Consequences of spatial heterogeneity for ecosystem services in changing forest landscapes: priorities for future research

Changes in key drivers (e.g., climate, disturbance regimes and land use) may affect the sustainability of forest landscapes and set the stage for increased tension among competing ecosystem services. We addressed two questions about a suite of supporting, regulating and provisioning ecosystem services in each of two well-studied forest landscapes in the western US: (1) How might the provision of ecosystem services change in the future given anticipated trajectories of climate, disturbance regimes, and land use? (2) What is the role of spatial heterogeneity in sustaining future ecosystem services? We determined that future changes in each region are likely to be distinct, but spatial heterogeneity (e.g., the amount and arrangement of surviving forest patches or legacy trees after disturbance) will be important in both landscapes for sustaining forest regeneration, primary production, carbon storage, natural hazard regulation, insect and pathogen regulation, timber production and wildlife habitat. The paper closes by highlighting five general priorities for future research. The science of landscape ecology has much to contribute toward understanding ecosystem services and how land management can enhance—or threaten—the sustainability of ecosystem services in changing landscapes.     

Diagnostic tools to evaluate a spatial land change projection along a gradient of an explanatory variable

This paper proposes a method to quantify the goodness-of-fit of a land change projection along a gradient of an explanatory variable, by classifying pixels as one of four types: null successes, false alarms, hits, and misses. The method shows: (1) how the correctness and error of a land change projection are distributed along the gradient of an explanatory variable, (2) how the gradient of the explanatory variable relates to the stationarity of the land transition processes, and (3) how to use the insights from the previous two points to search for additional explanatory variables. The paper illustrates the method through a case study that applies the model Geomod in Central Massachusetts, USA. Results reveal that the model predicts more than the observed amount of change on flat slopes and less than the observed amount of change on steep slopes. One reason for these types of errors is that the land change process during the calibration interval is different than the process during the prediction interval with respect to slope. The method allows modelers to use the validation step as a diagnostic tool to search for potentially influential missing variables and to gain insight into land transition processes. The technique is designed to be applicable to a variety of types of land change models.     

The risk of ignoring fear: underestimating the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity

Landscape Ecology - Habitat loss and fragmentation threaten species not only through structural landscape changes and resource reduction, but also through modifications to species’...     

Plant strategies and agricultural landscapes: survival in spatially and temporally fragmented habitat

In agricultural landscapes many plant species are limited to the network of landscape elements that are not used for agricultural production. This habitat is fragmented in space and time due to anthropogenic, biotic and abiotic factors. Therefore, plant populations are spatially sub-divided and their persistence might be dependent on the spatial dynamics in the network of local populations. Dispersal characteristics and seed bank persistence are main determinants of colonization ability which in turn is a key determinant of metapopulation viability. We propose a conceptual model that relates plant population dynamics to habitat quality, configuration and dynamics. In this model, the habitat is arranged as a network of suitable and unsuitable patches,and the distribution of the patches is assumed to be dynamic in time. Based on dispersal and seed bank characteristics four plant strategies are distinguished:species having either long (> 100 m) or short (< 100m) distance dispersal and either a long (> 5 yr)or short (< 5 yr) term persistent seed bank. We expect that species with contrasting strategies have different survival probabilities in landscapes with contrasting habitat arrangement in space and time. We found few empirical studies for testing the hypotheses based on the model. Therefore the relation between landscapes and plant survival needs to be further explored,especially the quantitative aspects. We propose an iterative process of empirical and modelling research to determine this relation and to define management options for multifunctional farms in which biodiversity is one of the land use aims. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Distribution of invasive plants in urban environment is strongly spatially structured

Context

Urban environments create a wide range of habitats that harbour a great diversity of plant species, many of which are of alien origin. For future urban planning and management of the green areas within the city, understanding of the spatial distribution of invasive alien species is of great importance.

Objectives

Our main aim was to assess how availability of different ecosystem types within a city area, as well as several parameters describing urban structure interact in determining the cover and identity of invasive alien species.

