杉木人工林林分断面积生长模型的贝叶斯法估计

以江西杉木人工林为例,以Korf型、Richards型和Hossfeld型3种模型为基础,通过广义代数差分法(GADA)分别建立杉木林分断面积生长模型。结果表明:以Richards型为基础的杉木林分断面积预测精度最高,以Richards型模型为最优模型,分别基于贝叶斯法和传统法(非线性最小二乘法)估计杉木林分断面积生长模型。研究发现,利用贝叶斯法估计杉木林分断面积生长模型,预测精度相当且预测值的可靠性比传统法好。     

杉木人工林优势高生长模拟及多形地位指数方程

采用差分法构建以Korf等 6种理论生长方程为基础的多种多形地位指数方程 ,探讨它们的多形表达涵义 ,并对其模拟性能进行了较为全面的分析 ,得到结论 :(1)基于理论生长方程 ,通过差分法可以构建具有良好生物学基础的多形优势高方程 ;(2 )理论生长方程的拐点取值情形对其模拟优势高生长的精度具有至关重要的影响作用 ;(3)差分方程较方程原型更适合于大范围数据的拟合 ,如数据基础为地区或产区层次时 ,其拟合效果明显要好 ;(4 )多形优势高方程展现出了较高的模拟精度 ,其中以Korf、Richards、Weibull方程的 2参数多形表达式及Sloboda方程的 3参数多形表达式为佳 ,采用优良的多形优势高生长模型可以构建说理性完备的多形地位指数方程。     

基于理论模型及其差分方程的湖北省杉木立地指数表研制

以湖北省杉木主要栽培区的92块标准地优势木解析资料为基础数据,利用7种理论生长方程以及其中5种模型的差分方程进行优势高生长模型的拟合,选择较优树高生长模型分别采用导向曲线法和差分方程法编制立地指数表,并通过检验和对比分析选择较适于本地区杉木人工林立地指数表的编制方法和类型。结果表明:理论生长方程及其差分方程构建的树高生长模型均具有良好的拟合优度,两者的决定系数分别超过了0.85和0.98,经模拟检验和残差分析,后者拟合精度明显优于前者,而理查德理论模型及其差分方程均优于其他生长方程构建的模型。选择理查德模型和考尔夫模型差分方程为基础方程,以20a为标准年龄和2m为指数级,分别采用相应的导向曲线法和差分方程法编制单形和多形立地指数表,两者均达到了显著性检验,但多形立地指数表预测精度更高,更适于湖北省杉木人工林的立地评价。     

华北落叶松人工林差分地位指数模型构建

以阴山山地苏木山林场华北落叶松人工林为研究对象,利用43株解析木数据,基于Richards方程构建差分地位指数模型。结果表明:差分模型拟合结果明显优于基础模型,R²均在0.96以上,RMSE在0.86~0.96之间,MAE在0.42以下。ADA法推导的模型,以b或c为自由参数拟合结果要好于以a为自由参数;GADA法推导的模型,假设自由参数c与变量X₀成线性关系更合理。通过统计分析、残差分析和地位指数曲线簇比较,采用GADA法,假设自由参数a=e^X₀,c=c₁+c₂X₀所推导的差分模型为最佳模型,满足生物学和统计学两方面的要求。地位指数越大,优势木树高及其连年生长量的极值也越大,到达拐点的时间也越早。研究结果可为华北落叶松人工林立地质量科学评价提供依据。     

