The potential response of global terrestrial carbon storage to a climate change

An analysis is undertaken to examine the potential impacts of a global climate change on patterns of potential terrestrial C storage and resulting fluxes between terrestrial and atmospheric pools. A bioclimatic model relating the current distribution of vegetation to global climate patterns is used to examine the potential impacts of a global climate change on the global distribution of vegetation. Climate change scenarios are based on the predictions of two general circulation model equilibrium simulations for a 2XCO₂ atmosphere. Current estimates of C reserves in the vegetation types and associated soils are then used to calculate changes in potential terrestrial C storage under the two climate change scenarios. Results suggest a potential negative feedback to increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO₂, with the potential for terrestrial C storage increasing under both scenarios. These results represent an equilibrium analysis, assuming the vegetation and soils have tracked the spatial changes in climate patterns. An approach for providing an estimate of the transient response between the two equilibria (i.e., current and 2XCO₂ climates) is presented. The spatial transitions in vegetation predicted by the equilibrium analyses are classified as to the processes controlling the transition (eg., succession, dieback, species immigration). Estimates of the transfer rates related to these processes are then used to estimate the temporal dynamics of the vegetation/soils change and the associated C pools. Results suggest that although the equilibrium analyses show an increased potential for C storage under the climate change, in the transient case the terrestrial surface acts as a source of CO₂ over the first 50 to 100 yrs following climate change.     

The global terrestrial carbon cycle

There is great uncertainty with regard to the future role of the terrestrial biosphere in the global carbon cycle. The uncertainty arises from both an inadequate understanding of current pools and fluxes as well as the potential effects of rising atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ on natural ecosystems. Despite these limitations, a number of studies have estimated current and future patterns of terrestrial carbon storage. Future estimates focus on the effects of a climate change associated with a doubled atmospheric concentration of CO₂. Available models for examining the dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage and the potential role of forest management and landuse practices on carbon conservation and sequestration are discussed.     

The response of terrestrial c storage to climate change: Modeling C dynamics at varying temporal and spatial scales

The response of terrestrial C storage to GCM derived climate change scenarios was investigated over a range of temporal and spatial scales. The potential changes in the global distribution of major ecosystem complexes were examined by combining changes in land cover and corresponding soil type with C storage estimates for each of the ecosystem types. All scenarios consistently showed an overall increase in global carbon storage. On a more regional basis, the potential impacts of climate change on the structure, composition and biomass dynamics of major forest types within the North American Boreal zone were investigated using individual based stand models. Biomass fluxes were found to be dependent on the tree species, site and GCM parameters. A method to simulate corresponding changes in intra- and interannual patterns of CO₂ flux by combining a gap model with an ecosystem model which incorporates photosynthesis, respiration (both canopy and decomposer) and transpiration is demonstrated.     

Agricultural sources and sinks of carbon

Most existing agricultural lands have been in production for sufficiently long periods that C inputs and outputs are nearly balanced and they are neither a major source nor sink of atmospheric C. As population increases, food requirements and the need for more crop land increase accordingly. An annual conversion of previously uncultivated lands up to 1.5 × 10⁷ hectares may be expected. It is this new agricultural land which suffers the greatest losses of C during and subsequent to its conversion. The primary focus for analysis of future C fluxes in agroecosystems needs to be on current changes in land use and management as well as on direct effects of CO₂ and climate change. A valid assessment of C pools and fluxes in agroecosystems requires a global soils data base and comprehensive information on land use and management practices. A comprehensive effort to assemble and analyze this information is urgently needed.     

