基于MaxEnt模型和不同气候变化情景的单叶蔓荆潜在地理分布预测

单叶蔓荆为我国常用中药蔓荆子的来源之一,不仅具有良好的药用价值,还具有很高的生态效益,能很好地防风固沙和保持水土。预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响可以为单叶蔓荆的可持续利用提供科学基础和参考依据。本研究利用获得的单叶蔓荆126个地理分布记录和22个环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型分析了单叶蔓荆在我国全国范围内的潜在地理分布,并基于该模型预测了4种气候情景下21世纪50和70年代单叶蔓荆分布范围。结果表明,最大熵模型预测单叶蔓荆潜在生境分布的精度较高(接收者操作特征曲线下方的平均面积为0.988),海拔、平均气温日较差、最冷季度降水量和最干月份降水量是影响单叶蔓荆分布的主要气候因子。由模型预测可知,在4种气候情景下,单叶蔓荆在全国适宜生境和低适宜生境的数量均有不同幅度的增加,适宜生境增加较快,低适宜生境增加缓慢;到2050s阶段,适宜生境比例由当前的5.03%分别上升到15.88%、17.00%、17.59%和23.11%;低适宜生境比例由当前的8.86%分别上升到11.09%、10.31%、11.53%和12.96%;到2070s阶段,适宜生境比例分别上升到21.22%、22.21%、24.57%和30.66%;低适宜生境比例分别上升到11.85%、12.07%、13.99%和14.66%。空间分布上,单叶蔓荆的适宜生境和低适宜生境的范围及几何中心都由沿海地区向内陆扩散;湖南和江西两省的适宜生境比例增长较快,尤其在四川境内,当前只有很小比例的低适宜生境,随着气候的变化,低适宜生境面积有所上升,并且适宜生境开始出现且增长速度较快。     

Multi-scale approach to understanding climate effects on offspring size at birth and date of birth in a reptile

Climate change is already impacting species around the world. Although most focus has been on the effect of temperature, changes in climatic variables other than temperature are also expected to drive biological change. Current models suggest that ectotherms, such as reptiles, will be strongly affected by climate change; however, data from natural populations are rare. Here, we use extensive data from 2 populations of a viviparous lizard (Niveoscincus ocellatus Gray, 1845) at the climatic extreme of the species distribution. We examine the effects of climate at a local, a regional and a global scale (thus, integrating a suite of variables at different spatial and temporal scales) on 2 key life history traits: offspring date of birth and size at birth. Overall, our results show that across 9 years of study, local temperature had strong effects on the offspring date of birth but not on the size at birth. Therefore, a rapid increase in local temperature throughout the species range (as predicted under global warming scenarios) is likely to affect phenological processes with potential concomitant effects on offspring fitness and survival.     

The differential genetic signatures related to climatic landscapes for jaguars and pumas on a continental scale

Modern and paleoclimate changes may have altered species dynamics by shifting species’ niche suitability over space and time. We analyze whether the current genetic structure and isolation of the two large American felids, jaguar (Panthera onca) and puma (Puma concolor), are mediated by changes in climatic suitability and connection routes over modern and paleoclimatic landscapes. We estimate species distribution under 5 climatic landscapes (modern, Holocene, last maximum glaciations [LMG], average suitability, and climatic instability) and correlate them with individuals’ genetic isolation through causal modeling on a resemblance matrix. Both species exhibit genetic isolation patterns correlated with LMG climatic suitability, suggesting that these areas may have worked as “allele refuges.” However, the jaguar showed higher vulnerability to climate changes, responding to modern climatic suitability and connection routes, whereas the puma showed a continuous and gradual transition of genetic variation. Despite differential responsiveness to climate change, both species are subjected to the climatic effects on genetic configuration, which may make them susceptible to future climatic changes, since these are progressing faster and with higher intensity than changes in the paleoclimate. Thus, the effects of climatic changes should be considered in the design of conservation strategies to ensure evolutionary and demographic processes mediated by gene flow for both species.     

