Downy mildew outbreaks on grapevine under climate change: elaboration and application of an empirical‐statistical model*

The global climate is changing. Much research has already been carried out to assess the potential impacts of climate change on plant physiology. However, effects on plant disease have not yet been deeply studied. In this paper, an empirical disease model for primary infection of downy mildew on grapevine was elaborated and used to project future disease dynamics under climate change. The disease model was run under the outputs of the General Circulation Model (GCM) and future scenarios of downy mildew primary outbreaks were generated at several sites all over the word for three future dates: 2030, 2050, 2080. Results suggested a potential general advance of first disease outbreaks, both in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, for all three future decades considered. The advance is predicted to be from about a minimum of one day in South Africa in 2030 to a maximum of 28 days in Chile and China in 2080. The advance in the outbreak time could lead to more severe infections, due to the polycyclic nature of the pathogen. Therefore, changes in the timing and frequency of fungicide treatments could be expected in the future, with a possible increase in the costs of disease management.     

气候变化条件下樱桃绕实蝇在中国的潜在地理分布预测

樱桃绕实蝇Rhagoletis cerasi(L.)被我国列为进境检疫性有害生物,目前在我国尚无分布报道。为明确该虫在我国的适生区及适生程度,利用CLIMEX地点比较模型预测在当前以及未来2030、2080年A1B与A2两种不同排放情景下樱桃绕实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布。结果显示,樱桃绕实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布包括长江以北的大部分地区,随着气候变化,到2030年与2080年,樱桃绕实蝇的低度适生区、中度适生区面积均增加,高度适生区面积减少,其中在2030年A1B排放情景下樱桃绕实蝇的总适生区面积增加了48.4万km~2,在2030年的A2情景下与2080年的A1B与A2情景下总适生区面积分别减少了3.4、5.7、5.7万km~2。因此,为保护我国樱桃种植业的安全生产,应加强对该虫的检疫力度,防止其传入我国。     

Mapping the current and future distributions of Onosma species endemic to Iran

Climate change may cause shifts in the natural range of species especially for those that are geographically restricted and/or endemic species. In this study, the spatial distribution of five endemic and threatened species belonging to the genus Onosma (including O. asperrima, O. bisotunensis, O. kotschyi, O. platyphylla, and O. straussii) was investigated under present and future climate change scenarios: RCP2.6 (RCP, representative concentration pathway; optimistic scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario) for the years 2050 and 2080 in Iran. Analysis was conducted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to provide a basis for the protection and conservation of these species. Seven environmental variables including aspect, depth of soil, silt content, slope, annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and annual temperature range were used as main predictors in this study. The model output for the potential habitat suitability of the studied species showed acceptable performance for all species (i.e., the area under the curve (AUC)>0.800). According to the models generated by MaxEnt, the potential current patterns of the species were consistent with the observed areas of distributions. The projected climate maps under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively) of 2050 and 2080 resulted in reductions and expansions as well as positive range changes for all species in comparison to their current predicted distributions. Among all species, O. bisotunensis showed the most significant and highest increase under the pessimistic scenario of 2050 and 2080. Finally, the results of this study revealed that the studied plant species have shown an acute adaptability to environmental changes. The results can provide useful information to managers to apply appropriate strategies for the management and conservation of these valuable Iranian medicinal and threatened plant species in the future.     

Estimation of spatial and temporal changes in net primary production based on Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model in semi-arid rangelands of SemiromCounty,Iran

