马铃薯晚疫病CARAH预警模型在我国的应用及评价

CARAH预警模型引入我国后,在马铃薯晚疫病监测预警中发挥了重要作用。本文对目前各地CARAH模型的应用情况进行了综合分析,总结了模型在马铃薯晚疫病中心病株出现时间预测、发生程度风险评估、防治效果等方面的作用,分析了品种抗性、区域气候特征等因素对模型应用的影响,提出了进一步研究和完善建议。     

Integrated control of potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) in Switzerland: concept and first results1

A project has been undertaken in Switzerland to reduce the number of applications of fungicides to potato by a reduction of late blight incidence and disease pressure as well as by providing reliable and precise spraying recommendations against blight. We try to achieve this aim by combining different elements: (1) to delay and to impede disease progress, it is planned to promote less susceptible potato cultivars and to reduce the number of primary foci by advising seed potato growers to protect their crops more carefully; (2) the data of about 20 weather stations are utilized to test different forecasting systems; (3) these (theoretical) indications on the appearance of the disease are complemented by extensive monitoring of real late blight occurrence in the field; (4) the late blight susceptibility of all cultivars grown in Switzerland is being assessed by special trials. From the combination of all this information, spraying recommendations will be formulated according to regions and cultivars.     

中国马铃薯晚疫病监测预警系统“China-blight”的组建及运行

马铃薯晚疫病是严重威胁世界马铃薯生产和粮食安全的重要病害之一,同时也是植物病害中流行速度最快的病害之一。由于品种多不抗病,目前国内外主要依靠化学防治控制该病害。为了提高用药的时效性,将信息技术与植物病害流行学原理相结合,设计并组建了中国马铃薯晚疫病监测预警系统"China-blight"(www.china-blight.net)。该系统由"中国晚疫病实时分布"、"未来48小时不同区域晚疫病菌侵染危险性预测"和"晚疫病化学防治决策支持系统"等子系统构成,此外还包括"晚疫病防治方法"、"品种抗病性"、"化学药剂库"、"其他病虫害"、"问题与经验交流"和"用户田间管理电子档案"等知识信息与服务功能。通过对2009年我国北方马铃薯一作区6-7月份病害侵染时段出现次数与晚疫病实际发生情况进行比较,预测信息与病害实际发生程度相符,该系统可以用于对马铃薯晚疫病田间防治的指导。     

Fire blight of pears in Israel: infection, prevalence, intensity and efficacy of management actions

The pear production area in Israel is 1500 ha, most of which(ca 1200 ha) is located in the northern part of the country. Fire blight (caused by the bacteriumErwinia amylovora (Burrill) Winslowet al.) was first observed in Israel in that region (in 1985) and the disease has prevailed there since then. In a comprehensive survey conducted in Israel in 1996–1999, data were collected and observations were made yearly in one-third to one-half of the pear production area. The aim was to document the prevalence and intensity of fire blight in commercial orchards and to use the data to evaluate the efficacy of management measures employed for its suppression. Regionwise, a severe fire blight epidemic developed in 1996, moderate epidemics developed in 1998 and 1999, and a mild epidemic developed in 1997. The intensity of fire blight in the preceding season in a specific orchard was more influential on current season severity in a season with a mild epidemic than in a season with a moderate epidemic. Analysis of disease onset records and weather data revealed that only a few (1– 3) infection episodes occurred in individual orchards each year. Comparison of fire blight intensity in orchard-plots treated before green tip with copper hydroxide with nontreated plots revealed that the treatment had no effect on disease intensity during bloom. The efficacy of bactericide sprays applied during bloom was not related to the number of sprays applied but to the timing of spraying. Adequate control was achieved in orchard-plots sprayed soon before or after the occurrence of infection episodes. Contribution no. 508/00 from the Inst. of Plant Protection, ARO, Bet Dagan, Israel.     

