Managing Climate Change Risk in China’s Agricultural Sector：The Potential for an Integrated Risk Management Framework

Climate change poses a serious threat to the future food security of China, which is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. This paper discusses the implications of climate change for China＇s agricultural sector. Its main objectives are to identify the agricultural risks associated with climate change, to introduce a conceptual framework for agricultural climate risk management and to enumerate key adaptation strategies, challenges, and recommendations.     

Climate Change, Risk and Grain Yields in China

Adopting Just and Pope (1978, 1979) style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect grain production in North and South China differently. Specifically, it emerges that a 1℃ increase in annual average temperature could reduce national grain output by 1.45% (1.74% reduction in North China and 1.19% reduction in South China), while an increase in total annual precipitation of around 100 mm could increase national grain output by 1.31% (3.0% increase in North China and 0.59% reduction in South China).     

气候变化与对荆州市粮食安全影响的思考

运用二次多项式回归方法,模拟分析出荆州市近54年来逐年平均气温呈整体上升趋势.气候变暖;揭示了荆州市在全球气候变暖的大背景下,近年极端天气气候事件频发,阶段性的低温冷害也时有发生的区域气候变化事实;提出了应时气候变化,保障荆州粮食安全的必要措施.     

气候变化对天水主要粮食作物农业生产的影响及对策建议

着重从主要气候因子变化和极端天气事件出现的频率和强度变化,分析研究其对天水主要粮食作物产量的影响,并对此提出了相应的对策措施。     

国有农场的农业风险管理

在系统总结农业风险管理理论的基础上，根据在国营农场的调查和我国发展市场经济农业风险存在的客观性，认为国有农场具有规模大、技术力量雄厚、机械化程度高、职工素质好等优势，将农业风险管理纳入国有农场管理体制和条件已经成熟。将风险管理理论与国有农场实际相结合，阐述了国有农场农业风险管理存在的问题和加强农业风险管理的必要性，提出国有农场在我国经济转轨时期防范农业风险的管理措施。     

气候变化对嘉荫县农业生产可持续发展的影响

分析全球气候变化对黑龙江省嘉荫县农业生产的影响,从气象角度提出嘉荫县农业生气调整角度,确保嘉荫农业生产的可持续发展。     

Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China

The overall goal of this paper is to examine impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance and their consequences on agricultural production in ten river basins in China. To realize this goal, China Water Simulation Model (CWSM) is used to analyze three alternative climate scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2). The results show that the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance differ largely among alternative scenarios. While significant impacts of climate change on water balance will occur under the A1B scenario, the impacts of climate change under the A2 and B2 scenarios will be marginal. Under the A1B scenario, the water shortage in the river basins located in the northern China will become more serious, particularly in Liaohe and Haihe river basins, but the other river basins in the southern China will improve their water balance situations. Despite larger impacts of climate change on water balance in the northern China, its impacts on total crops’ production will be moderate if farmers would be able to reallocate water among crops and adjust irrigated and rainfed land. The paper concludes with some policy implications.     

全球气候变化与农业有害生物控制科学问题刍议

全球气候变化对人类生产生活的影响日益显现,农业有害生物控制亦面临全球气候变化带来的挑战。本文概述了全球气候变暖的现状及其"日因说"、"自律说"、"碳因说"、"牛因说"等观点。同时讨论了气候变化对农业有害生物的趋利和不利影响,认为在全球气候变化背景下,从长时间尺度的战略角度,应重视探索有害生物的群落结构响应、适应机制、扩散机制、致灾预测等基础性科学课题,从短时间尺度上生产实际需要的角度,则应针对具体农业环境、作物对象、有害物种研究防控策略和技术,因时因势而进,因时因势而变。     

Climate Change Impact and Its Contribution Share to Paddy Rice Production in Jiangxi,China

In the study, an improved approach was proposed to identify the contribution shares of three group factors that are climate, technology and input, social economic factors by which the grain production is shaped. In order to calibrate the method, Jiangxi Province, one of the main paddy rice producers in China was taken as an example. Based on 50 years （1961-2010） meteorological and statistic data, using GIS and statistical analysis tools, the three group factors that in certain extent impact China＇s paddy rice production have been analyzed quantitatively. The individual and interactive contribution shares of each factor group have been identiifed via eta square （η2）. In the paper, two group ordinary leasr square （OLS） models, paddy models and climate models, have been constructed for further analysis. Each model group consists of seven models, one full model and six partial models. The results of paddy models show that climate factors individually and interactively contribute 11.42-15.25%explanatory power to the variation of paddy rice production in the studied province. Technology and input factors contribute 16.17%individually and another 8.46%interactively together with climate factors, totally contributing about 25%. Social economic factors contribute about 7%of which 4.65%is individual contribution and 2.49%is interactive contribution together with climate factors. The three factor groups individually contribute about 23%and interactively contribute additional 41%to paddy rice production. In addition every two of the three factor groups also function interactively and contribute about 22%. Among the three factor groups, technology and input are the most important factors to paddy rice production. The results of climate models support the results of paddy models, and display that solar radiation （indicated by sunshine hour variable） is the dominate climate factor for paddy rice production.     

Feeding More People on an Increasingly Fragile Planet: China's Food and Nutrition Security in a National and Global Context

Developing and developed countries alike are increasingly facing the difficult question of how to feed more people amidst a host of emerging demographic, environmental, and health challenges. At the same time, in addition to food quantity, increased attention is being given to food quality attributes, in particular nutrition and safety. This is especially evident in China, where concerns are on the rise regarding the ability of China's food production systems to deliver nutritious and safe food to a growing, urbanizing and more affluent population. These food and nutrition concerns come at a time when China is an increasingly influential actor within the global food security network through activities such as production, consumption and trade. We argue that China has the opportunity to increase food and nutrition security both nationally and globally through a comprehensive policy agenda that focuses on institutional reforms, investments for and in agriculture, productive social safety nets, mutually beneficial trade, and the exchange of know-how and technologies among developing countries and donors. This agenda will help China adapt its food production systems to the changing face of agriculture and to play a vital role in addressing the emerging challenges facing food and nutrition security within and beyond China in the coming decades.     

