Simulating the dispersion of vertically migrating sprat larvae (Sprattus sprattus (L.)) in the German Bight with a circulation and transport model system

A model system consisting of two three-dimensional circulation models and a three-dimensional transport model is used to simulate the dispersal of sprat larvae (Sprattus sprattus (L.)) in the German Bight. A Northwest European shelf sea model simulates the currents of the North Sea and provides sea surface elevation data for the open boundaries of the German Bight circulation model. The German Bight circulation model has a horizontal grid resolution of 2.75 km and a vertical resolution of 5 m except for the bottom layer. The driving forces of the circulation models are the M2-tide, six-hourly time-dependent wind stress and air pressure fields as well as monthly climatological density fields. The simulated currents serve as input to the transport model. The model area, grid size and the vertical resolution of the transport model are in accordance with the German Bight circulation model. The transport model simulates advection and diffusion using a Monte Carlo method. Furthermore it incorporates a simulation of active vertical movement of the larvae. The vertical migration pattern is dependent on the time of day and size of the larvae and is based on field data from the German Bight. Horizontal larvae distribution data, gained from two out of five field surveys carried out in the German Bight during spring and summer 1991, are used as initial values for the starting points of the tracers in the transport model. Simulated tracer distributions are compared with larval distributions observed during subsequent cruises about 3 weeks later. Discrepancies and similarities between tracer and larval distributions are discussed.     

Physical oceanography of the North Carolina continental shelf during the fall and winter seasons: implications for the transport of larval menhaden

The circulation over the continental shelf off the southern Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and northern South Atlantic Bight (SAB) is examined for the fall and winter periods. Observational data are compared with results from a three-dimensional numerical model to identify the dominant processes on the shelf. By considering wind-forcing, tides, and a specified upstream inflow (into the MAB), the observed and modelled flow fields are in close agreement in the mid- and inner shelf regions. The resulting larval drift indicates a seasonal dependence of transport pathways from spawning grounds to estuarine nursery areas for menhaden larvae and other offshore-spawning estuarine-dependent fish. Specifically, the physical oceanography of the MAB and SAB during the fall and winter months suggests a north-to-south shift in spawning areas providing recruits to the Carolina estuaries, in agreement with the observed migration of the spawning populations.     

Physical oceanography of the North Carolina continental shelf during the fall and winter seasons: implications for the transport of larval menhaden

The circulation over the continental shelf off the southern Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and northern South Atlantic Bight (SAB) is examined for the fall and winter periods. Observational data are compared with results from a three-dimensional numerical model to identify the dominant processes on the shelf. By considering wind-forcing, tides, and a specified upstream inflow (into the MAB), the observed and modelled flow fields are in close agreement in the mid- and inner shelf regions. The resulting larval drift indicates a seasonal dependence of transport pathways from spawning grounds to estuarine nursery areas for menhaden larvae and other offshore-spawning estuarine-dependent fish. Specifically, the physical oceanography of the MAB and SAB during the fall and winter months suggests a north-to-south shift in spawning areas providing recruits to the Carolina estuaries, in agreement with the observed migration of the spawning populations.     

Towards a more complete understanding of the life cycle of brown shrimp (Crangon crangon): modelling passive larvae and juvenile transport in combination with physically forced vertical juvenile migration

