基于遥感的江苏省城市规模分布定量化研究

基于江苏省1979、1985、1995和2000年的遥感影像,提取了13个地级市的城市用地面积数据,以此为依据,采用城市首位度、分维数、帕雷托指数、城市规模基尼系数等对江苏省的城市规模分布及其变化进行了分区研究。结果显示,江苏省13个城市规模分布符合位序规模法则,拟合曲线的判定系数都在0.884以上;江苏省首位城市发展较强,大规模城市发展迅速,城市规模分布分散,但有微弱的集中趋势;经分析分维数D、不平衡指数可得,江苏省城市的用地规模分布不均衡且这种不均衡趋于增强,规模增长速度趋于下降;江苏省城市建成区用地的位序-规模曲线呈现出平行向前推进的特点。这些研究结果可为预测江苏省13个城市未来建成区用地规模和城市体系的未来发展提供科学依据。     

Urban growth and decline: San Jose and St. Louis in the 1960's

The population changes in San Jose and St. Louis between 1960 and 1970 exemplify the two broad trends-urban formation followed by metropolitan dispersal-that have shaped 20th-century urbanization in this country. The fact that these developmental trends were expressed through demographic processes found to be common to both cities, despite their contrasting recent experiences, suggests that generalizations can be made about the complex forces underlying urbanization. The formation of metropolitan San Jose's population parallels the traditional process whereby a region's growth comes to be focused, through migration, on a few urban centers. The modern variant is not characterized by a rural-to-urban shift, however, but by migration flows among urban areas, and particularly to a few most-favored areas, such as San Jose. Migratory growth has left a powerful demographic legacy in San Jose. This legacy is also instructive for studying the migratory formation of any new city's population. Its demographic character determines its demographic destiny, whose likely variations we can now perceive with some clarity. San Jose's population is both youthful and chronically migratory. The presence of many prospective parents and relatively few elderly persons lays a broad foundation for the population's continued growth through natural increase, despite the national downturn in fertility (14). Even without further net in-migration, the population of new cities like San Jose would continue to grow at an above-average rate. The hypermobility of San Jose's population (that is, its propensity for further migration) also has an important bearing on the future. With about 21 migrants entering and 17 departing each year per hundred residents, San Jose's rapid migratory growth rests (as it would in other new cities) on a precarious arithmetic balance. A significant dip in local employment growth could easily reduce net migration to a small fraction of its present high level. Even a slight decline would result in the inflow's no longer exceeding the high volume of outflow. Demographic analysis alone cannot foresee such an employment downturn, but if it happened, the migratory downturn probably would be swift. Hypermobility also works the other way; and given San Jose's focal position in California's expanding metropolitan structure (with its virtually endless supply of migratory growth), net migration could resume with equal swiftness. The outward dispersal of population from central cities that has occurred in St. Louis has been accelerating in other cities as well, and will remain a prominent feature of U.S. urban growth. It may seem paradoxical that in a period noted for something called "urban growth" there are so many declining central cities, but that is merely one indication that the "central city" no longer is the real city, except in name. Real city or not, the central city can expect to come into political conflict with other jurisdictions created in the process of dispersion. In cities like St. Louis, where population is dispersing but old political boundaries are fixed, the problems of the central city are separated from the resources in the suburbs. Transitional problems associated with persistent and severe outmigration also arise: accumulation of disadvantaged citizens, declining demand for city housing, and a diminished replacement capacity in the population. Carried far enough, the last of these problems results in natural decrease, and thereafter the population's decline acquires its own dynamic. As noted earlier, the white population in St. Louis has reached this point: The number of persons dying now exceeds the number being born. For two reasons, this natural decrease can do little other than intensify. First, a substantial proportion of whites are either entering or already within the high-mortality age brackets.The white population's crude death rate therefore will continue to rise. Second, prospective parents are becoming scarce among St. Louis's whites, and the national evidence that parents in general will choose to have smaller families continues to mount. The white population's crude birth rate is therefore likely to fall, barring a dramatic increase in fertility or a strong and sustained inflow of childbearing families. Nor is St. Louis's black population likely to grow substantially. It is expanding steadily through natural increase, but black migration out of the city is more than enough to cancel that increase.     

