Kittiwake breeding success in the southern North Sea correlates with prior sandeel fishing mortality

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Retrospective analysis of the influence of environmental drivers on commercial stocks and fishing opportunities in the Irish Sea

Irish Sea fisheries have undergone considerable change in recent years following the decline of commercially important finfish stocks and their slow response to management's recovery plans. In 2015, the fishing industry called for a holistic exploration into the impact of environmental change and food web effects to identify the drivers underpinning stock dynamics. In this study, we identify correlations between large‐scale climatic indicators, temperature, primary and secondary productivity, and fish recruitment in the Irish Sea and incorporate them into an Ecopath with Ecosim food web model co‐created by scientists and fishers. Negative correlations were found between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and large zooplankton abundance and between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the recruitment of cod (Gadus morhua) and whiting (Merlangius merlangus). Using correlation analyses to direct the addition of environmental drivers to the Irish Sea ecosystem model improved the models fit against observed biomass and catch data and revealed the indirect impacts of environmental change as mitigated through trophic interactions. Model simulations suggest that historic environmental change suppressed the overall production of commercial finfish, limiting opportunities for the fishing industry, whilst also dampening the rate of stock recovery despite marked reductions in fishing effort. These results suggest that failure to account for ecosystem information may lead to misconceived expectations and flawed fisheries management; therefore, there is a need to operationalize ecosystem information through management procedures to support fisheries advice.     

Potential trophodynamic and environmental drivers of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) productivity in the North Pacific Ocean

Information on prey availability, diets, and trophic levels of fish predators and their prey provides a link between physical and biological changes in the ecosystem and subsequent productivity (growth and survival) of fish populations. In this study two long‐term data sets on summer diets of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in international waters of the central North Pacific Ocean (CNP; 1991–2009) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA; 1993–2002) were evaluated to identify potential drivers of steelhead productivity in the North Pacific. Stable isotopes of steelhead muscle tissue were assessed to corroborate the results of stomach content analysis. We found the composition of steelhead diets varied by ocean age group, region, and year. In both the GOA and CNP, gonatid squid (Berryteuthis anonychus) were the most influential component of steelhead diets, leading to higher prey energy densities and stomach fullness. Stomach contents during an exceptionally warm year in the GOA and CNP (1997) were characterized by high diversity of prey with low energy density, few squid, and a large amount of potentially toxic debris (e.g., plastic). Indicators of good diets (high proportions of squid and high prey energy density) were negatively correlated with abundance of wild populations of eastern Kamchatka pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) in the CNP. In conclusion, interannual variations in climate, abundance of squid, and density‐dependent interactions with highly‐abundant stocks of pink salmon were identified as potential key drivers of steelhead productivity in these ecosystems. Additional research in genetic stock identification is needed to link these potential drivers of productivity to individual populations.     

Natural mortality augments population fluctuations of forage fish

Forage fish are a vital part of marine ecosystems, partly by supporting some of the largest fisheries worldwide, but also due to their role in food webs as prey for larger fish and other predators. One of the unresolved questions about forage fish dynamics is the causes of their significant temporal fluctuations. These fluctuations are often attributed to changes in environmental conditions, but direct correlations have proven hard to find. Here, we show how time‐varying predation mortality additionally plays a substantial role in forage fish population fluctuations. By analysing 10 stocks that have estimates of natural mortality changes through time, we find that natural mortality on average increases as population biomass declines towards a trough, and to a lesser degree decreases, when their biomass is growing towards a peak. While depensatory mortality was dominant on average in biomass dynamics leading up to peaks or troughs, some of the stocks exhibited compensatory mortality emphasizing variation between stocks. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of natural mortality and productivity is generally higher than fishing mortality. The results underscore the importance of top‐down control on the dynamics of forage fish. We conclude that a holistic ecosystem analysis is required for a better ecological understanding of forage fish dynamics.     

Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study

Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem‐mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period 2010–2050. Gradual increase in temperature has a positive impact on the long‐term productivity of the herring stock, but it has the potential to enhance the recovery of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., F_msy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass (SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels (F_high), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined effects of long‐term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long‐term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long‐term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change.     

