中国南部区域植被与气候关系初探

以全球变暖为背景,以中国南部区域18.00°—27.50°N、108.50°—112.50°E样带为研究对象,以纬度为梯度,应用CRU(Climate Research Unit)全球观测数据集和CO2浓度倍增后的2050年模拟气候状况作为平衡态陆地生物圈模型BIOME4的气候驱动,对中国南部样带历史100 a和未来50 a间的潜在植被变化进行模拟和统计分析。结果表明,随时间推移与全球变暖加剧,植被类型变化呈加剧趋势;温度作为植被变化的主要因素导致热带与温带植被的交错带成为气候变化的敏感地带。历史气候条件下,北回归线以北边缘地带的24.5°N的植被变化率最大,其次为以南边缘地带的22.5°N。在CO2浓度倍增导致温度、降雨量、最低温都显著增加后,研究区域植被变化率最大地带由北回归线边缘带北移到25.5°N。     

Global scale forest function and distribution

A model is described for predicting the dynamic changes in theproportion of tree, shrub and grass life forms at the globalscale. This model is driven by the impacts of climate, soilsand CO₂ on global vegetation leaf area index and net primaryproductivity. The life-form model has been used to explore theinfluences of global warming and continued CO₂ increase on treecover This reflects a realization from other modelling workthat forested vegetation, at the global scale, exerts significantinfluences on climate, and so it is important to assess thepotential for this feedback under climatic change. An increase in CO₂ from 350 to 560 p.p.m. is modelled to haveonly a small impact on tree cover, under current climate. Aregionally-consistent and global increase in temperature ofc.2^{ring}C and a 10 per cent increase in precipitation, butwith no increase in CO₂, indicates a significant potential fortrees to spread into current shrub tundra, over a period of50 years This could lead to regional warming, through changesin winter albedo. The effect of the CO₂ increase is most noticeablein interaction with increases in temperature (2^{ring}C) andprecipitation (10 per cent). In this case the life-form modelprojects further increases in tree cover, particularly in areaswith seasonally low periods of precipitation.     

Bud activity of decapitated, nursery-grown plants ofTriplochiton scleroxylon in Nigeria: effects of light, temperature and humidity

This study is a continuation of earlier work on apical dominance inTriplochiton scleroxylon K. Schum., aimed at the development of an early clonal selection test for branching habit and yield in tree improvement programmes. Decapitated plants of five to seven clones were treated with either: (i) two photon flux densities (photosynthetically active radiation at full or 10% sunlight, approximately 2000 and 200 μmol quanta m⁻²s⁻¹ measured at midday on a clear day); (ii) two temperatures (ambient 30°C or 40°C in a polythene tent); (iii) two humidities (ambient=40–70% relative humidity at 30°C or with humidification=95–100% relative humidity at 28°C). Bud activity, shoot length and numbers of leaves produced following decapitation were all increased by high photon flux density and high humidity. In contrast to similar studies under glasshouse conditions in Britain, dominance was not re-established following the initial period of sprouting. The sprouting phase was similar in Nigeria and Britain. Clonal differences in bud activity were similar under different treatments, although there were minor changes in ranking. Increasing the air temperatures from 30 to 40°C resulted in leaf areas of 165 cm² and 23 cm², respectively. Normal polarity of lateral shoot production following decapitation was completely inverted by high temperature.     

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest

As global climate changes over the next century, forest productivity is expected to change as well. Using PRISM climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 plots, we developed a simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model to estimate the impacts of climate change on potential productivity of Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests of the United States. Productivity, measured by projected potential mean annual increment (PMAI) at culmination, is explained by the interaction of annual temperature, precipitation, and precipitation in excess of evapotranspiration through the growing season. By utilizing information regarding spatial error in the SAR model, the resulting spatial bias is reduced thereby improving the accuracy of the resulting maps. The model, coupled with climate change output from four generalized circulation models, was used to predict the productivity impacts of four different scenarios derived from the fourth IPCC special report on emissions, representing different future economic and environmental states of the world, viz., scenario A1B, A2, B1 (low growth, high economic development and low energy usage), and COMMIT. In these scenarios, regional average temperature is expected to increase from 0.5 to 4.5 °C, while precipitation shows no clear trend over time. For the west and east side of the Cascade Mountains, respectively, PMAI increases: 7% and 20% under A1B scenario; 8% and 23% under scenario A2; 5% and 15% under scenario B1, and 2% and 5% under the COMMIT scenario. These projections should be viewed as potential changes in productivity, since they do not reflect the mitigating effects of any shifts in management or public policy. For managers and policy makers, the results suggest the relative magnitude of effects and the potential variability of impacts across a range of climate scenarios.     