建设环保型“两化”大庆市的几点思考

作为典型的资源型城市,大庆市如何克服和解决多年来由于资源的开采造成的生态系统受损的问题,如何进行环境保护,如何向现代化城市进一步发展,是新时期大庆市理论和实践工作者需要深入研究的课题。针对大庆市的特点,从环境保护的角度,探讨了新时期对现代化国际化城市可持续发展的要求,提出了现代化国际化城市可持续发展在环境保护方面应注意的问题,深入分析了大庆市可持续发展的环境保护中面临的问题,提出了推进环保型"两化"大庆市的应对策略。     

新疆城市等级规模结构演化研究

以新疆1988～2009年各个城市的非农业人口为依据,对新疆的城市等级规模给予分析,发现新疆城市首位优势明显,2003年以前两城市指数、四城市指数以及十一城市指数相对稳定,但高于理想值,2003年以后各个城市值相对下降,首位优势相对下降。城市规模的分形理论的研究发现,分维值D不断增大,从1988年的0.889 3增长为2009年的1.043 4,说明各城市之间的规模趋向均衡,首位城市的垄断地位有所减弱。空间相互作用强度的计算得出,乌鲁木齐与其他城市的相互作用最强,确立了乌鲁木齐市作为新疆城市群在空间上和功能上的核心地位。     

基于适度人口容量的新型城镇化发展分析——以宁夏五个地级市为例

通过构建经济承载力、土地承载力、可供水资源承载力、建设用地承载力与生态环境承载力人口容量模型来综合测度研究区五市理论城镇化发展水平,从而与实际城镇化发展水平进行对比分析,结果表明：（1）银川市与石嘴山市实际城镇化发展水平大于理论城镇化发展水平,且城市人口潜力指数大,具有吸纳外来人口的能力;（2）吴忠市、中卫市和固原市实际城镇化水平小于理论城镇化水平,城镇化发展水平偏低,且人口潜力指数较小,不具备吸纳外来人口的能力。以此为依据,从而为不同人口密度等级区新型城镇化发展提出相应的对策与建议：（1）对于人口极密集区与密集区,一方面应加强中心城市的辐射带动能力,另一方面加强政府引导作用,推动人口市民化进程与城市空间协调发展;（2）对于人口中等区,一方面,加强中心城市的拉力作用,另一方面,创造农村推力作用,着力解决城镇化过程中流动人口的“后顾之忧”;（3）对于人口稀少与极稀区,一方面应鼓励就地城镇化,另一方面要打破城乡二元结构,促进本区域城镇化发展水平。     

The size, scale, and shape of cities

Despite a century of effort, our understanding of how cities evolve is still woefully inadequate. Recent research, however, suggests that cities are complex systems that mainly grow from the bottom up, their size and shape following well-defined scaling laws that result from intense competition for space. An integrated theory of how cities evolve, linking urban economics and transportation behavior to developments in network science, allometric growth, and fractal geometry, is being slowly developed. This science provides new insights into the resource limits facing cities in terms of the meaning of density, compactness, and sprawl, and related questions of sustainability. It has the potential to enrich current approaches to city planning and replace traditional top-down strategies with realistic city plans that benefit all city dwellers.     

武夷山酒店业结构优化研究

酒店业结构的合理性是衡量一个地区酒店业发展状况的重要指标。从研究区域看,多数学者致力于对一线大城市的研究,较少涉及中小城市及风景名胜区酒店业的结构研究。武夷山市为世界文化与自然遗产地,全市人口23万人,旅游总收入占GDP超过50%,特别是12平方公里的国家级旅游度假区内,酒店高度密集,拥有近200家各类酒店。武夷山酒店业存在供给结构失衡、客源单一、空间分布不合理等诸多问题。武夷山应适当增加中、高档次饭店比例,降低低档次饭店的整体规模。酒店可适当增加会议设施投入,提高接待能力。     

