Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in california

After a strong earthquake, the possibility of the occurrence of either significant aftershocks or an even stronger mainshock is a continuing hazard that threatens the resumption of critical services and reoccupation of essential but partially damaged structures. A stochastic parametric model allows determination of probabilities for aftershocks and larger mainshocks during intervals following the mainshock. The probabilities depend strongly on the model parameters, which are estimated with Bayesian statistics from both the ongoing aftershock sequence and from a suite of historic California aftershock sequences. Probabilities for damaging aftershocks and greater mainshocks are typically well-constrained after the first day of the sequence, with accuracy increasing with time.     

Propagation of slow slip leading up to the 2011 M(w) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

Many large earthquakes are preceded by one or more foreshocks, but it is unclear how these foreshocks relate to the nucleation process of the mainshock. On the basis of an earthquake catalog created using a waveform correlation technique, we identified two distinct sequences of foreshocks migrating at rates of 2 to 10 kilometers per day along the trench axis toward the epicenter of the 2011 moment magnitude (M(w)) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan. The time history of quasi-static slip along the plate interface, based on small repeating earthquakes that were part of the migrating seismicity, suggests that two sequences involved slow-slip transients propagating toward the initial rupture point. The second sequence, which involved large slip rates, may have caused substantial stress loading, prompting the unstable dynamic rupture of the mainshock.     

Shallow dynamic overshoot and energetic deep rupture in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

Strong spatial variation of rupture characteristics in the moment magnitude (M(w)) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki megathrust earthquake controlled both the strength of shaking and the size of the tsunami that followed. Finite-source imaging reveals that the rupture consisted of a small initial phase, deep rupture for up to 40 seconds, extensive shallow rupture at 60 to 70 seconds, and continuing deep rupture lasting more than 100 seconds. A combination of a shallow dipping fault and a compliant hanging wall may have enabled large shallow slip near the trench. Normal faulting aftershocks in the area of high slip suggest dynamic overshoot on the fault. Despite prodigious total slip, shallower parts of the rupture weakly radiated at high frequencies, whereas deeper parts of the rupture radiated strongly at high frequencies.     

Magmatically triggered slow slip at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

We demonstrate that a recent dike intrusion probably triggered a slow fault-slip event (SSE) on Kilauea volcano's mobile south flank. Our analysis combined models of Advanced Land Observing Satellite interferometric dike-intrusion displacement maps with continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) displacement vectors to show that deformation nearly identical to four previous SSEs at Kilauea occurred at far-field sites shortly after the intrusion. We model stress changes because of both secular deformation and the intrusion and find that both would increase the Coulomb failure stress on possible SSE slip surfaces by roughly the same amount. These results, in concert with the observation that none of the previous SSEs at Kilauea was directly preceded by intrusions but rather occurred during times of normal background deformation, suggest that both extrinsic (intrusion-triggering) and intrinsic (secular fault creep) fault processes can lead to SSEs.     

Estimation of fault strength: reconstruction of stress before the 1995 Kobe earthquake

We have estimated the stress field before the 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquake (moment magnitude 6.9) using in situ post-shock stress measurements obtained from hydraulic fracturing experiments near the fault. We reconstructed the pre-shock stress field using a kinematic source model inverted from seismic waveforms and geodetic deformations. We found that at the center of the fault, two sides of the fault surface coupled completely before the earthquake, with a coefficient of friction of 0.6, which is equivalent to strong crust. At the edge of the fault, a possible aseismic slip is expected to occur from the pre-shock stress orientation.     

Frictional afterslip following the 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake, Sumatra

Continuously recording Global Positioning System stations near the 28 March 2005 rupture of the Sunda megathrust [moment magnitude (Mw) 8.7] show that the earthquake triggered aseismic frictional afterslip on the subduction megathrust, with a major fraction of this slip in the up-dip direction from the main rupture. Eleven months after the main shock, afterslip continues at rates several times the average interseismic rate, resulting in deformation equivalent to at least a M(w) 8.2 earthquake. In general, along-strike variations in frictional behavior appear to persist over multiple earthquake cycles. Aftershocks cluster along the boundary between the region of coseismic slip and the up-dip creeping zone. We observe that the cumulative number of aftershocks increases linearly with postseismic displacements; this finding suggests that the temporal evolution of aftershocks is governed by afterslip.     