气候变化对灰飞虱分布的影响及风险分析

利用最大熵生态位模型Max Ent和Arc GIS软件分析并预测灰飞虱在我国的风险区变化,揭示气候变化对该虫害带来的影响。结果表明,在当前气候条件下,灰飞虱在我国的极高风险区为上海、江苏、天津、山东大部、安徽东部、四川东部等地,高风险区为湖北、湖南、江西、浙江、广西、贵州、重庆和河南等地。2020时段(2011—2020年),在温室气体A1b(能源需求平衡)排放情景下,灰飞虱在我国的极高风险区总面积略有增加,高风险区面积显著减少;A2a(能源需求较高)排放情景下高风险区面积显著减少,主要分布在长江流域以南地区。2050时段(2041—2050年),A1b、A2a、B2a(能源需求较低)3种排放情景下,灰飞虱在我国的极高风险区面积均有所增加,但增幅均不明显;而高风险区面积均有所减少。因此,气候变化对灰飞虱在我国的分布有较大影响。     

山东省农产品加工企业风险管理

以山东省为例,分析总结山东省农产品加工企业面临的风险,并就如何进行风险管理作了一些初步的探讨.     

信息化环境下的长株潭农产品供应链管理运作风险研究

在对长株潭农产品市场信息化调研的基础上,阐述了地区农产品供应链管理存在的风险主要体现在政府推进风险、各主体组织协调风险以及食品安全风险,并据此提出了政府管制、管理、服务角色的定位,主体利益分配机制的建设以及食品安全体系可追溯机制的建立等防范策略,为长株潭及相近地区农产品供应链管理提供参考.     

农业科研单位人力资源管理中人才流失的成因与风险管理

从农业科研单位人力资源流失的现状入手,对人才流失的特征和原因进行分析和研究,提出农业科研单位人才流失的风险识别,有针对性的从管理制度、团队文化、岗位设置、人才信息管理和人才梯队建设等5个方面提出应对农业科研单位人才流失风险的管理对策。     

天津市农产品质量安全管理保障体系建设研究

从揭示农产品安全生产及安全农产品内涵出发,在分析天津市农产品质量安全监管问题的基础上,提出天津市农产品质量安全管理保障体系建设对策。     

美国、日本农业风险管理体系建设经验及其对我国的启示

[目的/意义]面对农业巨灾风险趋于加剧、农业常规风险日益凸显、非常规风险不断涌现,农业风险环境更加复杂的现实情况,深入研究农业风险管理政策,为建立有效的农业风险管理体系提出具有参考性的建议.[方法/过程]基于美国、日本农业风险管理政策经验,在分析我国农业风险管理实践基础上探讨其存在的问题.[结果/结论]我国农业风险管理...     

The Effects of Climate Change on the Planting Boundary and Potential Yield for Different Rice Cropping Systems in Southern China

Based on climate data from 254 meteorological stations, this study estimated the effects of climate change on rice planting boundaries and potential yields in the southern China during 1951-2010. The results indicated a signiifcant northward shift and westward expansion of northern boundaries for rice planting in the southern China. Compared with the period of 1951-1980, the average temperature during rice growing season in the period of 1981-2010 increased by 0.4＆#176;C, and the northern planting boundaries for single rice cropping system （SRCS）, early triple cropping rice system （ETCRS）, medium triple cropping rice system （MTCRS）, and late triple cropping rice system （LTCRS） moved northward by 10, 30, 52 and 66 km, respectively. In addition, compared with the period of 1951-1980, the suitable planting area for SRCS was reduced by 11%during the period of 1981-2010. However, the suitable planting areas for other rice cropping systems increased, with the increasing amplitude of 3, 8, and 10%for ETCRS, MTCRS and LTCRS, respectively. In general, the light and temperature potential productivity of rice decreased by 2.5%. Without considering the change of rice cultivars, the northern planting boundaries for different rice cropping systems showed a northward shift tendency. Climate change resulted in decrease of per unit area yield for SRCS and the annual average yields of ETCRS and LTCRS. Nevertheless, the overall rice production in the entire research area showed a decreasing trend even with the increasing trend of annual average yield for MTCRS.     

气候变化对西辽河流域农业生态系统生产力的影响

分析1995—2004年西辽河流域气候的变化特征,采用曲线对比分析法,研究各气候因子变化(气温升高、降水量减少)对该地区的农业总产值及农、林、牧、渔业各产值的影响。结果表明:气温升高、降水量减少使该地区各产业产值升高,提出提高该地区农业生态系统生产力的对策,以促进区域农业生产。     

基于农业现代化与粮食安全的黑龙江垦区持续发展建议

黑龙江垦区在引领农业现代化发展和保障国家粮食安全方面具有举足轻重的作用。分析了黑龙江垦区当前发展中存在的瓶颈问题,包括社会地位尴尬;社会职能过多,社会定位不明晰;农业生态超负荷,可持续发展受到挑战;农业经营体制创新依然跟不上生产力提高的的步伐。提出黑龙江垦区持续发展的若干建议,自身发展建议:创新与完善农垦新型农业经营体制,加大对粮食主产区农田水利建设项目投入;对农业部等相关部委的建议:积极促进保障粮食安全政策的落实、继续强化国有农场办社会职能及大力落实垦区行使社会职能的执法权。