Bird response to future climate and forest management focused on mitigating climate change

Context

Global temperatures are projected to increase and affect forests and wildlife populations. Forest management can potentially mitigate climate-induced changes through promoting carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change.

Objectives

We modeled direct and indirect effects of climate change on avian abundance through changes in forest landscapes and assessed impacts on bird abundances of forest management strategies designed to mitigate climate change effects.

Methods

We coupled a Bayesian hierarchical model with a spatially explicit landscape simulation model (LANDIS PRO) to predict avian relative abundance. We considered multiple climate scenarios and forest management scenarios focused on carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change over 100 years.

Results

Management had a greater impact on avian abundance (almost 50% change under some scenarios) than climate (<3% change) and only early successional and coniferous forest showed significant change in percent cover across time. The northern bobwhite was the only species that changed in abundance due to climate-induced changes in vegetation. Northern bobwhite, prairie warbler, and blue-winged warbler generally increased in response to warming temperatures but prairie warbler exhibited a non-linear response and began to decline as summer maximum temperatures exceeded 36 °C at the end of the century.

Conclusion

Linking empirical models with process-based landscape change models can be an effective way to predict climate change and management impacts on wildlife, but time frames greater than 100 years may be required to see climate related effects. We suggest that future research carefully consider species-specific effects and interactions between management and climate.

     

Impacts of landscape changes on local and regional climate: a systematic review

Landscape Ecology - Studies have shown that land use and land cover change (LUCC) has myriad impacts on local and regional climate. Synthesizing the recent findings in this field helps advance...     

Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0–10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25–35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30–45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.     

Floodplain ecosystem response to climate variability and land-cover and land-use change in Lower Missouri River basin

This contribution aims at characterizing the extreme responses of Lower Missouri River basin ecosystems to land use modification and climate change over a 30-year temporal extent, using long term Landsat data archives spanning from 1975 to 2010. The inter-annual coefficient of variation (CoV) of normalized difference vegetation index was used as a measure of vegetation dynamics to address ecological consequences associated with climate change and the impact of land-cover/land-use change. The slope of a linear regression of inter-annual CoV over the entire time span was used as a sustainability indicator to assess the trend of vegetation dynamics from 1975 to 2010. Deduced vegetation dynamics were then associated with precipitation patterns, land surface temperature, and the impact of levees on alluvial hydrologic partitioning and river channelization reflecting the links between society and natural systems. The results show, a higher inter-annual accumulated vegetation index, and lower inter-annual CoV distributed over the uplands remaining virtually stable over the time frame investigated; relatively low vegetation index with larger CoV was observed over lowlands, indicating that climate change was not the only factor affecting ecosystem alterations in the Missouri River floodplain. We cautiously conclude that river channelization, suburbanization and agricultural activities were the possible potential driving forces behind vegetation cover alteration and habitat fragmentation on the Lower Missouri River floodplain.     

Developing a multi-scale visualisation framework for use in climate change response

Climate change is predicted to impact countries, regions and localities differently. However, common to the predicted impacts is a global trend toward increased levels of carbon dioxide and rising sea levels. Governments and communities need to take into account the likely impacts of climate on the landscape, both built and natural. There is a growing and significant body of climate change research. Much of this information produced by domain experts for a range of disciplines is complex and difficult for planners, decision makers and communities to act upon. The need to communicate often complex scientific information which can be used to assist in the planning cycle is a key challenge. This paper draws from a range of international examples of the use of visualisation in the context of landscape planning to communicate climate change impact and adaptation options within the context of the planning cycle. Missing from the literature, however, is a multi-scalar approach which allows decision makers, planners and communities to seamlessly explore scenarios at their special level of interest, as well as to collectively understand what is driving these at a larger scale, and what the implications are at ever more local levels. Visualisation tools such as digital globes provide one way to bring together multi-scaled spatial–temporal datasets. We present an initial development with this goal in mind. Future research is required to determine the best tools for communicating particular complex scientific data and also to better understand how visualisation can be used to improve the landscape planning process.     

Revision and application of the LINKAGES model to simulate forest growth in central hardwood landscapes in response to climate change

Context

Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest products at regional, landscape and global scales.

Objectives

LINKAGES 2.2 was revised to create LINKAGES 3.0 and used it to evaluate tree species growth potential and total biomass production under alternative climate scenarios. This information is needed to understand species potential under future climate and to parameterize forest landscape models (FLMs) used to evaluate forest succession under climate change.

Methods

We simulated total tree biomass and responses of individual tree species in each of the 74 ecological subsections across the central hardwood region of the United States under current climate and projected climate at the end of the century from two general circulation models and two representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.

Results

Forest composition and abundance varied by ecological subsection with more dramatic changes occurring with greater changes in temperature and precipitation and on soils with lower water holding capacity. Biomass production across the region followed patterns of soil quality.