In this study we developed and utilized a complex model approach to investigate the impact of stage‐specific transport processes on the development and spatial distribution of brown shrimp (Crangon crangon) post‐larvae and juveniles in the German Bight. First, we focused on drift processes during the pelagic larval stage by coupling an individual‐based model for egg and larval development ‘off‐line’ to a 3D hydrodynamic model utilizing the Lagrangian method. Secondly, we investigated tidal‐induced transport processes after juvenile settlement. To determine the tidal cycle, the model coupling was accomplished ‘on‐line’ by resolving the individual‐based model and hydrodynamic model with the same time step. The vertical migration of juveniles, a prerequisite for the selective tidal stream transport (STST), was modelled as a sub‐grid scale physical process (balance of forces: gravitation, buoyancy, Stoke’s friction and dynamic uplift) and considered complex particle dynamics. We applied the model to test temperature and salinity cues as possible tidal indicators utilized by juvenile brown shrimp. Our results indicated that transport processes could significantly change the timing and spatial distribution of post‐larval abundance. We also showed that the small‐scale hydrodynamic forcing acting on the bodies of juvenile brown shrimps was sufficient to account for the vertical migration required to use STST. For both investigated tidal cues STST performing juvenile brown shrimp were transported on‐shore. A faster and more continuous STST was calculated for the salinity cue, resulting in larger abundances of brown shrimp in estuarine areas.     

Spawning and transport dynamics of Atlantic menhaden: inferences from characteristics of immigrating larvae and predictions of a hydrodynamic model

We examined patterns of abundance, age and spawning date distributions of Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus larvae immigrating during two seasons through three North Carolina inlets—Oregon, Ocracoke and Beaufort—to elucidate their spawning and transport dynamics. These patterns were examined in conjunction with corresponding predictions from a three-dimensional, wind-and tide-driven hydrodynamic model. Larvae immigrating through different inlets showed consistent similarities as well as marked differences in temporal patterns of abundance, spawning dates and transport times. Intraseasonal patterns in abundance and spawning date distributions among inlets suggest that, in both study years, the spatio-temporal dynamics of menhaden immigration were driven by large-scale patterns along the Atlantic coast, rather than by localized variation in spawning activity. Interannual differences in the temporal patterns of spawning dates and larval immigration indicate interannual differences in transport dynamics and/or the spatial-temporal distribution of spawning. When the spawning locations predicted by the hydrodynamic model are interpreted in conjunction with advanced very high resolution radiometer sea-surface temperature information, the results are consistent with the limited historical information available on spatio-temporal distribution of Atlantic menhaden eggs and larvae. The transport model also predicted distributions of arrival times for immigrating larvae that were comparable in range and variability with observed patterns. Our use of data from immigrating larvae, coupled with a hydrodynamic transport model and sea-surface temperatures, allowed us to uncover relationships between spatio-temporal patterns of Atlantic menhaden spawning and transport dynamics that could not have been identified by either approach alone.     

Springtime ichthyoplankton of the slope region off the north-eastern United States of America: larval assemblages, relation to hydrography and implications for larval transport

Larval transport in the slope region off north‐eastern North America influences recruitment to juvenile habitats for a variety of fishes that inhabit the continental shelf. In this study, collections of larval fishes were made during springtime over the continental slope to provide insights into larval distributions and transport. Ichthyoplankton composition and distribution mirrored the physical complexity of the region. Three larval fish assemblages were defined, each with different water mass distributions. A Gulf Stream assemblage was found predominantly in the Gulf Stream and associated with filaments of discharged Gulf Stream water in the Slope Sea. Larvae of this assemblage originated from oceanic and shelf regions south of Cape Hatteras. Several members of this assemblage utilize habitats in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) as juveniles (Pomatomus saltatrix, Peprilus triacanthus) and other members of the assemblage may share this life cycle (Mugil curema, Sphyraena borealis, Urophycis regia). A Slope Sea assemblage was found in all water masses, and was composed of epi‐ and mesopelagic fish larvae, as well as larvae of benthic shelf/slope residents. Larvae of one member of this assemblage (U. tenuis) are spawned in the Slope Sea but cross the shelf‐slope front and use nearshore habitats for juvenile nurseries. A MAB shelf assemblage was found in MAB shelf water and was composed of larvae that were spawned on the shelf. Some of these species may cross into the Slope Sea before returning to MAB shelf habitats (e.g. Enchelyopus cimbrius, Glyptocephalus cynoglossus). Previous studies have examined the effect of warm‐core rings on larval distributions, but this study identifies the importance of smaller‐scale features of the MAB shelf/slope front and of filaments associated with Gulf Stream meanders. In combination with these advective processes, the dynamic nature of larval distributions in the Slope Sea appears to be influenced, to varying degrees, by both vertical and horizontal behaviour of larvae and pelagic juveniles themselves.     

