基于价格参考效应的生鲜电商供应链协调策略研究

考虑到生鲜电商平台销售过程中价格参考效应对消费者需求的影响,构建了价格参考效应影响下的消费者需求函数,研究由一个生鲜供应商和一个生鲜电商组成的生鲜电商供应链的协调问题。根据模型比较分散式决策与集中式决策下产品的最优定价、生鲜电商供应链成员的收益等,发现合作能够提高双方的利润,因此构建收益共享契约模型。结果表明,存在价格参考效应的情况下,生鲜产品的批发价格、契约参数、参考价格对于需求量的敏感程度对于生鲜电商最优定价、供应链成员收益有着不同程度的影响,同时契约参数的确定取决于生鲜电商、生鲜供应商在供应链的议价能力。     

Game Analysis of Vertical Cooperative Advertising with Price Discount

This paper studies the problem of cooperative advertising of two-echelon supply chain when the manufacturer offers a price deduction to consumers. And the equilibrium outcomes in a two-stage game and a coordinated co-op game are discussed and compared respectively. The results demonstrate that, under a certain condition, the retailer will increase local advertising effort if the manufacturer offers more price discount to customers directly. For any given price discount, the total profit for the supply chain with cooperative scheme is always higher than that with the non-cooperative scheme, and we find that the price discount will only be suitable for the merchandise with price sensitive demand. Then the Nash bargaining model is utilized to determine the allocation of the entire system profit gain. Finally, a numerical example is given to confirm the above conclusion.     

Quality Contingent Pricing in Used Automobile Market

The problem concerning information asymmetry and quality uncertainty in the used automobile market of China has not been settled in a better way for years. Therefore, how to convey the signal of quality to the customers is of great value for used automobile dealers. On the basis of defining the probability of quality evaluation and for the purpose of achieving per expected revenue maximization, this paper builds a model of quality - contingent pricing and thus makes the optimal pricing and discount policy. In addition, this paper displays directly, through data analysis, the impact of the used automobiles pricing policy on the enterprise profits under the context of information asymmetry.     

集体林地使用权流转收益的理论与实证研究——以福建省邵武市为例

林地使用权流转收益是否合理,关系到流转权益各方的切身利益与林权制度改革配套措施建设成效。借助相关基础数据与理论模型,分析2000—2011年度福建邵武市不同立地质量的林地使用权理论流转收益,认为木材价格的不断上涨及政府的政策性税改让利是理论流转收益不断攀升的主要原因。研究发现,闽政文[2005]50号及南委[2007]37号文件规定的林地使用权价格明显低于林地理论流转收益,林农及基层经济组织并不能共享土地经营权流转剩余收益;延平区政府的林地定价在一定程度上可以作为邵武市林地流转的价格依据及政府制定流转政策的价格参照。创新林地使用权流转价格形成机制是合理调配权益各方利益争端,实现利润共享的必然选择。     

Marginal Return Policy for Perishable Products

Considering perishable products usually have little salvage,a return policy-marginal return policy is proposad.This policy reveals the manufacturer's different attitudes toward the amount of the returned products.By applying the marginal return policy,the decisions of the manufacturer (wholesale price and return price) and decisions of the retailer(sales price and order quantity) are analyzed.Under marginal return policy,both profits of the manufacturer and retailer increase,which lead the increase of system's profit directly.At the same time,numerical experiments show that,contrast to the usual return policy,the marginal return policy could reduce the manufacturer's risks caused by the demand uncertainty.     

A New Pricing Contract of EPC General Contract： The Application of Target Contract

Due to very large scale of general contract projects, the scope of projects is always uncertain when the contractor bids and the difference between the planned and actual volumes of projects is very large. If a lump sum contract is used to establish the price, contractors thus must take high risks. The contract price is always high, and both owners and contractors show unwillingness to optimize technology under lump sum contract conditions. Owners are inclined to extend the norm and scope of projects. Such situations may result in additional costs. As a new pricing contract, a target contract fits the situation when project scope is not fully defined or the forecasting risks are high. Such a contract can bring both sides enthusiasm for technology optimization and substantially reduces project cost. Therefore, a target contract is suitable for EPC general contract pricing.     

Dynamic Analysis on Adjustment of Price for Disequilibrium Market

Under the condition of market economy, the price of goods changes with internal rule and relation of supply and demand in the micro-market. Because of complexity of real economic system, the fact that supply is not all equal to demand every time needs use the disequilibirium analysis which nears well reality instead of traditional equilibirium analysis. In the state of disequilibirium market, according to the adjustment function for market and under synthesizing two basic adjustment equations of price, the stability of price for disequilibrium system has been studied based on the equations of supply and demand and using the adaptive expectation mode to forecast price .These conditions of stability of the system have also been given, which benefit to study structure and capability so as to search for dynamic law for the economic system .     

