降雨聚集条件下蓄水工程优化设计研究

降雨聚集条件下，根据水量平衡原理，利用调蓄计算方法，在集水量和用水量一定的基础上，进行蓄水工程的优化设计，确定出蓄水设施的有效容积及其复蓄次数，单位设施容积及数量的优化组合方案。     

基于离散二阶差分算法的中国碳排放预测

在系统研究国内外目前碳排放预测文献的基础上,总结其中的预测方法,发现方法中的局限性。离散二阶差分方程预测模型是基于时间序列的预测方法,能够有效弥补目前预测方法的局限性。在论述离散二阶差分方程预测模型(DDEPM)推导过程的基础上,应用DDEPM方法,借助Matlab软件,基于1980-2009年的碳排放数据,计算中国2020年碳排放的碳排放量,并估算1984-2009年碳排放预测值的误差率;随后基于1980-2009年的中国GDP数据,应用相同的方法,对2020年中国GDP的数值进行计算。通过单位GDP碳排放的运算,计算出中国降低单位GDP碳排放的潜力。     

兰州北山人工侧柏林地土壤渗透性研究

侧柏(Platycladus orientalis)人工林是兰州南北两山的主要人工林类型,具有良好的水土保持和水源涵养功能。本文对北山不同灌溉方式、不同栽植年限人工侧柏林地和荒坡地土壤渗透特征进行了研究。结果表明:不同灌溉方式林地的土壤渗透性能存在显著差异,土壤入渗过程符合对数曲线;林地土壤渗透性能随着栽植年限延长呈增大趋势,其土壤入渗过程符合Horton方程,相关系数达到显著水平。与荒坡地相比,人工侧柏林地的入渗速率显著高于荒坡地。     

新疆奎屯河流域枯季径流频率分布选型与计算

枯水径流频率计算对于水资源评价、环境水利及工程水文分析有重要的现实意义。文中依据奎屯河流域三条主要河流1959-2006年48年径流序列资料,采用PPCC检验法对我国常用的5种水文频率分布线型进行检验,以选择适合奎屯河流域的最优线型。结果表明:奎屯河流域内三条最大的河流的代表性水文站最小月枯水序列和各时段枯水序列的枯水径流频率分布都是以P-Ⅲ型曲线最优,但流域内其它个别水文站也有以其它线型最优。最后对三条主要河流最小月和最小3个月枯水径流频率采用P-Ⅲ型曲线进行了计算,得出不同保证率的枯水径流。     

自然条件下拟环紋豹蛛对三化螟成虫捕食作用的评价

实验室条件下研究了不同空间容积大小和捕食者个体间的干扰作用对功能反应的影响,建立了参数方程和模拟模型。在此基础上,结合血清方法,提出了自然条件估算捕食者对猎物捕食数量的一种方法。该方法可用于评价自然条件下天敌对害虫的控制作用。     

设施用药新技术--粉尘法与烟雾法

冬春季节,保护设施生产中防治病虫害常用喷雾的方法,但该法用工多,劳动强度大,成本高,会增加设施内湿度,有利于病虫害发生蔓延.粉尘法、烟雾法施药等新技术的出现,可以在封闭的设施内代替喷雾法,不但省工、省力、省时、省水,而且能降低设施内湿度,效果好,值得大力推广.现将粉尘法和烟雾法的施药技术与方法介绍如下:     

EPIC模型中农田水分运移与利用的数学模拟

土壤侵蚀和生产力影响估算模型EPIC是目前国际上较有影响的水土资源管理评价动力学模型。介绍了EPIC模型中描述农田降水、径流、渗透、蒸散、吸收和胁迫等水分运移和利用过程的主要数学方程,可供农田水分动态管理与定量评价研究借鉴。     

武威市相对湿度气候特征及预报

利用武威市1960-2009年5个气象站平均相对湿度资料,系统分析该区域相对湿度的时空分布特征及变化趋势。结果表明：相对湿度北部小,南部大。各地年、年代相对湿度总体呈减少趋势,相对湿度的时间序列存在着 6～8 a的周期变化;相对湿度夏季最大,其次为秋季,春季最小,冬季相对湿度总体上呈增加趋势,其他季节为减小趋势;相对湿度8月、9月达到最大,依次向两端减小,4月最小;一天之内,早晚的相对湿度较大,中午前后的相对湿度较小,相对湿度的日变化与气温的日变化呈反相关。同时,运用2003-2007年逐日20时ECMWF数值预报格点场资料,采用Press准则进行预报因子初选,逐步回归预报方法进行预报因子精选,使用最优子集回归建立相对湿度预报方程,采用CSC双评分准则确定各站逐月平均相对湿度全局最优的显著性预报方程,预报方程通过了α=0.01信度检验。预报方程回代拟合率为70%～77%,预报准确率为65%～72%,达到了一定的预报水平,可为相对湿度的业务预报提供客观有效的指导产品。
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甘肃中东部半干旱区参考作物蒸散量多种计算方法的比较研究