Connectivity of the bay scallop (Argopecten irradians) in Buzzards Bay,Massachusetts, U.S.A.

The harvest of bay scallops (Argopecten irradians) from Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, U.S.A. undergoes large interannual fluctuations, varying by more than an order of magnitude in successive years. To investigate the extent to which these fluctuations may be due to yearly variations in the transport of scallop larvae from spawning areas to suitable juvenile habitat (settlement zones), a high‐resolution hydrodynamic model was used to drive an individual‐based model of scallop larval transport. Model results revealed that scallop spawning in Buzzards Bay occurs during a time when nearshore bay currents were principally directed up‐bay in response to a persistent southwesterly sea breeze. This nearshore flow results in the substantial transport of larvae from lower‐bay spawning areas to settlement zones further up‐bay. Averaged over the entire bay, the spawning‐to‐settlement zone connectivity exhibits little interannual variation. However, connectivities between individual spawning and settlement zones vary by up to an order of magnitude. The model results identified spawning areas that have the greatest probability of transporting larvae to juvenile habitat. Because managers may aim to increase scallop populations either locally or broadly, the high‐connectivity spawning areas were divided into: (i) high larval retention and relatively little larval transport to adjoining settlement areas, (ii) both significant larval retention and transport to more distant settlement areas, and (iii) little larval retention but significant transport to distant settlement areas.     

Physical transport of young pollock larvae (Theragra chalcogramma) near Shelikof Strait as inferred from a hydrodynamic model

An advective model was used to simulate the drift of larval walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma ) over a 40-day period (late April through early June) near Shelikof Strait, Alaska. This model was used: (i) to assess how much of the observed change in larval positions during that period can be explained by transport at fixed depth; (ii) to demonstrate that observed change can be related to mean large-scale meteorological forcing; and (iii) to investigate accumulation of larvae in specific areas near the coast. Based on availability of larval and circulation data, three years were studied: 1988, 1989 and 1991. Velocity fields generated from a hydrodynamic model driven by winds and runoff were used to advect particles seeded in accordance with observed larval distributions in late April of each year. The modelled larvae were tracked at 40 m depth, corresponding to the mean depth of sampled larvae and the depth of neutrally buoyant drifters employed in field studies. Specific features observed in late May larval surveys were reproduced by the model, such as the accumulation of larvae in a shoal area downstream of the strait. Differences among the modelled years include extensive flushing of larvae to the south-west in 1988 and 1991, vs. limited flushing in 1989. These differences appear related to the mean large-scale atmospheric pressure patterns for April-May of those years.     

Reproduction and recruitment of the brown shrimp Crangon crangon in the inner German Bight (North Sea): An interannual study and critical reappraisal

The brown shrimp, Crangon crangon, is the most important target of the coastal crustacean fisheries in the German Bight. In order to evaluate the relation between the abundance of ovigerous females and larvae in spring and the recruitment success in autumn, we first analysed the seasonal appearance of ovigerous females and larvae from weekly samples throughout 2012. The spawning season in the German Bight extends over several months comprising multiple unsynchronized spawning events. The minimum shares of ovigerous females appeared in early autumn, and the highest shares in late winter bearing mostly early egg stages. We defined the putative start of the reproductive cycle for November when the frequency of ovigerous females started to increase. There was no distinct separation between winter and summer eggs, but a continuous transition between large eggs spawned in winter (the early spawning season) and batches of smaller eggs in spring and summer. Larval densities peaked in April/May. Consequently, regular annual larval surveys from 2013 to 2016 were scheduled for April/May and extended to six transects covering the inner German Bight. Ovigerous females were most abundant in shallow waters above the 20‐m isobaths, which also explained regional differences in abundance between the regions off North Frisia and East Frisia. No relation was obvious between the number of larvae in spring and recruited stock in autumn. Due to the short lifespan of C. crangon, the combination of various abiotic factors and predator presence seems to be the principal parameters controlling stock size.     