The impacts of climate change on potential natural vegetation distribution

Change in potential natural vegetation (PNV) distribution associated with climate change due to the doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide (2×CO₂) was estimated with a global natural vegetation mapping system based on the modified Kira scheme to the globe and the continents. With an input of widely-distributed global climate data, the system interpolates data onto a 1° latitude by 1° longitude grid over the globe, generates estimates of vegetation type, and produces a composite PNV map. The input climate data corresponding to the 1×CO₂ and 2×CO₂ consists of observations prior to AD 1958 at 2,001 weather stations worldwide and the 2×CO₂ simulation output from the Japan Meteorological Research Institue's General Circulation Model, respectively. As a result of the simulated global warming, the vegetation zones expanded mostly from the tropics toward the poles. PNV area changed by 6.98 billion (G) ha of the total land area (15.04 Gha) and potential forest area corresponding to the closed forest and open forest (woodland) reached 9.74 Gha with the increase of 1.29 Gha. The potential forest area in Europe had obvious advantages to the climate change accompanied with the increase of actual forest area. Although the actual forest area has decreased in North America and Asia, the potential forest area in these continents also benefitted from the climate change. In the end, the remaining continents tended to bear the brunt of the climate change.     

Satellite-based estimation of biomass carbon stocks for northeast China''s forests between 1982 and 1999

Northeast China maintains large areas of primary forest resource and has been experiencing the largest increase in temperature over the past several decades in the country. Therefore, studying its forest biomass carbon (C) stock and the change is important to the sustainable use of forest resources and understanding of the forest C budget in China. In this study, we use forest inventory datasets for three inventory periods of 1984–1988, 1989–1993 and 1994–1998 and NOAA/AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 1999, to estimate forest biomass C stock and its changes in this region over the last two decades. The averaged forest biomass C stock and C density were estimated as 2.10 Pg C (1 Pg = 10¹⁵ g) and 44.65 Mg C ha⁻¹ over the study period. The forest biomass C stock has increased by 7% with an annual rate of 0.0082 Pg C. The largest increase in the C density occurred in two humid mountain areas, Changbai Mountains and northern Xiaoxing’anling Mountains. Climate warming is probably the key driving force for this increase, while anthropogenic activities such as afforestation and deforestation may contribute to variations in the C stocks.     

Predicting the distributions of suitable habitat for three larch species under climate warming in Northeastern China

The larch (Larix) genus is the most important species group in the forest ecosystems in Northeastern China, occupying about 25% of the forest areas. The high tolerance to coldness and relatively fast growth rate make this genus the main species group for forestation. According to the predictions of the global circulation model CGCM3, temperature could rise by 2–4 °C over the next 100 years. Few studies have been conducted on the response of larch species to climate warming in Northeastern China. Such studies are becoming increasingly needed due to the economic and ecological significance of this genus. This paper studies the potential distribution ranges of three larch species under the current and the warming climate conditions. A new classification and regression tree technique, Random Forest, was used to investigate the potential distributions of three larch species, based on 18 environmental variables which reflect the climate, topography and soil conditions of Northeastern China. The results showed that the biological coldness index (BCI) is the most important factor for Dahurian larch, annual precipitation (AP) is the most important factor for Korean larch and elevation (DEM) is the most important factor for Prince Rupprecht larch.     