A Conceptual Model for the Impact of Climate Change on Fox Rabies in Alaska, 1980–2010

The direct and interactive effects of climate change on host species and infectious disease dynamics are likely to initially manifest\ at latitudinal extremes. As such, Alaska represents a region in the United States for introspection on climate change and disease. Rabies is enzootic among arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) throughout the northern polar region. In Alaska, arctic and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are reservoirs for rabies, with most domestic animal and wildlife cases reported from northern and western coastal Alaska. Based on passive surveillance, a pronounced seasonal trend in rabid foxes occurs in Alaska, with a peak in winter and spring. This study describes climatic factors that may be associated with reported cyclic rabies occurrence. Based upon probabilistic modelling, a stronger seasonal effect in reported fox rabies cases appears at higher latitudes in Alaska, and rabies in arctic foxes appear disproportionately affected by climatic factors in comparison with red foxes. As temperatures continue a warming trend, a decrease in reported rabid arctic foxes may be expected. The overall epidemiology of rabies in Alaska is likely to shift to increased viral transmission among red foxes as the primary reservoir in the region. Information on fox and lemming demographics, in addition to enhanced rabies surveillance among foxes at finer geographic scales, will be critical to develop more comprehensive models for rabies virus transmission in the region.     

Climate change effects on trematodiases,with emphasis on zoonotic fascioliasis and schistosomiasis

The capacity of climatic conditions to modulate the extent and intensity of parasitism is well known since long ago. Concerning helminths, among the numerous environmental modifications giving rise to changes in infections, climate variables appear as those showing a greater influence, so that climate change may be expected to have an important impact on the diseases they cause. However, the confirmation of the impact of climate change on helminthiases has been reached very recently. Only shortly before, helminthiases were still noted as infectious diseases scarcely affected by climate change, when compared to diseases caused by microorganisms in general (viruses, bacteriae, protozoans). The aim of the present paper is to review the impact of climate change on helminthiases transmitted by snails, invertebrates which are pronouncedly affected by meteorological factors, by focusing on trematodiases. First, the knowledge on the effects of climate change on trematodiases in general is reviewed, including aspects such as influence of temperature on cercarial output, cercarial production variability in trematode species, influences of magnitude of cercarial production and snail host size, cercarial quality, duration of cercarial production increase and host mortality, influence of latitude, and global-warming-induced impact of trematodes. Secondly, important zoonotic diseases such as fascioliasis, schistosomiasis and cercarial dermatitis are analysed from the point of view of their relationships with meteorological factors. Emphasis is given to data which indicate that climate change influences the characteristics of these trematodiases in concrete areas where these diseases are emerging in recent years. The present review shows that trematodes, similarly as other helminths presenting larval stages living freely in the environment and/or larval stages parasitic in invertebrates easily affected by climate change as arthropods and molluscs as intermediate hosts, may be largely more susceptible to climate change impact than those helminths in whose life cycle such phases are absent or reduced to a minimum. Although helminths also appear to be affected by climate change, their main difference with microparasites lies on the usually longer life cycles of helminths, with longer generation times, slower population growth rates and longer time period needed for the response in the definitive host to become evident. Consequently, after a pronounced climate change in a local area, modifications in helminth populations need more time to be obvious or detectable than modifications in microparasite populations. Similarly, the relation of changes in a helminthiasis with climatic factor changes, as extreme events elapsed relatively long time ago, may be overlooked if not concretely searched for. All indicates that this phenomenon has been the reason for previous analyses to conclude that helminthiases do not constitute priority targets in climate change impact studies.     

Voles and weasels in the boreal Fennoscandian small mammal community: what happens if the least weasel disappears due to climate change?

Climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats for populations and a challenge for individual behavior, interactions and survival. Predator–prey interactions are modified by climate processes. In the northern latitudes, strong seasonality is changing and the main predicted feature is shortening and instability of winter. Vole populations in the boreal Fennoscandia exhibit multiannual cycles. High amplitude peak numbers of voles and dramatic population lows alternate in 3–5‐year cycles shortening from North to South. One key factor, or driver, promoting the population crash and causing extreme extended lows, is suggested to be predation by the least weasel. We review the arms race between prey voles and weasels through the multiannual density fluctuation, affected by climate change, and especially the changes in the duration and stability of snow cover. For ground‐dwelling small mammals, snow provides thermoregulation and shelter for nest sites, and helps them hide from predators. Predicted increases in the instability of winter forms a major challenge for species with coat color change between brown summer camouflage and white winter coat. One of these is the least weasel, Mustela nivalis nivalis. Increased vulnerability of wrong‐colored weasels to predation affects vole populations and may have dramatic effects on vole dynamics. It may have cascading effects on other small rodent–predator interactions and even on plant–animal interactions and forest dynamics.     