Coupling ecosystem and individual‐based models to simulate the influence of environmental variability on potential growth and survival of larval sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) in the North Sea

To investigate the impact of changing environmental conditions in the North Sea on the distribution and survival of early life stages of a marine fish species, we employed a suite of coupled model components: (i) an Eulerian coupled hydrodynamic/ecosystem (Nutrients, Phyto‐, Zooplankton, Detritus) model to provide both 3‐D fields of hydrographical properties, and spatially and temporally variable prey fields; (ii) a Lagrangian transport model to simulate temporal changes in cohort distribution; and (iii) an individual‐based model (IBM) to depict foraging, growth and survival of fish early life stages. In this application, the IBM was parameterized for sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) and included non‐feeding (egg and yolk‐sac larval) stages as well as foraging and growth subroutines for feeding (post‐yolk sac) larvae. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the angle of visual acuity, assimilation efficiency and the maximum food consumption rate were the most critical intrinsic model parameters. As an example, we applied this model system for 1990 in the North Sea. Results included not only information concerning the interplay of temperature and prey availability on larval fish survival and growth but also information on mechanisms underlying larval fish aggregation within frontal zones. The good agreement between modelled and in situ estimates of sprat distribution and growth rates in the German Bight suggested that interconnecting these different models provided an expedient tool to scrutinize basic processes in fish population dynamics.     

Variations in the drift of larval cod (Gadus morhua L.) in the Baltic Sea: combining field observations and modelling

Coupled three-dimensional (3-D) physical oceanographic modelling and field sampling programmes were carried out in May 1988 and August 1991 to investigate the potential drift of larval cod ( Gadus morhua L.) in the Bornholm Basin of the Baltic Sea. The goals were to predict the transport of cod larvae, thus aiding the identification of physical processes influencing larval retention/dispersal. Numerical simulations were performed using a 3-D eddy-resolving baroclinic model based on the Bryan–Cox–Semtner code adapted for the Baltic Sea. Within the Bornholm Basin, the model was initialized with ground truth data of physical parameters obtained on the research cruises, and all simulations were forced with actual wind data. Outside the basin, generalized hydrographic features of the Baltic Sea were utilized by incorporation of simulated hydrographic fields from previous model runs typical for the time periods considered. Larval drift was simulated either by incorporation of passive drifters, or as the initial horizontal distribution of larvae implemented into the model. Drift model simulations of larval transport agreed relatively well with field observations. The influence of variations in the vertical distribution on a smaller scale, i.e. vertical deviations of ± 6 m from the observed mean centre of mass, on the drift was examined, revealing no significant differences in the drift of larvae depending on their vertical distribution. The different wind forcing during the investigated time periods was linked to a retention situation in May 1988 and to a dispersal situation in August 1991. Finally, observed spatial distribution patterns of 1-group cod based on Baltic Young Fish Surveys (BYFS) were compared with their predicted transport in the larval phase and examined with respect to recruitment.     

Subtropical water influences temporal fluctuations of early life stages of Vinciguerria lucetia (Osteichthyes: Phosichthyidae) in the Humboldt Current System (1998–2004)