为明确甘肃中东部丘陵沟壑地区参考作物蒸散量(ET0)在气象资料短缺条件下的计算方法,依据6个气象站的长系列资料,以FAO Penman-Monteith方法为标准,对7种ET0计算方法进行评价。结果表明:Hargreaves与FAO Penman-Monteith吻合最好,其次为Jensen-Haise,各地区年均标准偏差(RMBE)分别为120.0 mm、446.1 mm。Pennman、FAO-17 Penman、FAO-24 Radiation、Preiestley-Taylor计算结果偏高,各地区年均RMBE在3 122.1～1 383.4mm间,以FAO-24 Radiation差异最大。8种方程计算的年内月均ET0趋势基本呈单峰曲线,峰值出现在7月份。Hargreaves、Jensen-Haise两种方程3-9月差异大于1-2月和10-12月份; Penman、FAO-17 Penman、FAO-24Radiation、Preiestley-Taylor、Makkink 5种方程7月份差异最大,地区间表现不一。不同的方程与FAO PenmanMonteith方程均存在显著的线性相关关系(0. 994**≤R≤0.8743**),回归系数t检测均达到显著水平,以FAO Penman-Monteith方程为基础对各方程进行矫正是可行的。     

榆林地区土地沙漠化过程中人文作用的定量分析

本文通过对榆林风沙区沙漠化成因的分析,建立了一个沙漠化过程的数学模型:Y=At·f(P,W),利用数学变换,得出人为作用的变化速度方程:a=y-αp-βw,并且提出了降水,风速弹性的概念和计算方法。通过计算,榆林地区土地沙漠化过程中人为因素的作用为112.3%。沙漠化过程的数学模型的建立和人为作用的定量分离,为预测沙漠化发展,控制人为作用强度,制定沙漠化治理措施,提供了理论依据。     

基于两阶段随机规划方法的绿洲水资源优化配置

选取塔里木盆地南缘和田地区策勒绿洲作为典型研究区,以当前绿洲种植的核桃、红枣及石榴经济林种为重点研究对象,针对绿洲水资源灌溉系统中的不确定性和复杂性,引入概率密度函数和离散区间方法,构建区间两阶段模糊随机规划模型,对各经济林种在各灌季的配水目标进行优化,模拟分析不同林种在不同灌季的最优配置水量。结果表明:灌溉主要集中在夏季与秋季;在策勒河来水量不确定时,春季依然需要少部分水量进行灌溉,应优先灌溉红枣和石榴;夏秋时,主要对红枣与核桃灌溉,同时对石榴的灌溉面积进行动态调节,获得种植业最大收益,系统收益区间为[0.67×10~8,1.32×10~8]元。通过典型案例运用分析,显示该模型不仅充分考虑到不确定性因素对系统收益的影响,风险进行权衡并以区间形式给出优化结果从而获得较为科学的决策方案。     

膜孔肥液单向交汇入渗特性及数学模型研究

通过室内入渗试验,分析了膜孔肥液单向交汇的入渗特性。在此基础上,根据已知试验资料,提出了Kostiakov模型、分段函数模型、减渗量模型和增渗率模型等4个膜孔肥液单向交汇入渗模型。Kostiakov模型建立的条件是膜孔肥液单向交汇入渗参数均为已知;分段函数模型建立的条件是膜孔肥液自由入渗和单向交汇入渗参数均为已知;减渗量模型建立的条件是膜孔肥液单向交汇入渗相对于膜孔肥液自由入渗的减渗量参数和膜孔肥液自由入渗参数已知;增渗率模型建立的条件是膜孔肥液单向交汇入渗相对膜孔清水单向交汇入渗增渗率和清水单向交汇入渗参数已知。模型验证表明,所提出的4个模型均为描述膜孔肥液单向交汇入渗的有效模型,其中分段函数模型的计算精度相对最高,Kostiakov模型、减渗量模型和增渗率模型稍次之。在实际应用中,可根据不同的已知资料情况加以选用。     