STREP: a brown‐spot disease predictor for scheduling fungicide sprays against Stemphylium vesicarium on pear*

Brown spot of pear (Pyrus communis) caused by Stemphylium vesicarium is an important disease in fruit‐growing areas of Europe. The control of brown spot is based on protectant sprays of fungicide applied, at 7‐ to 15‐day intervals depending on the type of fungicide, from fruit set to preharvest regardless of the risk of infection. A forecasting model has been developed and can be used for timing the fungicide applications and to eliminate unnecessary sprays. The model quantifies the relationship between wetness duration and temperature in disease severity and can be used as a tool for the prediction of disease infection periods. The capacity of risk prediction was validated over 2 years. The fungicide sprays scheduled by the STREP forecaster were evaluated in commercial orchards during 3 years in different climatic areas in Spain and Italy. The results showed consistently that use of the STREP model minimized the number of fungicide sprays compared with a protectant schedule, but without decreasing the quality of commercial disease control. The susceptibility of selected European pear cultivars to infection by S. vesicarium and the influence of fruit age were also determined. The implementation of the model in warning stations will require the combination of predictions by the STREP model, the level of inoculum and the sensitivity of phenological stage and pear cultivar.     

北京市农作物重大病虫害远程预警信息系统的构建及应用

从北京市植保站病虫害监测预警体系内各区(县)的数据采集人员、市里的数据分析人员和数据发布人员的业务流和信息流出发,用Asp+Oracle研制开发了北京市农作物重大病虫害预警信息系统。系统以预警预测为目标,数据采集为基础,根据建立的预测模型及用户提交的病虫害情况和气象预报信息,实时监测预报北京市重大病虫害发生为害情况,预报结果以5级预警色地图和文字信息提供给用户。最终实现测报资料采集规范化、信息传递网络化和预报结果可视化。     

Real‐time PCR detection of Erwinia amylovora on blossoms correlates with subsequent fire blight incidence

Fire blight is the most devastating bacterial disease of rosaceous plants. Forecasting fire blight infections is important to allow for countermeasures that reduce economic damage in pome fruit production. Current computerized forecasting models are solely based on physical factors such as temperature and moisture, but not on the actual presence of the pathogen Erwinia amylovora. Although the inoculum concentration is considered to be crucial for infection and disease outbreak, most current approaches used for identification of fire blight inoculum including morphological, biochemical, serological, and DNA‐based methods are nonquantitative. Based on a real‐time PCR approach previously published, an improved protocol to be used directly on whole bacteria in the field is described. The method allows for early detection and quantification of the pathogen prior to the occurrence of first symptoms. There is a clear correlation between bacterial abundance and subsequent disease development. However, in some cases, no disease symptoms could be observed despite a pathogen load of up to 3·4 × 10⁶ cells per blossom. Integration of the amount of pathogen detected into refined prediction algorithms may allow for the improvement of applied forecasting models, finally permitting a better abatement of fire blight.     

Estimating the global severity of potato late blight with GIS-linked disease forecast models

Global severity of potato late blight was estimated by linking two disease forecast models, Blitecast and Simcast, to a climate data base in a geographic information system (GIS). The disease forecast models indirectly estimate late blight severity by determining how many sprays are needed during a growing season as a function of the weather. Global zonation of estimated late blight severity was similar for both forecast models, but Blitecast generally predicted a lower number of sprays. With both forecast models, there were strong differences between potato production zones. Zones of high late blight severity include the tropical highlands, western Europe, the east coast of Canada and northern USA, south-eastern Brazil and central-southern China. Major production zones with a low late blight severity include the western plains in India, where irrigated potato is produced in the cool dry season, north-central China, and the north-western USA. Using a global GIS data base of potato production, the average number of sprays was calculated by country. These averages were compared with estimates of current fungicide use. The results using Blitecast and Simcast were correlated but only Blitecast estimates correlated with observed data for developed countries. The estimated number of sprays, whether from Blitecast or Simcast, did not correlate with the observed number of sprays in developing countries, and in a number of developing countries the predicted optimal number of sprays was much higher than the actual number observed. In these countries, increased access to host resistance and fungicides could have a strong economic impact.     

