Voting with Their Feet: Jobs versus Amenities

ABSTRACT The determinants of rural and urban community population change over the period 1991–2001 are investigated at a very fine level of disaggregation for Canada. The study examines the influence of local amenities, economic factors, and agglomeration economies on population growth for age cohorts starting from the very young to the elderly. Motivated by the objective of assessing the overall jobs versus people question in economic development, the emphasis is on estimating the relative contribution of groupings of variables in explaining the variations in population change rather than the contribution of individual variables. Results indicate that rural and urban populations are influenced to differing degrees by amenity, economic, and urban scale groupings of variables and that there are variations among age cohorts in both urban and rural areas. While economic variables are the most influential in population change for all rural cohorts, their contribution somewhat diminishes with age. In urban areas, amenity, and economic variable groupings have approximately equal importance across all cohorts. For the key young adult cohort, the economic grouping is clearly the most influential in rural areas, while it is a close second to amenities in urban areas.     

Density,Distance, and Division: Rural Poverty in a Developing‐Country Context

The 3Ds, namely, density, distance, and division, are important for regional economic development and are integrated into a “3D” analytical framework in the 2009 World Development Report. Few empirical studies have examined the relevance of the 3D framework for explaining rural poverty in a developing‐country context. The effects of density on poverty are seldom studied, and distances to different layers of city centers on poverty may vary across different contexts. This paper aims to fill these gaps. Examining the case of Guizhou Province in China and adopting methods of the ordinary least square, instrument variable, and spatial econometrics, we find the evidence of the 3D framework for explaining rural poverty at the county level. Population density has a negative effect on rural poverty, while division, as measured by share of the ethnic minority population, has a positive effect. The effects of distance are mixed. Distance to Guiyang, which is the provincial political‐economic center of Guizhou province, has a negative effect on rural poverty, whereas distance to the local city center has no effect. These results can provide important policy implications for local poverty‐alleviation.     

农民收入与消费水平的变化和影响因素分析

我国农民收入和消费的阶段性变化,客观反映了我国农村经济发展的特征。增加农民收入是提高农民消费水平的根本途径。本文以福建省为例,通过对改革开放以来农民收入与消费阶段性变化的分析,探讨农村改革、市场建设、消费环境、货币收入等因素对农民收入和消费的影响,为增加农民收入,提高农民消费水平的对策研究提供理论依据。     

上海市水产品消费需求的双对数模型分析

为了研究上海市水产品消费需求的影响因素以及不同因素贡献度的大小,以上海市1999—2010年城市居民家庭人均水产品消费量、城市化水平、水产品价格指数、替代品价格指数、居民消费价格指数、居民家庭人均可支配收入等相关数据作为研究对象,采用Eviews软件对上海市水产品消费需求进行回归分析。建立了包括城市居民家庭人均可支配收入、居民消费价格指数、总人口数这些影响因素在内的上海市水产品消费需求模型。另外,通过建立关于城市居民家庭人均可支配收入、居民价格指数、总人口数的模型,对这些影响因素进行预测,从而可以对上海市水产品消费进行预测。最终认为,要增加上海市水产品的消费需求,必须从提高家庭人均可支配收入、控制居民消费价格指数、发展水产品深加工业、加强物流体系建设以及加强水产品市场质量管理等方面入手,推动上海水产业持续稳定的发展。     

伊犁马长途运输应激血液生理、生化及激素指标的动态变化规律

为了解伊犁马经长途运输过程中的血液生理生化指标的动态变化规律,本试验选用6匹雄性伊犁马,进行路程400 km,历时480 min的长途运输,并分别于上车运输前、中、后等8个时间点采集颈静脉血进行血液指标的检测.结果显示:与上车前相比,在运输4h时马血液中红细胞总数(RBC)、淋巴细胞比率(LYM％)显著下降(P＜0.0...     

Geographic perspectives on elderly population growth

"The proportion of a region's population that is elderly may change over time for many different reasons. The proportion may grow because of the net in-migration of elderly individuals, or it may grow because of the net out-migration of nonelderly residents. Furthermore, the proportion may grow if the number of nonmovers in the 'pre-elderly' cohort is relatively high. This paper discusses in detail the ways in which this proportion may change over time. This is complemented by a state-level empirical study of elderly population growth in the United States during the late 1980s. The spatial pattern of the rate of new entry into the elderly cohort among nonmovers is found to be particularly influential in determining changes in the proportion of a state's population that is elderly."     

