An agent-based approach to model future residential pressure on a regional landscape

This paper presents a framework to model future residential demand for housing in a polycentric region. The model, called HI-LIFE (Household Interactions through LIFE cycle stages), builds on Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigms. In contrast to traditional equilibrium-based urban economics models that assume a homogenous population of rational actors, ABM focuses on the diversity of heterogeneous household agents and their behaviour in time and in space. The model simulates land-use patterns at the regional scale by integrating qualitative knowledge of agent location preferences with quantitative analysis of urban growth dynamics within a high resolution spatial modelling framework. The model was calibrated for the region of East Anglia in the UK using a semi-quantitative procedure. Simulation of urban dynamics for the future was undertaken for a 25 year period with the assumption of a continuation of baseline behavioural trends. The results demonstrated non-uniform, spatial patterns of urban sprawl with some locations experiencing greater urban development pressure than others. The town of Brundall, in particular, has a large potential demand for residential housing because of its proximity to the principle city, Norwich. As Brundall is also located close to a national park and a river, new housing development in this area would increase the risk of ecological impacts and flood damage. By modelling explicitly agent behaviour and interactions, ABM can simulate the response and adaptation strategies of a population to changing circumstances. This makes ABM especially well suited to the analysis of environmental change and landscape ecology pressures through scenario modelling.     

Modelling and simulating change in reforesting mountain landscapes using a social-ecological framework

Natural reforestation of European mountain landscapes raises major environmental and societal issues. With local stakeholders in the Pyrenees National Park area (France), we studied agricultural landscape colonisation by ash (Fraxinus excelsior) to enlighten its impacts on biodiversity and other landscape functions of importance for the valley socio-economics. The study comprised an integrated assessment of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) since the 1950s, and a scenario analysis of alternative future policy. We combined knowledge and methods from landscape ecology, land change and agricultural sciences, and a set of coordinated field studies to capture interactions and feedback in the local landscape/land-use system. Our results elicited the hierarchically-nested relationships between social and ecological processes. Agricultural change played a preeminent role in the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC. Landscape colonisation by ash at the parcel level of organisation was merely controlled by grassland management, and in fact depended on the farmer’s land management at the whole-farm level. LUCC patterns at the landscape level depended to a great extent on interactions between farm household behaviours and the spatial arrangement of landholdings within the landscape mosaic. Our results stressed the need to represent the local SES function at a fine scale to adequately capture scenarios of change in landscape functions. These findings orientated our modelling choices in the building an agent-based model for LUCC simulation (SMASH–Spatialized Multi-Agent System of landscape colonization by ASH). We discuss our method and results with reference to topical issues in interdisciplinary research into the sustainability of multifunctional landscapes.     

Patterns of disturbance at multiple scales in real and simulated landscapes

We describe a framework to characterize and interpret the spatial patterns of disturbances at multiple scales in socio-ecological systems. Domains of scale are defined in pattern metric space and mapped in geographic space, which can help to understand how anthropogenic disturbances might impact biodiversity through habitat modification. The approach identifies typical disturbance 'profiles' based on the similarity of trajectories in a pattern metric space over a range of spatial scales. When different profiles are coherent in pattern metric space, they describe a regional spatial pattern. The divergence of a profile indicates a scale-dependent transition to a local spatial pattern, which can be examined for correspondence to different regions of geographic space. We illustrate the conceptual model with simulated maps and real disturbance maps from satellite imagery in south Italy. The results suggest that management of disturbances in the study region depend less on local drivers of disturbance and more on broader-scale drivers within the socio-ecological framework.     

From explanation to application: introducing a practice-oriented ecosystem services evaluation (PRESET) model adapted to the context of landscape planning and management

The development and use of the conceptual framework of ecosystem services (ES) has been very successful in supporting the broad diffusion and application of ES within science and policy communities. However, most of the currently proposed interpretations of the framework neither correlate to environmental planning nor to decision-making contexts at the local and regional scale, which is a potential reason for the slow adoption and practice of the ES conceptual framework. This paper proposes a practice-oriented ES evaluation (PRESET) model specifically adapted to the requirements of local and regional planning and decision-making contexts, and discusses its potential benefits and implications for practice. Through the usage of PRESET we suggest making a distinction between ‘offered ES’, ‘utilized ES’, ‘human input’, and ‘ES benefits’ as relevant information for decision-making. Furthermore, we consider it important to link these decision-support categories to different value dimensions relevant in planning and management practice. PRESET provides guidance to inject the ES concept into planning, but needs to be implemented together with concrete assessment methods, indicators and data. The planning strategic benefits of using PRESET include its reference to existing legislative objectives, avoiding the risk that monetized ES values might dominate decision-making, clarification of human contributions, and easier identification of land use conflicts and synergies. Examples are given for offered and utilized ES, as well as for respective evaluation approaches and instruments of implementation.     

