Convergence Amid Divergence in a Region

The convergence hypothesis from neoclassical growth theory is examined for per capita incomes of counties within a large subnational region, the Great Plans. Convergence of the β and σ varieties are considered. The former describes the tendency for economies with low per capita incomes in an initial period to grow faster than those with higher incomes. The latter describes the tendency for the dispersion of incomes to fall over time and eventually stabilize. Total per capita incomes across the region show a β convergence speed over the past quarter century roughly equal to that found for activity measures in previous analyses of nation groups, continental regions, and states of the U.S. As concerns σ convergence, the dispersion of total per capita incomes in the region stabilized during the past decade. However, when transfer payments and dividends, interest, and rents are deducted from income, β convergence speeds drop markedly and the dispersion of incomes rises over the study period.     

U.S. Economic Growth vs. Environmental Conditions

A widely-held belief is that stricter environmental regulations stifle economic growth. To determine empirically the effect of environmental conditions and policies on state-level per capita income growth, a Barro-type economic growth model was estimated for the years 1982 to 1991, which correspond to two consecutive troughs in the business cycle. States with better environmental conditions had significantly higher income growth rates during this period. At the same time, stricter environmental policies did not significantly depress income growth. Data used include recently developed, consistent measures of environmental policy and quality for individual states, as well as data from the 1980 U.S. Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis.     

State Unemployment Differentials: Equilibrium Factors vs. Differential Employment Growth

: Differentials in U.S. state unemployment rates were persistent in the early 1990s. In addition, states with higher employment growth did not necessarily have the lowest unemployment rates. Thus, this paper examines the differentials in U.S. state unemployment rates from 1992 to 1994, decomposing them into the parts that were due to differences in recent employment growth, and those that were due to longer-term equilibrium factors. Also, using the shift-share model, employment growth differences are decomposed into an industry mix component and a competitiveness component. The decomposition of the 1992 to 1994 unemployment rate differentials is based on an econometric equation estimated using panel data from 1972 to 1991. Explanatory equilibrium factors included in the model are amenities, demographic characteristics, education, industry composition, labor mobility, and wage rates.     

The End of the Nuclear Era: Nuclear Decommissioning and Its Economic Impacts on U.S. Counties

Between 1957 and 1990, nearly 100 nuclear reactors were constructed throughout the U.S., and nuclear power currently accounts for 20 percent of electricity production nationwide. Nuclear plants are often constructed in small communities for which they constitute a large source of employment and income. To date, 24 nuclear reactors have undergone decommissioning, and more are expected in the future, particularly as nuclear reactors age and face increasingly strict regulations. This paper examines the effects of nuclear decommissioning over time at the county‐level on measures of employment, income, and population using difference‐in‐differences regression and propensity score matching. Panel data are obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, and cover the years 1975–2014. The analysis finds that nuclear decommissioning is associated with positive and statistically significant increases in employment and per capita income over time. Results suggest that nuclear decommissioning may actually be a positive force in regional economic development, and concludes with limitations of the approach and implications for future research. As an emerging area of research, this paper is meant to build on previous work, as well as to provide a basis for further discussion and debate on the economic future of nuclear host communities and regional economies.     

Does Public Lands Policy Affect Local Wage Growth?

The effects on wage growth of management practices applied on public lands in the Northern Forest region of the United States are quantified. A central objective is to determine if the management of public lands for preservationist uses results in lower average wages. This is a frequent claim made by critics of land preservation who argue that preservationist management, by prohibiting resource extraction, causes the composition of employment to shift from high‐wage jobs in resource‐based manufacturing to low‐wage jobs in the service sector. A model of simultaneous employment and net migration growth is estimated with data on non‐metropolitan counties over the period 1990 to 1999 and applied in a recursive relationship to wage growth. In earlier studies, models of this type have typically been specified in levels. Time‐series evidence that supports a preference for growth rates is provided as the form for such models. Exogenous variables in this model include the 1990 shares of the county land base that are publicly owned and managed for preservationist (non‐extractive) uses and multiple (including extractive) uses. It was found that wage growth rates are not significantly affected by the shares of land under either management regime. As well, recent declines in national forest timber sales are found to have no effect on wage growth.     

Are Teen Unemployment Rates Influenced by State Minimum Wage Laws?