Variations in strength and slip rate along the san andreas fault system

Convergence across the San Andreas fault (SAF) system is partitioned between strike-slip motion on the vertical SAF and oblique-slip motion on parallel dip-slip faults, as illustrated by the recent magnitude M(s) = 6.0 Palm Springs, M(s) = 6.7 Coalinga, and M(s) = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquakes. If the partitioning of slip minimizes the work done against friction, the direction of slip during these recent earthquakes depends primarily on fault dip and indicates that the normal stress coefficient and frictional coefficient (micro) vary among the faults. Additionally, accounting for the active dip-slip faults reduces estimates of fault slip rates along the vertical trace of the SAF by about 50 percent in the Loma Prieta and 100 percent in the North Palm Springs segments.     

A high-frequency secondary event during the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

By using seismic records of the 2004 magnitude 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, we identified a burst of high-frequency seismic radiation that occurred about 13 kilometers northwest of the hypocenter and 5 seconds after rupture initiation. We imaged this event in three dimensions by using a waveform back-projection method, as well as by timing distinct arrivals visible on many of the seismograms. The high-frequency event is located near the south edge of a large slip patch seen in most seismic and geodetic inversions, indicating that slip may have grown abruptly at this point. The time history obtained from full-waveform back projection suggests a rupture velocity of 2.5 kilometers per second. Energy estimates for the subevent, together with long-period slip inversions, indicate a lower average stress drop for the northern part of the Parkfield earthquake compared with that for the region near its hypocenter, which is in agreement with stress-drop estimates obtained from small-magnitude aftershocks.     

New evidence on the state of stress of the san andreas fault system

Contemporary in situ tectonic stress indicators along the San Andreas fault system in central California show northeast-directed horizontal compression that is nearly perpendicular to the strike of the fault. Such compression explains recent uplift of the Coast Ranges and the numerous active reverse faults and folds that trend nearly parallel to the San Andreas and that are otherwise unexplainable in terms of strike-slip deformation. Fault-normal crustal compression in central California is proposed to result from the extremely low shear strength of the San Andreas and the slightly convergent relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Preliminary in situ stress data from the Cajon Pass scientific drill hole (located 3.6 kilometers northeast of the San Andreas in southern California near San Bernardino, California) are also consistent with a weak fault, as they show no right-lateral shear stress at approximately 2-kilometer depth on planes parallel to the San Andreas fault.     

Near-field investigations of the landers earthquake sequence, april to july 1992

The Landers earthquake, which had a moment magnitude (M(w)) of 7.3, was the largest earthquake to strike the contiguous United States in 40 years. This earthquake resulted from the rupture of five major and many minor right-lateral faults near the southern end of the eastern California shear zone, just north of the San Andreas fault. Its M(w) 6.1 preshock and M(w) 6.2 aftershock had their own aftershocks and foreshocks. Surficial geological observations are consistent with local and far-field seismologic observations of the earthquake. Large surficial offsets (as great as 6 meters) and a relatively short rupture length (85 kilometers) are consistent with seismological calculations of a high stress drop (200 bars), which is in turn consistent with an apparently long recurrence interval for these faults.     

The nature of the landers-mojave earthquake line

The Landers, California, earthquake of 28 June 1992 (magnitude = 7.3) is the latest of six significant earthquakes in the past 60 years whose epicenters and slip directions define a 100-kilometer alignment running approximately N15 degrees W across the central Mojave region. This pattern may indicate a geologically young throughgoing fault that replaces numerous older strike-slip faults by obliquely cutting across them. These older faults, and perhaps also the bend in the San Andreas fault, may be losing their ability to accommodate upper crustal deformation because they have become unfavorably oriented with respect to the regional stress field.     

Seismic amplitude measurements suggest foreshocks have different focal mechanisms than aftershocks

The ratio of the amplitudes of P and S waves from the foreshocks and aftershocks to three recent California earthquakes show a characteristic change at the time of the main events. As this ratio is extremely sensitive to small changes in the orientation of the fault plane, a small systematic change in stress or fault configuration in the source region may be inferred. These results suggest an approach to the recognition of foreshocks based on simple measurements of the amplitudes of seismic waves.     

Replication of apparent nonlinear seismic response with linear wave propagation models

It is necessary to understand ground-motion amplification by sediment, defined as the ratio of ground motions at sediment sites to those at rock sites, to predict seismic loadings for earthquake engineering. At sediment sites, observed weak-motion amplifications from magnitude 3 to 4 aftershocks of the 1994 Northridge earthquake were twice as large as magnitude 6.7 mainshock amplifications. Amplitude-dependent (nonlinear) amplification by sediment is one explanation. However, earthquake simulations with empirical impulse responses and elastic finite-difference calculations with weakly heterogeneous, random three-dimensional (3D) crustal velocity variations show that linear wave propagation can explain observed (apparently nonlinear) sediment responses. Random 3D velocity variations also reproduce the observed log-normal dispersion of peak ground motions. Deterministic wave propagation models are not adequate to quantify the scaling and dispersion of near-source ground motions.     