提高中子浅层测湿精度率定方法的比较研究

为了提高中子仪浅层测湿精度率定方程的建立，以烘干法为比较基准，进行了大田标定及验证试验。结果表明，分层分段法在整个浅层率定过程中表现最优；由深层率定方程推求浅层土壤含水率的间接推导法不能改善整个浅层土壤中子测湿精度；由非线性最小二乘法拟合双曲线方程作为整个土壤浅层率定模型的实际应用效果不稳定，试验误差较大。     

SubTOPMODEL模块构建及其在清水河的应用

在TOPMODEL模型原理及其特点的基础上,结合塔里木河流域的雪冰水文特点,构建subTOPMODEL子模块,并与TOPMODEL模型松散耦合,以完善TOPMODEL模型.并把模型应用于垂直地带性明显,雪冰融水为重要补给的清水河流域,对原模型、改进模型、实测值的两两比较表明,模拟结果走型匹配较好,但由于在高强度降雨情况下,超渗地面径流对洪峰贡献很大,而TOPMODEL模型基于变源产流面积理论,没有充分考虑超渗地面径流,计算主洪峰流量明显小于实测流量;改进模型的模拟效率系数为0.738,效率系数结果提高度不是令人满意,仅提高了0.051,但其春冬季节细微表现证实改进模型的有效性.     

The Basis of Predictive Modelling for Estimating Yield Loss and Planning Potato Cyst Nematode Management

The basis of modelling yield loss and population dynamics relations of potato cyst nematodes is that both are strongly density-dependent. Potato cyst nematodes (PCN; Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis) are particularly suitable for analysing such relationships because they have only one generation per year, potato is their only field host, the juvenile nematodes within the egg are very durable (up to 20 years persistence), and they hatch mainly in response to specific chemicals exuded from host roots. Small populations increase the most, up to 50-fold, when a potato crop is grown. Multiplication rates decrease as the population density increases because damage decreases root system size and increases competition so that very large populations may actually be decreased when potatoes are grown. The newly formed eggs have a ‘half-life’ of c.two years when non-host, rotational crops are being grown. Control is achieved largely by the use of rotation, the application of nematicidal chemicals, and growing resistant cultivars. As rotations are shortened, so PCN populations will be increased, and crop damage becomes more likely. Thresholds for damage vary with both soil type (greatest on sandy soils) and potato cultivar. Cultivars differ in their tolerance of PCN damage depending on how vigorously they grow, on their root sensitivity to damage from the PCN juveniles which invade close to root tips, on cultivar resistance which decreases the parasitic effect by reducing the numbers of developing PCN females, and on various environmental factors such as the amounts of fertiliser applied. The dependence of the yield-loss relationship on population density, soil type and cultivar effects has been described in a simple equation and assessed using field-trial data. Effects on yield are described in proportion to the PCN-free yield but the addition of information on expected yield (in tonnes ha⁻¹) in the absence of PCN renders this equation predictive. Nematicides are widely applied to infestations of potato cyst nematodes, both to prevent the crop from being damaged and to prevent population increase which could hazard the next potato crop in the rotation, but they are generally more effective at preventing the former than the latter. A complex equation has also been developed to model the population dynamics of PCN. This equation incorporates a factor for host-crop growth and tolerance (from the yield-loss equation) and also the effects of host resistance. This latter is particularly relevant to G. pallida, where all the resistance currently available is determined by minor genes and hence is ‘quantitative’ or ‘partial’. Effects of rotation and of nematicides can also be incorporated into this model. To provide a realistic prediction also requires accurate information on PCN population densities, species composition and distributions, and rates of PCN population decline between potato crops.     

