Analyses of Chongqing''s Complex Energy Consumption

This paper and studied the energy economy in the light of the system theory and method. An energy input-output table has been compiled and an energy input-output model has been set up to analyse in a broad sense the energy consumption in Chongqing with a new generalized method.     

Sources of Output Change in the U.S. Economy

Output changes in the U.S. economy from 1972 to 1977 are analyzed using a 477-sector input-output framework. The empirical model is based on benchmark data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Commodity output changes are attributed to technical change, import substitution, changes in domestic final demand, and changes in export demand. Special attention is given to the importance of international trade and the patterns of change observed in rapidly growing and declining sectors. The results indicate that 71 percent of the sectors lost domestic market share to imports, but on balance international trade contributed to positive output change through increased exports. Technology changes became increasingly important in sectors of the economy experiencing either rapid growth or decline. Conversely, final demand, exports, and import substitution generally appeared to be most important in the slowly changing sectors. These findings confirm and expand on earlier work that indicated a dominant role for technology changes in explaining output changes in emerging and declining industries.     

北京市蔬菜生产效率分析——基于地区比较视角

投入产出效率的提高是推动当前北京市蔬菜产业发展的重要因素,也是实现农业现代化的基础。在对北京市和全国平均的蔬菜主栽品种投入产出情况进行对比分析的基础上,运用DEA（数据包络分析法）测算出2010年北京市和全国其他地区设施和露地蔬菜生产的技术效率和环境效率,并基于量化分析结果,从北京与全国其他地区比较的视角,分析北京市蔬菜生产效率情况。得出的主要研究结论是：北京市设施蔬菜生产无论是投入产出还是技术效率、环境效率与全国其他地区相比都具有一定的比较优势,而露地蔬菜生产在这3个方面皆不具有比较优势;从规模报酬来看,北京市设施蔬菜生产处于规模报酬递增的阶段,而露地蔬菜生产则处于递减阶段。最后提出了提高北京市蔬菜产业技术效率的对策及建议。     

An Interregional Perspective on Aggregation Bias and Information Loss in Input-output Analysis

This paper extends previous theorems concerning aggregation bias in single-region and national input-output models to interregional input-output (IRIO) models. The results indicate that the conditions for zero aggregation bias are more stringent in input-output models involving multiple regions. In addition, the paper derives the relationship between the information content of IRIO and national input-output accounts. The results confirm the conventional wisdom that the information content of multiple region input-output models of the U.S. economy contain more information than national input-output models.     

湖南农业生态系统能值结构功能效率分析

为了探究湖南农业生态系统的能值投入产出结构功能与效率,揭示该区域人与自然资源和环境的相互关系,以能值理论为研究方法,以湖南农业2009年投入产出数据为依据,对湖南农业生态系统的能值结构、功能和效率进行实证分析。结果表明：（1）系统结构特点：湖南农业仍具有传统农业的生产特点,对劳动力、畜力的依赖性较大。工业辅助能值中,化肥对系统的贡献率最高,农业机械化水平低。工业辅助能值可更新比偏低,农业绿色能源的开发潜力和前景较大。系统产品定价偏低,忽视了自然资源和环境对农业生产的贡献,也反映出湖南农业产业链条相对短,产品附加值较低的特性。系统内部种植业和畜牧业的能值产出占绝对优势比例且其市场定价相对于林业和渔业偏低。（2）功能：该系统环境负载率虽不高,但是人口承受力超载。系统可持续发展指数为5.96,表明该系统富有活力和发展潜力,也意味着该系统经济并非常不发达、自然资源和环境的压力不是很大。（3）效率：该系统2009年的能值投入产出率略低于全国水平,表现出较明显的粗放型经济特点。因此,控制人口过快增长,转移剩余劳动力,进一步调整农业产业结构和产品结构,加强农业技术开发和利用,延长产业链,提高农业机械化和现代化水平是当前湖南农业的基本政策取向。     

Incorporating Sectoral Structure into Shift–Share Analysis

The objective of this article is to present a new way to incorporate the sectoral dimension within the components of regional growth provided by the traditional shift–share analysis. The new methodology elaborates the way that the dynamics of a specific sector in a region are influenced by the performance of other sectors, the latter decomposed between national, structural, and differential effects. To illustrate this extension of the shift–share method, an application is provided using data for the Spanish region of Extremadura for the period 1990–2004. The results highlight how these new components can shed new insights into the analysis of sectoral and regional economic growth processes.     