与年龄无关的马尾松优势高生长模型研究

目的 通过构建与年龄无关的理论生长方程,用于预测在年龄未知或不是有效影响因子时的马尾松人工林优势高。 方法 基于常用的Hossfeld IV、Lundqvist-Kolf、Richards、Schumacher等4个理论生长方程,推导其不含年龄因子的差分形式,构建与地位指数相关的可变参数、与年龄无关的马尾松优势高模型。 结果 在4种基础理论生长模型中,以Richards模型建立的与年龄有关的马尾松人工林优势高生长模型效果最优。与年龄无关模型的拟合精度均高于与年龄有关模型的拟合精度,Richards模型和Korf模型差分形式建立的与年龄无关的马尾松人工林优势高生长模型效果最优。在引入地位指数时,Hossfeld模型的拟合精度提高效果最明显,且以设定k为可变参数时,建立与年龄无关的马尾松人工林优势高生长模型效果最优。 结论 在异龄林或年龄难以获得时,与年龄无关的理论生长模型能够预测优势高的生长,将地位指数与可变参数建立函数关系代入模型拟合后,模型精度提高,可以更好地应用于预测林分生长。     

基于不同立地因子的杉木与马尾松地位指数相关模型

偏差较大、精度不够高是地位指数相关模型应用的关键问题.通过科学地划分雪峰山地区的立地因子,有效地选择立地因子,采用SPSS对雪峰山地区324块同时具有杉木和马尾松地位指数值数据的样地进行11种方程的模拟分析,建立了基于立地因子的雪峰山杉木与马尾松地位指数相关模型,模拟效果较好;预测误差绝对差值分布在0~0.7 m之间,95%以上分布在0.3 m左右.解决了地位指数代换偏差较大、精度不够高的问题,提高了模型的实用性能.     

湿地松多形与单形地位指数曲线模型的对比研究

选用吉安地区湿地松栽培区10个县(市)的385株具有代表性的平均优势木.以理查德(Richards)函数为基本模型.采用标准差法、变动系数法、相对树高法、比例法,差分方程法和多形曲线等展开成地位指数曲线。通过拟合精度检验.结果表明:由于不同地位指数优势木树高的生长过程曲线簇存在着多形特性.多形模型的预估精度明显高于单形模型。因此.以建立多形模型为宜。     

GM(1,1)模型与曲线Ae~(ak)的拟合效果分析

本文应用灰色系统理论的基本方法,对 GM(1,1)灰色模型与指数曲线 Ae~(ak)拟合进行比较。经实例证明,GM(1,1)模型不是唯一的最佳预测方法,当原始数列呈较强的指数变化时采用指数曲线 Ae~(ak)拟合预测,计算简单,精度高。     

针叶林标准化地位指数在大兴安岭林区立地质量评价中的应用(英文)

本文采用两点法原理和方法，对大兴安岭地区的落叶松和樟子松人工林地位指数表进行分析，建立了大兴安岭人工针叶林标准化生长模型，按模型导出各生长指数级和各龄阶理论值，并建立了标准化地位指数表。理论值检验结果表明，该标准化地位指数表符合精度要求。本项研究解决了大兴安岭地区针叶林同一立地类型不同树种地位指数和不同树种不同立地类型地位指数间的相互转换。     

基岩质海岸防护林主要林分类型土壤抗冲性研究

对浙江省沿海基岩质海岸防护林主要林分类型土壤抗冲性和理化性质进行测定,6种林分类型各土层抗冲指数都高于无林地,对于同一林分类型而言,0～20 cm土层的抗冲性指数均高于>20～40 cm土层,差距在1.30～0.07;相关分析表明,土壤抗冲指数与土壤容重、土壤有机质含量成显著相关,与土壤总空隙度成极显著相关,并建立了土壤抗冲指数与这3个因子之间的线性回归模型。采用聚类分析对不同林分类型土壤抗冲性能进行综合评价和分类,可分为4类,北江荛花檵木混交林为抗冲性能最强类,化香纯林为抗冲性能较强类,湿地松木荷混交林、湿地松枫香混交林、湿地松纯林、枫香纯林归为抗冲性能一般类,无林地为土壤渗透性较弱类。     

Generalized Algebraic Difference Site Index Model for Ponderosa Pine in British Columbia,Canada

