Applying fire connectivity and centrality measures to mitigate the cheatgrass-fire cycle in the arid West,USA

Context

Strategic placement of fuel treatments across large landscapes is an important step to mitigate the collective effects of fires interacting over broad spatial and temporal extents. On landscapes where highly invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is increasing fire activity, such an approach could help maintain landscape resilience.

Objectives

Our objectives are to 1) model and map fire connectivity on a cheatgrass-invaded landscape, as well as the centrality of large cheatgrass patches, in order to inform a landscape fuel treatment (i.e., a network of greenstrips); and 2) evaluate the modeled greenstrip network based on changes to cheatgrass patch centrality.

Methods

Our analysis covers 485-km² on the Kaibab National Forest in Northern Arizona. We apply a circuit-theoretic model of fire connectivity between all pairs of large cheatgrass patches. Based on these results, we calculate a measure of centrality for each patch to inform fuel treatment placement. We evaluate the modeled greenstrip network by comparing the pre- and post-treatment centrality of each patch.

Results

After modeling fire connectivity across the landscape, we identify 25 of 68 large cheatgrass patches with relatively high centrality. When we simulate greenstrips around these focal patches, model results suggest that they are effective in reducing the centrality for at least 19 of the 25 patches.

Conclusions

Fire connectivity models provide robust network centrality measures, which can help generate multiple, landscape fuel treatment alternatives and facilitate on-the-ground decisions. The extension of these methods is well suited for landscape fuels management in other vegetation communities and ecosystems.

     

Ecological network design from occurrence data by simulating species perception of the landscape

Context

Ecological networks are often designed based on the degree of suitability and permeability of land cover classes, as obtained by estimating the statistical relationships between occurrence data and classes coverage using habitat suitability models (HSMs). Considering only the classes coverage, but not their spatial arrangement, frequently prevents HSMs from correctly identifying nodes and connectivity elements.

Objectives

We propose a new approach in the design of ecological networks starting from the relationship between occurrence data and both land cover classes coverage and spatial arrangement, as calculated for different simulated species perceptions of the landscape (SSPLs, corresponding to different combinations of classes alternatively assuming the role of nodes, connectivity elements, or matrix).

Methods

The approach consists of comparing the ability to explain the observed species occurrence of both the nodes coverage and the connectivity degree provided by both nodes and connectivity elements, calculated for each SSPL. The better performing SSPL will provide information about the land cover classes that should be considered in designing an ecological network for the species, as well as their role in the network.

Results

When applied to the Hazel Dormouse in an agricultural landscape in northern Italy, the method proved effective and allowed us to identify woodlands and hedgerows as nodes, and poplar cultivations, biomasses and reforestations as connectivity elements.

Conclusions

The proposed method can be adopted to identify nodes and connectivity elements for virtually every species sensitive to fragmentation, and has important practical implications when integrated in landscape management plans developed to guarantee ecological connectivity.

     

Using operating area size and adjacency constraints to mitigate the effects of harvesting activities on boreal caribou habitat

Context

Sustained timber harvesting conflicts with the long-term viability of boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations. The spatial arrangement of harvest blocks in the landscape could mitigate the impact of logging on caribou populations. For the forest industry, however, these measures represent constraints that reduce the annual allowable cut (AAC).

Objective

Estimate the long-term impacts of spatial constraints to harvesting, applied alone or in combination, on AAC and boreal caribou populations.

Methods

We divided a 30,000 km² region into 20 harvest block sizes varying from 50 to 1000 km², and modeled the implementation of spatially explicit harvest schedule plans in combination with wildfire and caribou population dynamics. We then evaluated the probability of persistence of boreal caribou populations.

Results

The probability of maintaining an AAC target declined with increasing target AAC, increasing size of operating area, and increasing adjacency constraints. In contrast, the probability of maintaining caribou populations declined with increasing AAC, decreasing size of operating areas, and decreasing adjacency constraints. An increase in operating area size from 50 to 300 km² produced a considerable gain in AAC for all adjacency constraints.

Conclusions

Because adjacency constraints led only to a small increase in the probability of maintaining caribou populations, we recommend adopting less constraining landscape management actions, such as a 70-year period between two consecutive harvests in the same ~300-km² operating area.

     

Landscape configuration alters spatial arrangement of terrestrial-aquatic subsidies in headwater streams

Context

Freshwater ecosystems depend on surrounding terrestrial landscape for resources. Most important are terrestrial leaf litter subsidies, which differ depending on land use. We lack a good understanding of the variation of these inputs across spatial scales.

