New evidence on the state of stress of the san andreas fault system

Contemporary in situ tectonic stress indicators along the San Andreas fault system in central California show northeast-directed horizontal compression that is nearly perpendicular to the strike of the fault. Such compression explains recent uplift of the Coast Ranges and the numerous active reverse faults and folds that trend nearly parallel to the San Andreas and that are otherwise unexplainable in terms of strike-slip deformation. Fault-normal crustal compression in central California is proposed to result from the extremely low shear strength of the San Andreas and the slightly convergent relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Preliminary in situ stress data from the Cajon Pass scientific drill hole (located 3.6 kilometers northeast of the San Andreas in southern California near San Bernardino, California) are also consistent with a weak fault, as they show no right-lateral shear stress at approximately 2-kilometer depth on planes parallel to the San Andreas fault.     

The loma prieta, california, earthquake: an anticipated event

The first major earthquake on the San Andreas fault since 1906 fulfilled a long-term forecast for its rupture in the southern Santa Cruz Mountains. Severe damage occurred at distances of up to 100 kilometers from the epicenter in areas underlain by ground known to be hazardous in strong earthquakes. Stronger earthquakes will someday strike closer to urban centers in the United States, most of which also contain hazardous ground. The Loma Prieta earthquake demonstrated that meaningful predictions can be made of potential damage patterns and that, at least in well-studied areas, long-term forecasts can be made of future earthquake locations and magnitudes. Such forecasts can serve as a basis for action to reduce the threat major earthquakes pose to the United States.     

Earthquake Swarm Along the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977

Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude 相似文献   

Change in failure stress on the southern san andreas fault system caused by the 1992 magnitude = 7.4 landers earthquake

The 28 June Landers earthquake brought the San Andreas fault significantly closer to failure near San Bernardino, a site that has not sustained a large shock since 1812. Stress also increased on the San Jacinto fault near San Bernardino and on the San Andreas fault southeast of Palm Springs. Unless creep or moderate earthquakes relieve these stress changes, the next great earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault is likely to be advanced by one to two decades. In contrast, stress on the San Andreas north of Los Angeles dropped, potentially delaying the next great earthquake there by 2 to 10 years.     

Aseismic uplift in southern california

Preliminary examination of the historic geodetic record has disclosed crustal uplift of 0.15 to 0.25 meter that apparently began around 1960 and has since grown to include at least 12,000 square kilometers of southern California. This uplift extends at least 150 kilometers west-northwestward along the San Andreas Fault from Cajon to Maricopa, southward from the San Andreas into the northern Transverse Ranges, and eastward from Lebec into and including much of western Mojave block. It seems to have grown spasmodically eastward from a center near the junction of the San Andreas and Garlock faults and has occurred largely within an area that has remained virtually aseismic since at least 1932. Although much of this area has been characterized by crustal mobility since at least the turn the century, the described uplift seems to be an unusually large and probably unique event superimposed the existing pattern of continuing deformation.     

Evidence for 115 kilometers of right slip on the san gregorio-hosgri fault trend

The San Gregorio-Hosgri fault trend is a component of the San Andreas fault system on which there may have been about 115 kilometers of post-early Miocene right-lateral strike slip. If so, right slip on the San Andreas and San Gregorio-Hosgri faults accounts for most of the movement between the Pacific and North American plates since mid-Miocene time. Furthermore, the magnitude of right slip on a Paleogene proto-San Andreas fault inferred from the present distribution of granitic basement is reduced considerably when Neogene-Recent San Gregorio-Hosgri right slip is taken into account.     

Irregular recurrence of large earthquakes along the san andreas fault: evidence from trees

Old trees growing along the San Andreas fault near Wrightwood, California, record in their annual ring-width patterns the effects of a major earthquake in the fall or winter of 1812 to 1813. Paleoseismic data and historical information indicate that this event was the "San Juan Capistrano" earthquake of 8 December 1812, with a magnitude of 7.5. The discovery that at least 12 kilometers of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas fault ruptured in 1812, only 44 years before the great January 1857 rupture, demonstrates that intervals between large earthquakes on this part of the fault are highly variable. This variability increases the uncertainty of forecasting destructive earthquakes on the basis of past behavior and accentuates the need for a more fundamental knowledge of San Andreas fault dynamics.     

