效应作为资源丰度指数,分析了东、黄海鲐资源丰度的年间变化,东、黄海鲐资源丰度指数的年间变化与产卵场海表面温度以及捕捞强度间的关系。GAM结果表明,时间、空间、捕捞和环境变量对CPUE偏差的解释率为11.69%,其中变量年的解释率最大,占总解释率的38%。结果显示,1999—2011年东、黄海鲐鱼资源丰度指数(abundance index,AI)总体上呈下降趋势,2008年以来更是持续下降,丰度指数由2008年的1.22降至2011年的0.82。东、黄海鲐资源丰度指数年间与产卵场呈正相关,关系式为AI=-3.51+0.23SST(P0.05),这表明较高的产卵场SST对鲐资源量增加有利。过高的渔获量以及我国群众围网渔业渔船数量的快速增长是导致近年来鲐鱼资源下降的重要原因。     

Environmental effects on recruitment and productivity of Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus with recommendations for management

We compared a wide range of environmental data with measures of recruitment and stock production for Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus to examine factors potentially responsible for fishery regimes (periods of high or low recruitment and productivity). Environmental factors fall into two groups based on principal component analyses. The first principal component group was determined by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index and was dominated by variables associated with the Southern Oscillation Index and Kuroshio Sverdrup transport. The second was led by the Arctic Oscillation and dominated by variables associated with Kuroshio geostrophic transport. Instantaneous surplus production rates (ISPR) and log recruitment residuals (LNRR) changed within several years of environmental regime shifts and then stabilized due, we hypothesize, to rapid changes in carrying capacity and relaxation of density dependent effects. Like ISPR, LNRR appears more useful than fluctuation in commercial catch data for identifying the onset of fishery regime shifts. The extended Ricker models indicate spawning stock biomass and sea surface temperatures (SST) affect recruitment of sardine while spawning stock biomass, SST and sardine biomass affect recruitment of chub mackerel. Environmental conditions were favorable for sardine during 1969–87 and unfavorable during 1951–67 and after 1988. There were apparent shifts from favorable to unfavorable conditions for chub mackerel during 1976–77 and 1985–88, and from unfavorable to favorable during 1969–70 and 1988–92. Environmental effects on recruitment and surplus production are important but fishing effects are also influential. For example, chub mackerel may have shifted into a new favorable fishery regime in 1992 if fishing mortality had been lower. We suggest that managers consider to shift fishing effort in response to the changing stock productivity, and protect strong year classes by which we may detect new favorable regimes.     

Stock size fluctuations in chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the East China Sea and the Japan/East Sea

The stock size of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the East China Sea and the Japan/East Sea has shown a continuous decrease, with fluctuations, from 1975 to 1990. After a remarkable increase in 1992–96, the stock size fell to its lowest level in 1997–99. The spawning success (number of recruits/spawning biomass) fluctuates periodically with a period of several years, although there are no clear relationships between the spawning biomass and the number of recruits. Spawning success was inversely correlated with sea surface temperature (SST). On the contrary, the catch amount and the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of spotted mackerel (Scomber australasicus) has increased since 1997.     

应用渔业资源评估专家系统预测东海鲐年产量

利用渔业资源评估专家系统估算和预测了东海鲐年产量，实际的应用和对过去年产量的回顾预测都表明，该专家系统具有一定的实用性，其预测产量与实际产量比较接近，平均预测精度为87.8%，预测结果可供渔业生产和管理部门参考。从近十多年鲐的渔业生产和资源状况来看，鲐实际捕捞产量巳接近我们所评估的现存资源量。同时，渔获物的组成以当龄鱼为绝对多数，小型化、低龄化现象明显，说明东海鲐资源巳得到充分利用，并开始出现过度利用的迹象，资源前景并不乐观。     

黄海小黄鱼（Pseudosciaena polyactis）生态和种群动态的研究

本文通过１９８５年至１９９０年的大规模黄海调查，对小黄鱼的资源分布、种群结构、生殖和摄食、生长和死亡的变化进行了分析研究，表明八十年代以来小黄鱼种群结构趋于简单、性成熟提前、生长加快。当前捕捞死亡率过高，以至于小黄鱼大部分群体在性成熟之前已被捕获。在八十年代中期，小黄鱼的资源量已降至五十年代的十至十五分之一。渔获量和资源量的下降主要是由于过度捕捞所致。只要黄海周围过高的捕捞力量的存在，小黄鱼资源很难得以恢复并达到最大持续产量。若将目前的捕捞死亡系数至少降低５０％，开捕年龄应不低于２龄，则其资源才有可能恢复。     