Net primary production (NPP) is an indicator of rangeland ecosystem function. This research assessed the potential of the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model for estimating NPP and its spatial and temporal changes in semi-arid rangelands of Semirom County, Iran. Using CASA model, we estimated the NPP values based on monthly climate data and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) obtained from the MODIS sensor. Regression analysis was then applied to compare the estimated production data with observed production data. The spatial and temporal changes in NPP and light utilization efficiency (LUE) were investigated in different rangeland vegetation types. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was also calculated at different time scales and the correlation of SPI with NPP changes was determined. The results indicated that the estimated NPP values varied from 0.00 to 74.48 g C/(m²?a). The observed and estimated NPP values had different correlations, depending on rangeland conditions and vegetation types. The highest and lowest correlations were respectively observed in Astragalus spp.-Agropyronspp. rangeland (R²=0.75) with good condition and Gundeliaspp.-Cousiniaspp. rangeland (R²=0.36) with poor and very poor conditions. The maximum and minimum LUE values were found in Astragalus spp.-Agropyronspp. rangeland (0.117 g C/MJ) with good condition and annual grasses-annual forbs rangeland (0.010 g C/MJ), respectively. According to the correlations between SPI and NPP changes, the effects of drought periods on NPP depended on vegetation types and rangeland conditions. Annual plants had the highest drought sensitivity while shrubs exhibited the lowest drought sensitivity. The positive effects of wet periods on NPP were less evident in degraded areas where the destructive effects of drought were more prominent. Therefore, determining vegetation types and rangeland conditions is essential in NPP estimation. The findings of this study confirmed the potential of the CASA for estimating rangeland production. Therefore, the model output maps can be used to evaluate, monitor and optimize rangeland management in semi-arid rangelands of Iran where MODIS NPP products are not available.     

Potential habitat modeling for reintroduction of three native plant species in central Iran

Potential habitat modeling of endemic species is an appropriate method to maintain biodiversity,ecosystem function and rehabilitation of rangeland ecosystems.Astragalus caragana,A.cyclophyllon and A.podolobus are endemic in Iran's rangelands and some neighboring countries.The three native species could endure environmental stresses due to their distinctive ecophysiological characteristics.They play important roles in sustainable pastures production,recreation and improvement.They suffer severe threat from many factors including;grazing,agriculture and invasive exotic species.We analyzed the potential habitat of three native plant species in central Iran basing on the grid map with the resolution of 1-km.We used inventory records from field surveys,herbarium collections and 22 environmental factors to explore the environmental influences on given species distribution by Maximum entropy(Maxent) model.Maxent is a species distribution model that uses species occurrence and environmental data for predicting potential species.The results of our study indicated species occurrence has strong correlation with environmental factors such as mean temperature of wettest season,elevation and precipitation of coldest season.We evaluated the model accuracy by AUC(area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) based on an independent test data set.AUC values indicated the high power of Maxent to create potential habitat map(AUCA.caragana=0.988,AUCA.cyclophyllon=0.927,AUCA.podolobus=0.923).It is important to consider that AUC values tend to be lower for species that have broad distribution scope,such as A.podolobus distribution.Most suitable potential habitat distributions of the three species were predicted in the western and southwestern parts of rangelands in Isfahan province.Visual comparisons of the actual distribution map of the three species with produced Maxent maps represent a good agreement.In general,the model demonstrated that the occurrence of the given species is highly probable when the elevation is between 2,200 and 3,000 m and mean temperature of wettest season less than 3°C.This model,therefore,can be applied to recognize potential sites for rangeland reclamation projects.     

Impacts of livestock grazing on a savanna grassland in Kenya

The dynamics of most rangelands in Kenya remain to be poorly understood.This paper provides baseline information on the response of a semiarid rangeland under different livestock grazing regimes on land inhabited by the Massai people in the east side of Amboseli National Park in Kenya.The data were collected from grasslands designated into four types:(1) grassland from previous Massai settlements that had been abandoned for over twenty years;(2) grassland excluded from livestock grazing for eight years;(3) a dry season grazing area;and (4) a continuous grazing area where grazing occurred throughout all seasons.Collected data included grass species composition,grass height,inter-tuft distance,standing grass biomass and soil characteristics.The results indicated that continuous grazing area in semiarid rangelands exhibited loss of vegetation with negative,long-term effects on grass functional qualities and forage production,whereas grassland that used traditional Maasai grazing methods showed efficiency and desirable effects on the rangelands.The results also showed that abandoned homestead sites,though degraded,were important nutrient reservoirs.     