Episodic strain accumulation in southern california

Reexamination of horizontal geodetic data in the region of recently discovered aseismic uplift has demonstrated that equally unusual horizontal crustal deformation accompanied the development of the uplift. During this time interval compressive strains were oriented roughly normal to the San Andreas fault, suggesting that the uplift produced little shear strain accumulation across this fault. On the other hand, the orientation of the anomalous shear straining is consistent with strain accumulation across northdipping range-front thrusts like the San Fernando fault. Accordingly, the horizontal and vertical crustal deformation disclosed by geodetic observation is interpreted as a short epoch of rapid strain accumulation on these frontal faults. If this interpretation is correct, thrust-type earthquakes will eventually release the accumulated strains, but the geodetic data examined here cannot be used to estimate when these events might occur. However, observation of an unusual sequence of tilts prior to 1971 on a level line lying to the north of the magnitude 6.4 San Fernando earthquake offers some promise for precursor monitoring. The data are adequately explained by a simple model of up-dip aseismic slip propagation toward the 1971 epicentral region. These observations and the simple model that accounts for them suggest a conceptually straightforward monitoring scheme to search for similar uplift and tilt precursors within the uplifted region. Such premonitory effects could be detected by a combination of frequenlty repeated short (30 to 70 km in length) level line measurements, precise gravity traverses, and continuously recording gravimeters sited to the north of the active frontal thrust faults. Once identified, such precursors could be closely followed in space and time, and might then provide effective warnings of impending potentially destructive earth-quakes.     

A look inside the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield through vertical seismic profiling

The San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth pilot hole is located on the southwestern side of the Parkfield San Andreas fault. This observatory includes a vertical seismic profiling (VSP) array. VSP seismograms from nearby microearthquakes contain signals between the P and S waves. These signals may be P and S waves scattered by the local geologic structure. The collected scattering points form planar surfaces that we interpret as the San Andreas fault and four other secondary faults. The scattering process includes conversions between P and S waves, the strengths of which suggest large contrasts in material properties, possibly indicating the presence of cracks or fluids.     

Postseismic relaxation along the San Andreas fault at Parkfield from continuous seismological observations

Seismic velocity changes and nonvolcanic tremor activity in the Parkfield area in California reveal that large earthquakes induce long-term perturbations of crustal properties in the San Andreas fault zone. The 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes both reduced seismic velocities that were measured from correlations of the ambient seismic noise and induced an increased nonvolcanic tremor activity along the San Andreas fault. After the Parkfield earthquake, velocity reduction and nonvolcanic tremor activity remained elevated for more than 3 years and decayed over time, similarly to afterslip derived from GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements. These observations suggest that the seismic velocity changes are related to co-seismic damage in the shallow layers and to deep co-seismic stress change and postseismic stress relaxation within the San Andreas fault zone.     

San andreas fault zone head waves near parkfield, california

Microearthquake seismograms from the borehole seismic network on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California, provide three lines of evidence that first P arrivals are "head" waves refracted along the cross-fault material contrast. First, the travel time difference between these arrivals and secondary phases identified as direct P waves scales linearly with the source-receiver distance. Second, these arrivals have the emergent wave character associated in theory and practice with refracted head waves instead of the sharp first breaks associated with direct P arrivals. Third, the first motion polarities of the emergent arrivals are reversed from those of the direct P waves as predicted by the theory of fault zone head waves for slip on the San Andreas fault. The presence of fault zone head waves in local seismic network data may help account for scatter in earthquake locations and source mechanisms. The fault zone head waves indicate that the velocity contrast across the San Andreas fault near Parkfield is approximately 4 percent. Further studies of these waves may provide a way of assessing changes in the physical state of the fault system.     

Local geomagnetic events associated with displacements on the san andreas fault

The piezomagnetic properties of rock suggest that a change in subsurface stress will manifest itself as a change in the magnetic susceptibility and remanent magnetization and hence the local geomagnetic field. A differential array of magnetometers has been operating since late 1965 on the San Andreas fault in the search for piezomagnetic signals under conditions involving active fault stress. Local changes in the geomagnetic field have been observed near Hollister, California, some tens of hours preceding the onset of abrupt creep displacement on the San Andreas fault.     