气候变化背景下我国扁蓿豆潜在适生区预测

扁蓿豆（Medicago ruthenica）是我国北方地区重要的豆科饲草资源,在草地改良、人工草地建设及生态修复等方面起重要作用,研究气候变化背景下我国扁蓿豆潜在适生区分布对其种植区划及种质资源保护具有重要意义。本研究采用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）预测了气候变化背景下扁蓿豆的适宜性生境分布区域及影响其分布的主导气候因子。结果表明,当前气候背景下我国扁蓿豆的适生区主要集中在内蒙古、黑龙江、新疆、甘肃、四川、西藏、吉林、陕西、云南、河北、青海中东部、山西、辽宁、山东东部、河南西北部、宁夏等地区;影响当代扁蓿豆适生区分布的主导因子是最干旱月降水量（bio14）、最冷季度降水量（bio19）、最湿润月降水量（bio13）、最热季度平均温度（bio10）;间冰期我国扁蓿豆的适生区较大,分布范围较广,而最佳适生区较小,仅占4.79%,从末次冰期冰盛期开始到未来CCSM4-rps26-2070等5个气候情景下我国扁蓿豆的适生区总面积较间冰期变小,而最佳适生区面积增加,5个气候情景的适生区面积和范围变化较小,受气候变化影响相对较弱。     

气候变化对青藏高原高寒草甸适宜气候分布范围的潜在影响

为确定气候变化对高寒草甸分布范围的影响,以Holdridge生命地带性分类系统,采用A1、A2、B1、B2气候变化情景,分析了气候变化对我国高寒草甸潜在适宜气候分布范围的影响.结果显示:气候变化下,高寒草甸基准情景下适宜气候分布范围将减少,新适宜气候分布范围将增加,总的适宜气候分布范围变化不大,其中A1、A2情景下变化较大,B1、B2气候情景下变化较小;高寒草甸在基准情景下适宜气候分布范围的最小、最大值与中位数都将减少,新适宜气候扩展范围的最小、最大值与中位数将增加,总的适宜气候分布范围的最小、最大值与中位数变化不大;高寒草甸基准情景下适宜气候分布区南部范围将缩小,新的适宜气候分布范围将主要朝西部和西北部方向扩展,其中A1情景下变化最大,B1情景下变化较小;高寒草甸基准情景下适宜气候分布范围和新的适宜气候分布范围与我国年均气温变化和年降水量变化呈现正相关性.从而预测,气候变化使高寒草甸在基准情景下的气候分布范围将减小,新的适宜分布范围将扩大,空间分布格局将发生改变.     

Impact of rewilding,species introductions and climate change on the structure and function of the Yukon boreal forest ecosystem

Community and ecosystem changes are happening in the pristine boreal forest ecosystem of the Yukon for 2 reasons. First, climate change is affecting the abiotic environment (temperature, rainfall and growing season) and driving changes in plant productivity and predator–prey interactions. Second, simultaneously change is occurring because of mammal species reintroductions and rewilding. The key ecological question is the impact these faunal changes will have on trophic dynamics. Primary productivity in the boreal forest is increasing because of climatic warming, but plant species composition is unlikely to change significantly during the next 50–100 years. The 9–10‐year population cycle of snowshoe hares will persist but could be reduced in amplitude if winter weather increases predator hunting efficiency. Small rodents have increased in abundance because of increased vegetation growth. Arctic ground squirrels have disappeared from the forest because of increased predator hunting efficiency associated with shrub growth. Reintroductions have occurred for 2 reasons: human reintroductions of large ungulates and natural recolonization of mammals and birds extending their geographic ranges. The deliberate rewilding of wood bison (Bison bison) and elk (Cervus canadensis) has changed the trophic structure of this boreal ecosystem very little. The natural range expansion of mountain lions (Puma concolor), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and American marten (Martes americana) should have few ecosystem effects. Understanding potential changes will require long‐term monitoring studies and experiments on a scale we rarely deem possible. Ecosystems affected by climate change, species reintroductions and human alteration of habitats cannot remain stable and changes will be critically dependent on food web interactions.     