Rangeland Monitoring and Fire: Wildfires and Prescribed Burning,Nutrient Cycling,and Plant Succession

Prescribed fires are used to manipulate and manage rangelands, but effective monitoring techniques are needed to ensure that management goals and objectives are being met. The application of an effective fire program on rangelands is not a simple task. Overgrazing by livestock since the early development of the livestock industry has altered the vegetative complex on most rangelands with an increase in woody plants. Because of its relatively low cost, prescribed fire, both cool and warm season, are sustainable practices if proper grazing management is part of the management scheme. Grazing management and prescribed fire have often been treated as separate issues by rangeland managers; however, development and application of an effective prescribed burning program requires an understanding of the relationship between fire and grazing. Ranchers need fuel (grass) to burn and they also need income from livestock, which requires forage (grass, a major part of forage). In the short-term, fire reduces carrying capacity for livestock but, in the long-term, fire increases grass production, resulting in increased carrying capacity. Therefore, some monitoring technique is needed that will allow the manager to budget grass for both fuel and forage. The Grazing Manager (TGM) is a software program that projects both forage production (expressed as animal unit days) and, animal demand (expressed as animal unit days) for each forage year. TGM has been successfully used on the Texas A&M University Research Station at Sonora as a tool to integrate prescribed fire and grazing management.     

未来气候变化对东北地区玉米单产影响的模拟研究

东北地区是我国具有战略意义的商品粮基地,研究气候变化对东北地区玉米产量的影响具有重要意义。采用区域气候模式与作物生长WOFOST模型相结合的方法,模拟了基准气候(BS,1961-1990年)和B2情景下2011-2050年东北地区的玉米单产,初步预测了未来气候情景下玉米单产的变化状况。结果表明:WOFOST作物模型能较好的模拟东北地区的玉米产量,模型检验结果表明,该模型对玉米产量的模拟在70%～80%年份里的模拟精确度在80%以上。模拟结果显示:未来10-20年内,东北地区北部大部地区玉米具有增产潜力,但就北地区整体而言,总体增产幅度较小。2030s和2040s东北地区大部受气候因素影响表现为减产。未来40年,受气候变化影响东北地区玉米单产总体表现为减产,减产幅度为9.5%。由于目前的研究结果存在未考虑农业生产的适应措施等局限性,可能会高估气候变化的负面影响。     

Dryland agriculture and rangeland restoration priorities in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is threatened by rangeland degradation.A quantitative visual analysis of Google Earth Imagery was used to systematically locate,characterize and quantify the current extent of rangelands in Afghanistan degraded as a consequence of dryland agriculture.Climate data were used in conjunction with dryland agriculture locations to establish a climate envelope comprised by temperature and mean annual precipitation to create a geographical mask known to contain dryland agriculture.Within this mask we created a grid of 100 km2 cells that we analyzed individually to access dryland agriculture extent.Climatic limits to sustainable dryland agriculture and areas of high restoration priority were also assessed as was the distribution of rain-fed agriculture with respect to the location of traditional migration routes for extensive livestock producers.The extents of agriculture in Afghanistan,at both upper and lower elevations,correlated most closely with mean annual temperature(MAT) at the upper elevation limits,and with mean annual precipitation(MAP) at the lower elevation limits.In total,dryland agriculture comprised 38,980 km2 of former native rangeland.Conversion was highest in the northwestern,northern and northeastern provinces of Herat,Badghis,Faryab,Jawzjan,Sar-e-Pul,Samangan,Balkh,Baghlan,Kunduz,Takhar and Badakhshan,with the highest percentage of conversion occurring in Takhar.An MAP value of <400 mm is perceived by farmers as the current climatic limit to sustainable dryland agriculture across the northern regions of the country.Uder this MAP value,approximately 27,677 km2 of converted rangeland met the need for restoration priority.Climate projections indicate that Afghanistan will become warmer and drier in the coming decades.One consequence of this trend is that the MAP threshold of <400 mm to sustainable dryland agriculture will become obsolete in the coming decades.Restoration of currently converted rangelands is needed to restore critical grazing areas as is the adoption of prudent range management policies to prevent further land degradation and support a vital livestock industry.Food security is at stake as the conversion of rangelands to unsustainable rain-fed agriculture may leave large tracks of land unusable for either agriculture or livestock production.     