Temperature regulation of soil carbon dioxide production in the Humid Pampa of Argentina: estimation of carbon fluxes under climate change

Our objectives were to quantify the effect of abiotic factors on CO₂ emissions in the Humid Pampa of Argentina and estimate the potential increase in CO₂ fluxes from this agricultural soil as a consequence of climate change. The experimental site was located at Pergamino (33°56'S, 60°34'W), on a fine, illitic, thermic Typic Argiudoll soil. In situ CO₂ production presented an exponential relationship with air temperature. C liberated annually by mineralization was estimated by integration of monthly respiration measurements and amounted to 8.4 t C ha^-1 year^-1. Future monthly CO₂ fluxes were calculated for the climate change scenario (doubled atmospheric C concentration) using mean monthly temperatures predicted for Pergamino. An increase of around 50% in CO₂ emission from agricultural soils in the Humid Pampa could be expected as a consequence of climate change. The effect of the climate change scenario projected by the global climate models for the Humid Pampa indicates a reduction of the biomass production of cereal crops. Consequently, the predicted decrease in C inputs to soil for this region and an important increase in soil C mineralization would result in marked future C losses.     

Effect of global warming on soil respiration and cumulative carbon release in biocrust-dominated areas in the Tengger Desert,northern China

Journal of Soils and Sediments - Global warming is expected to have profound effects on terrestrial carbon (C) fluxes, consequently influencing future climate. Biocrusts are important sources of C...     

Simulating the carbon flux between the terrestrial environment and the atmosphere

A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO₂ fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a^?1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a^?1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a^?1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a^?1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO₂ concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a^?1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a^?1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a^?1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a^?1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.     

干旱区不同降雨模式对藻结皮覆被区土壤碳释放的影响

[目的]探究干旱区不同降雨模式对藻结皮覆被区土壤碳释放的影响,为精确估算干旱区生态系统土壤碳释放量提供科学依据。[方法]以乌兰布和沙漠为例,通过人工增雨和改变降雨频率来模拟全球气候变化,对藻结皮覆被区土壤碳释放量进行长期野外监测。[结果]降雨能够刺激藻结皮覆被区土壤呼吸速率迅速大幅度提升,并在1 h内达到峰值,12 h左右降至较低水平。但随着干湿交替次数的不断增大,土壤再湿润后所产生的呼吸脉冲逐渐减弱,最后1次降雨与第1次相比土壤呼吸峰值降低了40%～60%。在降雨后16 h累积碳释放量、总碳释放量都随着降雨量的增大而增大,但当降雨量增大到一定程度后,其对土壤碳释放量的促进作用不再明显。就单次降雨而言,低频率、大雨量的降雨事件所引起的碳释放量明显高于高频率、小雨量的降雨事件。但总降雨量一致的情况下,则是高频率的小降雨事件所释放的总碳量最高,其次为低频率的大降雨事件,正常降雨频率下最小。[结论]气候变化所引起的降雨量增加和降雨频率的变化将会增加藻结皮覆被区的碳排放量,在预测碳收支时,也应将藻结皮的碳排放量变化作为考虑因素之一。     

农田土壤有机碳固存的主要影响因子及其稳定机制

农田生态系统作为陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,在陆地生态系统碳循环过程中发挥重要作用。明确影响农田土壤有机截获的主要因素及土壤固碳的稳定机制,有助于控制和加强农田土壤碳库的固碳潜力,以及正确评价农业生产对全球气候变化的影响。因此,本文综合论述了影响农田土壤碳含量的自然和人为因素,详细阐述了土壤碳固定的物理、化学和生物稳定机制。并总结了已有研究的不足,对今后土壤固碳研究中的热点问题进行了展望。认为从土壤微生物学角度出发,深入研究微生物在土壤有机碳循环中的作用机制,并将地上部和地下部生态系统联系起来探讨土壤碳素稳定性机制更具有重要的意义。     

Land-use change and climate

Human activities in Australia and world-wide cause, or contribute to, desertification, deforestation, salinization and soil erosion, and also to reforestation, irrigation and landscape ‘management’. Human-induced land-use changes impact on the Earth's climate both locally and on a larger scale, right up to disturbance of the general circulation and hence the global climate. People have become a major environmental agent acting on the future climate through land-use change, particularly deforestation (and reforestation), desertification (which often includes overgrazing and excessive exploitation of vegetation), agricultural expansion, and soil erosion and degradation. The largest impact of land-use change on the future climate seems likely to be as a result of enhanced greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, rapidly increasing populations, especially in the tropics, demand additional food, water for drinking and cleaning, and materials for the construction of shelters—all of which depend upon sustaining a reasonable climate. Climate and human land-use requirements are linked, but the closeness of that link varies from intimate dependency to callous disdain. In this paper, the impacts of human-induced land-use changes on future climate are explored in the context of the projections of global climate models.     

