Spatial structures of soil organic carbon in tropical forests—A case study of Southeastern Tanzania

Southeastern Tanzania serves as a typical example of soil degradation and soil organic carbon (SOC) losses on the African continent. Although sequestration of SOC through aforestation or reforestation proved favorable, these measures are restricted by the ability to produce rapid, cost-effective and precise sampling schemes. The aim of this study is to contribute to a better knowledge of the spatial distribution of soil C in tropical natural and plantation forest. This paper presents sampling strategies for estimating mean SOC values as well as for SOC mapping, based on different methods for SOC determination and on different precision levels. To do so we conducted a carbon variability study in five common forest types of Southeastern Tanzania (coastal dry forest, Miombo woodland, teak plantation, pine plantation and cashew plantation) using conventional statistical methods, as well as geostatistics. In the 5 forest types of this study, SOC stocks in the upper 5 cm ranges between 5 (in the cashew plantation) and 13 (in the coastal forest) t ha^− 1. The optimal sampling distance for measuring mean SOC stocks varies between 36 m (in the patchy miombo woodland) and 422 m (in the homogenized cashew plantation). Sample sizes fluctuate between 6 and 72 (1 t ha^− 1 precision) for respectively cashew plantation and coastal forest. A rectangular grid with a sample interval of 25 m can be used for SOC mapping with a point kriging estimation error of 3.0 t ha^− 1 in the coastal forest, 2.6 t ha^− 1 in miombo woodland, 2.2 t ha^− 1 in the teak plantation and 1.1 t ha^− 1 in the cashew plantation. Since the pine plantation has no spatial structure; samples can be arranged randomly and its best soil map has an average C content attributed over the whole field. Refining the sampling strategy with a new spatial variability study in other forest types can be based on a regular grid with sampling distances of half the range identified in this study. This paper proves that the optimal sampling scheme varies strongly as a result of the different spatial behavior of SOC in forests and depends on the required precision and research question. Only when the right strategy is followed, high standards of precision can be met without economic loss or risk of statistical misinterpretation.     

ENSO classification indices and summer crop yields in the Southeastern USA

This research uses a quantitative methodology for directly comparing the responses of observed crop yields in the SE USA to ENSO phenomena classified using dissimilar ENSO indices. ENSO condition has been related to agricultural yields in many parts of the world. It has been generally recognized that the strongest effects on spring and summer crops occur during the boreal winter, and therefore most directly affect spring-summer field crops in the southern hemisphere. However, some ENSO effects on northern hemisphere spring and summer crops have been found, particularly when researchers have used sub-annual indicators of ENSO conditions that, unlike annual ENSO indices, distinguish between continuity and change prior to or during the crop season. To evaluate the utility of such sub-annual ENSO indicators for agriculture in the SE USA, a tercile-based scoring system was devised to compare four distinct ENSO indices: three monthly ENSO indices and the JMA annual ENSO index. Each index was scored in its ability to predict crop yields differing from the historically normal tercile for corn (Zea mays L.), cotton (Gossypiumhirsutum L.), and peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.). Annual crop yield data were used from selected counties in five Southeastern USA states. No geographic differentiation among the data was included in the analysis. This aggregation of county data increased the sample size for each crop, to address the limitation of a short time-series (47 years) distributed among up to 9 ENSO categories. Statistical significance was compared using contingency tables and the Fisher exact test. Peanut and corn yield response matched best to the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and cotton, to the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). The MEI and ONI are quantitative indices, while the lower-scoring JMA and Modified-JMA indices are categorical. Therefore, future efforts may reduce the focus on categorical (Niño, Niña, Neutral) classification, and explore the response of crop yields to quantitative ENSO data.     

Land degradation,rainfall variability and food production in the Sahelian zone of the Sudan