Architecture of Networked Manufacturing Based on Supply Chain

The combinationof networked manufacturing and supply chain can integrate the design resource, intelligenceresource and manufacturing resource more efficaciously. Based on the compareand analysisof characteristics of the networked manufacturing and supply chain, the mode of networked manufacturing based on supply chain is brought forward, it combines and integrates supply chain and networked manufacturing to attain the effects of the complementarityof the dominanceof each other, and makes the reality of networked manufacturing more convenience, shortcutand efficiency. Based on the solution, the architecture and an operation mode of networked manufacturing based on supply chain are put forward. Finally, the applicationof networked manufacturing based on supply chain to ceramics industry is studied. Through the implementof the networked manufacturing which is based on the Supply chain dynamic allianceof ceramics industry, the process of from gaining demand information to putting products in the market is finished.     

Two Formulas of Debt Valuation About risky Enterprise with Contingent Claims Analysis and Comparison

Risky debt valuation differs greatly from that of no risk so that under uncertainty of income flower and discount rate, usually we can not get a kind of resonlution to express the type. With no account of the discount rate, we are absorbed in property value influence under uncertainty. As generalizing the theory of option pricing, contingent claims analysis can handel debt valuation, and sometime give closed form expressions.Two formula obtained by Merton and Black&Cox, are Compared and different conditions are discussed. At last, some comment on formula of debt valuation is given.     

Electricity Pricing Regulation in Demand Side Management

Time of use(Tou) price is one of the most efficient measure for modern demand side management(DSM).But a scientifically pricing is based on understanding the function of pricing mechanism and comprehensive analysis to social benefit.The authors develop a pricing model by game theory based on analysis of consumer's response to the time of-use price and analyze the pricing regulation of government for maximum social benefit.A conclusion is drawn,which suggests that government should let the electricity corporation to pricing, but just give a regulation on the average price level.     

私有林林农补贴偏好影响因素分析——基于南方集体林区林农问卷调查的实证研究

林农是南方集体林区最基本的林业经营微观主体,其经营意愿的高低必将影响林业经济的发展。对私有林进行补贴是激励林农提高其经营意愿,促进私有林健康、持续发展的重要手段。为降低制度供求矛盾,提高补贴制度实施效果,私有林补贴制度的设计必须立足于制度受益者林农的真实政策需求。基于此,设计问卷调查南方9省集体林区林农对补贴制度的偏好,并运用Logistic模型分析林农补贴偏好的影响因素,以求制度设计的合理性。分析得出,由于林农所处环境迥异,对补贴方式的偏好有较大的差异,但偏好的不同折射出林农在经营中的瓶颈,也为补贴制度设计提供了方向。     

美国奶业新特点、新趋势及对中国的启示

美国奶业发展历史悠久,其生产端、消费端乃至流通贸易方面长期积累的丰富经验,对中国奶业振兴具有一定的参考价值。笔者对2000年以来美国奶业生产、价格、消费、贸易等方面所呈现的新特点进行分析,对奶业相关的支持政策及其变化趋势进行梳理。研究发现,近年来,美国奶牛场数量向北部和西部集中,500头以上规模化牧场成为主流,奶牛存栏增加;技术进步推动奶牛单产突破10 t,生鲜乳产量接近1亿t。基于分级定价的乳成分定价机制不断完善,近5年生鲜乳价格低位运行,2019年快速复苏。乳制品加工业向龙头企业集中,奶酪是主要加工产品。乳制品消费逐年增长,年人均消费量达292.90 kg,奶酪是主要增长点且增速加快。乳制品贸易波动增加,出口目的地集中在北美、东亚和东南亚地区,品类以奶粉、奶酪和乳清为主。奶业产业支持政策广泛涵盖生产、消费、贸易等各环节,各政策间功能互补、协调配套,形成了强大的政策合力与综合效能。美国奶业在产业组织、运行机制、政策配套等方面的经验与做法,对推动完善中国奶业利益联结机制、优化生鲜乳价格形成机制、完善奶业支持政策体系和培育乳制品消费习惯等方面具有重要启示。     

福建鳗鱼制品出口贸易动态变化特征分析

摘要：利用福建鳗鱼制品出口贸易数据和FAO渔业统计数据,分析1997-2010年福建鳗鱼制品出口贸易额、出口结构以及出口价格变动。结果表明：福建该类产品在国际市场中占据重要地位,其出口额在近十年呈现下降趋势,但2010年有较大的提升;出口市场高度集中于日本市场,但近些年集中度有所下降;福建鳗鱼制品的出口价格和该类产品的国际市场价格存在很强的相关关系,该产品国际市场供需基本平衡,不存在产品差异性。最后,本文在得出结论的基础上,提出进一步提升该类产品出口的政策建议。     