Study of landscape change under forest harvesting and climate warming-induced fire disturbance

We examined tree species responses under forest harvesting and an increased fire disturbance scenario due to climate warming in northern Wisconsin where northern hardwood and boreal forests are currently predominant. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was simulated with a gap model, which integrates soil, climate and species data, stratified by ecoregions. Such responses were quantified as species establishment coefficients. These coefficients were used to parameterize a spatially explicit landscape model, LANDIS. Species response to climate warming at the landscape scale was simulated with LANDIS, which integrates ecosystem dynamics with spatial processes including seed dispersal, fire disturbance, and forest harvesting. Under a 5 °C annual temperature increase predicted by global climate models (GCM), our simulation results suggest that significant change in species composition and abundance could occur in the two ecoregions in the study area. In the glacial lake plain (lakeshore) ecoregion under warming conditions, boreal and northern hardwood species such as red oak, sugar maple, white pine, balsam fir, paper birch, yellow birch, and aspen decline gradually during and after climate warming. Southern species such as white ash, hickory, bur oak, black oak, and white oak, which are present in minor amounts before the warming, increase in abundance on the landscape. The transition of the northern hardwood and boreal forest to one dominated by southern species occurs around year 200. In the sand barrens ecoregion under warming conditions, red pine initially benefits from the decline of other northern hardwood species, and its abundance quickly increases. However, red pine and jack pine as well as new southern species are unable to reproduce, and the ecoregion could transform into a region with only grass and shrub species around 250 years under warming climate. Increased fire frequency can accelerate the decline of shade-tolerant species such as balsam fir and sugar maple and accelerate the northward migration of southern species. Forest harvesting accelerated the decline of northern hardwood and boreal tree species. This is especially obvious on the barrens ecoregion, where the intensive cutting regime contributed to the decline of red pine and jack pine already under stressed environments. Forest managers may instead consider a conservative cutting plan or protective management scenarios with limited forest harvesting. This could prolong the transformation of the barrens into prairie from one-half to one tree life cycle.     

Changes in forest vegetation and arbuscular mycorrhizae along a steep elevation gradient in Arizona

We assessed species composition, richness and abundance of understory vegetation, as well as arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) inoculum potential on the San Francisco Peaks, tallest mountains in Arizona, crossing a steep, south-facing elevational gradient. These mountains have a high conservation value due to their rare habitats but previous vegetation studies have been limited. Because mature trees in the Pinaceae do not form associations with AM fungi, there may be more variation in plant community and AM fungal associations in coniferous forest than in ecosystems where all species associate with AM fungi. Differences in species composition between forest types reflected differences in the historical disturbance regimes. Species richness was highest in ponderosa pine forest (32.6 ± 1.4 per 1000 m² plot), although plant abundance was highest in aspen forest (49.4 ± 3.8%). Ponderosa pine and bristlecone pine forest were both high in species richness and contained species which were tolerant of frequent, low-intensity fire. Exotic species richness and abundance were highest in the lower elevations, which were also areas of high species richness and greater anthropogenic disturbance. Arbuscular mycorrhizal inoculum potential varied widely (1.2–80.1%), decreasing with increases in tree cover. We suggest indicator species that may be of use in monitoring these forests under changing climate and fire regimes.     

Predicting survival of planted Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine seedlings on dry,low-elevation sites in southwestern Oregon

Four equations were developed for predicting the probability of Douglas-fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) survival for the first (0–1) and first to third (1–3) growing seasons after applying mulching, scalping, or artificial shading (shade cards) treatments in plantations in southwestern Oregon, U.S.A. Variables describing conifer size, levels of competing vegetation, presence of silvicultural treatments, site factors, and climate factors were collected from 13 sites ranging from 0 to 6 years after planting and examined as potential predictors of survival. Age, stem diameter, a competition index for shrubs, severity of growing season at time of treatment, average annual precipitation, aspect, and slope angle were predictors of Douglas-fir survival during 0–1 and 1–3 growing seasons after treatment; the presence of silvicultural treatments was also a predictor only during the first growing season after treatment. Age, aspect, and slope angle were predictors of ponderosa pine survival over both 0–1 and 1–3 growing seasons after treatment; height-diameter ratio, competition indices for herbs, shrubs, and hardwoods, silvicultural treatment, severity of growing season at time of treatment, and average annual precipitation were also predictors only during the first growing season after treatment; crown width was a predictor of survival only during 1–3 growing seasons after treatment. When significant in the models, predicted probability of survival increases with treatments, less severe weather conditions, diameter, crown width, age, and precipitation; probability decreases with increasing height-diameter ratio and competition indices for herbs, shrubs, and hardwoods.     