The recent agricultural policies in the Sudan have focused on mechanized large-scale, rainfed agricultural ventures achieving increased grain production through expansion of the cultivated area only, not through increased per unit yield. The total harvested area increased steadily from about 4·5 million ha in 1961 to about 14 million ha in 1996, with great year-to-year variations of harvested areas, and therefore total yields, revealing a fragile balance between production and need. Per unit yields of all crops are steadily decreasing, currently reaching rates far below their genetic potential. The work reported here was intended to look into the causes of the fluctuations in yield and to propose some strategic approaches that may offer a path to sustainability of such crop production. Several factors may be contributing to these poor yields. This study shows that loss of soil fertility and rainfall variability are among such factors. Crops yields were negatively correlated at a one per cent level of significance with the cropping season indicating significant decline in soil fertility. Soil fertility management and fertilizers use could therefore be of great importance in formulating proactive strategies to enhance productivity in the rainfed agriculture in the Sudan. Rainfall in different production subregions had different levels of correlation with yields of all crops. Comparison of long-term rainfall in the four subregions of the study area showed that rainfall decline had been in the magnitude of 30–40 per cent. The western parts of the study area (Kordofan and Darfur) experienced extreme rainfall anomalies than the eastern and central parts (Gedaref and Damazin), and had suffered greater periods of desiccation than the eastern and central parts. The decadal rainfall means showed below average rainfall for the last three decades in all subregions; the western parts again showing greatest desiccation. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The status and conservation of the cheetah Acinonyx jubatus in Tanzania

This is the first assessment of the status of cheetahs, Acinonyx jubatus, in Tanzania since 1965. It completes a series of recent studies in Kenya, Uganda, and Malawi to provide an overall understanding of the species’ status in East Africa. Interviews with 370 informants yielded 1050 cheetah sightings. Eighty nine percent of all sightings were made in 1990-1994, and 39% of all sightings occurred in protected areas. All-adult groups contained 1.92±0.04 S.D. individuals; the average number of dependent cubs was 2.63±0.08 S.D.; and the cub-to-adult ratio was 0.34. Since the 1960s, the distribution has remained stable overall with possible reductions in central Tanzania. No definite population trends were detected. With an estimated 569-1007 cheetahs, Tanzania emerges as a sanctuary for the species worldwide. However rangelands, which may hold half of Tanzania’s cheetahs, are undergoing rapid degradation. This precarious situation calls for the establishment of a nationwide monitoring program. Distribution map and population sizes from this study could serve as a baseline for monitoring the species’ status.     

菜田土壤养分空间变异特征

采用传统统计和地统计相结合的方法，对55hm^2菜田耕层土壤养分空间变异特征进行了研究。结果表明，土壤养分主要限制因子是N、P、K和Zn。不同土壤养分的变异情况各不相同。土壤养分速效含量一般呈斑块状分布；土壤NO3^- -N、P、K和Zn含量在空间分布上具有明显的空间相似性。土壤NO3^- -N、P、K含量分别与种菜历史及肥料用量（N、P2O5和K2O）之间均呈极显著的正相关。     

Soil management for raising crop water productivity in rainfed production systems in Lao PDR

This study investigated the impacts of organic- and clay-based soil amendments, and their combinations on crop water productivity (CWP) using maize as a test crop. On-station field trials were established over two consecutive years at the Naphok and Veunkham sites in Laos. At each site, 10 treatments were applied in a randomized complete block design with three replications. The treatments were control, rice husk biochar (10 t ha^?1), bentonite clay (10 t ha^?1), compost (4 t ha^?1), clay-manure compost (10 t ha^?1), rice husk biochar compost (10 t ha^?1), bentonite clay + biochar, bentonite-clay + compost, biochar + compost, and bentonite clay + biochar + compost. All treatments were applied in 2011. Significant (p < 0.05) treatment effects in CWP and growing period evapotranspiration were determined. At Naphok, differences between the amended and control plots in CWP varied between 0.1 and 0.6 kg m^?3 in 2011 and from 0.1 to 0.4 kg m^?3 in 2012, whereas differences at Veunkham varied between 0.3 and 1.0 kg m^?3 in 2011 and from 0.05 to 0.29 kg m^?3 in 2012. At both sites, CWP in 2012 was significantly lower than 2011. Our results illustrate that organic- and clay-based soil amendments improve CWP, indicating that soil-based interventions could be suitable options for improving agricultural productivity.     

Climate change in Asia: A review of the vulnerability and adaptation of crop production

A number of studies have provided quantitative assessments of the potential climate change impacts on crop production in Asia. Estimates take into account (a) uncertainty in the level of climate change expected, using a range of climate change scenarios; (b) physiological effects of carbon dioxide on the crops; and (c) different adaptive responses. In all cases, the effects of climate change induced by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide depended on the counteracting effects among higher daily evapotranspiration rates, shortening of crop growth duration, and changes in precipitation patterns, as well as the effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and water-use efficiency. Although results varied depending on the geographical locations of the regions tested, the production of rice (the main food crop in the region) generally did not benefit from climate change. In South and Southeast Asia, there is concern about how climate change may affect El Niño/Southern Oscillation events, since these play a key role in determining agricultural production. Furthermore, problems arising from variability of water availability and soil degradation are currently major challenges to agriculture in the region. These problems may be exacerbated in the future if global climate change projections are realized. Many studies have considered strategies for improving agricultural management, based on the optimization of crop management decisions. Climate change analyses could be further strengthened by economic studies that integrate the potential use of natural resources across sectors.     