ABSTRACT Several recent studies have challenged the conventional notion that raising the minimum wage has negative labor market consequences. In particular, most recent minimum wage research has considered teen employment, with virtually no examination of unemployment rates. Given the conflicting findings in the recent literature, this study reconsiders this issue by examining the minimum wage's influence on teen unemployment rates. The empirical analysis considers state data from the latter 1980s, a unique period where many states raised their minimum wage above the federal level. The results suggest that both a greater minimum wage rate and greater minimum wage coverage increase teen unemployment rates. Further evidence suggests that employment declines outweigh teen labor force reductions, suggesting that increases in unemployment are primarily caused by labor demand shifts. Thus, policy makers should weigh these costs in deciding future minimum wage hikes.     

Moonlighting in a High Growth Economy: Evidence from U.S. State‐Level Data

Despite the prevalence of multiple jobholding, there is relatively little research into its causes. Existing research has tested the predictions of standard labor models with micro data. Yet, there has been virtually no research into the relationship between moonlighting and structural differences in regional labor markets such as wages and employment growth. In this manner, this study examines the large differences in multiple jobholding rates across U.S. states. The findings indicate that multiple jobholding acts as a short‐term shock absorber to cyclical changes. However, in the long‐term, these effects dissipate, indicating that moonlighting plays a similar role as do changes in unemployment and labor‐force participation to regional labor market shocks. Conversely, multiple jobholding rates are inversely related to average weekly earnings. Thus, job growth accompanied by real wage (and productivity) growth may result in a decline in multiple jobholding, further exacerbating potential labor shortages. Other key factors found to influence multiple jobholding include occupational structure and education.     

How Fast Do We Grow?

The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether major results from Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) cross national study on productivity convergence hold when applied to U.S. states where there is more uniformity of institutional factors and homogeneity of the economic data. Similar to the international studies, this paper identifies the contribution of factor inputs and human capital by state for the period 1969–88. The study finds a strong tendency for convergence even when controlling for other factors, with human capital growth being most important; the speed of convergence is roughly twice as high as between countries.     

Changes in the Appalachian Wage Gap, 1970 to 2000

ABSTRACT Since at least 1960, Appalachia has had lower wages, employment rates, and educational attainment than the rest of the country. Using a sample from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Census project, the author identifies factors affecting the wage gap between 1970 and 2000. The author finds that increases in educational attainment in Appalachia are counterbalanced by increasing returns to observable and unobservable skill, the decline of the manufacturing industry, and rising wage dispersion, leaving the wage gap for full‐time workers in 2000 at essentially the same levels as 1970.     

Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis

Most applications of shift-share analysis to regional employment change have used a study period of several years and have examined conditions only at the beginning and end years. This comparative static approach does not take into account the continuous changes in both industrial mix and size of total employment of the region over the study period. Calculating the national growth effect, the industrial mix effect, and the competitive effect on an annual basis and then summing the results over the study period provides a more accurate allocation of job changes among the three shift-share effects. This approach, which we term dynamic shift-share analysis, also allows unusual years and years of economic transition to he identified. We illustrate the use of dynamic shift-share by presenting results of an analysis of New England employment growth from 1939 to 1984, using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The use of the dynamic form of shift-share is important when the study period is characterized by either large changes in regional industrial mix or major differences between regional and national growth rates.     

Integrating Civil Society and Economic Growth in Appalachia

ABSTRACT Building from a framework that incorporates ideas from the civil society perspective into market‐based sociological models of economic growth, this article examines the effects of three measures of civic engagement on measure of economic growth in Appalachian counties during the 1990–1995 period. The analysis shows that net of other market competition‐based measures, civic engagement does have a net positive impact on economic growth (increases in private non‐farm employment, private establishment, per capita income, earnings, etc.). The three measures of civic engagement are (1) percent of population in civically engaged denominations (1990), (2) number of national associations per capita (1990), (3) and number of third places per capita (1990). All three measures have significant positive effects in one or more models. Percent in civically engaged denominations has the most consistent effects. Implications are discussed.     