Objectives

We sought to determine: (1) the relative importance of local versus catchment-level forestation for benthic leaf litter biomass in streams, (2) how landscape configuration alters these relationships, and (3) how land use affects the quality and diversity of leaf litter subsidies.

Methods

We measured biomass and identity of benthic leaf litter in 121 reaches in 10 independent catchments seasonally over the course of a year. We assessed direct and indirect effects of forestation, reach position, and seasonality on leaf litter biomass using structural equation models, and assessed how leaf litter diversity varied with land use.

Results

In catchments with forested headwaters, the degree of forestation and reach position in the catchment influenced benthic leaf litter biomass indirectly through local reach-scale forestation. In catchments where forest was only located downstream, or with minimal forest, none of these factors influenced reach-level benthic leaf litter. Leaf litter diversity peaked in fall in all land use types, but was generally lowest in forested reaches.

Conclusions

Not only habitat amount, but its location relative to other habitats is important for ecosystem function in the context of cross-ecosystem material flows. Here, lack of upstream forest altered spatial patterns of leaf litter storage. Studies with high spatiotemporal resolution may further reveal effects of landscape configuration on other ecosystems.

     

Fire legacies impact conifer regeneration across environmental gradients in the U.S. northern Rockies

Context

An increase in the incidence of large wildfires worldwide has prompted concerns about the resilience of forest ecosystems, particularly in the western U.S., where recent changes are linked with climate warming and 20th-century land management practices.

Objectives

To study forest resilience to recent wildfires, we examined relationships among fire legacies, landscape features, ecological conditions, and patterns of post-fire conifer regeneration.

Methods

We quantified regeneration across 182 sites in 21 recent large fires in dry mixed-conifer forests of the U.S. northern Rockies. We used logistic and negative binomial regression to predict the probability of establishment and abundance of conifers 5–13 years post-fire.

Results

Seedling densities varied widely across all sites (0–127,500 seedlings ha^?1) and were best explained by variability in distance to live seed sources (β = ?0.014, p = 0.002) and pre-fire tree basal area (β = 0.072, p = 0.008). Beyond 95 m from the nearest live seed source, the probability of seedling establishment was low. Across all the fires we studied, 75 % of the burned area with high tree mortality was within this 95-m threshold, suggesting the presence of live seed trees to facilitate natural regeneration.  

Conclusions

Combined with the mix of species present within the burn mosaic, dry mixed-conifer forests will be resilient to large fires across our study region, provided that seedlings survive, fire do not become more frequent, high-severity patches do not get significantly larger, and post-fire climate conditions remain suitable for seedling establishment and survival.

     

The plant functional traits that explain species occurrence across fragmented grasslands differ according to patch management,isolation, and wetness

Context

Landscape fragmentation significantly affects species distributions by decreasing the number and connectivity of suitable patches. While researchers have hypothesized that species functional traits could help in predicting species distribution in a landscape, predictions should depend on the type of patches available and on the ability of species to disperse and grow there.

Objectives

To explore whether different traits can explain the frequency of grassland species (number of occupied patches) and/or their occupancy (ratio of occupied to suitable patches) across a variety of patch types within a fragmented landscape.

Methods

We sampled species distributions over 1300 grassland patches in a fragmented landscape of 385 km² in the Czech Republic. Relationships between functional traits and species frequency and occupancy were tested across all patches in the landscape, as well as within patches that shared similar management, wetness, and isolation.

Results

Although some traits predicting species frequency also predicted occupancy, others were markedly different, with competition- and dispersal-related traits becoming more important for occupancy. Which traits were important differed for frequency and occupancy and also differed depending on patch management, wetness, and isolation.

Conclusions

Plant traits can provide insight into plant distribution in fragmented landscapes and can reveal specific abiotic, biotic, and dispersal processes affecting species occurrence in a patch type. However, the importance of individual traits depends on the type of suitable patches available within the landscape.

     

The past and future of modeling forest dynamics: from growth and yield curves to forest landscape models

Context

Quantitative models of forest dynamics have followed a progression toward methods with increased detail, complexity, and spatial extent.

Objectives

We highlight milestones in the development of forest dynamics models and identify future research and application opportunities.

Methods

We reviewed milestones in the evolution of forest dynamics models from the 1930s to the present with emphasis on forest growth and yield models and forest landscape models We combined past trends with emerging issues to identify future needs.