中国应抓住气候变化的战略机遇期

气候变化是世界关注的热点问题,中国是世界人口和农业大国,如何科学应对气候变化,趋利避害,把握重要机遇期,是关系中国复兴的重大课题。本文从地质时期气候变化、历史时期气候变化和近代气候变化3个方面,分析说明了气候变化取决于自然和人类活动状况,气候变化有冷暖交替周期,目前处于第四纪冰期的小暖期,进一步提出了要从太阳系、大气圈、岩石圈、水圈和生物圈不同层次的相互影响,来研究气候变化的思路。根据中国经济社会和农业发展与气候变化历史过程对比分析,中国粮食连续九连增,特别是东北粮食基地生产能力的快速提高,明显受益于气候变暖。提出了中国应抓住气候变化中的战略机遇期。目前我国粮食供需总体上仍处于紧平衡状态,\"靠天吃饭\"还没有根本改变,我国粮食呈北粮南运,北方又是干旱缺水和受气候变化影响敏感的地区,建议国家有关部门立项开展我国北方气候变化与水资源安全和粮食安全研究,以为保障我国粮食安全提供理论依据和技术支撑。     

Spatial and interspecific variability in phenological responses to warming temperatures

A comprehensive understanding of species phenological responses to global warming will require observations that are both long-term and spatially extensive. Here we present an analysis of the spring phenological response to climate variation of twelve taxa: six plants, three birds, a frog, and two insects. Phenology was monitored using standardized protocols at 176 meteorological stations in Japan and South Korea from 1953 to 2005, and in some cases even longer. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to examine the complex interactions of temperature, site effects, and latitude on phenology. Results show species-specific variation in the magnitude and even in the direction of their responses to increasing temperature, which also differ from site-to-site. At most sites the differences in phenology among species are forecast to become greater with warmer temperatures. Our results challenge the assertion that trends in one geographic region can be extrapolated to others, and emphasize the idiosyncratic nature of the species response to global warming. Field studies are needed to determine how these patterns of variation in species response to climate change affect species interactions and the ability to persist in a changing climate.     

气候变化对云南气候生产潜力的影响

利用1961-2009年云南省117个台站年平均气温、降水量资料和Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算分析云南省气候生产潜力(TSPV)的分布及年际变化特征,并模拟了未来气候变化情景下气候生产潜力的变化。结果表明:云南多年平均TSPV值为1439.2g.m-2.a-1,滇西北和滇东北最低,滇西南和滇东南最高;近49a云南全省以及各站的平均TSPV变化的年际变化不显著;云南TSPV利用率较低,实际粮食产量平均只占气候生产潜力的19%。在云南气温明显上升、降水略减少、年际波动大的气候变化趋势背景下,TSPV与降水的相关系数(P0.01)大于气温,说明降水是当地TSPV的主要限制因素;敏感性分析显示,未来如果出现"暖湿型"气候对作物生长最为有利,出现"冷干型"对作物生长最为不利。而趋势分析表明,未来云南易出现"暖干型"气候,这不利于当地的农业生产。     

Buffering capacity of cashew soils in South Eastern Tanzania

Abstract. Cashew soils of South Eastern Tanzania become acidified due to sulphur used for controlling powdery mildew disease ( Oidium anacardii Noack). The buffering capacity of surface and subsurface horizons of 35 soil profiles of major cashew growing areas –- the Makonde plateau, its piedmont and inland plains –- was studied. The buffering capacity of surface and subsurface horizons was strongly correlated with clay content and weakly with organic carbon content. In addition, it was only weakly correlated with total exchangeable bases and available P of the surface horizon, but strongly with soil pH, base saturation and cation exchange capacity of the clay fraction of the subsurface horizon. Highly weathered sandy soils, dominant on the Makonde plateau and common on the Piedmont, had the lowest buffering capacity. Soils from the inland plains had better buffering capacities as they are generally more clayey or are less weathered. The risk of severe acidification and of a decline in productivity of cashew and of food crops is highest on the Makonde plateau. Further development and dissemination of methods which can reduce the use of sulphur are required.     

