Age-period-cohort analysis of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in Switzerland

Cattle born after animal-feed control measures were implemented in 1990 have become BSE cases in Switzerland, indicating sub-optimal effectiveness of these measures. To evaluate these measures, the incidence of BSE cases in Switzerland recorded through clinical case reporting from January 1991 to June 2000 (categorized into age groups and birth cohorts of 6-month duration) was analyzed by Poisson log-linear regression using an age–period–cohort model. The incidence was maximum in the cattle cohort born from October 1989 to March 1990, and dropped to zero in the cohort born from April to September 1991. A second peak was observed in a cohort born from April to September 1994. The first drop of incidence is interpreted as a result of initial implementation of the feed ban in 1990. The second peak might be related to exposure of cattle to feed intended for pigs and poultry.     

Prevalence of BSE in cattle found dead, euthanased or emergency slaughtered on farms in western France in 2000, 2001 and 2002

The overall trend and the trend within birth cohorts of the prevalence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle found dead, euthanased or emergency slaughtered on farms in the Bretagne, Basse Normandie and Pays de la Loire regions of France, during the periods from August 7 to December 22 in 2000, 2001 and 2002, were analysed by non-conditional logistic regression, adjusted for the region and for the type of animals. The overall prevalence of BSE during these three periods decreased from 2.71 per 1000 in 2000 to 1.41 per 1000 in 2001 and 0.42 per 1000 in 2002. The prevalence within birth cohorts started to decrease for the cohort born between July 1, 1995 and June 30, 1996 (cohort 95/96) and the trend was reinforced for cohort 96/97, suggesting that the exposure of animals to the BSE agent had started to decrease for animals born after July 1995, that is, one year before the ban on specified risk materials in meat and bone meal was implemented in France. However, considering that most of the animals would have been infected at between six and 18 months of age, the decrease may have been due, at least partly, to this control measure.     

Temporal and spatial patterns of the clinical surveillance of BSE in France,analysed from January 1991 to May 2002 through a vigilance index

Between 1991 and mid 2000, the surveillance of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in France was based solely on clinical surveillance through a Mandatory Reporting System. Since 2000, the implementation of active surveillance programmes using rapid tests, as a complementary tool targeted at dead and slaughtered cattle has shown that part of the BSE cases were not detected with the clinical surveillance. In order to obtain a better knowledge of the strength of the clinical surveillance, we analysed a vigilance index defined as the ratio of negative clinical suspicions to the cattle population in the region and period of interest. The temporal analysis of the vigilance index showed that it did not vary much between 1991 and 1999, increased sharply since 2000, and then decreased partly in 2001. The geographical analysis of the variations of the vigilance index was performed at the department level by comparing the observed number of negative clinical suspicions per department to the expected number, computed on the basis of the national average index and standardised on the production type of the cattle - dairy versus beef suckling cattle. As assumed, the data followed a Poisson distribution. We observed a high geographical variation of the vigilance index: ten departments out of 91 presented a significantly higher vigilance index than the national one, and four a significantly lower vigilance index. The vigilance index showed that the clinical surveillance was heterogeneous during the past twelve years, both in time and geographic location, in a range of one to ten. So the apparent trend in the BSE epidemic during this period as well as the differences in the spatial incidence of BSE have to be analysed with caution.     

2001年全国饲料生产回顾及2002年上半年饲料生产形势分析

一、2001年全国饲料生产回顾 2001年,饲料工业稳步发展,全国饲料工业总产值达到1644亿元,饲料产品双班生产能力达到15024万t。饲料产品产量达到7806万t,其中,配合饲料产量6087万t,浓缩饲料1419万t,添加剂预混合料301万t。饲料产品产量、配合饲料、浓缩饲料及添加剂预混合料分别比上年增长5％、3％、14％和19％。饲料工业生产的总体水平继续提高。     

2001年英国口蹄疫流行回顾

20 0 1年 2月 ,英国结束了自 196 8年以来 33年无大规模口蹄疫 (FMD)流行的历史 ,发生了全国性的口蹄疫大流行 ,使 1/8的家畜被杀 ,给农业、旅游和乡村度假业以及其他相关行业的发展造成了严重影响 ,英国的大选也不得不因此而延期。同时 ,疫情还波及到法国、荷兰和爱尔兰 ,造成     