Results

Historically, capacity to model forest dynamics at tree, stand, and landscape scales was constrained by available data for model calibration and validation; computing capacity; model applicability to real-world problems; and ability to integrate biological, social, and economic drivers of change. As computing and data resources improved, a new class of spatially explicit forest landscape models emerged.

Conclusions

We are at a point of great opportunity in development and application of forest dynamics models. Past limitations in computing capacity and in data suitable for model calibration or evaluation are becoming less restrictive. Forest landscape models, in particular, are ready to transition to a central role supporting forest management, planning, and policy decisions.

Recommendations

Transitioning forest landscape models to a central role in applied decision making will require greater attention to evaluating performance; building application support staffs; expanding the included drivers of change, and incorporating metrics for social and economic inputs and outputs.

     

Using landscape graphs to delineate ecologically functional areas

Context

Landscape graphs are widely used to model connectivity and to support decision-making in conservation planning. Compartmentalization methods applied to such graphs aim to define clusters of highly interconnected patches. Recent studies show that compartmentalization based on modularity is suitable, but it applies to non-weighted graphs whereas most landscape graphs involve weighted nodes and links.

Objectives

We propose to adapt modularity computation to weighted landscape graphs and to validate the relevance of the resulting compartments using demographic or genetic data about the patches.

Methods

A weighted adjacency matrix was designed to express potential fluxes, associating patch capacities and inter-patch distances. Eight weighting scenarios were compared. The statistical evaluation of each compartmentalization was based on Wilks’ Lambda. These methods were performed on a grassland network where patches are documented by annual densities of water voles in the Jura massif (France).

Results

The scenarios in which patch capacity is assigned a small weight led to the more relevant results, giving high modularity values and low Wilks’ Lambda values. When considering a fixed number of compartments, we found a significant negative correlation between these two criteria. Comparison showed that compartments are ecologically more valid than graph components.

Conclusions

The method proposed is suitable for designing ecologically functional areas from weighted landscape graphs. Maximum modularity values can serve as a guide for setting the parameters of the adjacency matrix.

     

Getting to the root of the matter: landscape implications of plant-fungal interactions for tree migration in Alaska

Context

Forecasting the expansion of forest into Alaska tundra is critical to predicting regional ecosystem services, including climate feedbacks such as carbon storage. Controls over seedling establishment govern forest development and migration potential. Ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF), obligate symbionts of all Alaskan tree species, are particularly important to seedling establishment, yet their significance to landscape vegetation change is largely unknown.

Objective

We used ALFRESCO, a landscape model of wildfire and vegetation dynamics, to explore whether EMF inoculum potential influences patterns of tundra afforestation and associated flammability.

Methods

Using two downscaled CMIP3 general circulation models (ECHAM5 and CCCMA) and a mid-range emissions scenario (A1B) at a 1 km² resolution, we compared simulated tundra afforestation rates and flammability from four parameterizations of EMF effects on seedling establishment and growth from 2000 to 2100.

Results

Modeling predicted an 8.8–18.2 % increase in forest cover from 2000 to 2100. Simulations that explicitly represented landscape variability in EMF inoculum potential showed a reduced percent change afforestation of up to a 2.8 % due to low inoculum potential limiting seedling growth. This reduction limited fuel availability and thus, cumulative area burned. Regardless of inclusion of EMF effects in simulations, landscape flammability was lower for simulations driven by the wetter and cooler CCCMA model than the warmer and drier ECHAM5 model, while tundra afforestation was greater.

Conclusions

Results suggest abiotic factors are the primary driver of tree migration. Simulations including EMF effects, a biotic factor, yielded more conservative estimates of land cover change across Alaska that better-matched empirical estimates from the previous century.

     

Estimating the spatial scales of landscape effects on abundance

Context

Spatial variation in abundance is influenced by local- and landscape-level environmental variables, but modeling landscape effects is challenging because the spatial scales of the relationships are unknown. Current approaches involve buffering survey locations with polygons of various sizes and using model selection to identify the best scale. The buffering approach does not acknowledge that the influence of surrounding landscape features should diminish with distance, and it does not yield an estimate of the unknown scale parameters.

Objectives

The purpose of this paper is to present an approach that allows for statistical inference about the scales at which landscape variables affect abundance.

Methods

Our method uses smoothing kernels to average landscape variables around focal sites and uses maximum likelihood to estimate the scale parameters of the kernels and the effects of the smoothed variables on abundance. We assessed model performance using a simulation study and an avian point count dataset.

