Land-use and land-cover dynamics in response to changes in climatic,biological and socio-political forces: the case of southwestern Ethiopia

Few studies of land-use/land-cover change provide an integrated assessment of the driving forces and consequences of that change, particularly in Africa. Our objectives were to determine how driving forces at different scales change over time, how these forces affect the dynamics and patterns of land use/land cover, and how land-use/land-cover change affects ecological properties at the landscape scale. To accomplish these objectives, we first developed a way to identify the causes and consequences of change at a landscape scale by integrating tools from ecology and the social sciences and then applied these methods to a case study in Ghibe Valley, southwestern Ethiopia. Maps of land-use/land-cover change were created from aerial photography and Landsat TM imagery for the period, 1957–1993. A method called `ecological time lines' was developed to elicit landscape-scale explanations for changes from long-term residents. Cropland expanded at twice the speed recently (1987–1993) than two decades ago (1957–1973), but also contracted rapidly between 1973–1987. Rapid land-use/land cover change was caused by the combined effects of drought and migration, changes in settlement and land tenure policy, and changes in the severity of the livestock disease, trypanosomosis, which is transmitted by the tsetse fly. The scale of the causes and consequences of land-use/land-cover change varied from local to sub-national (regional) to international and the links between causes and consequences crossed scales. At the landscape scale, each cause affected the location and pattern of land use/land cover differently. The contraction of cropland increased grass biomass and cover, woody plant cover, the frequency and extent of savanna burning, and the abundance of wildlife. With recent control of the tsetse fly, these ecological changes are being reversed. These complex patterns are discussed in the context of scaling issues and current conceptual models of land-use/land-cover change.     

Nutrient flows and land use change in a rural catchment: a modelling approach

Due largely to unprecedented land-use changes in the Porijõgi River catchment (southern Estonia) losses of nutrients and organic matter have decreased significantly. During the period 1987–1997 abandoned lands increased from 1.7 to 10.5% and arable lands decreased from 41.8 to 23.9%. At the same time, the runoff of total-N, total-P, SO₄ and organic matter (after BOD₅) decreased from 25.9 to 5.1, 0.32 to 0.13, 78 to 48, and 7.4 to 3.5 kg ha^–1 yr^–1, respectively. The most significant decreases occurred in agricultural subcatchments while the changes were insignificant in the forested upper course catchment. A simple empirical model which incorporates land-use pattern, fertilization intensity, soil parameters and water discharge accurately described the variations of total-N and total-P runoff in both the whole catchment and its agricultural subcatchments (R ² varies from 0.95–0.99 for N to 0.49–0.93 for P). In small agricultural subcatchments the rate of fertilization is found the most important factor for nitrogen runoff, whereas in larger mosaic watersheds land use pattern plays the main role. Seven alternative scenarios compiled on the base of the empirical model allow to forecast potential nitrogen and phosphorus losses from the catchment. This information can be used in further landscape and regional planning of the whole region.     

Habitat loss, Fragmentation, and Alteration – Quantifying the Impactof Land-use Changes on a Spanish Dehesa Landscape by Use of Aerial Photography and GIS

Mediterranean agroforestry landscapes, dehesas, experience significant structural changes that affect their ability to support habitats for a rich biodiversity. The goal of this study is to provide quantitative information on loss, fragmentation, and alteration of holm oak (Quercus ilex) stands over a 42-year period, based on two sites in the lowlands of Cáceres province, Spain. Aerial photography and orthoimages from 1956, 1984, and 1998 were processed in a geographic information system (GIS). Important changes in demography and land-use were rural depopulation, abandonment of traditional agricultural activities, and a sharp increase in livestock stocking levels. These were related to intensification and extensification of land-uses determined by national and EU agricultural policies. Results of the land cover analysis indicated that dehesas suffered an annual 0.27% and 0.04% decrease in cover in the two sites. From 1984 loss rate had markedly accelerated (0.83% and 0.30%). Most dehesas were lost by shrub encroachment or conversion to open grassland. Fragmentation through roads increased by 28% and 45%, while rural buildings decreased by 17% and 50% from 1956 to 1998. Mean tree density decreased from 1956 to 1984, but a recovery was found since 1984. Significant factors determining stand densities in most time points were altitude (related with different land-uses and geological substrates), ownership, and proximity to villages. This suggests that stand structure is controlled both by human interventions and ecological settings. The findings support the view that opposite trends of land abandonment and intensification of land-uses arise in most northern Mediterranean countries as an effect of the EU Common Agricultural Policy.     