Cultural ecosystem benefits of urban and peri-urban green infrastructure across different European countries

Green Infrastructure within urban areas has become increasingly important in recent years. There has been the development of a European Commission green infrastructure strategy and a range of initiatives identifying the importance of green infrastructure. This paper explicitly identifies the cultural ecosystem benefits gained from urban and peri-urban green infrastructure drawing on studies undertaken in different European countries. The paper utilises the cultural ecosystem services framework developed in a United Kingdom National Ecosystem Assessment project. A review of literature identified studies from fifteen different countries and explores linkages between the types of green infrastructure, the practices undertaken in these spaces and the cultural ecosystem benefits gained. The results show that there are few detailed linkages made between the types of green infrastructure and the practices and benefits associated with these. The cultural ecosystem framework provides an important conceptual approach and this paper is one of the first to populate the framework in greater detail. Further research is needed to assess the differences in benefits and practices associated with different types of green infrastructure. A key message is that the cultural ecosystem benefits identified are wide ranging, diverse and multiple. The typologies and conceptual matrix developed in this paper could be utilised by green infrastructure practitioners to assist them in taking account of cultural ecosystem benefits in their management decision making processes.     

Linkages beyond borders: targeting spatial processes in fragmented urban landscapes

Management of ecosystems often focuses on specific species chosen for their habitat demand, public appeal, or levels of threat. We propose a complementary framework for choosing focal species, the mobile link concept, which allows managers to focus on spatial processes and deal with multi-scale ecological dynamics. Spatial processes are important for three reasons: maintenance, re-organization, and restoration of ecological values. We illustrate the framework with a case study of the Eurasian Jay, a mobile link species of importance for the oak forest regeneration in the Stockholm National Urban Park, Sweden, and its surroundings. The case study concludes with a conceptual model for how the framework can be applied in management. The model is based on a review of published data complemented with a seed predation experiment and mapping of Jay territories to reduce the risk of applying non-urban site-specific information in an urban setting. Our case study shows that the mobile link approach has several advantages: (1) Reducing the vulnerability of ecological functions to disturbances and fluctuations in resources allocated to management, (2) Reducing management costs by maintaining natural processes, and (3) Maintaining gene flow and genetic diversity at a landscape level. We argue that management that includes mobile link organisms is an important step towards the prevention of ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss in increasingly fragmented landscapes. Identifying and managing mobile links is a way to align management with the ecologically relevant scales in any landscape.     

Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model

Land use change is the result of interactions between processes operating at different scales. Simulation models at regional to global scales are often incapable of including locally determined processes of land use change. This paper introduces a modeling approach that integrates demand-driven changes in land area with locally determined conversion processes. The model is illustrated with an application for European land use. Interactions between changing demands for agricultural land and vegetation processes leading to the re-growth of (semi-) natural vegetation on abandoned farmland are explicitly addressed. Succession of natural vegetation is simulated based on the spatial variation in biophysical and management related conditions, while the dynamics of the agricultural area are determined by a global multi-sector model. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of European land use and landscapes. The model approach is similarly suitable for other regions and processes where large scale processes interact with local dynamics.     

Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, adaptation to climate change must be considered in the context of other driving forces that will cause farms of the future to look differently from today’s farms. In this paper we use a historical analysis of the influence of different drivers on farm structure, complemented with literature and stakeholder consultations, to assess future structural change of farms in a region under different plausible futures. As climate change is one of the drivers considered, this study thus puts climate change impact and adaptation into the context of other drivers. The province of Flevoland in the north of The Netherlands was used as case study, with arable farming as the main activity. To account for the heterogeneity of farms and to indicate possible directions of farm structural change, a farm typology was developed. Trends in past developments in farm types were analyzed with data from the Dutch agricultural census. The historical analysis allowed to detect the relative importance of driving forces that contributed to farm structural changes. Simultaneously, scenario assumptions about changes in these driving forces elaborated at global and European levels, were downscaled for Flevoland, to regional and farm type level in order to project impacts of drivers on farm structural change towards 2050. Input from stakeholders was also used to detail the downscaled scenarios and to derive historical and future relationships between drivers and farm structural change. These downscaled scenarios and future driver-farm structural change relationships were used to derive quantitative estimations of farm structural change at regional and farm type level in Flevoland. In addition, stakeholder input was used to also derive images of future farms in Flevoland. The estimated farm structural changes differed substantially between the two scenarios. Our estimations of farm structural change provide a proper context for assessing impacts of and adaptation to climate change in 2050 at crop and farm level.     