Dynamics and potentials of carbon sequestration in managed stands and wood products in Finland under changing climatic conditions

Carbon (C) sequestration was studied in managed boreal forest stands and in wood products under current and changing climate in Finland. The C flows were simulated with a gap-type forest model interfaced with a wood product model. Sites in the simulations represented medium fertile southern and northern Finland sites, and stands were pure Scots pine and Norway spruce stands or mixtures of silver and pubescent birch.

Changing climate increased C sequestration clearly in northern Finland, but in southern Finland sequestration even decreased. Temperature is currently the major factor limiting tree growth in northern Finland. In southern Finland, the total average C balance over the 150 year period increased slightly in Scots pine stands and wood products, from 0.78 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year to 0.84 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year, while in birch stands and wood products the increase was larger, from 0.64 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year to 0.92 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year. In Norway spruce stands and wood products, the total average balance decreased substantially, from 0.96 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year to 0.32 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year. In northern Finland, the total average C balance of the 150 year period increased under changing climate, regardless of tree species: in Scots pine stands and wood products from 1.10 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year to 1.42 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year, in Norway spruce stands and wood products from 0.69 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year to 0.99 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year, and in birch stands and wood products from 0.43 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year to 0.60 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year.

C sequestration in unmanaged stands was larger than in managed systems, regardless of climate. However, wood products should be included in C sequestration assessments since 12–55% of the total 45–214 Mg C ha⁻¹ after 150 years' simulation was in products, depending on tree species, climate and location. The largest C flow from managed system back into the atmosphere was from litter, 36–47% of the total flow, from vegetation 22–32%, from soil organic matter 25–30%. Emissions from the production process and burning of discarded products were 1–6% of the total flow, and emissions from landfills less than 1%.     

2007—2017年呼伦贝尔沙地植被覆盖度变化及驱动因素研究

利用呼伦贝尔沙地及周边区域2007-2017年生长期遥感和气象数据,结合第五次全国荒漠化和沙化监测数据,对区域内植被覆盖度变化及气候因素的响应进行了研究。结果表明:2007—2017年呼伦贝尔沙地植被覆盖度呈现先上升后下降的趋势,2007-2013年植被覆盖度呈现整体增加的趋势,年均增加2.76%,显著增加的区域所占面积比例为20.52%,2013—2017年植被覆盖度呈现整体下降的趋势,年均下降6.57%,显著下降的区域所占面积比例为15.69%;区域植被覆盖度年际变化与降水量呈现显著正相关关系,与温度呈现非显著性负相关关系,与日照的相关性不明显。     

Influence of climate change,fire and harvest on the carbon dynamics of black spruce in Central Canada

The results of EFIMOD simulations for black spruce (Picea mariana [Miller]) forests in Central Canada show that climate warming, fire, harvesting and insects significantly influence net primary productivity (NPP), soil respiration (Rs), net ecosystem production (NEP) and pools of tree biomass and soil organic matter (SOM). The effects of six climate change scenarios demonstrated similar increasing trends of NPP and stand productivity. The disturbances led to a strong decrease in NPP, stand productivity, soil organic matter (SOM) and nitrogen (N) pools with an increase in CO₂ emission to the atmosphere. However the accumulated NEP for 150 years under harvest and fire fluctuated around zero. It becames negative only at a more frequent disturbance regime with four forest fires during the period of simulation. The results from this study show that changes in climate and disturbance regimes might substantially change the NPP as well as the C and N balance, resulting in major changes in the C pools of the vegetation and soil under black spruce forests.     

Growth and physiological response of eastern white pine seedlings to partial cutting and site preparation