Seasonal and long‐term changes in fishing depth of Lake Constance whitefish

Abstract The ecosystem of Lake Constance in central Europe has undergone profound modifications over the last six decades. Seasonal and inter‐annual changes in the vertical distribution patterns of whitefish were examined and related to changes in biotic and abiotic gradients. Between 1958 and 2007, the average fishing depth in late summer and autumn was related to two factors influencing food supply of whitefish – lake productivity and standing stock biomass. In years with low food supply, whitefish were harvested from greater depths, where temperatures were up to 4 °C lower. The whitefish’s distribution towards colder water might be a bioenergetic optimisation behaviour whereby fish reduce metabolic losses at lower temperatures, or it may result from a reassessment of habitat preference under conditions of limited food supply, according to the ideal free distribution theory.     

Coupling ecosystem and individual‐based models to simulate the influence of environmental variability on potential growth and survival of larval sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) in the North Sea

To investigate the impact of changing environmental conditions in the North Sea on the distribution and survival of early life stages of a marine fish species, we employed a suite of coupled model components: (i) an Eulerian coupled hydrodynamic/ecosystem (Nutrients, Phyto‐, Zooplankton, Detritus) model to provide both 3‐D fields of hydrographical properties, and spatially and temporally variable prey fields; (ii) a Lagrangian transport model to simulate temporal changes in cohort distribution; and (iii) an individual‐based model (IBM) to depict foraging, growth and survival of fish early life stages. In this application, the IBM was parameterized for sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) and included non‐feeding (egg and yolk‐sac larval) stages as well as foraging and growth subroutines for feeding (post‐yolk sac) larvae. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the angle of visual acuity, assimilation efficiency and the maximum food consumption rate were the most critical intrinsic model parameters. As an example, we applied this model system for 1990 in the North Sea. Results included not only information concerning the interplay of temperature and prey availability on larval fish survival and growth but also information on mechanisms underlying larval fish aggregation within frontal zones. The good agreement between modelled and in situ estimates of sprat distribution and growth rates in the German Bight suggested that interconnecting these different models provided an expedient tool to scrutinize basic processes in fish population dynamics.     

Contributions of food web modelling to the ecosystem approach to marine resource management in the Mediterranean Sea

Ecological modelling tools are applied worldwide to support the ecosystem‐based approach of marine resources (EAM). In the last decades, numerous applications were attempted in the Mediterranean Sea, mainly using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) tool. These models were used to analyse a variety of complex environmental problems. Many applications analysed the ecosystem impacts of fishing and assessed management options. Other studies dealt with the accumulation of pollution through the food web, the impact of aquaculture or the ecosystem effects of climate change. They contributed to the scientific aspects of an ecosystem‐based approach in the region because they integrated human activities within an ecosystem context and evaluated their impact on the marine food web, including environmental factors. These studies also gathered a significant amount of information at an ecosystem level. Thus, in the second part of this review, we used this information to quantify structural and functional traits of Mediterranean marine ecosystems at regional scales as the illustration of further potentialities of EwE for an EAM. Results highlighted differential traits between ecosystem types and a few between basins, which illustrate the environmental heterogeneity of the Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, our analysis evidenced the importance of top predators and small pelagic fish in Mediterranean ecosystems, in addition to the structural role of benthos and plankton organisms. The impact of fishing was high and of a similar intensity in the western, central and eastern regions and showed differences between ecosystem types. The keystone role of species was more prominent in protected environments.     

Rebuilding Mediterranean fisheries: a new paradigm for ecological sustainability

In Mediterranean European countries, 85% of the assessed stocks are currently overfished compared to a maximum sustainable yield reference value (MSY) while populations of many commercial species are characterized by truncated size‐ and age‐structures. Rebuilding the size‐ and age‐structure of exploited populations is a management objective that combines single species targets such as MSY with specific goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAF), preserving community size‐structure and the ecological role of different species. Here, we show that under the current fishing regime, stock productivity and fleet profitability are generally impaired by a combination of high fishing mortality and inadequate selectivity patterns. For most of the stocks analysed, a simple reduction in the current fishing mortality (F_cur) towards an MSY reference value (F_MSY), without any change in the fishing selectivity, will allow neither stock biomass nor fisheries yield and revenue to be maximized. On the contrary, management targets can be achieved only through a radical change in fisheries selectivity. Shifting the size of first capture towards the size at which fish cohorts achieve their maximum biomass, the so‐called optimal length, would produce on average between two and three times higher economic yields and much higher biomass at sea for the exploited stocks. Moreover, it would contribute to restore marine ecosystem structure and resilience to enhance ecosystem services such as reservoirs of biodiversity and functioning food webs.     