吉林市个人住房消费信贷中存在的问题研究

随着吉林市经济的不断发展,人民收入水平的不断提高,对生活的质量有了更高的要求,房屋成了人们首要改善的东西.但是,根据吉林市人民收入水平,能够一次性付清房款的人还是少数,对于更多的市民来说,要想拥有一套自己的住房的梦想只能通过贷款来实现.个人住房消费性贷款是帮助有能力的新青年解决婚房问题及有条件的农村居民移居城市的住房问题的重要途径.它与吉林市城市化建设息息相关,是关乎吉林市民生的重要问题.     

临沂市城市土地集约利用评价研究

临沂市人多地少,进行城市土地集约利用评价,对进一步促进其土地集约利用意义重大。在分析临沂市城市土地利用存在问题的基础上,结合土地利用的各项指标数据,选取相应的评价指标体系,对山东省的济南、青岛、日照、东营、菏泽和临沂市6个城市的用地集约程度进行定量化对比评价分析。     

兰州市滨河路植物造景浅析

园林景观设计时,植物造景更能满足园林空间构成,艺术构图的需要,是园林景观生命的象征。从植物造景的概念出发,探讨了现代城市园林景观设计中植物造景的应用,对兰州市滨河路植物造景实例进行了总结分析,并提出植物造景与生态保护相结合,可使有限的城市绿地取得最大效益。     

宿州市城市建成区绿地系统综合评价研究

为充分发挥宿州市城市绿地系统的生态功能，探究宿州市城市绿地系统质量。以安徽省宿州市建成区为例，将城市绿地空间结构与城市绿地综合效益相结合构建评价体系，运用综合评价法和层次分析法对宿州市建成区绿地系统进行综合评价和社会效益评估，估算其经济效益和生态效益价值。结果显示：宿州市建成区绿地系统的综合评价的值为0.665，说明宿州市建成区绿地系统建设整体水平处于Ⅱ级，从综合评价值来看，规划定量＞社会效益＞景观格局＞经济效益＞生态效益，说明建成区规划定量在城市绿地系统中发挥着重要作用，建成区绿化存在着很大的潜力。研究结果可补充宿州市城市绿地系统综合评价体系，为研究同类型城市绿地系统提升提供借鉴。     

湖北省不同规模城市外来人口分布研究——基于成本收益的分析方法

随着湖北城镇率水平逐年提高,外来人口迁入省内地级以上城市逐渐增加,表现在超大城市和特大城市常住人口超过户籍人口,而中等城市和小城市则是户籍人口超过常住人口,然而湖北超大城市和特大城市数量少,使外来人口过于集中在少数超大和特大城市。通过对湖北省不同类型城市生活的成本收益比较,分析外来人口偏爱超大城市和特大城市而不是中等城市或小城市的原因,从而为探索农民工在不同类型城市的市民化提供可行路径。     

河南省实现产业集聚和人口集中的现状、问题及对策——基于商丘、周口、平顶山市的调研

当前,在中原经济区规划方案已经出台,河南各地市产业集聚区主导产业基本确立、土地利用相对节约、人口流动相对有序;但仍有不少问题需要尽快解决。主要体现在:集聚区内龙头企业带动能力不强、缺乏自主创新品牌、融资渠道不畅、政府服务平台建设迟滞、土地利用密度不够、人口迁移成本过高等方面。要解决这些问题,必须加强公共服务信息平台建设,实现信息共享、资源统一配置;尽快培育龙头、加快研发、严格规划、合理引导;引导农村人口向县城及中心城市转移、进一步放开户籍管理、推进城乡一体化的社会保障制度建设等。     

