Application of modelling to determine the absence of foot-and-mouth disease in the face of a suspected incursion

AIM: To use disease modelling to inform a response team about the number of animals per herd/flock to be examined, and the start date and duration of clinical surveillance required to be confident that foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was not present on an island in New Zealand with a population of approximately 1,600 cattle, 10,000 sheep and a small number of pigs, goats and alpacas. METHODS: Because the probability of detecting clinical disease in (the) primary case(s) in larger herds and flocks was extremely low, deterministic and stochastic mathematical SLIR (susceptible, latent, infectious, recovered) models for the transmission of infection were constructed to estimate the date when clinical lesions in herds and flocks would be detected with 95% confidence. Surveillance targeted the first wave of infections following a suspect index case. RESULTS: If 70 cattle in herds of about 400 cattle were examined it was estimated it would take approximately 13 (90% stochastic range 9-19) days from first exposure before it would be possible to achieve 95% confidence for detecting clinical signs for a low-virulence virus, and 9 (7-14) days for a high-virulence virus. The duration of sufficiently accurate clinical detection was 17 (15-19) days and 13 (12-14) days for low- and high-virulence viruses, respectively. A sample of 70 sheep from flocks of >1,000 would be required to achieve clinical detection at about the same time but with a shorter period of detection than for cattle. The duration of effective detection could be increased by examining a larger sample in most sheep flocks, however the small size of many cattle herds in the study population limited the confidence of detecting group-level disease in cattle, therefore necessitating repeated herd inspections. The model suggested that group-level detection was not feasible if it was based on elevated body temperature alone because of short durations of fever in infected animals. CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Simulation modelling is a useful and powerful tool for informing ongoing surveillance activities in the face of an exotic disease incursion. Results of modelling suggested to start clinical inspection activities at 4 days and to continue regular inspection twice a week for about 35 days after the date of first exposure, to satisfy the required 95% confidence threshold of clinical detection of FMD in cattle herds and sheep flocks.     

Foreign animal disease outbreaks, the animal welfare implications for Canada: risks apparent from international experience

Any outbreak of an Office International des Epizooties List A disease, such as classical swine fever or foot and mouth disease, has severe consequences for animal welfare, livestock production, exports of animals and animal products, and the environment. The public concern with the animal welfare effects of methods of disease eradication that result in the destruction of large numbers of uninfected animals has initiated a reconsideration of disease eradication policy in Europe. In many recent List A disease epizootics, the financial cost of addressing animal welfare concerns in healthy animals has greatly exceeded the cost of stamping out disease in infected herds. In the event of a similar incursion in Canada, the number of animals subject to welfare slaughter will be far greater than the number of infected animals killed. Current national disease eradication plans in Canada do not address the animal welfare component of disease control methods.     

Representation of animal distributions in space: how geostatistical estimates impact simulation modeling of foot-and-mouth disease spread

Modeling potential disease spread in wildlife populations is important for predicting, responding to and recovering from a foreign animal disease incursion. To make spatial epidemic predictions, the target animal species of interest must first be represented in space. We conducted a series of simulation experiments to determine how estimates of the spatial distribution of white-tailed deer impact the predicted magnitude and distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks. Outbreaks were simulated using a susceptible-infected-recovered geographic automata model. The study region was a 9-county area (24 000 km(2)) of southern Texas. Methods used for creating deer distributions included dasymetric mapping, kriging and remotely sensed image analysis. The magnitudes and distributions of the predicted outbreaks were evaluated by comparing the median number of deer infected and median area affected (km(2)), respectively. The methods were further evaluated for similar predictive power by comparing the model predicted outputs with unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA) clustering. There were significant differences in the estimated number of deer in the study region, based on the geostatistical estimation procedure used (range: 385 939-768 493). There were also substantial differences in the predicted magnitude of the FMD outbreaks (range: 1 563-8 896) and land area affected (range: 56-447 km(2)) for the different estimated animal distributions. UPGMA clustering indicated there were two main groups of distributions, and one outlier. We recommend that one distribution from each of these two groups be used to model the range of possible outbreaks. Methods included in cluster 1 (such as county-level disaggregation) could be used in conjunction with any of the methods in cluster 2, which included kriging, NDVI split by ecoregion, or disaggregation at the regional level, to represent the variability in the model predicted outbreak distributions. How animal populations are represented needs to be considered in all spatial disease spread models.     