Changes in variability of soil moisture alter microbial community C and N resource use

Grassland ecosystems contain ∼12% of global soil organic carbon (C) stocks and are located in regions where global climate change will likely alter the timing and size of precipitation events, increasing soil moisture variability. In response to increased soil moisture variability and other forms of stress, microorganisms can induce ecosystem-scale alterations in C and N cycling processes through alterations in their function. We explored the influence of physiological stress on microbial communities by manipulating moisture variability in soils from four grassland sites in the Great Plains, representing a precipitation gradient of 485-1003 mm y⁻¹. Keeping water totals constant, we manipulated the frequency and size of water additions and dry down periods in these soils by applying water in two different, two-week long wetting-drying cycles in a 72-day laboratory incubation. To assess the effects of the treatments on microbial community function, we measured C mineralization, N dynamics, extracellular enzyme activities (EEA) and a proxy for substrate use efficiency. In soils from all four sites undergoing a long interval (LI) treatment for which added water was applied once at the beginning of each two-week cycle, 1.4-2.0 times more C was mineralized compared to soils undergoing a short interval (SI) treatment, for which four wetting events were evenly distributed over each two-week cycle. A proxy for carbon use efficiency (CUE) suggests declines in this parameter with the greater soil moisture stress imposed in LI soils from all four different native soil moisture regimes. A decline in CUE in LI soils may have been related to an increased effort by microbes to obtain N-rich organic substrates for use as protection against osmotic shock, consistent with EEA data. These results contrast with similar in situ studies of response to increased soil moisture variability and may indicate divergent autotrophic vs. heterotrophic responses to increased moisture variability. Increases in microbial N demand and decreases in microbial CUE with increased moisture variability observed in this study, regardless of the soils’ site of origin, imply that these systems may experience enhanced heterotrophic CO₂ release and declines in plant-available N with climate change. This has particularly important implications for C budgets in these grasslands when coupled with the declines in net primary productivity reported in other studies as a result of increases in precipitation variability across the region.     

影响湛江甘蔗产量与糖分的气候因子变化特征

对影响湛江甘蔗产量和糖分的气候因子近55 a来的趋势性、阶段性和周期性进行分析。结果表明：影响甘蔗产量的气候因子中,3-10月的积温增加趋势显著;3-10月的积温和降水量有显著的阶段性;3-10月的积温、降水量、日照时数和大风次数都有显著的振荡周期,总日照时数有11 a、3-4 a的振荡周期,大风有5-6 a、7-8 a的振荡周期。影响甘蔗糖分的气候因子中,10-11月的平均最低气温增加趋势比较显著,有显著的周期性和阶段性;11月-次年2月的降水量有显著的阶段性和2-3 a的振荡周期。     

Importance, cause and effect of bushmeat hunting in the Udzungwa Mountains, Tanzania: Implications for community based wildlife management

Community Based Wildlife Management (CBWM) has been suggested as a conservation strategy in response to bushmeat hunting in the Udzungwa Mountains within the Eastern Afromontane biodiversity hotspot. The feasibility of CBWM based on meat cropping was therefore evaluated in New Dabaga/Ulangambi Forest Reserve (NDUFR). Comparison of relative wildlife densities with West Kilombero Scarp Forest Reserve, which is subject to only low hunting pressure, indicate that most relevant populations are severely depleted (Cephalophus monticola, C. harveyi and C. spadix, Potamochoerus larvatus) and hence that sustainable harvesting currently is not possible in NDUFR. Records of catch from hunters in the villages surrounding NDUFR indicate that bushmeat is of relatively low importance in terms of use and contribution to protein intake. Proximity to NDUFR and secondarily population size in the different villages is positively correlated with hunting intensity and depletion of wildlife. Comparisons between hunters and non-hunters in terms of wealth measures show that hunting is linked to poverty and low protein intake. An estimation of maximum sustainable harvest in NDUFR reveals that CBWM only has limited capacity to reduce these causes of hunting, maintain the communities’ interest and offset the opportunity costs of conservation. Results of this study suggest that conservation efforts in NDUFR should focus on protecting wildlife against exploitation instead of encouraging use and dependence through CBWM. Supporting efforts should attempt to facilitate a complete shift to domestic sources of meat, by increasing the number of domestic animals in the poorest part of the population.     