Forestry expansion and land-use patterns in the Nelson Region,New Zealand

The expansion of plantation forestry in New Zealandduring the last century has altered the landscape and will continue to do so in the future. The implementation of recent resource management policy, the 1991 Resource Management Act (RMA), will also influence the impact of future plantation expansion on the landscape. It is necessary to analyze current land-use patterns in order to predict effects on future landscapes. This study analyzed the current land-use patterns of the Nelson region by examining the relationship between land-use and site conditions and by characterizing the distribution pattern of land-use depending on distance from the city. The distribution pattern was considered from an economic perspective, based on the Barlowe’s model of land use distribution. The relationship between the current land-use pattern and previous land management policy was also examined using the Land Use Capability. Consequently, in addition to the physical attributes of the land, the influence of land-use management policy was obvious. Thus the RMA will undoubtedly influence land-use changes in the future. It is therefore necessary to understand the factors determining changes in land-use patterns in conjunction with the district plan of the RMA to predict future changes in land-use.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Wildfires and landscape patterns in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula

The relations between disturbance regime and landscape patterns have been developed from a theoretical perspective, but few studies have tested these relations when forces promoting opposing heterogeneity patterns are simultaneously operating on a landscape. This work provides quantitative evidence of these relations in areas dominated by human activity, showing that landscape heterogeneity decreases disturbance spread. In turn, disturbance introduces a source of landscape heterogeneity, but it is not enough to counterbalance the homogeneity trend due to agricultural abandonment. Land cover changes and wildfire occurrence (fires larger than 0.3 km²) have been monitored in the Tivissa municipality (208.4 km²) (Catalonia, NE Spain) from 1956 to 1993. Land cover maps were obtained from 1956, 1978 and 1993 and they were overlaid with fire occurrence maps obtained for the 1975–1995 period from 60 m resolution remote sensing images, which allow the identification of burned areas by sudden drops in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Changes in landscape patterns in relation to fire regime have been analyzed considering several parameters: patch density, mean patch size, mean distance to the nearest neighbour of the same category, edge density, and the Shannon diversity index. In the 1956–1993 period there is a trend to increasing landscape homogenization due to the expansion of shrub­lands linked to a decrease in forest surface, and to the abandonment of agricultural lands. This trend, however, is not constant along all the period. Fires are more likely to occur in woody, homogenous areas, increasing landscape heterogeneity, as observed in the 1978–1993 period. This increase in heterogeneity does not counterbalance the general trend to landscape homogenization as a consequence of agricultural abandonment and the coalescence of natural vegetation patches.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Temporal (1958–1995) pattern of change in a cultural landscape of northwestern Portugal: implications for fire occurrence

In this paper we test the hypothesis that landscape changes in a region of Northern Portugal (Minho) in the last 40 years could be predicted from socioeconomic and political history. The major predicted changes were related to agricultural abandonment and afforestation. We further predicted that these changes contributed to increased fire risk. Analysis of aerial photography for the years 1958, 1968, 1983 and 1995 in a study area of 3700 ha revealed a significant decline in agricultural areas and low shrublands and an increase in tall shrublands and forests. This represented a 20–40% increase in fuel accumulation at a landscape level, suggesting that the abandonment of farming activities is a major driving force of increasing fire occurrence in the region. With one exception, all the predictions were partly or totally confirmed. This study confirms that socioeconomic factors might explain a significant part of the variation in landscape composition across time, in the Mediterranean region.     