We examined how white pine (Pinus strobus L.) seedlings planted under a mature cover of white and red (Pinus resinosa Ait.) pine in eastern Ontario (Canada) responded to treatments aimed at improving light and soil conditions for seedling growth. The treatments were: (a) three levels of partial cutting (no cut or CS0, cut to one-crown spacing between residual trees or CS1, cut to two-crown spacing or CS2); (b) two levels of vegetation control (without herbicide or H0, with herbicide or H1); and (c) two levels of soil scarification (S0 and S1). On the third growing season after planting, total growth of seedlings was lowest in CS0 treatment and similar in CS1 and CS2 treatments. The CS2 created better growing light conditions than the CS1, with and average of 50% of full light at seedling height, which corresponded to the maximum height and diameter growth rates of seedlings. However, CS2 also stimulated the growth of competing woody vegetation (both understory trees and shrubs), and resulted in greater microsite heterogeneity of light availability. Scarification warmed the soil (approximately 1–3 °C in the middle of the growing season), decreased the density of competing trees, but increased the shrub density, with no impact on white pine seedling growth. The treatments had no effect on light-saturated photosynthetic rate (A) of current-year foliage of seedlings, nor on their midday shoot water potential. Leaf N was higher in partial cuts and with vegetation control, but the relationship between N and A was weak to non-existent for the different foliage classes. Measures of the proportion of aboveground biomass allocated to foliage (leaf-mass ratio) suggest an acclimation response of young white pine that improves growth under moderate light availability and compensates for the lack of leaf-level photosynthetic plasticity. We suggest a combination of soil scarification under a one-crown spacing partial cut (corresponding to 14 m² ha⁻¹ of residual basal area, or an average of 32% of available light at seedling height) as an establishment cut. This should provide optimum growth conditions for planted understory white pine, while also favoring natural regeneration and providing some protection against damage from insects and disease.     

Successional patterns and gap phase dynamics of a humid tropical forest of the Western Ghats of Kerala, India: ground vegetation, biomass, productivity and nutrient cycling

The population dynamics of the ground vegetation and its energetics such as biomass accumulation and net primary productivity, and the nutrient cycling patterns in the humid tropical forest of the Western Ghats in India are largely determined by gap age and by whether gaps are formed naturally or through selection felling. Responses of plant categories such as herbs, shrubs, tree seedlings and saplings also vary depending upon gap type and age. An exotic species such as Chromolaena odorata occurred only in selection-felled gaps ((9 ± 3)−(49 ± 4) individuals (100 m)⁻²). Nilgirianthus ciliatus, a dominant shrub, plays a key role in the gaps in determining population dynamics of others. The net primary productivity of the ground vegetation, which is about 31.17 ± 4.26 kg (100 m)⁻² year⁻¹ in an undisturbed site, increased a year after gap formation to 102.82 ± 6.46 kg (100 m)⁻² year⁻¹ in natural gaps and to 71.82 ± 2.36 kg (100 m)⁻² year⁻¹ in selection-felled gaps. Five years after gap formation, net primary productivity of the ground vegetation declined considerably, this being related to decline in fast-growing shrub and secondary tree species in the vegetation and gap closure. A similar trend was also recorded for the rates of nutrient uptake and nutrient accumulation in the vegetation.

In natural gaps the soil nutrient level increased gradually with gap age. This could be attributed to slow release of nutrients from the fallen trunks and nutrient storage in the rapidly recovering vegetation. In contrast, in selection-felled gaps, the quantities of soil nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus and magnesium were higher in 1-year-old gaps than in undisturbed sites, owing to the release of these nutrients from leaf litter and wood debris which were deposited in larger quantities within the gap itself, and owing to sparse ground vegetation resulting from the greater disturbance of the soil, in the first 1 or 2 years. The fractional annual turnover rates of elements of the ground vegetation and the soil were higher in 1-year-old gaps and declined with gap age. The significance of these results for forest management is discussed.     

Regional impact assessment on forest structure and functions under climate change—the Brandenburg case study