VEGETATION RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING: THE ROLE OF HYSTERESIS EFFECT

A new approach is proposed for the evaluation of vegetation equilibrium response to global warming. The approach considers the dependence of the position of biome boundaries as significantly multi-valued function of climatic conditions; the reason for the multiplicity may be partly due to capacity of vegetation to change its environment. This result in hysteresis manifestations (threshold and irreversibility effects) in response to climate change. Matthews' global vegetation data set and IIASA climatic data base were used to reconstruct the domains of different biomes in a space of climatic factors (biotemperature and average precipitation). Based on the overlap of these domains, the maps of biomes' potential extent are calculated for present climate and for two scenarios of global warming (GISS and GFDL). These results imply a significant role for hysteresis phenomena in the global vegetation pattern. Maps of vegetation changes under two climate scenarios calculated with the help of a new algorithm to account for hysteresis indicate much less change than equivalent maps obtained by other equilibrium approaches under the two climate change scenarios. Changes are predicted for 20% of terrestrial area. A relatively small increase of forest and decrease of nonforest vegetation area predicted by both scenarios.     

Interactions between physical and biotic factors influence CO2 flux in Antarctic dry valley soils

Soil carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux is an integrative measure of ecosystem functioning representing both biotic and physical controls over carbon (C) balance. In the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica, soil CO₂ fluxes (approximately −0.1-0.15 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹) are generally low, and negative fluxes (uptake of CO₂) are sometimes observed. A combination of biological respiration and physical mechanisms, driven by temperature and mediated by soil moisture and mineralogy, determine CO₂ flux and, therefore, soil organic C balance. The physical factors important to CO₂ flux are being altered with climate variability in many ecosystems including arid forms such as the Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems, making it critical to understand how climate factors interact with biotic drivers to control soil CO₂ fluxes and C balances. We measured soil CO₂ flux in experimental field manipulations, microcosm incubations and across natural environmental gradients of soil moisture to estimate biotic soil respiration and abiotic sources of CO₂ flux in soils over a range of physical and biotic conditions. We determined that temperature fluctuations were the most important factor influencing diel variation in CO₂ flux. Variation within these diel CO₂ cycles was explained by differences in soil moisture. Increased temperature (as opposed to temperature fluctuations) had little or no effect on CO₂ flux if moisture was not also increased. We conclude that CO₂ flux in dry valley soils is driven primarily by physical factors such as soil temperature and moisture, indicating that future climate change may alter the dry valley soil C cycle. Negative CO₂ fluxes in arid soils have recently been identified as potential net C sinks. We demonstrate the potential for arid polar soils to take up CO₂, driven largely by abiotic factors associated with climate change. The low levels of CO₂ absorption into soils we observed may not constitute a significant sink of atmospheric CO₂, but will influence the interpretation of CO₂ flux for the dry valley soil C cycle and possibly other arid environments where biotic controls over C cycling are secondary to physical drivers.     

A review of applications of model–data fusion to studies of terrestrial carbon fluxes at different scales

Model–data fusion is defined as matching model prediction and observations by varying model parameters or states using statistical estimation. In this paper, we review the history of applications of various model–data fusion techniques in studies of terrestrial carbon fluxes in two approaches: top-down approaches that use measurements of global CO₂ concentration and sometimes other atmospheric constituents to infer carbon fluxes from the land surface, and bottom-up approaches that estimate carbon fluxes using process-based models. We consider applications of model–data fusion in flux estimation, parameter estimation, model error analysis, experimental design and forecasting. Significant progress has been made by systematically studying the discrepancies between the predictions by different models and observations. As a result, some major controversies in global carbon cycle studies have been resolved, robust estimates of continental and global carbon fluxes over the last two decades have been obtained, and major deficiencies in the atmospheric models for tracer transport have been identified. In the bottom-up approaches, various optimization techniques have been used for a range of process-based models. Model–data fusion techniques have been successfully used to improve model predictions, and quantify the information content of carbon flux measurements and identify what other measurements are needed to further constrain model predictions. However, we found that very few studies in both top-down and bottom-up approaches have quantified the errors in the observations, model parameters and model structure systematically and consistently. We therefore suggest that future research will focus on developing an integrated Bayesian framework to study both model and measurement errors systematically.     

