Forest transition in developed agricultural regions needs efficient regulatory policy

The shift from net forest loss to gain—forest transition—has been associated variously with economic development, market-driven reforestation, forest policy, and globalization. Evidence shows that governments can expedite forest transition, although economic and institutional failures can distort policy incentives. This study addresses the paucity of spatially explicit empirical research on the robustness of the forest transition hypothesis in a developed country context and identifies factors that may hasten, delay, or even reverse forest transition. We applied spatial-econometric analysis to high-resolution forest cover, climatic, socioeconomic, physiographic, and State-jurisdiction data for the Australian intensive agricultural zone from 1988 to 2014. While environmental and physiographic factors explained the spatial distribution of forests, net forest cover change was significantly associated with trends in farm-output prices inducing deforestation in Queensland, the State with less effective land clearance regulations. Changes in land clearing regulations in Queensland were significantly associated with the national forest cover trends that resulted in forest transition in Australia around 2008. Yet when land clearing regulations and their enforcement were subsequently relaxed in 2012, significant forest cover loss was once again observed in that State, particularly in remnant forests. We conclude that if forest regulatory protection is not effective, net forest loss could resume or increase, even in developed countries, in response to growing incentives for forest conversion to agriculture.     

Using indicators of deforestation and land-use dynamics to support conservation strategies: A case study of central Rondônia,Brazil

In Rondônia State, Brazil, settlement processes have cleared 68,000 km² of tropical forests since the 1970s. The intensity of deforestation has differed by region depending on driving factors like roads and economic activities. Different histories of land-use activities and rates of change have resulted in mosaics of forest patches embedded in an agricultural matrix. Yet, most assessments of deforestation and its effects on vegetation, soil and water typically focus on landscape patterns of current conditions, yet historical deforestation dynamics can influence current conditions strongly. Here, we develop and describe the use of four land-use dynamic indicators to capture historical land-use changes of catchments and to measure the rate of deforestation (annual deforestation rate), forest regeneration level (secondary forest mean proportion), time since disturbance (mean time since deforestation) and deforestation profile (deforestation profile curvature). We used the proposed indices to analyze a watershed located in central Rondônia. Landsat TM and ETM+ images were used to produce historical land-use maps of the last 18 years, each even year from 1984 to 2002 for 20 catchments. We found that the land-use dynamics indicators are able to distinguish catchments with different land-use change profiles. Four categories of historical land-use were identified: old and dominant pasture cover on small properties, recent deforestation and dominance of secondary growth, old extensive pastures and large forest remnants and, recent deforestation, pasture and large forest remnants. Knowing historical deforestation processes is important to develop appropriate conservation strategies and define priorities and actions for conserving forests currently under deforestation.     

Effects of roads,topography, and land use on forest cover dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Roads and topography can determine patterns of land use and distribution of forest cover, particularly in tropical regions. We evaluated how road density, land use, and topography affected forest fragmentation, deforestation and forest regrowth in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest region near the city of São Paulo. We mapped roads and land use/land cover for three years (1962, 1981 and 2000) from historical aerial photographs, and summarized the distribution of roads, land use/land cover and topography within a grid of 94 non-overlapping 100 ha squares. We used generalized least squares regression models for data analysis. Our models showed that forest fragmentation and deforestation depended on topography, land use and road density, whereas forest regrowth depended primarily on land use. However, the relationships between these variables and forest dynamics changed in the two studied periods; land use and slope were the strongest predictors from 1962 to 1981, and past (1962) road density and land use were the strongest predictors for the following period (1981–2000). Roads had the strongest relationship with deforestation and forest fragmentation when the expansions of agriculture and buildings were limited to already deforested areas, and when there was a rapid expansion of development, under influence of São Paulo city. Furthermore, the past (1962) road network was more important than the recent road network (1981) when explaining forest dynamics between 1981 and 2000, suggesting a long-term effect of roads. Roads are permanent scars on the landscape and facilitate deforestation and forest fragmentation due to increased accessibility and land valorization, which control land-use and land-cover dynamics. Topography directly affected deforestation, agriculture and road expansion, mainly between 1962 and 1981. Forest are thus in peril where there are more roads, and long-term conservation strategies should consider ways to mitigate roads as permanent landscape features and drivers facilitators of deforestation and forest fragmentation.     