Air Passenger Transportation and Growth in the U.S. Urban System, 1950–1987

The relationship between transportation and urbanization at the national scale is revisited by focusing upon the role that air passenger transportation has played in the post-war evolution of the U.S. urban system. Theory suggests that major transportation innovations have exhibited profound and prolonged interdependencies with patterns of growth in national or regional urban systems. As the most recent major intercity transportation innovation, it should be expected that utilization of air transportation should bear some relationship to patterns of growth in urban places. This paper documents this relationship by using FAA and U.S. Census data to correlate volumes of air passenger flows per capita with changes in population and employment for the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. The expectation that higher volumes of air passenger flow per capita exhibit a positive correlation with both previous and subsequent growth is confirmed by the analysis. More detailed examination of both high and low air passenger index cities suggests functional and regional consistencies with the central hypothesis. The implications of these results for air transportation and airport planning include at least some justification for increased attention to provision of air service and adequate airport infrastructure as well as reiteration of the importance of air transportation in economic development.     

乡村振兴背景下新疆城乡融合发展水平研究——人口-产业-公共服务的综合评价

推进城乡在经济、社会、生态等方面融合性、协调性、关联性发展,是实现乡村振兴的重要路径。通过构建新疆城乡融合发展综合评价体系,测算研究区2014—2019年城乡融合发展指数,分析探讨影响因素,揭示城乡融合发展的趋势特征与地区差异。结果表明：研究期内（1）新疆城乡融合发展水平总体呈增强态势,城乡融合发展不断加强。城乡公共服务、城乡产业经济是新疆城乡融合发展的主要动力;城乡人口要素和城乡生活质量成为制约城乡融合发展综合水平提升的关键因素。（2）新疆各地州市城乡融合发展水平差距逐渐缩小,城乡融合发展水平整体呈现稳定增长态势;人口要素融合增长较快,公共服务融合增长较慢。据此,研究建议构建大、中、小多层次城镇空间格局,强化中心城市主体功能区建设,推进一、二、三产业融合,加快构建城乡均等化公共服务体系等对策建议,有助于正确把握和评价新疆各地州城乡融合发展实践,推动新型城镇化与乡村振兴战略协调发展。     

稻米直链淀粉及其含量研究进展

直链淀粉含量（AC）是影响稻米食用品质的关键因素之一。文章综合了国内外水稻研究人员对稻米直链淀粉的研究成果,重点论述了直链淀粉的结构,理化性质;直链淀粉含量（AC）对稻米食味的影响,AC的遗传机制,相关性状,影响AC的环境因素,AC变化的机理,AC研究与测定方法进展,改善AC的措施以及AC研究中存在的问题。     

Study on Urban Quality Assessment Index System of Waterfront Landscapes

Urban waterfront space as an essential part of urban landscape belt refl ects unique city images and cultures, and it is an important region for urban leisure activities. With the promotion of new urbanization, population explosion has had new requirements on existing waterfront landscape spaces. Accurate assessment of the quality of waterfront landscaping scheme is the premise and basis of building high-quality landscapes. This paper, on the basis of landscape trialism, landscape assessment standards from the perspectives of landscape environment, landscape aesthetics, and landscape function, elaborated the relationship among the three aspects, proposed the basic framework for the quality assessment of urban waterfront landscapes, and refi ned the control factors, summarized the specific assessment factors, in order to establish an index system fit for the quality asssessment of urban waterfront landscapes, and provide references for urban waterfront landscaping in China.     

辽宁春季界限温度发生日期的预报方法研究

为了在春季气候预测工作中,尽可能准确地预测辽宁春季稳定通过5℃的日期,采用1961—2010年辽宁省53站逐日气温资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析的月平均位势高度场、海平面气压场资料以及由NOAA重构的月平均海温场资料,通过相关分析方法并开展物理因子的普查工作,寻找辽宁春季稳定通过5℃日期的影响因子,并利用多元线性回归方法建立预报方程。结果表明：1961—2010年辽宁春季气温稳定通过5℃日期随时间有提前出现的趋势;稳定通过5℃日期与2月北大西洋海温、1月西北太平洋海温、2月北极涛动、1月印度洋海温、10月阿留申低压强度和1月北大西洋涛动关系密切;建立的预报稳定通过5℃日期的多元线性回归方程具有显著意义。     

