Analysis of Risk Factors of Project Cost Base on the Monte-Carlo Simulation

This paper combined the method of probability,mathematical statistics,and technology of computer with theory of Project cost risk management,based on the theory of initiative control and took the Crystal Ball as an assistant tool to analyze the risk of cost management in a certain project,verify the actual effect of the model when it is used to the practice,give some suggestions to evade risk in a certain degree and mend the existent decision model to improve the efficiency and precision of analysis of cost management risk.     

A Dynamic Grey Fuzzy Evaluation Method for Financing Risk in Freeway Project

There are many risks that influence freeway project financing and the influence of these risks differ by project stage. However, it is impossible to analyze the total risk of project financing objectively and accurately merely using the fuzzy or grey evaluation methods. These methods cannot reflect the dynamic characteristics of financing risks during freeway project construction. A dynamically grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was established and used to evaluate the financing risks of a freeway project. The results indicate that this method can not only make full use of the rich experience of the experts, but also reduce the influence of subjective factors. In addition, this method can reflect the dynamic characteristics of the financing risks during freeway project construction. Investors therefore can pertinently prevent and control financing risks based on the results of the evaluation of financing risks in every stage of the project. A demonstration shows that the method is suitable for comprehensive evaluation of financing risks of infrastructure projects such as freeways.     

A Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Contract Risk of BOT Project

Concerning the existent and latent risk in building,operating and transfering of BOT project, the model of BOT risk is advanced in AHP way, and on the basis of sinqle target and the importance of the weiqht of each index affecting,the policy in the risk of the BOT project is made by the use of the method.     

Conditional Value-at-Risk and Its Use in Credit Risk Measurement of Banks

Credit risk, the major risk of bank, is more and more intense during the period of economic restructuring in China. In view of the flaw of present risk measurement system, Conditional Value-at-Risk is used for the credit risk measurement which is better than Value-at-Risk. This paper creates the model ,while gives the method and procedure for solving it. So CVaRof credit combination is produced, which is just the early warning value of credit risk. At last, it is concluded that the CVaRrisk measurement is too difficult to use widely at present in china, then some advice is provided.     

Study on Application of Value - at - Risk to the Risk Evaluation of Construction Project Bidding

The value-at-risk(VaR) model is a statistical model to estimate and control financial risk,and used to measure the most probable loss on the next deal stage of financial asset portfolio.Based on the principle of the value-at-risk,in this paper the value-at-risk is to be applied to the risk evaluation of construction project.Assuming the sub-project prices abide by the BQ model are random variable which conform to normal distribution,this paper has built up the portfolio of project according to biding and quoted price of construction project,and adopted the variance-covariance method to measure the value-at-risk of the biding and quoted price in order to provide a feasible risk analysis tool for the evaluation of construction project bidding.     

A Simulative Method of Investment Decision in Real Estate Development

This paper has simulated major risk factors and estimation indexes which influence on project investment in real estate development. It confirms the scope of risk factors by reaching it's reliability, The problems are resolved in obtaining values of factors and it's probabilistic distributing;the limitation is over come in estimating the income of investment by a point-estimation.An impersonal and reliable method of investment decision is provided in real estate development, and the result is ideal in practive test.     

Correlation and Arithmetic of Operational Risk Measurement Basing on Loss Distribution Approach

Based on the principles of operational risk measurement provided by Basel II,the paper discusses the problem of operational risk correlations among different business lines / risk types.The correlation coefficients between the aggregate losses among different business lines / risk types are calculated.Copula arithmetic is put forward to compute correlation coefficients matrix of aggregate losses.Besides,the result is used to calculate the capital requirement of operational risk.     

An Economic Explanation of the Engineering Quality Risk and Risk Prevention

Each party in engineering project faces different quality risk in different stage,and each adopts different management decision against quality risk.Firstly,from the new classic economics angle,an economic explanation to the management decision against engineering quality risk according to the different benefits for contractor and owner.The owner and contractor of a construction project,the government and projection legal person find their economic ties in an asymmetric information supply,or in an imperfectly assigned contract.The rules and characteristics of entrust-agency relation are analyzed from the economics and information economics angle,an economic explanation of engineering quality risk is given according to entrust-agency relation.The measures of controlling quality risk have been put forward from the angle of the economics.     