Regional and sectorial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sergipe,Brazil

This paper aims at estimating the regional and sectoral impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic in the state of Sergipe, Brazil in 2020. We use an input-output model with partial hypothetical extraction. The main results suggest a significant reduction in economic activity in the state, particularly in the Transport and Industry sectors. On the other hand, the Real estate and Food and Accommodation sectors have a greater capacity for recovery with the introduction of an emergency aid program. The municipalities with the largest absolute impact on gross domestic product are Aracaju, Canindé de São Francisco and Nossa Senhora do Socorro, two of them located in the metropolitan area of Aracaju.     

Regional Variations of Firm Births,Deaths and Growth Patterns in the UK, 1980–1991

One of the debates around new firm formation across sub‐national territories focuses on whether regional differences in industrial structure are more important influences than regional differences in individual industry performance. The present research, using Value Added Tax (VAT) registration data, attempts to make a contribution to this debate in the United Kingdom (UK) context using a shift‐share covariance model. Firm de‐registrations and, as a consequence, net changes in firm stocks are also analyzed with similar questions in mind. The findings show that although the effects of industrial mix are significant across most regions, in several key regional contexts the industrial competitive effect dominates. The issue of the role of regional industrial concentration forms a second major theme of this paper. This basically involves a questioning as to whether concentration is a positive or negative force for new firm formation. The results of this research indicate that industrial concentration, measured through localization, is more important for firm deaths than for firm births (although significant for both), but not particularly relevant to the understanding of the net outcome of entry and exit processes. In the UK, regions with higher levels of industry concentration seem to be associated overall with relatively lower levels of both firm births and deaths.     

A Note on Localization and Specialization

ABSTRACT Analysts and policy makers frequently measure industrial localization and regional specialization. However, they rarely examine the nation's full array of industries or regions. So local indices, appropriate for specific industries or selected regions, are typically estimated. But in some instances global indices would be preferable in order to assess the wider features of the entire space‐economy. This article constructs global indices from the local indices already used in assessing localization and specialization. Global localization and global specialization are shown to be identical when all local indices use the dissimilarity logic. Two‐digit standard industry codes manufacturing data, taken from the U.S. during 1958–1995, are used to illustrate the results. The values of these global coefficients, like their local constituents, are shown to vary with geographic scale. The discussion addresses spatial distributions (evenness) but not geographic arrangements (clustering).     

Integrating Firm Dynamics into the Shift‐Share Framework

ABSTRACT This article integrates firm birth and death data into a shift‐share analysis framework. The proposed methodology can be used when data availability does not allow for the direct association of employment changes to business demographics at the regional level. It may be also used as an exploratory step before any explanatory econometric work is undertaken as a means of identifying classes of potential control variables. Applying the method to Greek data suggests that firm‐size heterogeneity should not be ignored, that local conditions matter more than regional economic structure, and that the latter are asymmetrical across sectors when it comes to the effects of business demographics on regional employment or output growth.     

Continuity and Change in an Old Industrial Region

Analysts have debated the extent to which recent economic changes represent a continuation of earlier patterns or a fundamental shift to a new industrial order. We trace and extend the spatial implications of this debate for a mature industrial region, the Ohio River Valley, part of the American Manufacturing Belt, for the 1980-90 period. The paper builds on recent research arguing that such regions had a diverse, rather than homogeneous, space-economy. Empirical findings clearly demonstrate diversity of economic structures, sectorally and spatially, emphasizing both continuity and change in an old industrial region, and the totality of economic activity rather than specific sectors identified with the rise or transformation of industrial capitalism. In terms of change, aggregate trends follow national ones, but do not wash evenly over the Ohio River Valley. Nor do they mirror, when considered at a sub-regional scale, patterns indicated by de-industrialization and post-Fordist transition frameworks. Findings provide implications for elaborating or augmenting these perspectives, and types of research needed to accomplish the task.     