In the last decades, the fish Vinciguerria lucetia (Garman) has been of important interest to the fisheries sector; nonetheless, the spawning and nursery zones in the Humboldt Current System (HCS) have not yet been defined. By using a temporal series of 23 oceanographic surveys from austral spring of 1998 to autumn 2004 off northern Chile, the spatial and temporal distribution and abundance of eggs and larvae of V. lucetia were studied. The relationships with environmental conditions (sea surface temperature, water column stratification, salinity, dissolved oxygen) were modeled using generalized additive models (GAMs). Seasonal variations in eggs and larval abundances were recorded, and higher abundances were observed in spring and summer, respectively. The main spawning areas were located at approximately between 40 and 80 nautical miles offshore. The largest abundances of V. lucetia eggs were found during spring 2003; however, larval abundances reached the highest values following the strongest ENSO event 1997–98. GAMs predicted that offshore location, sea surface temperature, and the deepening of the oxygen minimum zone, characteristics of the subtropical waters (22–24°C, >34.9, 3–6 ml/L) drove eggs and larval distributions of V. lucetia in the HCS during 1998–2004, toward areas with scarce food availability for larvae. These results suggest that spawning and larval development of this oceanic species occur in oligotrophic waters as a loophole strategy, in order to reduce predation risk during early life stages.     

Larval lobster (Homarus americanus) distribution and drift in the vicinity of the Gulf of Maine offshore banks and their probable origins

Surveys for lobster larvae in offshore waters of the north‐eastern Gulf of Maine in 1983, 1987 and 1989 confirm that local hatching occurs mainly at depths <100 m over the banks, including Georges and Browns Banks. Detailed studies in the vicinity of Georges Bank in late July of both 1987 and 1989 indicate that the first and second moult stages were located primarily over the bank whereas stages III and IV lobster were collected both over and off the bank. At times stage IV lobster were more abundant off the bank than over it. The condition of stage III and IV lobster, as measured by a lipid index, was better off than over Georges Bank in 1988 and 1989 indicating a possible physiological advantage to being off the bank. In addition, the higher surface temperatures off Georges Bank would shorten larval development time to settlement. To determine the probable hatch sites of stage IV lobster collected off of Browns Bank in 1983 and off of Georges in 1987 and 1989, a 3‐D circulation model of the Gulf of Maine was used to simulate larval lobster drift backwards in time. In all cases, areas off Cape Cod, MA, and off Penobscot Bay, ME were suggested as the source of the larvae, although most of the larval trajectories never reached these near‐shore waters that are well‐known, larval hatching areas. The model‐projected larval release times match most closely the observed inshore hatch off Massachusetts but model uncertainties mean that coastal Maine cannot be ruled out as a source. Georges Bank is also a potential source because the present model does not take into account short‐term wind events, off‐bank eddy transport or the possibility of directed off‐bank larval swimming. Examination of weather records prior to and during our 1988 and 1989 sampling periods indicates that winds were not of sufficient intensity and duration to induce larval transport off Georges Bank. The shedding of eddies from the northern flank of Georges Bank into the Gulf of Maine are a relatively common phenomenon during summer but not enough is known about them to evaluate their contribution to possible cross‐bank transport of lobster larvae. Directed larval swimming is another possible source for the stage IV lobster found near Georges Bank. Plankton distributions across the northern frontal zone of Georges Bank in 1988 were used as proxies for the scarce larval lobsters. The more surface distribution of the microplankton, in particular, supports the possibility that wind and eddy events may be important in the transport of stage III and IV lobsters off of Georges Bank. Further studies are needed to evaluate these possible additional sources of advanced stage lobster larvae found off of the offshore banks.     

Vertical distribution of larval Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) and Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus): Implications for vertical migratory behaviour and transport

Understanding the interactions among biological and physical processes is essential to determining how the environment affects transport and survival of fishes. We examined vertical distribution in larval Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) and Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) using 126 depth stratified tows in Delaware Bay, USA, during two cruises, in December 2007 and February 2008. Menhaden larvae were 16.8–24.6 and 20.5–26.2 mm standard length in December and February. Corresponding lengths for croaker were 9.3–17.9 and 8.6–19.6 mm. Using empirical observations, and statistically derived models, we explored larval concentration for both species as a function of location, depth, diel period, tidal period, size, and pairwise interactions. Menhaden concentration was best modeled as a function of station, cruise, and interactions between depth and size as well as between station and cruise. No significant differences in larval menhaden concentration were present among tidal and diel periods. Croaker concentration was best modeled as a function of size and interactions between station and diel period, depth and size, cruise and size. Despite tidal period not emerging as a significant model parameter, we observed larger croaker larvae during nighttime flood tides. Our statistical models are consistent with processes of up‐estuary transport for both species, suggesting larvae are increasingly affected by behavioral responses as larvae grow, exhibiting stronger patterns in vertical distribution. The results refine our understanding of the potential importance of size‐related differences in vertical distribution for larval transport in these species. Future research should examine the interactions among size‐specific vertical migratory capabilities, vertical distribution, transport, and retention.     

