Future potential impacts of climate change on agricultural watershed hydrology and the adaptation strategy of paddy rice irrigation reservoir by release control

This study is to assess the climate change impact on the temporal variation of paddy rice irrigation reservoir water level from the future evaluated watershed inflow, and to suggest an adaptation method of the future reservoir water level management for stable water supply of paddy irrigation demands. A 366.5 km² watershed including two irrigation reservoirs located in the upper middle part of South Korea was adopted. For the future evaluation, the SLURP model was set up using 9 years daily reservoir water level and streamflow records at the watershed outlet. The average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies for calibration and validation were 0.69 and 0.65, respectively. For the future climate condition, the NIES MIROC3.2 hires data by SRES A1B and B1 scenarios of the IPCC was adopted. The future data were downscaled by applying Change Factor statistical method through bias-correction using 30 years past weather data. The results of future impact showed that the future reservoir storages of autumn and winter season after completion of irrigation period decreased for 2080s A1B scenario. Considering the future decrease of summer and autumn reservoir inflows, the reservoir operation has to be more conservative for preparing the water supply of paddy irrigation, and there should be a more prudent decision making for the reservoir release by storm events. Therefore, as the future adaptation strategy, the control of reservoir release by decreasing in August and September could secure the reservoir water level in autumn and winter season by reaching the water level to almost 100% like the present reservoir water level management.     

Numerical assessments of the impacts of climate change on regional groundwater systems in a paddy-dominated alluvial fan

Quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on groundwater levels is important for sustainable groundwater use. This study examined the Tedori River alluvial fan in Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, where paddy fields occupy 45 % of the total area. A regional groundwater flow model simulated future groundwater levels in response to 38 climate change projections generated for each of three GCMs, using three GHG emission scenarios with the ELPIS-JP datasets. The numerical groundwater flow model consisted of a 1-D unsaturated water flow model (HYDRUS-1D) for estimating groundwater recharge and a 3-D groundwater flow model (MODFLOW). Variable parameters consisted of daily air temperature, precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, which influence groundwater through infiltration, evapotranspiration, snowfall, and snowmelt. Groundwater levels had both decreasing and increasing trends, depending on climate change. There were more decreasing than increasing trends, and the maximum groundwater drawdown during 2010–2090 was ~1 m. Groundwater level was most sensitive to change in rate of precipitation during the non-irrigation period. Variations of relatively low-intensity precipitation days, when daily precipitation was <10 mm, had an effect on groundwater level. These results contribute to development of adaptive and sustainable groundwater managements (e.g. land use management and pumping strategies) in the future.     

Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil

Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture‐based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by an agro‐meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availability index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963–2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios in terms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013–2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043–2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation in temperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual production under future climate scenarios was predicted to increase by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central‐west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with larger increases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario.     

Assessment of the occurrence of climate change and its effects on planting date and growth duration of rainfed wheat in the western and northwestern regions of Iran

In this study, the effect of climate change on planting date and growth duration of rainfed wheat in the west and northwest parts of Iran has been investigated. The occurrence of climate change in the region was first evaluated for the base period (1992–2018) using two nonparametric tests of Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope estimator. Then, the climatic parameters of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were simulated under RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2019–2039 based on downscaled output data of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) using LARS WG software. The growth period was obtained using a linear multiple regression model, which was selected based on R-square and accounted for 87% of its total variation. The results predicted that the average annual temperature will increase by 2 °C, while the average annual precipitation will increase by 30% by the end of 2039. Planting dates were determined based on two indices combining temperature and precipitation for the base and future periods. The results showed that climate change effects at the 2039 horizon will shorten by 18 days the wheat growth period and the appropriate planting time for rainfed wheat will be reduced by 2–19 days.

     

Hydrologic impact of climate change with adaptation of vegetation community in a forest-dominant watershed

This study evaluated the impact on watershed hydrology by predicting future forest community change under a climate change scenario. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected and applied to Chungju dam watershed (6,642 km²) of South Korea. The SWAT was calibrated and validated for 6 years (1998–2003) using the daily streamflow data from three locations. For the future evaluation of forest community and hydrology, the MIROC3.2 HiRes monthly climate data were adopted. The future data were corrected using 30 years (1977–2006, baseline period) of measured weather data, and they were daily downscaled by the Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator statistical method. To predict the future forest vegetation cover, the baseline forest community was modeled by a multinomial LOGIT model using variables of baseline precipitation, temperature, elevation, degree of base saturation, and soil organic matter, and the future forest community was predicted using the future precipitation and temperature scenario. The future temperature increase of 4.8 °C by 2080s (2070–2099) led to prediction of 30.8 % decrease of mixed forest and 75.8 % increase of coniferous forest compared to the baseline forest community. For the baseline evapotranspiration (ET) of 491.5 mm/year, the 2080s ET under the forest community change was 591.1 mm/year, whereas it was 551.8 mm/year with the remaining forest community stationary. The different ET results considering the future forest community clearly affected the groundwater recharge and streamflow in sequence.     

