Forearc deformation and great subduction earthquakes: implications for cascadia offshore earthquake potential

The maximum size of thrust earthquakes at the world's subduction zones appears to be limited by anelastic deformation of the overriding plate. Anelastic strain in weak forearcs and roughness of the plate interface produced by faults cutting the forearc may limit the size of thrust earthquakes by inhibiting the buildup of elastic strain energy or slip propagation or both. Recently discovered active strike-slip faults in the submarine forearc of the Cascadia subduction zone show that the upper plate there deforms rapidly in response to arc-parallel shear. Thus, Cascadia, as a result of its weak, deforming upper plate, may be the type of subduction zone at which great (moment magnitude approximately 9) thrust earthquakes do not occur.     

Fluid processes in subduction zones

Fluids play a critical role in subduction zones and arc magmatism. At shallow levels in subduction zones (<40 kilometers depth), expulsion of large volumes of pore waters and CH(4)-H(2)O fluids produced by diagenetic and low-grade metamorphic reactions affect the thermal and rheological evolution of the accretionary prism and provide nutrients for deep-sea biological communities. At greater depths, H(2)O and CO(2) released by metamorphic reactions in the subducting oceanic crust may alter the bulk composition in the overlying mantle wedge and trigger partial melting reactions. The location and conse-quences of fluid production in subduction zones can be constrained by consideration of phase diagrams for relevant bulk compositions in conjunction with fluid and rock pressure-temperature-time paths predicted by numerical heat-transfer models. Partial melting of subducting, amphibole-bearing oceanic crust is predicted only within several tens of million years of the initiation of subduction in young oceanic lithosphere. In cooler subduction zones, partial melting appears to occur primarily in the overlying mantle wedge as a result of fluid infiltration.     

Tidal modulation of nonvolcanic tremor

Episodes of nonvolcanic tremor and accompanying slow slip recently have been observed in the subduction zones of Japan and Cascadia. In Cascadia, such episodes typically last a few weeks and differ from "normal" earthquakes in their source location and moment-duration scaling. The three most recent episodes in the Puget Sound/southern Vancouver Island portion of the Cascadia subduction zone were exceptionally well recorded. In each episode, we saw clear pulsing of tremor activity with periods of 12.4 and 24 to 25 hours, the same as the principal lunar and lunisolar tides. This indicates that the small stresses associated with the solid-earth and ocean tides influence the genesis of tremor much more effectively than they do the genesis of normal earthquakes. Because the lithostatic stresses are 10(5) times larger than those associated with the tides, we argue that tremor occurs on very weak faults.     

High-pressure creep of serpentine, interseismic deformation, and initiation of subduction

The supposed low viscosity of serpentine may strongly influence subduction-zone dynamics at all time scales, but until now its role could not be quantified because measurements relevant to intermediate-depth settings were lacking. Deformation experiments on the serpentine antigorite at high pressures and temperatures (1 to 4 gigapascals, 200 degrees to 500 degrees C) showed that the viscosity of serpentine is much lower than that of the major mantle-forming minerals. Regardless of the temperature, low-viscosity serpentinized mantle at the slab surface can localize deformation, impede stress buildup, and limit the downdip propagation of large earthquakes at subduction zones. Antigorite enables viscous relaxation with characteristic times comparable to those of long-term postseismic deformations after large earthquakes and slow earthquakes. Antigorite viscosity is sufficiently low to make serpentinized faults in the oceanic lithosphere a site for subduction initiation.     

Earthquakes beneath the Himalayas and Tibet: evidence for strong lithospheric mantle

Eleven intracontinental earthquakes, with magnitudes ranging from 4.9 to 6, occurred in the mantle beneath the western Himalayan syntaxis, the western Kunlun Mountains, and southern Tibet (near Xigaze) between 1963 and 1999. High-resolution seismic waveforms show that some focal depths exceeded 100 kilometers, indicating that these earthquakes occurred in the mantle portion of the lithosphere, even though the crust has been thickened there. The occurrence of earthquakes in the mantle beneath continental regions where the subduction of oceanic lithosphere ceased tens of millions years ago indicates that the mantle lithosphere is sufficiently strong to accumulate elastic strain.     

Response of high-rise and base-isolated buildings to a hypothetical mw 7.0 blind thrust earthquake

High-rise flexible-frame buildings are commonly considered to be resistant to shaking from the largest earthquakes. In addition, base isolation has become increasingly popular for critical buildings that should still function after an earthquake. How will these two types of buildings perform if a large earthquake occurs beneath a metropolitan area? To answer this question, we simulated the near-source ground motions of a M(w) 7.0 thrust earthquake and then mathematically modeled the response of a 20-story steel-frame building and a 3-story base-isolated building. The synthesized ground motions were characterized by large displacement pulses (up to 2 meters) and large ground velocities. These ground motions caused large deformation and possible collapse of the frame building, and they required exceptional measures in the design of the base-isolated building if it was to remain functional.     