Using physiological conditions to assess current and future habitat use of a Subarctic frog

Species with especially close dependence on the environment to meet physiological requirements, such as ectotherms, are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Subarctic and Arctic, but there is limited knowledge on ectotherm physiology in these landscapes. We investigated how environmental conditions and habitat characteristics influence the physiological conditions and habitat use of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in a Subarctic landscape near Churchill, Manitoba (Canada). We used plaster models to estimate water loss rates and surface body temperatures among different habitat types and at specific locations used by radio-tracked frogs. Water loss (R² = 0.67) and surface temperature (R² = 0.80) of plaster models was similar to that of live frogs. Model-based water loss rates were greater in tundra habitat than in boreal forest and ecotone habitat. Habitat use of wood frogs was strongly tied with available surface moisture and decreased water loss rates that were observed with plaster models. Environmental conditions, such as wind speed and ground temperature, explained 58% and 91% of the variation in water balance and temperature of plaster models. Maintaining physiological conditions may be challenging for semi-aquatic ectotherms in environments vulnerable to future climate change. The ability to predict physiological conditions based on environmental conditions, as demonstrated in our study, can help understand how wildlife will respond to climatic changes.     

Climate change and invasive species: double jeopardy

Two of the key drivers of biodiversity loss today are climate change and invasive species. Climate change is already having a measurable impact on species distributions, reproduction and behavior, and all evidence suggests that things will get worse even if we act tomorrow to mitigate any future increases in greenhouse gas emissions: temperature will increase, precipitation will change, sea level will rise and ocean chemistry will change. At the same time, biological invasions remain an important threat to biodiversity, causing species loss, changes in distribution and habitat degradation. Acting together, the impacts of each of these drivers of change are compounded and interactions between these two threats present even greater challenges to field conservationists as well as policymakers. Similarly, the social and economic impacts of climate change and invasive species, already substantial, will be magnified. Awareness of the links between the two should underpin all biodiversity management planning and policy.     

Climate and land-use change jointly determine the spatial-temporal changes of ecosystem services in Hainan and Haibei Tibetan Autonomous Prefectures，Qinghai Province北大核心CSCD

Evaluating the spatial-temporal dynamics and driving factors of ecosystem services is fundamental to the understanding of how to maintain and improve those ecosystem services. Alpine regions are both a hotspot of ecosystem service supply，and sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. However，there are few systematic studies investigating the joint role of land-use change and climate change in shaping the spatial-temporal dynamics of alpine ecosystem services. Here，we first used models of ecosystem services to quantify changes in seven ecosystem services and in ecosystem multiserviceability from 2000 to 2015 in Haibei and Hainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefectures on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Next，we investigated the relative importance of climate change，population density change，land-use change and the interactions between climate change and land-use change effects on ecosystem services using generalized linear models. We found that ecosystem services increased in the south while decreased in the north from 2000 to 2015. Land use change（relative contribution was 34%）was the major factor affecting food supply. Net ecosystem productivity（NEP）was affected by temperature change（relative contribution was 77%）. Water purification（nitrogen and phosphorus retention），soil retention，water yield and water retention were affected by precipitation change （relative contributions were 63%，48%，74%，86% and 75%，respectively）. Ecosystem multiserviceability was also affected by precipitation. In addition to the service of soil retention，the effects of climate change（i. e. precipitation and temperature）on other ecosystem services and ecosystem multiserviceability varied with land-use change （interaction，P<0. 001）. Our study highlights that realizing the sustainable development of ecosystem services needs to pay attention to both land-use change and the interactions between climate change and land-use change and optimizing the spatial-temporal allocation of ecosystem services to improve ecosystem multiserviceability in alpine regions. © 2022 Editorial Office of Acta Prataculturae Sinica. All rights reserved.     

气候变化对草地植物优势种的影响研究进展

草地是重要的生态系统类型,也是对气候变化最敏感的生态系统类型之一,气候变化深刻地影响草地生态系统.由于在群落中的高优势度,植物优势种对草地群落组成和结构、群落生物多样性及动态、生态系统生产力、生态过程和功能均有重要影响,是生态学研究中空间尺度推绎的关键.从优势种的定义人手,通过解析优势机制,阐述了植物优势种的研究意义;...     