中国不同行政级别城市建成区面积扩展对其绿地扩张影响的实证分析

不同城市中建成区、建成区绿地面积的扩张存在差异,中国采用的行政区划使其差异更加明显。以中国1996-2014年县级及以上城市建成区面积、建成区绿地面积的面板数据为基础,将不同行政级别城市分组后,运用计量分析、变异系数,定量化分析其影响,测算得出城市组间影响力大小、组内影响力差异及组间影响力的逐年变化,这对于指导不同行政等级城市的绿地发展,统筹全国城市绿地建设具一定意义。实证分析表明,1我国直辖市、副省级市、地级市、县级市组间建成区绿地面积、建成区面积扩张之间存在长期均衡关系;2城市组间建成区每扩展1%,拉动直辖市建成区绿地扩张1.58%、副省级市1.19%、地级市1.47%、县级市1.42%;3城市组内影响力差异属县级市最大、副省级市最小、直辖市较小,地级市偏大;4城市组间建成区对于建成区绿地扩张的影响力度均逐年增加。     

The energetic cost of climbing in primates

Primates are exceptional among mammals for their climbing abilities and arboreal lifestyles. Here we show that small primates (less than 0.5 kilogram) consume the same amount of mass-specific energy (COTTOT) whether climbing or walking a given distance. COTTOT decreases with increasing body size for walking but does not change for climbing. This divergence of COTTOT is likely due to fundamental differences in the biomechanical determinants of the costs of climbing versus walking. These results have important implications for understanding the origins of primates, suggesting that small early primates may have been able to move into a novel arboreal niche without increasing metabolic costs.     

我国城镇化过程中农村劳动力及人口转移的经济行为分析

从经济理性出发,分析了我国城镇化过程中劳动力及人口转移的经济决策行为。在目前条件下,我国只有劳动力的“两栖”转移,缺乏人口的彻底转移,这是转移者对其成本效益权衡的结果。因此必须考虑降低人口彻底转移的机会成本,从而推动人口城镇化的最终实现。     

城市居住区绿化规划设计探讨——以宿迁市几大典型住宅区为例

通过对宿迁市六大典型住宅区的绿化实况调查,指出宿迁市在居住区绿化水平上存在的不足,针对在植物配置上存在的问题,运用生态园林的原理,从生态设计和景观设计来探讨宿迁市居住区绿化规划设计的新思路,为其他城市居住区的绿化规划设计提供参考。     

发展小城镇建设促进我国农村经济发展

小城镇以其特有的功能和作用在我国农村经济发展中占有重要地位.改革开放以来,我国农村的小城镇建设取得了巨大的成就,但也存在着很多问题,如规模较小、布局不合理、社会保障体系不完善、缺乏必要的产业支撑等.从小城镇的概念、功能和作用入手,对我国农村在小城镇发展过程中存在的诸多问题进行分析,并提出相应的对策.     

福建省城市土地集约利用评价

解决城市土地空置和低效利用根本途径是内部挖潜,提高土地集约利用。该文从福建省土地利用的现状分析入手,总结了城市土地利用的基本特征及存在问题,在此基础上通过层次分析法,综合评价福建省九个城市土地集约利用水平,并利用ARCGIS实现集约水平的空间差异展布。研究结果表明：福建省城市土地集约利用呈阶梯状分布,靠近沿海的南部城市厦门土地集约利用程度最高,福州市次之,漳州市、三明市、龙岩市、莆田市土地集约利用程度处于中度利用水平,南平市、宁德市土地集约利用水平低。文章最后给出造成土地集约利用差异的原因,以期为实现城市规模有序扩张和城市可持续发展提供决策支持。     

基于分形理论的山地河谷地区县域城镇体系研究——以新疆新源县为例

[目的]以典型的山地河谷地区县域城镇体系-新疆新源县城镇体系为例,对其规模结构、空间分布进行研究.[方法]运用分形理论.[结果]该区域城镇体系具有分形特征;城镇等级规模结构比较松散,呈明显的首位分布,中间层次城镇缺失;城镇空间结构由于受到山地河谷地形的影响,城镇呈明显的线状分布,城镇间联系不紧密,空间相互作用强度较弱.[结论]对新源县域城镇体系建设提出了建议,这将为进一步确定合理的村镇体系提供参考,有利于村镇经济的发展.