文峪河流域土地利用/覆被变化及其驱动力分析

土地利用/覆被变化对于区域的自然、经济和生态发展有着深刻的影响,土地变化驱动力研究是土地利用/覆被变化的核心问题之一。为了探讨中西部小流域的土地覆被变化特征及其驱动因子组成与驱动方式,以山西省文峪河流域为研究对象,基于RS与GIS平台,分析流域2000—2018年土地利用/覆被变化情况;利用马尔柯夫模型预测未来土地利用结构;选取自然因子、区位建设因子、社会经济因子,利用Logistic回归的建模方法分析流域的土地利用/覆被驱动力。结果表明,流域整体耕地、林地、草地面积有所减少,水域、建设用地、其他用地类型面积增加,不同地类的变化速度、土地转移情况不同,流域整体土地变化速度较快,利用程度提高,有序化程度下降,均匀度增加。预测结果显示,耕地、林地、草地、其他用地面积下降,水域、建设用地面积增加,除耕地、建设用地外,其余地类面积变化较小。自然因子、区位建设因子和社会经济因子对研究区土地利用/覆被变化都具有显著的驱动作用。流域的土地利用/覆被在过去18年间经历了快速、复杂的变化,自然因子对土地变化具有基础性、长远性的影响,短时间尺度上区位建设因子与社会经济因子是影响土地变化的主要驱动力量。     

Trends in land cover change and isolation of protected areas at the interface of the southern boreal mixedwood and aspen parkland in Alberta, Canada

The Beaver Hills region of central Alberta is located at the interface of the southern boreal mixedwood forest and the aspen parkland, an area now dominated by agriculture, urban and industrial development. Increasing anthropogenic land cover will eventually isolate remaining natural habitats currently protected in parks and reserves. This paper analyzes land cover and land cover change (LCC) in the Beaver Hills moraine and surrounding areas using a structured hierarchical satellite imagery classification applied to Landsat Multi Spectral Scanner and Thematic Mapper from 1977, 1987, and 1998. Our goal was to quantify deforestation and habitat fragmentation trends and then discuss how this information could be used to develop a conservation approach that will protect current areas against further habitat loss. We found that the rate of deforestation in the lands surrounding the moraine was similar to the broad trend at the southern periphery of the Canadian boreal forest region: annual rate of change in forest cover was −0.82%/year. However, in the Beaver Hills there was a net gain of +0.61%/year, due to regeneration of low quality agricultural lands. All fragmentation indices used indicated an increase in forest fragmentation. We designed a network of protected areas and remaining large forest patches, based on the UNESCO-MAB biosphere model. Our results underline concerns regarding the increasing isolation of national parks and biological reserves in Canada.     

Deforestation and loss of bushland and grassland primarily due to expansion of cultivation in mainland Tanzania (1995–2010)

Information on land use and cover changes (LUCC) is important for planning of conservation and development and thus ensure forest sustainability. The current paper assesses LUCC for the whole of the mainland Tanzania. The analyses were done using land use and cover maps covering the whole of mainland Tanzania for 1995 and 2010. For 1995, forest, bushland, grassland, cultivation and other land use and cover (built up areas, bare land, etc.) covered 43.5%, 19.8%, 23.5%, 11.2%, and 2.0% of the study area, respectively. For 2010, the same land use and cover classes covered 38.0%, 14.5%, 6.9%, 36.5%, and 4.1% of the study area, respectively. The annual rate of deforestation was 320,067 ha, which is equivalent to 0.9%. Bushland and grassland were lost at 313,745 and 969,982 ha/year, respectively. Most forest was converted to cultivation and least to other land use and cover. In conclusion, the net changes were deforestation and loss of bushland and grassland primarily due to expansion of cultivation. Further research on how to reduce or halt expansion of cultivation may shed light on improving sustainability of forest, bushland, and grassland in mainland Tanzania.     