野生动物生境破碎化理论探讨

生境破碎化是指由于人类活动或自然因素引起生境变化的一个生态过程。生境破碎化是生态学和保护生物学中较新的理论,已成为保护生态学、景观生态学和保护生物学研究领域中备受关注的热点问题之一。本文介绍了生境破碎化的基本概念、主要特点,以及生境破碎化在种群、群落、生态系统和景观层次引起的生态效应,概括了生境破碎化在形式上和功能上的主要表现。同时综述了生境破碎化研究的起源、发展和在森林采伐、道路及边缘效应3个主要方面的研究进展,并着重探讨了生境破碎化：（1）对野牛动物生物多样性保护带来的生态效益;（2）对野生动物景观结构与格局的时空动态影响分析;（3）对野生动物产生的直接或潜在生态过程中的尺度性;（4）对野生动物遗传多样性产生的影响;（5）野生动物对生境破碎化的适应机制等研究发展方向和趋势。     

Choosing among correlative,mechanistic, and hybrid models of species’ niche and distribution

Different models are available to estimate species’ niche and distribution. Mechanistic and correlative models have different underlying conceptual bases, thus generating different estimates of a species’ niche and geographic extent. Hybrid models, which combining correlative and mechanistic approaches, are considered a promising strategy; however, no synthesis in the literature assessed their applicability for terrestrial vertebrates to allow best-choice model considering their strengths and trade-offs. Here, we provide a systematic review of studies that compared or integrated correlative and mechanistic models to estimate species’ niche for terrestrial vertebrates under climate change. Our goal was to understand their conceptual, methodological, and performance differences, and the applicability of each approach. The studies we reviewed directly compared mechanistic and correlative predictions in terms of accuracy or estimated suitable area, however, without any quantitative analysis to support comparisons. Contrastingly, many studies suggest that instead of comparing approaches, mechanistic and correlative methods should be integrated (hybrid models). However, we stress that the best approach is highly context-dependent. Indeed, the quality and effectiveness of the prediction depends on the study's objective, methodological design, and which type of species’ niche and geographic distribution estimated are more appropriate to answer the study's issue.     

Molecular phylogenetics reveals a complex history underlying cryptic diversity in the Bush Squeaker Frog (Arthroleptis wahlbergii) in southern Africa

Throughout the Miocene, the African landscape underwent broad climatic shifts that profoundly influenced the distribution of fauna and flora. Since the late Miocene, these shifts have created a landscape in southern Africa that is strongly characterised by savanna and arid environments. Forests persist in small fragments, primarily in mountainous or heterogeneous landscapes. Arthroleptis wahlbergii is a small frog endemic to eastern South Africa that has presumed low dispersal ability. Because of its preference for forests, the dynamics of forests since the late Miocene in this region might have promoted diversification within A. wahlbergii. To investigate whether habitat fragmentation might have driven divergences among populations, we carried out species distribution modelling and population level and phylogenetic analyses using two genetic loci (16S, mitochondrial; RAG-1, nuclear) sequenced for 48 individuals from 14 forests across the c. 500 km range of this species. There is substantial population-level structuring within A. wahlbergii, however the structure does not relate to forest types or catchments. We instead propose that the structure is a result of dynamic and idiosyncratic changes in forest connectivity over the Pleistocene. We identified two geographically circumscribed clades, the northern of which corresponds to true A. wahlbergii. The southern clade corresponds to populations from which Arthroleptis wageri FitzSimons, 1930 was described. This has long been considered a synonym of A. wahlbergii, but our molecular phylogenetic and distribution modelling supports recognising A. wageri as a distinct species.     

Climate migrants’ survival threatened by “C” shaped anthropic barriers

Despite studies on range shifts being abundant, the problem of dispersal barriers limiting climate migrants’ movement is yet to be fully included into any modeling framework. For this reason, we introduce a novel concept whereby the interplay of range shifts and dispersal barriers of a particular spatial configuration can threaten the persistence of populations under a climate change scenario. We named this concept “C‐trap,” based on the topographic shape of such barriers. After elaborating on the theoretical features of C‐traps, we provide a simple method that combines environmental data and future climate projections to locate them spatially. We use this method to determine where high C‐trap densities have the potential to further threaten the conservation of endangered, endemic animals across the world's terrestrial realm, in a climate change scenario. Our methodology detected potential C‐traps for the study system, with areas of high density mostly located in east Europe, south Asia and North America. However, finer‐scale analyses are required to assess the magnitude of the threat locally. Dispersal barriers add an additional dimension to range shift studies and can ultimately prevent otherwise successful climate migrants from tracking their climatic niche. The methodology presented here is simple and flexible enough to be adapted to a wide range of taxa and locations as well as the fast development of range shift modeling. Therefore, we encourage researchers to include the effects of anthropogenic dispersal barriers in range shifts models and in the planning of effective conservation strategies with reference to climate change.     