Conclusions

Linkages 3.0 predicted realistic responses to soil and climate gradients and its application was a useful approach for considering growth potential and maximum growing space under future climates. We suggest Linkages 3.0 can also can used to inform parameter estimates in FLMs such as species establishment and maximum growing space.

     

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

Context

Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.

Objectives

The goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.

Methods

We conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.

Results

We uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.

Conclusions

Future distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

     

The landscape ecology of large disturbances in the design and management of nature reserves

Large disturbances such as fires and floods are landscape processes that may alter the structure of landscapes in nature reserves. Landscape structure may in turn influence the viability of species and the functioning of ecosystems. Past reserve design and management strategies have been focussed on species and ecosystems rather than on landscape-scale processes, such as disturbance.An essential feature of a natural disturbance regime is the variation in disturbance attributes (e.g., size, timing, intensity, spatial location). Although some past reserve management policies have included natural disturbances, perpetuating disturbance variation has not been the explicit goal of either reserve design or management.To design a reserve to perpetuate the natural disturbance process requires consideration of: (1) the size of the reserve in relation to maximum expected disturbance size, (2) the location of the reserve in relation to favored disturbance initiation and export zones and in relation to spatial variation in the disturbance regime, and (3) the feasibility of disturbance control at reserve boundaries, or in reserve buffers.Disturbance management possibilities are constrained by the design of the reserve and the reserve goals. Where a natural disturbance regime is not feasible, then it is important that the managed disturbance regime mimic historical variation in disturbance sizes and other attributes as well as possible. Manipulating structure on the landscape scale to restore landscapes thought to have been altered by historical disturbance control is premature given our understanding of spatial disturbance processes in landscapes.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land cover: grassland birds are more vulnerable to climate change

Context

Climate change is not occurring over a homogeneous landscape and the quantity and quality of available land cover will likely affect the way species respond to climate change. The influence of land cover on species’ responses to climate change, however, is likely to differ depending on habitat type and composition.

Objectives

Our goal was to investigate responses of forest and grassland breeding birds to over 20 years of climate change across varying gradients of forest and grassland habitat. Specifically, we investigated whether (i) increasing amounts of available land cover modify responses of forest and grassland-dependent birds to changing climate and (ii) the effect of increasing land cover amount differs for forest and grassland birds.

Methods

We used Bayesian spatially-varying intercept models to evaluate species- and community-level responses of 30 forest and 10 grassland birds to climate change across varying amounts of their associated land cover types.

Results

Responses of forest birds to climate change were weak and constant across a gradient of forest cover. Conversely, grassland birds responded strongly to changing climatic conditions. Specifically, increasing temperatures led to higher probabilities of localized extinctions for grassland birds, and this effect was intensified in regions with low amounts of grassland cover.

Conclusions

Within the context of northeastern forests and grasslands, we conclude that forests serve as a possible buffer to the impacts of climate change on birds. Conversely, species occupying open, fragmented grassland areas might be particularly at risk of a changing climate due to the diminished buffering capacity of these ecosystems.

     

Recovery dynamics and climate change effects to future New England forests

Context

Forests throughout eastern North America continue to recover from broad-scale intensive land use that peaked in the nineteenth century. These forests provide essential goods and services at local to global scales. It is uncertain how recovery dynamics, the processes by which forests respond to past forest land use, will continue to influence future forest conditions. Climate change compounds this uncertainty.

Objectives

We explored how continued forest recovery dynamics affect forest biomass and species composition and how climate change may alter this trajectory.

Methods

Using a spatially explicit landscape simulation model incorporating an ecophysiological model, we simulated forest processes in New England from 2010 to 2110. We compared forest biomass and composition from simulations that used a continuation of the current climate to those from four separate global circulation models forced by a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5).

Results

Simulated forest change in New England was driven by continued recovery dynamics; without the influence of climate change forests accumulated 34 % more biomass and succeed to more shade tolerant species; Climate change resulted in 82 % more biomass but just nominal shifts in community composition. Most tree species increased AGB under climate change.

Conclusions

Continued recovery dynamics will have larger impacts than climate change on forest composition in New England. The large increases in biomass simulated under all climate scenarios suggest that climate regulation provided by the eastern forest carbon sink has potential to continue for at least a century.

     

The influence of landscape spatial configuration on nitrogen and phosphorus exports in agricultural catchments

Landscape Ecology - Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) exports from rural landscapes can cause eutrophication of inland and coastal waters. Few studies have investigated the influence of the spatial...     