国际农产品价格波动对中国宏观经济影响效应研究-基于CGE模型

摘要：为定量把握进口农产品价格波动对中国宏观经济各个指标及各行业的影响效应,本文基于2007年的投入产出表编制社会核算矩阵,建立多部门的CGE模型,在整个宏观经济的背景下量化分析进口农产品价格冲击对于中国经济的影响。研究表明：进口农产品价格上涨对宏观经济有一定的负效应,对实际GDP的影响效应非常小,且对国民经济各行业产生了紧缩作用。     

对作物区域试验中参试品种产量统计方法问题的探讨

品种区域试验是作物品种评价、布局和推广的依据。在国家谷子品种区域试验中,由于试点间地力或管理水平不同,各试点的产量水平差别很大,往往存在一点或少数试点产量水平明显高于或低于其他试点,这些试点的产量数据在汇总时占的份额过高,导致这些试点结果对整体试验结果影响过大,甚至基本可以决定整体试验结果的情况。因而,如何使试验结果比较客观、准确地反映参试品种的实际产量水平,一直是制约区域试验工作和品种审定工作的难题。针对这一问题,作者在多年从事国家谷子品种区域试验的实践中,总结出用各承试点的理论产量代替实际产量进行汇总,即将各承试点对照的产量进行平均,然后,以这一数据为基础,依据参试品种在各承试点较对照增减产的比例,计算它们在相应试点的理论产量,将各承试点的产量调整到同一水平,剔除地力等因素对产量的影响。经验证,该方法统计的参试品种较对照增减产比例与各试点增减产比例的平均数基本一致,基本反映了参试品种的实际产量水平。取得了较好的效果,对区试资料的汇总工作具有较大参考意义。     

紫蓬山国家森林公园生态旅游业的SWOT分析

文章采用SWOT分析法较为详细地分析了紫蓬山国家森林公园发展生态旅游业的优势、弱势、机遇和威胁,包括区位优势、动植物资源优势、气候优势和开发潜力等优势,生态旅游的兴起、生态工程的实施,旅游专业人才缺乏、管理和服务滞后等因素;并以此为基础,进一步提出了相应的发展建议,主要有开发与保护并重、适当开发森林生态旅游资源、开发生态旅游产品、加强宣传营销工作、积极进行人才的培训与引进、努力提高管理水平和服务水平以及完善景区的旅游基础设施建设等。     

Regional Differences in the Competitive Characteristics of U.S. Machine Tool Companies

The U.S. machine tool (MT) sector has undergone substantial restructuring over the past three decades. Despite signs of a commercial rebound in recent years, however, a number of critical issues remain for this industry. Not all firms share these concerns, in that differences exist between producers located in the core manufacturing belt and those located elsewhere. This paper examines the characteristics, competitive problems, and markets of firms located in these two regions. Survey data from a sample of 104 machine tool companies reveal that significant core–periphery differences exist with regard to firm–specific difficulties and markets served. The data also show that firms in the periphery have been growing significantly faster than firms in the core. The paper concludes with a discussion of the likely reasons for regional variability in the characteristics of firms in this industry. Directions for future research are also suggested, notably with regard to the interplay between national regulatory conditions and the competitive performance of MT firms.     

Who leads regional industrial dynamics? “New industry creators” in Chinese regions

Recent evolutionary economic geography studies have argued that regional diversification emerges as a path‐dependent process, as regions often branch into industries that are related to its industrial structure. However, it is less clear who are creating new industries and under what regional conditions. This research seeks to fill this gap and identify “new industry creators” in regional industrial diversification. We differentiate two types of new industry formation—path‐breaking and path‐dependent—and examine whether some new industry creators are more path‐breaking than others, by incorporating two factors that have been largely overlooked in recent literature on technological relatedness—firm heterogeneity and regional institutions. Based on a firm‐level data set of China’s manufacturing industries, this paper shows that path‐breaking and path‐dependence coexist. Empirical results confirm that firm heterogeneity and regional institutions not only affect the firms’ capabilities in creating new industries, but also encourage/discourage firms to be adventurous and path‐breaking. This research implies that lagging regions can catch up with developed regions by coordinating regional resources and adjusting local institutional arrangements to attract more path‐breaking firms.     