Analysis and simulation of land-use change in the central Arizona – Phoenix region,USA

To understand how urbanization has transformed the desert landscape in the central Arizona – Phoenix region of the United States, we conducted a series of spatial analyses of the land-use pattern from 1912–1995. The results of the spatial analysis show that the extent of urban area has increased exponentially for the past 83 years, and this urban expansion is correlated with the increase in population size for the same period of time. The accelerating urbanization process has increased the degree of fragmentation and structural complexity of the desert landscape. To simulate land-use change we developed a Markov-cellular automata model. Model parameters and neighborhood rules were obtained both empirically and with a modified genetic algorithm. Land-use maps for 1975 and 1995 were used to implement the model at two distinct spatial scales with a time step of one year. Model performance was evaluated using Monte-Carlo confidence interval estimation for selected landscape pattern indices. The coarse-scale model simulated the statistical patterns of the landscape at a higher accuracy than the fine-scale model. The empirically derived parameter set poorly simulated land-use change as compared to the optimized parameter set. In summary, our results showed that landscape pattern metrics (patch density, edge density, fractal dimension, contagion) together were able to effectively capture the trend in land-use associated with urbanization for this region. The Markov-cellular automata parameterized by a modified genetic algorithm reasonably replicated the change in land-use pattern.     

Spatial sensitivity of species habitat patterns to scenarios of land use change (Switzerland)

Long-term societal trends which include decreasing population in structurally poorer regions and changes in agricultural policies have been leading to land abandonment in various regions of Europe. One of the consequences of this development includes spontaneous forest regeneration of formerly open-land habitats with likely significant effects on plant and animal diversity. We assess potential effects of agricultural decline in Switzerland (41,000 km²) and potential impacts on the spatial distribution of seven open-land species (insects, reptile, birds) under land-use change scenarios: (1) a business-as-usual scenario that extrapolates trends observed during the last 15 years into the future, (2) a liberalisation scenario with limited regulation, and (3) a lowered agricultural production scenario fostering conservation. All scenarios were developed in collaboration with socio-economists. Results show that spontaneous reforestation is potentially minor in the lowlands since combinations of socio-economic (better accessibility), topographic (less steep slopes), and climatic factors (longer growing seasons) favour agricultural use and make land abandonment less likely. Land abandonment, spontaneous reforestation, and subsequent loss of open-land, however, are potentially pronounced in mountainous areas except where tourism is a major source of income. Here, socio-economic and natural conditions for cultivation are more difficult, leading to higher abandonment and thus reforestation likelihood. Evaluations for open-land species core habitats indicate pronounced spatial segregation of expected landscape change. Habitat losses (up to 59%) are observed throughout the country, particularly at high elevation sites in the Northern Alps. Habitat gains under the lowered agricultural production scenario range between 12 and 41% and are primarily observed for the Plateau and the Northern Alps.     

Spatial pattern of coniferous and deciduous forest patches in an Eastern North America agricultural landscape: the influence of land use and physical attributes

In agricultural landscapes, most studies have investigated the influence of the spatial pattern of forest patches on other ecological phenomena and processes, such as animal movement and biodiversity. However, few have focused on explaining the spatial pattern of the forest patches themselves. Understanding how these patterns relate to the processes that generate them is fundamental in developing a sound theory of landscape ecology, and in devising rational management strategies. In this paper, the pattern of the overall forest patches, as well as the pattern of deciduous and coniferous patches in an agricultural landscape of Southern Quebec, Canada, were analyzed and related to landscape physical attributes and land use, using remote sensing, geographic information systems and statistical methods. Results show that the role of landscape physical attributes on forest patch pattern has been modified by land use. In the study area, coniferous or deciduous patches are not associated with a specific surface deposit. In addition, physical attributes explain only a small proportion of the abundance of conifers on past abandoned land compared with land-use factors. Physical attributes only indirectly influence the forest pattern because they strongly influence the land-use practices. Our results reveal a conifer recovery process with the abandonment of agricultural land. On past abandoned land, conifers expand with increasing stand age, mostly by invasion from neighboring coniferous patches. Spatially, coniferous patches are usually located on the margins of the overall forest patches, and they are connected to non-forest land-use types such as crop and pasture, the latter being the most important. By showing the importance of some coniferous forest types that did not exist in the precolonial forest, a new perspective emerges when landscape, especially, land-use dynamics are taken into account.     