天水市雹灾对粮食作物生产影响的风险评价

为了有效防御冰雹对粮食作物的危害,根据天水市7县（区）气象站1971-2010年冰雹观测资料及2010年各县（区）粮食作物播种面积、农业人口、人均GDP值及防雹高炮数量,建立了天水市雹灾对粮食作物生产影响风险评价模式,并对冰雹及雹灾风险度的时空分布进行分析。结果表明,天水市冰雹主要发生在4-10月,集中发生在5-6月。空间分布为北多南少。风险度的空间分布与冰雹的发生次数分布基本一致。在冰雹主要发生月份,以5、7、9月风险度较高,6、8月风险度较低。各县（区）不同时段雹灾发生的风险度差异较大,应根据风险度的高低的时空分布,制定防雹措施,科学安排防雹工作。     

合作社风险影响与应对程度认知研究

通过青海马铃薯主产区合作社的实地调查,对不确定环境下,合作社可能面临的16项风险因素进行实证分析。重点对合作社风险影响程度与应对程度的认知进行研究,其中自然灾害风险对合作社的影响程度最高,均值达7.47;生产资料供给不确定性、国家与政府政策变动、农产品价格波动以及农产品质量安全等风险的影响程度均较高,均值分别为6.67、6.60、6.53、6.27。银行贷款利率变动风险的应对程度最低,均值为3;自然灾害、国家政府政策变动、农产品价格波动等风险的应对程度也较低,均值分别为3.07、3.30、5.33。自然灾害风险、国家与政府政策变动风险、农产品价格波动风险影响程度高、应对程度低,这3项风险是合作社面临的主要风险因素。利用矩阵分析4类风险,找出对合作社影响程度高、应对程度低的关键风险因素,定位合作社风险应对的薄弱环节：政策风险和生产风险的影响程度高、应对程度低;如果不考虑政府政策风险与自然风险等不可抗风险,市场风险的影响程度较高、应对程度较低。     

Application of Risk Analysis to the Financial Evaluation of Construction Projects

Every sort of financial indexes of the construction project is a value occurred in future. It has a random character, so the estimation of these indexes in early stage is surely a matter of risk. In practice, the investors often choose a construction project only by simple estimation rather by deep financial evaluation and risk analysis. In this paper, taking the project NPV as an example and applying risk analysis to its estimation, the authors develop a totally new economic evaluation method for construction projects.     

土地整治重大项目社会稳定风险评估初探

构建土地整治重大项目社会稳定风险评估机制,对规范土地整治重大项目建设和土地整治相关管理具有重要的现实意义。本文立足重大项目的全生命周期管理要求,综合分析了土地整治重大项目社会稳定风险的内涵,提出了相应的风险评估过程,并采用PSR模型建立了风险评估体系。研究认为：（1）重大项目的社会稳定风险在项目的立项论证、建设实施和管护运营等阶段均能以不同形式存在,风险评估应根据项目各管理阶段的重点任务及特征,系统分析土地整治过程中可能存在的各类风险因素;（2）风险评估过程应包含风险调查、风险识别、风险评价及风险化解四个程序;（3）基于PSR模型的风险评估体系可反映出土地整治社会稳定风险的产生、传导、作用和控制过程,可为重大项目风险评估指标的选取提供逻辑框架。     

Application of Flow Analysis to Risk Management of Land Investment

Combined with the development flow of real estate project,firstly a flow analysis is put forward for land investment risk identification of real estate projects,then by method of list analysis and method of expectancy computing to determine the risk level and the gain and loss of expectancy of land investment.Based on the relation and flow chart of land investment risk,the risk intensity of land investment is computed,in order to achieve an objective,effective and scientific dynamic management of land investment risk.     

Application of Simulation Method on the Financial Evaluation of Construction Projects

In order to provide a reliable foundation for project decision, some sorts of financial indexes of the project, such as NPV, IRR etc, should be accurately estimated out in the earlier stage. However, these indexes appear in the future randomly, and their estimation in the earlier stage is at risk. In this paper, taking the project's NPV as example and applying simulation method to its estimation, the authors developed a comparatively objective evaluation method of construction projects. Furthermore, the outcome of the simulation method is tested by comparing it with the result of another evaluation method.     