Assessment of forest geospatial patterns over the three giant forest areas of China

Geospatial patterns of forest fragmentation over the three traditional giant forested areas of China （Northeastern, southwestern and Southern China） were analyzed comparatively and reported based on a 250-m resolution land cover dataset. Specifically, the spatial patterns of forest fragmentation were characterized by combining geospatial metrics and forest fragmentation models. The driving forces resulting in the differences of the forest spatial patterns were also investigated. Results suggested that forests in southwest China had the highest severity of forest fragmentation, followed by south region and northeast region. The driving forces of forest fragmentation in China were primarily the giant population and improper exploitation of forests. In conclusion, the generated information in the study provided valuable insights and implications as to the fragmentation patterns and the conservation of hiodiversity or genes, and the use of the chosen geospatial metrics and forest fragmentation models was quite useful for depicting forest fragmentation patterns.     

Factors influencing the loss of forest cover in bangladesh: An analysis from socioeconomic and demographic perspectives

Some studies have attributed forest shrinkage to population growth, economic development, conversion of forest land to agricultural use and harvesting of trees for timber and fuelwood. But the statistical support for these hypotheses is not strong. This paper attempts to test the above hypotheses statistically in the case of Bangladesh. Factor analysis extracted 4 important factors—(a) exploitation of forests for timber, fuelwood, tea, and shrimp production, (b) demographic pressure in agriculture, (c) economic development, and (d) expansion of crop lands—as causes of deforestation. The statistical test supports the hypotheses that the exploitation of forests for timber, fuelwood, tea and shrimp production, and conversion of forests to crop lands have a negative influence on forest cover. Economic development and demographic pressure in agriculture are also negatively correlated with forest cover. Results of regression analysis show the conversion of forests to agricultural land is the most important cause of deforestation. Other important causes, in order of their relative importance, are the relative price of forest products, population growth, economic development, demographic pressure in agriculture, increasing production of shrimps, export of tea and shrimps, increasing production of timber and fuelwood, and expansion of tea lands. The statistical tests support the above relationships.     

Impacts of Deforestation and Land Cover Change on Mountain Soils in Hrazdan,Armenia

The impacts of deforestation and land cover change upon underlying soils were examined on one hillside in central Armenia. Soil characteristics in three land cover areas—forest, coppice, and pasture—were recorded and soil samples were analyzed. Deforestation and land cover change were found to increase erosion rates. From soil horizon and structural characteristics, it can be estimated that 40 cm of soil have been lost in the pasture and 20 cm have been lost in the coppice compared to the forest. Soil organic carbon was also affected by deforestation and land cover change. Compared to the forest (4.7% organic carbon), both the coppice (3.7%) and the pasture (3.4%) had lower values. Phosphorus, potassium, and nitrogen content varied and may have been affected by erosion, animal deposition, differing amounts of vegetative residues present, differing organic matter decomposition rates, and differing hydrological processes. Deforestation was also found to change the species composition of seedlings and saplings in the coppice in comparison to the forest, reducing oak numbers and increasing hornbeam recruitment.     