Carbon emission flux and storage in the degraded peatlands of the Zoige alpine area in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

The Zoige alpine peatlands cover approximately 4,605 km² of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and are considered to constitute the largest plateau peatland on the Eurasian continent. However, the Zoige alpine peatlands are undergoing major degradation because of human activities and climate change, which would cause uncertainty in the budget of greenhouse gases (CH₄ and CO₂) and carbon (C) storage in global peatlands. This study simultaneously investigates the CH₄ and CO₂ emission fluxes and C storage at three typical sites with respect to the peatland degradation gradient: peatland, wet meadow and dry meadow. Results show that peatland degradation would increase the CO₂ emission and decrease the CH₄ emission. Moreover, the average C emission fluxes were 66.05, 165.78 and 326.56 mg C m^?2 hr^?1 for the peatland, wet meadow and dry meadow, respectively. The C storage of the vegetation does not considerably differ among the three sampling sites. However, when compared with the peatland (1,088.17 t C ha^?1), the soil organic C storage decreases by 420 and 570 t C ha^?1 in case of wet and dry meadows, respectively. Although the C storage in the degraded peatlands decreases considerably, it can still represent a large capacity of C sink. Therefore, the degraded peatlands in the Zoige alpine area must be protected and restored to mitigate regional climate change.     

How do persistent organic pollutants be coupled with biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nutrients in terrestrial ecosystems under global climate change?

Purpose  

Global climate change (GCC), especially global warming, has affected the material cycling (e.g., carbon, nutrients, and organic chemicals) and the energy flows of terrestrial ecosystems. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were regarded as anthropogenic organic carbon (OC) source, and be coupled with the natural carbon (C) and nutrient biogeochemical cycling in ecosystems. The objective of this work was to review the current literature and explore potential coupling processes and mechanisms between POPs and biogeochemical cycles of C and nutrients in terrestrial ecosystems induced by global warming.     

Aspects of the interaction between vegetation and soil under global change

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to a world undergoing a change in atmospheric CO₂ concentration presents a formidable challenge to terrestrial ecosystem scientists. Strong relationships among climate, atmosphere, soils and biota at many different temporal and spatial scales make the understanding and prediction of changes in net ecosystem production (NEP) at a global scale difficult. Global C cycle models have implicitly attempted to account for some of this complexity by adapting lower pool sizes and smaller flux rates representing large regions and long temporal averages than values appropriate for a small area. However, it is becoming increasingly evident that terrestrial ecosystems may be experiencing a strong transient forcing as a result of increasing levels of atmospheric CO₂ that will require a finer temporal and spatial representation of terrestrial systems than the parameters for current global C cycle models allow. To adequately represent terrestrial systems in the global C cycle it is necessary to explicitly model the response of terrestrial systems to primary environmental factors. While considerable progress has been made experimentally and conceptually in aspects of photosynthetic responses, and gross and net primary production, the application of this understanding to NEP at individual sites is not well developed. This is an essential step in determining effects of plant physiological responses on the global C cycle. We use a forest stand succession model to explore the effects of several possible plant responses to elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration. These simulations show that ecosystem C storage can be increased by increases in individual tree growth rate, reduced transpiration, or increases in fine root production commensurate with experimental observations.     

