Stress diffusion along the san andreas fault at parkfield, california

Beginning in January 1990, the epicenters of microearthquakes associated with a 12-month increase in seismicity near Parkfield, California, moved northwest to southeast along the San Andreas fault. During this sequence of events, the locally variable rate of cumulative seismic moment increased. This increase implies a local increase in fault slip. These data suggest that a southeastwardly diffusing stress front propagated along the San Andreas fault at a speed of 30 to 50 kilometers per year. Evidently, this front did not load the Parkfield asperities fast enough to produce a moderate earthquake; however, a future front might do so.     

Slip deficit on the san andreas fault at parkfield, california, as revealed by inversion of geodetic data

A network of geodetic lines spanning the San Andreas fault near the rupture zone of the 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquake (magnitude M = 6) has been repeatedly surveyed since 1959. In the study reported here the average rates of line-length change since 1966 were inverted to determine the distribution of interseismic slip rate on the fault. These results indicate that the Parkfield rupture surface has not slipped significantly since 1966. Comparison of the geodetically determined seismic moment of the 1966 earthquake with the interseismic slip-deficit rate suggests that the strain released by the latest shock will most likely be restored between 1984 and 1989, although this may not occur until 1995. These results lend independent support to the earlier forecast of an M = 6 earthquake near Parkfield within 5 years of 1988.     

A 100-year average recurrence interval for the san andreas fault at wrightwood, california

Evidence for five large earthquakes during the past five centuries along the San Andreas fault zone 70 kilometers northeast of Los Angeles, California, indicates that the average recurrence interval and the temporal variability are significantly smaller than previously thought. Rapid sedimentation during the past 5000 years in a 150-meter-wide structural depression has produced a greater than 21-meter-thick sequence of debris flow and stream deposits interbedded with more than 50 datable peat layers. Fault scarps, colluvial wedges, fissure infills, upward termination of ruptures, and tilted and folded deposits above listric faults provide evidence for large earthquakes that occurred in A.D. 1857, 1812, and about 1700, 1610, and 1470.     

San andreas fault zone head waves near parkfield, california

Microearthquake seismograms from the borehole seismic network on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California, provide three lines of evidence that first P arrivals are "head" waves refracted along the cross-fault material contrast. First, the travel time difference between these arrivals and secondary phases identified as direct P waves scales linearly with the source-receiver distance. Second, these arrivals have the emergent wave character associated in theory and practice with refracted head waves instead of the sharp first breaks associated with direct P arrivals. Third, the first motion polarities of the emergent arrivals are reversed from those of the direct P waves as predicted by the theory of fault zone head waves for slip on the San Andreas fault. The presence of fault zone head waves in local seismic network data may help account for scatter in earthquake locations and source mechanisms. The fault zone head waves indicate that the velocity contrast across the San Andreas fault near Parkfield is approximately 4 percent. Further studies of these waves may provide a way of assessing changes in the physical state of the fault system.     

Interaction of the san jacinto and san andreas fault zones, southern california: triggered earthquake migration and coupled recurrence intervals

Two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) or the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other. First, the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in the SAFZ seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the SJFZ. These earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1.7 kilometers per year along the SJFZ after the 1857 earthquake. Second, the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the SJFZ (about 150 years) and in the Mojave segment of the SAFZ (132 years) suggests that large earthquakes in the northern SJFZ may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the Mojave segment. Analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the SJFZ suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences.     

Strain on the san andreas fault near palmdale, california: rapid, aseismic change

Frequently repeated strain measurements near Palmdale, California, during the period from 1971 through 1980 indicate that, in addition to a uniform accumulation of right-lateral shear strain (engineering shear, 0.35 microradian per year) across the San Andreas fault, a 1-microstrain contraction perpendicular to the fault that accumulated gradually during the interval 1974 through 1978 was aseismically released between February and November 1979. Subsequently (November 1979 to March 1980), about half of the contraction was recovered. This sequence of strain changes can be explained in terms of south-southwestward migration of a slip event consisting of the south-southwestward movement of the upper crust on a horizontal detachment surface at a depth of 10 to 30 kilometers. The large strain change in 1979 corresponds to the passage of the slip event beneath the San Andreas fault.     