Concepts and methods for landscape multifunctionality and a unifying framework based on ecosystem services

The potential of landscapes to supply multiple benefits to society beyond commodities production has received increasing research and policy attention. Linking the concept of multifunctionality with the ecosystem services (ES) approach offers a promising avenue for producing scientific evidence to inform landscape planning, e.g., about the relative utility of land-sharing and land-sparing. However, the value for decision-making of ES-based multifunctionality assessments has been constrained by a significant conceptual and methodological dispersion. To contribute towards a cohesive framework for landscape multifunctionality, we analyse case studies of joint ES supply regarding ten criteria designed to ultimately answer four aspects: (i) the multifunctionality of what (e.g., landscapes), (ii) the type of multifunctionality (e.g., based on ES synergies), (iii) the procedure of multifunctionality assessments, and (iv) the purpose of multifunctionality. We constructed a typology of methodological approaches based on scores for criteria describing the evaluation method and the level of stakeholder participation in assessments of joint ES supply. Surveyed studies and underlying types of methodological approaches (spatial, socio-spatial, functional, spatio-functional) differed in most criteria. We illustrate the influence of methodological divergence on planning recommendations by comparing two studies employing contrasting approaches (spatial and functional) to assess the joint supply of wildlife habitat and agricultural production in the Argentine Chaco. We distinguish between a pattern-based and process-based multifunctionality, where the latter can only be detected through approaches considering the ecological processes (e.g., ES complementarities) supporting the supply of multiple ES (functional and spatio-functional). Finally, we propose an integrated approach for assessing a socially-relevant process-based multifunctionality.     

Toward a rule-based biome model

Current projections of the response of the biosphere to global climatic change indicate as much as 50% to 90% spatial displacement of extratropical biomes. The mechanism of spatial shift could be dominated by either 1) competitive displacement of northern biomes by southern biomes, or 2) drought-induced dieback of areas susceptible to change. The current suite of global biosphere models cannot distinguish between these two processes, thus determining the need for a mechanistically based biome model. The first steps have been taken towards the development of a rule-based, mechanistic model of regional biomes at a continental scale. The computer model is based on a suite of empirically generated conceptual models of biome distribution. With a few exceptions the conceptual models are based on the regional water balance and the potential supply of water to vegetation from two different soil layers, surface for grasses and deep for woody vegetation. The seasonality of precipitation largely determines the amount and timing of recharge of each of these soil layers and thus, the potential mixture of vegetative life-forms that could be supported under a specific climate. The current configuration of rules accounts for the potential natural vegetation at about 94% of 1211 climate stations over the conterminous U.S. Increased temperatures, due to global warming, would 1) reduce the supply of soil moisture over much of the U.S. by reducing the volume of snow and increasing winter runoff, and 2) increase the potential evapotranspiration (PET). These processes combined would likely produce widespread drought-induced dieback in the nation’s biomes. The model is in an early stage of development and will require several enhancements, including explicit simulation of PET, extension to boreal and tropical biomes, a shift from steady-state to transient dynamics, and validation on other continents.     

Influence of path design cooling strategies on thermal conditions and pedestrian walkability in high-rise residential complexes

Intensive urbanization exacerbates overheating in cities, leading to negative impacts on human health. Although numerous studies have investigated the improvement of pedestrian comfort through street-level treatments, few have examined the influence on pedestrian walkability, and the spatial extent of cooling effects from paths to adjacent areas remains unevaluated. This study assesses the cooling effects of different mitigation strategies on four thermal indicators—surface temperature (T_surf), air temperature (T_a), mean radiant temperature (MRT), and physiological equivalent temperature (PET)—using ENVI-met simulations. We employ Agent-based Models (ABM) to analyze pedestrian walkability through perceived travel time (PTT). The study focuses on two high-rise residential complexes in Suwon City, South Korea, and compares reflective pavement, single-row tree planting, and clustered tree planting mitigation strategies. Results indicate that single-row planting offers more significant cooling effects across the entire site compared to other strategies, while clustered planting improves local heat conditions. Cooling effects extend from the path to the entire block, with single-row planting reducing T_surf by up to 5.5 °C, T_a by 0.2 °C, MRT by 16.2 °C, and PET by 5.8 °C at 12.72 m away from paths during the hottest hours. ABM results suggest that single-row planting provides the best PTT reduction and can be up to 36.24 %. The proposed framework and findings provide urban designers with a data-driven approach to optimize pedestrian thermal comfort and walkability.     