Climatic controls and ecosystem responses drive the inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem exchange of an alpine meadow

Seven years of continuous eddy covariance measurements at an alpine meadow were used to investigate the impacts of climate drivers and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of the net ecosystem exchange (NEE). The annual cumulative value of NEE was positive (source) in 2003, 2005 and 2009 (50, 15 and 112 g m⁻² respectively) and negative (sink) in 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2008 (29, 75, 110 and 28 g m⁻² respectively). The IAV of carbon dioxide fluxes builds up in two phenological phases: the onset of the growing season (triggered by snow melting) and the canopy re-growth after mowing. Respiratory fluxes during the non-growing season were observed to increase IAV, while growing season uptake dampened it. A novel approach was applied to factor out the two main sources of IAV: climate drivers’ variability and changes in the ecosystem responses to climate. Annual values of carbon dioxide fluxes were calculated assuming (a) variable climate and variable ecosystem response among years, (b) variable climate and constant ecosystem response and (c) constant climate and variable ecosystem response. The analysis of flux variances calculated under these three assumptions indicates the occurrence of an important negative feedback between climate and ecosystem responses. Due to this feedback, the observed IAV of NEE is lower than one would expect for a given climate variability, because of the counteracting changes in ecosystem responses. This alpine meadow therefore demonstrates the ability to acclimatise and to limit the IAV of carbon fluxes induced by climate variability.     

农业气候变化脆弱性评估研究进展

气候脆弱性问题是气候变化影响研究的重要内容，农业的气候变化脆弱性是国内外关注和研究的关键性问题。本文综述了脆弱性和农业对气候变化脆弱性的概念以及研究进展，并探讨了今后农业脆弱性研究的重点和难点问题。     

Political ecology of wildlife conservation in the Mt. Meru area of Northeast Tanzania

The wildlife conservation problems in Tanzania are examined from a political ecology perspective. The analysis is historical, exploring the establishment of national parks under British colonial rule and the tightening of state control over access to resources at the expense of customary rights. Examples are presented from the Mt. Meru area of north-eastern Tanzania. During the colonial period, the formal political debate over land and resource rights was conducted without the participation of African peasants. After independence the state continued to assert control over resource access unilaterally. As Meru peasants have effectively been shut out of the formal political process, their only recourse for defending the loss of access to natural resources is everyday forms of resistance, including de facto alliances with commercial poachers and ‘foot dragging’ in regards to compliance with conservation laws. Consequently there is little local support for current wildlife conservation policies on Mt. Meru and wildlife populations have declined in the 30 years since Arusha National Park was established there.     

气候变暖对河北省冬小麦产量的影响

根据河北省多年冬小麦产量和冬麦区气候资料,采用改进的气候产量分离方法,分析气候变暖对小麦产量的影响。结果发现：河北省冬麦区冬季气温呈上升趋势,平均每10a上升0．5℃,春季气温也是升高的,但不如冬季升温明显,平均每10a上升0．3℃;冬小麦产量与冬季、春季降水量相关不明显,而与冬季、春季气温存在显著的正相关关系。河北省冬小麦实际单产呈逐年增加趋势,每10a约增加1125kg／hm^2;而气候产量与冬小麦实际单产变化明显不同,随着气候变暖,气候产量波动性逐年增大,近年气候产量波动幅度达到±300kg／hm^2.从总体看,随着气候变暖,气候产量呈下降趋势,平均每10a减少52．7kg／hm^2。气温造成小麦产量波动幅度一般在±10％之间,但随着小麦实际单产逐年提高,气候变暖对小麦单产所造成的损失越来越大。     

阿里地区气候资源与农业生产

简要阐述了西藏阿里地区光、温、水等气候资源的特点，分布规律以及农业生产的关系，并针对阿里地区的气候特点提出了农业生产的方向。     

Soil water and crop production in Botswana

Abstract. This paper draws on the results of a five-year project on the agronomy, crop physiology and soil physics of the cropping of sorghum and subsidiary crops at several sites in Botswana. The low and erratic yields usually obtained stem largely from the low and erratic rainfall, the harsh physical properties of the soils and the unfavourable interactions between these factors. Deep ploughing is essential to allow root penetration and water retrieval from depth in soils of high bulk density; sorghum plant densities must be kept moderately low, at the price of increased surface evaporation, to ensure that plants are big enough to optimize harvest index; and intercropping with cowpeas should be avoided, since it decreases sorghum yield stability with little appreciable compensation. One essential for a more stable, higher-yielding cropping system is the year-round management of the soil as a water storage medium. This will require the alternation of short periods of bare fallow with a sequence of crops with short and long growth cycles.