Methods

We studied the distribution of chosen invasive plant species in a mid-sized city in the Czech Republic, central Europe, on a gradient of equal sized cells from the city centre to its outskirts.

Results

A great amount of variation was explained by spatial predictors but not shared with any measured variables. The species cover of invasive species decreased with increasing proportion of urban greenery and distance from the city centre, but increased with habitat richness; road margins, ruderal sites, and railway sites were richest in invasive species. In contrast, the total number of invasive species in cells significantly decreased with increasing distance from the city centre, but increased with habitat richness.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that different invasive species prefer habitats in the vicinity of the city centre and at its periphery and the spatial structure and habitat quality of the urban landscape needs to be taken into account, in efforts to manage alien plant species invasions in urban environments.

     

Ecosystem services and connectivity in spatial conservation prioritization

Context

Spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) concerns, for example, identification of spatial priorities for biodiversity conservation or for impact avoidance in economic development. Software useable for SCP include Marxan, C-Plan and Zonation. SCP is often based on data about the distributions of biodiversity features (e.g., species, habitats), costs, threats, and/or ecosystem services (ES).

Objectives and methods

At simplest ES can be entered into a SCP analysis as independent supply maps, but this is not very satisfactory because connectivity requirements and consequent ideal spatial priority patterns may vary between ES. Therefore, we examine different ES and their connectivity requirements at the conceptual level.

Results

We find that the ideal spatial priority pattern for ES may differ in terms of: local supply area size and regional network requirements for the maintenance of ES provision, for flow between provision and demand, and with respect to the degree of dispersion that is needed for ES provision and access across different administrative regions. We then identify existing technical options in the Zonation software for dealing with such connectivity requirements of ES in SCP.

Conclusions

This work helps users of SCP to improve how ES are accounted for in analysis together with biodiversity and other considerations.

     

Modeling the spatially dynamic distribution of humans in the Oregon (USA) Coast Range

A common approach to land use change analyses in multidisciplinary landscape-level studies is to delineate discrete forest and non-forest or urban and non-urban land use categories to serve as inputs into sets of integrated sub-models describing socioeconomic and ecological processes. Such discrete land use categories, however, may be inappropriate when the socioeconomic and ecological processes under study are sensitive to a range of human habitation. In this paper, we characterize the spatial dynamic distribution of humans throughout the forest landscape of western Oregon (USA). We develop an empirical model describing the spatial distribution and rate of change in historic building densities as a function of a gravity index of development pressure, existing building densities, slope, elevation, and existing land use zoning. We use the empirical model to project changes in building densities that are applied to a 1995 base map of building density to describe future spatial distributions of buildings over time. The projected building density maps serve as inputs into a multidisciplinary landscape-level analysis of socioeconomic and ecological processes in Oregon's Coast Range Mountains. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Consequences of Landscape Heterogeneity on Grassland Diversity and Productivity in the Espinal Agroforestry System of Central Chile

The current land use system in the anthropogenic savannas (Espinales) of the Mediterranean climate region of Chile, has resulted in considerable heterogeneity at the landscape level which is associated with different covers of the legume tree, Acacia caven. The effects of landscape heterogeneity on the diversity and productivity of herbaceous plant communities were studied in 29 plots of 1000 m², with a wide range of woody cover. A detrended correspondence analysis of the species × plots matrix explained 73% of the total variation and revealed the existence of two trends of variation in floristic composition: one associated with physiographic position (hillsides and flatlands) and the other related to the number of years since the last cutting, or coppicing, of A. caven. Despite the great majority of the original herbaceous species having disappeared as a result of the prevailing land use system, some native species have been able to survive especially on hillside areas with low grazing intensity. Woody cover was a good indicator of spatial heterogeneity and land use history. It was also correlated with stocking rate, above-ground biomass of herbaceous vegetation, and soil fertility (organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorus concentration), both on hillsides and flatlands. The relationship between woody cover and herbaceous plant species richness was significant and unimodal in flat land areas, and linear, and marginally significant, on hillsides. The consequences of land use changes on the conservation of the ecological and productive values of grasslands are analyzed.     