追氮及收获期对饲用青莜麦产量及秸秆蛋白质含量的影响

就追氮和收获期对3个青莜麦品种的产量和秸秆蛋白质含量的影响进行研究。结果表明,追氮可显著提高青莜麦产量和秸秆的蛋白质含量。沙地追氮69 kg/hm2时增产显著,青莜麦干重产量达6 023.4 kg/hm2,滩地青莜麦的产量最高,干重产量达9 013.4 kg/hm2;追氮69 kg/hm2,沙地青莜麦秸秆中粗蛋白和真蛋白含量分别为12.09%和7.45%,比对照提高了6.81和3.61个百分点;追氮量在69 kg/hm2水平上,每增加69 kg/hm2,青莜麦秸秆中粗蛋白质和真蛋白的增幅均显著下降。乳熟早期收获的青莜麦产量最高,品16的干重产量达10 916.7kg/hm2,9348的干重产量达10 700.0 kg/hm2;乳熟早期收获,粗蛋白向真蛋白的转化率最高。     

Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River,Tianshan Mountains

As important freshwater resources in alpine basins, glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming, thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic development. However, impact assessments of the economic losses caused by reductions in freshwater supply are quite limited. This study aims to project changes in glacier meltwater and snowmelt of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains under future climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 (RCP, Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) by applying a hydrological model and estimate the economic losses from future meltwater reduction for industrial, agricultural, service, and domestic water uses combined with the present value method for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s. The results indicate that total annual glacier meltwater and snowmelt will decrease by 65.6% and 74.5% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the 2090s relative to the baseline period (1980-2010), respectively. Compared to the RCP2.6 scenario, the projected economic loss values of total water use from reduced glacier meltwater and snowmelt under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase by 435.10×10⁶ and 537.20×10⁶ CNY in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively, and the cumulative economic loss value for 2099 is approximately 2124.00×10⁶ CNY. We also find that the industrial and agricultural sectors would likely face the largest and smallest economic losses, respectively. The economic loss value of snowmelt in different sectorial sectors is greater than that of glacier meltwater. These findings highlight the need for climate mitigation actions, industrial transformation, and rational water allocation to be considered in decision-making in the Tianshan Mountains in the future.     

Binomial sequential sampling plans for rangeland grasshoppers

Advances in sampling technology have made it possible to developbinomial sequential sampling plans for rangeland grasshoppers. Using this technique, grasshopper infestations can be rapidly classified into 'high' or 'low'categories relative to a threshold. We have developed a set of binomial sequential sampling tools, or plans, to assess the level of adult and nymphal grasshopper infestations on rangelands. The adult grasshopper plan was used to assess the level of grasshopper infestations throughout Wyoming, USA, in 1998; this resulted in a 79.5% reduction of the sampling effort. In addition, the adult sequential sampling plan was of sufficient scientific rigour to qualify some ranchers for federal disaster relief funds due to excessive grasshopper feeding. Grasshopper managers should consider using binomial sequential sampling plans wherever and whenever efficient surveys are needed to determine if grasshoppers are a threat to the production of rangeland forage and the maintenance of this ecosystem.     

气候变化对新疆意大利蝗潜在分布的影响

意大利蝗Calliptamus italicus(L.)是新疆草原主要优势蝗虫之一,每年给新疆畜牧业经济带来严重损失,气候变化对其潜在分布影响的预测对其科学防治有重要意义。本研究采用意大利蝗的分布数据和生物气候数据,结合MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件,预测了BCC_CSM1.1气候模式下政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次工作报告(IPCC AR5)采用的RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种气候情景在2021-2040年(2030s)、2041-2060年(2050s)和2061-2080年(2070s)的意大利蝗新疆潜在适生区分布范围。结果表明:在BCC_CSM1.1的各情景下,意大利蝗适生区在北疆及天山一带分布格局基本保持不变,但高度适生区面积都有所增加,其中在天山和阿尔泰山地区,意大利蝗中、高度适生区范围将向更高海拔区域蔓延,在北疆阿勒泰地区高度适生区明显增加。极端水分条件和水热条件对意大利蝗在新疆潜在分布发挥主要作用,其中4月、10月、3月和11月降水量对意大利蝗在新疆潜在分布影响最大,因其直接影响土壤相对含水量和土壤温度,从而决定意大利蝗卵的存活量。     