Review of climate change impacts on marine fish and shellfish around the UK and Ireland

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Biogeography of pelagic food webs in the North Pacific

The tufted puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) is a generalist seabird that breeds throughout the North Pacific and eats more than 75 different prey species. Using puffins as samplers, we characterized the geographic variability in pelagic food webs across the subarctic North Pacific from the composition of ~10,000 tufted puffin meals (~56,000 prey items) collected at 35 colonies in the Gulf of Alaska (GoA) and Aleutian Archipelago. Cluster analysis of diet species composition suggested three distinct forage fish communities: (i) in the northern GoA, multiple age‐classes of coastal and shelf residents such as capelin, sand lance and herring dominated the food web, (ii) in the western GoA to eastern Aleutians, the shelf community was dominated by transient age‐0 walleye pollock, and (iii) in the western Aleutians, shelf‐edge and mesopelagic forage species such as squid, lanternfish, and Atka mackerel were prevalent. Geographic patterns of abundance of capelin and sand lance in tufted puffin diets were corroborated by independent research fisheries and diets of piscivorous fish, indicating that puffin diets reflect the local abundance of forage species, not just selection of favored species. Generalized additive models showed that habitat characteristics predict, in a non‐linear fashion, forage species distribution and abundance across two large marine ecosystems. We conclude that major biogeographic patterns in forage fish distribution follow gradients in key habitat features, and puffin diets reflect those patterns.     

The growth of larval cod and haddock in the Irish Sea: a model with temperature,prey size and turbulence forcing

We applied a physiological individual‐based model for the foraging and growth of cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) larvae, using observed temperature and prey fields data from the Irish Sea, collected during the 2006 spawning season. We used the model to estimate larval growth and survival and explore the different productivities of the cod and haddock stocks encountered in the Irish Sea. The larvae of both species showed similar responses to changes in environmental conditions (temperature, wind, prey availability, daylight hours) and better survival was predicted in the western Irish Sea, covering the spawning ground for haddock and about half of that for cod. Larval growth was predicted to be mostly prey‐limited, but exploration of stock recruitment data suggests that other factors are important to ensure successful recruitment. We suggest that the presence of a cyclonic gyre in the western Irish Sea, influencing the retention and/or dispersal of larvae from their spawning grounds, and the increasing abundance of clupeids adding predatory pressure on the eggs and larvae; both may play a key role. These two processes deserve more attention if we want to understand the mechanisms behind the recruitment of cod and haddock in the Irish Sea. For the ecosystem‐based management approach, there is a need to achieve a greater understanding of the interactions between species on the scale a fish stock is managed, and to work toward integrated fisheries management in particular when considering the effects of advection from spawning grounds and prey–predator reversal on the recovery of depleted stocks.     

Ecosystem processes are rarely included in tactical fisheries management

Fish stock productivity, and thereby sensitivity to harvesting, depends on physical (e.g. ocean climate) and biological (e.g. prey availability, competition and predation) processes in the ecosystem. The combined impacts of such ecosystem processes and fisheries have lead to stock collapses across the world. While traditional fisheries management focuses on harvest rates and stock biomass, incorporating the impacts of such ecosystem processes are one of the main pillars of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM). Although EAFM has been formally adopted widely since the 1990s, little is currently known to what extent ecosystem drivers of fish stock productivity are actually implemented in fisheries management. Based on worldwide review of more than 1200 marine fish stocks, we found that such ecosystem drivers were implemented in the tactical management of only 24 stocks. Most of these cases were in the North Atlantic and north‐east Pacific, where the scientific support is strong. However, the diversity of ecosystem drivers implemented, and in the approaches taken, suggests that implementation is largely a bottom‐up process driven by a few dedicated experts. Our results demonstrate that tactical fisheries management is still predominantly single‐species oriented taking little account of ecosystem processes, implicitly ignoring that fish stock production is dependent on the physical and biological conditions of the ecosystem. Thus, while the ecosystem approach is highlighted in policy, key aspects of it tend yet not to be implemented in actual fisheries management.     