Results

The simulation study demonstrated that estimators are unbiased and produce correct confidence interval coverage except in the rare case in which there is little spatial autocorrelation in the landscape variable. Canada warbler abundance was more highly correlated with site-level measures of NDVI than landscape-level NDVI, but the reverse was true for elevation. Canada warbler abundance was highest when elevation in the surrounding landscape, defined by an estimated Gaussian kernel, was between 1300 and 1400 m.

Conclusions

Our method provides a rigorous way of formally estimating the scales at which landscape variables affect abundance, and it can be embedded within most classes of statistical models.

     

Diversity–disturbance relationship in forest landscapes

Context

Despite decades of research, there is an intense debate about the consistency of the hump-shaped pattern describing the relationship between diversity and disturbance as predicted by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH). Previous meta-analyses have not explicitly considered interactive effects of disturbance frequency and intensity of disturbance on plant species diversity in terrestrial landscapes.

Objective

We conducted meta-analyses to test the applicability of IDH by simultaneously examining the relationship between species richness, disturbance frequency (quantified as time since last disturbance as originally proposed) and intensity of disturbance in forest landscapes.

Methods

The effects of disturbance frequency, intensity, and their interaction on species richness was evaluated using a mixed-effects model.

Results

We found that species richness peaks at intermediate frequency after both high and intermediate disturbance intensities, but the richness-frequency relationship differed between intensity classes.

Conclusions

Our study highlights the need to measure multiple disturbance components that could help reconcile conflicting empirical results on the effect of disturbance on plant species diversity.

     

Temporal variability in potential connectivity of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Vallisneria americana</Emphasis> in the Chesapeake Bay

Context

Submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) performs water quality enhancing functions that are critical to the overall health of estuaries such as the Chesapeake Bay. However, eutrophication and sedimentation have decimated the Bay’s SAV population to a fraction of its historical coverage. Understanding the spatial distribution of and connectedness among patches is important for assessing the dynamics and health of the remaining SAV population.

Objectives

We seek to explore the distribution of SAV patches and patterns of potential connectivity in the Chesapeake Bay through time.

Methods

We assess critical distances, from complete patch isolation to connection of all patches, in a merged composite coverage map that represents the sum of all probable Vallisneria americana containing patches between 1984 and 2010 and in coverage maps for individual years within that timeframe for which complete survey data are available.

Results

We have three key findings: First, the amount of SAV coverage in any given year is much smaller than the total recently occupied acreage. Second, the vast majority of patches of SAV that are within the tolerances of V. americana are ephemeral, being observed in only 1 or 2 years out of 26 years. Third, this high patch turnover results in highly variable connectivity from year to year, dependent on dispersal distance and patch arrangement.

Conclusions

Most of the connectivity thresholds are beyond reasonable dispersal distances for V. americana. If the high turnover in habitat occupancy is due to marginal water quality, relatively small improvements could greatly increase V. americana growth and persistence.

     

Using topographic geodiversity to connect conservation lands in the Central Yukon,Alaska

Context

Alaskan landscapes are changing due to climate change impacts. Maintaining or restoring landscape connectivity is a widely suggested climate change adaptation strategy because species are shifting their distributions to align with emerging conditions. Natural resource managers in Alaska have an opportunity to proactively design connected landscapes as infrastructure networks and economic development continue to increase in the state.

Objectives

We provide an example of strategic, multijurisdictional planning to maintain landscape connectivity at a large spatial scale.

Methods

We use geodiversity to model climate-resilient landscape linkages between conservation lands within and adjacent to a 59-million-acre planning area.

Results

The resulting landscape linkage design consists of as little as 1% of the planning area, but can connect over 64 million acres of conservation land allowing the Bureau of Land Management to leverage the current land designations to maximize the conservation value of the entire landscape.

Conclusions

Maintaining landscape connectivity is above and beyond the mandates and responsibilities of a single organization or land owner. Bridging institutions and partnerships, such as the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative, can facilitate the coordination needed for this type of multi-jurisdictional planning effort. The opportunity to manage proactively, rather than waiting for system degradation and then responding reactively, should not be undervalued. The implementation of this work will serve as a model for other relatively intact systems and moreover showcases the potential of twenty-first century models of conservation and sustainability.

     

Contemporary spatial and environmental factors determine vascular plant species richness on highly fragmented meadows in Central Finland

Context

Habitat loss is a major threat to biodiversity. It can create temporal lags in decline of species in relation to destruction of habitat coverage. Plant species specialized in semi-natural grasslands, especially meadows, often express such extinction debt.