Analysis of project financing risk distribution Based on Investor

By analyzing the kinds of risk and participants in project financing in ject financing risk distribution through the game theory analysis is studied. The this paper, the optimal principle of proauthors use the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to establish the participants risk matrix, then, solve the matrix through Hungarian Algorithm according to the principle of risk effective distribution. After optimization,the best one who should undertake the risk will be decided.     

现代桥梁雷击灾害风险研究

开展雷击灾害风险评估,选取最合适的雷击灾害防御方案,是防止和减少因雷击桥梁产生灾害损失的重要手段,也是进行科学防雷的重要前提,借助安徽省气象局ADTD型闪电定位系统监测的2006—2013年逐日闪电数据,应用IEC 62305规范以及GB/T 21714国家标准,对安徽省马鞍山市长江大桥进行雷击灾害风险研究。结果表明：人身伤亡损失风险主要由直接雷击大桥导致的接触、跨步电压和物理损害引起;经济损失风险主要由直接雷击大桥导致的物理损害以及直接雷击和邻近雷击导致的大桥内部系统故障引起;比较大桥在无LPS、LPSⅢ和LPSⅡ三种设定方案下雷击灾害风险值,确定针对马鞍山长江大桥最优化的雷击防御方案二来降低人身伤亡损失风险和经济损失风险值。该风险评估部分成果在马鞍山长江大桥建设中得到实际应用,项目达到防雷要求并暂未出现雷击灾害事故。     

Study of Transform between Qualitative Analysis and Quantitative Analysis in Lighting Engineering

In order to establish the relationship between subjective sense and physical measurement in lighting engineering, the qualitative and quantitative analyses are connected through generalized Weber - Fechner Law. For practical application problems of lighting engineering, a proximate function of subjective sense deduced from physical measurement is brought forward. The experiment in advertising lighting shows that the result of this function is more exact and more closely to the practice than others. Using this proximate function, the illumination level, corresponding to given satisfaction level, can be found. In other words, the physical measurement corresponding to given subjective sense can be evaluated by using this proximate function, accordingly the design of lighting project can be directed reasonably.     

Contracts of risk sharing of the enterprise, the employee and the dealer

The output of the enterprise changes with the change of natural states, therefore it brings relatively great risk to enterprise. The enterprise hopes to reduce the same kind of risk through more contracts than one kind of contract of risk sharing. This paper presents a new method to disperse the same kind of risk in two kinds of ways. Basing on principal-agent theory, through the optimum contract of risk sharing, the Pareto-optimum solving is solved-the optimum contract of risk sharing. The employee shares some risks through the optimum contract of risk sharing between the enterprise and the employee-when the output is high, the employee's income increases; when the output is low, the income decreases. In order to reduce the risk of the enterprise further, the dealer also shares the risk. To maximize the utility of the enterprise, the Pareto optimum solving is given-another optimum contract of risk. The dealer offers following contract of risk sharing to the enterprise-when the output is high, the dealer receives the repayment; when the output is low, the enterprise is compensated. The enterprise, the employee and the dealer share the risk together, thus the risk of the enterprise is reduced to relatively great degree.     

Risk Identification and Risk Assessment in Engineering Variation of Construction Project

This paper analyses the kinds of risk factors in engineering variation of construction project. Consists of tecthhon risk, economy risk, policy and low risk, contract candition risk and character risk. It puts forward the risk assessment index system and sets up the risk comprehensive assessment model by using the theory of fuzzy mathematics.     

Financial Risk Measurement: CVaR

The precise measurement to risks is principal for the effective risk management,both major in theory and practice.Value-at-Risk,a widely accepted risk measure,has some deadly deficiencies.The authors introduce a new risk measure,Conditional-Value-at-Risk,which comes into being based on the VaR measure. They introduce CVaR's definition and the risk-measuring model on it and also its applications in portfolio management,comparatively with VaR measure.