Larval transport during winter in the SABRE study area: results of a coupled vertical larval behaviour–three-dimensional circulation model

A three-dimensional circulation model was used in conjunction with larval fish vertical behaviour models to study the interaction between larval vertical distribution, advection and the outcome of larval transport along the central portion of the east coast of the United States. The circulation model was forced by tides, a northern boundary inflow, and winds. Vertical behaviour models were developed for Atlantic menhaden ( Brevoortia tyrannus ) and spot ( Leiostomus xanthurus ). The purpose of this modelling effort was to investigate the transport pathways of Atlantic menhaden and spot larvae from offshore spawning grounds to estuarine nursery habitats. The coupled circulation and behavioural model demonstrated the importance of along-shelf transport in what is generally thought to be a 'cross-shelf' problem. Cross-shelf transport was associated with bathymetric features, such as shoals. Both physical (e.g. wind) and biological (e.g. changes in larval behaviour) events were responsible for many of the observed patterns in larval transport. Overall, larval transport was determined by circulation but was modified by larval vertical distributions.     

The missing link: tidal‐influenced activity a likely candidate to close the migration triangle in brown shrimp Crangon crangon (Crustacea,Decapoda)

Life cycle closure for species inhabiting areas with daily varying currents but directed net water transport requires specific behavior to minimize losses due to advection of passive drifting life stages. Variations in swimming activity of different‐sized Crangon crangon (15–65 mm total length) were therefore monitored under constant laboratory conditions immediately after being caught in the German Wadden Sea. Activity of shrimps of different sizes, caught at different seasons, always peaked at times corresponding with ebb tide in the habitat from where they were taken. This behavior was maintained for several days if no external stimuli were present but shifted to night activity if a light–dark cycle was provided. The observed behavior/activity pattern was included in a coupled hydrodynamic and individual‐based model (IBM) and the shift in the location of a shrimp cohort was monitored over time. Performance of ebb tide activity not only allowed the shrimps to reach the preferred deeper winter and spawning areas but also allowed them to migrate against the dominating current from eastern nurseries to more western located spawning areas. Passively drifting larvae released at these locations and later larval and juvenile stages that perform flood tide transport can reach the nurseries again. This links the nurseries and adult spawning grounds and closes the migration triangle.     

The importance of individual behaviour for successful settlement of juvenile plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.): a modelling and field study in the eastern Irish Sea

To study the transport of plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) eggs and larvae in the eastern Irish Sea, we constructed a 3D‐baroclinic physical model and coupled it to a particle‐tracking scheme that allowed aspects of larval behaviour to be simulated. Starting positions for eggs were based upon data from a series of ichthyoplankton surveys and final positions were compared with results of settled plaice distributions from two beam trawl surveys conducted on beaches around the eastern Irish Sea. If simulated larval behaviour was limited to passive drift or horizontal swimming, the particles diffused away from the spawning areas but failed to reach nursery grounds in significant numbers (85–90% remaining offshore). In contrast, switching on circatidal vertical swimming significantly increased the numbers of larvae reaching the coast (only 23–30% remained offshore). Particles tended to accumulate in bays and estuaries and this pattern compared well with the distribution of settled plaice from the field surveys. Studies in the southern North Sea (where spawning and nursery grounds are widely separated) have also demonstrated the importance of selective tidal stream transport for successful recruitment of settling plaice to nursery grounds. Although our understanding of the ontogeny of this behaviour is still poor, the model results presented suggest that this aspect of behaviour is a key factor influencing plaice settlement success.     