西双版纳州林地变更调查分析

本文采用卫星遥感影像与实地调查、查阅林地管理档案信息相结合的方法对西双版纳傣族自治州2017年林地变更情况进行了调查,同时将结果与2016年林地变更调查结果比对,并分析了林地资源现状、森林覆盖率变化情况、林地动态变化和原因。结果表明,西双版纳州2017年林地面积总量净增227.58hm^2,同比增加0.02%,其中,有林地(乔木林)面积减少2072.29hm^2,疏林地面积净增145.23hm^2,灌木林地面积净增1112.25hm^2,未成林地面积减少1131.69hm^2,苗圃地面积净增3.66hm^2、无立木林地面积净增3154.78hm^2、宜林地面积减少1006.35hm^2,林业辅助生产用地面积净增21.99hm^2。     

Intensive plantation cropping,a source of sustainable food and energy production in the tropical rain forest areas in southeast Asia

About 90% of the annual losses of tropical rain forests are caused by transformation into arable land. Most of the cropping activities on the former forest land are characterised by low input, partly shifting cultivation practices, leading to fast degradation of the lands which are finally abandoned owing to infertility. Success in protecting land from further degradation is determined by the economic viability of the respective system. Therefore, sustainability of agricultural systems depends on their economic sustainability. Intensive plantation cropping on former rain forest land appears to offer such an incentive to prevent the land from further degradation by employing the best technology available.Examples of intensive oil palm cultivation as a sustainable cropping system, in terms of economy and ecology, are given. Oil palm cultivation in a suitable environment outyields most annual crops and reveals a significant potential for efficient conversion of solar energy.With the employment of sound agronomic measures the present production potential can be fully realised and new techniques in the production of tissue cultured planting material provide further improved economic viability and environmentally sound cropping systems. Such an intensification offers excellent prospects for reducing the rate of deforestation in the humid tropics.     

Analysis of forest landscape dynamics based on Forest Landscape Restoration: a case study of Yong’an city,Fujian province,China

Forest landscape restoration (FLR) is a process that aims to regain ecological integrity and enhance human well-being in deforested or degraded forest landscapes. To ensure that restoration efforts are successful, the first step is to understand the dynamics of the forest landscape and the dominant forces responsible for its change. Taking Yong’an city, Fujian province in China as a case for study, this paper constructed a Markov model to predict the dynamics of the forest landscape based on sample-plot data of Continuous Forest Inventory at a county level. The study area was divided into eight landscape element types based on FLR, including approximated primary forest, secondary broad-leaved forest, secondary forest of Pinus massoniana, natural bamboo forest, planted forest, non-timber product forest, degraded forest land and non-forestry land. The analysis showed the following: (1) the extent of reforestation of planted forest, non-timber product forest and secondary forest of Pinus massoniana would be greater than that of deforestation of approximated primary forest, broad-leaved secondary forest and natural bamboo forest. Therefore, the total area covered by forest would increase steadily. (2) Conversely, conversion among different landscape element types would occur frequently and have high transition proportions. (3) Remarkable decrease of the extent of approximated primary forest, together with the conversion from degraded forest land to secondary forest, would probably result in the decline of forest volume. (4) Forest productivity in the meantime will not be maintained or enhanced because of the conversion from secondary forest to planted forest. These results suggest that the direct and underlying driving force of landscape dynamics should be understood and addressed in the upcoming studies for remnant approximated primary forest protection, secondary forest management and degraded forest land rehabilitation. The conclusion is that the Markov model can be used to analyze the forest landscape dynamics for FLR based on sample-plot survey data of Continuous Forest Inventory at a county level.     

Spatial Modeling of Tropical Deforestation Using Socioeconomic and Biophysical Data

Tropical forests are disappearing at an alarming rate. In Central America, a hectare of forest is cleared for agriculture every 5 min. This study was conducted in a forested 4,000 ha watershed of central Honduras to find deforestation causes based on socio-economic characteristics of population. First, a multitemporal analysis of Landsat TM imagery was conducted to determine deforestation rates and agricultural–forest boundaries. A GIS buffer procedure allowed determining which households were at the deforestation front and which households were located at the rest of the area (control). GIS techniques were used to extract biophysical information such as slope, elevation, land cover, temperature, precipitation, etc. Then, we set up a data base with more than 50 socioeconomic variables (level of education, income, children per family, major economic activity, use of conservation practices, etc.). Around 500 households, distributed all over the watershed, were visited, interviewed and GPS-located. A multivariate statistical analysis allowed an exploratory analysis to eliminate non useful and redundant variables and then to determine what variables appear to be important predictors of deforestation behavior among rural families. A resulting logistic regression model showed that household with lower annual income heads and with less use of conservation practices were more statistically prone to clear the forest (α = 0.001). The study uncovered the complexity of this problem and confirmed the need of using GIS–remote sensing techniques to combine socioeconomic and environmental data in several time–space dimensions to find the causes and trends of tropical deforestation.     