Objectives

We studied habitat loss and fragmentation of meadows and examined whether the changes in meadow coverage had caused an extinction debt on vascular plants. We also studied whether historical or present landscape patterns or contemporary environmental factors were more important determinants of species occurrence.

Methods

We surveyed the plant species assemblages of 12 grazed and 12 mown meadows in Central Finland and detected the meadow coverages from their surroundings on two spatial scales and on three time steps. We modelled the effects of functional connectivity, habitat amount, and isolation on species richness and community composition.

Results

We observed drastic and dynamic meadow loss in landscapes surrounding our study sites during the last 150 years. However, we did not find explicit evidence for an extinction debt in meadow plants. The observed species richness correlated with contemporary factors, whereas both contemporary factors and habitat availability during the 1960s affected community composition.

Conclusions

Effective conservation management of meadow biodiversity builds on accurate understanding of the relative importance of past and present factors on species assemblages. Both mown and grazed meadows with high species richness need to be managed in the future. The management effort should preferably be targeted to sites located near to each other.

     

The influence of landscape relative to site and patch variables on primate distributions in the Colombian Llanos

Context

Primates are an important component of biodiversity in tropical regions. However, many studies on the effects of habitat change on primates ignore the relative influence of landscape composition and configuration.

Objectives

This study addresses the question: how important are landscape-scale forest area and composition relative to patch-scale (1–1080 ha) and site-scale (transect of 1 km) habitat variables for the occupancy and abundance of four primate species in the Colombian Llanos.

Methods

Using a randomly stratified survey design, 81 fragments were surveyed for primate occupancy and abundance. We used zero-inflated models to test the relative influence of landscape-scale, patch-scale and site-scale variables on occupancy and abundance for each species. A 95% confidence set of models was constructed using the cumulative Akaike weight for each model and the relative importance of each set of variables calculated for each primate species.

Results

Occupancy was determined by a combination of site-scale, patch-scale and landscape-scale variables but this varied substantially among the primate species.

Conclusion

Our study highlights the importance of managing primates at a range of scales that considers the relative importance of site-, patch- and landscape-scale variables.

     

Sensitivity of resource selection and connectivity models to landscape definition

Context

The definition of the geospatial landscape is the underlying basis for species-habitat models, yet sensitivity of habitat use inference, predicted probability surfaces, and connectivity models to landscape definition has received little attention.

Objectives

We evaluated the sensitivity of resource selection and connectivity models to four landscape definition choices including (1) the type of geospatial layers used, (2) layer source, (3) thematic resolution, and (4) spatial grain.

Methods

We used GPS telemetry data from pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California to create multi-scale path selection function models (PathSFs) across landscapes with 2500 unique landscape definitions. To create the landscape definitions, we identified seven geospatial layers that have been shown to influence puma habitat use. We then varied the number, sources, spatial grain, and thematic resolutions of these layers to create our suite of plausible landscape definitions. We assessed how PathSF model performance (based on AIC) was affected by landscape definition and examined variability among the predicted probability of movement surfaces, connectivity models, and road crossing locations.

Results

We found model performance was extremely sensitive to landscape definition and identified only seven top models out of our suite of definitions (<1%). Spatial grain and the number of geospatial layers selected for a landscape definition significantly affected model performance measures, with finer grains and greater numbers of layers increasing model performance.

Conclusions

Given the sensitivity of habitat use inference, predicted probability surfaces, and connectivity models to landscape definition, out results indicate the need for increased attention to landscape definition in future studies.

     

Estimating density of a territorial species in a dynamic landscape

Context

Conservation planning for at-risk species requires understanding of where species are likely to occur, how many individuals are likely to be supported on a given landscape, and the ability to monitor those changes through time.

Objectives

We developed a distribution model for northern spotted owls that incorporates both habitat suitability and probability of territory occupancy while accounting for interspecies competition.

Methods

We developed range-wide habitat suitability maps for two time periods (1993 and 2012) for northern spotted owls that accounted for regional differences in habitat use and home range size. We used these maps for a long-term demographic monitoring study area to assess habitat change and estimate the number of potential territories based on available habitat for both time periods. We adjusted the number of potential territories using known occupancy rates to estimate owl densities for both time periods. We evaluated our range-wide habitat suitability model using independent survey data.

Results

Our range-wide habitat maps predicted areas suitable for territorial spotted owl presence well. On the demographic study area, the amount of habitat declined 19.7% between 1993 and 2012, while our estimate of the habitat-based carrying capacity declined from 150 to 146 territories. Estimated number of occupied territories declined from 94 to 57.