Strain-softening instability model for the san fernando earthquake

Changes in the ground elevation observed before and immediately after the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake are consistent with a theoretical model in which fault zone rocks are strain-softening after peak stress. The model implies that the slip rate of the fault increased to aboul 0.1 meter per year near the focus before the earthquake.     

Coseismic and Postseismic Fault Slip for the 17 August 1999, M = 7.5, Izmit, Turkey Earthquake

We use Global Positioning System (GPS) observations and elastic half-space models to estimate the distribution of coseismic and postseismic slip along the Izmit earthquake rupture. Our results indicate that large coseismic slip (reaching 5.7 meters) is confined to the upper 10 kilometers of the crust, correlates with structurally distinct fault segments, and is relatively low near the hypocenter. Continued surface deformation during the first 75 days after the earthquake indicates an aseismic fault slip of as much as 0.43 meters on and below the coseismic rupture. These observations are consistent with a transition from unstable (episodic large earthquakes) to stable (fault creep) sliding at the base of the seismogenic zone.     

Fault zone connectivity: slip rates on faults in the san francisco bay area, california

The slip rate of a fault segment is related to the length of the fault zone of which it is part. In turn, the slip rate of a fault zone is related to its connectivity with adjoining or contiguous fault zones. The observed variation in slip rate on fault segments in the San Francisco Bay area in California is consistent with connectivity between the Hayward, Calaveras, and San Andreas fault zones. Slip rates on the southern Hayward fault taper northward from a maximum of more than 10 millimeters per year and are sensitive to the active length of the Maacama fault.     

Frictional melting during the rupture of the 1994 bolivian earthquake

The source parameters of the 1994 Bolivian earthquake (magnitude Mw = 8.3) suggest that the maximum seismic efficiency eta was 0.036 and the minimum frictional stress was 550 bars. Thus, the source process was dissipative, which is consistent with the observed slow rupture speed, only 20% of the local S-wave velocity. The amount of nonradiated energy produced during the Bolivian rupture was comparable to, or larger than, the thermal energy of the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption and was sufficient to have melted a layer as thick as 31 centimeters. Once rupture was initiated, melting could occur, which reduces friction and promotes fault slip.     

Deformation on nearby faults induced by the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observations of surface deformation due to the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake reveal motion on several nearby faults of the eastern California shear zone. We document both vertical and horizontal displacements of several millimeters to several centimeters across kilometer-wide zones centered on pre-existing faults. Portions of some faults experienced retrograde (that is, opposite to their long-term geologic slip) motion during or shortly after the earthquake. The observed deformation likely represents elastic response of compliant fault zones to the permanent co-seismic stress changes. The induced fault displacements imply decreases in the effective shear modulus within the kilometer-wide fault zones, indicating that the latter are mechanically distinct from the ambient crustal rocks.     

The aftershock signature of supershear earthquakes

Recent studies show that earthquake faults may rupture at speeds exceeding the shear wave velocity of rocks. This supershear rupture produces in the ground a seismic shock wave similar to the sonic boom produced by a supersonic airplane. This shock wave may increase the destruction caused by the earthquake. We report that supershear earthquakes are characterized by a specific pattern of aftershocks: The fault plane itself is remarkably quiet whereas aftershocks cluster off the fault, on secondary structures that are activated by the supershear rupture. The post-earthquake quiescence of the fault shows that friction is relatively uniform over supershear segments, whereas the activation of off-fault structures is explained by the shock wave radiation, which produces high stresses over a wide zone surrounding the fault.     

Transition between frictional slip and ductile flow for halite shear zones at room temperature

A complete transition from frictional slip to ductile shearing flow upon decreasing velocity (or slip rate) or increasing confining pressure is documented for a thin layer of halite undergoing large shearing deformation. The results indicate that the logarithmic law for steady-state friction with a negative velocity dependence breaks down when friction becomes nearly equal to the shear resistance required for ductile flow and that the law changes into a flow law in shear upon further decrease in velocity. The frictionvelocity relation is crucial in stability analyses of fault motion, and the results are important for earthquake and state-of-stress problems, especially in the application of laboratory data to the slow average motion of natural faults and to the behavior of deep faults along which ductile deformation becomes increasingly predominant.