Growing common plantation tree species in Kenya for sale of carbon and wood supply: what is the best bet?

The introduction of carbon finance as an incentive in forestry farming has a potential of increasing the amount of carbon sequestered. However, this has created a daunting task among investors in forestry to optimise the joint production of wood and carbon sequestration. For instance, investors might find it profitable to give up some timber returns in exchange for carbon credits. This study evaluated expected income from growing Cupressus lusitanica Mill., Pinus patula Schiede ex Schltdl. & Cham., Eucalyptus saligna Sm. and Juniperus procera Hochst. ex Endl. for wood and/or the carbon market in central Kenya. The global average unit price of carbon and stumpage royalty were used to estimate expected returns from sale of carbon credits and wood, respectively. There were significant differences (p < 0.01) in the expected amount of income from sale of carbon and wood among the four species. Specifically, at economic rotation of 30 years with stand density of 532 trees ha^?1 P. patula and C. lusitanica yielded US$28 050 and US$23 650, respectively, from sale of carbon compared with US$59 000 and US$51 000, respectively, from sale of wood. This was twice the value investors receive from clear-felling as compared with sales from carbon. Similarly, at economic rotation of 33 years with stand density of 150 trees ha^?1, a forest investor in E. saligna would earn US$15 400 from sale of carbon compared with US$33 000 from sale of wood. Overall, the amount expected to be realised from sale of carbon was lower compared with that from sale of wood. This demonstrates that the price dynamics of carbon offsets in the voluntary and the compliance markets need to remain competitive and attractive for the forest owners to give up some timber returns in exchange for carbon income or to modify forest management regulation in order to increase carbon sequestration.     

Ecology-oriented House Builders and FSC-certified Domestic Timber in Japan

Forest owners’ cooperatives are one of the leading organizations in the forest sector in Japan. Yusuhara Forest Owners’ Cooperative (YFOC) in Kochi Prefecture is one of such examples, which obtained FSC forest certification as a resource manager of the forest, which belongs to more than 1,200 small-scale forest owners. YFOC has successfully expanded sales of FSC-labeled timber in recent years. Most of their certified timber is purchased by house builders in urban cities including Osaka. This paper analyzes who desires FSC-certified timber from YFOC and why. Six case studies are reported, which reveal that ecology-oriented house builders are interested in using FSC certified timber because of traceability of the timber, price advantage from direct dealing, environmentally sound forest management of YFOC, and relatively high quality of the timber.     

How to improve the marketing of timber in France?

Large forest estates actively participate in the marketing of timber in France. However, the marketing of wood from private and public large forest estates (over 25 ha) could be improved by better managing price risk in multiannual supply contracts of the timber industry: creation of compensation funds for forest owners or calls to financial markets linked to processed timber products for industrialists. But, the development of supply contracts does not mean that private or public auction procedures should be abandoned. Similarly, by supplementing “forest area development schemes”, it would be possible to increase the mobilisation of timber produced on small (1 to 10 ha) and medium (10 to 25 ha) forest estates: more forestry cooperatives or local forest agencies and a new timber pre-sale mode adapted to small forest estates are necessary (sales subject to the buyer's choice of purchasing standing timber or cut wood delivered to a depot by the seller).     

A Socio-Economic Analysis of French Public Timber Sales

This socio-economic study aims to better understand the functioning and the evolution of timber sales held by the French public forest service. The auction system is the historical institution which has been used for timber sales in France for centuries. The recent trend to develop supply contracts through private agreements has a major impact on the French timber industry, which is criticized for its lack of competitiveness. It accurately raises questions about the timber price issue. Indeed, the auction system plays an important role in price setting. We refer to the auction theory literature to examine the features of French timber auctions: first-price sealed-bid sequential auctions of heterogeneous standing timber lots. In particular, we note that seller's reserve price is kept secret and that, contrary to the general assumption in auction theory, the seller indubitably lacks information about his own reservation value. Finally, the difficulty of defining a “fair market price” remains a central issue in public timber sales.     

Loss function analysis of private forest owners’ timber price change expectations

Loss function analysis was introduced to timber market price analysis. Methods found in Bayesian statistical decision analysis were applied to expectations of market price changes. These were obtained from a forest owner survey conducted in Finland in 2009. Forecast errors of heterogeneous price expectations of the individual private forest owners were derived with observed price changes in six different timber price regions. The forecast errors were complemented with random number simulations to control for unobserved response heterogeneity. The properties and estimation of generalized loss functions – LIN-EX and flexible loss functions – allowing for asymmetry in individual forecast errors were introduced into the analysis. Estimation results for different price regions implied that forest owners’ perceived costs related to positive forecast errors of negative price changes that took place in 2009 were larger than those related to negative errors. This under-prediction vs. over-prediction asymmetry was large in some price regions. The forest owners exhibited an aversion to losses reflected in price expectations errors in the year 2009. The observed loss aversion means that forest owners were cautious in their selling decisions during periods of declining market prices. This has a negative impact on the recovery of slack timber markets.     