Impacts of landscape changes on local and regional climate: a systematic review

Landscape Ecology - Studies have shown that land use and land cover change (LUCC) has myriad impacts on local and regional climate. Synthesizing the recent findings in this field helps advance...     

Evidence of Hierarchical Patch Dynamics in an East African savanna?

The Hierarchical Patch Dynamics Paradigm provides a conceptual framework for linking pattern, process and scale in ecosystems, but there have been few attempts to test this theory because most ecological studies focus on only one spatial scale, or are limited in their temporal scope. Here I use palaeoecological techniques (analysis of fossil pollen and stable carbon isotopes) to compare vegetation heterogeneity in an east African savanna at three spatial scales, over hundreds of years. The data show that patterns of vegetation change are different at the three spatial scales of observation, and suggest that different ecological processes dominate tree abundance at micro, local and landscape scales. Interactions between plants, disturbance (e.g., by fire and herbivores), climate and soil type may influence tree density at differing spatial and temporal scales. This hierarchical explanation of savanna vegetation dynamics could inform future biodiversity conservation and management in savannas. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Evidence of Hierarchical Patch Dynamics in an East African savanna?

The Hierarchical Patch Dynamics Paradigm provides a conceptual framework for linking pattern, process and scale in ecosystems, but there have been few attempts to test this theory because most ecological studies focus on only one spatial scale, or are limited in their temporal scope. Here I use palaeoecological techniques (analysis of fossil pollen and stable carbon isotopes) to compare vegetation heterogeneity in an east African savanna at three spatial scales, over hundreds of years. The data show that patterns of vegetation change are different at the three spatial scales of observation, and suggest that different ecological processes dominate tree abundance at micro, local and landscape scales. Interactions between plants, disturbance (e.g., by fire and herbivores), climate and soil type may influence tree density at differing spatial and temporal scales. This hierarchical explanation of savanna vegetation dynamics could inform future biodiversity conservation and management in savannas. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Predicting the assembly of novel communities in urban ecosystems

Context

Ecological communities in urban ecosystems are assembled through ecological processes, such as species interactions, dispersal, and environmental filtering, but also through human factors that create and modify the landscape. These complex interactions make it difficult to untangle the relationships between social–ecological dynamics and urban biodiversity.

Objectives

As a result, there has been a call for research to address how human activities influence the processes by which ecological communities are structured in urban ecosystems. We address this research challenge using core concepts from landscape ecology to develop a framework that links social-ecological dynamics to ecological communities using the metacommunity perspective.

Methods

The metacommunity perspective is a useful framework to explore the assembly of novel communities because it distinguishes between the effects of local environmental heterogeneity and regional spatial processes in structuring ecological communities. Both are shaped by social–ecological dynamics in urban ecosystems.

Results

In this paper, we define social, environmental, and spatial processes that structure metacommunities, and ultimately biodiversity, in cities. We then address how our framework could be applied in urban ecosystem research to understand multi-scalar biodiversity patterns.

Conclusions

Our framework provides a theoretical and empirical foundation for transdisciplinary research to examine how social-ecological dynamics mediate the assembly of novel communities in urban ecosystems.

     

Exploring the relevance of a landscape ecological paradigm for sustainable landscapes and livelihoods: A case-application from the Northern Territory Australia

Global change is exacerbating the need for more effective mechanisms and approaches for working towards economic, social/cultural and environmental sustainability. It is now well recognised that science for sustainability will require integrated problem-focussed research that is by nature trans-disciplinary. Resolutions to both global and regional scale issues must involve participation of a diverse number of stakeholders. One region that would benefit greatly from such an integrated approach is the Northern Territory of Australia. This area is home to some of the most pristine savanna landscapes in the world and it is also occupied by one of the oldest living human cultures which are still in existence today. However, in recent years there has been increasing pressure to develop this region. The Northern Territory is also facing problems associated with having a growing Aboriginal population with deepening health and social problems. So as well as needing to facilitate adaptation in response to global change and development for economic prosperity of the region, there is an obligation to alter management practices to reduce social disadvantage. In light of this, it will be important that future landscapes are multifunctional and designed to ensure the preservation of biological and cultural diversity, as well as having provision for the livelihoods of the people that live within them. This article recommends the adoption of a landscape ecological approach for strategic development and sustainable planning, which captures and incorporates the values and identities of the different stakeholders, as well as engaging them in a continuous, adaptive process of planning and management, and in doing so discusses the importance of human ecological holism as part of the conceptual framework for landscape ecology.     