Mapping the probability of large fire occurrence in northern Arizona, USA

In the southwestern U.S., wildland fire frequency and area burned have steadily increased in recent decades, a pattern attributable to multiple ignition sources. To examine contributing landscape factors and patterns related to the occurrence of large (⩾20 ha in extent) fires in the forested region of northern Arizona, we assembled a database of lightning- and human-caused fires for the period 1 April to 30 September, 1986–2000. At the landscape scale, we used a weights-of-evidence approach to model and map the probability of occurrence based on all fire types (n = 203), and lightning-caused fires alone (n = 136). In total, large fires burned 101,571 ha on our study area. Fires due to lightning were more frequent and extensive than those caused by humans, although human-caused fires burned large areas during the period of our analysis. For all fires, probability of occurrence was greatest in areas of high topographic roughness and lower road density. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)-dominated forest vegetation and mean annual precipitation were less important predictors. Our modeling results indicate that seasonal large fire events are a consequence of non-random patterns of occurrence, and that patterns generated by these events may affect the regional fire regime more extensively than previously thought. Identifying the factors that influence large fires will improve our ability to target resource protection efforts and manage fire risk at the landscape scale.     

Analyzing spatial inequalities in use and experience of urban green spaces

As cities become more densely populated, urban green spaces (UGS) are increasingly important due to the environmental and social benefits they provide. Cities are confronted with the challenge of equitable supply of high-quality urban green that meets the demand of residents. This is particularly relevant in lower-income neighborhoods, which tend to suffer from the lowest supply of (high quality) UGS. In this paper, we perform spatial analysis on the responses of an online user survey to explore how UGS frequency of use, choice, and satisfaction differ by use pattern and place of residence in the Brussels Capital Region. Additionally, we identify the “push-pull” factors of individual UGS by identifying the desirable (pull) and undesirable (push) qualities that may attract or repel the use of a UGS. We find that use pattern is related to choice and experience of UGS. Compared to people who use UGS for social purposes, those who use UGS for nature-oriented reasons more often choose to visit UGS that are substantially farther from their home but are more often satisfied with the UGS they use. Our findings also show that respondents living in areas with higher proportions of disadvantaged groups tend to travel substantially farther to reach their UGS and are more often dissatisfied with the UGS they visit. Finally, our push-pull analysis indicates that characteristics that are important to nature-oriented users, such as quietness and calmness, are often more negatively experienced in dense city center UGS. Our research thus demonstrates the need to bring more green, particularly green that elicits a feeling of “naturalness”, to areas of the city where low green space quality and quantity overlap with areas inhabited by vulnerable populations.     

Temporal and spatial variation of a winter soundscape in south-central Alaska

Context

Winter soundscapes are likely different from soundscapes in other seasons considering wildlife vocalizations (biophony) decrease, wind events (geophony) increase, and winter vehicle noise (technophony) occurs. The temporal variation and spatial relationships of soundscape components to the landscape in winter have not been quantified and described until now.

Objectives

Our objectives were to determine the temporal and spatial variation and acoustic–environmental relationships of a winter soundscape in south-central Alaska.

Methods

We recorded ambient sounds at 62 locations throughout Kenai National Wildlife Refuge (December 2011–April 2012). We calculated the normalized power spectral density in 59,597 recordings and used machine learning to determine acoustic–environmental relationships and produce spatial models of soundscape components.

Results

Geophony was the most prevalent component (84 %) followed by technophony (15 %), and biophony (1 %). Geophony occurred primarily at night, varied little by month, and was strongly associated with lakes. Technophony and biophony had similar temporal variation, peaking in April. Technophony occurred closer to urban areas and at locations with high snowmobile activity. Biophony occurred closer to rivers and was inversely related to snowmobile activity. Over 75 % of sample sites had >1 recordings of airplane or snowmobile noise, mainly in remote areas.

