Short-term forecasting of daily crop evapotranspiration using the ‘Kc-ETo’ approach and public weather forecasts

Short-term forecasting of daily crop evapotranspiration (ET_c) is essential for real-time irrigation management. This study proposed a methodology to forecast short-term daily ET_c using the ‘K_c-ET_o’ approach and public weather forecasts. Daily reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) forecasts were obtained using a locally calibrated version of the Hargreaves-Samani (HS) model and temperature forecasts, while the crop coefficient (K_c) was estimated from observed daily ET_o and ET_c. The methodology was evaluated by comparing the daily ET_c forecasts with measured ET_c values from a field irrigation experiment during 2012–2014 in Yongkang Irrigation Experimental Station, China. The overall average of the statistical indices was in the range of 0.96–1.27 mm d^?1 for the mean absolute error (MAE), 1.53–2.55 mm d^?1 for the mean square error (MSE), 1.77–2.30 mm d^?1 for the normalized mean square error (NMSE), 27.5–29.4% for the mean relative error (MRE), 0.71–0.44 for the correlation coefficient (R) and 0.46–0.05 for the mean square error skill score (MSESS). Sources of error werewere K_c estion, temperature forecasts and HS model that does not consider wind speed and humidity, and.the largesourceof error is K_c determination, which suggested that care should be taken when forecasting ET_c with estimated K_c values in the study area.     

西北旱区石羊河流域作物耗水点面尺度转化方法的研究

基于DEM与GIS空间分析功能研究了石羊河流域主要农作物春小麦需水量ET_c的时空分异规律。根据8个气象站近50年气象资料,应用1998年FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith公式计算参考作物蒸发蒸腾量ET₀,由收集到的春小麦需水量试验资料获得多年平均作物系数K_c。近50年来流域上游的古浪、天祝春小麦全生育期ET_c呈微弱的增加趋势,中游的凉州区表现出极显著的减少趋势,其他站减少趋势不显著。确立了ET_c与海拔高度、纬度、坡向的多元回归关系,借助Arcview3.3、ArcGIS9.0与Visual Basic6.0软件实现了春小麦ET_c的空间尺度转换,并分析了石羊河流域25%、50%、75%三个不同水文年春小麦ET_c的空间变异情况。石羊河流域春小麦ET_c由山区向绿洲平原递增,多年平均值为270～591 mm。估计值与计算值相差在11.1%以内。     

农业技术和气候变化对农作物产量和蒸散量的影响

随着农业生产条件的改善、品种改进和有利的气象条件的变化, 世界各地的作物产量得到大幅度提高, 但作物的蒸散量却未出现大幅度提高。本文以石家庄气象站1955~2007 年的气象资料为基础, 分析了河北省冬小麦和夏玉米生长期间主要气象因素变化, 结合中国科学院栾城农业生态系统试验站长期定位灌溉试验的研究结果, 分析了农业生产条件和气象因子变化对冬小麦和夏玉米产量及耗水量的影响。结果表明,1955~2007 年冬小麦和夏玉米生长季的气象因子发生了变化, 日照时数、相对湿度、风速、气温日较差显著降低, 最低气温、平均气温和积温显著升高, 气象因子的变化对作物总蒸散量未产生明显影响, 但由于降水减少,作物生长期间的灌溉需水量呈增加趋势。长期灌溉试验结果表明, 随着农业生产条件的变化和品种的改良, 冬小麦和夏玉米的产量不断增加, 而耗水量的增加幅度小于产量增加幅度, 夏玉米的耗水量呈稳定状态。节水技术的推广和应用对维持耗水量稳定起着非常关键的作用。     

Evaluation of wheat and maize evapotranspiration determination by direct use of the Penman–Monteith equation in a semi-arid region

The Penman–Monteith (PM) equation was introduced as one of the most reliable equations to determine crop ET_c, without using crop coefficient or ET_o values. In this study, the PM equation was evaluated using lysimeters in a semi-arid region for wheat and maize. Different equations for aerodynamic resistance (r _a) and canopy resistance (r _c) were tested in the PM equation and they were ranked using statistical analysis. It was shown that the combined method of r _a and r _c in FAO-56 does not lead to a good prediction of ET_c for wheat and maize in comparison with the lysimeter-measured data. The results indicated that a modified equation for r _c was the most accurate method for both wheat and maize. Using this equation, the suggested model of FAO-56 and another investigation for r _a led to the best results for wheat and maize, respectively. Furthermore, it was shown that the previously modified equation for r _c was newly modified as a function of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the results were as accurate as before. Therefore, an equation as a function of VPD can be used when solar radiation (R _n) is not available easily.     

Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the western half of Iran

Reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) is an important element of the hydrological cycle, and changes in ET_o are of great significance for agricultural water use planning, irrigation system design and management. In this study, annual, seasonal and monthly trends in the Penman-Monteith ET_o at 20 meteorological stations during 1966-2005 in the western half of Iran were examined using the Mann-Kendall test, the Sen's slope estimator and the linear regression. Annual analysis of the ET_o series indicated a positive trend in 70% of the stations according to the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope estimator and in 75% of the stations according to the linear regression. The magnitude of significant positive trends in annual ET_o varied from (+)11.28 to (+)2.30 mm/year. On the seasonal scale, stronger increasing trends were identified in ET_o data in winter and summer compared with those in autumn and spring. Meanwhile, the highest numbers of stations with significant trends were found in the monthly ET_o series in February, while the lowest numbers of stations with significant trends were observed in November. Analysis of the impact of climatic variables on the significant increasing trend in ET_o showed that the increasing trend was mainly caused by a significant increase in air temperature during the study period.     

波文比仪与蒸渗仪测定作物蒸发蒸腾量对比

为了更准确地估算作物蒸发蒸腾量,该文结合波文比仪和大型称重式蒸渗仪,对波文比-能量平衡法估算的冬小麦蒸发蒸腾量（ET_b）和蒸渗仪实测的冬小麦蒸发蒸腾量（ET_l）进行了分析研究。结果表明,波文比计算值（ET_b）和蒸渗仪实测值（ET_l）的变化趋势基本一致,相关性比较好。波文比计算值（ET_b）和蒸渗仪实测值（ET_l）的日变化曲线都呈单峰型,早晚小,中午大,夜间多为负值,波文比计算值的日变化比较稳定,蒸渗仪实测值的日变化比较敏感。风速较大时,蒸渗仪实测值日变化随风速的增大而减小的趋势比较明显,波文比计算值日变化受大的风速影响较小;风速较小时,波文比计算值和蒸渗仪实测值的日变化与风速呈很弱的负相关关系。波文比计算值日变化和太阳净辐射日变化的关系比较密切,蒸渗仪实测值日变化和太阳净辐射日变化的关系不是很明显。波文比计算值更能稳定地反映出冬小麦蒸发蒸腾量的日变化规律。     

利用小蒸发皿观测资料确定参考作物蒸散量方法研究

参考作物蒸散量是土壤－植被－大气系统水分能量平衡模型的重要参数,如何准确获得将直接影响模型应用和最终模拟预测精度。该文利用分布于黄土高原地区65个气象站1971～2000年的气象资料,以FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith方法确定的参考作物蒸散量为标准,提出了根据平均相对湿度与风速为变量确定由20 cm小蒸发皿观测的水面蒸发量计算参考作物蒸散量的系数Kp。结果表明：由蒸发皿观测值计算的3 d或更长尺度的ET₀与Penman-Monteith方法计算的ET₀结果一致性很高,在对Kp方程系数进行适当的地域性调整后,由蒸发皿观测值和Kp确定的ET₀与Penman-Monteith方法确定的ET₀结果一致,从而认为在黄土高原地区参考作物蒸散量计算可以应用20 cm蒸发皿系数法。     

Determination of actual evapotranspiration and crop coefficients of broad bean (Vicia Faba L.) grown under field conditions in the jordan valley,jordan: Bestimmung der aktuellen evapotranspiration und pflanzenbestandskoeffizienten von bohnen (Vicia Faba L.) unter feldbedingungen im jordantal,jordanien

This study was conducted to determine actual evapotranspiration and crop coefficients at different growth stages of broad bean (Vicia faba L.) grown in an open field in the Jordan Valley, Jordan using a precise and accurate approach. The study involved 30-min fluxes measurements of energy budget components over broad bean crop using a complete setup of an Eddy Correlation (EC) system. The measurements were conducted during the three main crop growth stages namely initial, development, and midseason growth stages following the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) crop coefficient model for green harvested broad bean crop. The average crop coefficients during the initial (K_{C ini}), development (K_{C dev}) and midseason (K_{C mid}) growth stages were 0.37, 0.8 and 1.05, respectively. The measured weighted average crop coefficient over the entire growing season K_{C GS} was 9.5% lower than the FAO corresponding value.