Based upon 3 widely used base models, a total of 8 ADA/GADA site index models were derived.The data for these models in this study were obtained from 79 pith-split stem analysis plots and the estimation method was "indicator variable approach".We used both fit statistics and visual analysis to select the best-fit model,and attached more importance to the visual analysis.A comprehensive application analysis was also given to the selected model.The results showed:1) GADA outperformed ADA with respect to predictions.2) A GADA model derived from HossfeldⅣpresented the best prediction ability.It was suggested that the model be used to predict dominant height and to estimate site index for ponderosa pine stands ranging 30 -200 years in British Columbia,Canada.3) The best site index age was age of 100 years,based upon relative errors of predictions.     

Modelling dominant height growth in plantations of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco in Spain

A model for predicting dominant height growth and site index of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco in Spain was constructed. Data from stem analysis of 117 site trees were used. Four dynamic equations using the algebraic difference approach (ADA) and its generalisation (GADA), which have provided good results in previous studies, were evaluated. The model parameters were estimated with the base?age?invariant method of dummy variables, which considers both global (common to all sites) and local parameters (specific to each site). A GADA equation based on the Bertalanffy–Richards base model yielded the best results. The model provides polymorphic curves with multiple asymptotes. A base age of 20 years is proposed to reference site index.     

Development of a system to predict the evolution of individual tree mature cork caliber over time

The development of a model for the prediction of the evolution of individual tree cork caliber over time, from a measurement taken at a certain point in time, was the main objective of this work. The model includes three sub-models: a model to predict the thickness of complete rings from cork caliber at tc years; a cork growth model (for complete rings) and a model to predict cork caliber at age tc from the corresponding thickness of (tc − 1) complete rings. The algebraic difference approach (ADA) as well as the generalized algebraic difference approach (GADA) were used in modeling cork growth. Several base models with one or two site-tree-specific parameters were fitted to the data using the dummy variable approach. The selection of the cork growth model was based on several criteria: fitting ability, prediction performance evaluated through the PRESS residuals and behaviour screened with available knowledge on the cork growth process. The ADA model derived from the log-logistic function with the asymptote as free parameter was selected. The models developed to predict cork caliber and the corresponding thickness of complete rings were based in the linear relationship between the two variables. The two models were simultaneously fitted using two stage least squares approach. The predicted thickness of cork complete rings in a 9-year old cork is proposed as a cork growth index. The distribution of this index can be used to characterize the potential of a site for cork production.     

基于立地混合效应的湖南丘陵平原区杉木多形立地指数模型研究

目的 研究林分立地因子对立地指数的影响,构建含立地混合效应的立地指数模型,以解决区域性立地指数模型精度低的问题。 方法 基于湖南丘陵平原地区360组杉木平均优势木高-年龄数据,利用数量化方法Ⅰ对影响林分优势高生长的立地因子进行显著性分析,并选取P＜0.05的立地因子作为主导因子;采用8种常用的立地指数方程进行基础模型选择,以主导立地因子及其组合作随机效应,确定包含立地效应的立地指数模型。运用AIC、BIC、Log-likelihood和R2等4个评价指标比较不同组合类型的模拟精度,选取最优随机效应组合。采用K-means聚类划分立地类型组,以解决复杂立地类型的模型应用问题。 结果 1）基于数量化方法Ⅰ的显著性分析结果显示：对林分优势高具有显著影响的立地因子有海拔、坡度、坡向与土壤类型,其显著性顺序为土壤类型＞海拔＞坡向＞坡度。2）10个候选基础模型的拟合精度均较低（R2=0.424 3～0.564 4）,本研究选取M4（R2=0.564 4）作为构建多形立地指数曲线的基础模型。3）将不同立地因子及其组合作随机效应构建非线性混合模型,确定系数R2从0.424 3～0.564 4提高到0.565 5～0.808 9,模型拟合精度的高低与主导立地因子的显著性紧密相关,其中含立地类型的混合模型模拟精度最高（R2=0.808 9）。4）以确定系数≥0.99为聚类精度标准,将研究区立地类型划分为11个立地类型组,含立地类型组的混合模型在便于应用的同时,提高了建模精度（R2=0.811 7）。 结论 含立地随机效应的立地指数曲线模型可以显著提高区域复杂立地类型的立地建模精度。     