凋落物对土壤呼吸的贡献研究进展

土壤呼吸是土壤碳库输出的主要途径,凋落物是影响土壤呼吸的重要因素。明确凋落物对土壤呼吸的贡献,有助于准确评估植物-土壤-大气三个碳库之间的碳收支过程。本文综述了近年来国内外有关凋落物对土壤呼吸贡献的研究成果,阐明了凋落物对土壤呼吸的贡献机理,讨论了凋落物对土壤呼吸贡献率及其存在的时空分异特征,在此基础上,对该领域研究前景进行了展望。     

Climate change in Asia: A review of the vulnerability and adaptation of crop production

A number of studies have provided quantitative assessments of the potential climate change impacts on crop production in Asia. Estimates take into account (a) uncertainty in the level of climate change expected, using a range of climate change scenarios; (b) physiological effects of carbon dioxide on the crops; and (c) different adaptive responses. In all cases, the effects of climate change induced by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide depended on the counteracting effects among higher daily evapotranspiration rates, shortening of crop growth duration, and changes in precipitation patterns, as well as the effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and water-use efficiency. Although results varied depending on the geographical locations of the regions tested, the production of rice (the main food crop in the region) generally did not benefit from climate change. In South and Southeast Asia, there is concern about how climate change may affect El Niño/Southern Oscillation events, since these play a key role in determining agricultural production. Furthermore, problems arising from variability of water availability and soil degradation are currently major challenges to agriculture in the region. These problems may be exacerbated in the future if global climate change projections are realized. Many studies have considered strategies for improving agricultural management, based on the optimization of crop management decisions. Climate change analyses could be further strengthened by economic studies that integrate the potential use of natural resources across sectors.     

Projected large-scale range reductions of northern-boreal land bird species due to climate change

Climate change is projected to be particularly strong in the northern latitudes. Thus, boreal or arctic species are especially susceptible to the effects of climate warming. In this work we forecasted changes in the distributions of 27 northern land bird species in the 21st century, based on predicted rates of climate change. We used climate and bird atlas data of Finland and northern Norway from 1971-1990 to establish bioclimatic envelope models for each species. Next, these models were applied to two climate scenarios (A2 and B1) from the general circulation model HadCM3 to forecast potential future distributions of the study species over a larger area also covering parts of nearby Sweden and Russia. This area stretches through the boreal and continental arctic zone in northern Europe. In the A2 scenario the predicted global change in mean temperature is 3.8 °C by 2100 and in the B1 scenario 2.0 °C. Our results suggest that most of the northern land bird species will lose most of their climatic space by 2080 both in the more severe (A2, average predicted range decline: -83.6%) and in the less severe scenario (B1, average change: -73.6%). A large proportion (over two thirds) of the species considered here is thus susceptible to major range contractions in this geographical region. These climate change-induced threats are of importance because the Arctic Ocean represents a natural barrier for northward movement of species. To reduce the negative effects of climate change on the northern species, relatively large areas of continuous habitats in a connected reserve network should be preserved.     

Tropical forests: Their past,present, and potential future role in the terrestrial carbon budget

In this paper we review results of research to summarize the state-of-knowledge of the past, present, and potential future roles of tropical forests in the global C cycle. In the pre-industrial period (ca. 1850), the flux from changes in tropical land use amounted to a small C source of about 0.06 Pg yr^?1. By 1990, the C source had increased to 1.7 ± 0.5 Pg yr^?1. The C pools in forest vegetation and soils in 1990 was estimated to be 159 Pg and 216 Pg, respectively. No concrete evidence is available for predicting how tropical forest ecosystems are likely to respond to CO₂ enrichment and/or climate change. However, C sources from continuing deforestation are likely to overwhelm any change in C fluxes unless land management efforts become more aggressive. Future changes in land use under a “business as usual” scenario could release 41–77 Pg C over the next 60 yr. Carbon fluxes from losses in tropical forests may be lessened by aggressively pursued agricultural and forestry measures. These measures could reduce the magnitude of the tropical C source by 50 Pg by the year 2050. Policies to mitigate C losses must be multiple and concurrent, including reform of forestry, land tenure, and agricultural policies, forest protection, promotion of on-farm forestry, and establishment of plantations on non-forested lands. Policies should support improved agricultural productivity, especially replacing non-traditional slash-and-burn agriculture with more sustainable and appropriate approaches.