Results showed that there was a clear decrease of (bulk) surface resistance (r_s) as crop canopy developed. Daily average r_s values were 855, 337, and 166?s/m for initial, development, and midseason growth stages, respectively. Moreover, r_s was found to be highly correlated to crop height (h_c). A simple linear relation between r_s and h_c with R² of 0.91 was found. This relation will enable future direct determination of crop evapotranspiration (ET_C) using Penman-Monteith equation without the need to calculate both grass reference evapotranspiration (ET_O) and crop coefficient (K_C) values.     

Comparison of artificial neural networks and prediction models for reference evapotranspiration estimation in a semi-arid region

Estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) is essential for determination of crop water requirements. In this research, Penman–FAO (P-FAO) and Penman–Monteith (PM) equations were calibrated and validated by lysimeter-measured ET_o with six and four weather parameters. Furthermore, two input structures (six and four weather parameters) to artificial neural networks (ANNs) were investigated. Results showed that the accuracy of the PM equation is greater than that of the P-FAO equation. An empirical equation was developed to estimate daily ET_o using mean daily temperature and relative humidity, and sunshine hours. The accuracy of the equation to estimate daily ET_o using smooth weather data is greater than that of an equation using original data. Furthermore, ANNs were able to estimate ET_o properly. The accuracy of ANNs with six inputs is higher than that obtained using the P-FAO equation and is similar to that determined using the PM equation. A decrease in number of inputs to ANNs generally decreased the accuracy of estimation, however, ANNs were able to estimate ET_o properly when wind speed and solar radiation were unavailable. Furthermore, the accuracy of ANNs, with four input parameters is greater than that obtained using the PM equation and is similar to that obtained with P–FAO and the developed empirical equations.     

Evaluation of some equations for estimating evapotranspiration in the south of Iran

The Penman–Monteith (PM) equation is the most common method of estimating reference crop evapotranspiration (ET _o) for different climates of the world. This equation needs full weather data, however, few stations with complete weather data exist in Fars Province, in the south of Iran. Therefore, other equations based on more readily available weather data, such as temperature and rainfall, can be used instead of the PM equation in Fars Province. Four calibrated equations have been proposed in previous studies for Fars Province using weather data up to 2000. These equations were the Hargreaves equation (H), a new equation based on monthly temperature and rainfall (R), the Thornthwaite equation (T) and the Blaney–Criddle equation (B). Using weather data for 2001 to 2006 from 14 stations in Fars Province and outside the province, this study determined the best equations for estimating ET _o in each month and each station, rather than using the PM equation. The results revealed that equations H, R, T and B showed a good correlation to the PM equation, and can be used to estimate monthly ET _o in the study area. Also, the best equation for each location in Fars Province in each month of the year can be determined by using prepared distribution maps. Furthermore, the results showed that there was no specific relationship between the climate at the station and the best equation for estimating ET _o.     

基于随机样本的神经网络模型估算参考作物腾发量

参考作物腾发量(ET₀)是计算作物需水量、制定灌溉制度和进行水资源管理的主要参数之一。计算参考作物腾发量(ET₀)的方法众多,为规范ET₀的求法,联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐采用修改的Penman-Monteith方法。该文指出不需要收集长序列气象资料,而以随机样本建立学习速率和动量因子自适应的BP神经网络模型估算参考作物腾发量(ET₀)的方法,并且与FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith法计算值对比分析,结果表明：利用随机样本建立的的BP神经网络模型可以很好的反映气象因子(最高温度、最低温度、最大湿度、最小湿度、净辐射和风速)与参考作物腾发量(ET₀)的非线性函数映射关系,并且取得了良好的估算效果,给出了国家自然科学基金重点项目研究区内蓝旗试验站2004年的时间尺度为日、十日参考作物腾发量(ET₀)的计算及对比分析过程。     

Changes in N leaching and crop production as a result of measures to reduce N losses to water in a 6‐yr crop rotation

The effects of various measures introduced to increase nitrogen (N)‐use efficiency and reduce N losses to water in a 6‐yr crop rotation (winter wheat, spring barley, green manure, winter wheat, spring barley, spring oilseed rape) were examined with respect to N leaching, soil mineral N (SMN) accumulation and grain yield. An N‐use efficient system (NUE) with delayed tillage until late autumn and spring, direct drilling of winter wheat, earlier sowing of winter and spring crops and use of a catch crop in winter wheat was compared with a conventional system (CON) in a field experiment with six separately tile‐drained plots in south‐western Sweden during the period 1999–2011 (two crop rotation cycles). Total leaching of NO₃‐N from the NUE system was significantly 46 and 33% lower than in the CON system during the first and second crop rotation cycle, respectively, with the most pronounced differences apparently related to management strategies for winter wheat. Differences in NO₃‐N leaching largely reflected differences in SMN during autumn and winter. There was a tendency for lower yields in the NUE system, probably due to problems with couch grass. Overall, the measures for conserving N, when frequently used within a crop rotation, effectively reduced NO₃ concentrations in drainage water and NO₃‐N leaching losses, without severely affecting yield.     