关于饲料工业生产情况的回顾和预测

一、2 0 0 1年生产情况2 0 0 1年是我国饲料工业继续大发展的一年。据初步统计 ,全国饲料产品总产量突破 80 0 0万吨 ,达 80 5 0万吨 ,比上年增长 8 3 %。其中 ,配合饲料产量为 630 0万吨 ,增长 6 % ;浓缩饲料 1 45 0万吨 ,添加剂预混料 30 0万吨 ,分别增长 1 5 %。全国饲料工业的发展特点 :一是继续保持较快的发展速度。全年饲料产品平均增幅为 8 3% ,高于肉类 ( 3 % )和水产品 ( 2 2 % )的增幅。二是质量继续保持较高水平 ,违禁药品检出率大幅度下降。 2 0 0 1年进一步加大了市场监管力度 ,扩大了检测范围 ,配合饲料合格率达到 92 % ,添…     

广东渔业生产2001回顾和2002展望

１２００１年广东渔业生产回顾２００１年广东全年渔业总产量超过６０５万吨,比上年增长２％,其中,捕捞渔业产量２００万吨,比上年略有减少,养殖渔业４０５万吨,比２０００年略有增长。水产品总产值４１０亿元,与２０００年接近。淡水养殖渔业２００１年全年稳定在２４．７万公顷规模,根据市场需求情况,调减了罗氏沼虾养殖面积,增加了６０００公顷白对虾养殖;调减了鳗鱼养殖面积,增加了２０００公顷甲鱼养殖;罗非鱼养殖规模继续扩大,总产量达到２８万吨,四大家鱼总产量１３０万吨,鲩鱼、鳙鱼占四大家鱼总产量的比重超过６５…     

The prevalence and economic importance of bovine fasciolosis in Kenya--an analysis of abattoir data

A retrospective study covering a period of 10 years (1990-1999) was carried out using post mortem meat inspection records at the Veterinary Department Headquarters at Kabete to determine the prevalence and economic importance of bovine fasciolosis in Kenya. Meat inspection records from abattoirs in 38 districts distributed over seven out of the eight provinces of Kenya were examined. Prevalence of fasciolosis was calculated as the number of cattle found to be infected with Fasciola, expressed as a percentage of the total number of cattle slaughtered. Using the average weight and market price of a bovine liver, the monetary loss occasioned by condemnation of Fasciola infected livers was calculated. A survey was also carried out at Dagoretti slaughterhouse complex in Nairobi to determine the relative occurrence of F. gigantica and F. hepatica in slaughtered cattle. Cattle slaughtered at Dagoretti slaughterhouse originate from all parts of the country. A total of 5,421,188 cattle were slaughtered in the seven provinces of Kenya during the 10-year period and 427,931 (8%) of these cattle were infected with Fasciola. The region with the highest prevalence of fasciolosis was Western Province (16%) followed, in descending order, by Eastem Province (11%), Nyanza Province (9%), Rift Valley Province (8%), Central Province (6%), Nairobi Province (4%) and Coast Province (3.5%). The total economic loss incurred by the country during the 10-year period as a result of condemnation of the infected livers was approximately US$2.6 million. The total annual economic losses during this period ranged from approximately US$0.2-0.3 million. The highest total economic losses for the 10-year period were recorded in Western Province (US$0.8 million) and Central Province (US$0.7 million). A total of 1584 cattle originating from five provinces of Kenya were slaughtered at Dagoretti slaughterhouse over a period of two months of which 147 (9.3%) were infected with liver flukes. All the liver flukes obtained from the infected livers were identified as F. gigantica. It is concluded that fasciolosis is prevalent in cattle in all provinces of Kenya, that it causes great economic losses as a result of condemnation of infected livers, and that F. gigantica is the main species of liver flukes affecting cattle in Kenya. Local climatic factors, cattle trade, rustling and population numbers, and the presence of the snail intermediate hosts are probably the main factors influencing the incidence of the disease in the various regions of the country.     