Impact of climate change on the small mammal community of the Yukon boreal forest

Long‐term monitoring is critical to determine the stability and sustainability of wildlife populations, and if change has occurred, why. We have followed population density changes in the small mammal community in the boreal forest of the southern Yukon for 46 years with density estimates by live trapping on 3–5 unmanipulated grids in spring and autumn. This community consists of 10 species and was responsible for 9% of the energy flow in the herbivore component of this ecosystem from 1986 to 1996, but this increased to 38% from 2003 to 2014. Small mammals, although small in size, are large in the transfer of energy from plants to predators and decomposers. Four species form the bulk of the biomass. There was a shift in the dominant species from the 1970s to the 2000s, with Myodes rutilus increasing in relative abundance by 22% and Peromyscus maniculatus decreasing by 22%. From 2007 to 2018, Myodes comprised 63% of the catch, Peromyscus 20%, and Microtus species 17%. Possible causes of these changes involve climate change, which is increasing primary production in this boreal forest, and an associated increase in the abundance of 3 rodent predators, marten (Martes americana), ermine (Mustela ermine) and coyotes (Canis latrans). Following and understanding these and potential future changes will require long‐term monitoring studies on a large scale to measure metapopulation dynamics. The small mammal community in northern Canada is being affected by climate change and cannot remain stable. Changes will be critically dependent on food–web interactions that are species‐specific.     

Direct impacts of climatic warming on heat stress in endothermic species: seabirds as bioindicators of changing thermoregulatory constraints

There is now abundant evidence that contemporary climatic change has indirectly affected a wide-range of species by changing trophic interactions, competition, epidemiology and habitat. However, direct physiological impacts of changing climates are rarely reported for endothermic species, despite being commonly reported for ectotherms. We review the evidence for changing physiological constraints on endothermic vertebrates at high temperatures, integrating theoretical and empirical perspectives on the morphology, physiology and behavior of marine birds. Potential for increasing heat stress exposure depends on changes in multiple environmental variables, not just air temperature, as well as organism-specific morphology, physiology and behavior. Endotherms breeding at high latitudes are vulnerable to the forecast, extensive temperature changes because of the adaptations they possess to minimize heat loss. Low-latitude species will also be challenged as they currently live close to their thermal limits and will likely suffer future water shortages. Small, highly-active species, particularly aerial foragers, are acutely vulnerable as they are least able to dissipate heat at high temperatures. Overall, direct physiological impacts of climatic change appear underrepresented in the published literature, but available data suggest they have much potential to shape behavior, morphology and distribution of endothermic species. Coincidence between future heat stress events and other energetic constraints on endotherms remains largely unexplored but will be key in determining the physiological impacts of climatic change. Multi-scale, biophysical modeling, informed by experiments that quantify thermoregulatory responses of endotherms to heat stress, is an essential precursor to urgently-needed analyses at the population or species level.     

气候变化下子午沙鼠在中国的潜在分布分析

为探究气候变化下子午沙鼠在中国的潜在分布和时空变化,本研究利用子午沙鼠分布数据以及气候、地形等环境数据,基于最大熵模型(The maximum entropy,MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(Geographic information System,GIS)技术,分析大空间尺度上限制子午沙鼠地理分布的主导环境因子。结果表明：当前气候下子午沙鼠高适生区主要分布在甘肃河西走廊、内蒙古西南部、宁夏北部,以及新疆塔里木盆地和天山山脉之间、伊犁州和塔城等地区,中适生区主要分布在甘肃酒泉的北部,内蒙古西北部,青海中部以及新疆的大部分地区;温度是限制子午沙鼠分布的主导气候因子,其次是海拔,降水量也有一定影响。随着全球气候变暖,子午沙鼠生境适宜度提高,在中国的潜在分布范围将扩大。本研究对子午沙鼠危害监测预警和精准防控具有重要的指导意义。