Runoff of arid and semi-arid regions simulated and projected by CLM-DTVGM and its multi-scale fluctuations as revealed by EEMD analysis

Runoff is a major component of the water cycle,and its multi-scale fluctuations are important to water resources management across arid and semi-arid regions.This paper coupled the Distributed Time Variant Gain Model(DTVGM)into the Community Land Model(CLM 3.5),replacing the TOPMODEL-based method to simulate runoff in the arid and semi-arid regions of China.The coupled model was calibrated at five gauging stations for the period 1980–2005 and validated for the period 2006–2010.Then,future runoff(2010–2100)was simulated for different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP)emission scenarios.After that,the spatial distributions of the future runoff for these scenarios were discussed,and the multi-scale fluctuation characteristics of the future annual runoff for the RCP scenarios were explored using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD)analysis method.Finally,the decadal variabilities of the future annual runoff for the entire study area and the five catchments in it were investigated.The results showed that the future annual runoff had slowly decreasing trends for scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 during the period 2010–2100,whereas it had a non-monotonic trend for the RCP 4.5 scenario,with a slow increase after the 2050 s.Additionally,the future annual runoff clearly varied over a decadal time scale,indicating that it had clear divisions between dry and wet periods.The longest dry period was approximately 15 years(2040–2055)for the RCP 2.6 scenario and 25 years(2045–2070)for the RCP 4.5 scenario.However,the RCP 8.5 scenario was predicted to have a long dry period starting from 2045.Under these scenarios,the water resources situation of the study area will be extremely severe.Therefore,adaptive water management measures addressing climate change should be adopted to proactively confront the risks of water resources.     

The Struggle for a Uniform Monitoring System

Development of rangeland inventory and monitoring was initiated as early as in 1908. The early efforts were simple methods to establish rangeland stocking rates. With advancing scientific methodologies and the recognition for moitoring needs, the evaluation of range conditions and management planning increase well after WWII by a number of US federal agencies. By 1970s the environmental protection measures were first emphasized in the USA and were applied also to rangeland utilization. Since then the approaches and methodologies for evaluation of rangelands have changed periodically by accommodating the tenets of federal administrations. The methodologies applied have been geared either to support the environmental preservation or to support economic exploitation. There is still no system, however, for national or regional reporting on range conditions and trends. Local monitoring and management systems often lack scientific and objective basis. Local surveys, however, are important for evaluating existing conditions and should not be based on national reporting requirements. The ecological site concept has been adopted as the toxonomic unit for rangeland classification. It is important that monitoring methods are not biased, based on sufficient sample sizes, and not based on "estimations". The forage allocation based on one-time inventories are seriously flawed and the methods for evaluating stocking rates must be reevaluated. The same applies to the evaluating the rangeland "health." A unified national reporting system must be developed on scientific and objective basis.     

Climate change in the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains based on GCM simulation ensemble with Bayesian model averaging

Climate change in mountainous regions has significant impacts on hydrological and ecological systems. This research studied the future temperature, precipitation and snowfall in the 21~(st) century for the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains(TKM) based on the general circulation model(GCM) simulation ensemble from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5(CMIP5) under the representative concentration pathway(RCP) lower emission scenario RCP4.5 and higher emission scenario RCP8.5 using the Bayesian model averaging(BMA) technique. Results show that(1) BMA significantly outperformed the simple ensemble analysis and BMA mean matches all the three observed climate variables;(2) at the end of the 21~(st) century(2070–2099) under RCP8.5, compared to the control period(1976–2005), annual mean temperature and mean annual precipitation will rise considerably by 4.8°C and 5.2%, respectively, while mean annual snowfall will dramatically decrease by 26.5%;(3) precipitation will increase in the northern Tianshan region while decrease in the Amu Darya Basin. Snowfall will significantly decrease in the western TKM. Mean annual snowfall fraction will also decrease from 0.56 of 1976–2005 to 0.42 of 2070–2099 under RCP8.5; and(4) snowfall shows a high sensitivity to temperature in autumn and spring while a low sensitivity in winter, with the highest sensitivity values occurring at the edge areas of TKM. The projections mean that flood risk will increase and solid water storage will decrease.     