Conclusions

Conservation and recovery of at-risk species depends on understanding how habitat changes over time in response to factors such as wildfire, climate change, biological invasions, and interspecies competition, and how these changes influence species distribution. We demonstrate a model-based approach that provides an effective planning tool.

     

Graph theory as an invasive species management tool: case study in the Sonoran Desert

Context

Biodiversity in arid regions is usually concentrated around limited water resources, so natural resource managers have constructed artificial water catchments in many areas to supplement natural waters. Because invasive species may also use these waters, dispersing into previously inaccessible areas, the costs and benefits of artificial waters must be gauged and potential invasion- and climate change-management strategies assayed.

Objectives

We present a network analysis framework to identify waters that likely contribute to the spread of invasive species.

Methods

Using the Sonoran Desert waters network and the American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus)—a known predator, competitor, and carrier of pathogens deadly to other amphibians—as an example, we quantified the structural connectivity of the network to predict regional invasion potential under current and two future scenarios (climate change and management reduction) to identify waters to manage and monitor for invasive species.

Results

We identified important and vulnerable waters based on connectivity metrics under scenarios representing current conditions, projected climate-limited conditions, and conditions based on removal of artificial waters. We identified 122,607 km² of land that could be used as a buffer against invasion and 67,745 km² of land that could be augmented by artificial water placement without facilitating invasive species spread.

Conclusions

Structural connectivity metrics can be used to evaluate alternative management strategies for invasive species and climate mitigation.

     

Past and predicted future effects of housing growth on open space conservation opportunity areas and habitat connectivity around National Wildlife Refuges

Context

Housing growth can alter suitability of matrix habitats around protected areas, strongly affecting movements of organisms and, consequently, threatening connectivity of protected area networks.

Objectives

Our goal was to quantify distribution and growth of housing around the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System. This is important information for conservation planning, particularly given promotion of habitat connectivity as a climate change adaptation measure.

Methods

We quantified housing growth from 1940 to 2000 and projected future growth to 2030 within three distances from refuges, identifying very low housing density open space, “opportunity areas” (contiguous areas with <6.17 houses/km²), both nationally and by USFWS administrative region. Additionally, we quantified number and area of habitat corridors within these opportunity areas in 2000.

Results

Our results indicated that the number and area of open space opportunity areas generally decreased with increasing distance from refuges and with the passage of time. Furthermore, total area in habitat corridors was much lower than in opportunity areas. In addition, the number of corridors sometimes exceeded number of opportunity areas as a result of habitat fragmentation, indicating corridors are likely vulnerable to land use change. Finally, regional differences were strong and indicated some refuges may have experienced so much housing growth already that they are effectively too isolated to adapt to climate change, while others may require extensive habitat restoration work.

Conclusions

Wildlife refuges are increasingly isolated by residential housing development, potentially constraining the movement of wildlife and, therefore, their ability to adapt to a changing climate.

     

Response of bioenergy landscape patterns and the provision of biodiversity ecosystem services associated with land-use changes in Jinghong County,Southwest China

Context

Dramatic land-use change has taken place in the tropical region of southwestern China. However, quantitative evaluation of changes in landscape sustainability and the provision of biodiversity ecosystem services (BESVs) of the region has seldom been attempted.

Objectives

This study was designed to: (1) assess bioenergy landscape dynamics based on graph theory; (2) predict bioenergy landscape sustainability in response to land-use changes, and (3) explore the effects of land-use changes on BESVs’ variation based on bioenergy modeling.

Methods

The PANDORA model, a bioenergy-based integrated evaluation of BESV related to landscape connectivity, was employed to analyze variations in landscape’s bioenergy and BESV in Jinghong County, southwestern China. In addition, we applied this model and several indices (change extent, change rate, and growth type) to evaluate responses of bioenergy and BESV to land-use changes.

Results

The bioenergy and bioenergy fluxes of the regional landscape have decreased since the 1970s, while the landscape has remained sustainable with a high level of bioenergy. The BESVs overall fluctuated from $8.41 m^?2 year^?1 in the 1970s to $8.54, 7.45, and 5.71 m^?2 year^?1 in 1990, 2000, and 2010, respectively. Further, both changes in the land-use area and patterns, including change extent, change rate, and change pattern, affected the variation in BESVs.

Conclusions

The PANDORA model can evaluate bioenergy dynamics, sustainability, and BESV variations on the landscape scale effectively. Further, the BESV is sensitive to changes in landscape composition and pattern, and thus, increasing natural vegetation and landscape connectivity could improve provisions to conserve the landscape’s biodiversity.