Links between the recruitment success of northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius L.) and a regime shift on the NE Atlantic continental shelf

The distribution of northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius L.) extends from the Bay of Biscay up to Norwegian waters. However, despite its wide geographical distribution, there have been few studies on fluctuations in the European hake populations. Marine ecosystem shifts have been investigated worldwide and their influence on trophic levels has been studied, from top predator fish populations down to planktonic prey species, but there is little information on the effect of atmosphere–ocean shifts on European hake. This work analyses hake recruitment success (recruits per adult biomass) in relation to environmental changes over the period 1978–2006 in order to determine whether the regime shift identified in several abiotic and biotic variables in the North Sea also affected the Northeast Atlantic shelf oceanography. Hake recruitment success as well as parameters such as the sea surface temperature, wind patterns and copepod abundance changed significantly at the end of the 1980s, demonstrating an ecological regime shift in the Northeast Atlantic. Despite the low reproductive biomass recorded during the last decades, hake recruitment success has been higher since the change in 1989/90. The higher productivity may have sustained the population despite the intense fishing pressure; copepod abundance, warmer water temperatures and moderate eastward transport were found to be beneficial. In conclusion, in 1988/89 the Northeast Atlantic environment shifted to a favourable regime for northern hake production. This study supports the hypothesis that the hydro‐climatic regime shift that affected the North Sea in the late 1980s may have influenced a wider region, such as the Northeast Atlantic.     

Multispecies biomass dynamics models reveal effects of ocean temperature on predation of juvenile pollock in the eastern Bering Sea

Walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) supports one of the largest commercial fisheries in the world. Juvenile pollock are important forage fish in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) ecosystem, often representing the largest fraction in the diets of major Bering Sea piscivores. Large variability in the EBS pollock stock biomass in recent years has been attributed primarily to fluctuations in recruitment. It has been hypothesized that predation rates on forage fishes increase when the cold pool (a body of cold water < 2°C) is extensive and covers much of the middle continental shelf, which tends to concentrate larger predatory fishes in the outer shelf and slope regions. In contrast, young pollock appear to tolerate colder temperatures than older fish and can stay in the cold pool, thereby reducing predation. We used a multispecies modeling approach to examine the effects of the cold pool size on predation of juvenile pollock. We found that predation on age‐1 pollock by age‐3+ pollock decreased, and predation on age‐1 and age‐2 pollock by arrowtooth flounder increased with increasing bottom temperature, which was used as a proxy for the cold pool size. These results suggest that the cold pool creates spatial separation between juvenile pollock and arrowtooth flounder, but not between adult and juvenile pollock. The model developed in this study could be used to examine the effects of other covariates on interspecific interactions, help explain observed changes in fish communities, and understand implications of climate change on ecosystems and their productivity.     

Forage fish fisheries management requires a tailored approach to balance trade‐offs

Ecosystem‐based fishery management requires considering the effects of actions on social, natural and economic systems. These considerations are important for forage fish fisheries, because these species provide ecosystem services as a key prey in food webs and support valuable commercial fisheries. Forage fish stocks fluctuate naturally, and fishing may make these fluctuations more pronounced, yet harvest strategies intended to ameliorate these effects might adversely affect fisheries and communities. Here, we evaluate trade‐offs among a diverse suite of management objectives by simulating outcomes from several harvest strategies on forage fish species. We demonstrate that some trade‐offs (like those between catches and minimizing collapse length) were universal among forage species and could not be eliminated by the use of different control rules. We also demonstrate that trade‐offs vary among forage fish species, with strong trade‐offs between stable, high catches and high‐biomass periods (“bonanzas”) for menhaden‐ and anchovy‐like fish, and counterintuitive trade‐offs for sardine‐like fish between shorter collapses and longer bonanzas. We find that harvest strategies designed to maintain stability in catches will result in more severe collapses. Finally, we show that the ability of assessments to detect rapid changes in population status greatly affects control rule performance and the degree and type of trade‐offs, increasing the risk and severity of collapses and reducing catches. Together, these results demonstrate that while default harvest strategies are useful in data‐poor situations, management strategy evaluations that are tailored to specific forage fish may better balance trade‐offs.     