A forest simulation model has been applied in a regional impact assessment to investigate impacts of climate change on forest structure and function in the Federal state of Brandenburg, Germany. The forest model FORSKA-M was linked to a GIS that included soil, groundwater table and land-use maps. Two climate scenarios (current climate and a climate change of 1.5 K temperature increase which is combined with a precipitation decrease of 10–20% on average) for 40 meteorological stations in and around Brandenburg were used to assess the sensitivity of species composition to climate change. Furthermore, the implications of vegetation changes for other forest functions were analysed by means of several indicators. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, measures of species diversity (Shannon’s and Simpson’s index) and habitat and structural diversity (Seibert’s index) were applied. The evaluation of impacts on groundwater recharge of natural and managed forests was carried out using the soil water balance model of FORSKA-M.At first, model simulations of the potential natural vegetation (PNV) on the whole area of Brandenburg with different climate scenarios were analysed. The results indicated that climatic warming would lead to a shift in the natural species composition in Brandenburg towards more drought tolerant species. The simulated diversity of the forests would be reduced, and groundwater recharge would be decreased.The majority of forests in the state of Brandenburg have been managed intensively in the past. At present, large areas of Brandenburg’s forests are dominated by pure stands of Scots pine, but current forest management practice aims at increasing the share of deciduous and mixed forests. In order to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on forest management, forest inventory data were used to initialise FORSKA-M with representative forest stands. Simulation experiments with three different management scenarios showed that the short to mid-term effects of climatic change in terms of species composition were not as severe as expected. However, the comparison of different diversity measures indicates a decrease in the species diversity in contrast to an increase in habitat diversity under climate warming. Furthermore, a decrease in productivity and groundwater recharge was simulated under the climate change scenario.The regional impact assessment corroborated the high sensitivity of natural forests in the region to the projected climatic change and it underlined the importance of adaptive management strategies to help forestry to cope with climatic change.     

乌饭树的地理分布及潜在分布区分析

利用Bioclim模型,结合354个乌饭树地理分布点以及19个气候因子,对乌饭树在我国的潜在分布区和适宜等级进行了预测。结果表明:潜在分布区的预测结果与实际分布点吻合较好,其适生区(适宜度≥5%)主要为广西、广东、福建、浙江、江西东南部、湖南西部及贵州东部等地区;湖南、江西南部与广东、广西北部交界处的南岭地区及福建中部山地等地区为乌饭树的最适生区(≥20%)。ROC曲线的AUC值为0.819,表明预测结果很准确。极端低温、最干季降雨量、极端高温、温差是影响乌饭树分布的主要水热因子,最适宜区气候参数为:年平均温为14.7—23℃,适宜越冬的年极端低温为-3.1—13.4℃,年降雨量为948.8—1988.4mm,最干季降雨量为54.6—201mm,分布的最适宜海拔范围为3—806m之间。气候变暖将使得乌饭树潜在最适分布区面积显著缩小,现有最适生境位置发生改变。     

Evaluating the effect of drier and warmer conditions on water use by Quercus pyrenaica

Under climate change, severe and recurrent droughts can reduce forest production and cause widespread tree dieback. The response of different vegetation types to climate change can vary greatly and, therefore, must be individually assessed. This study was carried out in a Mediterranean oak forest (Quercus pyrenaica) subject to seasonal summer drought. To examine the response of the forest to the climate conditions predicted under climate change, a Soil–Vegetation–Atmosphere Transfer model [SPA, Williams, M., Rastetter, E.B., Fernandes, D.N., Goulden, M.L., Wofsy, S.C., Shaver, G.R., Melillo, J.M., Munger, J.W., Fan, S.M., Nadelhoffer, K.J. 1996. Modelling the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum in a Quercus–Acer stand at Harvard Forest: the regulation of stomatal conductance by light, nitrogen and soil/plant hydraulic properties. Plant, Cell, Environment 19, 911–927] was used. The model was parameterized using mostly local measurements (independent of the verification data) and tested against in situ sap flow measurements obtained during year 2007. The predictions of the model were broadly consistent with the observed dynamics of sap flow (the model explained 71% of the variance in daily transpiration and 75% of half-hourly sap flow), leaf water potentials and soil water content. Once the model had been validated, simulations were carried out under warmer and dryer conditions. Predicted warmer conditions (4 °C) caused a moderate increase in total simulated transpiration. Less frequent precipitation (40% longer dry periods between rainfall events) had very little effect on transpiration. In contrast, transpiration was reduced by 17% when the soil water reserves at the beginning of the summer were lower than in 2007, corresponding to those measured in a very dry year (2005). The reduction was exacerbated when changes in temperature and rainfall were also considered (up to 28% decline in transpiration). The higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (712 ppm) simulated together with climate change, did not prevent the decline in tree water use or soil water storage at the end of the summer. All scenarios caused the soil water storage to reach extremely low values at the end of the dry season (a minimum of 25 mm). It is concluded that climate change is likely to have a negative impact on tree water use and soil water resources in the study area, increasing the water deficit by as much as 30%.     