Endogenous Processes in European Regional Growth: Convergence and Policy

The traditional empirical approaches to the analysis of economic growth,cross‐section and panel data regressions are substantially uninformative withrespect to the issue of convergence. Whether national or regional economies appear to converge in terms of per capita income or productivity levels (the so‐called β‐convergence) critically depends on the way in which the empirical model is specified. Traditional specifications witness a disproportionate presence of proxies for forces leading towards divergence among the conditioning variables. It is therefore hardly surprising that these analyses find a positive and statistically significant value for the estimate of the speed of convergence. A more constructive use of cross‐section and panel data regressions is in the analysis of the determinants of growth. The present paper therefore builds on recent work on the role of different growth determinants (Cheshire and Carbonaro 1996) and analyses the growth performance of 122 Functional Urban Regions (FURs)over the period 1978–1994. This model explicitly recognizes growth as amultivariate process. In this new formulation it incorporates a spatialized adaptation of Romer's endogenous growth model (Romer 1990), developing the work of Magrini (Magrini 1997). Magrini's model originated from the view that technological knowledge has a very important tacit component that has been neglected in formal theories of endogenous growth. This tacit component, being the non‐written personal heritage of individuals or groups, is naturally concentrated in space. As a result, technological change is profoundly influenced by the interaction between firms and their local environments. The present paper reports the results of the estimation of a fully specified model of regional growth in per capita income. Particular attention is played to the role of research and development (R&D) activities, and to the influence of factors such as Universities that shape the local environments and have important policy implications. These results are then applied to quantifying the scope for policy to influence the growth process. Several simulations are presented deriving alternative growth outcomes across European regions that would have been obtained if those variables over which policy might have control—including the contribution of human capital—had had alternative values reflecting the realistic scope of policy makers' influence. The implications for convergence/divergence in regional per capita income levels are then analyzed using a Markov chain approach (Quah 1993 and 1996; Magrini 1999).     

Air Passenger Transportation and Growth in the U.S. Urban System, 1950–1987

The relationship between transportation and urbanization at the national scale is revisited by focusing upon the role that air passenger transportation has played in the post-war evolution of the U.S. urban system. Theory suggests that major transportation innovations have exhibited profound and prolonged interdependencies with patterns of growth in national or regional urban systems. As the most recent major intercity transportation innovation, it should be expected that utilization of air transportation should bear some relationship to patterns of growth in urban places. This paper documents this relationship by using FAA and U.S. Census data to correlate volumes of air passenger flows per capita with changes in population and employment for the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. The expectation that higher volumes of air passenger flow per capita exhibit a positive correlation with both previous and subsequent growth is confirmed by the analysis. More detailed examination of both high and low air passenger index cities suggests functional and regional consistencies with the central hypothesis. The implications of these results for air transportation and airport planning include at least some justification for increased attention to provision of air service and adequate airport infrastructure as well as reiteration of the importance of air transportation in economic development.     

Commuting distances to local non‐farm workplaces and out‐migration: The case of Northeast Thailand

The relationship between commuting distances and where people work has been studied for urban contexts in both developed countries and developing countries. However, few studies have examined the situation in rural areas, and none look at commuting distances to non‐farm workplaces in rural areas of developing countries. This paper investigates how commuting distance, and thus accessibility, to local non‐farm work influences non‐farm employment and out‐migration from rural villages in Northeast Thailand. The main issues examined are: (i) the distance that rural residents travel to work in local non‐farm jobs; and (ii) the influence that local non‐farm employment has on the number of outmigrants from rural villages. The study finds: (i) distance between villages and non‐farm work sites impact the number of villagers who are employed in regular wage work; (ii) beyond 20 km villagers are less likely to travel to non‐farm employment using their own means of transportation; and (iii) employment in regular wage work decreases outmigration. The findings from this study contribute to the debates over the drivers of rural out‐migration, rural livelihood changes, and agrarian changes that are taking place in Southeast Asia.     

Regulating informality: Worker centers and collective action in day-labor markets

Day-labor markets are characterized by chronic instability, low pay, and weak institutional protections against violations of labor standards. In the U.S., worker centers address these conditions through the operation of hiring halls that dispatch workers, set minimum wages, and redress wage theft. Surveys conducted in Seattle in 2012 and 2015 were used to evaluate wage rates, employment rates, and wage theft variables for workers at a worker center and those seeking employment at four informal hiring sites. Worker center members were found to have significantly higher wages, higher employment rates, and lower rates of wage theft than day laborers who search for employment in public spaces.     