Conclusions

The soundscape displayed distinct patterns across 24-h and monthly timeframes. These patterns were strongly associated with land cover variables which demonstrate discrete acoustic–environmental relationships exhibiting distinct spatial patterns in the landscape. Despite the predominance of geophony, the presence of technophony in this winter soundscape may have significant negative effects to wildlife and wilderness quality.

     

Rural depopulation and recent landscape changes in a Mediterranean region: Consequences to the breeding avifauna

We studied the vegetational and avifaunistic changes following rural depopulation in an area covering 2,600 ha north of Montpellier (Southern France). The study area is covered by a mosaic of Mediterranean habitats that includes cultivation, grasslands, shrublands, and woodlands and is representative of the natural features present and of the human usage practiced so far in this part of the Mediterranean. We sampled the vegetation and the bird fauna in the same 193 census plots in 1978 and in 1992. At both the habitat and landscape scales the cover of woody plants increased significantly. Open habitats tend to disappear. As a consequence the abundance of open-habitat bird species decreased significantly whereas the abundance of forest birds increased significantly. These changes favor a pool of forest species widespread in western Europe and reduce habitat availability for open habitat and shrubland species. Many of the latter are Mediterranean species whose distribution in Western Europe could become reduced under current landscape dynamics. Our observation of more woodlands and their typical birds and of less open habitats and their associated avifauna is not consistent with the traditional worry shown by the public and the managers about the regression of forests and woodlands in the Northern Mediterranean as a consequence of fire.     

Modelling the spatial distribution of livestock in Europe

Livestock remains the world’s largest user of land and is strongly related to grassland and feed-crop production. Assessments of environmental impacts of livestock farming require detailed knowledge of the presence of livestock, farming practices, and environmental conditions. The present Europe-wide livestock distribution information is generally restricted to a spatial resolution of NUTS 2 (province level). This paper presents a modelling approach to determine the spatial distribution of livestock at the landscape level. Location factors for livestock occurrence were explored and applied to consistent and harmonized EU-wide regional statistics to produce a detailed spatial distribution of livestock numbers. Both an expert-based and an empirical approach were applied in order to disaggregate the data to grid level. The resulting livestock maps were validated. Results differ between the two downscaling approaches but also between livestock types and countries. While both the expert-based and empirical approach are equally suited to modelling herbivores, in general, the spatial distribution of monogastrics can be better modelled by applying the empirical approach.     

Consequences of delaying conservation of ecosystem services in remote landscapes prone to natural resource exploitation

Context

Natural resource extraction is expanding towards increasingly remote areas. Meanwhile, the sustainability of most ecosystem service (ES) supplies, which form a great part of the livelihoods, health and economy of inhabitants in remote regions, is threatened by large-scale land-use changes.

Objective

The aim of the study was to assess the consequences of postponing ES conservation planning in remote regions prone to industrial development. More specially, is there a development threshold at which ES conservation may be imperilled.

Methods

We simulated eight stages of development using actual data on hydroelectricity generation, forestry and mining expansion. Aiming to protect ten wetland’s ES provision, we assembled referential conservation networks prior to development and several alternative conservation solutions after each stage of development. We compared these networks and assessed the impact of land-use changes on the basic properties of ES conservation networks.

Results

We found that conservation network alternative solutions were more costly in terms of additional area needed to achieve all targets: up to 16 % more so, compared to referential networks. Past a certain stage of development, alternative solutions were composed of a significantly greater proportion of small sites and, consequently, the networks became much more fragmented. Development also changed the spatial configuration of networks: up to 66 % of the sites included in alternative solutions were not selected in the referential networks.

Conclusions

According to current trends, future development will strongly compete with ES conservation. Our study emphasizes the importance of implementing ES conservation actions before development, even in remote regions.