基于能值分析的福建省农用地可持续利用态势研究

为了对近十年来福建省农地的可持续利用情况进行综合分析,运用能值理论构建了福建省农用地可持续利用评价指数,将农用地系统中储存和流动的不同种类的能量转化为同一标准——能值,计算福建省近十年农用地总能值投入产出比、工业能值投入产出比、农用地环境负载指数,土地可持续利用指数5个农用地可持续利用态势的指标数值,并利用上述5个指数对福建省近十年来农用地的可持续性进行判定。结果表明：福建省农用地总能值投入产出比变化明显并呈下降态势,与其他地区相比,福建省的农用地的能值利用率相对较高。工业能值投入产出比数值逐年减小,呈下降趋势,农用地对工业能值投入量的依赖程度越来越高。环境负载指数呈波动性上升特点,农用地环境压力越来越大。综合表明农用地开发程度越来越大,系统可持续性和稳定性有所下降。     

Spatial and temporal uncertainty of crop yield aggregations

The aggregation of simulated gridded crop yields to national or regional scale requires information on temporal and spatial patterns of crop-specific harvested areas. This analysis estimates the uncertainty of simulated gridded yield time series related to the aggregation with four different harvested area data sets. We compare aggregated yield time series from the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison project for four crop types from 14 models at global, national, and regional scale to determine aggregation-driven differences in mean yields and temporal patterns as measures of uncertainty.The quantity and spatial patterns of harvested areas differ for individual crops among the four data sets applied for the aggregation. Also simulated spatial yield patterns differ among the 14 models. These differences in harvested areas and simulated yield patterns lead to differences in aggregated productivity estimates, both in mean yield and in the temporal dynamics.Among the four investigated crops, wheat yield (17% relative difference) is most affected by the uncertainty introduced by the aggregation at the global scale. The correlation of temporal patterns of global aggregated yield time series can be as low as for soybean (r = 0.28).For the majority of countries, mean relative differences of nationally aggregated yields account for 10% or less. The spatial and temporal difference can be substantial higher for individual countries. Of the top-10 crop producers, aggregated national multi-annual mean relative difference of yields can be up to 67% (maize, South Africa), 43% (wheat, Pakistan), 51% (rice, Japan), and 427% (soybean, Bolivia). Correlations of differently aggregated yield time series can be as low as r = 0.56 (maize, India), r = 0.05 (wheat, Russia), r = 0.13 (rice, Vietnam), and r = −0.01 (soybean, Uruguay). The aggregation to sub-national scale in comparison to country scale shows that spatial uncertainties can cancel out in countries with large harvested areas per crop type. We conclude that the aggregation uncertainty can be substantial for crop productivity and production estimations in the context of food security, impact assessment, and model evaluation exercises.     

NBA sweet spots: Distance‐based impacts on establishment‐level sales

This paper examines distance‐based effects of the introduction of a National Basketball Association (NBA) team on establishment‐level sales. Using a unique micro dataset with precise geographic location information and industry detail, we apply spatio‐temporal estimation strategies following Harger et al. and Ahlfeldt and Kavetsos. We build on the literature by focusing on sales activity, a broad measure of economic activity, for industries related to the NBA‐product. Our application considers the relocation of the NBA’s Seattle franchise (Supersonics) to Oklahoma City (Thunder). The results reveal spatially differentiated impacts that would be obscured using data aggregated over space or industry. Specifically, food establishments exhibit increased sales and entertainment establishments exhibit decreased sales relative to establishments in the outer most ring of the study area.     

用GGE双标图分析燕麦区域试验品系产量稳定性及试点代表性

为准确评价燕麦品系的稳产性和适应性,采用GGE双标图对2006—2008年国家燕麦区域试验10个试点的12个裸燕麦品系及6个参试地点的6个皮燕麦品系试验数据进行分析。结果显示,坝莜8号、坝莜3号和张燕2号属于高产、稳产性较好的品系;科燕1号和保罗具有特殊适应性,在局部地区有推广价值。在10个裸燕麦试点中,河北张北最具有代表性,吉林白城、新疆乌鲁木齐、河北崇礼、宁夏固原和内蒙古武川的鉴别力较好,而甘肃会宁和山西右玉的鉴别力较差。在6个皮燕麦试点中,内蒙古武川最具有代表性,青海西宁的鉴别力最好,河北张北的鉴别力较差。本研究为客观评价燕麦参试品系的高产性及稳产性提供了简便、有效的分析手段,也为国家燕麦品种鉴定与推广提供了依据。