Field observations during the Bluetongue serotype 8 epidemic in 2006. II. Morbidity and mortality rate, case fatality and clinical recovery in sheep and cattle in the Netherlands

Data collected in the Netherlands during the Bluetongue serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic indicated that in outbreak cattle herds, predominantly dairy and nursing cows were clinically affected and not young stock, beef cattle, beef calves, or breeding animals. In outbreak sheep flocks, mainly ewes and - if present - rams, were clinically affected and not the lambs. Median morbidity rate in outbreak herds was 1.85 per 100 sheep-month at risk and 0.32 per 100 cattle-month at risk for sheep and cattle, respectively. The mean proportion of BT-affected animals in outbreak herds that recovered from clinical disease was approximately eight times higher for cattle compared to sheep in the Netherlands. Median mortality rate in outbreak herds was 0.5 per 100 sheep-month at risk of dying and 0 per 100 cattle-month at risk of dying for sheep and cattle, respectively. Median recovery time of both sheep and cattle that recovered from clinical disease in outbreak herds was 14 days. Median case fatality was 50% in sheep outbreak flocks and 0% in outbreak cattle herds. It is concluded that morbidity and mortality in outbreak cattle herds was very limited during the BTV-8 epidemic in the Netherlands in 2006. In outbreak sheep flocks, morbidity was limited, with exceptions for a few flocks. However, almost 50% of the clinically sick sheep died in outbreak sheep herds.     

Analysis of the risk of introduction and spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus through importation of raw pigmeat into New Zealand

AIMS: To determine the frequency with which porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus (PRRSv) would become established in a non-commercial pig herd in New Zealand due to illegal feeding of uncooked food waste containing virus-contaminated pigmeat. To determine the likelihood of a single incursion resulting in a multi-farm outbreak of the disease, and describe the spatio-temporal characteristics of such an outbreak. METHODS: A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to determine the expected annual frequency of PRRSv infection being initiated in a non-commercial pig herd as a result of inadvertent feeding of pigmeat imported from countries endemically infected with the disease. Once the likelihood of PRRSv becoming established in a single pig herd was determined, stochastic spatially explicit infectious disease modelling software was utilised to model the temporal and spatial characteristics of the resulting epidemic. RESULTS: Assuming the proportion of imported pigmeat remained at current levels, consumption patterns of pigmeat in households in New Zealand remained steady, and limited compliance with recently reintroduced regulations to prevent feeding of uncooked food waste, at least 4.3 pig herds per year were predicted to become infected with PRRSv. Simulation modelling of PRRSv epidemics related to initial infection of a non-commercial farm produced an estimate that 36% of these incursions would spread from the initial herd, and that these outbreaks would involve 93 herds on average in the first year. By increasing the estimated persistence of PRRSv infection in small herds, an average of 205 herds became infected in the first year. CONCLUSIONS: Given a mean of 4.3 infected premises per year and a 36% probability of infection spreading beyond the initial infected herd, there was a 95% likelihood of a multi-farm PRRS outbreak occurring within 3 years. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Introduction of PRRSv through importation of virus-contaminated pigmeat presents a high risk for establishment of the disease in the pig industry in New Zealand.     

Analysis of the risk of introduction and spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus through importation of raw pigmeat into New Zealand

AIMS: To determine the frequency with which porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus (PRRSv) would become established in a non-commercial pig herd in New Zealand due to illegal feeding of uncooked food waste containing virus-contaminated pigmeat. To determine the likelihood of a single incursion resulting in a multi-farm outbreak of the disease, and describe the spatio-temporal characteristics of such an outbreak.

METHODS: A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to determine the expected annual frequency of PRRSv infection being initiated in a non-commercial pig herd as a result of inadvertent feeding of pigmeat imported from countries endemically infected with the disease. Once the likelihood of PRRSv becoming established in a single pig herd was determined, stochastic spatially explicit infectious disease modelling software was utilised to model the temporal and spatial characteristics of the resulting epidemic.

RESULTS: Assuming the proportion of imported pigmeat remained at current levels, consumption patterns of pigmeat in households in New Zealand remained steady, and limited compliance with recently reintroduced regulations to prevent feeding of uncooked food waste, at least 4.3 pig herds per year were predicted to become infected with PRRSv. Simulation modelling of PRRSv epidemics related to initial infection of a non-commercial farm produced an estimate that 36% of these incursions would spread from the initial herd, and that these outbreaks would involve 93 herds on average in the first year. By increasing the estimated persistence of PRRSv infection in small herds, an average of 205 herds became infected in the first year.