Impact of bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) disturbance on timber production and carbon sequestration in different management strategies under climate change

The likely environmental changes throughout the next century have the potential to strongly alter forest disturbance regimes which may heavily affect forest functions as well as forest management. Forest stands already poorly adapted to current environmental conditions, such as secondary Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests outside their natural range, are expected to be particularly prone to such risks. By means of a simulation study, a secondary Norway spruce forest management unit in Austria was studied under conditions of climatic change with regard to effects of bark beetle disturbance on timber production and carbon sequestration over a time period of 100 years. The modified patch model PICUS v1.41, including a submodule of bark beetle-induced tree mortality, was employed to assess four alternative management strategies: (a) Norway spruce age-class forestry, (b) Norway spruce continuous cover forestry, (c) conversion to mixed species stands, and (d) no management. Two sets of simulations were investigated, one without the consideration of biotic disturbances, the other including possible bark beetle damages. Simulations were conducted for a de-trended baseline climate (1961–1990) as well as for two transient climate change scenarios featuring a distinct increase in temperature. The main objectives were to: (i) estimate the effects of bark beetle damage on timber production and carbon (C) sequestration under climate change; (ii) assess the effects of disregarding bark beetle disturbance in the analysis.Results indicated a strong increase in bark beetle damage under climate change scenarios (up to +219% in terms of timber volume losses) compared to the baseline climate scenario. Furthermore, distinct differences were revealed between the studied management strategies, pointing at considerably lower amounts of salvage in the conversion strategy. In terms of C storage, increased biotic disturbances under climate change reduced C storage in the actively managed strategies (up to −41.0 tC ha⁻¹) over the 100-year simulation period, whereas in the unmanaged control variant some scenarios even resulted in increased C sequestration due to a stand density effect.Comparing the simulation series with and without bark beetle disturbances the main findings were: (i) forest C storage was higher in all actively managed strategies under climate change, when biotic disturbances were disregarded (up to +31.6 tC ha⁻¹ over 100 years); and (ii) in the undisturbed, unmanaged variant C sequestration was lower compared to the simulations with bark beetle disturbance (up to −69.9 tC ha⁻¹ over 100 years). The study highlights the importance of including the full range of ecosystem-specific disturbances by isolating the effect of one important agent on timber production and C sequestration.     

What the soil reveals: Potential total ecosystem C stores of the Pacific Northwest region, USA

How much organic C can a region naturally store in its ecosystems? How can this be determined, when land management has altered the vegetation of the landscape substantially? The answers may lie in the soil: this study synthesized the spatial distribution of soil properties derived from the state soils geographic database with empirical measurements of old-growth forest ecosystem C to yield a regional distribution of potential maximum total-ecosystem organic C stores. The region under consideration is 179,000 square kilometers extending from the southern Oregon border to the northern Washington border, and from the Pacific Ocean to the east side of the Cascade Mountains. Total ecosystem organic C (TEC) was measured in 16 diverse old-growth forests encompassing 35 stands and 79 pedons to a depth of 100 cm. The TEC ranged between 185 and 1200 Mg C ha⁻¹. On an average, 63% of TEC was in the vegetation, 13% in woody detritus, 3% in the forest floor, 7% in the 0–20 cm mineral soil, and 13% in 20–100 cm mineral soil. The TEC was strongly related to soil organic C (SOC) in the 0–20 cm mineral soil, yielding a monotonically increasing, curvilinear relation. To apply this relation to estimate the TEC distribution throughout the region, 211 map units of the state soils geographic database (STATSGO) were used. The SOC in the 0–20 cm mineral soil of the map units was consistent with values from previously measured pedons distributed throughout the region. Resampling of 13 second-growth forests 25 years after initial sampling indicated no regional change in mineral SOC, and supported the use of a static state soils map. The SOC spatial distribution combined with the quantitative old-growth TEC–SOC relation yielded an estimate of potential TEC storage throughout the region under the hypothetical condition of old-growth forest coverage. The area-weighted TEC was 760 Mg C ha⁻¹. This is 100 Mg C ha⁻¹ more than a previous estimate based on a coarser resolution of six physiographic provinces, and 400 Mg C ha⁻¹ more than current regional stores. The map of potential TEC may be useful in forecasting regional C dynamics and in land-management decisions related to C sequestration.