基于贝叶斯方法的东、黄海鲐资源评估及管理策略风险分析

运用基于贝叶斯的剩余产量模型,对东、黄海鲐资源进行评估,确定了当前鲐资源开发利用状态,估算了在不同收获率水平下未来5年鲐资源量和年总可捕捞量,分析了管理策略实施后鲐资源崩溃的风险。结果表明,2006年东、黄海鲐正遭受过度捕捞,但其资源量并未处于过度捕捞状态。决策分析表明,收获率为0.3是最适预防性的管理策略,在该策略下,鲐平均资源量将从2006年的451千吨将增加到2011年的871千吨,2011年资源量恢复到BMSY的概率为0.48,而过度捕捞的概率为0。     

Fisheries management based on ecosystem dynamics and feedback control

Recently, ecosystem management has become popular for forestry, agriculture and fisheries management. Carrying capacity and maximum sustainable yield for a particular species definitely depend on population sizes of other species in the same ecosystem. Natural stock fluctuations of sardine, anchovy and chub mackerel are well known examples of large, natural fluctuations. There is a negative correlation among their fluctuations. In accordance with the cyclic advantage hypothesis for replacement of pelagic fish species (Matsuda et al., 1992), we can predict the next dominant species, despite an uncertainty in the year of the next replacement. We recommend that commercial fisheries should switch their target to the next dominant species before the stock of the present dominant species collapses. Whilst total allowable catch (TAC) of the present dominant species can be as large as we can consume, TAC after the species collapses should be much smaller than the present catch level.     

澳洲鲭太平洋群系的资源评估与管理策略

澳洲鲭是西北太平洋重要的经济种类,了解和掌握澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源开发状况对确保其可持续利用具有重要的意义。根据日本中央水产研究所提供的1995—2015年澳洲鲭太平洋群系的生产统计和资源调查资料,利用基于年龄结构的实际种群模型和单位补充量产量模型等进行资源量评估,分析澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源利用情况及其管理策略。结果显示,历年澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源量虽有波动但仍保持在较高水平,2015年资源量最高约为65万t;年平均捕捞死亡系数呈波动下降趋势,2015年捕捞死亡系数只有0.15,近五年平均捕捞死亡系数Fcur=0.33,单位补充量亲体量是未开发时的32.7%,不存在生长型捕捞过度,也不存在补充型捕捞过度,处于可持续开发状态。研究还探讨了水温变化引起自然死亡波动以及不同开捕年龄对澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源状况的影响。研究表明,该渔业目前开发和利用程度合理,建议使用F0.1做为管理参考点进行渔业资源的管理。     

北太平洋公海日本鲭资源分布及其渔场环境特征

根据2014~2015年两年收集的北太平洋公海围拖网作业的日本鲭(Scomber japonicas,又称鲐鱼)生产月度数据,结合同期卫星遥感反演技术获取的海表温度(SST)、海水叶绿素a(Chl-a)浓度、海流等环境数据,运用渔获量重心法,地统计插值等方法,分析了北太平洋公海鲐鱼的资源分布情况与渔获量重心的时空变化及其与主要环境因子之间的关系。研究表明,鲐鱼渔场季节性差异明显,渔场重心集中分布在39°N~43°N、147°E~154°E范围内。两年渔场重心均呈现先向东北方向移动,自9月开始再向西南方向移动的趋势。GAM模型显示,北太平洋鲐鱼渔场的最适海表温度范围是16~18℃,最适叶绿素a浓度范围是0.3~0.8 mg·m~(-3),空间上集中分布在40°N~41°N、148°E~151°E,海流对鲐鱼渔场形成尤为重要。     

鱼类栖息地模拟的比较研究—以东海鲐鱼为例

利用东海海域1997年10月、1998年3月、1999年7月和2000年1月鲐鱼渔获率及表层温度、盐度和初级生产力等环境因子数据,构建东海鲐鱼资源空间分布与环境因子间的一般线性模型(GLM)和广义加性模型(GAM),并将GLM和GAM模拟值的均值分别与实测值进行独立样本t检验及其误差分析.分析结果表明,GLM与GAM模型的独立样本t检验P值均大于0.05,因此两者都可模拟东海鲐鱼栖息地的空间分布.其中,GLM模型对鲐鱼渔获率空间分布趋势的模拟更为准确;而GAM模拟值对鲐鱼栖息地环境因子的变化比较敏感,能够解释更多空间数据的变化,因而GAM在分析鱼类栖息地与环境因子间关联程度或资源评估方面具有优势.     