CONCLUSIONS: Given a mean of 4.3 infected premises per year and a 36% probability of infection spreading beyond the initial infected herd, there was a 95% likelihood of a multi-farm PRRS outbreak occurring within 3 years.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Introduction of PRRSv through importation of virus-contaminated pigmeat presents a high risk for establishment of the disease in the pig industry in New Zealand.     

Outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Northern Benin during the 1990-1991 dry season

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease damaged the North-Benin during the 1990-1991 dry season (November to May). Coming from outside the Benin, it spread out very quickly in the country essentially because of trans-humant herds. No measures have been taken to limit this sickness which is endemic and which regularly exhibits outbreaks in Benin. Antibodies to types A, O and SAT2 of the foot-and-mouth disease virus were detected in the sera during this outbreak.     

Results of epidemic simulation modeling to evaluate strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a region of California. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards in Fresno, Kings, andTulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics of FMD for specified control scenarios that included a baseline eradication strategy mandated by USDA and supplemental control strategies of slaughter or vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and expansion of infected and surveillance zones. RESULTS: Median number of herds affected varied from 1 to 385 (17% of all herds), depending on type of index herd and delay in diagnosis of FMD. Percentage of herds infected decreased from that of the baseline eradication strategy by expanding the designated infected area from 10 to 20 km (48%), vaccinating within a 50-km radius of an infected herd (41%), slaughtering the 10 highest-risk herds for each infected herd (39%), and slaughtering all animals within 5 km of an infected herd (24%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results for the model provided a means of assessing the relative merits of potential strategies for control and eradication of FMD should it enter the US livestock population. For the study region, preemptive slaughter of highest-risk herds and vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of an infected herd consistently decreased size and duration of an epidemic, compared with the baseline eradication strategy.     

Investigation of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in vaccinated dairy cattle in Thailand

SUMMARY An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease that spread between two related vaccinated dairy herds was investigated. Although the cattle were of similar vaccination status, in one herd there was high morbidity, whereas in the other there was considerably lower morbidity. The relationship between the vaccine virus and the outbreak virus was expressed as an r value determined by the two-dimensional neutralisation test. Bovine serum homologous to the vaccine virus indicated a close antigenic relationship between the vaccine virus and the outbreak virus (r = 0.61). The source of the outbreak virus was not determined. The investigation suggested a requirement for close contact between stock for foot-and-mouth disease to spread in a tropical environment, in contrast to the capacity of the disease to spread considerable distances by aerosol transmission in temperate climates.     

The Extent and Impact of Sheep Pox and Goat Pox in the State of Maharashtra,India

A survey of sheep and goat producers in the state of Maharashtra, India, was undertaken to ascertain the extent and economic impact of sheep pox and goat pox (SGP). One thousand one hundred and sixteen owners were interviewed. Eighty owners (7.2%) reported that they had experienced an outbreak of the disease in the previous 6 years. The results showed that, while producers ranked SGP below other infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease, rinderpest and enterotoxaemia, when SGP occurred it had a major impact, with average morbidity and mortality rates of 63.5% and 49.5%, respectively. Modelling studies suggested it would take about 6 years for a flock or herd to recover from an outbreak, with average annual losses in income of 30–43%, depending on flock type and the owner's actions. Statewide, it is estimated that around 5000 flocks and herds are affected by SGP annually in Maharashtra, costing up to INR 107.5 million. The highest losses occurred in the Aurangabad region.     

An extended state-transition model for foot-and-mouth disease epidemics in France

The dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease epidemics in France was examined through simulations based on an extended state-transition model. Contagion modelling depended on specific parameters: the so-called dissemination rates. Estimation of these parameters relied on a specific discrete-event simulation model. We were able to address the problem of the hidden spread of the epidemic, before the first outbreak is diagnosed. Furthermore, we took into account the silent development of the disease in affected herds before the diagnosis. The effect of control measures such as the active search for secondary outbreaks could thus be studied. We used the model to compare the development of FMD epidemics in two very different French regions and for different control strategies implemented by the animal-health authorities. These strategies gave similar results in a low herd density area, whereas in a high herd density area, the slaughter of contact herds greatly improved the stamping-out strategy. Finally, key parameters of the model were detected through a sensitivity analysis.     