Multi-scale study of bird species distribution and of their response to vegetation change: a Mediterranean example

Land use changes operate at different scales. They trigger a cascade of effects that simultaneously modify the composition or structure of the landscape and of the local vegetation. Mobil animals, and birds in particular, can respond quickly to such multi-scalar changes. We took advantage of a long term study on the response of songbirds to land-use changes on four Mediterranean islands in Corsica and Sardinia to explore the benefits of a multi-scale analysis of the relationships between songbird distribution, vegetation structure and landscape dynamics. Field data and aerial photographs were used to describe the vegetation at three different scales. Birds were censused by point counts. We used statistical variance decomposition to study how bird distribution and vegetation at various scales were linked. We analysed multi-scale vegetation changes (floristic composition, plot vegetation type, and landscape structure) and their consequences on bird distribution with multivariate and non-parametrical tests. The distribution of most species was linked to at least two spatial scales. The weight of a given scale was consistent with life-history traits for species whose biology was well-known. In the examples studied, vegetation composition, vegetation type and landscape changes that resulted from land abandonment negatively affected birds depending on open or heterogeneous areas. Our results emphasize that multi-scale analyses can greatly enhance our understanding of bird distribution and of their changes. Management of these populations should take into account measures at various spatial scales depending on the sensitivity of the species.     

The influences of land-use changes on hydrology and riparian environment in a northern Japanese landscape

Temporal changes in a hydrological system and riparian ecosystem were examined with reference to land-use conversion in order to clarify the linkages between these two systems. First, the hydrological system of the Toikanbetsu River basin was divided into three components that measure water retention, inundation and conveyance. Variation in the hydrological system was expressed as a basis of delineating the three components and estimating their functions. The rainfall-runoff system was also examined using a model which can predict responses of surface-, subsurface- and base flows on rainfall intensity. Second, areas and fragmentation of the riparian forests, maximum stream temperature in summer and amount of coarse woody debris (CWD) were selected as parameters indicating the condition of the riparian ecosystem. Temporal changes in stream temperature and amount of CWD were estimated using multiple regression analysis and analysis of variance, respectively. The results indicated that the hydrological system has been altered since the 1970s, increasing flood peaks by 1.5–2.5 times and shortening peak appearance by 7 hours. Riparian forests have been disappearing since the 1960s due to extensive development of agricultural lands and river channelization. The summer maximum stream temperature increased from 22 °C in 1947 to 28 °C at present. The amount of CWD should substantially decrease with river channelization and associated forest cutting. Fish favoring cool water, such as masu salmon, could survive in 1947 although they are forced to migrate to cooler forested upstream tributaries now. The ecological systems were closely related to and distinctly altered by land-use. Finally, we propose a new perspective for understanding the two interrelated systems. Riparian ecosystems can be restored by restoring water retention and inundation functions, which also reduce the flood hazard generated by elevated flood peaks.     

How do land-use legacies affect ecosystem services in United States cultural landscapes?

Context

Landscape-scale studies of ecosystem services (ES) have increased, but few consider land-use history. Historical land use may be especially important in cultural landscapes, producing legacies that influence ecosystem structure, function, and biota that in turn affect ES supply.

Objectives

Our goal was to generate a conceptual framework for understanding when land-use legacies matter for ES supply in well-studied agricultural, urban, and exurban US landscapes.

Methods

We synthesized illustrative examples from published literature in which landscape legacies were demonstrated or are likely to influence ES.

Results

We suggest three related conditions in which land-use legacies are important for understanding current ES supply. (1) Intrinsically slow ecological processes govern ES supply, illustrated for soil-based and hydrologic services impaired by slowly processed pollutants. (2) Time lags between land-use change and ecosystem responses delay effects on ES supply, illustrated for biodiversity-based services that may experience an ES debt. (3) Threshold relationships exist, such that changes in ES are difficult to reverse, and legacy lock-in disconnects contemporary landscapes from ES supply, illustrated by hydrologic services. Mismatches between contemporary landscape patterns and mechanisms underpinning ES supply yield unexpected patterns of ES.

Conclusions

Today’s land-use decisions will generate tomorrow’s legacies, and ES will be affected if processes underpinning ES are affected by land-use legacies. Research priorities include understanding effects of urban abandonment, new contaminants, and interactions of land-use legacies and climate change. Improved understanding of historical effects will improve management of contemporary ES, and aid in decision-making as new challenges to sustaining cultural landscapes arise.