土壤熏蒸与水肥菌/药一体化技术联用防控设施番茄病害

为了减少设施番茄生产中农药化肥的使用,集成了土壤熏蒸及水肥菌/药一体化技术,并在湖北十堰开展了设施番茄病害的综合防控试验示范。试验设置3个处理,分别为CK(不做土壤熏蒸+水肥药常规化管理)、T1(土壤熏蒸+水肥药常规化管理)、T2(土壤熏蒸+水肥药一体化管理)。田间试验结果表明:采用土壤熏蒸可使番茄的根结线虫病降低70.7%~75.0%,灰霉病、早疫病和青枯病的综合发病率降低33.0%~63.7%,产量增加25.0%左右;土壤熏蒸结合水肥菌/药一体化技术可使番茄的根结线虫病降低 82.7%~85.1%,灰霉病、早疫病和青枯病的综合发病率降低70.2%~74.0%,产量增加35.9%~41.0%。相对于常规管理措施,采用水肥菌/药一体化技术可以节约灌溉用水18.8%、节约用肥33.3%、节约用药21.3%。上述结果表明:土壤熏蒸消毒结合使用水肥菌/药一体化产品和技术,可以节水、节肥、节药,显著降低设施番茄各类病害的发生,提高番茄产量,实现节本增效。     

Spatial Analysis of Phytophthora infestans Genotypes and Late Blight Severity on Tomato and Potato in the Del Fuerte Valley Using Geostatistics and Geographic Information Systems

ABSTRACT Genetic structure of Phytophthora infestans, the causal agent of potato and tomato late blight, was analyzed spatially in a mixed potato and tomato production area in the Del Fuerte Valley, Sinaloa, Mexico. Isolates of P. infestans were characterized by mating type, allozyme analysis at the glucose-6-phosphate isomerase and peptidase loci, restriction fragment length polymorphism with probe RG57, metalaxyl sensitivity, and aggressiveness to tomato and potato. Spatial patterns of P. infestans genotypes were analyzed by geographical information systems and geo-statistics during the seasons of 1994-95, 1995-96, and 1996-97. Spatial analysis of the genetic structure of P. infestans indicates that geographic substructuring of this pathogen occurs in this area. Maps displaying the probabilities of occurrence of mating types and genotypes of P. infestans, and of disease severity at a regional scale, were presented. Some genotypes that exhibited differences in epidemiologically important features such as metalaxyl sensitivity and aggressiveness to tomato and potato had a restricted spread and were localized in isolated areas. Analysis of late blight severity showed recurring patterns, such as the earliest onset of the disease in the area where both potato and tomato were growing, strengthening the hypothesis that infected potato tubers are the main source of primary inoculum. The information that geostatistical analysis provides might help improve management programs for late blight in the Del Fuerte Valley.     

Early warning system for grapevine in South Moravia (Czech Republic)*

South Moravia is a very important agricultural region with 12 000 ha of fruiting vineyards. The forecasting and warning service for vineyards in this region was created in 2000 as a PHARE Project which was part of a large‐scale programme ‘Cross‐border Cooperation between Czech Republic and Austria’. The aim of the project is ecological wine production. Forty automatic meteorological stations, located in the target area, create a network linked to a central computer. Meteorological data forecasts the development of Plasmopara viticola, Erysiphe necator and Botryotinia fuckeliana on bunches. The output can be used by growers to determine the time of fungicide application. The experiences and possibilities of improvement of the warning service are presented.     

Structure and organization of warning services in Rheinland‐Pfalz (Germany)*

Rheinland‐Pfalz, a federal state in the south‐western part of Germany, is an agricultural region with high crop diversity. For each branch of agriculture (arable, fruits, vegetables and ornamental plants), specific warning and information services have been installed. Advisory work, including warning services, is done by a central (LPP) and eight regional state institutions (SL V As). LPP provides the infrastructure for information dissemination, organizes data acquisition and supplies the farmers with general information on crop protection (availability of plant protection products, control strategies, etc.), SL V As collect data on current pest development and elaborate regional recommendations on field assessments and control measures to be taken by the farmers. Warning service information is transmitted to the farmers by info post (periodic letters), telephone‐answering machines, fax services and, lately, via the Internet. Farmers are mainly interested in current disease and pest severity data, preferably on a local basis, to aid their decision‐making in crop protection. The forecasting models and computer‐aided decision‐support systems run by the state crop protection service have become essential tools during the last four years. Their results, supplemented by field‐monitoring data, serve as the main input for the warning services. The Internet, in conjunction with computerized decision‐support systems, provides the means of ensuring an adequate supply of warning service information at a time when crop protection services are undergoing severe staff reductions.     