温室内香蕉树蒸腾量预报的试验研究

在温室内研究了香蕉树蒸腾量和小气候的关系，用5种方法计算了温室内的参考作物腾发量，用20 cm蒸发皿测定温室内的水面蒸发力，并和测定的香蕉树蒸腾量进行对比。试验结果显示香蕉树蒸腾量和蒸发皿水面蒸发量的回归系数(R²)最高，为0.94，而和5种公式计算的参考作物腾发量的回归系数为0.47～0.60，以蒸发皿水面蒸发量计算温室内的作物蒸腾量要优于以参考作物腾发量计算作物蒸腾量的方法。温室内香蕉树的蒸腾量和20 cm蒸发皿蒸发量线性相关，可以此计算温室内作物的蒸腾量。     

阿克苏河灌区作物理论需水量的时空分布特征

[目的]研究阿克苏河灌区作物的理论需水量的时空变化特征,为该区水资源科学管理、高效利用提供理论依据。[方法]基于灌区内1972—2014年6个气象台站的逐日气象观测数据,采用FAO修正的Penman-Monteith模型,计算参考作物蒸发蒸腾量(ET0),进行空间数据的插值分析,对阿克苏河灌区作物的理论需水量特征分别在空间和时间两个维度上进行探讨。[结果](1)阿克苏河灌区多年平均ET0介于1 118~1 241mm之间,呈现中部以北地区较低,西南部、南部地区较高的规律;(2)春季和夏季的ET0最高,5,6,7月的月均ET0合计为533mm,是作物最需要水分补给的重要时段;(3)自20世纪70年代至今,作物年均蒸发蒸腾量呈现逐渐降低的趋势,2010年以后的变化趋势较为显著;(4)灌区各季节及全年的ET0变化均呈现S形曲线分布,至2014年已接近波谷并有抬升趋势。[结论]在气候变化背景下,阿克苏河灌区作物的理论需水量随时间变化显著,春夏季受蒸腾作用影响是需要补水的关键时期,年际变化呈波动抬升趋势;在空间上亦呈现明显地带分异特点,呈南高北低的特征。     

西南区域单季稻生长季干湿演变及影响因素分析

结合作物生产开展区域干湿演变及其影响因素研究,对农业可持续发展和粮食安全具有重要的科学意义。本文基于西南水稻种植区316个气象站点1961—2015年的观测资料,利用降水量与参考作物蒸散量(ET_0)的比值计算湿润指数,分析近55年西南区域单季稻生长季干湿演变特征;探讨ET_0对主要气候要素的敏感性及主要气候要素对ET_0的贡献率,对西南区域单季稻生长季干湿演变的影响因素展开研究。结果表明:西南区域单季稻生长季的半湿润区主要分布在四川攀西地区南部、云南中部和东北部,其余地区属湿润区。与1961—1990年相比,1991—2015年研究区域内的半湿润区面积增加、湿润区面积减小。近55年来,单季稻生长季内西南区域有40.8%的站点气候变湿,其余地区气候变干。四川盆地东北部、云南东北部由于降水量的增加和ET_0的减少,气候变湿;四川攀西地区由于降水量增加对湿润指数的正效应大于ET_0增加对湿润指数的负效应,气候变湿;重庆南部、贵州北部和西部由于降水量减少对湿润指数的负效应小于ET_0减少对湿润指数的正效应,气候变湿;云南大部由于降水量的减少和ET_0的增加,气候变干;西南其他区域由于降水量减少对湿润指数的负效应大于ET_0减少对湿润指数的正效应,气候变干。西南区域单季稻生长季ET_0随平均气温和相对湿度的增加而减小,而随日照时数和风速的增加而增加,日照时数和风速的显著下降是ET_0减小的主要原因。研究为气候变化背景下降低西南区域单季稻生长季可能的气候风险提供了科学依据。     

Estimation of daily reference evapotranspiration by neuro computing techniques using limited data in a semi-arid environment