A model for a seismic computerized alert network

In large earthquakes, damaging ground motions may occur at large epicentral distances. Because of the relatively slow speed of seismic waves, it is possible to construct a system to provide short-term warning (as much as several tens of seconds) of imminent strong ground motions from major earthquakes. Automated safety responses could be triggered by users after receiving estimates of the arrival time and strength of shaking expected at an individual site. Although warning times are likely to be short for areas greatly damaged by relatively numerous earthquakes of moderate size, large areas that experience very strong shaking during great earthquakes would receive longer warning times.     

Simulation of tsunamis from great earthquakes on the cascadia subduction zone

Large earthquakes occur episodically in the Cascadia subduction zone. A numerical model has been used to simulate and assess the hazards of a tsunami generated by a hypothetical earthquake of magnitude 8.5 associated with rupture of the northern sections of the subduction zone. Wave amplitudes on the outer coast are closely related to the magnitude of sea-bottom displacement (5.0 meters). Some amplification, up to a factor of 3, may occur in some coastal embayments. Wave amplitudes in the protected waters of Puget Sound and the Strait of Georgia are predicted to be only about one fifth of those estmated on the outer coast.     

Detection of large prehistoric earthquakes in the pacific northwest by microfossil analysis

Geologic and palynological evidence for rapid sea level change approximately 3400 and approximately 2000 carbon-14 years ago (3600 and 1900 calendar years ago) has been found at sites up to 110 kilometers apart in southwestern British Columbia. Submergence on southern Vancouver Island and slight emergence on the mainland during the older event are consistent with a great (magnitude M >/= 8) earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone. The younger event is characterized by submergence throughout the region and may also record a plate-boundary earthquake or a very large crustal or intraplate earthquake. Microfossil analysis can detect small amounts of coseismic uplift and subsidence that leave little or no lithostratigraphic signature.     

Mantle fault zone beneath Kilauea Volcano,Hawaii

Relocations and focal mechanism analyses of deep earthquakes (>/=13 kilometers) at Kilauea volcano demonstrate that seismicity is focused on an active fault zone at 30-kilometer depth, with seaward slip on a low-angle plane, and other smaller, distinct fault zones. The earthquakes we have analyzed predominantly reflect tectonic faulting in the brittle lithosphere rather than magma movement associated with volcanic activity. The tectonic earthquakes may be induced on preexisting faults by stresses of magmatic origin, although background stresses from volcano loading and lithospheric flexure may also contribute.     

Crustal architecture of the cascadia forearc

Seismic profiling data indicate that the thickness of an accreted oceanic terrane of Paleocene and early Eocene age, which forms the basement of much of the forearc beneath western Oregon and Washington, varies by approximately a factor of 4 along the strike of the Cascadia subduction zone. Beneath the Oregon Coast Range, the accreted terrane is 25 to 35 kilometers thick, whereas offshore Vancouver Island it is about 6 kilometers thick. These variations are correlated with variations in arc magmatism, forearc seismicity, and long-term forearc deformation. It is suggested that the strength of the forearc crust increases as the thickness of the accreted terrane increases and that the geometry of the seaward edge of this terrane influences deformation within the subduction complex and controls the amount of sediment that is deeply subducted.     

Mantle phase changes and deep-earthquake faulting in subducting lithosphere

Inclined zones of earthquakes are the primary expression of lithosphere subduction. A distinct deep population of subduction-zone earthquakes occurs at depths of 350 to 690 kilometers. At those depths ordinary brittle fracture and frictional sliding, the faulting processes of shallow earthquakes, are not expected. A fresh understanding of these deep earthquakes comes from developments in several areas of experimental and theoretical geophysics, including the discovery and characterization of transformational faulting, a shear instability connected with localized phase transformations under nonhydrostatic stress. These developments support the hypothesis that deep earthquakes represent transformational faulting in a wedge of olivine-rich peridotite that is likely to persist metastably in coldest plate interiors to depths as great as 690 km. Predictions based on this deep structure of mantle phase changes are consistent with the global depth distribution of deep earthquakes, the maximum depths of earthquakes in individual subductions zones, and key source characteristics of deep events.     