气候资源变化对陕西省猕猴桃生产的影响分析

基于陕西省关中地区的陈仓、眉县、杨凌、周至、户县、长安、灞桥、蓝田、临渭、华阴、华县和陕南地区的城固、洋县、勉县、佛坪等15个称猴桃主产县区1961-2010年的气象资料,利用趋势分析、线性回归、突变检验等气候统计方法,重点分析该地区50年来影响猕猴桃生长发育的年平均气温、负积温、≥5℃年有效积温、≥10℃年有效积温、年降水量、4一10月猕猴桃生长期降水量等光热水资源的年际、周期以及时空分布变化趋势的规律与特点,分析了50年来气候资源变化对陕西省猕猴桃生产的影响。结果表明,猕猴桃主产县区热量资源增加明显,年平均气温和≥10℃年有效积温总体上呈现上升趋势,种植区初霜日推迟、终霜日提前,无霜期呈明显增加趋势。降水变化趋势不明显,而年日照时数呈现明显减少趋势。除降水外,光热资源的变化均发生了突变,且关中地区的变化比陕南地区较为显著。从气候变化的特点上看,关中地区的光热资源变化增加了称猴桃生产的不确定性,而汉中盆地的气候资源变化趋势相对较弱,建议在该区域可适度增加猕猴桃种植规模。同时,气候变化的加剧,极端天气事件明显增多,猕猴桃的萌芽期冻害、高温热害等由于全球变化引起的气象灾害发生频率也呈现明显增加趋势,为猕猴桃优质生产带来了很大的不确定性,因此后期针对猕猴桃主要气象灾害风险进行研究是关注的重点。     

Sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau of China

Context

Climate change has imposed tremendous impacts on ecosystem services. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts mainly focused on a basin or larger scale, or used limited time periods that largely ignore observations of long-term trends at a fine resolution, thereby affecting the recognition of climate change’s effect on ecosystem services.

Objectives

This study conducts a detailed and spatially explicit recognition of climate change’s effect on ecosystem services and provides an intuitive map for decision-making and climate change adaptation planning.

Methods

We used long-term time series of ecosystem service assessments and various future climate scenarios to quantify the sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.

Results

Carbon sequestration (CS) and habitat quality experience significant growth, while water retention did not show any trend. Sensitivity patterns of these ecosystem services vary largely. For CS, more than half of the pixels showed a positive sensitivity to climate change, even though the degree of sensitivity is not high. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in the exposure of ecosystem services to future climate changes, and high levels of future climate change increase the intensity of exposure.

Conclusions

This study illustrates the complex spatial association between ecosystem services and climatic drivers, and these findings can help optimize local response strategies in the context of global warming. For example, the existing protected areas have notable conservation gaps for disturbance of future climate change on ecosystem services, especially in the southeastern part of the study area.

     

A regional analysis of total nitrogen in an agricultural landscape

Techniques for modeling spatial variability in the loss, gain, and storage of total nitrogen (N) in an agricultural landscape were developed utilizing a geographic information system (GIS) based on the Map Analysis Package (C.D. Tomlin, Yale University). The study area is a well-monitored portion (upper 114.9 km²) of the Little River Watershed, located near Tifton, Georgia, U.S.A. On the basis of measured N in the soil and vegetation, and the gains and losses of N by stream discharge, fertilizer, precipitation, N fixation, crop harvest, etc., it was possible to quantify and map source and sink regions of Total N, and to calculate a mass balance of N for an entire year. Results indicate massive flows of N, especially from anthropogenic sources. However, for the watershed as a whole, the N is virtually in balance with a small accretion occurring mostly in the riparian zones. Stream discharge of total N indicates that this landscape is well-buffered against excessive losses of N despite the large agricultural inputs.     

Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, adaptation to climate change must be considered in the context of other driving forces that will cause farms of the future to look differently from today’s farms. In this paper we use a historical analysis of the influence of different drivers on farm structure, complemented with literature and stakeholder consultations, to assess future structural change of farms in a region under different plausible futures. As climate change is one of the drivers considered, this study thus puts climate change impact and adaptation into the context of other drivers. The province of Flevoland in the north of The Netherlands was used as case study, with arable farming as the main activity. To account for the heterogeneity of farms and to indicate possible directions of farm structural change, a farm typology was developed. Trends in past developments in farm types were analyzed with data from the Dutch agricultural census. The historical analysis allowed to detect the relative importance of driving forces that contributed to farm structural changes. Simultaneously, scenario assumptions about changes in these driving forces elaborated at global and European levels, were downscaled for Flevoland, to regional and farm type level in order to project impacts of drivers on farm structural change towards 2050. Input from stakeholders was also used to detail the downscaled scenarios and to derive historical and future relationships between drivers and farm structural change. These downscaled scenarios and future driver-farm structural change relationships were used to derive quantitative estimations of farm structural change at regional and farm type level in Flevoland. In addition, stakeholder input was used to also derive images of future farms in Flevoland. The estimated farm structural changes differed substantially between the two scenarios. Our estimations of farm structural change provide a proper context for assessing impacts of and adaptation to climate change in 2050 at crop and farm level.