Field evaluation of a supervised control system forBotrytis leaf blight in spring sown onions in the Netherlands

Between 1988 and 1992 two existing weather based advisory models to control leaf blight in onions, were evaluated in the Netherlands. The first model, BOTCAST, can be used to time the initial spray while the second model, SIV, can be used to advise on every subsequent spraying. The evaluation based on field trials showed that application of both BOTCAST and SIV can reduce the number of sprays by 54% compared to a weekly spraying program without any yield loss or a higher disease severity. There was no relation between yield losses of untreated plots and disease severity expressed as lesion counts or leaf dieback. Relative disease growth rate was significantly but not closely related to weather based model characteristics or the observed crop micro-climate using linear regression analysis. The model characteristics did not yield better regressions than the climatological characteristics. Two changes to improve BOTCAST are proposed. Introduction of a supervised control system based on BOTCAST and SIV seems only economically feasible when the system is used as a regional warning system.     

Forecasting and Warning in Danish Agriculture1

In Denmark, the principle is maintained of forecasting and warning against pests and diseases which are not easily recognized by the farmer himself. The forecasting and warning system is based upon close cooperation between the farmers' unions, a well-organized network of plant husbandry advisers and the State Plant Pathology Institute in Lyngby. Most field data are collected by the advisers and forwarded to Lyngby from where announcements on current attacks are distributed as appropriate. Realizing the considerable local variations in the occurrence and course of the attacks, plant pathologists mainly notify the advisers, who can then intervene, if necessary, with a local warning for their own districts. Potato blight, however, is an exception, country-wide forecasting being broadcast every year. This may also be the case with warnings againts aphids. Potato blight forecasting has been in operation since 1935 and warnings against aphids in beets (causing virus yellows) since 1957. Each year about 10 different pests and diseases are warned against. Au Danemark, le principe prévaut d'assurer les prévisions et les avertissements pour les déprédateurs qui ne sont pas facilement dépistés par I'exploitant. Le système se base sur une coopération étroite entre les syndicats dexploitants, un réseau bien organisé de conseillers agricoles, et 1'Institut national de phytopathologie à Lyngby. Les observations de plein champ sont realisees par les conseillers qui transmettent les resultats a Lyngby. L'Institut assure alors la dissemination des informations sur les attaques en cours. Compte tenu de la forte variation regionale de L'incidence et de I'evolution des attaques, les phytopathologues avertissent les conseillers qui decident s'il y a lieu d'emettre des avertissements dans leur district. Le mildiou de la pomme de terre, cependant, est considere au niveau national et, suivant les cas, egalement les pucerons. Les previsions contre le mildiou sont en place depuis 1935, et contre les pucerons de la betterave (vecteur du yellows virus) depuis 1957. Chaque années, une dizaine de ravageurs et maladies font L'objet d'avertissements.     

Rational arrangement of a network for disease survey on a regional scale*

The forecasting and warning system of Emilia‐Romagna region (Italy) produces warnings for crop protection against diseases, using information from weather stations, biological surveys on a network of observation fields and simulation models. The network of field observations is crucial for the efficiency of the service but, unfortunately, the human and economic resources available for their management are usually less than needed. Therefore, the number of observation fields is insufficient to cover the entire territory uniformly, so that their geographical distribution increases in importance. In this work, a method for rational arrangement of observation fields on a regional scale is proposed. It uses models simulating crop growth and disease outbreak, both using meteorological data available on a 5‐km mesh, to draw maps showing homogeneous areas within the territory. For the main pathogens of winter wheat (Erysiphe graminis, Puccinia striiformis, Puccinia recondita and Fusarium subsp.), disease risk is calculated when host plants are susceptible to infection, and both static and dynamic maps are drawn. The use of maps is discussed in arranging observation fields and in timing field surveys.     