Comparing the roles of Pacific halibut and arrowtooth flounder within the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem and fishing economy

The fishing industry of the western and central regions of the coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGoA) directly employs over 17,000 people and processes fish with a wholesale value of US$618 million annually. Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) are a valued groundfish species because of the high quality of their flesh. In contrast, arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) are much more abundant but of low value because their flesh degrades upon heating. Both are high trophic level predators but play different roles in the ecosystem because of differences in abundance and diet. Using an end‐to‐end ecosystem model, we evaluate the impact of alternate levels of fishing effort and large‐scale changes in oceanographic conditions upon both species, the ecosystem, and the fishing economy. Reduction of longline efforts to reduce Pacific halibut mortality led to reduction in total value of all CGoA landings but increase in value landed by sport fisheries, trawl fleets, and fish pot vessels as they exploit a greater share of available halibut, sablefish, and Pacific cod. Increased trawl effort to raise arrowtooth flounder mortality led to increase in total value of all landings but large reductions in value landed by longline, jig, fish pot, and sport fleets with greater competition for available Pacific cod, halibut, and sablefish. Oceanographic conditions that enhance pelagic food chains at the expense of benthic food chains negatively impact groundfish in general, though Pacific halibut and arrowtooth flounder are resilient to these effects because of the high importance of pelagic fish in their diets.     

Seasonal potential fishing ground prediction of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the western and central North Pacific

We explored the seasonal potential fishing grounds of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the western and central North Pacific using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models fitted with squid fishery data as response and environmental factors from remotely sensed [sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), eddy kinetic energy (EKE), wind stress curl (WSC) and numerical model‐derived sea surface salinity (SSS)] covariates. The potential squid fishing grounds from January–February (winter) and June–July (summer) 2001–2004 were simulated separately and covered the near‐coast (winter) and offshore (summer) forage areas off the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition and subarctic frontal zones. The oceanographic conditions differed between regions and were regulated by the inherent seasonal variability and prevailing basin dynamics. The seasonal and spatial extents of potential squid fishing grounds were largely explained by SST (7–17°C in the winter and 11–18°C in the summer) and SSS (33.8–34.8 in the winter and 33.7–34.3 in the summer). These ocean properties are water mass tracers and define the boundaries of the North Pacific hydrographic provinces. Mesoscale variability in the upper ocean inferred from SSH and EKE were also influential to squid potential fishing grounds and are presumably linked to the augmented primary productivity from nutrient enhancement and entrainment of passive plankton. WSC, however, has the least model contribution to squid potential fishing habitat relative to the other environmental factors examined. Findings of this work underpin the importance of SST and SSS as robust predictors of the seasonal squid potential fishing grounds in the western and central North Pacific and highlight MaxEnt's potential for operational fishery application.     

Age‐based demographic assessment of fished stocks of Lethrinus nebulosus in the Gascoyne Bioregion of Western Australia

Abstract Age‐based demographic analyses were undertaken to assess the current status of fished stocks of spangled emperor, Lethrinus nebulosus (Forsskål) in the Gascoyne Bioregion of Western Australia. Differences in age and growth characteristics were detected for samples collected from different assessment zones, with North Gascoyne fish observed to grow faster and reach a shorter average maximum length and younger average age than South Gascoyne fish. A significant difference in North Gascoyne catch‐at‐age data from different time periods demonstrated historical effects of fishing on population age structure. Instantaneous rates of fishing mortality (F) from catch‐curve analyses of age – frequency data sampled for the North Gascoyne stock from recreational fishing catches from April 2007 to March 2008 were beyond the limit reference point compared with estimated instantaneous rates of natural mortality (M) (i.e. F > 1.5M), indicating that there is currently a risk to the sustainability of that stock.     

Stock assessment and management for walleye pollock in Japan

We review the stock assessment strategies and management procedures for walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma in Japan. In Japan, walleye pollock is classified into 4 stocks. Because biological data, fishing conditions, etc. are different for each stock, the stocks are assessed by different methods. Harvest strategies aiming at stock recovery are proposed for the Northern Japan Sea stock and the Nemuro Strait stock, which are currently in poor condition. For the Japanese Pacific stock and the Southern Okhotsk Sea stock, which are in good condition, harvest strategies for current fishery operations are proposed. In Japan, fisheries co-management has traditionally been carried out, and in recent years a total catch limitation system called the total allowable catch, a resource recovery plan, and a resource management plan have also been implemented. Although a plan is devised that accounts for the stock conditions of walleye pollock, it is also necessary to consider socioeconomic factors, ecosystem factors, and so on. However, we consider that the main focus of stock management for walleye pollock will still be maintaining fishing pressure at an appropriate level, which includes regulating fish size and price during the fishing season.