浙江龙游县竹笋市场调查研究

浙江省龙游县是"中国竹子之乡",竹笋产业是当地的一大支柱产业,是竹林增效、竹农增收的重要途径。以龙游县具有代表性的竹笋收购与销售企业"龙游竹海鲜笋专业合作社"为案例,调查分析了龙游县2010-2016年竹笋收购期限、收购价格、竹笋产量的年度变化以及竹笋的销售渠道,以期为竹笋的生产、销售以及竹林的定向培育提供参考。调查结果显示:龙游县竹笋产量大小年比例失衡,大年产量为小年产量的11倍;冬笋价格主要受季节、气候、产量、市场的影响,春笋价格则与笋加工企业的经营状况密切相关;竹笋加工产品单一,加工方式原始;竹笋产品销售渠道较为狭窄。因此,建议龙游县应加强竹林经营,逐步调整竹林的大小年结构,进一步拓宽笋产品销售渠道,加强竹笋深加工技术的研究与开发。     

Determinants of Swedish pulpwood imports

Pulpwood is imported to Sweden as a result of price discrimination and the monopsonistic features of the domestic pulpwood market. To investigate the determinants of Swedish pulpwood imports, econometric models were developed for the three imported assortments: pine, spruce, and non‐coniferous pulpwood. All prices used in the models were relative to the price of pulpwood imports. The study shows that the relative price of pulpwood (e.g. price of standing timber for sale/price of pulpwood imports) is not a significant determinant of pulpwood imports; it has the wrong sign for spruce pulpwood. This unexpected finding may have been a result of the impossibility of categorizing the price for standing timber according to pulpwood assortments. The relative export price of pulp, however, was found to be a significant determinant of spruce pulpwood imports, although not of pine and non‐coniferous pulpwood. An important determinant is the relative prices of inputs other than pulpwood in pulp production. The study also shows that pulpwood imports respond to price signals with a 1 yr lag, indicating inertia in trade.     

The global timber market: implications of changes in economic growth,timber supply,and technological trends

A partial equilibrium model was applied to the global forest sector in order to assess regional and global impacts of changes in economic growth, timber supply potentials, and technical trends. The model uses recursive price-endogenous linear programming and deals with eight geographical regions and 16 products. The base line projections of the model gave an average annual increase in global supply of industrial roundwood of 1.2% until the year 2010. The real price of sawlogs and sawnwood was found to remain approximately constant, whereas the prices of pulpwood and particles increased significantly during the first years, and then declined after the year 2000. The real prices of pulp and paper increased less than those of pulpwood and particles. The assumed variations in GDP growth rates had limited influence on quantities supplied and traded due to restricted timber supply potentials, but affected the real prices, especially of pulpwood and particles. Changes in the assumed timber supply potentials and technical change affected the real prices of pulpwood and particles significantly. Introduction of a price responsive timber supply also dampened the price peaks of pulpwood. Possible improvements of the methodology include empirical estimation of timber supply and of key parameters that determine capacity expansion, trade inertia, and technical changes.     

Economic impacts of accelerating forest growth in Europe

The global forest sector model EFI-GTM was applied to assess regional impacts in Europe of increased timber supply caused by potential acceleration of forest growth in Europe. The EFI-GTM is a multi-periodic partial equilibrium model, which contains 31 European regions and 30 regions for the rest of the world, and trade between the regions. The endogenous sectors include 26 forest industry products and six wood categories. Three alternative forest growth scenarios were analysed: a base line assuming the present annual rate of growth in the European countries, and two accelerating growth scenarios corresponding to a 20 and 40% increase after 20 years in the forest growth relative to the baseline growth. In the accelerated growth scenarios equilibrium prices for logs and sawnwood decreased significantly from the baseline levels, whereas the other forest product prices were not affected much. Depending on region and timber category, the log prices in 2020 were 7–9 and 13–17% lower than the base line prices in the medium and high forest growth scenarios, respectively. For sawnwood, the corresponding price decreases were 2 and 3.5–4.5%. In Western Europe, log harvest and sawnwood production increased because accelerated forest growth substituted for imports of these commodities from Russia and Eastern European countries. This decreased the harvests in Russia and Eastern Europe relative to the base case. In all the three forest growth scenarios the forest owners income as well as the forest industry profit increase over time.     