Spectral measures and mixed models as valuable tools for investigating controls on land surface phenology in high arctic Greenland

Background  

Changes in land surface phenology are of major importance to the understanding of the impact of recent and future climate changes in the Arctic. This paper presents an extensive study from Zackenberg Ecological Research Operations (ZERO) where snow melt, climate and growing season characteristics of six major high arctic vegetation types has been monitored during 1999 to 2005. We investigate the growth dynamics for dry, mesic and wet types using hand held measurements of far red normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI-FR) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM).     

Evaluation of water resources by snow storage using water balance and tank model method in the Tedori River basin of Japan

We evaluate water resources as the difference between the observed and virtual discharges, defined as discharge without snow storage during the snowfall and snowmelt season, in the Tedori River basin of Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan. The virtual discharge was estimated using the Tank model, in which parameters of calculated discharge were determined when the predictions were consistent with the observed discharges except for those during snowfall and snowmelt periods. Precipitation increase factors, i.e., the ratio of precipitation in the basin to that of a Kanazawa site, ranged from 1.46 to 2.00 with an average of 1.68. Water resources by snow storage (WRSS) during 31 years from July 1976 to June 2006 were estimated to be 400–1,500 mm in depth, which could be considered a significant amount. WRSS gradually decreased over time from 1976 to 2006. We propose the water balance method to estimate WRSS and water resources by snowmelt (WRSM), which easily estimates these parameters without the need for any detailed analysis of hydrograph as that of the Tank model. If snowfall decreases due to global warming, we suggest this area would suffer an irrigation water shortage under the water right, especially in the early spring.     

Prediction of water resources as snow storage under climate change in the Tedori River basin of Japan

We investigate the effect of climate change on water resources as snow storage (WRSS) using a regional climate model with a 20-km mesh (MRI-RCM20), in the Tedori River basin of Japan. We make four main predictions. First, annual average temperature in Kanazawa is predicted to increase by 2.7 °C by 2081–2100, compared to the period 1981–2000. The smallest predicted temperature difference is 1.1 °C in August, and the largest is 3.4 °C in April and December. The annual average temperature is predicted to change from 14.5 to 17.2 °C. Second, annual average precipitation is predicted to increase by 3.8 %, and precipitation during the snowfall season (December–February) is predicted to decrease by 13.2 %, as a result of increasing temperatures. Third, average WRSS for the period 2001–2100 is predicted by degree-day and tank model analyses. Both the analyses show very similar results. The degree-day analysis shows 200 mm of average WRSS in 2100, and 477 mm in 2050. These values constitute 26 and 63 % of the WRSS value in 2000 (754 mm). The tank model analysis shows WRSS of 260 mm in 2100 and 523 mm in 2050, which are 33 and 67 % of the WRSS (785 mm) in 2000, respectively. Fourth, to examine the effect on irrigation water especially on the paddy paddling period, discharge is predicted and considered under the predicted average WRSS is 520 mm in 2050, 258 mm in 2100, and reaches a minimum of 41 mm in 2100.     

Climate change impacts on agriculture and irrigation in the Lower Mekong Basin

According to hydrological simulations by the Mekong River Commission, average annual flow of the Mekong will not change significantly despite climate change. However, they projected increased variability in wet and dry season flows, which will tend to increase the flood and drought risks to crops. To learn the implications of climate change for rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), a lower part of the Basin from China-Lao PDR border to the South China Sea, climate and hydrological figures related to rice production were compared in between the baseline in 1985–2000 and the climate change scenario in 2010–2050. Special attention was given to their 10 and 90 % exceedance values, which are rough equivalence of 10 and 90 % cumulative probabilities, to see changes in the frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Major findings of this study include the followings: (1) evapo-transpirations will increase in both average and 90 % cumulative probability values, raising irrigation demand. (2) Deviation of the annual rainfall will become larger, causing water shortage in reservoirs more frequently in the future. (3) The transplanting date of rain-fed rice will be delayed more likely due to insufficient precipitation in the early wet season, which may result in decreasing rice production. (4) Longer dry spells will be observed during the wet season, raising the drought risk to rain-fed rice. (5) These changes will be generally observed across the LMB, while the extent of the changes varies among regions.