Site index models for Calabrian pine in the central Mediterranean region of Turkey

Stem analysis data of 432 trees were obtained from even-aged, pure natural stands of Calabrian pine in the central Mediterranean Region of Turkey. Eight dynamic site equations derived with the Generalized Algebraic Difference Approach (GADA) were compared, based on autoregressive analysis and a thorough evaluation of the goodness of fit. We used generalized nonlinear least squares methods for model fitting. The adjusted coefficients of determination (0.9825–0.9842), root-mean-square errors (0.8004–0.8435 m), and Akaike’s information criterion differences (0–145) indicated a good fit of the eight site index equations. The Hossfeld equation (M3) provided the best result. The Durbin-Watson test statistic did not reveal an autocorrelation issue while the Hossfeld equation provided a satisfactory solution to the serial correlation problem in stem analysis data as time series using autoregressive modeling. This study presents new site index models for Calabrian pine forests in the central Mediterranean region of Turkey where it is the most important commercial tree species. The site index equation, based on the Hossfeld model is recommended for height growth prediction and site classification of Calabrian pine stands in the central Mediterranean region of Turkey, providing a new basis for growth prediction and yield estimation in these important forest ecosystems.     

New dynamic site equation that fits best the Schwappach data for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Central Europe

Using historical growth series data of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Central Europe we examine all the dynamic site equations previously used for modeling the height growth of this species as well as a new dynamic site equation that has not been used previously in the context of this forestry data. The tested models included two groups of anamorphic and polymorphic dynamic site equations (three-dimensional site–height–age models, such as Y = f(t,t₀,y₀)). One group of the models is based on the algebraic difference approach (ADA) implementation of different, preexisting base equations (two-dimensional equations, such as Y = f(t)). The other group of models is based on newer generalized algebraic difference approach (GADA) formulations of new site–height–age relationships that may use older models only as a part of their structure. The models were selected because they were relevant to Scots pine height growth modeling in other studies. We compared all the models with each other in terms of the sum of square deviations associated with fitting them simultaneously to all sites represented by the Scots pine data. All the fits were based on base-age invariant stochastic regressions, in which the global model parameters that are common to all growth series are estimated simultaneously with the site-specific effects that are different for each of the site productivity series. Cieszewski's model [Cieszewski, C.J., 2005. A new flexible GADA based dynamic site equation with polymorphism and variable asymptotes. PMRC Technical Report 2005-2] best described the data.     

A site dependent top height growth model for hybrid aspen

In this study height growth models for hybrid aspen were developed using three growth equations. The mean age of the hybrid aspen was 21 years (range 15?51 years) with a mean stand density of 946 stems...     

山东省侧柏人工林立地指数表的编制

以20个县291个侧柏人工林标准地数据作为编表材料,从7个数学模型中选定理查德(Richards)式H=11.455 1-e-0.025()A 1.286作为导向曲线,基准年龄为40年,指数级距为1m,运用相对优势高法导出立地指数表。拟合显著性检验和预报精度检验表明:所编地位指数表精度较高,可用于山东省侧柏人工林立地质量评价。     

杉木人工林地位指数表简捷编制方法研究

利用浙江省开化林场杉木人工林36块标准地和144株解析木资料,比较分析5个树高生长模型后,选择Krof式生长函数H=aexp(-b/Ac)作为优势高生长模型。在分析优势高生长过程的基础上,确定基准年龄为20a,立地指数级距为2m。通过公式变形和推导,使用较简捷的方法编制了浙江省开化林场杉木人工林立地指数表。检验结果表明所编立地指数表精度符合要求。