Relationship between litter birth weight and litter size in six breeds of sheep

Metabolizable energy requirements of the ewe increase during pregnancy due to increases in fetal and maternal metabolism. Fetal metabolism is related to total weight of the fetuses. Fetal number is a primary contributor to fetal weight. Litter birth weight represents the culminated fetal growth of the litter and can be used to estimate the effect of fetal metabolism on energy requirements of the ewe. We hypothesized that litter weight in sheep would increase at a decreasing rate with increasing litter size. Birth weights of lambs born to yearling (11 to 15 mo) and mature ewes (> 34 mo) were collected on litters born to Dorset, Rambouillet, Suffolk, Finnsheep, Romanov, and Composite III ewes mated to produce straightbred lambs. Litter birth weight expressed as a function of litter size increased at a decreasing rate and the quadratic term differed from zero for mature Rambouillet, Suffolk, Finnsheep, Romanov, and Composite III litters (P < 0.042). The quadratic coefficient differed among breeds. In yearlings, litter weight increased at a decreasing rate for Suffolk ewes (P = 0.002). The quadratic term for the relationship between litter weight and litter size did not differ from zero for Finnsheep (P = 0.39) or Romanov litters (P = 0.07). The hypothesis that litter weight increases at a decreasing rate with increased litter size is supported by experimental results.     

Poultry, pig and the risk of BSE following the feed ban in France--a spatial analysis

A spatial analysis was carried out in order to analyse the reason why the risk of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) was spatially heterogeneous in France, during the period following the feed ban of Meat and Bone Meal to cattle. The hypothesis of cross-contamination between cattle feedstuff and monogastric feedstuff, which was strongly suggested from previous investigations, was assessed, with the assumption that the higher the pig or poultry density is in a given area, the higher the risk of cross-contamination and cattle infection might be. The data concerned the 467 BSE cases born in France after the ban of meat and bone meal (July 1990) and detected between July 1st, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance system was optimal and not spatially biased. The disease mapping models were elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing (hierarchical approach) and covariates. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The main result was that the poultry density did not significantly influence the risk of BSE whereas the pig density was significantly associated with an increase in the risk of 2.4% per 10 000 pigs. The areas with a significant pig effect were located in regions with a high pig density as well as a high ratio of pigs to cattle. Despite the absence of a global effect of poultry density on the BSE risk, some areas had a significant poultry effect and the risk was better explained in some others when considering both pig and poultry densities. These findings were in agreement with the hypothesis of cross-contamination, which could take place at the feedstuff factory, during the shipment of food or on the farm. Further studies are needed to more precisely explore how the cross-contamination happened.     

Factors associated with the clinical diagnosis of foot and mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the UK

The purpose of this investigation was to identify factors associated with the clinical diagnosis of foot and mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom. Using logistic regression, we compared: (1) reports of suspect disease that resulted in the declaration of FMD to reports that did not, and (2) laboratory-positive cases to laboratory-negative cases. From 6,801 reports of suspect disease, 2,026 cases of FMD were identified. Suspect cases were more likely to become clinical cases if: (1) the report originated from the disease control authorities ('active surveillance') rather than the public, usually farmers ('passive surveillance'); (2) cattle were the species suspected of disease, as opposed to sheep; (3) the report was filed during the peak of the epidemic; (4) the reporting premises was within 3 km of an FMD case detected within the previous 2 weeks; or (5) the report originated from certain local disease control centres. There were significant two-way interactions between: type of surveillance and species suspected of disease, type of surveillance and proximity of other infected premises, species suspected and time in the epidemic, and time in the epidemic and proximity of other infected premises. Clinical cases were more likely to be laboratory positive if: (1) they were found by passive versus active surveillance, (2) cattle were suspected of disease (versus sheep), (3) oldest lesions were less than 3 days, (4) the report was filed at any time other than the peak of the epidemic, or (5) the report originated from certain local disease control centres. Significant two-way interactions were found between: type of surveillance and species suspected of disease, and type of surveillance and time in the epidemic.     

Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom

Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were made during the early stages of the 2001 epidemic in the UK. The first outbreak, confirmed on February 20, was at an abattoir in Essex which specialised in the processing of culled sows and boars. On February 23, the disease was confirmed at a pig farm in Northumberland which held cull sows and boars fed on waste food; the findings indicated that it was the first of the five premises to be infected. The disease had probably been present since early February, and it was the most likely origin of the epidemic. The other premises investigated were a waste food-fed cull sow/boar pig unit in Essex, approximately 30 km from the abattoir, which was probably infected at the same time or before the abattoir, a sheep and cattle farm approximately 6 km from the Northumberland pig farm, which was probably infected by airborne virus from it in the period immediately before February 13, and a sheep and cattle farm in Devon which had clinical disease from February 20 and was probably infected by sheep transported from Northumberland on February 13 which arrived on February 15.     

Comparison of BSE prevalence estimates from EU countries for the period July to December 2001 to the OIE and EU GBR classifications

Consequent upon the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) crisis, the European Union (EU) Commission enacted various decisions, which demanded that all bovine animals over 30 months of age should be examined by one of the approved rapid tests when slaughtered for human consumption. All cattle over 24 months of age subject to 'special emergency slaughtering' or died on the farm or in transit or suspect of BSE infection should also be examined by one of the approved rapid tests. According to a specific commission decision, Sweden and Finland were to test only a sample of bovine animals over 30 months of age subject to normal slaughter. Testing commenced on 1 January 2001. The authors evaluate the results of more than 5 million tests performed in the second semester 2001 from across the EU. The prevalence of BSE in the risk categories considered (emergency slaughter, fallen stock and healthy slaughtered), and the probability distribution of true-positive, false-positive and false-negative results are estimated by second-order Bayesian analysis. The results of the validation of tests performed in the EU are also considered by estimation of the probability distribution of their sensitivity and specificity. The prevalence of infection estimated in the cattle population of each EU country is compared against the criteria given in the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code and is also used to evaluate the consistency of the results of EU Geographical BSE Risk with the actual infection levels in the countries. Finally, the capability of the two current approaches to BSE surveillance (i.e. the testing of all slaughtered and dead cattle as applied in the EU and a surveillance system targeted at animals in risk categories only) to detect the infection in a given population are discussed.     

Factors associated with the early detection of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom

An essential objective of an effective foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) eradication campaign is to shorten the infectious period by rapidly detecting and destroying cases of disease. The purpose of our investigation was to identify factors associated with the early detection of clinical FMD during the 2001 outbreak in the United Kingdom. We performed a logistic regression analysis, using early versus late detection of disease as the outcome of interest.During the 2001 FMD outbreak in the United Kingdom, infected premises were more likely to be detected early under the following circumstances: 1) cattle (particularly dairy) were infected rather than sheep; 2) a recently confirmed infected premises was within 3 km of the new case; and 3) the case was initially reported by the farmer, rather than a Local Disease Control Centre-initiated surveillance activity (patrol, tracing, pre-emptive cull). Our findings suggest that reporting by farmers and initiatives that increase farmer education and awareness should be encouraged.     

Questionnaire analysis of BSE cases in France detected by active surveillance and the reasons for non-notification

A mandatory reporting system (MRS) was set up in France in December 1990 to detect animals showing clinical signs of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Since June 2000, four active surveillance programmes dedicated to fallen stock and slaughtered cattle have been implemented to reinforce the MRS. The clinical status of the cases detected through these programmes was investigated to understand why the MRS had failed to detect them. Up to September 1, 2002, 181 cases had been analysed (126 fallen stock and 55 slaughtered cattle). Almost all the fallen stock cases were animals which had been showing clinical signs, and two thirds of them had shown signs which should have led to a suspicion of BSE. No clinical signs had been reported for two thirds of the slaughtered cattle cases and 10 (8 per cent) of the fallen stock cases.     

A spatio-temporal analysis of BSE cases born before and after the reinforced feed ban in France