     

Land use and forest cover on private parcels in the Upper Midwest USA, 1970 to 1990

This paper analyzes the interactions between land use and forest cover in the Upper Midwest, USA from 1970 to 1990. New data are presented and interpreted to evaluate the effects of land-use changes, especially abandonment of agriculture and dispersed development, on forest cover throughout the region. Forest-cover data were collected from Landsat satellite imagery and land use was interpreted from aerial photographs for land parcels, based on archival maps of land ownership. In general, forest cover increased throughout the region and throughout the period. Simultaneously, the area used for agriculture declined, much of it being converted to natural uses, and the area of land in low density residential development increased. Forest cover increased most rapidly on low density residential lands and in counties in which a large percentage of homes were for seasonal use (i.e., vacation homes). The data suggest that the transformation of the region from an extractive (i.e., forestry and agriculture) to a recreation-based service economy has played a significant role in the increasing forest cover observed throughout the region. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Assessing source-sink stability in the context of management and land-use change

Context

Management actions and land-use change can disrupt interdependent population processes, re-define population networks, and change source-sink dynamics. Yet we know little about the types of changes that can de-stabilize source-sink dynamics and how such changes could affect management decisions.

Objectives

We examined the degree to which source-sink status and strength could change under a range of management actions and land-use change scenarios including different patterns and extents of habitat loss, restoration, demographic improvements from parasitism control, and increased frequencies inter-population movement.

Methods

We developed an empirically-rich, spatially explicit, individual-based model for the formerly endangered Black-capped vireo in Texas. We simulated the network-wide consequences of different kinds of changes and compared the resulting source-sink strength, status, and regional abundance across scenarios. We gauged source-sink stability by the degree to which system changes caused the reversal of source or sink status.

Results

The stability of source-sink characterizations differed with the type of change. Source-sink dynamics were less responsive to small changes to population structure and changes that minimally affected demographic conditions. Source-sink status was most responsive to changes that affected habitat patterns and quality.

Conclusions

Accurately classifying sources and sinks is challenging, particularly in variable and directionally changing systems. The stability of source-sink classifications depends on the type of management or land-use change. Management actions may need to weigh interventions that improve regional abundance against those that alter regional source-sink dynamics as abundance and source-sink states can be sensitive to different kinds of change.

     

The impact of shifting cultivation on a rainforest landscape in West Kalimantan: spatial and temporal dynamics

To assess the role of shifting cultivation in the loss of rainforests in Indonesia, we examined the spatial and temporal dynamics of traditional land-use north of Gunung Palung National Park in West Kalimantan. We analyzed the abundance, size, frequency, and stature (by tree size) of discrete management units (patches) as a function of land-use category and distance from the village. Data were gathered from point samples along six 1.5-km transects through the landscape surrounding the Dayak village of Kembera. Most land was managed for rice, with 5% in current production, 12% in wet-rice fallows (regenerating swamp forest), and 62% in dry-rice fallows (regenerating upland forest). The proportion of land in dry-rice increased with distance from the village; rubber gardens (17% of the total area), dominated close to the village. The size of rubber trees declined with distance, reflecting the recent establishment of rubber gardens far from the village. Fruit gardens accounted for only 4% of the area. From interviews in Kembera and three other villages, we estimated rates of primary forest clearing and documented changes in land-use. Most rice fields were cleared from secondary forest fallows. However, 17% of dry-rice fields and 9% of wet-rice fields were cleared from primary forest in 1990, resulting in the loss of approximately 12 ha of primary forest per village. Almost all dry-rice fields cleared from primary forest were immediately converted to rubber gardens, as were 39% of all dry-rice fields cleared from fallows. The rate of primary forest conversion increased dramatically from 1990 to 1995, due not to soil degradation or population growth but rather to changes in the socio-economic and political environment faced by shifting cultivators. Although the loss of primary forest is appreciable under shifting cultivation, the impact is less than that of the major alternative land-uses in the region: timber extraction and oil palm plantations.     

