A simulated surveillance program for bovine paratuberculosis in dairy herds in Norway

Monte Carlo simulation models were used to evaluate the feasibility and potential results of a proposed national survey of the prevalence of bovine paratuberculosis (PTB) in dairy herds in Norway. The expected herd prevalence was assumed to be 0.2% in the simulations. The low sensitivity of the ELISA test, the assumed low herd prevalence, the typical low within-herd prevalence of PTB and the small herd sizes all present problems in detection of the disease. Simulations with 500, 1000, 2500 and 6000 herds tested were done. Our results suggest that a national survey would not be feasible at present, due to the low probability of detecting infected herds and because of the high number of false-positive reactions that would be expected to occur.     

Evaluation of test-strategies for estimating probability of low prevalence of paratuberculosis in Danish dairy herds

Paratuberculosis is a chronic infection affecting cattle and other ruminants. In the dairy industry, losses due to paratuberculosis can be substantial in infected herds and several countries have implemented national programmes based on herd-classification to manage the disease. The aim of this study was to develop a method to estimate the probability of low within-herd prevalence of paratuberculosis for Danish dairy herds. A stochastic simulation model was developed using the R^® programming environment. Features of this model included: use of age-specific estimates of test-sensitivity and specificity; use of a distribution of observed values (rather than a fixed, low value) for design prevalence; and estimates of the probability of low prevalence (Pr_Low) based on a specific number of test-positive animals, rather than for a result less than or equal to a specified cut-point number of reactors.

Using this model, five herd-testing strategies were evaluated: (1) milk-ELISA on all lactating cows; (2) milk-ELISA on lactating cows ≤4 years old; (3) milk-ELISA on lactating cows >4 years old; (4) faecal culture on all lactating cows; and (5) milk-ELISA plus faecal culture in series on all lactating cows.

The five testing strategies were evaluated using observed milk-ELISA results from 19 Danish dairy herds as well as for simulated results from the same herds assuming that they were uninfected.

Whole-herd milk-ELISA was the preferred strategy, and considered the most cost-effective strategy of the five alternatives. The five strategies were all efficient in detecting infection, i.e. estimating a low Pr_Low in infected herds, however, Pr_Low estimates for milk-ELISA on age-cohorts were too low in simulated uninfected herds and the strategies involving faecal culture were too expensive to be of practical interest. For simulated uninfected herds, whole-herd milk-ELISA resulted in median Pr_Low values >0.9 for most herds, depending on herd size and age-structure. None of the strategies provided enough power to establish a high Pr_Low in smaller herds, or herds with a younger age-structure. Despite this, it appears as if the method is a useful approach for herd-classification for most herds in the Danish dairy industry.     

Evaluation of Ziehl–Neelsen stained faecal smear and ELISA as tools for surveillance of clinical paratuberculosis in cattle in the Netherlands

Testing cattle suspected of clinical paratuberculosis is an important element of surveillance of paratuberculosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic-test characteristics of microscopic examination of Ziehl–Neelsen stained faecal smears for acid-fast Mycobacteria (ZN-test) and serum-ELISA in cattle suspected of clinical paratuberculosis in the Netherlands.Results of all samples submitted for ZN-test and serum-ELISA between April 2003 and April 2006 to our laboratory were retrieved. Results from cattle for which both tests were performed were analysed using two Bayesian latent-class models for evaluation of diagnostic tests in two populations without a gold standard, assuming (a) conditional independence of tests, or (b) conditional dependence of tests in both infected and non-infected cattle. Sampled cattle were divided into two populations in different ways using four known risk factors for clinical paratuberculosis: region, soil type, clinical signs, and age.For 892 cattle suspected of clinical paratuberculosis, both ZN-test and serum-ELISA results were retrieved: 250 ZN-positive and ELISA-positive, 12 ZN-positive and ELISA-negative, 260 ZN-negative and ELISA-positive, and 370 ZN-negative and ELISA-negative cattle.With priors based on the available literature, the posterior estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the ELISA were always higher than those of the ZN-test. Furthermore, lower limits of the 95% credibility intervals of the posterior positive predictive values of the ELISA were ≥99.7%, and of the negative predictive values of the ELISA ≥56.4%.We conclude that the ELISA is preferred to the ZN-test to confirm the presumptive diagnosis of clinical paratuberculosis in the Netherlands. Little diagnostic information can be gained by performing the ZN-test in addition to the ELISA.     

Effectiveness of movement-prevention regulations to reduce the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in The Netherlands

After the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in 2001 the Dutch government implemented movement-prevention regulations to reduce the number of contacts between farms and consequently the risk of spread of highly contagious animal infections in the future. We studied the efficacy of these regulations by comparing registered cattle-movement data from 2000 to those from 2002. We also used the spatial and stochastic simulation model InterFMD to evaluate the consequences of the observed alterations in cattle-contact structure on the spread and control of a FMD epidemic.

There was a significant decrease in the number of cattle movements “for live use”, no difference in the number of group movements “for live use” and a distinct change in the overall contact structure. The most important structure changes were a decrease in the number of group movements from dairy farms to cattle-collection centres (−44%), and an increase in the number of group movements from dairy farms to beef farms (111%).

Our simulations demonstrated that the implemented regulations result in a concentration of the FMD-affected area and therefore in a reduction in size of the epidemics. Based on the intended Dutch strategy to control future FMD outbreaks, the decrease in extreme epidemics (95th percentiles) went from 31 infected farms in an epidemic-length of 65 days to 8 infected farms in an epidemic-length of 53 days in sparsely populated areas. In densely populated areas this decrease went from 135 infected farms to 103, while the duration reduced from 88 days to 81.     

Quantification of the transmission of classical swine fever virus between herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this study, we describe a method to quantify the transmission of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) between herds from data collected during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. From the contacts between infected herds and the serological findings shortly before depopulation, we estimated the week of virus introduction and the length of the period over which the herd emitted virus for each CSFV-infected herd. From these data, we estimated the infection-rate parameter β (the average number of herds infected by one infectious herd during one week) and the herd reproduction ratio, R_h (the average total number of secondary outbreaks caused by one infectious herd, i.e. in its entire infectious period), using a SIR-model for different sets of CSF control measures. When R_h > 1, an epidemic continues to grow. On the other hand, when R_h < 1 an epidemic will fade out.

During the phase before the first outbreak was diagnosed and no specific measures had been implemented, β was estimated at 1.09 and R_h at 6.8. In the subsequent phase infected herds were depopulated, movement restrictions were implemented, infected herds were traced forward and backward and the herds in the protection and surveillance zones were clinically inspected by the veterinary authorities (regional screening). This set of measures significantly reduced β to 0.38. However, R_h was 1.3 and thus still >1. Consequently, the number of outbreaks continued to grow. After a number of additional measures were implemented, the value of R_h was reduced to 0.5 and the epidemic came to an end. These measures included pre-emptive slaughter of herds that had been in contact with infected herds or were located near an infected herd, increased hygienic procedures, replacement of transports of pigs for welfare reasons by killing of young piglets and a breeding ban, and regional screening for CSF-infected herds by local veterinary practitioners.