In this paper, the daily reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) for Bulawayo Goetz was estimated from climatic data using neuro computing techniques. The region lacks reliable weather data and experiences inconsistencies in the measuring process due to inadequate and obsolete measuring equipment. This paper aims to propose neuro computing techniques as an alternative methodology to estimating evapotranspiration. Firstly, ET₀ was calculated using FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (PM) equation from available climatic data. Data was divided into training, testing and validation for neuro computing purposes. The study also investigated the effect of different normalisation techniques on neuro computing ET₀ estimation accuracy. In another application, neuro-computing ET₀ estimates were compared against those obtained using empirical methods and their calibrated versions. The Z-score normalisation technique for all data sets gave best results with a Multi-layer perceptron (5–5-1) model having RMSE, MAE and R² values in the range 0.12–0.25 mm day^?1, 0.08–0.15 mm day^?1 and 0.94–0.99 respectively. There were no significant differences in ET₀ estimation accuracy by neuro computing techniques due to normalisation technique. The Neuro computing techniques were superior to empirical methods in ET₀ estimation for Bulawayo Goetz. The Neuro computing techniques are recommended for use in cases of limited climatic data at Bulawayo Goetz.     

Forecasting daily reference evapotranspiration using the Blaney–Criddle model and temperature forecasts

Accurate daily reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) forecast is essential for real-time irrigation scheduling. An attempt was made to forecast ET_o using the Blaney–Criddle (BC) model and temperature forecasts in this study. Daily meteorological data for the period 2000–2014 at five stations in East China were collected to calibrate and validate the BC model against the FAO56 Penman–Monteith (FAO56-PM) model. Temperature forecasts up to 7 days’ lead time for 2012–2014 were input to the calibrated BC model to forecast ET_o. It is found that the performance of the BC model for ET_o forecast is further improved at all stations after monthly calibration. Average accuracy of forecasted ET_o (error within 1.5 mm d^?1) ranged from 82.7% to 89.3%, average values of mean absolute error (MAE) varied between 0.73 and 0.82 mm d^?1, average values of root mean square error (RMSE) ranged from 0.95 to 1.08 mm d^?1, and average values of the correlation coefficient (R) and concordance index (d) were more than 0.75 and 0.89, respectively. Furthermore, the error in ET_o forecast caused by error in temperature forecast is acceptable. The encouraging results indicate that the proposed method can be an alternative and effective solution for forecasting daily ET_o in East China.     

石羊河流域气候变化对参考作物蒸发蒸腾量的影响

根据甘肃省气象局石羊河流域的6个气象站近50年的观测资料，应用1998年FAO最新推荐的Penman-Monteith公式计算了50年各月参考作物蒸发蒸腾量ET₀，分析了ET₀的月际变化和年际变化特征，除武威与肃南站ET₀呈逐年显著减少趋势外，其他各站的ET₀值均表现为逐年增加趋势，各个站ET₀ 20世纪90年代较80年代均有明显增加，说明气候变化对ET₀的影响较大；并分析了平均气温、平均最高气温、年日照时数、平均风速、平均相对湿度、年降水量、年蒸发量、海拔高度与ET₀的相关性，各站ET₀与平均相对湿度相关性最好；石羊河流域ET₀空间变化也较大，从山区到绿洲平原ET₀多年平均值呈递增趋势。     

参考作物腾发量计算方法在新疆地区的适用性研究

新疆维吾尔族自治区地域辽阔，气候特征空间差异性显著。准确估算各地区的参考作物腾发量(ET₀)是新疆节水灌溉设计的基础。该文选用6种计算公式利用新疆4个典型气候区的气象资料计算了ET₀。并以Penman-Monteith方法作为标准，对其它方法进行评价。结果表明在新疆各气候区1948Penman法估算的ET₀值较FAO-24 Penman与FAO-24 Radiation方法更接近于P-M法的计算结果；在缺少资料的地区，Hargreaves方法或湿润区用Priestley-Taylor方法均可以得到与P-M法估值相当的结果；同时分析了P-M法计算的ET₀值和水面蒸发量之间的关系，为利用水面蒸发资料估算新疆地区ET₀值提供参考。     

网室内作物蒸散量的变化和影响要素研究

在香蕉种植网室内,研究了网室内外作物蒸散量和参考作物蒸散量的关系,以及网室内小气候变化对参考作物蒸散量的影响.研究结果显示,网室内参考作物蒸散量(ET0)和A级蒸发皿水面蒸发量分别比大田减少39%和42%,网室内香蕉树蒸腾量较网室外下降53%.网室内净辐射降低和风速减小是网室内香蕉树蒸腾量和参考作物蒸散量降低的主要原因,而网室内温度和饱和水汽压差变化对蒸散量的影响较小.建立了网室内参考作物蒸散量和网室内外水面蒸发量的关系,计算出该地区的A级蒸发皿系数为0.84.