Modelling South Pacific jack mackerel spatial population dynamics and fisheries

Since the 1970s, South Pacific jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi) is one of the world's most important commercial exploited fish stock. The peak in the catch was achieved in the 1990s, after which the catch for all fleets steadily decreased due to strong fishing mortality and potentially unfavourable environmental conditions. An application of the ecosystem and fish population model SEAPODYM was developed for this species in the South Pacific Ocean to determine the extent of environmental and fisheries drivers on the stock dynamics. We combined publicly available fishing data, acoustic biomass estimates and expert knowledge to optimise fish population dynamics parameters (habitats, movements, natural and fishing mortality). Despite a large proportion of missing catch over the simulation period, the model provides realistic distributions of biomass, a good fit‐to‐data and is in agreement with the literature. The feeding habitat is predicted to be delineated by water temperature between 15°C for the first cohorts and 8.5°C for the oldest and dissolved oxygen concentration above 1.8 ml/L. Optimal spawning temperature is estimated to 15.57°C (S.E.: 0.75°C). The core habitat is predicted off Central Chile which is also the main fishing ground. There are other areas of higher fish concentration east of New Zealand, in the eastern part of the southern convergence and off Peru and northern Chile. However, there is a clear continuity between these different large sub‐populations. Fishing is predicted to have by far the highest impact, a result that should be reinforced if all fishing mortality could be included.     

‘97山东近海捕捞业“春歉秋增”原因

对山东近海渔业资源优势组成、变化,对水温、盐度、营养盐、海水污染、厄尔尼诺现象等非生物环境和初级生产力等生物环境进行了分析,指出：捕捞过度和环境污染导致渔业资源破坏,加上１９９６年的“暖冬”,是１９９７年山东近海捕捞生产“春歉”的主要原因。鲐、鲅、鲥因其独特的生物特性、“暖冬”和栉孔扇贝大量死亡等缘故,‘９７世代较强,加上海蜇旺发等因,是１９９７年“秋增”的原因。建议加强资源管理,定额捕捞幼鲐,对     

Estimation of the spawning grounds of chub mackerel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Scomber japonicus</Emphasis> and spotted mackerel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Scomber australasicus</Emphasis> in the East China Sea based on catch statistics and biometric data

The spawning grounds of the chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) and spotted mackerel (Scomber australasicus) in the East China Sea were estimated based on catch statistics of the Japanese large- and medium-type purse seine fishery from 1992 to 2006. Biometric data were obtained from specimens caught by purse seiners in the East China Sea from 1998 to 2006. Gonadosomatic index (GSI) at 50% sexual maturity of chub mackerel and spotted mackerel females was 2.5 and 2.6, respectively. Using this criterion for GSI, chub mackerel larger than 275 mm and spotted mackerel larger than 310 mm in fork length were considered to be mature. Mature chub mackerel was observed in the area of 15–22°C sea surface temperature (SST), and mature spotted mackerel was observed in the area of 17–25°C SST. The spawning period of chub mackerel ranged from February to June, and that of spotted mackerel ranged from February to May in the East China Sea. The spawning grounds were estimated from the distributions of catch per unit effort (CPUE) of spawners and SST. As a result, the spawning ground of chub mackerel was estimated to be in the central and southern part of the East China Sea and the area west of Kyushu in February, March, and April, and in the central part of the East China Sea, the area west of Kyushu and Tsushima Straight in May, and in Tsushima Straight and western part of the Sea of Japan in June. The spawning ground of spotted mackerel was estimated to be in the central and southern part of the East China Sea and southern coastal area of Kyushu in February, March, and April, and the central and southern part of the East China Sea and the area west of Kyushu in May.     

东南太平洋竹?鱼资源评估与捕捞控制规则模拟研究

以东南太平洋智利竹鱼为对象、以资源量动态模型为基础,使用模拟方法构建了"真实"的智利竹鱼种群及其渔业,评估了观测误差和过程误差对智利竹鱼资源评估和管理的影响。模拟的"真实"的智利竹鱼种群及其渔业结果显示,1997—2014年太平洋智利竹鱼资源量总体上呈逐年下降趋势,且远低于B_(MSY)的50%;捕捞死亡系数波动剧烈,仅在2012—2014年低于F_(MSY)且相对稳定。渔业资源评估模拟结果显示,观测误差和过程误差使资源量和B_(MSY)被低估,捕捞死亡系数和F_(MSY)被高估,且随机误差越大,资源量、B_(MSY)被低估,而捕捞死亡系数、F_(MSY)被高估的程度越大。渔业管理模拟的结果表明,捕捞控制规则采用恒定捕捞死亡系数时,未来10年基于50%2014年捕捞死亡系数的管理措施为最佳管理措施。由于捕捞死亡系数被高估,最佳管理措施实施后使得年总可捕捞量高于预期,而年资源量低于预期,资源量增长或恢复的速度变慢,资源可能同时处于过度捕捞状态和正遭受过度捕捞。过度捕捞的风险与随机观测误差和过程误差的大小成正比。     