生态补偿实现机理探讨

生态补偿是促进生态环境保护的一种经济激励手段。在对多元化的生态补偿概念进行阐述的基础上,结合生态补偿产生的经济学原理,给出影响生态补偿实现机理的相关性分析。结合因子间的相互联系,论述生态补偿实现形式多样化的原因。结合制度理论相关知识,对生态补偿实现机理进行深层次阐述。在对生态补偿政策方针指标适用维度进行分析的基础上,给出推荐的生态补偿政策方针。探讨性给出生态补偿实现框架,并针对实施层面可能出现的问题,给出进一步的完善策略。     

四川省第一产业从业人员变化及其驱动力分析

农业人口是四川省农业发展的重要基础之一,探明四川省第一产业从业人员变化的关键驱动因子,对于区域政策的制定具有重要的现实意义。基于此,本研究从人员从业结构、经济发展水平、医疗教育资源、农业科技进步、人口质量、迁移成本、空间位置和耕作条件等8个方面选择了25个潜在驱动因子,采用人口测度法、逐步回归分析法和结构方程模型,以1999—2008年和2008—2018年两个时期四川省5个经济区共计21个地市（州）为研究对象,分析了第一产业从业人员数量的变化特征及影响其变化的驱动因子。结果显示：①1999—2018年内,80.95%的地市（州）第一产业从业人员持续减少,9.52%的地市（州）第一产业从业人员在增加后持续减少。②1999—2018年内第一产业从业人员的改变与地形密切相关。③除地形外,1999—2008年的主要驱动因子还有人口出生率、中学生数量和三产产值的变化,2008—2018年的主动驱动因子则还有房价和农业机械化水平。④在1999—2008年中,区域平均坡度对第一产业从业人员年变化率的影响以通过影响中学生数量的年变化率和出生率的年变化率的间接效应为主,但直接效应不可忽视。⑤在2008—2018年中,农用电机数量的年变化率直接有效影响第一产业从业人员年变化率。农业机械的推广和应用可以促使更多的人口从事第一产业的生产劳动。上述研究结果暗示了农业劳动力流失的内在机制存在明显的时间分异。目前,虽然农业劳动力的地域分异特征明显,但农业科技的直接效应已经进一步凸显,未来将有望依赖农业科技打破第一产业从业人员的地域分异规律。     

Implications of climate change for diseases,crop yields and food security

Accelerated climate change affects components of complex biological interactions differentially, often causing changes that are difficult to predict. Crop yield and quality are affected by climate change directly, and indirectly, through diseases that themselves will change but remain important. These effects are difficult to dissect and model as their mechanistic bases are generally poorly understood. A combination of integrated modelling from different disciplines and multi-factorial experimentation is needed to advance our understanding and prioritisation of the challenges. This will help prioritise breeding objectives. Food security brings in additional socio-economic, geographical and political factors. Enhancing resilience to the effects of climate change is important for all these systems and functional diversity, particularly in tolerance traits for abiotic and biotic stress, is one of the most effective targets for improved sustainability.     

The Planning Response to Urban Service Sector Growth: an International Comparison

The restructuring of urban economies from manufacturing to service industries has been a major feature of the last twenty-five years. Large cities with a population of at least one million have been at the forefront of this change with the primate cities of the newly industrialized countries increasingly affected. The growth characteristics, planning experiences, and policy implications of the expansion of service industries in large and medium-size metropolitan areas around the world are examined. This has illuminated issues connected with the interurban competition for services. The service sector has shaped new urban planning and public policy agendas and the way in which metropolitan areas in this study have started to reshape their policies provides a good lead for others to follow. It is likely that new pressures will strengthen the need to look beyond their established urban planning policies to broader, integrated urban management policies.     