     

Climate change impacts on agriculture and irrigation in the Lower Mekong Basin

According to hydrological simulations by the Mekong River Commission, average annual flow of the Mekong will not change significantly despite climate change. However, they projected increased variability in wet and dry season flows, which will tend to increase the flood and drought risks to crops. To learn the implications of climate change for rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), a lower part of the Basin from China-Lao PDR border to the South China Sea, climate and hydrological figures related to rice production were compared in between the baseline in 1985–2000 and the climate change scenario in 2010–2050. Special attention was given to their 10 and 90 % exceedance values, which are rough equivalence of 10 and 90 % cumulative probabilities, to see changes in the frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Major findings of this study include the followings: (1) evapo-transpirations will increase in both average and 90 % cumulative probability values, raising irrigation demand. (2) Deviation of the annual rainfall will become larger, causing water shortage in reservoirs more frequently in the future. (3) The transplanting date of rain-fed rice will be delayed more likely due to insufficient precipitation in the early wet season, which may result in decreasing rice production. (4) Longer dry spells will be observed during the wet season, raising the drought risk to rain-fed rice. (5) These changes will be generally observed across the LMB, while the extent of the changes varies among regions.     

Climate change’s impact on irrigation system and farmers’ response: a case study of the Plaichumpol Irrigation Project,Phitsanulok Province,Thailand

The Plaichumpol Irrigation Project, in Nan Basin of Thailand, is selected as a case study of impact study, where farmers depended on both surface and groundwater sources (especially in the dry year), to assess the impact on irrigation systems. The study used the MRI-GCM data to project the future climate condition and assess the impact on irrigation systems focusing on water shortage and groundwater pumping aspects in the selected consecutive dry years. The responses from farmers on the impact and adaptation were also gathered via site interviews and analyzed. Based on the bias-corrected MRI-GCM data, the annual rainfall in Nan Basin will decrease in the near future (2015–2039), compared with the past average data (1979–2006), while the rainfall will increase in the far future (2075–2099) compared with past. Water supply from dam will decrease in wet season and dry season, while water demand in both of near future and far future will increase in wet season and dry season. Less water shortage and groundwater pumping in both near-future and far-future periods are expected in the future consecutive dry years compared with the past, though the groundwater is still an important supplementary irrigation water source in the dry year. From the field interview, the farmers are ready to adapt to the changing situations and join in the water use meeting to follow up with irrigation officers about the adjustment of plant calendar and water allocation due to the climate change and to prepare adaptation measures as necessary.

     

Climate Change and Potato Production in Contrasting South African Agro-Ecosystems 2. Assessing Risks and Opportunities of Adaptation Strategies

This study aims to assess the risks and opportunities posed by climate change to potato growers in South Africa and to evaluate adaptation measures in the form of changes in planting time growers could adopt to optimise land and water use efficiencies in potato, using a climate model of past, present-day and future climate over southern Africa and the LINTUL crop growth model. This was done for distinct agro-ecosystems in South Africa: the southern Mediterranean area where potato still is grown year round with a doubling of the number of hot days between 1960 and 2050, the Eastern Free State with summer crops only and Limpopo with currently autumn, winter and spring crops where the number of hot days increases sevenfold and in future the crop will mainly be grown in winter. A benefit here will be a drastic reduction of frost days from 0.9 days per winter to 0. Potato crops in the agro-ecosystems will benefit considerably from increased CO₂ levels such as increased tuber yield and reduced water use by the crop, if planting is shifted to appropriate times of the year. When the crop is grown in hot periods, however, these benefits are counteracted by an increased incidence of heat stress and increased evapotranspiration, leading in some instances to considerably lower yields and water use efficiencies. Therefore year-round total production at the Sandveld stabilizes at around 140 Mg?ha^?1 (yield reduction in summer and yield increase in winter), increases by about 30% in the Free State and stays at about 95 t?ha^?1 at Limpopo where yield increase due to CO₂ is annulled by a shorter growing season. When the crop is grown in a cool period, there is an additional benefit of a reduced incidence of cold stress and a more rapid canopy development in the early stages of crop growth. In all three areas, potato growers are likely to respond to climate change by advancing planting. In Limpopo, a major benefit of climate change is a reduction in the risk of frost damage in winter. The relevance of these findings for potato grown in agro-ecosystems elsewhere in the world is discussed.     