A Markov model of land-use change dynamics in the Niagara Region,Ontario, Canada

Regional Niagara is the site of an intense three-way land-use conflict among urban, agricultural and natural uses. Large scale spatial and temporal land-use data were used to investigate the dynamics of land-use change in this area. A first order Markov chain was used as a stochastic model to make quantitative comparisons of the land-use changes between discrete time periods extending from 1935 to 1981. The Markov model allowed for two main conclusions about the historic dynamics of land-use change in the Regional Municipality of Niagara.

1. The urbanization of agricultural land was the predominant land-use change.
2. A continuing ‘exchange’ of land area occurs between wooded and agricultural land-use categories that has little effect on the net amount of wooded land but which could undermine the long-term ecological value of remaining natural areas in Niagara.

     

A mathematical partitioning of the effects of habitat loss and habitat degradation on species abundance

Context

Worldwide, anthropogenic habitat loss and degradation have led to substantial biodiversity declines. Preserving biodiversity requires an understanding of how habitat loss and degradation interact to impact species populations, and how land-use decisions can limit these losses.

Objectives

We present a mathematical partitioning of changes in landscape-level population abundance in response to land-use change using a modified version of the Price equation from evolutionary biology.

Methods

The Price equation partitions changes in species abundance into multiple drivers related to habitat loss, habitat degradation, and their interaction. We describe its development and exemplify its applicability using simulated data.

Results

Applying the Price equation to simulated data reveals the roles of habitat loss, habitat degradation, and their interaction in driving population change in patchy landscapes undergoing complex land-use change processes.

Conclusions

The Price equation is a theoretical tool that may enhance our understanding of the effects of land-use change on populations by accounting for the specific processes by which land-use change operates across landscapes.

     

Estimation and prediction of plant species richness in a mosaic landscape

Traditional agricultural mosaic landscapes are likely to undergo dramatic changes through either intensification or abandonment of land use. Both developmental trends may negatively affect the vascular plant species richness of such landscapes. Therefore, sustainable land-use systems need to be developed to maintain and re-establish species richness at various spatial scales. To evaluate the sustainability of specific land-use systems, we need approaches for the effective assessment of the present species richness and models that can predict the effects on species richness as realistically as possible. In this context, we present a methodology to estimate and predict vascular plant species richness at the local and the regional scale. In our approach, the major determinants of vascular plant species richness within the study area are taken into consideration: These are according to Duelli's mosaic concept the number of habitat types and of habitat patches within area units. Furthermore, it is based on the relative frequencies of species within habitat types. Our approach comprises six steps: (i) the determination of present habitat patterns within an observation area, (ii) the creation of a land-use scenario with simulated habitat patterns, (iii) the determination of species frequencies within habitat types of this area, (iv) a grouping of habitat-specific species, (v) the estimation of the probabilities for all species (or habitat specialists) to occur, either in stepwise, exponentially enlarged landscape tracts (local scale), or in the entire observation area (regional scale), and (vi) the validation of the estimated species numbers. The approach will be exemplified using data from the municipal district of Erda, Lahn-Dill Highlands, Germany. The current species numbers to be expected on the basis of probability calculations were compared with those recorded on the basis of extensive field work. This comparison shows that, on the basis of our simple calculations, the current local plant species richness can be predicted well, with a slight underestimation. This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatial patterns of Mediterranean land abandonment and related land cover transitions

In Mediterranean France, land abandonment is a widespread change. To understand and predict the land abandonment process and its consequences, land cover change models are used. An essential step in the development of a land cover change model is the identification and quantification of the factors controlling land cover change. In this paper we present a change detection study using aerial photographs in combination with an extensive dataset of field data and geographical data, to identify and quantify these factors for a study area in Mediterranean France, 60 km west of the city of Montpellier. We distinguished 11 land cover change classes and 7 associated “time since abandonment” classes at a detailed scale. Several environmental and non-environmental factors were found to be important variables for the land abandonment process. Differences in soil class explain a large part of the land abandonment pattern and the associated transition paths and transition rates. Most abandoned lands are located on regosols and lithosols, which are marginal soils with respect to water holding capacity. Within soil classes, we could recognise different transition paths and transition rates. However, within the 55 years covered by this dataset detailed transitions from pioneer vegetation to vegetation higher in the succession, as described by other authors, were only found for a limited number of vegetation/soil combinations. We relate these slow transitions for some areas to ongoing grazing and for some other areas to irreversible degradation.