Observations of strain accumulation across the san andreas fault near palmdale, california, with a two-color geodimeter

Two-color laser ranging measurements during a 15-month period over a geodetic network spanning the San Andreas fault near Palmdale, California, indicate that the crust expands and contracts aseismically in episodes as short as 2 weeks. Shear strain parallel to the fault has accumulated monotonically since November 1980, but at a variable rate. Improvements in measurement precision and temporal resolution over those of previous geodetic studies near Palmdale have resulted in the definition of a time history of crustal deformation that is much more complex than formerly realized.     

Irregular recurrence of large earthquakes along the san andreas fault: evidence from trees

Old trees growing along the San Andreas fault near Wrightwood, California, record in their annual ring-width patterns the effects of a major earthquake in the fall or winter of 1812 to 1813. Paleoseismic data and historical information indicate that this event was the "San Juan Capistrano" earthquake of 8 December 1812, with a magnitude of 7.5. The discovery that at least 12 kilometers of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas fault ruptured in 1812, only 44 years before the great January 1857 rupture, demonstrates that intervals between large earthquakes on this part of the fault are highly variable. This variability increases the uncertainty of forecasting destructive earthquakes on the basis of past behavior and accentuates the need for a more fundamental knowledge of San Andreas fault dynamics.     

Local geomagnetic events associated with displacements on the san andreas fault

The piezomagnetic properties of rock suggest that a change in subsurface stress will manifest itself as a change in the magnetic susceptibility and remanent magnetization and hence the local geomagnetic field. A differential array of magnetometers has been operating since late 1965 on the San Andreas fault in the search for piezomagnetic signals under conditions involving active fault stress. Local changes in the geomagnetic field have been observed near Hollister, California, some tens of hours preceding the onset of abrupt creep displacement on the San Andreas fault.     

Electrical resistivity variations associated with earthquakes on the san andreas fault

A 24 percent precursory change in apparent electrical resistivity was observed before a magnitude 3.9 earthquake of strike-slip nature on the San Andreas fault in central California. The experimental configuration and numerical calculations suggest that the change is associated with a volume at depth rather than some near-surface phenomenon. The character and duration of the precursor period agree well with those of other earthquake studies and support a dilatant earthquake mechanism model.     

Seismic trapped modes in the oroville and san andreas fault zones

Three-component borehole seismic profiling of the recently active Oroville, California, normal fault and microearthquake event recording with a near-fault three-component borehole seismometer on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, have shown numerous instances of pronounced dispersive wave trains following the shear wave arrivals. These wave trains are interpreted as fault zone-trapped seismic modes. Parkfield earthquakes exciting trapped modes have been located as deep as 10 kilometers, as shallow as 4 kilometers, and extend 12 kilometers along the fault on either side of the recording station. Selected Oroville and Parkfield wave forms are modeled as the fundamental and first higher trapped SH modes of a narrow low-velocity layer at the fault. Modeling results suggest that the Oroville fault zone is 18 meters wide at depth and has a shear wave velocity of 1 kilometer per second, whereas at Parkfield, the fault gouge is 100 to 150 meters wide and has a shear wave velocity of 1.1 to 1.8 kilometers per second. These low-velocity layers are probably the rupture planes on which earthquakes occur.     

Changes in state of stress on the southern san andreas fault resulting from the california earthquake sequence of april to june 1992

The April to June 1992 Landers earthquake sequence in southern California modified the state of stress along nearby segments of the San Andreas fault, causing a 50-kilometer segment of the fault to move significantly closer to failure where it passes through a compressional bend near San Gorgonio Pass. The decrease in compressive normal stress may also have reduced fluid pressures along that fault segment. As pressures are reequilibrated by diffusion, that fault segment should move closer to failure with time. That fault segment and another to the southeast probably have not ruptured in a great earthquake in about 300 years.     

Variations in strength and slip rate along the san andreas fault system

Convergence across the San Andreas fault (SAF) system is partitioned between strike-slip motion on the vertical SAF and oblique-slip motion on parallel dip-slip faults, as illustrated by the recent magnitude M(s) = 6.0 Palm Springs, M(s) = 6.7 Coalinga, and M(s) = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquakes. If the partitioning of slip minimizes the work done against friction, the direction of slip during these recent earthquakes depends primarily on fault dip and indicates that the normal stress coefficient and frictional coefficient (micro) vary among the faults. Additionally, accounting for the active dip-slip faults reduces estimates of fault slip rates along the vertical trace of the SAF by about 50 percent in the Loma Prieta and 100 percent in the North Palm Springs segments.     