Characterizing larval swordfish habitat in the western tropical North Atlantic

Swordfish Xiphias gladius (Linnaeus, 1758) are a circumglobal pelagic fish targeted by multiple lucrative fisheries. Determining the distribution of swordfish larvae is important for indicating reproductive activity and understanding the early life history of swordfish. We identify and characterize larval swordfish distributions during peak swordfish spawning throughout the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea with generalized additive models (GAMs) using catches of swordfish larvae during ichthyoplankton surveys in April and May of 2010, 2011, and 2012. The best fit GAM, as determined by stepwise, backward Akaike Information Criterion selection, included both physiochemical (temperature at 5 m, sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), eddy kinetic energy (EKE)), temporal (lunar illumination, hour of sampling) and spatial (location) variables, while near surface chlorophyll a concentration residuals remained as a random effect. The highest probability of larval swordfish catch occurred at sub‐surface temperatures, SSHA, and EKE values indicative of boundary currents. Standard lengths of larvae were larger further downstream in the boundary currents, despite high variability in length with location due to multiple spawning locations of swordfish near these currents. Probability of larval swordfish catch also peaked during the crescent and gibbous moons, indicating a lunar periodicity to swordfish spawning. These results suggest that swordfish may spawn during select moon phases near boundary currents that transport their larvae to larval and juvenile habitat including the northern Gulf of Mexico and coastal waters of the southeast United States.     

Modelling changes in the length–frequency distributions of fish larvae using field estimates of predator abundance and size distributions

The goal of this study is to determine if an individual-based size-dependent model can realistically simulate changes in the length–frequency distributions of several species of fish larvae collected in Conception Bay in 1993 and 1994, using field estimations of growth and predator abundance. We first model the length–frequency distribution of field samples with the best possible estimates of mean growth rate. Then, we add predation mortality given the characteristics of the predator community observed during our surveys, which was composed of macrozooplankton and adult capelin. The larval fish community is generally not affected by predation by macrozooplankton, as the average instantaneous mortality rate predicted by the model was 0.004 day^–1. Fish larvae appear to be more vulnerable to predation by the population of adult capelin. We estimate that an abundance of adult capelin ranging between 0.2 and 1.0 individuals per 1000 m^–3 may have a substantial impact on the larval fish community. The predictions of an individual-based model are directly related to the accuracy of estimates of the mean growth rates of the larval fish cohorts. We find that it is difficult to differentiate size-selective removal of individuals from random selection by analysing changes of the length–frequency distributions of the larval fish community.     

Simulating larval supply to estuarine nursery areas: how important are physical processes to the supply of larvae to the Aransas Pass Inlet?

Factors controlling the movement of fish larvae from coastal spawning environments to estuarine nursery areas are important to fish recruitment. In this paper, the role of physical processes in larval transport to estuarine nursery areas in the Aransas Pass region, Texas, is examined using a circulation model coupled with a fixed‐depth particle transport model. Two phases of transport are examined: transport on the shelf to the tidal inlet and transport through the inlet to estuarine nursery areas. Observed pulsing in the supply of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) larvae to the tidal inlet is significantly correlated with modeled particle supply. This pulsing is not correlated with a specific physical process, but results from the interaction of several factors affecting water movement, including low‐frequency variations in water level and wind forcing. Simulations suggest that the primary spawning region for red drum larvae that utilize nursery habitat in the Aransas Pass region is located north of the inlet. Patterns in the trajectories of particles that successfully enter the inlet reveal that they move alongshelf in the nearshore region and then move into the inlet, rather than moving directly across the shelf to the inlet. The approach path of particles outside the inlet determines the spatial transport patterns for inlets with branched channels and multiple bays. This study demonstrates that physical processes play an important role in determining larval supply to a tidal inlet.