Timber Prices in South West England and their Implications for Plantation Management

Forestry Commission timber sales in the period 1979–82in Southwest England provide consistent data on the relationshipbetween timber prices and the diameter at breast height of treesfrom which logs are taken. The relationship indicates a greater premium for size than iscurrently assumed in generalised price: size curves. It impliesthat, firstly, rotations should be extended by between 5 and15 years beyond the rotation of optimum discounted revenue basedon the generalised curves, and secondly, heavier thinning regimesshould where feasible be followed in order to accelerate thediameter growth of main-crop trees.     

Analysis and modeling of timber storage accumulation after severe storm events in Germany

In this study, we explore the determinants of forest enterprises’ timber storage accumulation after severe storm events. The explanatory power of variables reflecting economic, institutional and tree species-related factors is tested via econometric analyses. Timber storage accumulation is assessed conducting a weighted multiple linear regression analysis. In addition, the moderating effect of timber price alterations on timber storage accumulation is tested employing timber price alterations as a moderator variable in a hierarchical regression analysis. The results show a linear positive relation between forest enterprises’ damaged and stored timber quantities. It was found that coniferous timber was stored to a greater extent than non-coniferous timber which can be explained by higher storm damage as well as better suitability for multiyear storage. State forestry stored the highest shares of damaged timber, followed by municipal and private forest enterprises, which can be explained as a countervailing measure. A further central finding of our study is that the timber price drops after storm events act as a moderator variable on the relation between damaged and stored timber quantities. Hence, empirical timber price reactions help to improve estimation accuracy regarding the shares of damaged timber which are stored. Derived from our results, we find timber storage accumulation to be a common practice by forest companies to mitigate revenue losses caused by extreme storm events. As coefficients vary strongly among the analyzed variables’ categories, we consider case-specific storage accumulation estimations to be crucial for improving the accuracy of national wood and timber accounting, but also for a full view on storm-related economic damage in the forest sector. In addition, it is likely that capturing the proportions of timber storage in forests will gain relevance in the future, since forest damage from natural disturbances is expected to increase as a consequence of climate change.     

日本国有林经营管理特点

本文着重论述了日本国有林的发展阶段及其经营管理的5个特点和经验:(1)确定了发挥森林多种效益的战略指导思想;(2)健全法制,依法治林;(3)建立一套科学的森林计划体系;(4)有一个稳定的林业管理体制;(5)采取扶持政策。最后,对日本国有林今后的发展进行了展望。     

Financial performance of mixed-age naturally regenerated loblolly-hardwood stands in the south central United States

To estimate the financial performance of a natural mixed species and mixed-age management in the loblolly-pine forest type, we examined 991 FIA plots in the south central states. The plots were of the loblolly pine forest type, mixed-age, and had been regenerated naturally. We gauged the financial performance of each plot from the equivalent annual income (EAI) produced by growth and harvest, between two successive inventories. The real price EAI (REAI) measured the financial performance based on the real price change, net of inflation, between surveys. The constant price EAI (CEAI) measured stand productivity at prices at the time of the first survey. Thus, the REAI is a measure of real economic performance, including timber growth and price changes. In contrast, the CEAI is a quantity index of timber growth, the growth of each product being weighted by its price. During the period 1977–1994, the main determinant of the REAI was the price change. Due to an overall favorable price trend, the mean REAI ($158 ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) was much greater than the mean CEAI ($24 ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). Due to increasing prices, the best performing plots had very high stocking levels. Thus, the best financial strategy was to hold the stock, making the opportunity cost of conservation negative. Instead, CEAI tended to be lower on stands with high basal area, and higher in stands with many trees, a low share of hardwoods, and many trees near sawtimber size.     

木材储备基地及其多功能森林经营建设对策

木材战略储备基地作为林业产业发展的重大举措被列入我国“十二五”林业发展规划,以应对我国木材自产不足、外供不济的安全保障问题,但面临速生丰产林用地有限、社会对森林综合需求增加、生产成本上升、效益低下等因素制约。文中在分析木材储备的特征及其森林经营需求的基础上,提出以林分状态存在的活立木储备是低成本、环境友好型、有战略意义的木材储备,而且木材储备基地是一种以物质生产功能为主导的多功能用材林模式;在此基础上,进一步提出了通过建设有生命活力和结构稳定的用材林生态系统来实现有经济效益的木材战略储备基地的多功能森林可持续经营对策。     

篌竹林经营技术研究进展

篌竹广泛分布于长江流域及以南我国各省(区),是重要的中小型笋材兼用竹种之一,其栽培及经营技术研发历来为业界关注。本研究收集了篌竹近40年国内外研究文献100余篇,系统分析了篌竹分布、生物生态学特性、苗木培育、人工造林、病虫害防治、幼林和成林抚育,以及材用林、笋用林和笋材兼用林经营关键技术,以期为篌竹林培育利用及林下经济发展提供科学依据。     