不同培肥方式对伊犁新垦区淡灰钙土的熟化效果

针对伊犁新垦区淡灰钙土土壤肥力不高的特点,设计了4种土壤熟化处理措施（无施肥,CK;施氮磷钾肥,NPK;施氮磷钾+糠醛渣,NPKK;施氮磷钾+秸秆还田,NPKJ）,进行3 a定点试验。应用模糊数学（Fuzzy）综合评判法,计算不同熟化处理下土壤的综合肥力指数（IFI）。在不同熟化方式下,对比分析单项土壤肥力指标与综合肥力指数以及作物产量。结果表明：增施有机物对土壤养分含量均有提高,同时还可以有效降低土壤pH和土壤容重,其中以增施糠醛渣效果最明显;综合肥力评价表明,施氮磷钾+糠醛渣的土壤肥力综合指数最高,达0.826,施氮磷钾+秸秆还田高于单施氮磷钾肥或不施肥;增施有机物是提高土壤综合肥力的有效方法,但有机物中养分的释放存在一定延后性。     

Field validation of the factors related to clodinafop efficacy on Avena species

Previous research has shown that historical data and interpolated weather information can be used to correlate environmental and other variables with herbicide efficacy. This article examines this possibility using field experiments and on-site weather data. Clodinafop was applied to Avena spp. (wild oat) infestations on 46 occasions, in eight separate experiments, during 2003–2004 across the grain growing regions of New South Wales, Australia. Linear mixed models and covariate analyses were used to determine correlations of agronomic and environmental variables with clodinafop efficacy on Avena spp., as measured by plant mortality, panicle density and seed production. Clodinafop dose, maximum temperature on the day of spraying, spray water volume, the spray water volume by maximum temperature interaction and available soil moisture at spraying were correlated with mortality. Minimum temperatures prior to spraying, previously reported to be correlated with clodinafop efficacy, were not a significant factor in this study. On-site weather data were highly correlated with interpolated, generic weather data and thus there was little impact on which of these meteorological data sets were used to determine the correlations. This suggests that accessible, generic weather data could be used to develop and implement a predictive model for clodinafop efficacy. The relationship between the variables and Avena spp. mortality were generally supported when applied to panicle density and estimated seed production, with some exceptions. The results indicate that it should be possible to incorporate industry and field data to develop a robust predictive model for Avena spp. control with clodinafop.     

A molecular assay for the proactive detection of target site-based resistance to herbicides inhibiting acetolactate synthase in Alopecurus myosuroides

Acetolactate synthase (ALS) inhibitors are the most resistance‐prone herbicide group. Rapid resistance diagnosis is thus of importance for their optimal use. We formulate rules to use the derived cleaved amplified polymorphic sequence method to develop molecular tools detecting a change at a given codon, the nature of which is unknown. We applied them to Alopecurus myosuroides (black grass) to develop assays targeting ALS codons A122, P197, A205, W574 and S653 that are crucial for herbicide sensitivity. These assays detected W574L or P197T, or both substitutions, in most plants analysed from a field where ALS inhibitors failed after 3 years of use. Similar assays can easily be set up for any species. Given the rapidity of selection for resistance to ALS inhibitors, these assays should be very useful in proactive herbicide resistance diagnosis.     

新疆盐渍化区土壤养分的空间结构和分布特征

结合地理信息系统(GIS),在面积约为2000km2的新疆典型盐渍化区渭干河流域布设了土壤取样点43个,测定了土壤表层(0~30cm)养分(全氮、全磷、全钾、碱解氮、速效磷、速效钾)的空间变异规律。结果表明:七种养分元素中除了碱解氮、速效磷的含量服从对数正态分布,其它养分元素均符合正态分布;半方差分析得出各项目都能很好的用模型来拟合,全氮、全磷、速效钾符合指数模型,碱解氮、速效磷、全磷符合球状模型。只有有机质是符合高斯模型;全氮和碱解氮的系统空间相关性很弱,而其余养分元素均表现出中等强度的空间相关性,变程在14.3km~67.0km之间,相差比较大;用Kriging插值法对未测点的养分元素进行最优估计,绘制含量分布图,从而可以更直观的反映研究区土壤养分的空间结构和分布特征。     

Glasshouse trials with controlled drop application of some foliage-applied herbicides

MCPA, mecoprop, dichlorprop, dicamba, 2,3,6-TBA, bentazone, ioxynil/bromoxynil (a mixture), barban, difenzoquat and chlorfenprop-methyl were applied by spinning disc in controlled drop sizes from 150-350μm and at very low volume rates (5–45 1/ha), to the foliage of some dicotyledonous weed species or wild oats (Avena fatua L.). The same herbicides were also applied by means of conventional hydraulic nozzles at volume rates of about 200 1/ha. Most of these herbicides performed as well at very low volume rates as with the conventional application, the major exceptions being bentazone, ioxynil/bromoxynil (both of which have distinct contact effects) and dichlorprop. Comparisons between oil and water as the diluent at a very low volume rates suggest that there may be situations when oil is preferable and others when water is.