A spatio-temporal analysis was carried out to see how the risk distribution of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in France changed depending on the period of birth. The data concerned the 539 BSE cases born in France after the ban (BAB) of meat and bone meal (MBM) in 1990 and detected between July 1, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance of BSE was comprehensive. Seventy-two of these cases were born after the reinforced (second) ban (BASB) in 1996, which involved the removal of BSE-risk materials and cadavers from the processing of MBM. The Ederer-Myers-Mantel (EMM) time and space cluster test was applied, after classifying the cases by trimester and region of birth, BAB or BASB status, and dairy or beef status. Then disease mapping was performed for four successive birth periods, three for the BAB cases (January 1991 through June 1994, July 1994 through June 1995, July 1995 through June 1996), and one for the BASB (July 1996 through October 1998). It was elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method. The main finding was that the areas with the highest risk of BSE changed largely from one birth period to another; from the west, it reached the east of France for birth cohort 1994-1995 and the southwest for birth cohort 1995-1996. The EMM test identified a peak risk in this region both for dairy and beef cattle in the fall 1995. The spatial distribution of the risk for the BASB cases matched the spatial pattern of risk for the preceding BAB birth cohort quite well; this was in favour of a common origin of the infection of the BAB and BASB cases, despite the complementary control measures.     

Analysis and prediction of the BSE incidence in Ireland

Our purpose was to report the statistical methodology that was used to describe the nature of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) propagation in the Irish cattle population, to predict the number of future cases and to assess the risk to humans in terms of the number of infected animals that were processed. We used a nonlinear Poisson-regression model for the available birth-cohort data and an iterative method to compute the parameter estimates. Standard errors for the estimates were computed from the nonlinear model and these were validated using a bootstrap procedure.

We illustrated the use of the model for prediction and risk assessment using the BSE incidence data between 1981 and 2000. The change in case ascertainment or reporting level was a crucial parameter that determined the observed pattern of clinical BSE. Significant propagation risk was detected from 1985 onwards, with peaks in 1986 and 1994. The trough in the propagation risk in 1990 coincided with a ban of the use of meat-and-bone meal for ruminant feed. Excluding the newly adopted active surveillance method in 2001, the predicted and observed data were comparable.     

Collateral desmitis of the distal interphalangeal joint in 18 horses (2001-2002)

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: There have been no previously published case series of horses examined using either scintigraphy or MRI to diagnose collateral ligament injuries not detectable using ultrasonography or radiography, nor have other concurrent soft tissue lesions been described. OBJECTIVES: To describe the clinical features of horses with desmitis of the collateral ligaments of the distal interphalangeal (DIP) joint and to evaluate the results of radiographic, ultrasonographic, scintigraphic and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations. METHODS: Horses were examined between January 2001 and January 2003 and were selected for inclusion in the study if there was unequivocal evidence of collateral desmitis of the DIP joint based on ultrasonography or MRI. Subject details, case history, results of clinical examination and responses to local analgesic techniques were reviewed. The results of radiographic, ultrasonographic, scintigraphic and MRI examinations were assessed. RESULTS: Eighteen horses were identified with desmitis of a collateral ligament of the DIP joint, 3 horses (Group 1) based on ultrasonography alone, 7 (Group II) with positive ultrasonographic and magnetic resonance images and 8 (Group III) with no lesion detectable using ultrasonography, but lesions identified using MRI. Seventeen horses had forelimb injuries and one a hindlimb injury. The medial collateral ligament was injured most frequently (13 horses). In the majority of horses, no localising clinical signs were seen. Lameness was invariably worse in circles compared with straight lines. Lameness was improved by palmar digital analgesia in 16 horses (87%), but only 6 were nonlame. Intra-articular analgesia of the DIP joint produced improvement in lameness in 6/15 horses (40%). In 16 horses, no radiographic abnormality related to the DIP joint or collateral ligament attachments was identified. Eight of 14 horses (57%) had focal, moderately or intensely increased radiopharmaceutical uptake (IRU) at the site of insertion of the injured collateral ligament on the distal phalanx. Alteration in size and signal in the injured collateral ligament was identified using MRI. In addition, 5 horses had abnormal mineralisation and fluid in the distal phalanx at the insertion of the ligament. Eleven horses had concurrent soft tissue injuries involving the deep digital flexor tendon, distal sesamoidean impar ligament, navicular bursa or collateral ligament of the navicular bone. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: Collateral desmitis of the DIP joint should be considered as a cause of foot lameness. Although some injuries are detectable ultrasonographically, false negative results occur. Focal IRU at the ligament insertion on the distal phalanx may be indicative of injury in some horses. MRI is useful for both characterisation of the injury and identification of any concurrent injuries. Further follow-up information is required to determine factors influencing prognosis.