Descriptive summary of an outbreak of porcine post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS ) in New Zealand

CASE HISTORY: Investigations were conducted to determine the cause of an acute, multi-farm outbreak of porcine respiratory disease that included diarrhoea and subsequent loss of body condition in affected pigs. A definition for post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) including both clinical and pathological features, previously developed for the pig industry in New Zealand, was applied to the current outbreak. In addition to self-reporting by owners of affected farms, local veterinarians, disease and epidemiology consultants, and animal health officials from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) were involved in conducting farm visits and submission of diagnostic specimens. CLINICAL FINDINGS AND DIAGNOSIS: Pathogens known to be endemic in the pig industry in New Zealand as well as likely exotic diseases were excluded as causative agents of the outbreak. Clinical signs including dyspnoea, diarrhoea, and rapid loss of body condition were consistent with the New Zealand case definition for PMWS. Interstitial pneumonia, pulmonary oedema, generalised lymph-node enlargement, and presence of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) inclusion bodies were consistently identified in affected pigs. Classical swine fever virus (CSFv), Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv), and Influenza virus were ruled out, using molecular and traditional virological techniques. Spread of the disease between farms was hypothesised to be facilitated by locally migrating flocks of black-backed seagulls. The original source of the disease incursion was not identified. DIAGNOSIS: Based on the consistent presence of circovirus-associated lesions in lymphoid tissues in combination with generalised enlargement of lymph nodes, histiocytic interstitial pneumonia, clinical wasting, and poor response to antibiotic therapy, a diagnosis of PMWS was made. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: PMWS should be considered in the differential diagnoses of sudden onset of respiratory dyspnoea, diarrhoea, and rapid loss of body condition in young pigs in New Zealand pig herds.     

Maintaining a vigilance for foreign animal diseases.

The incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the United Kingdom in February 2001 served as a wakeup call for North American agriculture. As the livestock health crisis in the United Kingdom progressed, it became increasingly evident that the United States, Canada, and Mexico were also susceptible to an incursion of a foreign animal disease. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent anthrax mailings reaffirmed the fact that the United States is vulnerable to an infectious assault, regardless of whether it is intentional or accidental.     

The Potential Economic Impact of an Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Canada

The possibility of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease is of concern to Canada's livestock industry due to the resulting economic consequences. The primary economic impact of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak would arise from the trade embargo placed on Canadian exports of animals and animal products to countries free of the disease. Agriculture Canada's Food and Agriculture Regional Model was used to estimate the economic impact of such a trade embargo. Two scenarios, a small and large outbreak, were simulated over a five year period (1986-90). The results indicate that even a small outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease would have serious economic consequences for the livestock sector with farm cash receipts declining by $2 billion. The largest impact would be on the pork sector followed by the beef sector.     

The impact of seasonal variability in wildlife populations on the predicted spread of foot and mouth disease

Modeling potential disease spread in wildlife populations is important for predicting, responding to and recovering from a foreign animal disease incursion such as foot and mouth disease (FMD). We conducted a series of simulation experiments to determine how seasonal estimates of the spatial distribution of white-tailed deer impact the predicted magnitude and distribution of potential FMD outbreaks. Outbreaks were simulated in a study area comprising two distinct ecoregions in South Texas, USA, using a susceptible-latent-infectious-resistant geographic automata model (Sirca). Seasonal deer distributions were estimated by spatial autoregressive lag models and the normalized difference vegetation index. Significant (P < 0.0001) differences in both the median predicted number of deer infected and number of herds infected were found both between seasons and between ecoregions. Larger outbreaks occurred in winter within the higher deer-density ecoregion, whereas larger outbreaks occurred in summer and fall within the lower deer-density ecoregion. Results of this simulation study suggest that the outcome of an FMD incursion in a population of wildlife would depend on the density of the population infected and when during the year the incursion occurs. It is likely that such effects would be seen for FMD incursions in other regions and countries, and for other diseases, in cases in which a potential wildlife reservoir exists. Study findings indicate that the design of a mitigation strategy needs to take into account population and seasonal characteristics.     

Descriptive summary of an outbreak of porcine post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) in New Zealand

CASE HISTORY: Investigations were conducted to determine the cause of an acute, multi-farm outbreak of porcine respiratory disease that included diarrhoea and subsequent loss of body condition in affected pigs. A definition for post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) including both clinical and pathological features, previously developed for the pig industry in New Zealand, was applied to the current outbreak. In addition to self-reporting by owners of affected farms, local veterinarians, disease and epidemiology consultants, and animal health officials from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) were involved in conducting farm visits and submission of diagnostic specimens.