Climate change’s impact on irrigation system and farmers’ response: a case study of the Plaichumpol Irrigation Project,Phitsanulok Province,Thailand

The Plaichumpol Irrigation Project, in Nan Basin of Thailand, is selected as a case study of impact study, where farmers depended on both surface and groundwater sources (especially in the dry year), to assess the impact on irrigation systems. The study used the MRI-GCM data to project the future climate condition and assess the impact on irrigation systems focusing on water shortage and groundwater pumping aspects in the selected consecutive dry years. The responses from farmers on the impact and adaptation were also gathered via site interviews and analyzed. Based on the bias-corrected MRI-GCM data, the annual rainfall in Nan Basin will decrease in the near future (2015–2039), compared with the past average data (1979–2006), while the rainfall will increase in the far future (2075–2099) compared with past. Water supply from dam will decrease in wet season and dry season, while water demand in both of near future and far future will increase in wet season and dry season. Less water shortage and groundwater pumping in both near-future and far-future periods are expected in the future consecutive dry years compared with the past, though the groundwater is still an important supplementary irrigation water source in the dry year. From the field interview, the farmers are ready to adapt to the changing situations and join in the water use meeting to follow up with irrigation officers about the adjustment of plant calendar and water allocation due to the climate change and to prepare adaptation measures as necessary.     

Analysis of water balance by surface–groundwater interaction using the SWAT model for the Han River basin,South Korea

The water balance and groundwater dynamics due to surface–groundwater interactions for watershed health assessment were investigated for the Han River basin (34,148 km²) of South Korea using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was established considering 4 multipurpose dams and 3 multifunction weirs. The SWAT was spatially calibrated and validated using daily observed inflows for the dam (2005–2014) and weir (2012–2014) as well as evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and groundwater level data (2009–2013). The simulation results revealed the impact of surface–groundwater exchange fluxes on the water balance and baseflow by evaluating the vertical water budget and horizontal water transfer. Evapotranspiration in the surface and return flows from the shallow aquifer for the dry season was estimated to be 29 and 10% higher than for the wet season, respectively. Percolation’s role was also significant, providing approximately 24% of the annual groundwater recharge to shallow aquifers in the rainy season. On average, the February to August period (A) was characterized by a net flux of infiltration into the groundwater. For the September to January period (B), the proportion of groundwater flow into the river of the basin was nearly balanced by a slight increase in surface water infiltration. During period A of average surface water infiltration into the groundwater, the net groundwater recharge was positive and up to 20% of the infiltration during this period resulted from groundwater recharge. These results showed that groundwater recharge is strongly affected by the surface water and groundwater interactions.     

Prediction of paddy field change based on climate change scenarios using the CLUE model

This study simulated land-cover change using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model and predicted future changes in paddy field area under climate change scenarios A1B, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The CLUE model is a dynamic spatial land-use simulation model considering competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Yongin, Icheon, and Anseong, South Korea, were selected as study areas, and scenarios were developed for regional-level simulation of land-use change. Binary logistic regressions were also conducted to evaluate the relationships between land uses and its driving factors. Finally, the simulation results suggested future changes of paddy field area under the scenario conditions. In all the scenarios, demand for cropland, including paddy and upland, decreased continuously throughout the simulation period of 2000–2100. The decrease in cropland area was particularly steep in scenario A2 in 2050. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values indicated that the spatial patterns of land-cover types based on the regressions were reasonably explained by the driving factors. According to the scenarios developed and location characteristics, in scenario A1B, paddy field areas were mainly transformed into built-up areas, while in the other scenarios paddy field areas were mainly transformed into forest. The approach used in this study is expected to enable exploration of future land-use changes under other development constraints and detailed scenarios.     

Projecting Future Crop Evapotranspiration and Irrigation Requirement of Potato in Lower Gangetic Plains of India using the CROPWAT 8.0 Model

A study on evapotranspiration from potato fields was conducted in the Lower Gangetic Plains of India. The input data required for the CROPWAT irrigation management model was collected, and evapotranspiration (ET) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) for potato crops were calculated using the model. Firstly, the CROPWAT model was validated by comparing simulated crop evapotranspiration (SET) with actual ET calculated through the field water balance method. Thereafter, SET and IWR for nine locations in the lower Gangetic plains of India were calculated for the period from 1996–1997 to 2008–2009, for the current situation (using 20-year-average weather data of the stations), and for elevated thermal conditions, i.e. considering 2 and 3 °C increases over the current temperature. The future change in IWR for potato up to 2050 was also calculated considering the projected climatic scenario generated by the PRECIS model. The CROPWAT calculated IWR values showed an increasing, though not statistically significant, trend in requirement of irrigation water for potato across the nine locations during the period from 1996–1997 to 2008–2009. At a temperature increase of 2 °C over normal, the mean SET of potato would increase by 0.06 mm per day and the average IWR would be 6.0 mm per season more. If the mean temperature would be 3 °C more than normal, the SET would be 0.16 mm day^?1 higher and the IWR 16.6 mm. Also based on the projected climatic scenario generated by the PRECIS model, the future SET up to 2050 showed an increasing trend. The present study indicates increasing demand for irrigation water, which may significantly affect the agricultural scenario in the region.     