North american--pacific relative plate motion in southern california from interferometry

Very long baseline interferometry measurements of baselines crossing the San Andreas fault zone in southern California have provided observational constraints on rates of elastic tectonic strain accumulation. The single site located near this fault (the Jet Propulsion Laboratory site) moves in a direction concordant with the Pacific plate motion vector but at approximately half the net rate relative to North America. This motion agrees approximately in amount with geologically determined displacement rates on the San Andreas fault alone but not with the local strike of the fault. When considered together with complementary geodetic data, these results suggest a complex relation between the short-term accumulation of elastic strain and its permanent accommodation on existing faults.     

Stress diffusion along the san andreas fault at parkfield, california

Beginning in January 1990, the epicenters of microearthquakes associated with a 12-month increase in seismicity near Parkfield, California, moved northwest to southeast along the San Andreas fault. During this sequence of events, the locally variable rate of cumulative seismic moment increased. This increase implies a local increase in fault slip. These data suggest that a southeastwardly diffusing stress front propagated along the San Andreas fault at a speed of 30 to 50 kilometers per year. Evidently, this front did not load the Parkfield asperities fast enough to produce a moderate earthquake; however, a future front might do so.     

Changes in state of stress on the southern san andreas fault resulting from the california earthquake sequence of april to june 1992

The April to June 1992 Landers earthquake sequence in southern California modified the state of stress along nearby segments of the San Andreas fault, causing a 50-kilometer segment of the fault to move significantly closer to failure where it passes through a compressional bend near San Gorgonio Pass. The decrease in compressive normal stress may also have reduced fluid pressures along that fault segment. As pressures are reequilibrated by diffusion, that fault segment should move closer to failure with time. That fault segment and another to the southeast probably have not ruptured in a great earthquake in about 300 years.     

Fault interactions and large complex earthquakes in the Los Angeles area

Faults in complex tectonic environments interact in various ways, including triggered rupture of one fault by another, that may increase seismic hazard in the surrounding region. We model static and dynamic fault interactions between the strike-slip and thrust fault systems in southern California. We find that rupture of the Sierra Madre-Cucamonga thrust fault system is unlikely to trigger rupture of the San Andreas or San Jacinto strike-slip faults. However, a large northern San Jacinto fault earthquake could trigger a cascading rupture of the Sierra Madre-Cucamonga system, potentially causing a moment magnitude 7.5 to 7.8 earthquake on the edge of the Los Angeles metropolitan region.     

Fault zone connectivity: slip rates on faults in the san francisco bay area, california

The slip rate of a fault segment is related to the length of the fault zone of which it is part. In turn, the slip rate of a fault zone is related to its connectivity with adjoining or contiguous fault zones. The observed variation in slip rate on fault segments in the San Francisco Bay area in California is consistent with connectivity between the Hayward, Calaveras, and San Andreas fault zones. Slip rates on the southern Hayward fault taper northward from a maximum of more than 10 millimeters per year and are sensitive to the active length of the Maacama fault.     

Surface displacements in the 1906 san francisco and 1989 loma prieta earthquakes

The horizontal displacements accompanying the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are computed from geodetic survey measurements. The 1906 earthquake displacement field is entirely consistent with right-lateral strike slip on the San Andreas fault. In contrast, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake exhibited subequal components of strike slip and reverse faulting. This result, together with other seismic and geologic data, may indicate that the two earthquakes occurred on two different fault planes.     

Strain on the san andreas fault near palmdale, california: rapid, aseismic change

Frequently repeated strain measurements near Palmdale, California, during the period from 1971 through 1980 indicate that, in addition to a uniform accumulation of right-lateral shear strain (engineering shear, 0.35 microradian per year) across the San Andreas fault, a 1-microstrain contraction perpendicular to the fault that accumulated gradually during the interval 1974 through 1978 was aseismically released between February and November 1979. Subsequently (November 1979 to March 1980), about half of the contraction was recovered. This sequence of strain changes can be explained in terms of south-southwestward migration of a slip event consisting of the south-southwestward movement of the upper crust on a horizontal detachment surface at a depth of 10 to 30 kilometers. The large strain change in 1979 corresponds to the passage of the slip event beneath the San Andreas fault.     

Magnitude of shear stress on the san andreas fault: implications of a stress measurement profile at shallow depth

A profile of measurements of shear stress perpendicular to the San Andreas fault near Palmdale, California, shows a marked increase in stress with distance from the fault. The pattern suggests that shear stress on the fault increases slowly with depth and reaches a value on the order of the average stress released during earthquakes. This result has important implications for both long- and shortterm prediction of large earthquakes.