Property rights,land conflicts and deforestation in the Eastern Amazon

In the Brazilian Amazon, insecure property rights are among the main causes of land conflicts and deforestation. Through an in-depth empirical case study in Maranhao in the Eastern Amazon, this research analyzes how distorted agrarian, forest and environmental policies, laws and regulations originated insecure property rights not only over land, but also over timber, which allied to social and political factors, such as uneven distribution of land and strong organization of landless peasants, led to land conflicts and deforestation. This paper also shows that the causes of and the several actors involved in the deforestation of the Amazon were not independent, rather they were related and interact to each other. Compatibility between environmental goals and agrarian policies, regulations and laws are necessary to provide secure and clear property rights to allow a better enforcement of environmental regulations and to give actors incentives to avoid deforestation.     

Land and forests in the Anthropocene: Trends and outlooks in Asia

Forest cover change is one of the defining contemporary environmental changes that validate the proposition of the Anthropocene narrative. Forest transition is a well-recognized global phenomenon, which has been studied and explained in well elaborated forest transition theory. Forest transition has been observed in over 30 countries, and it has been a trend in multiple countries in Asia. Forest transition is most relevant for the Anthropocene narrative, as it suggests that forest cover decline may eventually be followed by a forest cover increase at the global scale. The paper reviews evidence of forest transition in eight Asian countries and juxtaposes this with global forest cover trends. In Asia countries like China, India, Japan, Philippines, South Korea, and Japan and Vietnam are among the countries that have experienced an increase in the area under some kind of tree cover. Complex interplays of forest cover, population growth, economic development, demand for forest goods and services and governance effectiveness are the driving forces of forest transition. While it is not possible to extrapolate Asia's forest transition to the global scale, the Asian experience makes it possible to make statements on possible global forest cover scenarios. Ultimately, forest transition theory in general, and the experience of forest transition in Asia also support the concept and related narrative of the Anthropocene.     

For services rendered? Modeling hydrology and livelihoods in Andean payments for environmental services schemes

In the Andes, demand for water is growing and upland land-use changes are increasing. Water quality, quantity and seasonal flow have thus also become environmental services with potential monetary value. Yet, currently the region's pioneer PES schemes are not paying for measured environmental services, but for proxy land uses thought to provide the(se) service(s). Hydrological modeling makes explicit the tacit causal relationships and tests underlying assumptions. Ideally, when combined with an economic analysis of land-use alternatives, this could inform decision makers on how much to pay for different interventions in different spatial locations. This paper focuses on two Andean watersheds: Moyobamba (Peru) and Pimampiro (Ecuador). In the first case, a municipal water company is preparing a payment for environmental services (PES) scheme to reduce upstream sediment loads. In the second, a similar conservation-oriented municipal PES scheme has operated since 2000, but the hydrological linkages have never been tested. Applying the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we identify in both watersheds biophysically critical areas for service delivery, and compare services for current land uses with change scenarios: deforestation, reforestation, live barriers, and agroforestry. We then use the ECOSAUT optimization model to predict net economic benefits for service providers. In Moyobamba, switching to shade-grown coffee would halve sediment yields, and increase significantly farmers’ economic benefits. This requires high up-front investment, but the willingness to pay of water users in Moyobamba town may suffice to cover the upfront costs. In Pimampiro, resumed deforestation would increase sediments by >50% and reduce dry-season flow by 0.5%, thus reinforcing the rationale of the existing PES scheme, focused on conserving native forests and grasslands.     