考虑鲜度竞争的生鲜农产品双渠道供应链保鲜方式选择的研究

物流保鲜是影响农产品质量的重要因素之一。考虑消费者的鲜度敏感性和渠道偏好,构建了自营保鲜和保鲜外包两种情形下,生产商、零售商和冷链物流服务商的序贯博弈模型,求解出最优定价和鲜度水平。借助数值试验,分析了保鲜成本和保鲜服务价格对生产商和零售商的保鲜方式选择及渠道鲜度差异的影响。结果表明：无论生产商还是零售商,选择保鲜外包的农产品鲜度与保鲜成本呈负相关、与保鲜价格呈正相关。零售商总是选择自己保鲜,但是保鲜水平（或保鲜价格）高于（或低于）一定阈值后,生产商会选择保鲜外包,此时线下渠道与线上渠道的鲜度趋近。若保鲜水平较低,冷链物流服务商倾向于承接零售商保鲜外包,反之承接生产商保鲜外包,但是承接生产商保鲜外包的供应链系统利润更大。     

基于知识溢出效应的供应链企业利益协调研究

针对知识溢出时供应链企业间的利益分配问题,引入了供应链成员的参与度和贡献因子等来模拟资源共享或协同创新活动所产生的溢出现象,并提出了包括共享认知、技术差距、经济与空间地理、溢出风险控制和溢出成果补偿等主要驱动因素。综合运用修正Shapley模型和专家打分的方法进行模糊组合决策分析,通过模拟由3个成员组成的供应链企业,计算出每个成员的贡献度和其对知识溢出的效应差异,发现知识共享认知因素和溢出效果的补偿因素对供应链企业整体利益协调有较大的影响。最后指出修正模型的合理性,结果也表明知识溢出的量化是个关键性问题,也亟需相应补偿机制的研究。     

The Real Option Method of Real Estate Exploitation Evaluation

Real estate exploitations have high risk and its exploitation environment is quite uncertain. The traditional investment value methods, such as the net present value and discount cash flow methods, usually undervalue the real estate value. In this paper the real option pricing theories and methods are applied to discuss real estate investment value under uncertainty. This method provides a new approach for real estate items.     

黑龙江省大豆价格波动影响因素实证分析

本文以黑龙江为例研究大豆价格波动影响因素,从供给、需求、国家政策、国际市场的影响、市场流通的角度分别进行定性分析,在从中选取几个主要影响因素,收集相应的数据,建立了黑龙江省大豆价格波动影响因素的多元回归模型,用SPSS软件对所从统计年鉴和官方统计资料中收集的数据进行处理,确定这些影响因素对大豆价格波动的影响程度,最后根据模型处理的结果提出我省应对黑龙江省大豆价格变动可以采取的相应政策建议,以便大豆主产区的黑龙江省大豆产业更好更快的发展。     

On Joint Incentive Contracts Under Horizontal Monitor

According to the problem that the independent incentive contracts relying on one's own output,which is given out by classical principalagent theory,only can realize the second best efforts,this paper analyzes the optimal contract under horizontal monitor by which independent agents can monitor each other,and comes to the conclusion that the joint incentive contracts relying on one's own output and others' can realize the first best efforts under horizontal monitor.The independent agents can sign implicit side contracts among them by the horizontal monitor and the dynamic joint incentive contracts,in which strict team incentive compatibility contracts are taken at the first stage and individual incentive compatibility contracts are taken at the second stage,make the retaliation mechanism regulated by implicit side contracts among agents feasible and credible,and hence can realize optimal incentives.     

中国生猪价格波动的经济学解释

生猪养殖业在中国具有举足轻重的地位。近年来生猪市场价格波动频繁,对国民经济平稳运行和产业良性发展具有一定影响。对相关文献进行梳理可知,生猪价格波动具有内生性因素和外生性因素,进而文章提出以经济学理论研究生猪价格波动的成因。蛛网模型是解释农产品价格波动的主要工具。以2000年1月至2012年7月的数据为分析对象,发现中国生猪价格波动呈现出整体发散,但局部封闭、收敛的“蛛网紊乱”状态,认为这与中国宏观经济环境的变化,尤其是以利率为代表的货币政策的变化有密切关联。通过仔猪和饲料价格变化分析养殖户的行为,以及根据宏观劳动需求与产量供给分析真实工资与生猪养殖行业之间的关系,是2种探索性的解释,有助于弥补蛛网模型的不足。     

“一带一路”背景下中俄农产品产业内贸易增长潜力分析

为深刻认识“一带一路”战略下中俄农产品贸易潜力,探究制约中俄农产品贸易增长的主要因素,基于2001—2013年UN Comtrade相关数据,对中俄农产品贸易的相似性、互补性和增长潜力进行实证分析。研究发现,市场需求引致效应是中俄农产品贸易增长的首要因素;出口结构效应制约了中国对俄农产品贸易增长,出口竞争力效应阻碍了俄罗斯对中农产品贸易增长。为此,中国可通过加强对俄信息交流、培育规模化农业经营主体等手段调整中国农产品供给结构,同时,中国应建立价格预警机制和预防机制以应对俄罗斯农产品供给价格和质量变动。