Integrative approach for landscape-based graph connectivity analysis: a case study with the common frog (Rana temporaria) in human-dominated landscapes

Graph-based analysis is a promising approach for analyzing the functional and structural connectivity of landscapes. In human-shaped landscapes, species have become vulnerable to land degradation and connectivity loss between habitat patches. Movement across the landscape is a key process for species survival that needs to be further investigated for heterogeneous human-dominated landscapes. The common frog (Rana temporaria) was used as a case study to explore and provide a graph connectivity analysis framework that integrates habitat suitability and dispersal responses to landscape permeability. The main habitat patches influencing habitat availability and connectivity were highlighted by using the software Conefor Sensinode 2.2. One of the main advantages of the presented graph-theoretical approach is its ability to provide a large choice of variables to be used based on the study’s assumptions and knowledge about target species. Based on dispersal simulation modelling in potential suitable habitat corridors, three distinct patterns of nodes connections of differing importance were revealed. These patterns are locally influenced by anthropogenic barriers, landscape permeability, and habitat suitability. And they are affected by different suitability and availability gradients to maximize the best possible settlement by the common frog within a terrestrial habitat continuum. The study determined the key role of landscape-based approaches for identifying the “availability-suitability-connectivity” patterns from a local to regional approach to provide an operational tool for landscape planning.     

The ecology of urban landscapes: modeling housing starts as a density-dependent colonization process

Data on permits for new housing starts are a key source of information on recent changes in the urban landscape of central Arizona, USA. Drawing primarily on the conceptual parallels between the process of urban expansion and the spatial spread of non-human species, we outline a nested series of 'colonization' models that could be used to study changes in urban landscapes through simulations of housing starts.Within our probabilistic colonization framework, the ecological principle of density-dependence (operating simultaneously on different spatial scales) governs the positioning of new housing units. These simple models afford a great diversity of possible spatial patterns, ranging from tight clustering of houses to urban sprawl to more subtle patterns such as aversion of housing developments from (and aggregation near) different kinds of landscape features. These models can be parameterized from a variety of types of governmental housing data. Ultimately, such a framework could be used to contrast development patterns among cities and identify pertinent operational scales and factors influencing processes associated with urbanization.     

Global biodiversity scenarios and landscape ecology

The composition of ecological communities is both cause and consequence of landscape pattern. Predicting biodiversity change involves understanding not only ecology and evolution, but also complex changes in human societies and economies. Scenarios offer a less rigid approach to thinking about biodiversity change in a policy and management context. They shift the focus of research and management from making singular predictions and developing single ‘best’ strategies to exploring uncertainties and assessing the outcomes of alternative policies. The four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) biodiversity scenarios illustrate current approaches to biodiversity estimation in global scenarios. The MA biodiversity scenarios are built around the species–area relationship and the magnitudes of a few area-dependent processes such as nitrogen deposition and climate change. Some of the most obvious landscape-related omissions from the MA scenarios are pattern-process feedbacks, scale dependencies, and the role of landscape configuration. While the MA has set a new standard for biodiversity scenarios, future exercises would benefit from a more multi-scale and more mechanistic framework. I use examples from research on the landscape ecology and biogeography of African ticks to illustrate how a hypothesis-based approach can be used to analyse the multi-scale, multi-level drivers of change in patterns of species occurrences. Two of the most important challenges for the future development of both landscape ecology and biodiversity scenarios are to become more mechanistic (less pattern-based) and more general (applicable across different landscapes).     

A modelling approach to infer the effects of wind farms on landscape connectivity for bats

Little is known about the potentially disrupting effects of wind farms on the habitat connectivity of flying vertebrates at the landscape scale. We developed a regional-scale model to assess the wind farm impact on bat migration and commuting routes. The model was implemented for the bat Nyctalus leisleri in a region of central Italy currently undergoing considerable wind farm development. A Species Distribution Model (SDM) for N. leisleri was generated using the MaxEnt algorithm based on 47 presence records (reduced to 19 after the autocorrelation procedure) and 10 environmental variables derived from topographic and land cover maps. We used the SDM to create a map of connectivity using the software UNICOR to identify potential commuting corridors (PCCs). The incidence of each wind farm on bat flight corridors was assessed by overlaying the existing (380) and planned (195) turbine locations onto the PCCs. The SDM was statistically robust (AUC > 0.8). Most of the corridors were concentrated in the western part of the region, which hosts the largest suitable areas for the species; most of the existing (54 %) and planned (72 %) wind farms interfered with important corridors connecting the western and the eastern parts of the region. Our results provide key information on the impact of the wind farm industry on biodiversity on a regional scale. The novel approach adopted, based on SDM and connectivity analysis, could be easily extended to other flying vertebrates and landscapes and constitutes a promising planning tool necessary for harmonizing the development of renewable energy infrastructures with issues of biodiversity conservation.