Deforestation since independence: a quantitative assessment of four decades of land-cover change in Malawi

Land cover has changed rapidly across the tropics over the past century; however, detailed historical information describing the extent and possible drivers of such change is widely lacking. Here, we constructed a history of land-cover change at the district level in Malawi over a 37-year period from 1972 to 2009, the immediate post-colonial phase. Overall, there was a loss of 12 760?km2?(36%) of original forested area but also 11 161?km2?of new forest establishment, resulting in a relatively modest overall net loss of 1 599?km2?(5%). We correlated changes in deforestation and forest establishment with changes in socio-economic variables derived from spatially explicit data from the same time period. Deforestation was positively correlated with (in order of influence) changes in male school attendance, sex ratio, population density, hospital bed numbers, protected areas and dependency rate, but negatively correlated with changes in cattle density; forest establishment broadly showed the inverse relationships with the same variables. Although direct drivers of deforestation are well known for Malawi and much of Africa, the significance of socio-economic variables within this study can help to understand the underlying social pressures behind such drivers. In particular, development, population pressure and demographic factors are important predictors of deforestation rate within our study area.     

文峪河流域景观格局动态及其驱动力分析

以文峪河流域为研究对象,分析流域2000—2018年景观格局数量动态的面积、转移及速度特征.从斑块类型尺度与景观尺度2个层面选取景观指数分析流域近18年的景观格局动态,并在流域尺度上沿城市—林区梯度线分析沿线景观格局指数的梯度分布,基于数量统计模型对景观格局动态驱动力进行研究.结果表明,流域耕地、林地、草地面积有所减少...     

Forest Dilemma in the Hindu Raj Mountains Northern Pakistan: Impact of Population Growth and Household Dynamics

Mountain ecosystems are fragile and sensitive to changes. The past few decades have witnessed substantial changes in every aspect of the bio-physical and socio-cultural environment of the northern mountainous belt of Pakistan. Population growth and the associated household dynamics accompanied by agricultural and economic transformations and improvements in transportation network have initiated and accelerated unprecedented changes in the bio-physical setup particularly land use patterns and distribution of natural resources. Forests resources are one of the most important natural assets of this region and several communities in remote mountainous areas of the region still depend on these resources for subsistence. The present study aims to explore the changes occurring in the socio-economic environment particularly population growth and household dynamics and their impacts on forest cover and diversity of the Hindu Raj Mountains of northern Pakistan. The study relies on remote sensing and GIS technology for characterizing forest cover dynamics and questionnaire data for household changes. Findings reveal that significant changes have occurred in the basic household characteristics and population changes are resulting in a high rate of deforestation in the study area.     

Deforestation and forest restoration in Guanacaste,Costa Rica: Putting conservation policies in context

Traditionally Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) studies have focused on processes of negative land-cover change, primarily deforestation, partially because examples of positive land-cover change were not common. During the last two decades an outstanding tropical dry forest restoration process had taken place in the province of Guanacaste, Costa Rica, which has given us a unique opportunity to study how and why tropical dry forest regrowth occurs. The purpose of this paper is to undertake a retrospective analysis of the social dynamics of forest deforestation and restoration in Guanacaste from 1960 to 2005. Hence we investigate how structural drivers shape patterns of forest-cover change and examine how the role that Costa Rica's conservation policies had played in promoting forest restoration. Our study combined analyses of socioeconomic data and satellite images of forest cover. We showed that forest regrowth observed in Guanacaste after the 1980s was the result of multiple socioeconomic factors. Our results indicate that the degree of incentive provided by conservation policies such as Payment for Environmental Services are not enough to ensure that Guanacaste's forest will be protected against the potentially negative impacts of future socioeconomic changes. The findings from our analysis can assist decision-makers and managers in other regions to understand how social, economic and political dynamics impact the effectiveness of forest conservation efforts.