Family forest owner preferences for biomass harvesting in Massachusetts

U.S. forests, including family-owned forests, are a potential source of biomass for renewable energy. Family forest owners constitute a significant portion of the overall forestland in the U.S., yet little is known about family forest owners' preferences for supplying wood-based biomass. The goal of this study is to understand how Massachusetts family forest owners feel about harvesting residual woody biomass from their property. The study estimates the probability that Massachusetts landowners will harvest biomass as part of a timber harvest using data from a survey of 932 Massachusetts family forest owners. Logistic regression results suggest that the likelihood of harvesting for biomass is quite low, and that the supply of participation in biomass harvesting is inelastic with respect to price. These low probabilities may be due to the method used to account for preference uncertainty, as well as the unique nature of Massachusetts forests, forest markets, and landowner attitudes in comparison to other states (e.g., Minnesota). The study suggests that it would be more effective to target renewable energy policy toward different regions and/or markets rather than develop a uniform national policy.     

Has deregulation of non-timber forest product controls and marketing in Orissa state (India) affected local patterns of use and marketing

State control of marketing agricultural or forestry products may lead to a trade monopoly and restricted competition, resulting in inequitable returns to producers. Consequently, market deregulation for agriculture and other natural products has been advocated to improve market efficiencies, participation and returns for the producers and local traders. The study examines the impact of deregulation of state marketing controls on collection, sale and returns to extractors and traders from non-timber forest products. It assessed whether deregulation policy resulted in greater benefits to primary extractors and a win–win situation for both producers and traders? Mixed effects were found, with no significant changes in terms of trade, demand, or quantum of consumption; but there was an overall increase in the procurement price for several products following deregulation. The collection and farm gate price of tree based oilseeds and honey increased due to lower transaction costs, and ease of trading with a continued demand for these products. The impact on less valuable products was insignificant. Abolition of monopolistic trading increased competition and had a pull effect on the local market prices of several NTFPs. Although traders paid a higher price to procure products, overall they also benefited being able to sell the purchased products to merchants and manufacturers at a better margin than previously.     

Increasing rotation periods during a time of decreasing profitability of forestry — a paradox?

The profitability of forestry in Germany decreased during recent decades because of more or less constant prices for forest products, increasing input prices and limited success in rationalisation. However, the volume of growing stock increased significantly during this period since forest enterprises have chosen longer rotation periods. This is especially true for state owned and community owned forests but also at least partly for private forests. It is normally not an alternative for the owners of forest enterprises in Germany to sell the forests completely, but on a first glance increasing investments in standing timber during a time of decreasing profitability of forestry seems to be inconsistent with economic theory. On the one hand this observation could be explained as the result of non-timber values. However, this paper is focused on another approach, which is an expanded Faustmann model in line with soil rent theory and focused on timber production. Profitable rotations in the future have the effect of shortening the optimal rotation period because an investment in standing timber causes opportunity costs by delaying the establishment of the next generation of the forest. Unprofitable future rotations have the opposite effect, if the landowner is forced to reforest. In case investments in reforestations are not profitable decision-makers have good reasons not to cut the mature stands, in spite of the fact that the internal rates of return of investments in standing timber are low in comparison with investments on the financial market. Empirical data for the period 1954–1998 mostly from guidelines for forest valuation are used together with inflation corrected interest rates to show that optimal rotation length increased over time. Nevertheless we have to recognise that the observed rotation periods are distinctly longer than the calculated optimal rotation lengths. Other factors which may also explain the investments in forestry are discussed later.     

Optimal forest rotation periods: integrating timber production and carbon sequestration benefits in Pinus tabulaeformis plantations on the Loess Plateau,P.R. China

Determining the optimal rotation period was a crucial component of forest sustainable management strategies, especially under climate change. This paper had two objectives: (1) to determine the economic benefits and optimal rotation periods for timber production when coupled to carbon sequestration, as predicted by time series prediction models for Pinus tabulaeformis plantations in China; and (2) to evaluate how different carbon prices and interest rates affected optimal rotation periods using the forest land expectation value. The results suggested that time series prediction models were valuable for estimating timber volumes and carbon sequestrations based on surveys of different-aged stands. Importantly, since integrating carbon sequestrations into timber production benefits did not increase optimal rotation periods, this should promote P. tabulaeformis plantation management. In the sensitivity analysis, a higher carbon price increased the profitability of carbon sequestration and timber production, but not optimal rotation periods, though they were reduced under higher interest rates. In conclusion, incorporating both timber production and carbon sequestration benefits would sharply increase forest-based revenues, while realizing the carbon sequestration potential of P. tabulaeformis plantations. This approach was clearly useful to the development of reforestation/afforestation projects trying to mitigate climate change and also provided a theoretical basis for sustainable forest management.