北部湾二长棘鲷生长和死亡参数估计

根据上世纪90年代及60年代的生物学资料，运用体长频率分析法估算二长棘鲷的生长和死亡参数。vonBertlanffy生长方程的主要参数L∞=27．3cm，K=0．45，t0=-O．34；体重的生长拐点为2．12龄；瞬时总死亡率(Z)、瞬时自然死亡率(M)和瞬时捕捞死亡率(F)分别为2.825，1．045和1．78。当前开发率为0．63，资源处于过度利用状态。根据等渔量曲线图分析，当前的捕捞强度过高，而开捕年龄和开捕体长过低，资源出现衰竭现象。综合考虑当前的捕捞强度和社会经济效益，建议北部湾二长棘鲷的最适开捕年龄大于1龄，开捕体长大于120mm。     

用实际种群分析法评估东海鲐鱼现存资源量

用实际种群分析法评估了工海及长江口区域鲐鱼近１０年来的现存资源量,结果表明,工海及长江口区域的鲐鱼自１９９７年以来历年的现存资源量分别在１３．２－２３．５万吨和４．１－１２．７万吨之间波动,近年一资源数量稳定在一个较高水平上,而近年鲐鱼的实际捕捞已逐渐接近其现存资源量,说明鲐鱼资源进一步开发利用的潜力不是很大。     

Interannual changes in the timing of walleye pollock spawning migration and their impacts on the gillnet fishery in the southwestern Pacific coast of Hokkaido,Donan area,Japan

The southwestern Pacific coast of Hokkaido is the main spawning ground for the Japanese Pacific stock of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma. A commercial gillnet fishery targeting spawning adult pollock in this area mainly operates from October to January to coincide with the migration of adult pollock from the feeding ground. Given the results of acoustic surveys, and changes in the proportion of the monthly total catch that was monthly walleye pollock caught by the commercial gillnet fishery, it is thought that the timing of walleye pollock spawning migration to the Donan area varies among years and that the pollock catch of the gillnet fishery clearly reflects changes in pollock abundance in this area. A time series of interannual variability in catch data from 1980 to 2005 suggested that adult pollock migrated and concentrated on their spawning ground later in the 1980s and after 2000 than in the 1990s. Such decadal-scale shifts are presumably caused by climatic changes (e.g., in water temperature) in the Oyashio region. These shifts affect the gillnet fishery through differences in monthly unit prices of pollock and changes in the formation of fishing grounds. These scientific findings can aid the establishment of rules for more efficient walleye pollock resource management under the total allowable catch system.     

北部湾深水金线鱼种群参数的动态变化

根据1992年—1993年(1992年)、1997年—1999年(1997年)和2009年—2010年(2009年)北部湾底拖网渔业资源调查的生物学资料, 对深水金线鱼群体组成、生长和死亡参数等种群生物学参数进行研究。结果表明, 北部湾深水金线鱼的种群生物学有明显的年际变化, 种群趋向小型化和低龄化, 生长速度加快, 性成熟提前。平均体长从1992年138.25 mm下降到1997年的112.70 mm和2009年的118.28 mm, 相应地平均体质量分别为60.06 g、39.03 g和48.85 g。1992年、1997年和2009年间von Bertalanffy生长方程的渐近体长(L?)、生长参数(k)和理论初始年龄(t0)分别为242.2 mm、0.39、?0.39; 220.4 mm、0.45、?0.35和235.5 mm、0.48、?0.32。体质量拐点年龄(tr)分别为从1992年2.19龄提前到1997年1.97龄和2009年1.86龄。50%性成熟体长(L50)则从1992年的128.6 mm下降到1997年116.5 mm和2009年的110.5 mm。1992年、1997年和2009年间的开发率(E)分别为0.57、0.62和0.58, 表明自20世纪90年代以来, 北部湾深水金线鱼种群已处过度捕捞状态。深水金线鱼的种群参数的一系列变化表明, 在高捕捞强度的胁迫下, 深水金线鱼为延续种群, 其种群产生了适应性变化。     

东海南部鲐鱼生物学特性的初步研究

本文对东海南部的鲐鲹鱼类的叉长、体重及性腺成熟度等进行了初步分析,认为1999年5月份东海南部鲐鱼优势叉长组为26～28cm,优势体重组为200～300g;7、8月份优势叉长组为24～26cm,优势体重组为100～200g。蓝圆鲹优势叉长组为20～21cm。2000年7、8月份鲐鱼优势叉长组为24～26cm。1999年鲐鱼叉长组成基本呈正态分布,2000年鲐鱼叉长组成明显存在两个峰值。2000年相同叉长的鲐鱼体重要略低于1999年,认为跟1999年、2000年海洋环境因子变化有关。从相关系数来看,2000年的曲线更贴近实际情况。并认为5月份北上参加产卵洄游的鲐鱼群体、其性腺已开始发育成熟,并沿途产卵。