Herbaceous vegetation response to controlled fire and postfire defoliation in a semiarid rangeland of Argentina

Semiarid rangelands of central Argentina are shaped by fire and grazing. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of controlled fire on aboveground biomass production of (1) herbaceous species as a whole group and (2) herbaceous species subclassified as desirable or undesirable perennial grasses and as herbaceous forbs at the end of two growing seasons after an experimental fire in a semiarid rangeland of central Argentina. The effect of the length of the resting period after fire on aboveground biomass production of desirable perennial grass species was also assessed; treatments consisted in defoliations at the end of the first and second postfire growing seasons, at the beginning and at the end of the second postfire growing season and only at the end of the second postfire growing season. Total biomass production of the burned treatments was higher than that of the control treatment, the difference being attributed to an increase in desirable perennial grass species biomass. This in turn was negatively affected by defoliation at the end of the first postfire growing season, suggesting that the beneficial effect of fire on biomass production might have been overridden by the stress imposed by an early defoliation. Overall, the results of the present study suggest that grazing should be held back for at least a whole year after the fire to achieve the pursued aim of increasing forage production by the use of controlled fire.     

西北干旱区白刺属植物适生环境的模拟分析

白刺属(Nitraria L.)植物是古地中海第三纪孑遗植物,对我国西北干旱、半干旱地区具有极高的生态效益.本研究基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件及其SDM工具箱预测了过去到未来不同时期下白刺属6个物种在我国的潜在适生区及其迁移路线,以期为该属植物的保护及资源利用方面提供一定的理论依据.结果表明:白刺属植物当代在...     

Implications of future climate change on crop and irrigation water requirements in a semi-arid river basin using CMIP6 GCMs

Agriculture faces risks due to increasing stress from climate change, particularly in semi-arid regions. Lack of understanding of crop water requirement (CWR) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) in a changing climate may result in crop failure and socioeconomic problems that can become detrimental to agriculture-based economies in emerging nations worldwide. Previous research in CWR and IWR has largely focused on large river basins and scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to account for the impacts of climate change on crops. Smaller basins, however, are more susceptible to regional climate change, with more significant impacts on crops. This study estimates CWRs and IWRs for five crops (sugarcane, wheat, cotton, sorghum, and soybean) in the Pravara River Basin (area of 6537 km²) of India using outputs from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)245 and SSP585 scenarios. An increase in mean annual rainfall is projected under both scenarios in the 2050s and 2080s using ten selected CMIP6 GCMs. CWRs for all crops may decline in almost all of the CMIP6 GCMs in the 2050s and 2080s (with the exceptions of ACCESS-CM-2 and ACCESS-ESM-1.5) under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The availability of increasing soil moisture in the root zone due to increasing rainfall and a decrease in the projected maximum temperature may be responsible for this decline in CWR. Similarly, except for soybean and cotton, the projected IWRs for all other three crops under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios show a decrease or a small increase in the 2050s and 2080s in most CMIP6 GCMs. These findings are important for agricultural researchers and water resource managers to implement long-term crop planning techniques and to reduce the negative impacts of climate change and associated rainfall variability to avert crop failure and agricultural losses.     

全球气候变化背景下渭北旱塬气候变化及气候生产力研究

运用数理统计方法对渭北旱塬5市19个代表性气象站点1970—2010年的气温及降水量气象要素进行了统计分析,研究了全球气候变化背景下渭北旱塬气候变化及气候生产力对其响应。结果表明:渭北旱塬年、季平均气温均呈明显上升趋势,春季和冬季的升温幅度较大;年、季降水总量呈下降趋势,其中春季及秋季的降水量呈下降趋势,而夏季及冬季的降水量呈上升趋势;气候生产力呈增加趋势,未来暖湿型气候对作物生产最为有利,气候生产力平均增加12.1%,"冷干型"气候对作物生产最为不利,气候生产力平均减少18.3%。