近年来中国马铃薯晚疫病的时空演变特征及防控情况分析

为系统全面地了解马铃薯晚疫病在我国的发生演变特征及防控情况,基于2008—2017年国家统计局官方数据、《中国农业统计资料》《全国植保专业统计资料》及全国马铃薯品种分布等数据,对全国及各马铃薯产区晚疫病的发生及防治情况进行综合量化分析。结果表明：马铃薯晚疫病在我国连年发生,年平均发生面积约197.47万hm²,占马铃薯总种植面积的40.66%;晚疫病造成马铃薯年平均产量损失占所有病害所致产量损失的63.54%,远高于其他病害,损失巨大;在我国马铃薯4大产区中,马铃薯晚疫病在北方一作区的年平均发生面积最大,约73.44万hm²,而在西南混作区造成的年平均产量损失最高,约14.29万t;晚疫病发生与马铃薯种植区域的重心在空间上呈现相似的迁移趋势;以费乌瑞它为代表的高感晚疫病品种在全国大面积种植,但近年来部分抗病品种的种植面积正在逐年增加;近年来我国对马铃薯晚疫病的防治面积大幅度提升,但仍太过依赖化学防治,应加大绿色防控技术的推广和应用力度。     

Computerized information system for cereal disease management in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)1

CERMAL is a computerized system on cereal diseases in Emilia-Romagna (IT), holding yearly data on severity of fungal diseases (powdery mildew, rusts, septoria diseases, scab, net and spot blotch, scald and black point) on bread wheat, durum wheat, barley and triticale collected in the experimental trials of the Union of Experimental Stations in Emilia-Romagna (CERAS) since 1979. The data base contains information on approximately 300 experimental trials. Basic trial data (year, location, cereal-growing area) and severity of disease on each cultivar are stored. A management program allows data to be retrieved on the basis of year, cereal-growing area and/or cultivar, for use in statistical analyses. Information on the behaviour of cultivars in relation to disease, the probability of disease appearance and development, and the level of disease risk in a given cereal-growing area can be output and used for cultivar choice and disease management. CERMAL operates within the integrated production program for wheat and barley supported by the Emilia-Romagna region.     

Development of a forecasting model for scald,Rhynchosporium secalis,on rye in relation to climatic conditions1

In a large-scale forecasting project financed by the German Ministry of Agriculture, in collaboration with the National Plant Protection Service, data for modelling forecasting systems in field and horticultural crops are obtained and evaluated. Using climatic records from automatic weather stations and weekly disease assessments in the field, a practical model for forecasting Rhynchosporium secalis on rye has been established with a discriminant function in which temperature, leaf wetness and a disease index during the infection period were used as classification variables. This function decides on application of fungicide sprays.     

近年我国马铃薯四大产区病虫害发生及防控情况的比较分析

为更系统地了解我国马铃薯四大产区病虫害发生情况,通过对2008—2017年《全国植保专业统计资料》进行汇总,本文重点分析我国马铃薯四大产区北方一作区、中原二作区、西南混作区和南方冬作区的晚疫病、早疫病、蚜虫、蛴螬等病虫害发生及防控情况,并对各产区间的相关指标进行比较分析。结果表明:马铃薯四大产区病虫害发生危害情况不同,晚疫病作为马铃薯最主要病害之一,高发于北方一作区和西南混作区,造成年均产量损失分别占各区总损失的42.41%和64.22%,远高于其它病虫害;中原二作区马铃薯病虫害种类繁多,且均对产量造成威胁。在四大产区中,北方一作区年均病虫害发生面积最大,实际产量损失最高,二者均超出该产区种植面积占比。当前,马铃薯四大产区病虫害防控仍太过依赖化学农药,应进一步推进病虫害绿色防控技术的研发和推广,加快病虫害专业化统防统治与绿色防控技术的融合。     

水稻稻飞虱和纹枯病系统控制研究

在系统分析历史资料、深入研究稻飞虱和纹枯病发生为害规律基础上,组建病虫测报模型,探讨控害丰产配套栽培技术及提高化防水平,定性定量地建立以准确的测报为前提,合理施肥、密植技术为主的生态控制为基础,按复合防治指标进行化学防治,系统控制稻飞虱、纹枯病,经近几年来的应用,收到显著的经济、生态及社会效益。