Empirical downscaling of daily minimum air temperature at very fine resolutions in complex terrain

Available air temperature models do not adequately account for the influence of terrain on nocturnal air temperatures. An empirical model for night time air temperatures was developed using a network of one hundred and forty inexpensive temperature sensors deployed across the Bitterroot National Forest, Montana. A principle component analysis (PCA) on minimum temperatures showed that 98% of the spatiotemporal variability could be accounted for using the first two modes which described the coupling and decoupling of surface temperature from free air temperatures, respectively. The spatial character of these modes were strongly correlated with terrain variables and were then modeled to topographic variables derived from a 30 m digital elevation model. PCA scores were modeled using independent predictors from in situ observations and regional reanalysis that incorporate temperature, solar radiation and relative humidity. By applying modeled PC scores back to predicted loading surfaces, nighttime minimum temperatures were predicted at fine spatial resolution (30 m) for novel locations across a broad (∼45,000 km²), topographically complex landscape. Our results suggest that this modeling approach can be used with retrospective and projected predictors to model fine scale temperature variation across time in regions of complex terrain.     

基于CFD的温室气温时空变化预测模型及通风调控措施

夏季温室高温湿热,对作物生长产生重大危害,制定合理的夏季温室气温调控方案,是提高温室生产效益,降低温室气温调控能耗的关键问题。该文基于计算流体力学(computational fluid dynamics,CFD)方法,结合气象预报信息,针对苏南地区大型连栋温室,建立了夏季温室气温时空变化预测模型,通过设置边界参数,对不同通风条件下温室气温的时空变化进行了预测,并通过试验验证了模型的有效性。试验结果表明,预测值与实测值吻合良好,均方根误差在1.2℃以内,最大相对误差在6%以内,平均相对误差在4%以内。不同通风降温条件下的试验结果显示,温室气温空间分布存在明显差异,湿帘-风机系统较自然通风降温效果显著,降温幅度在5℃左右,持续的湿帘-风机降温措施可将温室高温控制在较低水平。基于该文模型的预测结果和温室调控目标,选取合适的时间点、时间长度和不同类型的通风降温措施,可有效提高温室气温调控效率和效益。同时,该研究还可为优化传感器布局提供依据。     

华北平原夏玉米潜在产量时空演变及其对气候变化的响应

华北平原是我国的粮食主产区,为探讨气候变化可能对该地区粮食产量产生的影响,本文以中国科学院青藏高原研究所的中国区域地面气象要素数据集为基础,对作物生长模型WOFOST(WOrld FOod STudy)进行面域化,模拟华北平原1979—2015年夏玉米的生长情况;利用一元线性回归、经验正交分解(EOF)分析了华北平原夏玉米潜在产量的时空变化,利用逐个栅格相关性分析、奇异值分解(SVD)分析了华北平原不同区域夏玉米潜在产量与全生育期、吐丝前和吐丝后平均温度及日均太阳总辐射的相关性。结果表明,研究区夏玉米潜在产量大致呈现从南向北逐渐升高的特点,大部分地区夏玉米潜在产量为7 000~9 000 kg?hm~(-2);研究区西北部夏玉米潜在产量波动较大,波动较小的地区在北京南部、天津以及河北中部一带,标准差在500 kg?hm~(-2)以下;研究区西北部及河北唐山北部以及山东半岛东部夏玉米潜在产量呈上升趋势,这些地区的夏玉米潜在产量上升幅度大部分在200~600 kg?hm~(-2)?(10a)~(-1);研究区的其余大部分地区夏玉米潜在产量呈下降趋势,其中河北中南部、天津、鲁西北以及皖北的部分区域下降较明显,变化幅度在-250 kg?hm~(-2)?(10a)~(-1)左右。河北西部和东北部、北京西北部以及山东中部和东部等地区的夏玉米潜在产量与气温具有较显著的相关关系,相关系数在0.9以上,这些地区的夏玉米潜在产量在过去37年呈上升趋势,表明这些地区夏玉米潜在产量的增加可能是由气温上升导致的。北京东部和南部、天津、河北中南部及秦皇岛唐山南部、山东、河南东部、皖北和苏北等地区的夏玉米潜在产量与太阳总辐射具有较好的相关关系,相关系数在0.8左右,其中,吐丝后通过显著性检验的区域较吐丝前大,相关系数也较吐丝前大,该区域大部分地区夏玉米潜在产量呈下降趋势,可能是由该区域太阳总辐射下降导致的,且总辐射的下降主要对夏玉米的生殖生长阶段构成影响。总的来说,研究区夏玉米潜在产量上升的区域与温度的上升有关,温度的变化是这些地区夏玉米潜在产量变化的主导因子;研究区夏玉米潜在产量下降的区域与太阳总辐射的下降有关,太阳总辐射的变化是这些地区夏玉米潜在产量变化的主导因子。因此,气候变化背景下针对华北平原不同地区制定不同的合理应对措施显得尤为重要。     

Seasonal,annual, and treatment-induced variation in available nitrogen pools and nitrogen-cycling processes in soils of two Douglas-fir stands

Summary Forest-floor and 0–10 cm depth mineral soil horizons in two stands of Douglas fir were sampled for available NH₄ ⁺-N and NO₃ ^–-N, N-mineralization potentials, and nitrification potentials for 2 years. The plots in each stand were sampled for 1 year, treated with either ammonium sulfate, carbohydrate (sawdust-sucrose), irrigation, carbohydrate plus irrigation, or no treatment (control), and then sampled for 1 year following treatment. In general, the direction of change following the treatments was the same for both the forest-floor and the mineral soils. Fertilization increased the NH₄ ⁺-N and NO₃ ^–-N pools, nitrification potential, and N-mineralization potential, while treatment with carbohydrate decreased all of these characteristics. Irrigation generally increased NH₄ ⁺-N pools, nitrification potential, and N-mineralization potential, but decreased these characteristics in the soil at one site. Irrigation plus carbohydrate gave similar results to those of carbohydrate alone. Treatments altered pool sizes and/or potentials, but did not reduce within-year variance in any of these characteristics. Distinct seasonal patterns occurred in all measurements, suggesting that control of short-term variation in N-transformation processes is by factors which are dynamic in nature.