Behind the Pan‐European Convergence Path: The Role of Innovation,Specialisation and Socio‐economic Factors

The paper analyses the determinants of regional disparities in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and their evolution over time in the enlarged European Union (EU). With reference to the literature it groups EU regions on the basis of three different factors—specialisation, socio‐economic features, and innovation. It then analyses regional disparities in per capita GDP (EU‐relative and country‐relative) across groups over 2004–2011 using both non‐parametric tools and traditional regression analysis with spatial effects. The paper finds that EU‐wide convergence actually conceals growing divergence across old member regions and within new members. Coming to the factors that lie at the heart of regional disparities, country factors lose importance for newcomers but become more important for older members, notwithstanding longstanding integration. Socio‐economic factors and innovation instead become increasingly important for all areas, socio‐economic factors lying at the heart of within‐country differences and innovation more of those between regions. Finally, specialisation appears to have a lower explanatory power.     

南疆三地州农民收入结构调整对贫困的影响研究

鉴于农民人均收入的高低和农村恩格尔系数的大小能够直接反映农村贫困状况,以农民人均收入和农村恩格尔系数表征农村贫困状况,通过选择南疆三地州作为研究区,以农民人均收入和农村恩格尔系数为参考序列与农民收入结构进行灰色关联分析,从而得出农民收入结构与贫困之间的内在关联程度。结果表明：家庭经营性收入与贫困关联程度最大,其次为工资性收入和财产性收入,转移性收入对贫困状况的影响程度相对较小。因此,进一步从优化种植结构、加大农村剩余劳动力转移等方面提出了相关政策建议,以期为南疆三地州农村经济的发展提供参考。     

Interactions Between Economic Growth and Environmental Quality in U.S. Counties

ABSTRACT Linkages among changes in employment, earnings per worker, and pollution per square mile are estimated for 3,036 U.S. counties for the period 1987 to 1995 using a three‐equation disequilibrium adjustment model. Counties with higher shares of African‐Americans experienced higher earnings growth rates over the period 1987‐1995, as did counties with proportionally more females. Counties in states with higher shares of unionized workers had higher earnings growth rates but generated fewer new jobs. Firm size had a significant and negative effect on earnings growth while higher costs of living were associated with higher earnings growth. Also, metro counties and counties in the Northeastern U.S. experienced higher earnings growth than their non‐metro counterparts and counties in other geographic regions. Statistically, faster job growth was found to accelerate the rate of earnings growth per worker. The authors conclude that counties concerned with job growth should recruit or attempt to spawn the creation of larger firms, recognizing that for some firms such a strategy may come at the cost of more rapid increases in pollution. Counties concerned with increasing the rate of growth in per worker earnings should instead focus on the creation of smaller firms.     

基于选择模型的农村劳动力非农就业影响因素分析——以陕西武功县为例

为了研究农村劳动力的非农就业问题对提高农民收入,促进农民充分就业,推动二元经济结构转型有着重要意义。基于2011年8月陕西省武功县83个农户的调查数据,建立Probit为代表的选择模型,研究教育程度、性别、年龄、受培训状况、婚姻状态、村干部作用以及人均土地面积对非农就业决策的影响。研究结果表明:婚姻状况,受培训状况和家庭人均土地面积因素不显著,而性别、年龄、接受教育年限和村干部作用因素显著,基于分析结果提出应大力发展农村教育事业,加强对农村劳动力的培训力度;完善农村社会保障体系,加快小城镇建设步伐,发展高效、低耗、环保的乡镇企业,培育农村劳动力就业新的增长点。     

Servicing Our Economy: Producer Service Location and Government Procurement 2004–2010 in the Washington DC Metropolitan Area

Harrington and Campbell (1997) previously illuminated the pattern of producer services' suburbanization in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area between 1970 and 1992. Their results showed producer services growing at a faster rate at locations farther from the central city. We revisit the topic utilizing data from 2004 to 2010, assessing not only changes in the distribution of producer services since their work, but also the impact of massive increases in defense spending on producer services' growth throughout the first decade of the twenty‐first century. Multivariate linear regression is used to estimate per capita growth of producer services employment using six independent variables. Our results reveal producer services employment during the time period has grown significantly more quickly in the urban D.C. core than the outer suburbs, contrary to Harrington and Campbell's research. Additionally, we find per capita producer services employment is self‐limiting over the study period: locations with more producer services employment in 2004 experienced significantly less producer services growth over the period. We find federal procurement has no correlation on producer services overall, with limited effects on some subsectors. Analyzing a select group of producer services subsectors revealed that no sectors followed the overall model exactly, suggesting that targeting producer services for growth must be done carefully. None of our models show employment diversity to be a factor in differentiating economic growth at the intra‐metropolitan level.