Urban human activity density spatiotemporal variations and the relationship with geographical factors: An exploratory Baidu heatmaps-based analysis of Wuhan,China

With the development and popularity of mobile Internet technology, data sources of human activity in urban centers are rapidly updated and play an important role in supporting urban planning and management. Therefore, it is critical to integrate different data sources and detect spatially implicit information in the spatial pattern of relationships between urban human activity and related geographical factors. A new analytical framework is first proposed to integrate multisource location-based big data and use these data to analyze dynamic real-time human activity density (HAD). Taking Wuhan, the largest city in central China as an example, using the Baidu’s thermal data, this paper analyzes spatiotemporal characteristics of HAD distributions at different points on weekends and weekdays, and further combines the relevant cities’ points of interest data to analyze the correlations between different spatial elements and HAD distributions. The results show that: (a) Using a new indicator and data processing method can simply achieve effective utilization of Baidu’s thermal data; (b) Combined with standardized grids, spatial density estimation can match the two different data sources in this study; (c) The greater the HAD, the greater is the elasticity of change, and in the active population area, the densities of human activity on weekends and weekdays at different times have significant differences; and (d) Different geographically weighted regression models effectively distinguish the influence of different urban elements on weekdays and weekends. In particular, the impact patterns of the workplace, education, and cityscape reflect the unique spatial patterns of research cases. These findings, as well as visual analytics, help in the understanding of the potential value of Baidu heatmaps in urban study and provide support for more scientific and accurate urban planning and space management for the better consideration of real-time changes in human activity.     

Analysis Influential Factors and Workable Mechanism of Work Efficiency of Knowledge Worker

In the base-knowledge economic age,as far as how to improve work efficiency of knowledge worker is concerned,this paper analyzes influential factors of work efficiency of knowledge worker on the whole,and classifies them into four sorts: individual factor,task factor,management factor,environment factor.The authors establish concept model in crucial influential factors according to interrelated theory of management and psychology.The interrelation and workable mechanism of influential factors are analyzed according to the characteristics of knowledge worker and individual behavior model on the bases of theory of achievement and motivation.The result shows individual factors affect work efficiency directly,task factor,management factor and environment factor which support and restrict individual factor indirectly affect work efficiency.     

半农半牧区农户生产现状及对气候变化的感知与应对——基于内蒙古林西县的调查研究

半农半牧区是全球气候变化反应敏感的生态脆弱带。该地区农业基础设施落后,人口与资源矛盾突出,生产力水平低下,经济欠发达,受气候变化影响,农民的生产生活水平的维持与提高面临着十分严峻的挑战。本调查研究以内蒙古赤峰市林西县为例,利用1954~2009年气象数据资料分析了该地区56年来年际和主要季节温度、降水变化趋势;同时,选用60个农户家庭调查样本,研究了农户家庭基本状况与经营现状、农牧户家庭对气候变化及其影响的感知与应对策略。最后,在全面总结研究结果的基础上提出增强农户家庭气候变化适应能力的对策建议。     

Improved Vehicle Detection Algorithm Based on Edge Information

Collecting real-time traffic flow information is a foundational function in intelligent transportation systems. Video based traffic monitoring system has advantage of installation and maintenance, so it iswidely used for traffic monitoring on main road and crossroad. Shadows result from roadside building or trees are one of the factors that arise errors in video based vehicle detection. An improved method based on edge information is proposed for vehicle detection and shadow rejection. Finally vehicle counting is achieved based on the edge detection method.     

两型社会建设背景下长株潭城市群耕地安全性评价

摘要：耕地是一种具有经济、生态和社会价值的重要资源,它的数量、质量和生态状况关乎一个地区资源节约和环境友好型社会的建设。本论文运用长株潭城市群耕地利用历史数据,采取层次分析、障碍度分析等研究方法,以两型社会建设理论为依据,在定性描述耕地资源安全内涵的基础上,从资源节约、环境友好两个方面构建评价指标体系,对长株潭城市群耕地资源安全状况进行了评价和障碍度诊断。研究的主要结论是：（1）耕地资源安全具有系统性特征,其内涵涵盖数量安全、质量安全和生态安全,并成为一个有机整体;（2）研究区耕地安全总体及数量、质量和生态状况差异显著,1990-2007年间长株潭城市群耕地安全的总体状况趋于变坏,安全评估得分值从1990年的2.125降到2007年的0.158,表明该地区耕地资源安全存在制约因素;（3）通过障碍因素分析发现,研究区不同时段障碍因素不同,1990-1995年,耕地安全的障碍因素是城市化和经济的过快发展;1996-2002年,障碍因子则转变为地均粮食单产、地均经济产出等过低,而2003-2007年,则表现为环境污染排放等耕地的生态压力因素加大。