CLINICAL FINDINGS AND DIAGNOSIS: Pathogens known to be endemic in the pig industry in New Zealand as well as likely exotic diseases were excluded as causative agents of the outbreak. Clinical signs including dyspnoea, diarrhoea, and rapid loss of body condition were consistent with the New Zealand case definition for PMWS. Interstitial pneumonia, pulmonary oedema, generalised lymph-node enlargement, and presence of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) inclusion bodies were consistently identified in affected pigs. Classical swine fever virus (CSFv), Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv), and Influenza virus were ruled out, using molecular and traditional virological techniques. Spread of the disease between farms was hypothesised to be facilitated by locally migrating flocks of black-backed seagulls. The original source of the disease incursion was not identified.

DIAGNOSIS: Based on the consistent presence of circovirusassociated lesions in lymphoid tissues in combination with generalised enlargement of lymph nodes, histiocytic interstitial pneumonia, clinical wasting, and poor response to antibiotic therapy, a diagnosis of PMWS was made.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: PMWS should be considered in the differential diagnoses of sudden onset of respiratory dyspnoea, diarrhoea, and rapid loss of body condition in young pigs in New Zealand pig herds.     

Predictions for the timing and use of culling or vaccination during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

First-fortnight incidence (FFI) is a modelling parameter that can be used to predict both the prevalence and duration of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic at regional and national levels. With an indication of how long an epidemic may last by the end of week two, it becomes possible to estimate whether vaccination would be economically viable from the start of an epidemic. Where FFI indicates that an epidemic is unlikely to last for as long as an export ban on agricultural produce, it may be inappropriate to implement a policy of 'vaccination to live'. Alternatively where FFI indicates that an epidemic will equal or exceed the ban length, then the benefits of vaccination should be considered at an early stage, during or after the first fortnight. Since blanket vaccination of the national or regional herds and flocks would be both costly and heighten the risk of producing carrier animals, targetting vaccination through risk assessment becomes useful.     

The potential role of wild and feral animals as reservoirs of foot-and-mouth disease

We investigated the potential role of feral pigs and wild deer as FMD reservoirs with a susceptible-latent-infected-recovered geographic-automata model, using spatially referenced data from southern Texas, USA. An uncontrolled FMD outbreak initiated in feral pigs and in wild deer might infect up to 698 (90% prediction interval 181, 1387) and 1557 (823, 2118) cattle and affect an area of 166 km(2) (53, 306) and 455 km(2) (301, 588), respectively. The predicted spread of FMD virus infection was influenced by assumptions we made regarding the number of incursion sites and the number of neighborhood interactions between herds. Our approach explicitly incorporates the spatial relationships between domesticated and non-domesticated animal populations, providing a new framework to explore the impacts, costs, and strategies for the control of foreign animal diseases with a potential wildlife reservoir.     

Early history of bovine brucellosis eradication in Australia

The first Australian bovine brucellosis eradication campaign on a state-wide basis was initiated and established in Tasmania. The procedures involved in drawing up a suitable scheme together with a summary of the difficulties encountered in setting up and operating the scheme are described, leading to the successful eradication of brucellosis from Tasmania. Our observations that milk was not a major factor in the transmission of brucellosis infection from cattle to man are recorded. Recognition is accorded to veterinarians, some eminent in the profession, who, in the absence of Australian research into the disease, gave freely of their advice in helping to pioneer the eradication program. Within one year of commencing the scheme 4 herds had been accredited; by 3 years 85 herds had been accredited.     

Herd demographics correlated with the spatial distribution of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Buenos Aires province, Argentina

During a recent foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Argentina, cattle herds affected in 2001 were located mainly (69%) in Buenos Aires province. The densities of outbreaks (no. of outbreaks per km²) and cattle-demographic variables in the province were estimated using a geographical information system and kernel function. Before the epidemic officially was recognized, the density of outbreaks was correlated (r_sp = 0.28–0.47) with the geographic distribution of small (≤100 cattle), dairy and fattening herds. During the mass-vaccination campaign to control the epidemic (April–July), the density of outbreaks was most strongly correlated (r_sp = 0.20–0.25) with the distribution of large (>500 cattle) and breeding herds. After the end of the mass-vaccination campaign, large herds and number of cows were most strongly correlated (r_sp = 0.16–0.26) with outbreak density. These relationships might indicate that: (1) the disease spread more rapidly or was more easily detected in intensive production systems at the beginning of the epidemic; (2) vaccination and other control methods applied were less effective in large, semi-intensive production systems; (3) incomplete vaccine protection was responsible for herd outbreaks that occurred after the end of the mass-vaccination campaign.