New evidence on the state of stress of the san andreas fault system

Contemporary in situ tectonic stress indicators along the San Andreas fault system in central California show northeast-directed horizontal compression that is nearly perpendicular to the strike of the fault. Such compression explains recent uplift of the Coast Ranges and the numerous active reverse faults and folds that trend nearly parallel to the San Andreas and that are otherwise unexplainable in terms of strike-slip deformation. Fault-normal crustal compression in central California is proposed to result from the extremely low shear strength of the San Andreas and the slightly convergent relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Preliminary in situ stress data from the Cajon Pass scientific drill hole (located 3.6 kilometers northeast of the San Andreas in southern California near San Bernardino, California) are also consistent with a weak fault, as they show no right-lateral shear stress at approximately 2-kilometer depth on planes parallel to the San Andreas fault.     

Magnitude of shear stress on the san andreas fault: implications of a stress measurement profile at shallow depth

A profile of measurements of shear stress perpendicular to the San Andreas fault near Palmdale, California, shows a marked increase in stress with distance from the fault. The pattern suggests that shear stress on the fault increases slowly with depth and reaches a value on the order of the average stress released during earthquakes. This result has important implications for both long- and shortterm prediction of large earthquakes.     

Evolution of the northern santa cruz mountains by advection of crust past a san andreas fault bend

The late Quaternary marine terraces near Santa Cruz, California, reflect uplift associated with the nearby restraining bend on the San Andreas fault. Excellent correspondence of the coseismic vertical displacement field caused by the 17 October 1989 magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake and the present elevations of these terraces allows calculation of maximum long-term uplift rates 1 to 2 kilometers west of the San Andreas fault of 0.8 millimeters per year. Over several million years, this uplift, in concert with the right lateral translation of the resulting topography, and with continual attack by geomorphic processes, can account for the general topography of the northern Santa Cruz Mountains.     

Change in failure stress on the southern san andreas fault system caused by the 1992 magnitude = 7.4 landers earthquake

The 28 June Landers earthquake brought the San Andreas fault significantly closer to failure near San Bernardino, a site that has not sustained a large shock since 1812. Stress also increased on the San Jacinto fault near San Bernardino and on the San Andreas fault southeast of Palm Springs. Unless creep or moderate earthquakes relieve these stress changes, the next great earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault is likely to be advanced by one to two decades. In contrast, stress on the San Andreas north of Los Angeles dropped, potentially delaying the next great earthquake there by 2 to 10 years.     

Earthquake-induced structures in sediments of van Norman lake, san fernando, california

The 9 February 1971 earthquake in the San Fernando Valley damaged the Lower Van Norman Dam severely enough to warrant draining the reservoir. In March 1972 the sediment deposited on the reservoir floor was examined to determine whether the 1971 earthquake had induced sediment deformation and, if so, what types. A zone of deformational structures characterized by small-scale loads and slightly recumbent folds associated with the 1971 earthquake was discovered, in addition to two older zones of load structures. Each of the zones has been tentatively correlated with an historic earthquake.     

Periodic pulsing of characteristic microearthquakes on the San Andreas fault

Deep fault slip information from characteristically repeating microearthquakes reveals previously unrecognized patterns of extensive, large-amplitude, long-duration, quasiperiodic repetition of aseismic events along much of a 175-kilometer segment of the central San Andreas fault. Pulsing occurs both in conjunction with and independent of transient slip from larger earthquakes. It extends to depths of approximately 10 to 11 kilometers but may be deeper, and it may be related to similar phenomena occurring in subduction zones. Over much of the study area, pulse onset periods also show a higher probability of larger earthquakes, which may provide useful information for earthquake forecasting.     

Fault zone connectivity: slip rates on faults in the san francisco bay area, california

The slip rate of a fault segment is related to the length of the fault zone of which it is part. In turn, the slip rate of a fault zone is related to its connectivity with adjoining or contiguous fault zones. The observed variation in slip rate on fault segments in the San Francisco Bay area in California is consistent with connectivity between the Hayward, Calaveras, and San Andreas fault zones. Slip rates on the southern Hayward fault taper northward from a maximum of more than 10 millimeters per year and are sensitive to the active length of the Maacama fault.