Synoptic weather typing and typhoon with an application to Chiayi, Taiwan: potential for future climate change impact analysis

In this study, an automated synoptic weather typing was employed to identity the weather types most likely associated with daily typhoon/typhoon-related heavy rainfall events for Chiayi, Taiwan. The synoptic weather typing was developed using principal components analysis, an average linkage clustering procedure, and discriminant function analysis. The classification results showed that the synoptic weather typing was successful at identifying typhoon-related weather types. Five synoptic weather types (Weather Types 1–5) were identified over the past 11-year period as the primary typhoon-related weather types. These five typhoon-related weather types can capture 34 out of 36 total typhoon-related heavy rainfall days (>50 mm/d) and all nine cases with typhoon-related daily rainfall >200 mm during the period March 1998–December 2008. This result suggests that synoptic weather typing can be useful to identify historical typhoon/typhoon-related heavy rainfall events. Moreover, the method has potential to assess climate change impacts on the frequency/intensity of future typhoon/typhoon-related heavy rainfall events using future downscaled GCM climate data.     

基于适应性调整的豫南地区水稻生产对未来气候变化的响应

选取河南信阳市9个取样点和单季稻早、中、晚熟3个代表性品种开展气候变化影响的评价研究。根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2、B2情景并结合区域气候模式(PRECIS),生成信阳市9个取样点基准时段(1961-1990年)和未来时段(2021-2050年)的逐日气象资料。利用ORYZA-V3模型,在考虑未来CO_2的直接增益效应情况下,模拟分析了未来气候变化对水稻生产的影响。在此基础上,模拟分析了未来不同情景下水稻生产可能的适应性调整方案,最后得出研究区域的水稻生产经过适应性调整后的产量、稳产性以及豫南地区水稻总产的变化。结果显示,未来气候变化中,若不进行适应性调整,在不考虑CO_2直接增益效应情况下,信阳地区在A2情景下的模拟产量较基准阶段减产14.1%,B2情景下减产8.6%。通过品种、播期的调整,并同时考虑CO_2的肥效作用,A2和B2情景下将分别增产17.2%和15.7%。适应性调整后豫南地区的总产在A2和B2情景下较基准阶段将分别增产14.8%和13.2%。因此,在未来气候变化的评价研究中,将作物生产的适应性调整考虑在内,不仅更为科学合理,也更为乐观。     

Note on effects of soil surface crust on the grain yield of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) in the Sahel

The prominent effects of a soil surface crust on crop production, impedance to seedling emergence and reduced infiltration rate, were examined using a quantitative land evaluation model under the Sahelian environmental and soil conditions of north-central Burkina Faso. The model integrated data from climate, soil and crop for quantifying potential grain yield of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), grown on a sandy loam soil for 14 production years (1977–1990). Crust development was induced using `simulated rainfall' with an intensity of 75 mm h⁻¹ from a 2 m height. Results revealed that seeding sorghum in small holes without sufficiently breaking the surface crust depressed grain yield. Observed and potential yield correlated closely over a 7-year period (r = 0.79, p < = 0.05). Substantial yield gap was found between estimated potential yield (crust broken scenario set to 75% of the predicted yield) and observed, indicating however, the possibility of significantly improving yield by using appropriate tillage to break the crust before seeding.     

The influence of weather conditions on the activity of high-arctic arthropods inferred from long-term observations

Background  

Climate change is particularly pronounced in the High Arctic and a better understanding of the repercussions on ecological processes like herbivory, predation and pollination is needed. Arthropods play an important role in the high-arctic ecosystem and this role is determined by their density and activity. However, density and activity may be sensitive to separate components of climate. Earlier emergence due to advanced timing of snowmelt following climate change may expose adult arthropods to unchanged temperatures but higher levels of radiation. The capture rate of arthropods in passive open traps like pitfall trap integrates density and activity and, therefore, serves as a proxy of the magnitude of such arthropod-related ecological processes. We used arthropod pitfall trapping data and weather data from 10 seasons in high-arctic Greenland to identify climatic effects on the activity pattern of nine arthropod taxa.