     

Derivation of a yearly transition probability matrix for land-use dynamics and its applications

Transition matrices have often been used in landscape ecology and GIS studies of land-use to quantitatively estimate the rate of change. When transition matrices for different observation periods are compared, the observation intervals often differ because satellite images or photographs of the research site taken at constant time intervals may not be available. If the observation intervals differ, the transition probabilities cannot be compared without calculating a transition matrix with the normalized observation interval. For such calculation, several previous studies have utilized a linear algebra formula of the power root of matrices. However, three difficulties may arise when applying this formula to a practical dataset from photographs of a research site. We examined the first difficulty, namely that plural solutions could exist for a yearly transition matrix, which implies that there could be multiple scenarios for the same transition in land-use change. Using data for the Abukuma Mountains in Japan and the Selva el Ocote Biosphere Reserve in Mexico, we then looked at the second difficulty, in which we may obtain no positive Markovian matrix and only a matrix partially consisting of negative numbers. We propose a way to calibrate a matrix with some negative transition elements and to estimate the prediction error. Finally, we discuss the third difficulty that arises when a new land-use category appears at the end of the observation period and how to solve it. We developed a computer program to calculate and calibrate the yearly matrices and to estimate the prediction error.     

Interaction of food resources and landscape structure in determining the probability of patch use by carnivores in fragmented landscapes

Studies on the distribution of mammalian carnivores in fragmented landscapes have focused mainly on structural aspects such as patch and landscape features; similarly, habitat connectivity is usually associated with landscape structure. The influence of food resources on carnivore patch use and the important effect on habitat connectivity have been overlooked. The aim of this study is to evaluate the relative importance of food resources on patch use patterns and to test if food availability can overcome structural constraints on patch use. We carried out a patch-use survey of two carnivores: the beech marten (Martes foina) and the badger (Meles meles) in a sample of 39 woodland patches in a fragmented landscape in central Italy. We used the logistic model to investigate the relative effects on carnivore distribution of patch, patch neighbourhood and landscape scale variables as well as the relative abundance of food resources. Our results show how carnivore movements in fragmented landscapes are determined not only by patch/landscape structure but also by the relative abundance of food resources. The important take-home message of our research is that, within certain structural limits (e.g. within certain limits of patch isolation), by modifying the relative amount of resources and their distribution, it is possible to increase suitability in smaller/relatively isolated patches. Conversely, however, there are certain thresholds above which an increase in resources will not achieve high probability of presence. Our findings have important and generalizable consequences for highly fragmented landscapes in areas where it may not be possible to increase patch sizes and/or reduce isolation so, for instance, forest regimes that will increase resource availability could be implemented. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Species diversity and spatial differentiation of old-valuable trees in urban Hong Kong

Heritage trees play special ecological, historical and landscape roles in cities. The officially designated old-valuable trees (OVTs) in Hong Kong, threatened by urban intensification and improper care, demand deep understanding to inform management and conservation. This study evaluated their floristic diversity, biomass structure and importance value, and spatial pattern and differentiation by districts and tree-habitats. Data analysis was assisted by detrended correspondence analysis (DCA), similarity percentage analysis (SIMPER) and other statistical tests. New indices, namely district dissimilarity index (DDI), district heterogeneity index (DHI), habitat dissimilarity index (HDI) and habitat heterogeneity index (HHI) helped to assess spatial differentiation. The 352 OVTs belonged to 70 species, 56 genera and 36 families. Ficus microcarpa dominated with maximum importance value, accompanied by only three common species. Some 22 rare and 44 solitary species denote diverse origins due to inheritance and cultivation. Moraceae and Ficus were the dominant family and genus. The oldest districts accommodated more species, trees, and unique species, whereas newer districts had notably less. DCA showed higher floristic fidelity in old districts, and three common Ficus species were ubiquitous in districts. SIMPER results showed the highest DDI and lowest DHI in the newer district. Public park and garden (PPG) habitat harbours most species, trees, and botanical uniqueness. Three Ficus species were also ubiquitous in habitats. Public housing and PPG had the highest HDI. District and habitat dissimilarities were mainly contributed by dominant and common species. Management implications with reference to preservation and enhancement of OVTs were explored, with applications for other cities.