Rupture characteristics of the deep bolivian earthquake of 9 june 1994 and the mechanism of deep-focus earthquakes

The M(w) = 8.3 deep (636 kilometers) Bolivian earthquake of 9 June 1994 was the largest deep-focus earthquake ever recorded. Seismic data from permanent stations plus portable instruments in South America show that rupture occurred on a horizontal plane and extended at least 30 by 50 kilometers. Rupture proceeded at 1 to 3 kilometers per second along the down-dip azimuth of the slab and penetrated through more than a third of the slab thickness. This extent is more than three times that expected for a metastable wedge of olivine at the core of the slab, and thus appears to be incompatible with an origin by transformational faulting. These large events may instead represent slip on preserved zones of weakness established in oceanic lithosphere at the Earth's surface.     

Role of shallow phase changes in the subduction of oceanic crust

Detailed studies of the seismicity of several subduction zones demonstrate that shallow-dipping thrust zones turn to steeper angles at depths of about 40 kilometers. An increased downward body force resulting from shallow phase changes in subducted oceanic crust may be the cause of this increased dip angle. In addition, the volume reduction associated with phase changes may produce sufficiently large stresses in neighboring rocks to cause the seismicity of the upper Benioff zone.     

Episodic tremor and slip on the Cascadia subduction zone: the chatter of silent slip

We found that repeated slow slip events observed on the deeper interface of the northern Cascadia subduction zone, which were at first thought to be silent, have unique nonearthquake seismic signatures. Tremorlike seismic signals were found to correlate temporally and spatially with slip events identified from crustal motion data spanning the past 6 years. During the period between slips, tremor activity is minor or nonexistent. We call this associated tremor and slip phenomenon episodic tremor and slip (ETS) and propose that ETS activity can be used as a real-time indicator of stress loading of the Cascadia megathrust earthquake zone.     

Water sources for subduction zone volcanism: new experimental constraints

Despite its acknowledged importance, the role of water in the genesis of subduction zone volcanism is poorly understood. Amphibole dehydration in subducting oceanic crust at a single pressure is assumed to generate the water required for melting, but experimental constraints on the reaction are limited, and little attention has been paid to reactions involving other hydrous minerals. Experiments on an oceanic basalt at pressure-temperature conditions relevant to subducting slabs demonstrate that amphibole dehydration is spread over a depth interval of at least 20 kilometers. Reactions involving other hydrous minerals, including mica, epidote, chloritoid, and lawsonite, also release water over a wide depth interval, and in some subduction zones these phases may transport water to deep levels in the mantle.     

Intraslab earthquakes: dehydration of the Cascadia slab

We simultaneously invert travel times of refracted and wide-angle reflected waves for three-dimensional compressional-wave velocity structure, earthquake locations, and reflector geometry in northwest Washington state. The reflector, interpreted to be the crust-mantle boundary (Moho) of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate, separates intraslab earthquakes into two groups, permitting a new understanding of the origins of intraslab earthquakes in Cascadia. Earthquakes up-dip of the Moho's 45-kilometer depth contour occur below the reflector, in the subducted oceanic mantle, consistent with serpentinite dehydration; earthquakes located down-dip occur primarily within the subducted crust, consistent with the basalt-to-eclogite transformation.     

Slow earthquakes coincident with episodic tremors and slow slip events

We report on the very-low-frequency earthquakes occurring in the transition zone of the subducting plate interface along the Nankai subduction zone in southwest Japan. Seismic waves generated by very-low-frequency earthquakes with seismic moment magnitudes of 3.1 to 3.5 predominantly show a long period of about 20 seconds. The seismicity of very-low-frequency earthquakes accompanies and migrates with the activity of deep low-frequency tremors and slow slip events. The coincidence of these three phenomena improves the detection and characterization of slow earthquakes, which are thought to increase the stress on updip megathrust earthquake rupture zones.     

Reconstructing Farallon plate subduction beneath North America back to the Late Cretaceous

Using an inverse mantle convection model that assimilates seismic structure and plate motions, we reconstruct Farallon plate subduction back to 100 million years ago. Models consistent with stratigraphy constrain the depth dependence of mantle viscosity and buoyancy, requiring that the Farallon slab was flat lying in the Late Cretaceous, consistent with geological reconstructions. The simulation predicts that an extensive zone of shallow-dipping subduction extended beyond the flat-lying slab farther east and north by up to 1000 kilometers. The limited region of flat subduction is consistent with the notion that subduction of an oceanic plateau caused the slab to flatten. The results imply that seismic images of the current mantle provide more constraints on past tectonic events than previously recognized.     

High pore fluid pressure may cause silent slip in the Nankai Trough

Silent-slip events have been detected at several subduction zones, but the cause of these events is unknown. Using seismic imaging, we detected a cause of the Tokai silent slip, which occurred at a presumed fault zone of a great earthquake. The seismic image that we obtained shows a zone of high pore fluid pressure in the subducted oceanic crust located down-dip of a subducted ridge. We propose that these structures effectively extend a region of conditionally stable slips and consequently generate the silent slip.